***Cincinnati at Tennessee*** (-3.5) 47.5u The Smashville in Nashville (4 Viewers)

[-OZ-]

Can’t blame them for going for it. But i wanted a lead!

 

[rockaction]

Football is so much more fun now

That was dumb. 

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

That hand on the thigh stopped a 220 lb RB? 

 

[travdogg]

Oh boy. 

There were go. That's questionable right here. Why do that? 

Why not? Worst case scenario it's still tie. If you get it, it's a 2 point lead, and forces the Bengals to get an extra score, as they can't tie it with a 2pt. I would have called a PA pass there though.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Not being results oriented but I think kicking there was the play to take the lead

 

[rockaction]

That's really questionable. A lead in football changes how the entire game is played by both sides. Teams adjust to score -- it is not a constant. 

 

[The Frankman]

That hand on the thigh stopped a 220 lb RB? 

Weight off balance means a lot.

If Henry stuck out the ball with his arms, he scores. But he brought his arms straight down.

 

[East Coast Bias]

So good to see Henry back

 

[Wildcat]

100% agree for going for 2 here.

Why?  Either with 1 or 2, you take the lead and a 2 doesn’t protect you from a FG anyway 

 

[The_Man]

That’s where the art of coaching needs to marry the science of analytics. If you get your butt kicked for a half, and then still take the lead, that has to be so demoralizing for the opponent. Go ahead and take the lead 

 

[rockaction]

Why not? Worst case scenario it's still tie. If you get it, it's a 2 point lead, and forces the Bengals to get an extra score, as they can't tie it with a 2pt. I would have called a PA pass there though.

Because a lead forces a team into scoring at least once before overtime. You're behind. It changes the entire complexity of the game. It's game theory, not looking ahead too far. 

 

[massraider]

Unless they changed the rules, you only need to win by one. Kick it

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

I hope they lose by one now.

 

[rockaction]

That’s where the art of coaching needs to marry the science of analytics. If you get your butt kicked for a half, and then still take the lead, that has to be so demoralizing for the opponent. Go ahead and take the lead 

I don't think analytics would even support that. I'll have to check Twitter on wEXP or some other stat like it. I have a hard time believing that extra point means that much more than avoiding a tie score. 

 

[The_Man]

That was dumb. 

I don’t agree with the call. But it’s way more entertaining now because of it, which was my point 

 

[rockaction]

I don’t agree with the call. But it’s way more entertaining now because of it, which was my point 

Very true. 

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Weight off balance means a lot.

I love Henry, but that should not have kept him out of the endzone.

 

[identikit]

Fake to Henry and a pass to a TE was the play to call there

 

[The Frankman]

Because a lead forces a team into scoring at least once before overtime. You're behind. It changes the entire complexity of the game. It's game theory, not looking ahead too far. 

Does being behind midway in the 2nd really mean much for a team that can score as explosively as the Bengals? It's not like this is halfway through the 4th quarter.

 

[The_Man]

Moment of peril for the Titans. Bengals get second half kickoff, so a scoring drive here and one after halftime and it could be over. Need to stop them 

 

[IHEARTFF]

Bengals almost certainly scoring a td here

 

[rockaction]

Does being behind midway in the 2nd really mean much for a team that can score as explosively as the Bengals? It's not like this is halfway through the 4th quarter.

"How explosively have they scored today?" would be my retort, I guess. You make a point, but I think that the application of a lead means more than the extra point on the scoreboard, especially when the chance of that extra point meaning anything, game theory wise, is relatively slim. 

There's a 62.4 percent chance of making it from the one for a two-point conversion. That doesn't strike me as enough to merit ditching a lead for a +90% chance at the lead. 

 

[The_Man]

He was down anyway 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Very fortunate bounce.

 

[-OZ-]

"How explosively have they scored today?" would be my retort, I guess. You make a point, but I think that the application of a lead means more than the extra point on the scoreboard, especially when the chance of that extra point meaning anything, game theory wise, is relatively slim. 

There's a 62.4 percent chance of making it from the one for a two-point conversion. That doesn't strike me as enough to merit ditching a lead for a +90% chance at the lead. 

I’d like to think Henry makes it 80% chances of making it. 
but he didn’t, so here we are

 

[rockaction]

Everybody's mileage may vary on the two-point thing, though. It likely won't mean the game, but the pressure on Cinci would have manifest had Tennessee been able to slow them down this drive and take the psychological and game-calling advantage of the lead at the half and bring it to bear. 

 

[The_Man]

Ambulance looked like a fake trailer from 30 Rock or something 

 

[travdogg]

"How explosively have they scored today?" would be my retort, I guess. You make a point, but I think that the application of a lead means more than the extra point on the scoreboard, especially when the chance of that extra point meaning anything, game theory wise, is relatively slim. 

There's a 62.4 percent chance of making it from the one for a two-point conversion. That doesn't strike me as enough to merit ditching a lead for a +90% chance at the lead. 

I'd argue anything above a 50% chance makes it worth it. Who cares about a lead in the 2nd quarter. Its not gonna finish at 7-6.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Very fortunate bounce.

I think he was down 

 

[rockaction]

It's probably really a toss-up, that extra point. Does an extra point at a 62.4% success rate (per ESPN analytics retweeted by Aaron Schatz on my Twitter feed) mean more than an almost assured one-point lead. 

I don't know if numbers could ever do that justice because we don't know how teams adjust playcalling with that in mind. 

 

[-OZ-]

Everybody's mileage may vary on the two-point thing, though. It likely won't mean the game, but the pressure on Cinci would have manifest had Tennessee been able to slow them down this drive and take the psychological and game-calling advantage of the lead at the half and bring it to bear. 

I think you’re overselling the 1 point lead here. 

 

[Mister CIA]

It would be interesting to know what Derrick Henry's career stats are on carries from the one yard line.

 

[travdogg]

Thought they could have missed in a Mixon run on 1st or 2nd down. 

 

[rockaction]

I'd argue anything above a 50% chance makes it worth it. Who cares about a lead in the 2nd quarter. Its not gonna finish at 7-6.

Coaches do. They adjust their play calls. But we're (I'm) beating this to death. I'm confident in my position as stated and open to being wrong. Now I'll drop it. 

 

[rockaction]

I think you’re overselling the 1 point lead here. 

Possibly. But I think people are diminishing the insignificance of a two-point lead. What's that mean? More than the lead? That's the question. 

 

[The_Man]

I might not have called that second timeout.

 

[The Frankman]

Oh what a KILLER sack

 

[Osaurus]

Wow. This D is awesome. 

 

[-OZ-]

Simmons!!!

 

[travdogg]

Terrible 3 plays there from Burrow. Throw it away.

 

[rockaction]

Burrow with a terrible sack there. 

 

[The_Man]

Burrow can NOT take that sack 

 

[oswizzle]

Burrow getting buried 

 

[Joe Mammy]

I know cincy gets the 2nd half kick but I just got Tenny even money pk. I LIKE IT!

 

[The Frankman]

Welcome to the postseason, kid.

 

[Osaurus]

 

[Cowboysfan8]

That kid is nails 

 

[travdogg]

Of these 5 sacks, I'd say at least 3 are on Burrow.

 

[massraider]

That kid is cold blooded

 

[-OZ-]

This McPherson kid is pretty good