What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Check my logic.... (1 Viewer)

S

SCT

Footballguy
I'm pretty sure this isn't your run of the mill WSIS, more of a situational, philosophical question, so I thought I'd put it in the pool....

If I'm playing a guy who really doesn't have a lot of weapons (because of byes, etc.) and one of his main threats is MSW, do I start Garrard over Brady to try to neutralize what poinst MSW could put up? Am I overthinking this type of situation?

 
If you didn't have a stud QB I would think about it, but Brady is a stud. I could see sitting Palmer VS Baltimore or guys simular with bad matchups, but not Brady vs Denver.

 
I've had success with this move in the past - only in leagues where passing TDs are 6pts just like the receiving TDs though. I've never bother trying it in a 4pt passing TD league.

 
Frankbot said:
I've had success with this move in the past - only in leagues where passing TDs are 6pts just like the receiving TDs though. I've never bother trying it in a 4pt passing TD league.
Click to expand...
Ya, we're 6 patd.......I agree with the other poster that you always start your studs, but Garrard is ranked very close to Brady this week, FWIW.
 
SCT said:
I'm pretty sure this isn't your run of the mill WSIS, more of a situational, philosophical question, so I thought I'd put it in the pool....

If I'm playing a guy who really doesn't have a lot of weapons (because of byes, etc.) and one of his main threats is MSW, do I start Garrard over Brady to try to neutralize what poinst MSW could put up? Am I overthinking this type of situation?
Click to expand...
Definitely not overthinking. You're actually in a good spot since you presumably don't have to make that decision until 4pm EST on Sunday. It depends on what other players are left to go, of course, but all else being equal I'd say if you are winning I would start Garrard to minimize the chance that your opponent drastically outscores you in the late games; if you are losing and need to catch up I would start Brady.The advice to "start whichever player will score more points" would be spot on if you somehow knew how many points each player would actually score. In the absence of such a prophetic advantage, starting who you think will score more is not necessarily the optimal strategy. Start who gives you the best chance to win - which may involve minimizing risk and variance when you have a lead, or maximizing risk when you are trailing.

 
Always pick the guy that you feel will score you the most points, period. Brady can neutralize MSW's points just as effectively as Garrard can. If Brady and Garrard both score 20 and MSW scores 15, in the end you're still +5 regardless of who you started.

 
lyon812 said:
Always pick the guy that you feel will score you the most points, period. Brady can neutralize MSW's points just as effectively as Garrard can. If Brady and Garrard both score 20 and MSW scores 15, in the end you're still +5 regardless of who you started.
Click to expand...
No he can't. Brady's fantasy production is completely independent of Sims-Walker's. Garrard's is not. Sure if they each score 20 and MSW scores 15, you're still +5 either way. So what? Of what relevance is that cherry-picked example? If Brady scores 10, MSW scores 15, and Garrard scores 20, then Garrard is the better play. See, I can do that too.

The point is you don't know how many points any of them will score. But if the early games are over and you're winning by 10, then starting Garrard is the right play. The chances that MSW will drastically outscore Garrard are far less than the chances that MSW will drastically outscore Brady.

 
tomarken said:
lyon812 said:
Always pick the guy that you feel will score you the most points, period. Brady can neutralize MSW's points just as effectively as Garrard can. If Brady and Garrard both score 20 and MSW scores 15, in the end you're still +5 regardless of who you started.
Click to expand...
No he can't. Brady's fantasy production is completely independent of Sims-Walker's. Garrard's is not. .....................................

The point is you don't know how many points any of them will score. But if the early games are over and you're winning by 10, then starting Garrard is the right play. The chances that MSW will drastically outscore Garrard are far less than the chances that MSW will drastically outscore Brady.
Click to expand...
You are right, but your logic is incorrect. If you are ahead then you choose Gerrard because it mitigates the chance that MSW has a monster game and loses the game for you because you are neutralizing your opponent's player. If you are losing you start Brady because his stats are independent of MSW and you are hoping Brady goes off and outplays MSW. In the losing scenario your chance of a comeback is mitigated by the fact that MSW is potentially neutralizing some of Gerrard's production.That said, I try not to do this; you end up out-thinking yourself. Personally I put match-up over any player on my opponent's team. Both Brady and Gerrard have decent matchups. I would probably consider Brady the better start because he won't make the same mistake throwing to Baily three times like Romo did...despite the emergence of a passing game, Jax is still a run first offense and is likely to be crushing Seattle early.

 
Marburg said:
tomarken said:
lyon812 said:
Always pick the guy that you feel will score you the most points, period. Brady can neutralize MSW's points just as effectively as Garrard can. If Brady and Garrard both score 20 and MSW scores 15, in the end you're still +5 regardless of who you started.
Click to expand...
No he can't. Brady's fantasy production is completely independent of Sims-Walker's. Garrard's is not. .....................................

The point is you don't know how many points any of them will score. But if the early games are over and you're winning by 10, then starting Garrard is the right play. The chances that MSW will drastically outscore Garrard are far less than the chances that MSW will drastically outscore Brady.
Click to expand...
You are right, but your logic is incorrect. If you are ahead then you choose Gerrard because it mitigates the chance that MSW has a monster game and loses the game for you because you are neutralizing your opponent's player. If you are losing you start Brady because his stats are independent of MSW and you are hoping Brady goes off and outplays MSW. In the losing scenario your chance of a comeback is mitigated by the fact that MSW is potentially neutralizing some of Gerrard's production.
Click to expand...
Reading comprehension down?
 
I would start Garrard because the Sea pass D is bad...really bad without Trufant and now they will not have their best pass rusher, Kerney either. So, by starting Garrard you will be able to hedge if MSW goes off for 100+ yards and 2 TDs....if MSW does not do much, you do not have much to lose if his other players are real duds. Do what it takes to win....do not just follow everyone else in FF.

 
RUSF18 said:
Your opponent able to take MSW out of the lineup?
Click to expand...
No, he didn't, but I also didn't know about it until too late so started garrard. Had I known, I would have started Brady obviously.I'm up 40-20. Was up 37-13 Going into afternoon games.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Scoresman
  • Poll Poll
Shark Pool Player Rankings Contest - Interest Check
Replies
48
Views
2K
Scoresman
Scoresman
EBF
2025 Rookie Thoughts
2
Replies
57
Views
8K
EBF
EBF
Scoresman
Will last year's historically low drop in scoring continue into 2023?
Replies
22
Views
2K
Scoresman
Scoresman

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top