Ciatrick Fason will outscore Larry Johnson in Week 14 (1 Viewer)

[Hoss Bog]

I've got a fairly extensive math model for weekly NFL projections, and after running the numbers before this week's games, I am staring at something I've got to share with all you fantasy heads. Even after adjusting for Fason's inferior running skills and giving away a number of carries to Mewelde Moore, as well as all 3rd down opportunities, the algorithm projects Fason to gain 101 total yards and score 0.9 touchdowns, good for 15.5 fantasy points. Larry Johnson, on the other hand, projects to gain 96 total yards and 0.8 touchdowns against the Ravens, which equates to 14.4 fantasy points.

Now I'm not saying I would start Fason over LJ this weekend, or any other back outside of LT2 for that matter cause it's Team ROC we're talking about, but I didn't realize what a solid start Fason was for the opening round of the playoffs. In one league where I've got Ronnie Brown sitting on my bench, I'll be starting Fason over Sammy Morris, Wali Lundy, DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. Overall, he's ranked as the 11th overall running back using the math model, which has been pretty accurate all season.

Ciatrick is not really a moose at 6'0" and just over 200 pounds, but this will be the first time he really gets to showcase his skills as a starter and he should get the looks around the goal line that make waiver wire pickups so valuable. Some of you probably remember him back in 2004 with the Florida Gators when he led the SEC in rushing with over 1,250 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he slipped in the draft because of a 4.65 40 at the combine. Against the Lions though, he's not going need break-away speed to be effective.

Of course I'll look like Rod Favra if Chester Taylor actually plays, but he wasn't at practice on Thursday and is still listed as doubtful, so I hopefully that will happen. Normally, I wouldn't feel compelled to come out of the woodwork to write this much about a sleeper, but here we are, all fighting for our playoff lives and Bob Henry doesn't even include him in his Offensive Sleepers column! (And another Fason thread turned into a NCAA discussion). If he's still on your waiver wire, get your Fason.

 

[MLBrandow]

Quite an outlandish prediction, but I'll be quite impressed if this is true...

96 yards would be pretty much Johnson's worst output this year though (save for PIT, and possibly Miami if he doesn't score).

It is not uncommon though that a backup RB of however marginal talent would put up triple digit rushing totals late in the season.

Would like to know the math behind your predictions, but I presume you're not sharing.

 

[R.White]

I agree that Fason could be a decent "sleeper" this week, but you can't ignore A.Pinner. He is licking his chops to beat down the Lions. If Pinner gets into the game and breaks off a few nice runs (very possible vs. Lions) Fason may not see the field as much? It's also very possible that C.Taylor is playing possum, and starts with his sore ribs?

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Quite an outlandish prediction, but I'll be quite impressed if this is true...

With KC at home and Minny on the road I also think that it will be a tough prediction to come true.But I like your cohones in making it.

 

[mobraten]

Quite an outlandish prediction, but I'll be quite impressed if this is true...

With KC at home and Minny on the road I also think that it will be a tough prediction to come true.But I like your cohones in making it.

remember Larry Ned!

 

[Hoss Bog]

MLBrandow... funny you bring up Pittsburgh and Miami, those were two of the only other times all season that Larry J wasn't inside the top 10 in the running back rankings.

Week 6 against the Steelers (ranked 10th), he was projected at 81 rushing yards, 41 receiving yards and about half a touchdown, so the model definitely overshot that one, but not by much compared to the rest of the web.

Week 10 against the 'Phins (ranked 16th), he was projected at 64 rushing, 38 receiving and 0.8 touchdowns. While his overall yardage was a bit lower in reality, his projected fantasy points (15) was pretty darn close to his actual that week (14.9). Going into this Miami game he has rushed for 132, 155 and 172 yards in consecutive games while scoring seven touchdowns, so needless to say the people who pay for me to make this model were highly skeptical since no other fantasy site they could find has LJ ranked lower than 3rd that week. Obviously, the algorithm misses badly all the time (like any projections), so me pointing out one great (lucky?) prediction of the past does not guarantee it will be dead on this week.

As for the math behind the model, I've got no problem sharing some of the parts but obviously I can't lay the whole thing out there. It is probably pretty similar to what Dodds and co have developed, and I wouldn't be on their site if I didn't really like and respect the work they are doing. Using regression analysis, I basically broke down play-by-play data of the past 6 years to develop an algorithm for total rushing and passing yardage and touchdowns for a given week. It includes hundreds of variables, ranging from obvious (defensive yards per carry) to specific (opponent's offensive success on 2nd down as an indicator of field position and likelihood that you will be playing from ahead or behind by midgame) to unique (running back net expected scoring - it's own algorithm - which is to say that every game state has an expected number of points that will be scored in that drive, and you find the total expected points that any given play adds or takes away. To use some hypothetical examples, a team may expect to score 2.7 points on a 1st-and-10 from their own 35. A 2 yard run would actually drop expected scoring since it would give you 2nd-and-8 from the 37 which you may expect 2.5 total points from, so the player has cost the team 0.2 points. Alternatively, a 1 yard run on 3rd-and-1 from their own 44 may take the expected scoring on that drive from 2.9 to 3.4, so you would credit the runner with adding 0.5 points for the team. Basically it's nerdy.). I have tried to strip out as much subjective analysis as possible, but obviously some things you can't avoid, like guessing who is going to see a majority of the carries on any given Sunday. I've broken down the play calling tendencies of every team, but I couldn't tell you how many times I've been burned on Mike/Tatum and similar situations where the coach gives no indication of his game plan. As R.White said, maybe they go with Pinner and Fason hardly sees the ball at all. It's part of the business of projections.

Anyway, I don't expect people to agree that Fason is going to blow up this weekend, and I don't need props if he does (although feel free to call me out when he doesn't!), but I just wanted to share what I've found through my research. A lot of times on this board you will get advice like, "yo, start this clown cause he's wicked fast, yo" or "that guy sucks at quarterback and oh yeah, Duke sucks... go Buckeyes!". Hope some of this helps.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

MLBrandow... funny you bring up Pittsburgh and Miami, those were two of the only other times all season that Larry J wasn't inside the top 10 in the running back rankings. Week 6 against the Steelers (ranked 10th), he was projected at 81 rushing yards, 41 receiving yards and about half a touchdown, so the model definitely overshot that one, but not by much compared to the rest of the web.Week 10 against the 'Phins (ranked 16th), he was projected at 64 rushing, 38 receiving and 0.8 touchdowns. While his overall yardage was a bit lower in reality, his projected fantasy points (15) was pretty darn close to his actual that week (14.9). Going into this Miami game he has rushed for 132, 155 and 172 yards in consecutive games while scoring seven touchdowns, so needless to say the people who pay for me to make this model were highly skeptical since no other fantasy site they could find has LJ ranked lower than 3rd that week. Obviously, the algorithm misses badly all the time (like any projections), so me pointing out one great (lucky?) prediction of the past does not guarantee it will be dead on this week.As for the math behind the model, I've got no problem sharing some of the parts but obviously I can't lay the whole thing out there. It is probably pretty similar to what Dodds and co have developed, and I wouldn't be on their site if I didn't really like and respect the work they are doing. Using regression analysis, I basically broke down play-by-play data of the past 6 years to develop an algorithm for total rushing and passing yardage and touchdowns for a given week. It includes hundreds of variables, ranging from obvious (defensive yards per carry) to specific (opponent's offensive success on 2nd down as an indicator of field position and likelihood that you will be playing from ahead or behind by midgame) to unique (running back net expected scoring - it's own algorithm - which is to say that every game state has an expected number of points that will be scored in that drive, and you find the total expected points that any given play adds or takes away. To use some hypothetical examples, a team may expect to score 2.7 points on a 1st-and-10 from their own 35. A 2 yard run would actually drop expected scoring since it would give you 2nd-and-8 from the 37 which you may expect 2.5 total points from, so the player has cost the team 0.2 points. Alternatively, a 1 yard run on 3rd-and-1 from their own 44 may take the expected scoring on that drive from 2.9 to 3.4, so you would credit the runner with adding 0.5 points for the team. Basically it's nerdy.). I have tried to strip out as much subjective analysis as possible, but obviously some things you can't avoid, like guessing who is going to see a majority of the carries on any given Sunday. I've broken down the play calling tendencies of every team, but I couldn't tell you how many times I've been burned on Mike/Tatum and similar situations where the coach gives no indication of his game plan. As R.White said, maybe they go with Pinner and Fason hardly sees the ball at all. It's part of the business of projections. Anyway, I don't expect people to agree that Fason is going to blow up this weekend, and I don't need props if he does (although feel free to call me out when he doesn't!), but I just wanted to share what I've found through my research. A lot of times on this board you will get advice like, "yo, start this clown cause he's wicked fast, yo" or "that guy sucks at quarterback and oh yeah, Duke sucks... go Buckeyes!". Hope some of this helps.

Dude - You rock. Don't ever change.And its Go Gators!

 

[TURFPACK]

I found this on draft sharks last night.

* Chester Taylor is doubtful *

Vikings RB Chester Taylor (ribs) is listed as doubtful. Ciatrick Fason would start in his place. Brad Childress is reportedly a huge Fason fan. Apparently the ex-Gator RB had a shoulder problem from August to November, otherwise he would have been ahead of Mewelde Moore on the depth chart all along.

Posted on Dec 06, 2006 - 5:22 PM

 

[PsychoMan]

you might be convincing me to start fason because chesty is out and i dunno what to think about dunn.

let's assume chester will not play. what # of carries are we really to expect out of fason, mewelde & others? i'm not sure i feel too comfortable thinking fason can get 20+ ...

i also think one of the biggest factors may be how well minnesota is able to stay in the game, and how much respect detroit gives minnesota's starting QB (who is it btw?)

how is fason in terms of receiving out of the backfield? chester's been averaging about 3 rec for 20 yds per game ... will these receptions go to mewelde since he has proven to be a solid receiver out of the backfield?

 

[BigTex]

MLBrandow... funny you bring up Pittsburgh and Miami, those were two of the only other times all season that Larry J wasn't inside the top 10 in the running back rankings. Week 6 against the Steelers (ranked 10th), he was projected at 81 rushing yards, 41 receiving yards and about half a touchdown, so the model definitely overshot that one, but not by much compared to the rest of the web.Week 10 against the 'Phins (ranked 16th), he was projected at 64 rushing, 38 receiving and 0.8 touchdowns. While his overall yardage was a bit lower in reality, his projected fantasy points (15) was pretty darn close to his actual that week (14.9). Going into this Miami game he has rushed for 132, 155 and 172 yards in consecutive games while scoring seven touchdowns, so needless to say the people who pay for me to make this model were highly skeptical since no other fantasy site they could find has LJ ranked lower than 3rd that week. Obviously, the algorithm misses badly all the time (like any projections), so me pointing out one great (lucky?) prediction of the past does not guarantee it will be dead on this week.As for the math behind the model, I've got no problem sharing some of the parts but obviously I can't lay the whole thing out there. It is probably pretty similar to what Dodds and co have developed, and I wouldn't be on their site if I didn't really like and respect the work they are doing. Using regression analysis, I basically broke down play-by-play data of the past 6 years to develop an algorithm for total rushing and passing yardage and touchdowns for a given week. It includes hundreds of variables, ranging from obvious (defensive yards per carry) to specific (opponent's offensive success on 2nd down as an indicator of field position and likelihood that you will be playing from ahead or behind by midgame) to unique (running back net expected scoring - it's own algorithm - which is to say that every game state has an expected number of points that will be scored in that drive, and you find the total expected points that any given play adds or takes away. To use some hypothetical examples, a team may expect to score 2.7 points on a 1st-and-10 from their own 35. A 2 yard run would actually drop expected scoring since it would give you 2nd-and-8 from the 37 which you may expect 2.5 total points from, so the player has cost the team 0.2 points. Alternatively, a 1 yard run on 3rd-and-1 from their own 44 may take the expected scoring on that drive from 2.9 to 3.4, so you would credit the runner with adding 0.5 points for the team. Basically it's nerdy.). I have tried to strip out as much subjective analysis as possible, but obviously some things you can't avoid, like guessing who is going to see a majority of the carries on any given Sunday. I've broken down the play calling tendencies of every team, but I couldn't tell you how many times I've been burned on Mike/Tatum and similar situations where the coach gives no indication of his game plan. As R.White said, maybe they go with Pinner and Fason hardly sees the ball at all. It's part of the business of projections. Anyway, I don't expect people to agree that Fason is going to blow up this weekend, and I don't need props if he does (although feel free to call me out when he doesn't!), but I just wanted to share what I've found through my research. A lot of times on this board you will get advice like, "yo, start this clown cause he's wicked fast, yo" or "that guy sucks at quarterback and oh yeah, Duke sucks... go Buckeyes!". Hope some of this helps.

As a CT owner I've picked up Fason, hopefully we'll know who's starting this weekend. If I win I'm IN, I'll be watching this one very closely. Thanks for sharing your analysis.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

I picked him up in 2 leagues with playoff games.

In one league I plan on starting him over Chester (unless his outlook improves and Foster)

In another league (again unless Chester improves) I think that I will start him over a somewhat banged up MaGahee ( and over Sammy Morris and Fargas)

 

[Todem]

I've got a fairly extensive math model for weekly NFL projections, and after running the numbers before this week's games, I am staring at something I've got to share with all you fantasy heads. Even after adjusting for Fason's inferior running skills and giving away a number of carries to Mewelde Moore, as well as all 3rd down opportunities, the algorithm projects Fason to gain 101 total yards and score 0.9 touchdowns, good for 15.5 fantasy points. Larry Johnson, on the other hand, projects to gain 96 total yards and 0.8 touchdowns against the Ravens, which equates to 14.4 fantasy points.

Now I'm not saying I would start Fason over LJ this weekend, or any other back outside of LT2 for that matter cause it's Team ROC we're talking about, but I didn't realize what a solid start Fason was for the opening round of the playoffs. In one league where I've got Ronnie Brown sitting on my bench, I'll be starting Fason over Sammy Morris, Wali Lundy, DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. Overall, he's ranked as the 11th overall running back using the math model, which has been pretty accurate all season.

Ciatrick is not really a moose at 6'0" and just over 200 pounds, but this will be the first time he really gets to showcase his skills as a starter and he should get the looks around the goal line that make waiver wire pickups so valuable. Some of you probably remember him back in 2004 with the Florida Gators when he led the SEC in rushing with over 1,250 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he slipped in the draft because of a 4.65 40 at the combine. Against the Lions though, he's not going need break-away speed to be effective.

Of course I'll look like Rod Favra if Chester Taylor actually plays, but he wasn't at practice on Thursday and is still listed as doubtful, so I hopefully that will happen. Normally, I wouldn't feel compelled to come out of the woodwork to write this much about a sleeper, but here we are, all fighting for our playoff lives and Bob Henry doesn't even include him in his Offensive Sleepers column! (And another Fason thread turned into a NCAA discussion). If he's still on your waiver wire, get your Fason.

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

you might be convincing me to start fason because chesty is out and i dunno what to think about dunn.let's assume chester will not play. what # of carries are we really to expect out of fason, mewelde & others? i'm not sure i feel too comfortable thinking fason can get 20+ ...i also think one of the biggest factors may be how well minnesota is able to stay in the game, and how much respect detroit gives minnesota's starting QB (who is it btw?)how is fason in terms of receiving out of the backfield? chester's been averaging about 3 rec for 20 yds per game ... will these receptions go to mewelde since he has proven to be a solid receiver out of the backfield?

Im gonna start Fason for Chester in a head TD socring system, only. MMoore is clearly the 3rd down back. Local radio here is Detroit reported Chester missed Practice again Thursday, and Fason is in line to start. Pinner could get some carries if Fason struggles. I think Brad is starting for Minny, dont worry, Minnesota will be in the game, as a matter of fact they will win quite easily.

 

[Hoss Bog]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

 

[PahtyTom]

While you've got the model out and all....Who's it say should have a better day VY or Rivers and Bryant or Caldwell? LOL

On a serious note, this is a spectacular post. Whether it proves right in this week's instance or not, it seems to be a very noteworthy and intelligent model that you have developed Hoss. It's very intriguing, as I think this kind of next level thinking is the future.

 

[Tong Po]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

Is there a movie version? I hate to read.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

Great Book.

 

[PsychoMan]

ok so you won't give us the whole formula, but any chance you can give your top 30 or so RBs for week 14? it might help us determine whether or not we like your formula & advice or not

ETA - btw, it sounds great and it is a great post, but i'd be curious to see how a list of RBs rank in comparison to one another

 

[Todem]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on stats to help evaluate how to attack and defend against a team. I played baseball through college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all likleyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merley disagreeing with your statistical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guys like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

 

[PahtyTom]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

 

[Donny Loved Bowling]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Apparently you are not so big on spelling...

 

[Todem]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Apparently you are not so big on spelling...

It's called typo's when your at work and typing very fast.Get a life.

 

[Todem]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

All the Vikings can do is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.

 

[PahtyTom]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

All the Vikings can sdo is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.

So the Vikings can run the ball with a "marginal talent" like Fason? Cool.

 

[Capt Hook]

Thanks for sharing the info Hoss Bog

BTW in the updated projections/rankings, Dodds has Fason getting 18 carries for 65 yards and 0.4 TD (with a few receptions) - and no mention of Pinner. Moore is listed with a few carries and several receptions.

The Lions DS slightly below NFL team average (115 yards per game) against the run, allowing 127

They are worse against the pass

 

[Todem]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

All the Vikings can sdo is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.

So the Vikings can run the ball with a "marginal talent" like Fason? Cool.

The Vikings are a running team. What is not clear to you? If your game planing against the Vikings tell me what is the first thing that would jump out at you?Oh yeah they have a guy close to Social Security at QB, a back up who is hurt and green rookie. MMMMM what will the Vikings try to do all day as they have been all season? Oh yeah run the ball. And yes they will run it with Fason, Moore, whomever. Shut that run down, and force them to pass with that awesome passing attack.

Are you ok man?

 

[Todem]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

All the Vikings can sdo is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.

So the Vikings can run the ball with a "marginal talent" like Fason? Cool.

Here is another nugget for ya genius. If Fason was so good why did they sign Chester Taylor? Fason was a very good back in college. I watched his whole career at Florida. How much have you seen of Fason other than last week? He is a back-up who has decent potential but up to this point has proven to be a marginal talent. Otheriwse why is he not starting? Why? Oh yeah the Vikings knew he is not that type of player yet. He may never be. Go start a Wali Lundy thead while your at it.

 

[thatguythere]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

All the Vikings can do is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.

In case you haven't noticed the Lions aren't real good at forcing anything...well except forcing their fans to endure the most pathetic franchise in the history of pro football.

 

[The Jacket]

Typical "genius if I'm right, means nothing if I'm wrong" type of projection.

We'll see.

Personally, I don't see it at all. LJ's going to score (because the Chiefs don't get shutout at Arrowhead and it's normally going to be Johnson doing the scoring), and he'll get enough carries to gain at least 70+ yards.

The Ravens are good, but they always have been, and that didn't stop the Chiefs absolutely owning the Ravens in recent matchups. Heck, they could hold him to 3 yards per carry, and with the carries he's probably going to get that's 90 yards.

 

[Todem]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

All the Vikings can do is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.

In case you haven't noticed the Lions aren't real good at forcing anything...well except forcing their fans to endure the most pathetic franchise in the history of pro football.

That is correct.

 

[PahtyTom]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

All the Vikings can sdo is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.

So the Vikings can run the ball with a "marginal talent" like Fason? Cool.

The Vikings are a running team. What is not clear to you? If your game planing against the Vikings tell me what is the first thing that would jump out at you?Oh yeah they have a guy close to Social Security at QB, a back up who is hurt and green rookie. MMMMM what will the Vikings try to do all day as they have been all season? Oh yeah run the ball. And yes they will run it with Fason, Moore, whomever. Shut that run down, and force them to pass with that awesome passing attack.

Are you ok man?

I'm ok man. You made a hypocritical statement and just don't know that you did, or are trying to defend it. In reality, you are wrong or conflicting on many different aspects of your statements. The assumption that Fason is a marginal talent compared to Chester is unkown. The assumption that because the Lions choose to shut down the run, that they will be able to even with a bad run defense is . Saying Fason is a marginal talent, but that the Vikings will still run the ball because that is what they do, but then saying he won't have a good day because a bad run defense will all the sudden stop him because they want to because the Minnesota QBs are no good because blah blah blah...It's silly. Don't talk down to people, especially when you are making a flimsy argument.

 

[PahtyTom]

And the fact that you are assuming Fason is no good because he is a backup who hasn't gotten the chance to start, and then use Chester Taylor as the measuring stick is hilarious on so many levels.

 

[Todem]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

All the Vikings can sdo is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.

So the Vikings can run the ball with a "marginal talent" like Fason? Cool.

The Vikings are a running team. What is not clear to you? If your game planing against the Vikings tell me what is the first thing that would jump out at you?Oh yeah they have a guy close to Social Security at QB, a back up who is hurt and green rookie. MMMMM what will the Vikings try to do all day as they have been all season? Oh yeah run the ball. And yes they will run it with Fason, Moore, whomever. Shut that run down, and force them to pass with that awesome passing attack.

Are you ok man?

I'm ok man. You made a hypocritical statement and just don't know that you did, or are trying to defend it. In reality, you are wrong or conflicting on many different aspects of your statements. The assumption that Fason is a marginal talent compared to Chester is unkown. The assumption that because the Lions choose to shut down the run, that they will be able to even with a bad run defense is . Saying Fason is a marginal talent, but that the Vikings will still run the ball because that is what they do, but then saying he won't have a good day because a bad run defense will all the sudden stop him because they want to because the Minnesota QBs are no good because blah blah blah...It's silly. Don't talk down to people, especially when you are making a flimsy argument.

Here are some facts.Both teams stink.

One team can run the ball ( thus far with Chester) One team can't stop the run. One team can't pass. One team can pass. One team can stop the run well (Vikings) but can't really stop the pass.

So what is going to give?

The Vikings will still try to run the ball down Detroits throat while the Lions should ( and I am assuming this) try to do everything they can to stop the run and force them to pass since they are very bad in that department.

What will help Detroit stop the run? Well Fason is not better than Chester Taylor. Fact is by the simple action that he has not sniffed the field this season ( I know he was hurt early in the year). And will now only get some PT because their best player is hurt.

Fasons lack of great talent will help Detroit slow the run down. Or maybe they are so bad at stopping run it will not matter and Fason will have a great game.

The whole point of this thread is Fason will outproduce LJ.

Not going to happen imo.

I say the won't because of 2 things.

1) He is not that good

2) And Detroit will key on the run even more because that is all the Vikings can do to have a chance to win.

And I am not talking down to you. We are making points to one another and if your offended by the way I express that....sorry.

Peace.

 

[Verbal Kint]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis.

You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

Great book, even if he ridicules a high school buddy of mine. Should be required reading for every FFL geek out there.

 

[Todem]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis.

You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

Great book, even if he ridicules a high school buddy of mine. Should be required reading for every FFL geek out there.

I will pick it up.

 

[PahtyTom]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

All the Vikings can sdo is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.

So the Vikings can run the ball with a "marginal talent" like Fason? Cool.

The Vikings are a running team. What is not clear to you? If your game planing against the Vikings tell me what is the first thing that would jump out at you?Oh yeah they have a guy close to Social Security at QB, a back up who is hurt and green rookie. MMMMM what will the Vikings try to do all day as they have been all season? Oh yeah run the ball. And yes they will run it with Fason, Moore, whomever. Shut that run down, and force them to pass with that awesome passing attack.

Are you ok man?

I'm ok man. You made a hypocritical statement and just don't know that you did, or are trying to defend it. In reality, you are wrong or conflicting on many different aspects of your statements. The assumption that Fason is a marginal talent compared to Chester is unkown. The assumption that because the Lions choose to shut down the run, that they will be able to even with a bad run defense is . Saying Fason is a marginal talent, but that the Vikings will still run the ball because that is what they do, but then saying he won't have a good day because a bad run defense will all the sudden stop him because they want to because the Minnesota QBs are no good because blah blah blah...It's silly. Don't talk down to people, especially when you are making a flimsy argument.

Here are some facts.Both teams stink.

One team can run the ball ( thus far with Chester) One team can't stop the run. One team can't pass. One team can pass. One team can stop the run well (Vikings) but can't really stop the pass.

So what is going to give?

The Vikings will still try to run the ball down Detroits throat while the Lions should ( and I am assuming this) try to do everything they can to stop the run and force them to pass since they are very bad in that department.

What will help Detroit stop the run? Well Fason is not better than Chester Taylor. Fact is by the simple action that he has not sniffed the field this season ( I know he was hurt early in the year). And will now only get some PT because their best player is hurt.

Fasons lack of great talent will help Detroit slow the run down. Or maybe they are so bad at stopping run it will not matter and Fason will have a great game.

The whole point of this thread is Fason will outproduce LJ.

Not going to happen imo.

I say the won't becuase of 2 things.

1) He is not that good

2) And Detroit will key on the run even more beucase that is all the Vikings can do to have a chacne to win.

And I am not talking down to you. We are making points to one another and if your offended by the way I express that....sorry.

Peace.

Alright Todem, that was good stuff. Apology accepted but it's no big deal. Now I have a reason to track this terrible game.

 

[Todem]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on Stat's to help evalute how to attack and defend against a team. I played Baseball thorugh college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all liklyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merly disagreeing with your statisical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guy's like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

Why would the Lions do everything to stop the run if, like you say, Fason is a marginal talent? I don't think we know what kind of production Fason is capable of at this level, much like we weren't so sure what other backups were capable of before getting a starting spot. But, that's why I think the Fason projection is dicey (but I think Hoss knows that). I don't know how the model works, but I'm sure the projections are more accurate with the more data that is available, and since there just is not much data on Fason in the NFL I would suspect that the results could vary greatly.

All the Vikings can sdo is run the ball. If I were the Lions I would force the pass. Simple.

So the Vikings can run the ball with a "marginal talent" like Fason? Cool.

The Vikings are a running team. What is not clear to you? If your game planing against the Vikings tell me what is the first thing that would jump out at you?Oh yeah they have a guy close to Social Security at QB, a back up who is hurt and green rookie. MMMMM what will the Vikings try to do all day as they have been all season? Oh yeah run the ball. And yes they will run it with Fason, Moore, whomever. Shut that run down, and force them to pass with that awesome passing attack.

Are you ok man?

I'm ok man. You made a hypocritical statement and just don't know that you did, or are trying to defend it. In reality, you are wrong or conflicting on many different aspects of your statements. The assumption that Fason is a marginal talent compared to Chester is unkown. The assumption that because the Lions choose to shut down the run, that they will be able to even with a bad run defense is . Saying Fason is a marginal talent, but that the Vikings will still run the ball because that is what they do, but then saying he won't have a good day because a bad run defense will all the sudden stop him because they want to because the Minnesota QBs are no good because blah blah blah...It's silly. Don't talk down to people, especially when you are making a flimsy argument.

Here are some facts.Both teams stink.

One team can run the ball ( thus far with Chester) One team can't stop the run. One team can't pass. One team can pass. One team can stop the run well (Vikings) but can't really stop the pass.

So what is going to give?

The Vikings will still try to run the ball down Detroits throat while the Lions should ( and I am assuming this) try to do everything they can to stop the run and force them to pass since they are very bad in that department.

What will help Detroit stop the run? Well Fason is not better than Chester Taylor. Fact is by the simple action that he has not sniffed the field this season ( I know he was hurt early in the year). And will now only get some PT because their best player is hurt.

Fasons lack of great talent will help Detroit slow the run down. Or maybe they are so bad at stopping run it will not matter and Fason will have a great game.

The whole point of this thread is Fason will outproduce LJ.

Not going to happen imo.

I say the won't becuase of 2 things.

1) He is not that good

2) And Detroit will key on the run even more beucase that is all the Vikings can do to have a chacne to win.

And I am not talking down to you. We are making points to one another and if your offended by the way I express that....sorry.

Peace.

Alright Todem, that was good stuff. Apology accepted but it's no big deal. Now I have a reason to track this terrible game.

LOL. Cool. Now I will keep on eye on this "Dog of the week game as well"Be well.

 

[Verbal Kint]

Hugs.

 

[bjabrad]

My oh my, now I have seen it all. Mathematical formulas to predict human outcome in a football game. Vegas would love you hog. Can you do that for Craps too?

I had watched Fason throughout his career in Florida. Good back. The Vikings stink. They have no passing game. Fason will not outproduce LJ.

Todem, you should read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You would be surprised at how many teams and coaches in the NFL rely on advanced statistical analysis for player valuation, game plans and even play calling.

I am big on stats to help evaluate how to attack and defend against a team. I played baseball through college as well and studying pitchers and tendancies is all good and vital to success. What I don't believe in is putting statistical data above talent and human emotion. LJ is clearly a superior player and will in all likleyhood outperform Fason who has proven nothing. The Vikings do not have anything resembling a passing attack and although the Lions are a bad team they will do everything to stop the run and force the pass. Fason is a marginal talent unlike Chester Taylor who has proven to be a good runner. LJ will be force fed all day against the Ravens.Common Sense will prevail in that matchup. I am merley disagreeing with your statistical analysis that Fason makes a better start than LJ. I am not really big on math models to predict outcomes. I rather look at the players, the match-up's what team is playing well etc etc etc. It may be a simplified approach, but when you have guys like Colston being taken in the draft in the 7th round you can throw all that statistical analysis out the window and ask yourself this "is the kid a football player" and "can he make plays". Speed, height weight is way overrated year in year out.

1. I thought BAL has a better rush def than pass and can actually be passed on. I think LJ will have to get his yds through the dump off pass to help KC move the chains.2. I think you underestimate the quality of backups. Given opportunity and put in the right situation most backups perform very well and MIN offensive line gives Fason a very good situation.

3. Anybody that played for Florida and is in the NFL has a legitimate shot at being a high performer. Florida gets their pick of skill/speed position players every year and Fason played well on that level already,,,I think you're selling him short.

It wouldn't shock me at all if Fason put up better numbers than LJ this week and I'll be starting them both as well as Betts and will keep MJD on my bench this week. Too many good options.

 

[The Jacket]

It wouldn't shock me at all if Fason put up better numbers than LJ this week and I'll be starting them both as well as Betts and will keep MJD on my bench this week. Too many good options.

Why in the hell would you bench MJD, facing the COLTS, for ANY of the three you mentioned - let alone ALL of them?

 

[MLBrandow]

MLBrandow... funny you bring up Pittsburgh and Miami, those were two of the only other times all season that Larry J wasn't inside the top 10 in the running back rankings. Anyway, I don't expect people to agree that Fason is going to blow up this weekend, and I don't need props if he does (although feel free to call me out when he doesn't!), but I just wanted to share what I've found through my research. A lot of times on this board you will get advice like, "yo, start this clown cause he's wicked fast, yo" or "that guy sucks at quarterback and oh yeah, Duke sucks... go Buckeyes!". Hope some of this helps.

I brought up PIT and MIA because they were his worst two outputs, and you have him nearing that this week at home in december.I don't wholly agree with you on Fason, but would not be surprised to see him explode myself. I would also similarly not be surprised to see him fail to eclipse 16 yards rushing.I'm a big Moore supporter, but in seeing Fason play in High School and College, I'm inclined to believe he's much better than the 200lb goal-line carrier that Mike Tice tried to make him into.LJ has been averaging about 150/2 per game for his career. I would be surprised if he's shut down to merely 100/1. I say merely because he's a stud.But it is not a stretch at all to predict that a late-season RB with something to prove in his first start of the year would light it up. It happens all the time, even with terrible RBs (S. Gado, W. Green, D. Foster come to mind quickly).That said though, I would be quite impressed if you're correct.Also, about half of this thread shoud be deleted for pointless tangential drivel.It's easy to say "YOUR STUPID FASON WILL NOT OUTPERFORM LJ MARK IT DOWN"....Not so easy to give some quality analysis for a bold prediction.If Fason nears LJ, I'll be impressed.Just curious, what is your overall +/- % accuracy in this math modeling you've been doing? How long have you been doing it?

 

[jafo]

I think Chester plays this week.

 

[PsychoMan]

ok so you won't give us the whole formula, but any chance you can give your top 30 or so RBs for week 14? it might help us determine whether or not we like your formula & advice or not ETA - btw, it sounds great and it is a great post, but i'd be curious to see how a list of RBs rank in comparison to one another

hossbag where you at? care to share what else your formula shows us this week?

 

[Hoss Bog]

Lots of good posts going on here, not sure if I'll be able to hit on everything.

Regarding the projections, I am employed full time as sports analyst and this model is used for another website as well as by a few of the ESPN shows, so I'm not sure I should be posting it all here. I will email email Bryant and/or Dodds to see if it is alright for me to post a link, but I don't want to come off as a spammer so I'll wait till I hear back from them.

As for Fason vs LJ, like I said in my very first post, I would start Johnson cause he is a proven workhorse and could go off against any defense. The projection algorithm has the two within 10 total yards and 0.1 touchdowns, with Fason slightly ahead. As I said in my first post, but was probably not as clear as I should have been, the reason I thought I should post this is because I was surprised by what the model projected and thought that people may want to know that Fason makes a great play for this one week since I didn't see him mentioned in the Offensive Sleepers article. Available in most leagues this week, he really does fit the true definition of a sleeper and could make an impact for some of the high stakes fantasy playoffs a lot of you sharks take part in. Like any piece of fantasy news or advice, you should merely take this opinion into account when setting your lineup.

A bunch of people have pointed out that Fason is a backup and that Vikings passing game stinks and that the Lions are going to try to stop the run. These are some of the most basic pieces of football knowledge out there and I would say that a majority of fantasy players in the country would sit or not even bother picking up Fason because of facts like these. Honestly, why bother going to fantasy websites if that is how you are going to make your lineup decisions, based on what everyone already knows? The people who win fantasy leagues take chances and go beyond the basic Joe Theisman game breakdown to figure out how to get the most out of every move they make. Will starting Warrick Dunn (or some other 'proven' back) lose the league for you? Maybe, maybe not. But before you go sticking Dunn in your lineup without thinking twice about it, realize that there may be a 100 yard, 1 TD running back sitting on your waiver wire.

So Fason may fail because the Lions will be at home, stacking against the run since the passing game isn't much of a threat and a backup running back will be in the backfield. Doesn't that sound a lot like Detroit's last home game, against Joey Harrington and the Dolphins? Ronnie Brown left that game near halftime with a broken hand and with Miami ahead 14-10. In comes the dynamic duo of Sammy Morris and Travis Minor (backups), playing on the road with the lead (so the Lions are expecting the run), and they manged to combine for 118 yards on 18 carries. As a team that day, Miami averaged 5.3 yards a carry on 35 carries. You may point out that Harrington had a great game, but his passes were largely set up by the ground game. Perhaps the Lions will do a better job this week, but the Vikings are a better running team than Miami and I don't see much difference between Fason and Morris/Minor.

Lastly, thanks to those who said thanks. What I'm doing is not groundbreaking by any means, as the FBG staff can tell you since they have been doing similar models for years. Another thing they can tell you is that projecting an individual player's output is ridiculously hard, and even the most accurate projections in the business are way off a decent amount of the time.

 

[Marc Levin]

Quite an outlandish prediction, but I'll be quite impressed if this is true...96 yards would be pretty much Johnson's worst output this year though Would like to know the math behind your predictions, but I presume you're not sharing.

Against the Baltimore D?I think LJ will get near 100 - on about 35 carries. LT's toughest game this year was v. Bal.

 

[Marc Levin]

LJ has been averaging about 150/2 per game for his career. I would be surprised if he's shut down to merely 100/1. I say merely because he's a stud.

Here's where I have to point out the flaw in your reasoning. See above.It's not Fason blowing up - it's LJ being held down.

 

[The Jacket]

It's not Fason blowing up - it's LJ being held down.

But even if LJ is held down, Fason will need to blow up to outscore Johnson.

 

[bjabrad]

It wouldn't shock me at all if Fason put up better numbers than LJ this week and I'll be starting them both as well as Betts and will keep MJD on my bench this week. Too many good options.

Why in the hell would you bench MJD, facing the COLTS, for ANY of the three you mentioned - let alone ALL of them?

I just don't think that he'll have as many touches as a 50/50 split RBBC than Betts or Fason although when you factor in MJD's return yardage that I get at 1 pt/25 yds I could always reconsider. I admit, it's a tough call and the other thing that weighs in against Fason would be the uncertainty of Taylor playing and the number of carries that Pinner might recieve. OMG,,,what have I done???

 

[PsychoMan]

Assuming Fason gets the same amount of carries that Chester would normally get (how do we even know this), are people confident that Fason would perform as well as Chester? If so, then I would say start Fason ahead of most RBs this week because I had high hopes for Chester.

 

[Marc Levin]

It's not Fason blowing up - it's LJ being held down.

But even if LJ is held down, Fason will need to blow up to outscore Johnson.

Yes - but MLBrandow's main point is:

I would be surprised if he's shut down to merely 100/1.

On the flip side, Fason v. Lions D. 'nuff said there.Hoss Bog's mnathematical formula is probably simply inserting Fason for Taylor and giving Fason's skill set all of Taylor's touches. He should probably not do that as Moore is gonna be really big, too.I'm not agreeing with Hoss Bog - I am disagreeing with ML's analysis that it will be a surprise for LJ to be held under 100 yards and to only 1 TD. It would be more surprising if he gets much more than l00 yards.I give LJ a good chance at getting one rushing TD, but I give neither back much chance of 2.