Chad #85 is Too Inconsistent! (1 Viewer)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Points scored in the FBGs contest so far this year: 14.70--19.10--10.40--17.40--16.40--15.30

 

[jurb26]

Yeah, so?

 

[identikit]

Yeah, so?

 

[ttea]

I thought most believed he'd have a very strong season?

 

[SSOG]

I thought most believed he'd have a very strong season?

The point wdcrob was making is that Ochocinco has developed a reputation as an unbelievably inconsistent scorer after the 2007 and 2006 seasons. In 2007, he had 10 games under 10 points and 3 games over 25 points. 2006 was even worse- he had 10 games under 10 points, 14 games under 14 points... and two games over 35 points (which happened to come back-to-back).Of course, it was a bit of an unfair reputation. In 2003, 2004, and 2005, he was very consistent. When looking at his career as a whole, 2006 and 2007 look more like a fluke than any meaningful predictor of future performance.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Good Q Jurb... I was hoping someone would ask.

A lot of superstitious FF players have argued for the last couple seasons that Chad Johnson was "too inconsistent."

I was making the point that there is no such thing as a "consistent" player. There are players with higher PPG and players with lower PPG.

Players with higher PPG will crank out a score that clears any arbitrary threshold you might set more often than players with lower PPG.

And there are players who will have a lower standard deviation from their mean PPG in a given year. But those same players are no more likely to have a low standard deviation again the following year.

There just aren't any consistently 'consistent' players. The idea is hooey.

 

[DoubleG]

Good Q Jurb... I was hoping someone would ask.

A lot of superstitious FF players have argued for the last couple seasons that Chad Johnson was "too inconsistent."

I was making the point that there is no such thing as a "consistent" player. There are players with higher PPG and players with lower PPG.

Players with higher PPG will crank out a score that clears any arbitrary threshold you might set more often than players with lower PPG.

And there are players who will have a lower standard deviation from their mean PPG in a given year. But those same players are no more likely to have a low standard deviation again the following year.

There just aren't any consistently 'consistent' players. The idea is hooey - unless your name is Santana Moss.

FYP

 

[SSOG]

There just aren't any consistently 'consistent' players. The idea is hooey.

Not necessarily. I think that, over a long enough timeline, possession WRs will be more consistent than deep threats who score a comparable number of points per game.

 

[gonzobill5]

Good Q Jurb... I was hoping someone would ask.A lot of superstitious FF players have argued for the last couple seasons that Chad Johnson was "too inconsistent."I was making the point that there is no such thing as a "consistent" player. There are players with higher PPG and players with lower PPG. Players with higher PPG will crank out a score that clears any arbitrary threshold you might set more often than players with lower PPG. And there are players who will have a lower standard deviation from their mean PPG in a given year. But those same players are no more likely to have a low standard deviation again the following year. There just aren't any consistently 'consistent' players. The idea is hooey.

The idea that there is no such thing as consistency is hooey.

 

[identikit]

Good Q Jurb... I was hoping someone would ask.

A lot of superstitious FF players have argued for the last couple seasons that Chad Johnson was "too inconsistent."

I was making the point that there is no such thing as a "consistent" player. There are players with higher PPG and players with lower PPG.

Players with higher PPG will crank out a score that clears any arbitrary threshold you might set more often than players with lower PPG.

And there are players who will have a lower standard deviation from their mean PPG in a given year. But those same players are no more likely to have a low standard deviation again the following year.

There just aren't any consistently 'consistent' players. The idea is hooey - unless your name is Santana Moss.

FYP

I think I have the first couple letters figured out...

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

There just aren't any consistently 'consistent' players. The idea is hooey.

Not necessarily. I think that, over a long enough timeline, possession WRs will be more consistent than deep threats who score a comparable number of points per game.

I was making the argument for Chad-like guys - #1 backs and WR types. Should have said so.I suspect you're right if you're talking bout Devery Henderson vs. Bobby Wade or someone like that.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I may play with this some more later, but here's a good (anecdotal) example. I just picked the most extreme pair I could think of...

Randy Moss vs Wes Welker

In 2007

Moss averaged 24.08 PPG and Welker averaged 17.56

With standard deviations of 10.72 and 9.82

So Moss's standard deviation was 45% of his weekly score, and Welker's was 56%

And you actually have the deep threat, Moss, putting up the more consistent scores.

But in 2008

Moss averaged 14.49 PPG and Welker averaged 15.57

With standard deviations of 9.61 and 5.78

So Moss's standard deviation was 66% of his weekly score, and Welker's was 37%

Which is more in line with what you'd expect (the possession WR being more consistent) - but completely counter to the previous year.

Admittedly this is just one example, but the fact that Moss was more consistent than Welker in even a single year makes me wonder if there's anything to the idea of consistency for even for the extreme Y/C outliers.

 

[SSOG]

There just aren't any consistently 'consistent' players. The idea is hooey.

Not necessarily. I think that, over a long enough timeline, possession WRs will be more consistent than deep threats who score a comparable number of points per game.

I was making the argument for Chad-like guys - #1 backs and WR types. Should have said so.I suspect you're right if you're talking bout Devery Henderson vs. Bobby Wade or someone like that.

Even among elite producers, I'd expect a Larry Fitzgerald to be more consistent than a Vincent Jackson, even if both go for 1300/10, simply because VJax will get his 1300 on 80 receptions and Fitz will get his 1300 on 100 receptions.

 

[EBF]

It was always a myth. Had him on my team from 2003- in one league and he was incredibly consistent for the first 3-4 seasons.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

SSOG... intuitively I think you should be right (and I should be wrong) about this. But I'm not seeing it yet. I'm going to come back and mess with it some more later.

Just in case... do we have a smiley face with its foot in its mouth?

 

[Das Boot]

Chad can't even be consistent about whether he's consistent or inconsistent from year to year.