Cedric Benson, 1600 yards & 16 TDs (1 Viewer)

[bengalbuck]

I predicted before the season that Cedric would be this year's Deangelo (Cedric was drafted in almost the exact same spot as Deangelo was in 2008) and after 3 games, I am more convinced than ever that I am right.

Here are 4 reasons he is good now:

1. His last 3 games of 2008, he had 84 carries, 355 yards and 1 TD plus 5 catches for 107 yards.

2. His first 3 games of 2009, he has 66 carries, 293 yards, 2 TDs plus 5 catches for 37 yards. (Note: 22 carries per game.) Over his last 6 games going back to last season, he is averaging over 25 touches per game and over 120 yards from scrimmage per game. That is starting to look less fluky with each passing game.

3. He is getting 80-90% of the carries. Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard are not a threat to steal touches. He is "the man" in Cincy. He looked very good down the stretch last year and has looked even better so far. The coaches, OL and team in general really seem to believe in him.

4. This is a whole different style of Cincy team. The defense is much improved and should be a legit top 10 defense. They will not have to throw the ball around like they did in the past. (Even as a homer, I see a somewhat down year for Carson and the passing game. Think past years of Eli/Rothlisberger numbers where the formula is D + running game and only throw a lot late if needed.)

Most importantly, here are 2 reasons he will be great down the stretch:

1. Bengals get their tough matchups out of the way early. By mid-season (game 9), they will have already faced both Pitt and Balt. twice. Look at weeks 11-16 (end of reg. season and fantasy playoffs):

11 Nov 22 @ OAK

12 Nov 29 CLE

13 Dec 6 DET

14 Dec 13 @ MIN

15 Dec 20 @ SDG

16 Dec 27 KAN

Minnesota is pretty tough and SD is okay, but there are some soft defenses in there. Plus, if the Bengals get up early, they are going to take the air out of the ball. Those are the same defenses Cedric tore up at the end of last season behind a much worse OL.

2. The one weak spot on the line so far has been RT. Mid-season that should change with Andre Smith likely being ready to take over. He may struggle a little with pass pro early on but should be a beast right away run blocking (like Jeff Otah was for Deangelo last year).

 

[Knobs]

Link to your prediction?

 

[bengalbuck]

Link to your prediction?

Made it on a different board, is it okay if I just cut and paste it? If so, here it is:Cedric Benson: ESPN has Cedric Benson rated as the 75th best overall and the 33rd best RB. I think that is way too low. In fact, I see a ton of similarities between Cedric Benson right now and last year's fantasy football MVP at the same time last year.Last year, one player had an unexpectedly great season and pretty much carried his fantasy football teams, DeAngelo Williams. DeAngelo led all RBs in TDs (18) and fantasy points overall. He scored 4 TDs in the first round of the FF playoffs. I remember that performance specifically because in my league, his team narrowly beat mine that week and went on to win the league (this happened all over FF). Last year at this time, ESPN fantasy football had Deangelo Williams rated as the 79th best overall and 34th best RB.Why was he so underrated last year? He was a former first round pick who had shown some bursts of real talent, but he had never really broken through. In fact at this time last year, his career season was 717 yards and 4 TDs. At this time last year, his team's offense was viewed as mediocre. The previous season they were in the bottom 5 in the NFL in points (7-9).I feel like I can make the case the Bengals and Cedric Benson are very similar for one BIG reason. I think Andre Smith could have the same impact on the Bengals offense as Jeff Otah did for the Panthers. There is nothing like a big, nasty, run blocking OL to make a RB look good. Shaun Alexander in his prime was good on his own, but running behind Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson didn't hurt. Last year going into the draft, Otah was viewed as a sloppy, fat OL with an embarrassingly slow 40 time. But on the field he just mauled people and thus was still picked high. His impact on the Carolina running game cannot be underestimated. I think once Andre Smith gets up to speed, in plenty of time for the fantasy playoffs (Bengals play terrible KC defense in the FF playoffs), the right side of the Bengals OL with Smith and big Bobbie Williams will make their RB look good. Looking at the individual players, Cedric Benson is also coming off his best season ever with 747 yards and 2 TDs. He is also a guy with real talent, top 5 pick pedigree who has taken a while for things to really click, but I think you could see it start to click over the last few games of 2008 and in what you have seen in the preseason games.Now, I'm not guaranteeing Benson is the best player overall this year or that I would take him #1. But 33rd RB? Really? Behind guys like Pierre Thomas, Lendale White, Jonathan Stewart, Derrick Ward, and Ray Rice who aren't anywhere near being full-time starters? I mean he has to at least be like the 25th best RB doesn't he?

 

[SleeperPix]

Link to your prediction?

 

[bengalbuck]

Link to your prediction?

Sorry, I am new to this board but have been playing FF for a long time. I will post the link. You will just have to trust me that I am the same person even though my username here is different than there. Anyway, here is the link:http://forum.go-bengals.com/index.php?show...mp;#entry796322

Also, FWIW, I didn't make this post as a pat on the back type thing to try to say I made a great prediction, it was more to alert everyone to his 2nd half potential. I would seriously think of targeting him in your leagues if you can because he can still be had relatively cheap.

I'd also say, I would keep him in mind going forward. The schedule the first half of the season for the Bengals is tough, so if you can try to get him in a month when they are through the tough stretch and getting Andre Smith back. I honestly think he could be the guy this year that swings a bunch of leagues because he could put up some monster games late like Deangelo did last year.

 

[sparkky]

I'm pretty happy to have Benson to plug in for Westy, Gore and Barber going down.

I was aware he did well after going to Cinci last year and kept him on 2 dynasty rosters. Today I got an offer of Shaub for Ced even up.

I NEVER thought I would say this but "I'm glad I have Ced and JJones to plug in for injuries and byes".

 

[jafo]

It makes you wonder if Benson would be putting up even better numbers had Andre Smith not gotten hurt.

 

[bengalbuck]

I'm pretty happy to have Benson to plug in for Westy, Gore and Barber going down. I was aware he did well after going to Cinci last year and kept him on 2 dynasty rosters. Today I got an offer of Shaub for Ced even up. I NEVER thought I would say this but "I'm glad I have Ced and JJones to plug in for injuries and byes".

You know what is killing me? I really was high on Cedric (obviously) but got a couple RBs early and badly needed WRs and took Eddie Royal in the 6th, gambling that Cedric would get back to me in the 7th. It didn't happen and I am kicking myself for it. I'm an idiot and I didn't even take my own advice....so, really take this thread as more of a prediction going forward than anything else.

 

[bengalbuck]

It makes you wonder if Benson would be putting up even better numbers had Andre Smith not gotten hurt.

I really think so. I mentioned this briefly, but to go into more detail, the fill-in at RT has been Anthony Collins. His rep is as a finesse guy who is a good pass blocker (started at LT some in 08) but not much of a run blocker. He has had some struggles and the backup, Dennis Roland, an UDFA has also gotten some reps. I think there is little doubt that Smith will be an upgrade as a run blocker. Whether he can handle the speed rushers right away is a concern, but he should almost undoubtedly be a huge improvement as a run blocker. And the blocking has been pretty good already against some decent defenses...

 

[SleeperPix]

Well I hope you are right

 

[Alex96]

I'm pretty happy to have Benson to plug in for Westy, Gore and Barber going down. I was aware he did well after going to Cinci last year and kept him on 2 dynasty rosters. Today I got an offer of Shaub for Ced even up. I NEVER thought I would say this but "I'm glad I have Ced and JJones to plug in for injuries and byes".

You know what is killing me? I really was high on Cedric (obviously) but got a couple RBs early and badly needed WRs and took Eddie Royal in the 6th, gambling that Cedric would get back to me in the 7th. It didn't happen and I am kicking myself for it. I'm an idiot and I didn't even take my own advice....so, really take this thread as more of a prediction going forward than anything else.

You fully believed that Benson would have 1,600 yards and 16 TD and you couldn't pull the trigger on him in the 6th round?

 

[Knobs]

If they keep giving him 30ish touches each week he'll stay a great option.

 

[AcerFC]

Well I hope you are right

 

[Knobs]

Welcome to fbg's.

 

[All_Day28]

Traded Ray Rice for him just before the Steelers game, don't regret it one bit. I'm really looking forward to his cake schedule down the stretch.

 

[Hatfield]

If they keep giving him 30ish touches each week he'll stay a great option.

I drafted Benson in the 4th round this year of a 14-team league. The main reason was that Cincy was planning on using him as a workhorse so I thought there was value in a guy that would average 20 touches a game with so many teams utilizing at least 2 RBs regularly. I was widely heckled on draft night but so far so good.

 

[twr]

If they keep giving him 30ish touches each week he'll stay a great option.

I drafted Benson in the 4th round this year of a 14-team league. The main reason was that Cincy was planning on using him as a workhorse so I thought there was value in a guy that would average 20 touches a game with so many teams utilizing at least 2 RBs regularly. I was widely heckled on draft night but so far so good.

i hate to say it... but damn hes looked explosive so far this year..

 

[bengalbuck]

I'm pretty happy to have Benson to plug in for Westy, Gore and Barber going down. I was aware he did well after going to Cinci last year and kept him on 2 dynasty rosters. Today I got an offer of Shaub for Ced even up. I NEVER thought I would say this but "I'm glad I have Ced and JJones to plug in for injuries and byes".

You know what is killing me? I really was high on Cedric (obviously) but got a couple RBs early and badly needed WRs and took Eddie Royal in the 6th, gambling that Cedric would get back to me in the 7th. It didn't happen and I am kicking myself for it. I'm an idiot and I didn't even take my own advice....so, really take this thread as more of a prediction going forward than anything else.

You fully believed that Benson would have 1,600 yards and 16 TD and you couldn't pull the trigger on him in the 6th round?

Admittedly, it was stupid. I was thinking I could get him one round later and it is a start 2 RBs (no flex) and I had MJD and Ronnie Brown already. Still, regret it. Should have taken him and traded Ronnie B. for a WR. I also was just a little bit hesitant because I was worried I was overvaluing him because he was a Bengal. Should have just trusted what I saw.

 

[Largie]

got him in the 7th....dusting him off the shelf this week....for good.

 

[flapgreen]

Good job guys. I'm glad you picked him so high. That changes everything. Benson really is a good back. Took me a long time to see it. What a stud. Best in the league

 

[Ray_T]

I predicted before the season that Cedric would be this year's Deangelo (Cedric was drafted in almost the exact same spot as Deangelo was in 2008) and after 3 games, I am more convinced than ever that I am right.

Here are 4 reasons he is good now:

1. His last 3 games of 2008, he had 84 carries, 355 yards and 1 TD plus 5 catches for 107 yards.

2. His first 3 games of 2009, he has 66 carries, 293 yards, 2 TDs plus 5 catches for 37 yards. (Note: 22 carries per game.) Over his last 6 games going back to last season, he is averaging over 25 touches per game and over 120 yards from scrimmage per game. That is starting to look less fluky with each passing game.

3. He is getting 80-90% of the carries. Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard are not a threat to steal touches. He is "the man" in Cincy. He looked very good down the stretch last year and has looked even better so far. The coaches, OL and team in general really seem to believe in him.

4. This is a whole different style of Cincy team. The defense is much improved and should be a legit top 10 defense. They will not have to throw the ball around like they did in the past. (Even as a homer, I see a somewhat down year for Carson and the passing game. Think past years of Eli/Rothlisberger numbers where the formula is D + running game and only throw a lot late if needed.)

Most importantly, here are 2 reasons he will be great down the stretch:

1. Bengals get their tough matchups out of the way early. By mid-season (game 9), they will have already faced both Pitt and Balt. twice. Look at weeks 11-16 (end of reg. season and fantasy playoffs):

11 Nov 22 @ OAK

12 Nov 29 CLE

13 Dec 6 DET

14 Dec 13 @ MIN

15 Dec 20 @ SDG

16 Dec 27 KAN

Minnesota is pretty tough and SD is okay, but there are some soft defenses in there. Plus, if the Bengals get up early, they are going to take the air out of the ball. Those are the same defenses Cedric tore up at the end of last season behind a much worse OL.

2. The one weak spot on the line so far has been RT. Mid-season that should change with Andre Smith likely being ready to take over. He may struggle a little with pass pro early on but should be a beast right away run blocking (like Jeff Otah was for Deangelo last year).

get serious.the bengals O-line isnt good enough to get that many rushing yards with any RB in the NFL in their backfield.

Benson is good for a maximum of 1200 yards. and that's only if everything goes right.

 

[NatronIsMean]

As a Bears fan and a long time hopeful on Cedric, he DOES NOT have DeAngelo's talent, plain and simple. Even watching his Texas highlights I just wasn't that impressed. He's a big guy that goes down on first contact often. Now, he's running with newfound life and I'm TRULY happy for him. That said, he is who we thought he was. Hat tip to Denny Green. He's getting solid holes, making solid cuts.

At BEST, he's Ryan Grant in his breakout year. That was pretty good, but we all know now that Grant did well more by situation than by talent.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Have been impressed with him since the moment he's joined the Bengals. Even with the pedestrian ypc last year, the guy was running hard. Was quite shocked he was iin any sort of shape coming off the street.

He's shown a ton more wiggle than he ever showed with the Bears. Looks a lot more fit as well.

He was garbage with the Bears and still wears that underachiever tag from those years, but I've been thoroughly impressed. Much quicker (more sudden movements) and better receiver than he was previously given credit for.

Would be surprised if he doesn't put up Rudi Johnson #'s [barring injury] with more receptions.

 

[Ray_T]

Have been impressed with him since the moment he's joined the Bengals. Even with the pedestrian ypc last year, the guy was running hard. Was quite shocked he was iin any sort of shape coming off the street.He's shown a ton more wiggle than he ever showed with the Bears. Looks a lot more fit as well.He was garbage with the Bears and still wears that underachiever tag from those years, but I've been thoroughly impressed. Much quicker (more sudden movements) and better receiver than he was previously given credit for.Would be surprised if he doesn't put up Rudi Johnson #'s [barring injury] with more receptions.

Hey I will agree he is a better player than he was with the bears. but he hasnt improved to the extent that I'd label him a stud.he has improved (likely through off season conditioning and through better attitude) from a less than adequate starter to adequate, Right now I would label him as an average starter. I wouldnt go any further than this right now.

 

[bengalbuck]

Have been impressed with him since the moment he's joined the Bengals. Even with the pedestrian ypc last year, the guy was running hard. Was quite shocked he was iin any sort of shape coming off the street.He's shown a ton more wiggle than he ever showed with the Bears. Looks a lot more fit as well.He was garbage with the Bears and still wears that underachiever tag from those years, but I've been thoroughly impressed. Much quicker (more sudden movements) and better receiver than he was previously given credit for.Would be surprised if he doesn't put up Rudi Johnson #'s [barring injury] with more receptions.

Hey I will agree he is a better player than he was with the bears. but he hasnt improved to the extent that I'd label him a stud.he has improved (likely through off season conditioning and through better attitude) from a less than adequate starter to adequate, Right now I would label him as an average starter. I wouldnt go any further than this right now.

It is a relatively small sample size, but over the last 6 games he has approximately 650 yards rushing and 150 yards receiving. That is better than "adequate starter" numbers. That's 13 ppg not even counting the TDs.It is also my theory that the numbers will improve when the schedule becomes easy from game 10-16 and when Andre Smith is inserted into the lineup.Lastly, I agree with those that say he isn't god's gift to RBs but a lot of fantasy football comes down to judging the OL and the Bengals OL has looked great so far with the only weak spot being RT, which is likely to significantly improve in about 4-6 weeks....

 

[Julius Seizure]

I've got Benson as well. If I could get Steven Jackson for him in a PPR league should I do it? Or stick with the guy with a good offense?

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Also to note he's running with better vision. I questioned with the Bears if he closed his eyes a lot while running [in all seriousness] He had a nice cutback run this past weekend that looked like a prime Edgerrin James-like run.

I distinctly remember one run last year where he absolutely trucked Polomalu and remember thinking is this the same Cedric Benson because he never ever ran with that determination with the Bears.

While he's not as talented of runner as Williams IMO, I wouldn't be shocked if he leads a number of teams to fantasy titles like Williams. He looks to have a real nice schedule as mentioned above.

He's a unspectacular workman-like RB that has quite a bit of upside to him with his situation.

 

[jafo]

Have been impressed with him since the moment he's joined the Bengals. Even with the pedestrian ypc last year, the guy was running hard. Was quite shocked he was iin any sort of shape coming off the street.He's shown a ton more wiggle than he ever showed with the Bears. Looks a lot more fit as well.He was garbage with the Bears and still wears that underachiever tag from those years, but I've been thoroughly impressed. Much quicker (more sudden movements) and better receiver than he was previously given credit for.Would be surprised if he doesn't put up Rudi Johnson #'s [barring injury] with more receptions.

Hey I will agree he is a better player than he was with the bears. but he hasnt improved to the extent that I'd label him a stud.he has improved (likely through off season conditioning and through better attitude) from a less than adequate starter to adequate, Right now I would label him as an average starter. I wouldnt go any further than this right now.

He's the 10th leading RB for point totals in PPR leagues. I'd call that more than adequate for a 5th to 7th round pick. Especially for the flex position he was likely drafted for.

 

[sparkky]

he's also one of the few rb that doesn't share touches to a big degree. or at least he hasn't to this point. he's had 66 of 80 attempts, palmer has 4.

 

[HoTnickZ]

I'd say sell high. Lots of risk there.

 

[Otis]

He's killing my Bernie Scott experiment

 

[BoulderBob]

I'll say what all Bear fans are thinking...

Who is this man and what have the Bengals done with the real Cedric Benson. I'll admit being wrong about Benson, he has obviously worked extremely hard over the past year, and is running like a man possesed. Apparently he has found his motivation, and he looks like the back most GM's thought he would be after his stellar high-school and collegiate career in the state of Texas.

There is no question in my mind that Benson is running like an elite back right now, and while it's probably a one-year wonder type of deal, I'd ride this train all the way to the FF playoffs.

 

[SteevieG]

I'll say what all Bear fans are thinking...

Who is this man and what have the Bengals done with the real Cedric Benson. I'll admit being wrong about Benson, he has obviously worked extremely hard over the past year, and is running like a man possesed. Apparently he has found his motivation, and he looks like the back most GM's thought he would be after his stellar high-school and collegiate career in the state of Texas.

There is no question in my mind that Benson is running like an elite back right now, and while it's probably a one-year wonder type of deal, I'd ride this train all the way to the FF playoffs.

That is the intention...

 

[HoTnickZ]

Let me clarify by saying sell high and there is lot of risk.

Benson's value is mainly tied to Palmer's health and the threat of the pass. I'm a Palmer owner but I'm not fully confident he will stay injury free.

 

[jafo]

Let me clarify by saying sell high and there is lot of risk. Benson's value is mainly tied to Palmer's health and the threat of the pass. I'm a Palmer owner but I'm not fully confident he will stay injury free.

And what was Palmer's health at the end of last season when Benson was tearing it up?

 

[el-gato-grande]

Traded Ray Rice for him just before the Steelers game, don't regret it one bit. I'm really looking forward to his cake schedule down the stretch.

Just did a similar trade in my CBS league - traded Rice and Bowe for Benson and Hester. Plugging Benson in as my RB2 right between ADP and Williams. Or maybe Williams is my RB2. Either way, I'm feeling pretty good about my RB tandem.I'm thinking about 1,200 -1,300 yards and 10 TDs for Benson. That means he would only have to average 90 yards rushing per game over a 14 game schedule (giving him two games to sit out if he gets dinged being the workhorse back). I think that is doable given what we've seen from him and the Bengals line so far this year. He will blow up against weaker run defenses and post average to decent numbers against good teams.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Let me clarify by saying sell high and there is lot of risk. Benson's value is mainly tied to Palmer's health and the threat of the pass. I'm a Palmer owner but I'm not fully confident he will stay injury free.

And what was Palmer's health at the end of last season when Benson was tearing it up?

Oh you mean the 2 game sample size against Cle and KC when they were out of it?He'll be above average but when I say sell high, I mean to owners thinking he's going to spring for 1600 and 16.

 

[NoCheese]

Just pulled a trade to acquire Benson in a TD heavy league (Parker/Hester if anyone cares) I'm not quite drinking the 1500/15 kool-aid, but I think 1200/10 is in order. The Bengals are 2-1, should be 3-0 (fluke Denver TD to Stokley), and running the ball very well. Benson just scored vs. Pitt, gets 85% of the carries, and plays Cleveland this week. Doubt he'll be cheaper after that game. He's likely somebody's RB3 and if you can get him now while there is still skepticism, it's a good move. He ran hard last year, too, but didn't have a healthy Palmer. I realize he has 1 more game at Pitt and 2 vs. Baltimore.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Link to your prediction?

Made it on a different board, is it okay if I just cut and paste it? If so, here it is:Cedric Benson: ESPN has Cedric Benson rated as the 75th best overall and the 33rd best RB. I think that is way too low. In fact, I see a ton of similarities between Cedric Benson right now and last year's fantasy football MVP at the same time last year.Last year, one player had an unexpectedly great season and pretty much carried his fantasy football teams, DeAngelo Williams. DeAngelo led all RBs in TDs (18) and fantasy points overall. He scored 4 TDs in the first round of the FF playoffs. I remember that performance specifically because in my league, his team narrowly beat mine that week and went on to win the league (this happened all over FF). Last year at this time, ESPN fantasy football had Deangelo Williams rated as the 79th best overall and 34th best RB.Why was he so underrated last year? He was a former first round pick who had shown some bursts of real talent, but he had never really broken through. In fact at this time last year, his career season was 717 yards and 4 TDs. At this time last year, his team's offense was viewed as mediocre. The previous season they were in the bottom 5 in the NFL in points (7-9).I feel like I can make the case the Bengals and Cedric Benson are very similar for one BIG reason. I think Andre Smith could have the same impact on the Bengals offense as Jeff Otah did for the Panthers. There is nothing like a big, nasty, run blocking OL to make a RB look good. Shaun Alexander in his prime was good on his own, but running behind Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson didn't hurt. Last year going into the draft, Otah was viewed as a sloppy, fat OL with an embarrassingly slow 40 time. But on the field he just mauled people and thus was still picked high. His impact on the Carolina running game cannot be underestimated. I think once Andre Smith gets up to speed, in plenty of time for the fantasy playoffs (Bengals play terrible KC defense in the FF playoffs), the right side of the Bengals OL with Smith and big Bobbie Williams will make their RB look good. Looking at the individual players, Cedric Benson is also coming off his best season ever with 747 yards and 2 TDs. He is also a guy with real talent, top 5 pick pedigree who has taken a while for things to really click, but I think you could see it start to click over the last few games of 2008 and in what you have seen in the preseason games.Now, I'm not guaranteeing Benson is the best player overall this year or that I would take him #1. But 33rd RB? Really? Behind guys like Pierre Thomas, Lendale White, Jonathan Stewart, Derrick Ward, and Ray Rice who aren't anywhere near being full-time starters? I mean he has to at least be like the 25th best RB doesn't he?

Predicting him to be at least the RB25 isn't really that impressive. In my other thread I mentioned I though he was a darkgorse top 5-10 guy. But not even I thought he's be rb3, especially with a game vs the in that sample.

 

[buck naked]

He's killing my Bernie Scott experiment

Me too. I think I have Scott in 10+ leagues.