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Chase's Peyton Manning analysis (1 Viewer)

Puhleeze, I know this site is mecca for Manning worshipers, but Peyton (playoff choke artist) Manning 2nd best playoff qb ever?

Not all that unexpected considering the source; kinda like global warming devotees manufacturing formulas to meet pre-conceived notions. GIGO, not sure Manning even makes the top 10 of playoff qbs on an unbiased (real) ratings system; you know, one based on reality and what actually matters most, such as wins, losses, td's, int's, qb ratings etc.

 
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FranOnFF said:
Puhleeze, I know this site is mecca for Manning worshipers, but Peyton (playoff choke artist) Manning 2nd best playoff qb ever? Not all that unexpected considering the source; kinda like global warming devotees manufacturing formulas to meet pre-conceived notions. GIGO, not sure Manning even makes the top 10 of playoff qbs on an unbiased (real) ratings system; you know, one based on reality and what actually matters most, such as wins, losses, td's, int's, qb ratings etc.
Click to expand...
it doesn't say he's the 2nd best playoff QB. It says he's the best regular season QB ever and when you add in playoff games, Joe Montana goes from 4th to 1st and Peyton drops to 2nd.
 
Congrat's Chase. I often don't agree with your take, but this is a huge accomplishment. Way to go.

 
Otis said:
That's pretty cool. :thumbup:

Link
Click to expand...
Cool stuff, congrats Chase..I like the notes at the end, about other detractors who talk about Manning's failures in the post season...they definitely have a point, Manning has a losing record in the post season.and I wonder if you could compare Manning to Otto Graham ( if you haven't done so already)..

Graham probably has the highest winning % of any QB in history, won the most titles, etc..

I know Peyton Manning is an all-time great, but when considering championships and titles and 'winning the big game' , Otto Graham was just better than any one who's ever played the game..

I'm curious as to how/why you'd leave out Manning's struggles in post-season play?

Manning might be one of the better regular season QB's, but IMO, he's not on par with Starr, Bradshaw, Brady, Montana et al , when it comes to the post-season..can you run a stat analysis of Manning in playoffs ( att,yds,comp %, winning %) vs these others?

let's say you establish some sort of baseline of x amount of playoff games played, and rank QB's that way...I wonder where Manning would wind up!

again,congrats on the column!

 
FranOnFF said:
Puhleeze, I know this site is mecca for Manning worshipers, but Peyton (playoff choke artist) Manning 2nd best playoff qb ever? Not all that unexpected considering the source;
Click to expand...
Actually, Chase is a Jets fan, NOT a Colts fan, and if there's a team that gets a little bit too much bias in props on this site, it's the Pats not the Colts.I rarely agree with Chase, and don't always like his methodology. But to say he's twisted something just to make Manning #1 is boderline ridiculous, if you know Chase at all.
 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
FranOnFF said:
Puhleeze, I know this site is mecca for Manning worshipers, but Peyton (playoff choke artist) Manning 2nd best playoff qb ever? Not all that unexpected considering the source; kinda like global warming devotees manufacturing formulas to meet pre-conceived notions. GIGO, not sure Manning even makes the top 10 of playoff qbs on an unbiased (real) ratings system; you know, one based on reality and what actually matters most, such as wins, losses, td's, int's, qb ratings etc.
Click to expand...
it doesn't say he's the 2nd best playoff QB. It says he's the best regular season QB ever and when you add in playoff games, Joe Montana goes from 4th to 1st and Peyton drops to 2nd.
Click to expand...
Yes. Thanks, Aaron.
 
Tanner9919 said:
Otis said:
That's pretty cool. :banned:

Link
Click to expand...
Cool stuff, congrats Chase..I like the notes at the end, about other detractors who talk about Manning's failures in the post season...they definitely have a point, Manning has a losing record in the post season.and I wonder if you could compare Manning to Otto Graham ( if you haven't done so already)..

Graham probably has the highest winning % of any QB in history, won the most titles, etc..

I know Peyton Manning is an all-time great, but when considering championships and titles and 'winning the big game' , Otto Graham was just better than any one who's ever played the game..

I'm curious as to how/why you'd leave out Manning's struggles in post-season play?

Manning might be one of the better regular season QB's, but IMO, he's not on par with Starr, Bradshaw, Brady, Montana et al , when it comes to the post-season..can you run a stat analysis of Manning in playoffs ( att,yds,comp %, winning %) vs these others?

let's say you establish some sort of baseline of x amount of playoff games played, and rank QB's that way...I wonder where Manning would wind up!

again,congrats on the column!
Click to expand...
Hey Tanner,Manning may have a losing record in the post-season, but he has good post-season numbers (mostly thanks to playing Denver). His play in the playoffs has definitely been below his stellar regular season play, but it still has been better than average.

I did compare Manning to Graham, although I gave no credit to Graham for his work in the AAFC. I think reasonable people could disagree about how to handle his four year there, but for now, I've discarded it. Graham does have the highest winning percentage (even excluding the AAFC) of all QBs with a minimum of 50 wins. He "only" won three NFL titles, which puts him behind a few other QBs (off the top of my head, Montana, Bradshaw and Starr).

I haven't left out Manning's post-season play. I left out his team's post-season play, because I don't think QBs should get credit for what their team does -- they should get credit for what they do. QB's numbers are already the byproduct of lots of other things -- strength of the RBs, WRs, OL, TE, coaches -- why also include the strength of the defense, too?

In this post -- http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=3378 -- you can see that I rank Montana, Starr, Aikman, Bradshaw, Warner, Luckman, Elway, Young, Stabler, Rote, Plunkett, Favre, Dawson, Brady, Charlie Conerly, Staubach, Graham, Anderson, Lamonica and Jeff Hostetler as the best 20 playoff QBs ever. This does *not* include team wins. It also doesn't include strength of schedule or weather adjustments, which would make this a more accurate list. I've got Manning down at #26.

But when you combine the regular and post-season, Manning still comes out as the #2 QB of all-time.

 
Chase Stuart said:
But when you combine the regular and post-season, Manning still comes out as the #2 QB of all-time.
Click to expand...
I assume you give equal weight to regular and post-season games - can you confirm that?Do you have any thoughts on weighing post-season games more heavily, or do you think that would only further complicate the matter?
 
Adebisi said:
Chase Stuart said:
But when you combine the regular and post-season, Manning still comes out as the #2 QB of all-time.
Click to expand...
I assume you give equal weight to regular and post-season games - can you confirm that?Do you have any thoughts on weighing post-season games more heavily, or do you think that would only further complicate the matter?
Click to expand...
I count Super Bowls and pre-SB era championship games three times, conference championship games twice, and all other player games once. That's why someone like Bradshaw or Montana shoots up the list once you include post-season data.
 
Chase Stuart said:
Tanner9919 said:
Otis said:
That's pretty cool. :mellow:

Link
Click to expand...
Cool stuff, congrats Chase..I like the notes at the end, about other detractors who talk about Manning's failures in the post season...they definitely have a point, Manning has a losing record in the post season.and I wonder if you could compare Manning to Otto Graham ( if you haven't done so already)..

Graham probably has the highest winning % of any QB in history, won the most titles, etc..

I know Peyton Manning is an all-time great, but when considering championships and titles and 'winning the big game' , Otto Graham was just better than any one who's ever played the game..

I'm curious as to how/why you'd leave out Manning's struggles in post-season play?

Manning might be one of the better regular season QB's, but IMO, he's not on par with Starr, Bradshaw, Brady, Montana et al , when it comes to the post-season..can you run a stat analysis of Manning in playoffs ( att,yds,comp %, winning %) vs these others?

let's say you establish some sort of baseline of x amount of playoff games played, and rank QB's that way...I wonder where Manning would wind up!

again,congrats on the column!
Click to expand...
Hey Tanner,Manning may have a losing record in the post-season, but he has good post-season numbers (mostly thanks to playing Denver). His play in the playoffs has definitely been below his stellar regular season play, but it still has been better than average.

I did compare Manning to Graham, although I gave no credit to Graham for his work in the AAFC. I think reasonable people could disagree about how to handle his four year there, but for now, I've discarded it. Graham does have the highest winning percentage (even excluding the AAFC) of all QBs with a minimum of 50 wins. He "only" won three NFL titles, which puts him behind a few other QBs (off the top of my head, Montana, Bradshaw and Starr).

I haven't left out Manning's post-season play. I left out his team's post-season play, because I don't think QBs should get credit for what their team does -- they should get credit for what they do. QB's numbers are already the byproduct of lots of other things -- strength of the RBs, WRs, OL, TE, coaches -- why also include the strength of the defense, too?

In this post -- http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=3378 -- you can see that I rank Montana, Starr, Aikman, Bradshaw, Warner, Luckman, Elway, Young, Stabler, Rote, Plunkett, Favre, Dawson, Brady, Charlie Conerly, Staubach, Graham, Anderson, Lamonica and Jeff Hostetler as the best 20 playoff QBs ever. This does *not* include team wins. It also doesn't include strength of schedule or weather adjustments, which would make this a more accurate list. I've got Manning down at #26.

But when you combine the regular and post-season, Manning still comes out as the #2 QB of all-time.
Click to expand...
Wow, #26 in post season but #2 all-time. I'm having a little trouble wrapping my head around that. Could you highlight the regular season stats that push Manning so high up the all-time list Chase? Thanks,

MW

 
Mark,

You can check out my methodology on the blog.

For what it's worth, Jim Brown comes in at much worse than the #26 post-season RB of all-time, but on the strength of his regular season resume, still ranked as my #1 RB of all-time.

 
Chase Stuart said:
Mark,

You can check out my methodology on the blog.

For what it's worth, Jim Brown comes in at much worse than the #26 post-season RB of all-time, but on the strength of his regular season resume, still ranked as my #1 RB of all-time.
Click to expand...
:mellow:
At this point it’s probably good to remind you that this formula is designed to be retrodictive and not predictive. The goal is to see which QBs were the most valuable in which seasons, not which QBs project to be the best the next season. Rushing touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles recovered are very inconsistent from season to season; passing touchdowns aren’t much easier to predict. But retrodictive formulas have their place when ranking past performances.
Click to expand...
So what I take from the methodology is that your analysis under consideration (not your forward-looking rankings, but rather your retro analysis, just to be clear here as I don't want folks to assume I am throwing questions at your 2009 rankings) will be most exact for players with many seasons under their belt, rather than someone like Matt Ryan... is that fair to say? You're looking for production over a long career in this analysis (a dynasty league perspective) rather than a year-to-year perspective (a redraft perspective). So Ryan has very little value from this retro perspective, as he's only played one season and has only a post-season loss under his belt. Yet he's one of the best players at his position from a forward-looking perspective.

Is there some way to marry the retro perspective to the forward perspective in your opinion? I mean here that Manning and Brady are high picks partially because of their history of production, but also because of their outstanding offensive team mates. Does past performance for currently active players have predictive value, and if so what degree of certainty would you assign to past vs. present?

For example, Sage Rosenfels. We have 7 years of data points on him, yet this year is perhaps his first chance at being "the guy" for a full 16 games - but he switched teams in the offseason. So where is a person (like me or lots of other guys on the board) supposed to go when projecting Rosenfels assuming a full 16 game season in Minnesota, throwing to Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe (and Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor)?

This is the issue that I struggle with from early March through the start of the NFL season...I'd honestly like to hear your base line and weighting, that's why I ask.

MW

 
Congrats. One ranking i was curious about. Hasn't Boomer Esiason been screwed as far as HOF?

Several years ago I compared Boomer to Jim Kelly who was a 1st ballot guy, and was roundly attacked. But according to your rankings, even taking postseason into account, Boomer was the better player.

 
starting over said:
Congrats. One ranking i was curious about. Hasn't Boomer Esiason been screwed as far as HOF?Several years ago I compared Boomer to Jim Kelly who was a 1st ballot guy, and was roundly attacked. But according to your rankings, even taking postseason into account, Boomer was the better player.
Click to expand...
Screwed is a strong word. If you're asking me if I think Boomer was better than Jim Kelly, my answer is yes.
 
A couple of comments, Mark.

So what I take from the methodology is that your analysis under consideration will be most exact for players with many seasons under their belt, rather than someone like Matt Ryan... is that fair to say? You're looking for production over a long career in this analysis (a dynasty league perspective) rather than a year-to-year perspective (a redraft perspective).
Click to expand...
Not exactly. For the career lists, sure, a young player won't show up. For a season by season list (I posted the 2008 numbers on Monday), that's not the case. What I meant by it not being predictive is that things like interceptions, fumbles and TDs are highly unpredictable from year to year. Yards per attempt, rushing yards for QBs, and even sack rates, are much more predictable. A QB with great yards per attempt and sack numbers but a lot of INTs and not too many TDs is a QB that I would project to be excellent the following season. Why? Because we'd expect him to have great Y/A and sack numbers, and average INT and TD numbers. That would make him great.
Does past performance for currently active players have predictive value, and if so what degree of certainty would you assign to past vs. present?
Click to expand...
Certainly. As far as making predictions, here are two articles I wrote that I think are more up your alley:Interceptions - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/0..._qbintrates.php

A very rudimentary look at the best QBs over the next 5-10 years: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=1724

Perhaps more on point are two articles I didn't write:

JKL from these boards wrote this terrific article on young QBs: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=591

Brian Burke wrote this article on Monday on regressing QB statistics: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/08/ko...all-monkey.html

 
switz said:
FranOnFF said:
Puhleeze, I know this site is mecca for Manning worshipers, but Peyton (playoff choke artist) Manning 2nd best playoff qb ever? Not all that unexpected considering the source;
Click to expand...
Actually, Chase is a Jets fan, NOT a Colts fan, and if there's a team that gets a little bit too much bias in props on this site, it's the Pats not the Colts.I rarely agree with Chase, and don't always like his methodology. But to say he's twisted something just to make Manning #1 is boderline ridiculous, if you know Chase at all.
Click to expand...
Never said Chase was a Colts fan so I don't know where you got that? It was late and I did not say it as clearly or as nicely as I could have; IMHO, football does not lend itself well to arbitrary formulas such as the one used by Chase. For instance, I concede Mannings regular season greatness; however his post season numbers are pedestrian at best and very hard for non believers to ignore. FTR, of Mannings 22 (playoff) tds & 17 interceptions a whopping 9 tds came in just 2 wildcard games at home against putrid defenses. In other words, without those 2 gift games, the "supposed" 2nd best statistical qb of all time would be sporting the following playoff numbers 13 tds, 16 ints, 5 wins and 8 losses. Those are appallingly bad numbers and unfortunately for Manning, he has made a habit of playing his worst when it matters most. As a fantasy qb he may very well be the best of all time, however as a "real" qb he falls far short imho.
 
Chase Stuart being hired by FBG's is one of the top 10 things to ever happen in FF.

Congrats on finally getting your just due.

 
FranOnFF said:
switz said:
FranOnFF said:
Puhleeze, I know this site is mecca for Manning worshipers, but Peyton (playoff choke artist) Manning 2nd best playoff qb ever? Not all that unexpected considering the source;
Click to expand...
Actually, Chase is a Jets fan, NOT a Colts fan, and if there's a team that gets a little bit too much bias in props on this site, it's the Pats not the Colts.I rarely agree with Chase, and don't always like his methodology. But to say he's twisted something just to make Manning #1 is boderline ridiculous, if you know Chase at all.
Click to expand...
Never said Chase was a Colts fan so I don't know where you got that? It was late and I did not say it as clearly or as nicely as I could have; IMHO, football does not lend itself well to arbitrary formulas such as the one used by Chase. For instance, I concede Mannings regular season greatness; however his post season numbers are pedestrian at best and very hard for non believers to ignore. FTR, of Mannings 22 (playoff) tds & 17 interceptions a whopping 9 tds came in just 2 wildcard games at home against putrid defenses. In other words, without those 2 gift games, the "supposed" 2nd best statistical qb of all time would be sporting the following playoff numbers 13 tds, 16 ints, 5 wins and 8 losses. Those are appallingly bad numbers and unfortunately for Manning, he has made a habit of playing his worst when it matters most. As a fantasy qb he may very well be the best of all time, however as a "real" qb he falls far short imho.
Click to expand...
Manning's also averaged 7.5 yards per attempt in his 15 career playoff games; that's very good (e.g., Brady has averaged only 6.6 yards per attempt).
 
Congrats Chase! Have been reading your work for years.

When you get thru celebrating and back to work shoot me an email, this years DTBC needs some tweaking :(

 
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