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Chris Perry (1 Viewer)

W1cked

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I been tempted to pick him up the last two nights. Perry had 13 catches for 122 yards, rushing 33 carries for 114 in the preseason. Marvin Lewis obviously likes him from his comments. Sounds like they are going to try to use him to exploit matchups. Sending him wide as a reciever. Get him matched up on a slow LB. Send him on deep patterns. Rudi Johnson will going to get his carries, but with Warrick gone... would Perry now have some value? He's a #1 pick afterall. Picked before Stephen Jackson, Kevin Jones, Juliis Jones

 
I been tempted to pick him up the last two nights. Perry had 13 catches for 122 yards, rushing 33 carries for 114 in the preseason. Marvin Lewis obviously likes him from his comments. Sounds like they are going to try to use him to exploit matchups. Sending him wide as a reciever. Get him matched up on a slow LB. Send him on deep patterns. Rudi Johnson will going to get his carries, but with Warrick gone... would Perry now have some value?

He's a #1 pick afterall. Picked before Stephen Jackson, Kevin Jones, Juliis Jones
unlike the others though he's buried behind a good starting rb. Rudi is going to get the lionshare of the work while Perry will probably get a few carries and receptions per game.
 
wouldnt surprise me to see him catch 50-60 balls this year. i like him just as much as marshall faulk.

 
Perry is unlikely to have a significant value in a re-draft league this year unless Rudi gets hurt. If that happens, Perry could become even more valuable than Rudi due to Perry's ability to catch passes. I would watch the first few games of the season carefully. The Bengals have used RBBC effectively in the past. That could happen later this season if Perry pulls off some big plays early.

 
Outside of ff, as a Bengals fan, I am extremely excited to what he brings to the table. I hope to see some 2 RB backfields this year. Perry is so good catching out of the backfield, scary.

 
Perry is the very definition of an every-down-back. The fantasy world is really dumb sometimes. Perry had a quiet rookie season and everyone forgot how good the guy can really be. If Perry were the starter in Cinci, he'd be a fantasy monster and I wouldn't hesitate to say he'd be a top 10 pick and put up numbers even better than Julius Jones. His time will come.

 
Perry is the very definition of an every-down-back. The fantasy world is really dumb sometimes. Perry had a quiet rookie season and everyone forgot how good the guy can really be. If Perry were the starter in Cinci, he'd be a fantasy monster and I wouldn't hesitate to say he'd be a top 10 pick and put up numbers even better than Julius Jones. His time will come.
I agree regarding Perry's skills. The issue, however, is whether he can stay healthy.
 
wouldnt surprise me to see him catch 50-60 balls this year. i like him just as much as marshall faulk.
50-60 catches?come on
I can see it happening
based on what?The cincy offense does not pass to the RB's much, if at all.

Rudi had 15 catches, that's less than on per game. Kenny Watson, the third down change of pace back had something like 35 catches.

This just isn't gonna happen, take him as your rb5/6, handcuff him to Rudi etc.

But unless Rudi gets hurt and Cincy changes there offense, he'll be lucky to catch 35.

 
wouldnt surprise me to see him catch 50-60 balls this year. i like him just as much as marshall faulk.
50-60 catches?come on
I can see it happening
based on what?The cincy offense does not pass to the RB's much, if at all.

Rudi had 15 catches, that's less than on per game. Kenny Watson, the third down change of pace back had something like 35 catches.

This just isn't gonna happen, take him as your rb5/6, handcuff him to Rudi etc.

But unless Rudi gets hurt and Cincy changes there offense, he'll be lucky to catch 35.
Bratkowski (OC) will find a way to use him. If you've seen their preseason games, they used him heavily in the passing game. It's a very flexible offense. They'll use their weapons. I wouldn't say that he'd get 60, that's a stretch, I agree. But I see him in the 40-50 range for sure.
 
wouldnt surprise me to see him catch 50-60 balls this year. i like him just as much as marshall faulk.
50-60 catches?come on
I can see it happening
based on what?The cincy offense does not pass to the RB's much, if at all.

Rudi had 15 catches, that's less than on per game. Kenny Watson, the third down change of pace back had something like 35 catches.

This just isn't gonna happen, take him as your rb5/6, handcuff him to Rudi etc.

But unless Rudi gets hurt and Cincy changes there offense, he'll be lucky to catch 35.
Give Perry Watson's 35 catches, plus 2 more per game because he is a better player, and should be utilized, and we have 67 receptions. Yep, it can happen. Bottom line: Perry is the 2nd best backup RB in the NFL and should be a stud when he gets the chance.

 
wouldnt surprise me to see him catch 50-60 balls this year. i like him just as much as marshall faulk.
50-60 catches?come on
I can see it happening
based on what?The cincy offense does not pass to the RB's much, if at all.

Rudi had 15 catches, that's less than on per game. Kenny Watson, the third down change of pace back had something like 35 catches.

This just isn't gonna happen, take him as your rb5/6, handcuff him to Rudi etc.

But unless Rudi gets hurt and Cincy changes there offense, he'll be lucky to catch 35.
based on what?1) Perry has top notch receiving skills for an RB

2) Perry caught 13 balls in the preseason. that's over 3 a game in LIMITED action. imagine if he had played the whole games.

clearly, the bengals have plans for perry being a weapon as a receiver out of the backfield. it makes a lot of sense considering his skills and their lack of any credible receiving threat at TE.

Watson is definitely an inferior back to Perry, i dont know why you use that as an indicator. Also, OC's are smart enough to adjust their gameplan to the skill players they have. the bengals have an excellent receiving RB, so they will adjust their game plan to play to that strength. i would throw last year out as an indicator of how many passes will go to the RBs this year.

 
I love Chris Perry sitting on my bench in point per reception leagues. Rudi just doesn't catch passes. Even as the backup/3rd down back Chris will catch a couple of passes per game and put some points on the board. And if something happens to Rudi, his upside is scary.

 
Bloom, this is PRE-season stats your talking about right?I threw watsons stats out ther to show you the receiving back for Cincy last year only caught 35.Rudi could see an increased reception total as well.I dont wanna rain on your Chris Perry parade but to expect 60 catches out of the guy is just nuts and flat out wrong. Now if Rudi tears his ACL week1 against the browns more power to ya, but if Rudi & perry are healthy it's just not gonna happen

 
Bloom, this is PRE-season stats your talking about right?

I threw watsons stats out ther to show you the receiving back for Cincy last year only caught 35.

Rudi could see an increased reception total as well.

I dont wanna rain on your Chris Perry parade but to expect 60 catches out of the guy is just nuts and flat out wrong.

Now if Rudi tears his ACL week1 against the browns more power to ya, but if Rudi & perry are healthy it's just not gonna happen
yeah its PRE season, but its certainly a good indicator on how they plan on using perry. he caught 13 balls in what amounted to probably 2 full games - doesnt that tell you that passing to perry is going to be a big part of the offense? watson was used as a 3rd down back and caught his 35 passes situationally. perry is such an excellent pass catcher that im sure youll see plays scripted for him that arent just dump offs or screen passes on 3rd and 15. thats the point. - perry provides a dimension that watson doesnt - not just a competent 3rd down back, but a guy that is actually a threat to make plays.lastly, i said i wouldnt be surprised to see him catch 50 or 60 balls this year. if you asked me for a specific number to predict, i would say 45.

 
Bloom, this is PRE-season stats your talking about right?

I threw watsons stats out ther to show you the receiving back for Cincy last year only caught 35.

Rudi could see an increased reception total as well.

I dont wanna rain on your Chris Perry parade but to expect 60 catches out of the guy is just nuts and flat out wrong.

Now if Rudi tears his ACL week1 against the browns more power to ya, but if Rudi & perry are healthy it's just not gonna happen
yeah its PRE season, but its certainly a good indicator on how they plan on using perry. he caught 13 balls in what amounted to probably 2 full games - doesnt that tell you that passing to perry is going to be a big part of the offense? watson was used as a 3rd down back and caught his 35 passes situationally. perry is such an excellent pass catcher that im sure youll see plays scripted for him that arent just dump offs or screen passes on 3rd and 15. thats the point. - perry provides a dimension that watson doesnt - not just a competent 3rd down back, but a guy that is actually a threat to make plays.lastly, i said i wouldnt be surprised to see him catch 50 or 60 balls this year. if you asked me for a specific number to predict, i would say 45.
We have to keep in mind that while teams don't give too much of their game plan away, a large part of the preseason games is to see what players who haven't done a lot (or anything) in the regular season before can provide to the team. If Perry had been used in a certain way but not looked impressive, this would be a moot point.

However, because he demonstrated that he can provide an additional tool to the offense, the coaching staff sees what he can do, and will use him accordingly.

 
Bloom,  this is PRE-season stats your talking about right?

I threw watsons stats out ther to show you the receiving back for Cincy last year only caught 35.

Rudi could see an increased reception total as well.

I dont wanna rain on your Chris Perry parade but to expect 60 catches out of the guy is just nuts and flat out wrong.

Now if Rudi tears his ACL week1  against the browns more power to ya, but if Rudi & perry are healthy it's just not gonna happen
yeah its PRE season, but its certainly a good indicator on how they plan on using perry. he caught 13 balls in what amounted to probably 2 full games - doesnt that tell you that passing to perry is going to be a big part of the offense? watson was used as a 3rd down back and caught his 35 passes situationally. perry is such an excellent pass catcher that im sure youll see plays scripted for him that arent just dump offs or screen passes on 3rd and 15. thats the point. - perry provides a dimension that watson doesnt - not just a competent 3rd down back, but a guy that is actually a threat to make plays.lastly, i said i wouldnt be surprised to see him catch 50 or 60 balls this year. if you asked me for a specific number to predict, i would say 45.
Screen plays in the pre-season are the very definition of vanilla. You know that teams show very little of what they are gonna do in the pre-season.45 still sounds high to me.

Look at the backs and recpetion totals from 2004:

LT2 - 53

Edge- 51

M.faulk - 50

Barber - 52

Dunn - 29

Westbrook - 73

D.Davis - 68

Besides Faulk, none of these guys really split time, especially on third down. Perry will be splitting time.

Those are some great pass catching backs in that list and if you expect chris perry in basically his rookie season to come close to these guys numbers in the passing game then more power to you.

 
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I been tempted to pick him up the last two nights. Perry had 13 catches for 122 yards, rushing 33 carries for 114 in the preseason. Marvin Lewis obviously likes him from his comments. Sounds like they are going to try to use him to exploit matchups. Sending him wide as a reciever. Get him matched up on a slow LB. Send him on deep patterns. Rudi Johnson will going to get his carries, but with Warrick gone... would Perry now have some value?

He's a #1 pick afterall. Picked before Stephen Jackson, Kevin Jones, Juliis Jones
Actually Stephen Jackson was the first RB taken in the 2004 draft at #24 overall. CP was 26th, KJ 30th, Bell 41st and JJ 43rd.
 
Bloom, this is PRE-season stats your talking about right?



I threw watsons stats out ther to show you the receiving back for Cincy last year only caught 35.

Rudi could see an increased reception total as well.

I dont wanna rain on your Chris Perry parade but to expect 60 catches out of the guy is just nuts and flat out wrong.

Now if Rudi tears his ACL week1 against the browns more power to ya, but if Rudi & perry are healthy it's just not gonna happen
yeah its PRE season, but its certainly a good indicator on how they plan on using perry. he caught 13 balls in what amounted to probably 2 full games - doesnt that tell you that passing to perry is going to be a big part of the offense? watson was used as a 3rd down back and caught his 35 passes situationally. perry is such an excellent pass catcher that im sure youll see plays scripted for him that arent just dump offs or screen passes on 3rd and 15. thats the point. - perry provides a dimension that watson doesnt - not just a competent 3rd down back, but a guy that is actually a threat to make plays.lastly, i said i wouldnt be surprised to see him catch 50 or 60 balls this year. if you asked me for a specific number to predict, i would say 45.
Screen plays in the pre-season are the very definition of vanilla. You know that teams show very little of what they are gonna do in the pre-season.45 still sounds high to me.

Look at the backs and recpetion totals from 2004:

LT2 - 53

Edge- 51

M.faulk - 50

Barber - 52

Dunn - 29

Westbrook - 73

D.Davis - 68

Besides Faulk, none of these guys really split time, especially on third down. Perry will be splitting time.

Those are some great pass catching backs in that list and if you expect chris perry in basically his rookie season to come close to these guys numbers in the passing game then more power to you.
Watson gets 35, and you don't see how Perry could get 10 more over the course of a season? Looks like we'll just have to disagree here.

 
Screen plays in the pre-season are the very definition of vanilla. You know that teams show very little of what they are gonna do in the pre-season.

45 still sounds high to me.

Look at the backs and recpetion totals from 2004:

LT2 - 53

Edge- 51

M.faulk - 50

Barber - 52

Dunn - 29

Westbrook - 73

D.Davis - 68

Besides Faulk, none of these guys really split time, especially on third down. Perry will be splitting time.

Those are some great pass catching backs in that list and if you expect chris perry in basically his rookie season to come close to these guys numbers in the passing game then more power to you.
sowell 44 (as a FB!)bryson 45 (3rd down only)

and besides, you already pointed out that watson caught 35 in the same offense. so all perry has to do is get watson's catches + 1 more a game to get over 45. I think you're underestimating the extent cincy is ready to use perry.

edit to add: OZ beat me to it.

 
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As a Cinci homer, my guess is that by seasons end the split between these two will be closer to 50-50 than 70-30 in terms of total touches per game.

 
Screen plays in the pre-season are the very definition of vanilla. You know that teams show very little of what they are gonna do in the pre-season.

45 still sounds high to me.

Look at the backs and recpetion totals from 2004:

LT2 - 53

Edge- 51

M.faulk - 50

Barber - 52

Dunn - 29

Westbrook - 73

D.Davis - 68

Besides Faulk, none of these guys really split time, especially on third down. Perry will be splitting time.

Those are some great pass catching backs in that list and if you expect chris perry in basically his rookie season to come close to these guys numbers in the passing game then more power to you.
sowell 44 (as a FB!)bryson 45 (3rd down only)

and besides, you already pointed out that watson caught 35 in the same offense. so all perry has to do is get watson's catches + 1 more a game to get over 45. I think you're underestimating the extent cincy is ready to use perry.

edit to add: OZ beat me to it.
http://www.nfl.com/teams/stats/CIN/2004/regularActually, Watson only had 25, sorry my bad.

I guess I'm a Perry Underestimater than. :bye:

 
Bloom,  this is PRE-season stats your talking about right?



I threw watsons stats out ther to show you the receiving back for Cincy last year only caught 35.

Rudi could see an increased reception total as well.

I dont wanna rain on your Chris Perry parade but to expect 60 catches out of the guy is just nuts and flat out wrong.

Now if Rudi tears his ACL week1  against the browns more power to ya, but if Rudi & perry are healthy it's just not gonna happen
yeah its PRE season, but its certainly a good indicator on how they plan on using perry. he caught 13 balls in what amounted to probably 2 full games - doesnt that tell you that passing to perry is going to be a big part of the offense? watson was used as a 3rd down back and caught his 35 passes situationally. perry is such an excellent pass catcher that im sure youll see plays scripted for him that arent just dump offs or screen passes on 3rd and 15. thats the point. - perry provides a dimension that watson doesnt - not just a competent 3rd down back, but a guy that is actually a threat to make plays.lastly, i said i wouldnt be surprised to see him catch 50 or 60 balls this year. if you asked me for a specific number to predict, i would say 45.
Screen plays in the pre-season are the very definition of vanilla. You know that teams show very little of what they are gonna do in the pre-season.45 still sounds high to me.

Look at the backs and recpetion totals from 2004:

LT2 - 53

Edge- 51

M.faulk - 50

Barber - 52

Dunn - 29

Westbrook - 73

D.Davis - 68

Besides Faulk, none of these guys really split time, especially on third down. Perry will be splitting time.

Those are some great pass catching backs in that list and if you expect chris perry in basically his rookie season to come close to these guys numbers in the passing game then more power to you.
Watson gets 35, and you don't see how Perry could get 10 more over the course of a season? Looks like we'll just have to disagree here.
Yes, we will. Good debate though.I'm not going to overvalue a guy, based on two pre-season games, that has a firmly entrenched starter infront of him.

 
This Bengles fan thinks Perry will have 60 receptions. (see blog link below)

Chris Perry will have 60 catches, if he remains healthy. With injury to Washington and Walter recovering from a concussion, game #1 could prove great for Perry as an occasional slot/flanker receiver, not to mention a check-down receiver on third downs (which we all expect). Talk about sick.

http://blogs.bengalszone.com/index.php?op=...Id=101&blogId=1

Perry may be the best late round pick this year. He is the total package.

 
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As a Cinci homer, my guess is that by seasons end the split between these two will be closer to 50-50 than 70-30 in terms of total touches per game.
:o :banned: Pray tell how you would assume the split to be 50/50?? :stirspot:

 
I'm not going to overvalue a guy, based on two pre-season games, that has a firmly entrenched starter infront of him.
Oh, that's the smart, conservative play. I don't blame you for it, generally speaking I'd agree. But, I'm not just basing my projections on two pre-season games, rather from what I saw in college (I know, college doesn't always = NFL success). Nor am I trying to say that Perry is a top 30 back right now. He has the potential to be much higher, but shouldn't be ranked there yet.

I'm simply saying Perry is better than Watson and Cincy will get Perry involved in the offense more than Watson was.

Plus, is there another backup RB in the NFL outside of Kansas City, with more talent or in a better situation to perform if the starter got injured?

 
The biggest mistake of would-be-sharks is to use the pre-season as some sort of barometer for how much a team will use a player. Sure, check out the player's skills. See if he dominates his opponent. Notice if plays seem specifically called for him and check out how well he seems to match the overall offense.Perry is talented and is a great backup. He's a great back to take a flyer on because he provides REAL upside.. not some sort of marginal improvement. If you're someone who banks on injuries to RBs, like I do, then Perry is very high on your list of late round pickups. If Rudi is healthy though, Perry is a non-factor this season.

 
Plus, is there another backup RB in the NFL outside of Kansas City, with more talent or in a better situation to perform if the starter got injured?
chester taylor?
On what basis? I don't think CT is in the same league as Perry, nor does he play in a better offense. Sorry, but nice reach.
 
Plus, is there another backup RB in the NFL outside of Kansas City, with more talent or in a better situation to perform if the starter got injured?
chester taylor?
On what basis? I don't think CT is in the same league as Perry, nor does he play in a better offense. Sorry, but nice reach.
more for the situation than talent. obviously very few teams have a fresh first rounder as their backup RB, so on talent, its hard to beat perry. still, i think taylor could put up 80-90% of lewis's numbers as the starter.
 
Plus, is there another backup RB in the NFL outside of Kansas City, with more talent or in a better situation to perform if the starter got injured?
chester taylor?
Maybe the better situation, although IMO that's close.I don't see CT as more talented.

 
As a Cinci homer, my guess is that by seasons end the split between these two will be closer to 50-50 than 70-30 in terms of total touches per game.
:o :banned: Pray tell how you would assume the split to be 50/50?? :stirspot:
First, I don't have Perry on any of my teams. But there has been alot of talk on local radio (many with Marvin Lewis) that the Bengals intend on using Perry much more than a situational back, and that the Bengals intend on using alot of 2-back sets throughout the season. While he didn't come out and say what the splits would be, it seems to me that they are planning on having Perry take a much larger role in the offense than people outside the city might think. And I didn't say it would be 50-50. I said it would be closer to 50-50 AT THE END OF THE SEASON than to 70-30. :boxing:
 
The only way Perry plays a significant role is if The Bengals are out of the playoff picture.They will want to see if Perry can handle the load if they were to let Johnson go.Perry will be lucky to see a 70-30 split early on.

 
The only way Perry plays a significant role is if The Bengals are out of the playoff picture.

They will want to see if Perry can handle the load if they were to let Johnson go.

Perry will be lucky to see a 70-30 split early on.
Which pretty much proves the point that Perry could be a huge sleeper.If nothing else, it's a situation you need to carefully watch. If Perry gets 12 carries and 4-5 catches the 1st game, I'm snapping him up.

 
The only way Perry plays a significant role is if The Bengals are out of the playoff picture.

They will want to see if Perry can handle the load if they were to let Johnson go.

Perry will be lucky to see  a 70-30 split early on.
Which pretty much proves the point that Perry could be a huge sleeper.If nothing else, it's a situation you need to carefully watch. If Perry gets 12 carries and 4-5 catches the 1st game, I'm snapping him up.
If Perry gets 12 carries and 5 receptions, I have a feeling it means Rudi got hurt.
 
The only way Perry plays a significant role is if The Bengals are out of the playoff picture.

They will want to see if Perry can handle the load if they were to let Johnson go.

Perry will be lucky to see a 70-30 split early on.
I disagree with this. While Perry may not play a significant role in the running game (although I think he will play a larger role than many are expecting), he will surely play a significant role in the receiving game out of the backfield.Perry does a lot of things better than Rudi. Rudi is very one dimensional and defenses don't have to respect him in the passing game, which limits the offense.

I wouldn't predict a 50/50 split in TOUCHES, but it would not shock me in the least.

 
Furthermore, alot of people have said they see this shaping up like a Ickey Woods/James Brooks situation, which seems to me to be a fair comparison, IMO. And to be clear, I didn't say it would be 50-50 all season, but would trend that way as the season progresses.

 
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I like Perry. Have him in my dynasty league, and am hopeful.But as far as better situation should the starter go down for the rest of the season, I'd take Chester Taylor over Chris Perry in a heartbeat.While I can think Perry might be a better back than Taylor (not that I necessarily do, haven't given it any thought), I know what Taylor can do.

 
I recall a game Perry played against Minnesota his senior year at UM he had 10+ catches. Love to see what he'd do as a full-time player. I think 50-60 catches this year is a bit high but certainly he could be in the 40 range.

 
The bottom line is that Chris Perry is absolute gold in dynasty formats. He can be had cheap and has the tools to be an absolute stud, especially in that budding Cinci offense. Rudi Johnson is a very solid stop-gap but he is not the Bengals franchise back of the future. When is "the future"? Sounds as though Perry is going to be worked in quite a bit more this season than people previously had anticipated. The result could be that "the future" happens much more quickly than anyone realizes. Oh, and injuries or repeated shoddy play on Rudi's behalf will result in a more immediate opportunity for Perry.

 
I've just skimmed through the thread, but I haven't seen this point brought up.Rudi Johnson had 361 carries last season. That is a ridiculously high amount. History has been almost UNIVERSALLY unkind to RBs coming off of a 350 carry season in year n+1 (unless your name is Eric Dickerson). The injury rates and the decline in play are UNREAL, and again, almost universal. Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson both suffered career ending injuries after a 350+ carry season. Ricky Williams dropped from 1800 yards to 1300 yards (and saw his ypc drop a full yard) after his 350+ carry season. Jamal Lewis saw his ypg drop almost 50 yards last season, and saw his ypc drop half a yard, coming off of a 350+ carry season. Basically, RBs do NOT fare well the year after getting that high of a workload.This presents two problems to Rudi Johnson, both arising from the fact that he's already a pretty low ypc RB (4.0 last season). Problem #1 is that, if his ypc drops any, he's going to need an even GREATER workload this season to produce any numbers (sort of like Ricky Williams, who actually had more carries when he ran for 1300 than he did when he ran for 1800). The greater workload drastically increases his risk of injury. Problem #2 is that, since his ypc is already so low, and since his backup RB is so talented and fresh, any drop in his ypc might be enough to warrent Perry at least getting a look.As such, I think that Chris Perry is a HUGE upside RB this season, and definitely worth a late round flier. If he stays Johnson's backup, I don't think he has much value, but I think he's the 2nd most likely backup to see his starter go down by midseason.For the record, the 1st most likely backup to see his starter go down is Derrick Blaylock. Not only is Curtis Martin 32 (which doesn't worry me too much), he got more carries than even Johnson last season, with a total of 371. That is NOT a good sign. I don't like gambling on injuries, but this 350+ carries trend has proven accurate so many times, that I simply refuse to bet against it. I don't own Johnson or Martin in a single one of my leagues. I'm also leery of Corey Dillon, who had 345 carries in 15 games, although I do own him in one league (I'm extremely deep at RB, and I'll try to move him after 3-4 weeks when his value is high).

 
I started this thread, and I'm still tempted to pick up Perry. I live in Michigan, and he had some great games in college. Chris Perry has a great work ethic too. Yes, Johnson had alot of carries last year. Johnson is also a physical type guy, not a elusive slasher. He's going to get banged around. There is a chance he could pick up a nagging injury, or just miss a few games. Johnson's yard per carry the last 5-6 games was 3.5. He picked most of his yards in the 4th quarter (4.8) other than that he was under 4 yards per carry. Overall, I think Perry fits in the Bengals offese scheme better, but Rude has produced. It's hard for me to believe the Begals used a #1 pick on this guy a year ago for him to be a back up. I think they had something in mind when he was drafted. Perry's not 100% yet according to him, so I might wait a week or two to see how he is used, but eventually I'm going to pick him up. I just have a tough cut to make if I do this week.

 
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I've just skimmed through the thread, but I haven't seen this point brought up.

Rudi Johnson had 361 carries last season. That is a ridiculously high amount. History has been almost UNIVERSALLY unkind to RBs coming off of a 350 carry season in year n+1 (unless your name is Eric Dickerson). The injury rates and the decline in play are UNREAL, and again, almost universal. Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson both suffered career ending injuries after a 350+ carry season. Ricky Williams dropped from 1800 yards to 1300 yards (and saw his ypc drop a full yard) after his 350+ carry season. Jamal Lewis saw his ypg drop almost 50 yards last season, and saw his ypc drop half a yard, coming off of a 350+ carry season. Basically, RBs do NOT fare well the year after getting that high of a workload.

This presents two problems to Rudi Johnson, both arising from the fact that he's already a pretty low ypc RB (4.0 last season). Problem #1 is that, if his ypc drops any, he's going to need an even GREATER workload this season to produce any numbers (sort of like Ricky Williams, who actually had more carries when he ran for 1300 than he did when he ran for 1800). The greater workload drastically increases his risk of injury. Problem #2 is that, since his ypc is already so low, and since his backup RB is so talented and fresh, any drop in his ypc might be enough to warrent Perry at least getting a look.

As such, I think that Chris Perry is a HUGE upside RB this season, and definitely worth a late round flier. If he stays Johnson's backup, I don't think he has much value, but I think he's the 2nd most likely backup to see his starter go down by midseason.

For the record, the 1st most likely backup to see his starter go down is Derrick Blaylock. Not only is Curtis Martin 32 (which doesn't worry me too much), he got more carries than even Johnson last season, with a total of 371. That is NOT a good sign. I don't like gambling on injuries, but this 350+ carries trend has proven accurate so many times, that I simply refuse to bet against it. I don't own Johnson or Martin in a single one of my leagues. I'm also leery of Corey Dillon, who had 345 carries in 15 games, although I do own him in one league (I'm extremely deep at RB, and I'll try to move him after 3-4 weeks when his value is high).
Hmmmm interesting ???How accurate has this stat been over the last 5 years ??

I may drop Travis Henry for Perry - knowing this new info

 
I've grabbed Perry late in almost all leagues. IMO, he is a perfect late-round RB.If the starter gets hurt, I think he will put up equal if not better stats. And he isn't even wasting a roster spot either, as given Cincy's basically committed to giving him touches, he is a great emergency bye week or injury fill in guy (unlike the Mo Morris' who really take up space unless the starter goes down).I'm not sure about the 60 catches, but I don't think 35-40 is out of the question, which makes him a viable RB3/4 in ppr leagues.Ideally he will end up rewarding savvy owners who shop him to nervous Rudi owners after Perry showcases his skills early season :)

 
I've just skimmed through the thread, but I haven't seen this point brought up.

Rudi Johnson had 361 carries last season. That is a ridiculously high amount. History has been almost UNIVERSALLY unkind to RBs coming off of a 350 carry season in year n+1 (unless your name is Eric Dickerson). The injury rates and the decline in play are UNREAL, and again, almost universal. Terrell Davis and Jamal Anderson both suffered career ending injuries after a 350+ carry season. Ricky Williams dropped from 1800 yards to 1300 yards (and saw his ypc drop a full yard) after his 350+ carry season. Jamal Lewis saw his ypg drop almost 50 yards last season, and saw his ypc drop half a yard, coming off of a 350+ carry season. Basically, RBs do NOT fare well the year after getting that high of a workload.

This presents two problems to Rudi Johnson, both arising from the fact that he's already a pretty low ypc RB (4.0 last season). Problem #1 is that, if his ypc drops any, he's going to need an even GREATER workload this season to produce any numbers (sort of like Ricky Williams, who actually had more carries when he ran for 1300 than he did when he ran for 1800). The greater workload drastically increases his risk of injury. Problem #2 is that, since his ypc is already so low, and since his backup RB is so talented and fresh, any drop in his ypc might be enough to warrent Perry at least getting a look.

As such, I think that Chris Perry is a HUGE upside RB this season, and definitely worth a late round flier. If he stays Johnson's backup, I don't think he has much value, but I think he's the 2nd most likely backup to see his starter go down by midseason.

For the record, the 1st most likely backup to see his starter go down is Derrick Blaylock. Not only is Curtis Martin 32 (which doesn't worry me too much), he got more carries than even Johnson last season, with a total of 371. That is NOT a good sign. I don't like gambling on injuries, but this 350+ carries trend has proven accurate so many times, that I simply refuse to bet against it. I don't own Johnson or Martin in a single one of my leagues. I'm also leery of Corey Dillon, who had 345 carries in 15 games, although I do own him in one league (I'm extremely deep at RB, and I'll try to move him after 3-4 weeks when his value is high).
Hmmmm interesting ???How accurate has this stat been over the last 5 years ??

I may drop Travis Henry for Perry - knowing this new info
I'm planning on posting sometime with the complete data set, but here's what happened to every 350+ carry back since 2000.2000-

Jerome Bettis-

Year N: 16 games, 355 carries, 1341 yards, 8 TDs

Year N+1: 11 games, 225, 1072, 4 TDs

Edgerrin James-

Year N: 16 games, 387/1709/13

Year N+1: 6 games, 151/662/3

Eddie George-

Year N: 16 games, 403/1509/14

Year N+1: 16 games, 315/939/5

2001-

Stephen Davis-

Year N: 16 games, 356/1432/5

Year N+1: 12 games, 207/820/7

2002-

LaDainian Tomlinson-

Year N: 16 games, 372/1683/14

Year N+1: 16 games, 313/1648/13

Ricky Williams-

Year N: 16 games, 383/1853/16

Year N+1: 16 games, 392/1372/9

2003-

Deuce McAllister-

Year N: 16 games, 351/1641/8

Year N+1: 14 games, 269/1074/9

Ahman Green-

Year N: 16 games, 355/1883/15

Year N+1: 15 games, 259/1163/7

Jamal Lewis-

Year N: 16 games, 387/2066/14

Year N+1: 12 games, 235/1006/7

Ricky Williams-

Year N: 16 games, 392/1372/9

Year N+1: 0 games, 0/0/0 (retired)

2004-

Shaun Alexander-

Year N: 16 games, 353/1696/16

Year N+1: ???

Rudi Johnson-

Year N: 16 games, 361/1454/12

Year N+1: ???

Curtis Martin-

Year N: 16 games, 371/1697/12

Year N+1: ???

Conclusions-

Of the 10 instances since 2000, only once has a player held his value after a 350+ carry season (Tomlinson 2002). It's certainly not IMPOSSIBLE for a 350+ carry back to finish next season among the league's top 10, but I think there's enough data here that I don't have any qualms about avoiding them altogether.

 

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