Chase for Mahomes & Kyren (1 Viewer)

[loslakes]

Original offer got changed to this. 12 team H2H league. Full PPR. 6 points for ALL TD's. All QB's get 1/2 Point Per Completion.

We keep 4. I am currently keeping: Lamb, Chase, Gibbs & Metcalf.
If I did this, I would keep Mahomes & Kyren over Chase & Metcalf.

Based on my best guess, the top QB's that won't be kept are: Love, A Richardson, Tua, Purdy & Rogers. So I can definitely grab one of those guys if I don't do it, but my guess is Love & Richardson are gone before my pick.
Then RB's are even worse. Maybe Cook, Walker or possible Achane, but I doubt it.

So if I go in with my QB and 2 stud RB's, along with top 5 stud WR, I think I am in better shape. There will actually be some decent WR's left off as well as the couple stud rookies. So I think I can make that up easier than trying to get a good QB & RB in draft.

Am I overthinking it?

 

[Big Nate]

With it being 6pt passing TDs and .5 for completions (I'm not familiar with this scoring) I would assume the good/elite QBs put up some big numbers. Mahomes had a down year last year as he didn't have anyone to throw the ball to until later in the year. Kelce finally got healthy and they started to use Rice as more of an every down receiver. I think this is the buy "low" opportunity on Mahomes if you want to go for it.

I'm not a big fan of Kyren but he's going to be the lead back for sure unless he's not healthy. Maybe you can grab Corum as a cuff later in the draft. I think to many people are getting scared off Kyren but the only way he isn't the starter is if he's hurt.

The one thing I would try to do is trade Metcalf - assuming you can trade for pick(s)? Even a later draft pick gets you something rather than throwing a starter back into the draft. Look at some of the weaker teams/keepers in the league and see if you can snag a 2nd or even a 3rd round pick for Metcalf. You will have to do some work trying to sell him but it will be nice when you have 2 picks in one of the rounds.

So, as you say if RBs are scarce I don't mind trying to get Kyren as his perceived value has dropped and you lock up a stud QB who has many more weapons this year (Hollywood and Worthy). I think this might be Mahomes best group of pass catchers he has played with in a long time.

Also as you mentioned the WRs are deep this year. You can always snag another WR with your next couple picks and not have to reach or worry about who you have at RB2.

 

[Gally]

With it being 6pt passing TDs and .5 for completions (I'm not familiar with this scoring) I would assume the good/elite QBs put up some big numbers.

Sure but then all QB's get a boost so in comparison none of them do. The only thing I have found that 6 pt for all TD's does is lower the value on running QB's because their 6 pt rushing TD advantage goes away. Now it's all about total TD's for QB's.

I think this is the buy "low" opportunity on Mahomes if you want to go for it.

But this isn't a buy low on Mahomes if you have to give up Chase to do it. In a 1 QB league I would much rather keep Chase and Metcalf over Mahomes and Kyren. I have my worries about Kyren holding up and Mahomes is great but in a 1 QB league you can make the QB position work. He will be fine with one of the QB's he said would be available. I don't make this deal.

 

[Big Nate]

With it being 6pt passing TDs and .5 for completions (I'm not familiar with this scoring) I would assume the good/elite QBs put up some big numbers.

Sure but then all QB's get a boost so in comparison none of them do. The only thing I have found that 6 pt for all TD's does is lower the value on running QB's because their 6 pt rushing TD advantage goes away. Now it's all about total TD's for QB's.

I think this is the buy "low" opportunity on Mahomes if you want to go for it.

But this isn't a buy low on Mahomes if you have to give up Chase to do it. In a 1 QB league I would much rather keep Chase and Metcalf over Mahomes and Kyren. I have my worries about Kyren holding up and Mahomes is great but in a 1 QB league you can make the QB position work. He will be fine with one of the QB's he said would be available. I don't make this deal.

Definitely some good points there and it does make a difference for me if he can trade Metcalf to get an extra pick. I don't know his league but I did that a lot in my 3 and 4 keeper leagues - if I can make a deal and then in return flip one of my extra keepers is helps to build a solid and deep team potentially getting another top player. I'd always actively try to work a deal with those teams that don't have a solid 3-4 keepers.

It doesn't make sense if he has to do this deal and throw back Metcalf for nothing when he could just keep him.

 

[football fan]

Actually I kind of agree with some of what each the previous posters stated, but my bottom line is I would not make this deal as it is offered.

I do agree with Mahomes has some big potential for a huge year scoring in fantasy football because I believe KC WRs are getting faster which can really open the field up for the KC passing offense.

I also agree with Chase for Mahomes is no buy low (but the last two years, Chase really hasn't played like his rookie year - so I do have some mild concerns about Chase's future fantasy value as a consistent STUD WR), and Kyren, may provide value in the short run, but he is a starter because of no other completion on the Rams roster, so I see him as more a stop gap or future role player than a STUD RB.

I could perceive this as a good deal for you if one of two things happen: 1) if you counter his offer and get someone better than Kyren because I see his future fantasy value taking a good hit soon, or dealing Metcalf for a draft pick of reasonable value.

Right or wrong, this is my opinion.

 

[Tonycarpenter]

Original offer got changed to this. 12 team H2H league. Full PPR. 6 points for ALL TD's. All QB's get 1/2 Point Per Completion.

We keep 4. I am currently keeping: Lamb, Chase, Gibbs & Metcalf.
If I did this, I would keep Mahomes & Kyren over Chase & Metcalf.

Based on my best guess, the top QB's that won't be kept are: Love, A Richardson, Tua, Purdy & Rogers. So I can definitely grab one of those guys if I don't do it, but my guess is Love & Richardson are gone before my pick.
Then RB's are even worse. Maybe Cook, Walker or possible Achane, but I doubt it.

So if I go in with my QB and 2 stud RB's, along with top 5 stud WR, I think I am in better shape. There will actually be some decent WR's left off as well as the couple stud rookies. So I think I can make that up easier than trying to get a good QB & RB in draft.

Am I overthinking it?

I don't love Kyren.

 

[Tonycarpenter]

My thought it don't do it. Richardson and Love should be able to compete with mahomes. Purdy Tua are super efficient. Tier down but dependable. I also believe RBs have turnover. Guys will have opportunity mid season due to injury and just draft capital