CJ Spiller (1 Viewer)

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

1) Where would you guys rank CJ Spiller if he was in this year's RB class, knowing what we know about him now on the Bills? My thoughts are after Ingram, Williams, and LeShoure.

2) Where would you rank Spiller overall for dynasty PPR RB's? I think about 20-25 seems about right.

3) What does his future look like? Can we expect good things to come?

 

[Harjiran]

1) Where would you guys rank CJ Spiller if he was in this year's RB class, knowing what we know about him now on the Bills? My thoughts are after Ingram, Williams, and LeShoure. 2) Where would you rank Spiller overall for dynasty PPR RB's? I think about 20-25 seems about right.3) What does his future look like? Can we expect good things to come?

Last year Spiller looked studly in preseason and then he seemed to disappear during the course of the year. Frankly I was surprised because the guy looked like the real deal. But I heard his pass-protection was lacking and his ability to run between the tackles was questioned. Perhaps some homers can speak to that. I've never been a fan of Chan Gailey and I have to wonder whether Spiller was ever put in a position to succeed. This year, assuming Chan gets it figured out and the pieces fall into place, I think Spiller's ceiling is DMAC v.2010 and his floor (assuming Chan continues to suck) is Felix Jones v.2009.So my instinct says yes, the talent is there and you can probably expect good things to come, but only after Chan Gailey has moved on and set some other NFL franchise back 2-3 years. C.J Spiller is a hold, IMO. Dude looked electric in preseason last year. Worth it to wait and see what happens in Buffalo. I'd need to know where Ingram, Williams and LeShoure wind up before comparing them with Spiller in terms of ranking.

 

[Thorpe]

1) Where would you guys rank CJ Spiller if he was in this year's RB class, knowing what we know about him now on the Bills? My thoughts are after Ingram, Williams, and LeShoure. 2) Where would you rank Spiller overall for dynasty PPR RB's? I think about 20-25 seems about right.3) What does his future look like? Can we expect good things to come?

Last year Spiller looked studly in preseason and then he seemed to disappear during the course of the year. Frankly I was surprised because the guy looked like the real deal. But I heard his pass-protection was lacking and his ability to run between the tackles was questioned. Perhaps some homers can speak to that. I've never been a fan of Chan Gailey and I have to wonder whether Spiller was ever put in a position to succeed. This year, assuming Chan gets it figured out and the pieces fall into place, I think Spiller's ceiling is DMAC v.2010 and his floor (assuming Chan continues to suck) is Felix Jones v.2009.So my instinct says yes, the talent is there and you can probably expect good things to come, but only after Chan Gailey has moved on and set some other NFL franchise back 2-3 years. C.J Spiller is a hold, IMO. Dude looked electric in preseason last year. Worth it to wait and see what happens in Buffalo. I'd need to know where Ingram, Williams and LeShoure wind up before comparing them with Spiller in terms of ranking.

Chan Gailey worked a miracle with the Buffalo offense, as soon as he figured out Fitz was his better QB, so I don't see what your problem with him is. He had a patchwork O Line and numerous injuries to his WRs, but the Bills still scored enough to win a lot of games.Spiller has to be higher than 25 on a dynasty list right now, because he is so young. I don't think he puts up big numbers next year, but the years after when Fred Jackson moves on he should be a consistent performer.

 

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver]

1) Where would you guys rank CJ Spiller if he was in this year's RB class, knowing what we know about him now on the Bills? My thoughts are after Ingram, Williams, and LeShoure. 2) Where would you rank Spiller overall for dynasty PPR RB's? I think about 20-25 seems about right.3) What does his future look like? Can we expect good things to come?

Last year Spiller looked studly in preseason and then he seemed to disappear during the course of the year. Frankly I was surprised because the guy looked like the real deal. But I heard his pass-protection was lacking and his ability to run between the tackles was questioned. Perhaps some homers can speak to that. I've never been a fan of Chan Gailey and I have to wonder whether Spiller was ever put in a position to succeed. This year, assuming Chan gets it figured out and the pieces fall into place, I think Spiller's ceiling is DMAC v.2010 and his floor (assuming Chan continues to suck) is Felix Jones v.2009.So my instinct says yes, the talent is there and you can probably expect good things to come, but only after Chan Gailey has moved on and set some other NFL franchise back 2-3 years. C.J Spiller is a hold, IMO. Dude looked electric in preseason last year. Worth it to wait and see what happens in Buffalo. I'd need to know where Ingram, Williams and LeShoure wind up before comparing them with Spiller in terms of ranking.

Chan Gailey worked a miracle with the Buffalo offense, as soon as he figured out Fitz was his better QB, so I don't see what your problem with him is. He had a patchwork O Line and numerous injuries to his WRs, but the Bills still scored enough to win a lot of games.Spiller has to be higher than 25 on a dynasty list right now, because he is so young. I don't think he puts up big numbers next year, but the years after when Fred Jackson moves on he should be a consistent performer.

Relax man....no one is ripping Spiller here. I think 20-25 dynasty ranking is about right. Off the top of my head I'll start naming RB's I'd have ahead of him......ADP, Foster, Chris Johnson, McCoy, Charles, Rice, MJD, Mendy, Hillis, Stewart, McFadden, Best, Forte, Moreno, Gore, DeAngelo, Bradshaw, Steven Jackson (2-3 great years left), Greene, Mathews, Tuner (2-3 good years left on a great team), and 3 rookies (Ingram, Williams, LeShoure). So if you want to take 5 of these guys off the list Spiller would be #20....if not, he'll be ~ 25. Seems about right to me. You could even make arguments for Wells if he can ever stay healthy.Do you own Spiller in a dynasty league? Sure he has upside, but there are FAR safer bets when looking for RB production over the next 3 years.

 

[Nero]

I'd still rank Spiller ahead of all these guys based on physical ability. I also don't think Buffalo is a bad spot, playing along side a 30 year old Fred Jackson. The players in this year's class would have to fall into a situation where they are the clear starter for me to move them past Spiller.

 

[Shutout]

I would rank him right next to Reggie Bush because that's all he is. Its not the talent, its the use.

The minute the Bills took him last year, it killed his ff value. They almost immediately started talking about "flex" this and "dynamic packages", etc and you could see it from a mile away; these guys fell in love with his speed and thought (rightfully)they needed to find ways to liven up the Bills' offense. The problem with that is its counter to FF RB success in that its not a situaiton where you get this guy in the game and he becomes LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson. The Bills just aren't that team.

If you followed the Bills the past few years, you knew because of lack of talent and injuries and the way they really never turned the run game over to one bell cow (and couldn't because they never play with a lead), this was not ideal. Even when Lynch was looking really good, his stats were diluted by the use of FJAX. When they traded their studly O-lineman, that was it: you knew it wasn't going to be good.

Spiller is enticing and teasing. He COULD do the job. But he's one of these guys that is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing the wrong positon. By the time the Bills improve and build their lines up, Spiller will be like Bush; a nice threat that is still relatively young, but the idea will be to get the guy that can run inside and such as the team figures they will be ready for that by then and Spiller will be a piece but not THE piece.

 

[doowain]

I would rank him right next to Reggie Bush because that's all he is. Its not the talent, its the use.The minute the Bills took him last year, it killed his ff value. They almost immediately started talking about "flex" this and "dynamic packages", etc and you could see it from a mile away; these guys fell in love with his speed and thought (rightfully)they needed to find ways to liven up the Bills' offense. The problem with that is its counter to FF RB success in that its not a situaiton where you get this guy in the game and he becomes LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson. The Bills just aren't that team. If you followed the Bills the past few years, you knew because of lack of talent and injuries and the way they really never turned the run game over to one bell cow (and couldn't because they never play with a lead), this was not ideal. Even when Lynch was looking really good, his stats were diluted by the use of FJAX. When they traded their studly O-lineman, that was it: you knew it wasn't going to be good.Spiller is enticing and teasing. He COULD do the job. But he's one of these guys that is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing the wrong positon. By the time the Bills improve and build their lines up, Spiller will be like Bush; a nice threat that is still relatively young, but the idea will be to get the guy that can run inside and such as the team figures they will be ready for that by then and Spiller will be a piece but not THE piece.

Sigh.Yet another person pigeon-holing Spiller as a Reggie Bush clone.I'm not quite sure how you can definitively say that Spiller will be used the same way after just his rookie year. Seems quite a bit premature. I know what you've read. We've all read it. I just think writing him off in that way is a big mistake.Even going back to college, Spiller showed much more willingness to run inside than Bush. And that's been Bush's downfall as a primary runner in the NFL. He relies too much on his speed and, as a result, hasn't been given the reigns in NO. I just don't think that's the same runner that Spiller is. And, given the opportunity this year, he will prove the naysayers wrong. The Bills are just so void of special talent that I just don't see how they can possibly keep him off the field a majority of the snaps.Just my 2 cents.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I would rank him right next to Reggie Bush because that's all he is. Its not the talent, its the use.The minute the Bills took him last year, it killed his ff value. They almost immediately started talking about "flex" this and "dynamic packages", etc and you could see it from a mile away; these guys fell in love with his speed and thought (rightfully)they needed to find ways to liven up the Bills' offense. The problem with that is its counter to FF RB success in that its not a situaiton where you get this guy in the game and he becomes LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson. The Bills just aren't that team. If you followed the Bills the past few years, you knew because of lack of talent and injuries and the way they really never turned the run game over to one bell cow (and couldn't because they never play with a lead), this was not ideal. Even when Lynch was looking really good, his stats were diluted by the use of FJAX. When they traded their studly O-lineman, that was it: you knew it wasn't going to be good.Spiller is enticing and teasing. He COULD do the job. But he's one of these guys that is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing the wrong positon. By the time the Bills improve and build their lines up, Spiller will be like Bush; a nice threat that is still relatively young, but the idea will be to get the guy that can run inside and such as the team figures they will be ready for that by then and Spiller will be a piece but not THE piece.

Sigh.Yet another person pigeon-holing Spiller as a Reggie Bush clone.I'm not quite sure how you can definitively say that Spiller will be used the same way after just his rookie year. Seems quite a bit premature. I know what you've read. We've all read it. I just think writing him off in that way is a big mistake.Even going back to college, Spiller showed much more willingness to run inside than Bush. And that's been Bush's downfall as a primary runner in the NFL. He relies too much on his speed and, as a result, hasn't been given the reigns in NO. I just don't think that's the same runner that Spiller is. And, given the opportunity this year, he will prove the naysayers wrong. The Bills are just so void of special talent that I just don't see how they can possibly keep him off the field a majority of the snaps.Just my 2 cents.

Thank you...anyone saying they know how hes going to be used that isn't inside the organization is plain kidding themselves

 

[thriftyrocker]

Full article

 

[Shutout]

I would rank him right next to Reggie Bush because that's all he is. Its not the talent, its the use.The minute the Bills took him last year, it killed his ff value. They almost immediately started talking about "flex" this and "dynamic packages", etc and you could see it from a mile away; these guys fell in love with his speed and thought (rightfully)they needed to find ways to liven up the Bills' offense. The problem with that is its counter to FF RB success in that its not a situaiton where you get this guy in the game and he becomes LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson. The Bills just aren't that team. If you followed the Bills the past few years, you knew because of lack of talent and injuries and the way they really never turned the run game over to one bell cow (and couldn't because they never play with a lead), this was not ideal. Even when Lynch was looking really good, his stats were diluted by the use of FJAX. When they traded their studly O-lineman, that was it: you knew it wasn't going to be good.Spiller is enticing and teasing. He COULD do the job. But he's one of these guys that is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing the wrong positon. By the time the Bills improve and build their lines up, Spiller will be like Bush; a nice threat that is still relatively young, but the idea will be to get the guy that can run inside and such as the team figures they will be ready for that by then and Spiller will be a piece but not THE piece.

Sigh.Yet another person pigeon-holing Spiller as a Reggie Bush clone.I'm not quite sure how you can definitively say that Spiller will be used the same way after just his rookie year. Seems quite a bit premature. I know what you've read. We've all read it. I just think writing him off in that way is a big mistake.Even going back to college, Spiller showed much more willingness to run inside than Bush. And that's been Bush's downfall as a primary runner in the NFL. He relies too much on his speed and, as a result, hasn't been given the reigns in NO. I just don't think that's the same runner that Spiller is. And, given the opportunity this year, he will prove the naysayers wrong. The Bills are just so void of special talent that I just don't see how they can possibly keep him off the field a majority of the snaps.Just my 2 cents.

Thank you...anyone saying they know how hes going to be used that isn't inside the organization is plain kidding themselves

So basically, 90% of the people that post threads in these forums ask people to give an opinion. And in this case the OP specifically asked everyone to predict the future because that is exactly what you are doing when you assign a future rank to a person. But when someone actually does it, THEN they don't know anything.It amazes me to no end that people can come on here and writes paragraphs being very specific in describing how WHAT THEY SAW translates into a solid tendency and then someone comes behind them and writes a two sentence quip and posts a smiley face sign.So the guy that tells you they have been watching this team, points out that the team lost its most talented o-lineman, points out that the team lacks talent and Spiller will be 2-3 years older by the time the team becomes relevant enough to be competitive consistently, points out that FJAX is really a whole lot better than people want to give him credit for...all that stuff is just swept away with a flick of the wrist...NOT because anyone offers a counter point..but because the response IS nothing more that "can't predict future...".YET, the same people that scoff are the same people that SAY ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the people that just randomly drop one line about how Spiller will be the #20-25RB. If anything, THAT is predicting the future because it states that these people have reviewed all the factors, put together a list, and that is where he fell...exactly...#20-#25. If you don't agree with my points, offer a counter. Show me why the outlined facts of the Bills over the past few years WON'T lead to the trend continuing. Show me how its all going to turn around and how you come to reason that this kid who is in a bad oportunity situation is going to do what he hasn't done so far. Show me something more than a random response that actually accuses the wrong person of "predicting the future".In the meantime, here's the real and simpler truth:If you have knowledgeable people come on here and post good information, we may all learn something from it.If not, all you're going to see is the people that have Spiller on their FF teams, or are trying to drive his value up, come on here and defend him. And in the meantime, because its not trendy or popular, people are going to completely dismiss the other stuff that is fact and has already been said.

 

[MTskibum]

So the guy that tells you they have been watching this team, points out that the team lost its most talented o-lineman, points out that the team lacks talent and Spiller will be 2-3 years older by the time the team becomes relevant enough to be competitive consistently, points out that FJAX is really a whole lot better than people want to give him credit for...all that stuff is just swept away with a flick of the wrist...NOT because anyone offers a counter point..but because the response IS nothing more that "can't predict future...".

I would rather have Fjax on my fantasy team than Spiller. Fjax might only give me 1-2 more years of production, but Spiller might never give any production at all. No way would I have spiller in my top 30. Fred Jackson was the second best runningback in the league at breaking tackles last season, and was #4 for breaking tackles in 2009. A runningback is not going to do anything at all in Buffalo unless they can make something out of nothing, and Fred Jackson is capable of that.

Links to broken tackles:

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/03/24/elusive-rating-2010/

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2010/05/06/the-elusive-rating/

 

[eaglesfan7]

FJax is 30 now I believe and we know what happens to backs when they hit the 30 mark...

 

[Tackling Dummies]

I would rather have Fjax on my fantasy team than Spiller. Fjax might only give me 1-2 more years of production, but Spiller might never give any production at all. No way would I have spiller in my top 30. Fred Jackson was the second best runningback in the league at breaking tackles last season, and was #4 for breaking tackles in 2009. A runningback is not going to do anything at all in Buffalo unless they can make something out of nothing, and Fred Jackson is capable of that.

Not sure I'd put the stud label on Fred Jackson (I own him in one league), but you'll get nearly identical production to Forte at a reduced price. Usage-wise in 11, Spiller and Reggie Bush could be easily be twins (COP/slot receiver).

 

[MTskibum]

FJax is 30 now I believe and we know what happens to backs when they hit the 30 mark...

Yeah, with Fjax you probably are going to get only 1-2 years of production, but that is 1-2 years more than spiller is ever going to give your fantasy team.

Not sure I'd put the stud label on Fred Jackson (I own him in one league), but you'll get nearly identical production to Forte at a reduced price. Usage-wise in 11, Spiller and Reggie Bush could be easily be twins (COP/slot receiver).

His production does not match his talent. He is not a stud runningback as far as fantasy is concerned, but that is because of his situation. If he wasnt in the worst possible situation in the league more people would recognize him for the stud he is.Fjax has enough talent to overcome the Bill's ineptness.

 

[Dreamer]

FJax is 30 now I believe and we know what happens to backs when they hit the 30 mark...

Yeah, with Fjax you probably are going to get only 1-2 years of production, but that is 1-2 years more than spiller is ever going to give your fantasy team.

How can you possibly write Spiller off already? He is very talented.

 

[MTskibum]

FJax is 30 now I believe and we know what happens to backs when they hit the 30 mark...

Yeah, with Fjax you probably are going to get only 1-2 years of production, but that is 1-2 years more than spiller is ever going to give your fantasy team.

How can you possibly write Spiller off already? He is very talented.

I see Thomas Jones in Arizona or Cedric Benson in Chicago when looking at spiller. Spiller does have average talent, and if he moved to a team that was above average on offense he might be a decent player. I just dont think he has enough talent to make it work in buffalo.

 

[I was in the pool]

People wrote off darren mcfadden too....

Spiller was rated higher than best and mathews pre draft with a score of 94. The dude is talented. It was his rookie year, the bills were constantly behind by 20 pts. and he had an established guy in front of him. Let us see more before we butt him in the 30s in terms of dynasty rankings....

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I would rank him right next to Reggie Bush because that's all he is. Its not the talent, its the use.The minute the Bills took him last year, it killed his ff value. They almost immediately started talking about "flex" this and "dynamic packages", etc and you could see it from a mile away; these guys fell in love with his speed and thought (rightfully)they needed to find ways to liven up the Bills' offense. The problem with that is its counter to FF RB success in that its not a situaiton where you get this guy in the game and he becomes LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson. The Bills just aren't that team. If you followed the Bills the past few years, you knew because of lack of talent and injuries and the way they really never turned the run game over to one bell cow (and couldn't because they never play with a lead), this was not ideal. Even when Lynch was looking really good, his stats were diluted by the use of FJAX. When they traded their studly O-lineman, that was it: you knew it wasn't going to be good.Spiller is enticing and teasing. He COULD do the job. But he's one of these guys that is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing the wrong positon. By the time the Bills improve and build their lines up, Spiller will be like Bush; a nice threat that is still relatively young, but the idea will be to get the guy that can run inside and such as the team figures they will be ready for that by then and Spiller will be a piece but not THE piece.

Sigh.Yet another person pigeon-holing Spiller as a Reggie Bush clone.I'm not quite sure how you can definitively say that Spiller will be used the same way after just his rookie year. Seems quite a bit premature. I know what you've read. We've all read it. I just think writing him off in that way is a big mistake.Even going back to college, Spiller showed much more willingness to run inside than Bush. And that's been Bush's downfall as a primary runner in the NFL. He relies too much on his speed and, as a result, hasn't been given the reigns in NO. I just don't think that's the same runner that Spiller is. And, given the opportunity this year, he will prove the naysayers wrong. The Bills are just so void of special talent that I just don't see how they can possibly keep him off the field a majority of the snaps.Just my 2 cents.

Thank you...anyone saying they know how hes going to be used that isn't inside the organization is plain kidding themselves

So basically, 90% of the people that post threads in these forums ask people to give an opinion. And in this case the OP specifically asked everyone to predict the future because that is exactly what you are doing when you assign a future rank to a person. But when someone actually does it, THEN they don't know anything.It amazes me to no end that people can come on here and writes paragraphs being very specific in describing how WHAT THEY SAW translates into a solid tendency and then someone comes behind them and writes a two sentence quip and posts a smiley face sign.So the guy that tells you they have been watching this team, points out that the team lost its most talented o-lineman, points out that the team lacks talent and Spiller will be 2-3 years older by the time the team becomes relevant enough to be competitive consistently, points out that FJAX is really a whole lot better than people want to give him credit for...all that stuff is just swept away with a flick of the wrist...NOT because anyone offers a counter point..but because the response IS nothing more that "can't predict future...".YET, the same people that scoff are the same people that SAY ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the people that just randomly drop one line about how Spiller will be the #20-25RB. If anything, THAT is predicting the future because it states that these people have reviewed all the factors, put together a list, and that is where he fell...exactly...#20-#25. If you don't agree with my points, offer a counter. Show me why the outlined facts of the Bills over the past few years WON'T lead to the trend continuing. Show me how its all going to turn around and how you come to reason that this kid who is in a bad oportunity situation is going to do what he hasn't done so far. Show me something more than a random response that actually accuses the wrong person of "predicting the future".In the meantime, here's the real and simpler truth:If you have knowledgeable people come on here and post good information, we may all learn something from it.If not, all you're going to see is the people that have Spiller on their FF teams, or are trying to drive his value up, come on here and defend him. And in the meantime, because its not trendy or popular, people are going to completely dismiss the other stuff that is fact and has already been said.

Personally ....I would rather read than post in these threads. I do not claim to know how talented c j spiller is or make a judgement on the bills line because they lost jason peters (who in some circles is considered overrated) . All I know is that Spiller was 9th pick in the freaking draft. I dont care who you think you are or who you talked to. If your a top 10 pick in the draft you have an immense amount of talent and potential. If they dont have the work ethic, get into the wrong crowd or have a big injury then that could derail them but,there is no way we can know that. I dont claim to know what goes on inside the huddle and neither should anyone else who isnt directly connected to the organization. Your free to write whatever you want but usually I only post when I have a question and hope Waldman or Bloom comes on to answer.

 

[Shutout]

I would rank him right next to Reggie Bush because that's all he is. Its not the talent, its the use.

The minute the Bills took him last year, it killed his ff value. They almost immediately started talking about "flex" this and "dynamic packages", etc and you could see it from a mile away; these guys fell in love with his speed and thought (rightfully)they needed to find ways to liven up the Bills' offense. The problem with that is its counter to FF RB success in that its not a situaiton where you get this guy in the game and he becomes LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson. The Bills just aren't that team.

If you followed the Bills the past few years, you knew because of lack of talent and injuries and the way they really never turned the run game over to one bell cow (and couldn't because they never play with a lead), this was not ideal. Even when Lynch was looking really good, his stats were diluted by the use of FJAX. When they traded their studly O-lineman, that was it: you knew it wasn't going to be good.

Spiller is enticing and teasing. He COULD do the job. But he's one of these guys that is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing the wrong positon. By the time the Bills improve and build their lines up, Spiller will be like Bush; a nice threat that is still relatively young, but the idea will be to get the guy that can run inside and such as the team figures they will be ready for that by then and Spiller will be a piece but not THE piece.

Sigh.Yet another person pigeon-holing Spiller as a Reggie Bush clone.

I'm not quite sure how you can definitively say that Spiller will be used the same way after just his rookie year. Seems quite a bit premature. I know what you've read. We've all read it. I just think writing him off in that way is a big mistake.

Even going back to college, Spiller showed much more willingness to run inside than Bush. And that's been Bush's downfall as a primary runner in the NFL. He relies too much on his speed and, as a result, hasn't been given the reigns in NO. I just don't think that's the same runner that Spiller is. And, given the opportunity this year, he will prove the naysayers wrong. The Bills are just so void of special talent that I just don't see how they can possibly keep him off the field a majority of the snaps.

Just my 2 cents.

Thank you...anyone saying they know how hes going to be used that isn't inside the organization is plain kidding themselves

So basically, 90% of the people that post threads in these forums ask people to give an opinion. And in this case the OP specifically asked everyone to predict the future because that is exactly what you are doing when you assign a future rank to a person. But when someone actually does it, THEN they don't know anything.It amazes me to no end that people can come on here and writes paragraphs being very specific in describing how WHAT THEY SAW translates into a solid tendency and then someone comes behind them and writes a two sentence quip and posts a smiley face sign.

So the guy that tells you they have been watching this team, points out that the team lost its most talented o-lineman, points out that the team lacks talent and Spiller will be 2-3 years older by the time the team becomes relevant enough to be competitive consistently, points out that FJAX is really a whole lot better than people want to give him credit for...all that stuff is just swept away with a flick of the wrist...NOT because anyone offers a counter point..but because the response IS nothing more that "can't predict future...".

YET, the same people that scoff are the same people that SAY ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the people that just randomly drop one line about how Spiller will be the #20-25RB. If anything, THAT is predicting the future because it states that these people have reviewed all the factors, put together a list, and that is where he fell...exactly...#20-#25.

If you don't agree with my points, offer a counter. Show me why the outlined facts of the Bills over the past few years WON'T lead to the trend continuing. Show me how its all going to turn around and how you come to reason that this kid who is in a bad oportunity situation is going to do what he hasn't done so far. Show me something more than a random response that actually accuses the wrong person of "predicting the future".

In the meantime, here's the real and simpler truth:

If you have knowledgeable people come on here and post good information, we may all learn something from it.

If not, all you're going to see is the people that have Spiller on their FF teams, or are trying to drive his value up, come on here and defend him. And in the meantime, because its not trendy or popular, people are going to completely dismiss the other stuff that is fact and has already been said.

Personally ....I would rather read than post in these threads. I do not claim to know how talented c j spiller is or make a judgement on the bills line because they lost jason peters (who in some circles is considered overrated) . All I know is that Spiller was 9th pick in the freaking draft. I dont care who you think you are or who you talked to. If your a top 10 pick in the draft you have an immense amount of talent and potential. If they dont have the work ethic, get into the wrong crowd or have a big injury then that could derail them but,there is no way we can know that. I dont claim to know what goes on inside the huddle and neither should anyone else who isnt directly connected to the organization. Your free to write whatever you want but usually I only post when I have a question and hope Waldman or Bloom comes on to answer.

Again, the entire point was its not about talent, its about opportunity and those are the points I outlined.

You don't necessarily have to be "inside the huddle" to be able to form a solid assessment of a team. I don't know the answer to this, but are Waldman or Bloom "inside the Bills huddle"? Point being, of course both thoese guys are great at what they do and we all listen to their points but its also likely that you have some people here that follow the Bills really closely and can give you very valid supporting infromation to suggest how things are going up there. I listen to guys on some of the call in shows all the time where regular fans call in and they know their local team's personnel, management, pulse of the team 10 times better than the "experts" hosting the show. Just because you have the microphone or the medium platform doesn't make you know more in all cases.

I outlined my points and I can see since posting that a good number of people have echoed some of those thoughts so all I'm saying is the information is there for you to consider. You have people posting that have put their biases aside and aren't caught up in the fact that they burned a top 4 rookie pick on the guy and are now looking for some moral support; we are telling you what we have seen and trying to give an idea of how much change is needed up there for the opportunity to improve enough to where the talent can shine.

no one has really said he doesn't have talent but the other factors hurt. So when you have people just popping off one line responses predicting that he will be #20-25 or better, I just think you really ought to challenge that. Think of it in these terms: for Spiller to be in that #20-#25 range (or better), and you assume that all the guys like ADP, Chris Johnson, Charles, Foster, rice, etc, etc, are going to be about the same; then you have to start pushing down guys like Ced Ben, Moreno, matthews, Best, Felix, and Blount to a point they are under Spiller so that Spiller can be top 20. I don't like Spiller's overall (talent AND opportunity) situation better than ANY of those guys, much less ALL of them. And I base that on what I saw play out last year.

 

[Jason Wood]

I would rank him right next to Reggie Bush because that's all he is. Its not the talent, its the use.The minute the Bills took him last year, it killed his ff value. They almost immediately started talking about "flex" this and "dynamic packages", etc and you could see it from a mile away; these guys fell in love with his speed and thought (rightfully)they needed to find ways to liven up the Bills' offense. The problem with that is its counter to FF RB success in that its not a situaiton where you get this guy in the game and he becomes LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson. The Bills just aren't that team. If you followed the Bills the past few years, you knew because of lack of talent and injuries and the way they really never turned the run game over to one bell cow (and couldn't because they never play with a lead), this was not ideal. Even when Lynch was looking really good, his stats were diluted by the use of FJAX. When they traded their studly O-lineman, that was it: you knew it wasn't going to be good.Spiller is enticing and teasing. He COULD do the job. But he's one of these guys that is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing the wrong positon. By the time the Bills improve and build their lines up, Spiller will be like Bush; a nice threat that is still relatively young, but the idea will be to get the guy that can run inside and such as the team figures they will be ready for that by then and Spiller will be a piece but not THE piece.

Sigh.Yet another person pigeon-holing Spiller as a Reggie Bush clone.I'm not quite sure how you can definitively say that Spiller will be used the same way after just his rookie year. Seems quite a bit premature. I know what you've read. We've all read it. I just think writing him off in that way is a big mistake.Even going back to college, Spiller showed much more willingness to run inside than Bush. And that's been Bush's downfall as a primary runner in the NFL. He relies too much on his speed and, as a result, hasn't been given the reigns in NO. I just don't think that's the same runner that Spiller is. And, given the opportunity this year, he will prove the naysayers wrong. The Bills are just so void of special talent that I just don't see how they can possibly keep him off the field a majority of the snaps.Just my 2 cents.

Thank you...anyone saying they know how hes going to be used that isn't inside the organization is plain kidding themselves

So basically, 90% of the people that post threads in these forums ask people to give an opinion. And in this case the OP specifically asked everyone to predict the future because that is exactly what you are doing when you assign a future rank to a person. But when someone actually does it, THEN they don't know anything.It amazes me to no end that people can come on here and writes paragraphs being very specific in describing how WHAT THEY SAW translates into a solid tendency and then someone comes behind them and writes a two sentence quip and posts a smiley face sign.So the guy that tells you they have been watching this team, points out that the team lost its most talented o-lineman, points out that the team lacks talent and Spiller will be 2-3 years older by the time the team becomes relevant enough to be competitive consistently, points out that FJAX is really a whole lot better than people want to give him credit for...all that stuff is just swept away with a flick of the wrist...NOT because anyone offers a counter point..but because the response IS nothing more that "can't predict future...".YET, the same people that scoff are the same people that SAY ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the people that just randomly drop one line about how Spiller will be the #20-25RB. If anything, THAT is predicting the future because it states that these people have reviewed all the factors, put together a list, and that is where he fell...exactly...#20-#25. If you don't agree with my points, offer a counter. Show me why the outlined facts of the Bills over the past few years WON'T lead to the trend continuing. Show me how its all going to turn around and how you come to reason that this kid who is in a bad oportunity situation is going to do what he hasn't done so far. Show me something more than a random response that actually accuses the wrong person of "predicting the future".In the meantime, here's the real and simpler truth:If you have knowledgeable people come on here and post good information, we may all learn something from it.If not, all you're going to see is the people that have Spiller on their FF teams, or are trying to drive his value up, come on here and defend him. And in the meantime, because its not trendy or popular, people are going to completely dismiss the other stuff that is fact and has already been said.

I think there's an important point to this. The Shark Pool is to foster discussion, and even if you disagree with someone there's a productive way to voice your disagreement, and then there are many ways to make said disagreement counterproductive. Ripping a guy as though his opinion is completely insignificant or ill informed simply because he doesn't draw the same conclusions you might is NOT helpful, to anyone.

 

[SproutDaddy]

FJax is 30 now I believe and we know what happens to backs when they hit the 30 mark...

What exactly happens to them? Curtis Martin won the rushing title when he was 31 or 32.

 

[Cassius]

If Spiller needs to wait for FJAX to fall apart before he becomes productive, then there's no way he's as good as the Bills thought he was at #9 or that most fantasy owners thought he was when they took him in the top 3 last year.

 

[eaglesfan7]

FJax is 30 now I believe and we know what happens to backs when they hit the 30 mark...

What exactly happens to them? Curtis Martin won the rushing title when he was 31 or 32.

First of all, you are comparing FJax to Curtis Martin. FJax has never been and never will be even close to the running back that Curtis Martin was. If you believe he is, you truly are lost.

 

[Nero]

If Spiller needs to wait for FJAX to fall apart before he becomes productive, then there's no way he's as good as the Bills thought he was at #9 or that most fantasy owners thought he was when they took him in the top 3 last year.

 

[SproutDaddy]

FJax is 30 now I believe and we know what happens to backs when they hit the 30 mark...

What exactly happens to them? Curtis Martin won the rushing title when he was 31 or 32.

First of all, you are comparing FJax to Curtis Martin. FJax has never been and never will be even close to the running back that Curtis Martin was. If you believe he is, you truly are lost.

I never compared the 2 running backs. I suggest you read my post again and maybe you might get what I was saying.

 

[eaglesfan7]

FJax is 30 now I believe and we know what happens to backs when they hit the 30 mark...

What exactly happens to them? Curtis Martin won the rushing title when he was 31 or 32.

First of all, you are comparing FJax to Curtis Martin. FJax has never been and never will be even close to the running back that Curtis Martin was. If you believe he is, you truly are lost.

I never compared the 2 running backs. I suggest you read my post again and maybe you might get what I was saying.

Whatever you say. We are talking about FJax and you brought up Curtis Martin. Take it for what you will.

 

[SproutDaddy]

FJax is 30 now I believe and we know what happens to backs when they hit the 30 mark...

What exactly happens to them? Curtis Martin won the rushing title when he was 31 or 32.

First of all, you are comparing FJax to Curtis Martin. FJax has never been and never will be even close to the running back that Curtis Martin was. If you believe he is, you truly are lost.

I never compared the 2 running backs. I suggest you read my post again and maybe you might get what I was saying.

Whatever you say. We are talking about FJax and you brought up Curtis Martin. Take it for what you will.

I was making a correlation between age and running backs. Martin was simply an example. I never said anything about Jackson being in Martin's class. But if Arian Foster can win the rushing title couldn't it be possible for Jackson to? Not likely, but it could happen. I wouldn't put Foster in the same class with Martin.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Whatever you say. We are talking about FJax and you brought up Curtis Martin. Take it for what you will.

I was making a correlation between age and running backs. Martin was simply an example. I never said anything about Jackson being in Martin's class. But if Arian Foster can win the rushing title couldn't it be possible for Jackson to? Not likely, but it could happen. I wouldn't put Foster in the same class with Martin.

I would say yes, it is possible but not likely. Regardless of mileage, running backs tend to lose their "burst" when they hit age 30. It goes back to the college days of playing in regards to mileage but sure, it could happen.

 

[Steed]

I would rank him right next to Reggie Bush because that's all he is. Its not the talent, its the use.The minute the Bills took him last year, it killed his ff value. They almost immediately started talking about "flex" this and "dynamic packages", etc and you could see it from a mile away; these guys fell in love with his speed and thought (rightfully)they needed to find ways to liven up the Bills' offense. The problem with that is its counter to FF RB success in that its not a situaiton where you get this guy in the game and he becomes LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson. The Bills just aren't that team. If you followed the Bills the past few years, you knew because of lack of talent and injuries and the way they really never turned the run game over to one bell cow (and couldn't because they never play with a lead), this was not ideal. Even when Lynch was looking really good, his stats were diluted by the use of FJAX. When they traded their studly O-lineman, that was it: you knew it wasn't going to be good.Spiller is enticing and teasing. He COULD do the job. But he's one of these guys that is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing the wrong positon. By the time the Bills improve and build their lines up, Spiller will be like Bush; a nice threat that is still relatively young, but the idea will be to get the guy that can run inside and such as the team figures they will be ready for that by then and Spiller will be a piece but not THE piece.

Sigh.Yet another person pigeon-holing Spiller as a Reggie Bush clone.I'm not quite sure how you can definitively say that Spiller will be used the same way after just his rookie year. Seems quite a bit premature. I know what you've read. We've all read it. I just think writing him off in that way is a big mistake.Even going back to college, Spiller showed much more willingness to run inside than Bush. And that's been Bush's downfall as a primary runner in the NFL. He relies too much on his speed and, as a result, hasn't been given the reigns in NO. I just don't think that's the same runner that Spiller is. And, given the opportunity this year, he will prove the naysayers wrong. The Bills are just so void of special talent that I just don't see how they can possibly keep him off the field a majority of the snaps.Just my 2 cents.

Thank you...anyone saying they know how hes going to be used that isn't inside the organization is plain kidding themselves

Why are people being so flippant about the Reggie Bush comparison? They have similar builds, running styles, used similarly in the offense and special teams, and both had underrated veterans in front of them. Even their numbers from their rookie years are close:Spiller - 74 carries, 283 yards, 3.8 ypc, 0 TDs, 24 receptions, 157 yards, 6.5 ypr, 1 TDBush - 155 carries, 565 yards, 3.6 ypc, 6 TDS, 88 receptions, 742 yards, 8.4 ypr, 2 TDsIt's only been a year, but Reggie actually was better in hindsight. Some of that has to do with the quality of the Saints offense.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I would rank him right next to Reggie Bush because that's all he is. Its not the talent, its the use.The minute the Bills took him last year, it killed his ff value. They almost immediately started talking about "flex" this and "dynamic packages", etc and you could see it from a mile away; these guys fell in love with his speed and thought (rightfully)they needed to find ways to liven up the Bills' offense. The problem with that is its counter to FF RB success in that its not a situaiton where you get this guy in the game and he becomes LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson. The Bills just aren't that team. If you followed the Bills the past few years, you knew because of lack of talent and injuries and the way they really never turned the run game over to one bell cow (and couldn't because they never play with a lead), this was not ideal. Even when Lynch was looking really good, his stats were diluted by the use of FJAX. When they traded their studly O-lineman, that was it: you knew it wasn't going to be good.Spiller is enticing and teasing. He COULD do the job. But he's one of these guys that is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing the wrong positon. By the time the Bills improve and build their lines up, Spiller will be like Bush; a nice threat that is still relatively young, but the idea will be to get the guy that can run inside and such as the team figures they will be ready for that by then and Spiller will be a piece but not THE piece.

Sigh.Yet another person pigeon-holing Spiller as a Reggie Bush clone.I'm not quite sure how you can definitively say that Spiller will be used the same way after just his rookie year. Seems quite a bit premature. I know what you've read. We've all read it. I just think writing him off in that way is a big mistake.Even going back to college, Spiller showed much more willingness to run inside than Bush. And that's been Bush's downfall as a primary runner in the NFL. He relies too much on his speed and, as a result, hasn't been given the reigns in NO. I just don't think that's the same runner that Spiller is. And, given the opportunity this year, he will prove the naysayers wrong. The Bills are just so void of special talent that I just don't see how they can possibly keep him off the field a majority of the snaps.Just my 2 cents.

Thank you...anyone saying they know how hes going to be used that isn't inside the organization is plain kidding themselves

Why are people being so flippant about the Reggie Bush comparison? They have similar builds, running styles, used similarly in the offense and special teams, and both had underrated veterans in front of them. Even their numbers from their rookie years are close:Spiller - 74 carries, 283 yards, 3.8 ypc, 0 TDs, 24 receptions, 157 yards, 6.5 ypr, 1 TDBush - 155 carries, 565 yards, 3.6 ypc, 6 TDS, 88 receptions, 742 yards, 8.4 ypr, 2 TDsIt's only been a year, but Reggie actually was better in hindsight. Some of that has to do with the quality of the Saints offense.

So your comparing 243 touches to 98? IMO under 100 touches is to small of a sample size for this to be a relevant comparison.

 

[Go deep]

I would rank him right next to Reggie Bush because that's all he is. Its not the talent, its the use.The minute the Bills took him last year, it killed his ff value. They almost immediately started talking about "flex" this and "dynamic packages", etc and you could see it from a mile away; these guys fell in love with his speed and thought (rightfully)they needed to find ways to liven up the Bills' offense. The problem with that is its counter to FF RB success in that its not a situaiton where you get this guy in the game and he becomes LeSean McCoy or Chris Johnson. The Bills just aren't that team. If you followed the Bills the past few years, you knew because of lack of talent and injuries and the way they really never turned the run game over to one bell cow (and couldn't because they never play with a lead), this was not ideal. Even when Lynch was looking really good, his stats were diluted by the use of FJAX. When they traded their studly O-lineman, that was it: you knew it wasn't going to be good.Spiller is enticing and teasing. He COULD do the job. But he's one of these guys that is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, playing the wrong positon. By the time the Bills improve and build their lines up, Spiller will be like Bush; a nice threat that is still relatively young, but the idea will be to get the guy that can run inside and such as the team figures they will be ready for that by then and Spiller will be a piece but not THE piece.

Sigh.Yet another person pigeon-holing Spiller as a Reggie Bush clone.I'm not quite sure how you can definitively say that Spiller will be used the same way after just his rookie year. Seems quite a bit premature. I know what you've read. We've all read it. I just think writing him off in that way is a big mistake.Even going back to college, Spiller showed much more willingness to run inside than Bush. And that's been Bush's downfall as a primary runner in the NFL. He relies too much on his speed and, as a result, hasn't been given the reigns in NO. I just don't think that's the same runner that Spiller is. And, given the opportunity this year, he will prove the naysayers wrong. The Bills are just so void of special talent that I just don't see how they can possibly keep him off the field a majority of the snaps.Just my 2 cents.

Thank you...anyone saying they know how hes going to be used that isn't inside the organization is plain kidding themselves

Why are people being so flippant about the Reggie Bush comparison? They have similar builds, running styles, used similarly in the offense and special teams, and both had underrated veterans in front of them. Even their numbers from their rookie years are close:Spiller - 74 carries, 283 yards, 3.8 ypc, 0 TDs, 24 receptions, 157 yards, 6.5 ypr, 1 TDBush - 155 carries, 565 yards, 3.6 ypc, 6 TDS, 88 receptions, 742 yards, 8.4 ypr, 2 TDsIt's only been a year, but Reggie actually was better in hindsight. Some of that has to do with the quality of the Saints offense.

So your comparing 243 touches to 98? IMO under 100 touches is to small of a sample size for this to be a relevant comparison.

I think less than 500 touches is too small a sample size. It is way too early to compare Spiller to anyone, especially Bush, who every small/quick rb gets compared to when someone thinks they are to small to be an every down back.

 

[doowain]

I think there's an important point to this. The Shark Pool is to foster discussion, and even if you disagree with someone there's a productive way to voice your disagreement, and then there are many ways to make said disagreement counterproductive. Ripping a guy as though his opinion is completely insignificant or ill informed simply because he doesn't draw the same conclusions you might is NOT helpful, to anyone.

Pretty sure I didn't "rip" anyone. Just voicing my opinion. And expressing my disgust with the umpteen comparisons I've seen to Reggie Bush.If your comment wasn't aimed at me, disregard this.

 

[eefflrat]

No talk really about Spiller. Is the market that dry? Are the Cowboys waiting on Demarco to call Spiller? I think Spiller would be foolish to sign in New Orleans to be a complementary back to Ingram, but maybe there is no serious interest out there. I know there is a free agent thread to talk about moves but thought I'd bump one up with Spiller's name in case someone is looking for any real info on him. I really thought he'd be a good fit in Philly, but at this point It's looking like wherever he goes it's a platoon situation. Any thoughts?

 

[Winning IS Everything]

He is in New Orleans for a visit now. Might sign there as well, taking the Pierre Thomas role. I think it is a good spot for him, NFL wise but not fantasy. I do not think he will get a lead back role anywhere though unless he goes to Jax or Oakland.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

He is in New Orleans for a visit now. Might sign there as well, taking the Pierre Thomas role. I think it is a good spot for him, NFL wise but not fantasy. I do not think he will get a lead back role anywhere though unless he goes to Jax or Oakland.

I had thought since they got rid of Sproles that Spiller would be perfect for the Saints but given the ap I never would have thought it possible, I guess it's possible now. It would make me feel a lot better about their recent trend if they did this. Spiller in that offense would be fantastic.

 

[Van Dyman]

Wrong thread, dude. Spiller is at Spiller is a Go

 

[FF Ninja]

It's a pretty good spot for him. Sproles finished top 10 in 0ppr in 2011. Had a similar season in 2012 but missed 3 games. Pierre Thomas squeezed into RB2 territory in 2013. Neither player is a slouch, but Spiller is better than both of them. He's a little sketchy in pass protection, but the Saints rarely use RBs to pass protect anyway. I think it is highly likely that Spiller ends up as a low-end RB1, high-end RB2 in 0ppr and a solid RB1 in ppr. Ingram hasn't exactly been durable, so CJ could see a fair amount of carries in addition to 70-80 receptions.

The funny thing about this old thread is that right after those posts comparing CJ to Reggie as being a gimmick player, Reggie actually put together back-to-back seasons of high workload on a slow surface and looked pretty good doing it.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

It's a pretty good spot for him. Sproles finished top 10 in 0ppr in 2011. Had a similar season in 2012 but missed 3 games. Pierre Thomas squeezed into RB2 territory in 2013. Neither player is a slouch, but Spiller is better than both of them. He's a little sketchy in pass protection, but the Saints rarely use RBs to pass protect anyway. I think it is highly likely that Spiller ends up as a low-end RB1, high-end RB2 in 0ppr and a solid RB1 in ppr. Ingram hasn't exactly been durable, so CJ could see a fair amount of carries in addition to 70-80 receptions.

The funny thing about this old thread is that right after those posts comparing CJ to Reggie as being a gimmick player, Reggie actually put together back-to-back seasons of high workload on a slow surface and looked pretty good doing it.

Spiller is better than both Sproles and Thomas?? Based on what?

 

[FF Ninja]

It's a pretty good spot for him. Sproles finished top 10 in 0ppr in 2011. Had a similar season in 2012 but missed 3 games. Pierre Thomas squeezed into RB2 territory in 2013. Neither player is a slouch, but Spiller is better than both of them. He's a little sketchy in pass protection, but the Saints rarely use RBs to pass protect anyway. I think it is highly likely that Spiller ends up as a low-end RB1, high-end RB2 in 0ppr and a solid RB1 in ppr. Ingram hasn't exactly been durable, so CJ could see a fair amount of carries in addition to 70-80 receptions.

The funny thing about this old thread is that right after those posts comparing CJ to Reggie as being a gimmick player, Reggie actually put together back-to-back seasons of high workload on a slow surface and looked pretty good doing it.

Spiller is better than both Sproles and Thomas?? Based on what?

Ability/potential. He might not be as versatile as Thomas, but give him all those targets and he'll get you more yards. Hell, I was thinking Thomas was pretty good inside the 5, but he only converts 36% of his goal line carries. Seems pretty mediocre. Thomas was a good utility player, but wasn't explosive. Sproles was a good niche player, but has never seen 100 carries in a season for a reason.

I suppose you think he's not as good? Based on what? He's been misused in Buffalo the last two years, yet he still averaged 4.6 ypc in 2013 with a high ankle sprain. The year before, in a system better suited for his talents, he averaged 6.0 ypc and 10.7 ypr. Payton is good at utilizing his players' talents. You think he's going to use Spiller more like Chan Gailey or like Doug Marrone?

Don't fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately" line of thinking. Take note when Sean Payton pays a speedy RB good money.

 

[cstu]

You could argue that Sproles was better than Spiller, but they're close:

Sproles: career 5.2 YPC, 76% catch rate, 9.0 YPR

Spiller: career 5.0 YPC, 77% catch rate, 7.6 YPR

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

You could argue that Sproles was better than Spiller, but they're close:

Sproles: career 5.2 YPC, 76% catch rate, 9.0 YPR

Spiller: career 5.0 YPC, 77% catch rate, 7.6 YPR

However One played with Rivers and Brees and a good portion on Turf, other played with a plethora of below average QB's in an outdoor setting. Not one team in the division was indoor.

Also History has shown a change of scenery for backs often times yield better results.

 

[FF Ninja]

You could argue that Sproles was better than Spiller, but they're close:

Sproles: career 5.2 YPC, 76% catch rate, 9.0 YPR

Spiller: career 5.0 YPC, 77% catch rate, 7.6 YPR

You could argue that... if you were going to totally ignore situation. Billy Ball already hit on part of it, but even on the better offenses and field conditions, Sproles was also put in a position to excel. He probably never saw an 8-man box once while he was in New Orleans. Not that Spiller was ever facing Frank Gore-esque stacked boxes, but he wasn't facing 6 DBs every time he ran like Sproles was.

 

[cstu]

You could argue that Sproles was better than Spiller, but they're close:

Sproles: career 5.2 YPC, 76% catch rate, 9.0 YPR

Spiller: career 5.0 YPC, 77% catch rate, 7.6 YPR

You could argue that... if you were going to totally ignore situation. Billy Ball already hit on part of it, but even on the better offenses and field conditions, Sproles was also put in a position to excel. He probably never saw an 8-man box once while he was in New Orleans. Not that Spiller was ever facing Frank Gore-esque stacked boxes, but he wasn't facing 6 DBs every time he ran like Sproles was.

Ok, let's control for the effect of the Saints offense, here are his numbers in SD:

Sproles: career 4.6 YPC, 80% catch rate, 9.6 YPR

So his YPC was lower but he had slightly higher catch rate and YPR in SD.

Now you still have the argument of SD vs. Buffalo...

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

It's a pretty good spot for him. Sproles finished top 10 in 0ppr in 2011. Had a similar season in 2012 but missed 3 games. Pierre Thomas squeezed into RB2 territory in 2013. Neither player is a slouch, but Spiller is better than both of them. He's a little sketchy in pass protection, but the Saints rarely use RBs to pass protect anyway. I think it is highly likely that Spiller ends up as a low-end RB1, high-end RB2 in 0ppr and a solid RB1 in ppr. Ingram hasn't exactly been durable, so CJ could see a fair amount of carries in addition to 70-80 receptions.

The funny thing about this old thread is that right after those posts comparing CJ to Reggie as being a gimmick player, Reggie actually put together back-to-back seasons of high workload on a slow surface and looked pretty good doing it.

Spiller is better than both Sproles and Thomas?? Based on what?

Ability/potential. He might not be as versatile as Thomas, but give him all those targets and he'll get you more yards. Hell, I was thinking Thomas was pretty good inside the 5, but he only converts 36% of his goal line carries. Seems pretty mediocre. Thomas was a good utility player, but wasn't explosive. Sproles was a good niche player, but has never seen 100 carries in a season for a reason.

I suppose you think he's not as good? Based on what? He's been misused in Buffalo the last two years, yet he still averaged 4.6 ypc in 2013 with a high ankle sprain. The year before, in a system better suited for his talents, he averaged 6.0 ypc and 10.7 ypr. Payton is good at utilizing his players' talents. You think he's going to use Spiller more like Chan Gailey or like Doug Marrone?

Don't fall victim to the "what have you done for me lately" line of thinking. Take note when Sean Payton pays a speedy RB good money.

Im taking note alright! I thought Sproles was grossly underutilized in SD. Part of that was LT and the other was Norv Turner. Payton utilized him masterfully. Jury still out on Spiller. Next two years will answer my question because it will be nearly apples to apples with Spiller being same age, similar past circumstances etc... I just don't know how one can make that claim with little to no evidence proving it. We'll know a little more this time next year

 

[FF Ninja]

Ok, let's control for the effect of the Saints offense, here are his numbers in SD:

Sproles: career 4.6 YPC, 80% catch rate, 9.6 YPR

So his YPC was lower but he had slightly higher catch rate and YPR in SD.

Now you still have the argument of SD vs. Buffalo...

Sproles has always played in a niche role so comparing stats won't ever quite be apples to apples. His receptions are designed plays. He's never in a situation where he's simply catching a dump off at or behind the line of scrimmage. The dude has had only seven games with double digit carries in nine years. His usage has simply been different than Spiller's, making Spiller's YPC even more impressive. Especially given the mediocre QB play he's been stuck with.

I can't claim to know exactly how Spiller will be used in New Orleans - at this point it would be silly to project 200 carries - but it is good to know he's handled 13 carries per game for back-to-back seasons. It seems very likely he'll be playing the receiving back role, at a minimum, which should net him plenty of receptions and will put him in a position to thrive. That alone should justify his ADP, but if he gets utilized as a runner, top 10 in all formats is easily achievable. The guy can run proper WR routes (he's roughly Reggie Bush/Percy Harvin sized) so his versatility could be exploited further than Sproles, who ran more limited routes than Reggie did.

 

[amicsta]

Ok, let's control for the effect of the Saints offense, here are his numbers in SD:

Sproles: career 4.6 YPC, 80% catch rate, 9.6 YPR

So his YPC was lower but he had slightly higher catch rate and YPR in SD.

Now you still have the argument of SD vs. Buffalo...

Sproles has always played in a niche role so comparing stats won't ever quite be apples to apples. His receptions are designed plays. He's never in a situation where he's simply catching a dump off at or behind the line of scrimmage. The dude has had only seven games with double digit carries in nine years. His usage has simply been different than Spiller's, making Spiller's YPC even more impressive. Especially given the mediocre QB play he's been stuck with.

I can't claim to know exactly how Spiller will be used in New Orleans - at this point it would be silly to project 200 carries - but it is good to know he's handled 13 carries per game for back-to-back seasons. It seems very likely he'll be playing the receiving back role, at a minimum, which should net him plenty of receptions and will put him in a position to thrive. That alone should justify his ADP, but if he gets utilized as a runner, top 10 in all formats is easily achievable. The guy can run proper WR routes (he's roughly Reggie Bush/Percy Harvin sized) so his versatility could be exploited further than Sproles, who ran more limited routes than Reggie did.

I agree. I think its pretty easy to argue that Spiller is the best pure rusher of the Spiller/Sproles/Bush group, and he is a very talented receiver as well. It's not like Ingram has been an Iron Man of productivity either. Spiller is going 6th round (RB27) in standard FFC mock drafts right now. That's without any rookie backs factored in. He's looking like a value at this rate.

 

[ol blues]

Ok, let's control for the effect of the Saints offense, here are his numbers in SD:

Sproles: career 4.6 YPC, 80% catch rate, 9.6 YPR

So his YPC was lower but he had slightly higher catch rate and YPR in SD.

Now you still have the argument of SD vs. Buffalo...

Sproles has always played in a niche role so comparing stats won't ever quite be apples to apples. His receptions are designed plays. He's never in a situation where he's simply catching a dump off at or behind the line of scrimmage. The dude has had only seven games with double digit carries in nine years. His usage has simply been different than Spiller's, making Spiller's YPC even more impressive. Especially given the mediocre QB play he's been stuck with.

I can't claim to know exactly how Spiller will be used in New Orleans - at this point it would be silly to project 200 carries - but it is good to know he's handled 13 carries per game for back-to-back seasons. It seems very likely he'll be playing the receiving back role, at a minimum, which should net him plenty of receptions and will put him in a position to thrive. That alone should justify his ADP, but if he gets utilized as a runner, top 10 in all formats is easily achievable. The guy can run proper WR routes (he's roughly Reggie Bush/Percy Harvin sized) so his versatility could be exploited further than Sproles, who ran more limited routes than Reggie did.

I agree. I think its pretty easy to argue that Spiller is the best pure rusher of the Spiller/Sproles/Bush group, and he is a very talented receiver as well. It's not like Ingram has been an Iron Man of productivity either. Spiller is going 6th round (RB27) in standard FFC mock drafts right now. That's without any rookie backs factored in. He's looking like a value at this rate.

Agreed. And there is sufficient hangover from his recent Bills usage and his injury history to keep the ADP depressed. Spiller likely makes a team or 3 of mine next year.

 

[LawFitz]

CJ will be the single most hyped player heading into 2015 drafts IMO. Recent history hasn't played out well for these types of guys, but I can feel myself getting sucked in already. Give him health and a couple big preseason runs and his ADP will go through the roof.

 

[ol blues]

CJ will be the single most hyped player heading into 2015 drafts IMO. Recent history hasn't played out well for these types of guys, but I can feel myself getting sucked in already. Give him health and a couple big preseason runs and his ADP will go through the roof.

Interesting take. I actually see the opposite. We will see.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

CJ will be the single most hyped player heading into 2015 drafts IMO. Recent history hasn't played out well for these types of guys, but I can feel myself getting sucked in already. Give him health and a couple big preseason runs and his ADP will go through the roof.

? He's not being hyped at all. Very few are high on him.