CJ Spiller (1 Viewer)

[HITMANMVP96]

Coming out of Clemson, the guy was very highly touted. Many said he was a special talent that we don't see too often. Watching tape on Spiller in Clemson, it is obvious that he is special, but few highlights come between the tackles. In Buffalo, he looked lost and timid. Guys like L. McCoy and D. McFadden needed a year or two to adjust to the speed of the NFL. Chan Gailey is planning to get CJ the ball more this year and create plays that utilize him in open space, but if you can't run between the tackles, you cannot become a productive starting back in the NFL i.e. Reggie Bush. So who is Spiller resemble more of the guys mentioned above. Anyone or Buffalo homers get a good look at his NFL game enough to provide some insight as to his ability to translate to a stud (or dud) and become the feature back that he was drafted to be??

 

[sihaokills]

I think you just need to wait for Spiller... Always give rookies two to three years to develop and be a stud

 

[GroveDiesel]

Well, he needs to learn to pass protect.

 

[Obie Wan]

Well, he needs to learn to pass protect.

what for?he's really, really fast

 

[massraider]

Litte bit worried if I was an owner, which I am not.

20 yards was longest rush? That YPC? Why wouldn't you be nervous?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Litte bit worried if I was an owner, which I am not.

20 yards was longest rush? That YPC? Why wouldn't you be nervous?

Because plenty of highly-touted RBs struggle as rookies?

 

[massraider]

Litte bit worried if I was an owner, which I am not.

20 yards was longest rush? That YPC? Why wouldn't you be nervous?

Because plenty of highly-touted RBs struggle as rookies?

I assume you are referring to highly-touted backs that struggle as rookies, then turn out to be very good. Define plenty. Because plenty MORE are good right off the bat. And by "plenty more" I mean 'MOST' backs that turn out good, are good right off the bat.

And the ones that struggle, usually show some flash right away. McFadden was the example the OP used. Well, he broke off a 50 yarder his rookie year, and averaged 4.4 YPC.

"Other backs have struggled as rookies" is also a pretty bad argument, if it's the only one. That's not a reason to be optimistic, that's a reason to not throw him on the trash heap right away. 'Well, not EVERY back who struggled as a rookie completely sucked for their entire career.'

Well, hooray. That's a reason to keep him (plus his initial cost to the dynasty owner). Now what's the reason for optimism? There is a debate going on about Jahvid Best right now, and he showed more in one half of football than Spiller did all year.

Spiller averaged half a yard less per carry than the immortal Fred Jackson and the castoff Lynch. He did however, manage to have the same number of fumbles as Jackson, in a third of the carries.

I only watched a few Bills games, so I don't pretend to know. What I do know is that looking from the outside, there is a lot of cause for nervousness.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Litte bit worried if I was an owner, which I am not.

20 yards was longest rush? That YPC? Why wouldn't you be nervous?

Because plenty of highly-touted RBs struggle as rookies?

I assume you are referring to highly-touted backs that struggle as rookies, then turn out to be very good. Define plenty. Because plenty MORE are good right off the bat. And by "plenty more" I mean 'MOST' backs that turn out good, are good right off the bat.

And the ones that struggle, usually show some flash right away. McFadden was the example the OP used. Well, he broke off a 50 yarder his rookie year, and averaged 4.4 YPC.

"Other backs have struggled as rookies" is also a pretty bad argument, if it's the only one. That's not a reason to be optimistic, that's a reason to not throw him on the trash heap right away. 'Well, not EVERY back who struggled as a rookie completely sucked for their entire career.'

Well, hooray. That's a reason to keep him (plus his initial cost to the dynasty owner). Now what's the reason for optimism? There is a debate going on about Jahvid Best right now, and he showed more in one half of football than Spiller did all year.

Spiller averaged half a yard less per carry than the immortal Fred Jackson and the castoff Lynch. He did however, manage to have the same number of fumbles as Jackson, in a third of the carries.

I only watched a few Bills games, so I don't pretend to know. What I do know is that looking from the outside, there is a lot of cause for nervousness.

I don't necessarily disagree with what you wrote....but you've also jumped to some major conclusions above. Or at least falsely attributed a lot more to my statement than was implied.You asked a simple question: "why wouldn't you be nervous?"

I gave a simple answer: "Because plenty of highly-touted RBs struggle as rookies."

A better answer would have been: "Because plenty of highly-touted RBs fail to be productive as rookies".....given that was more specifically want I meant to write. Spiller didn't "struggle" exactly...he just wasn't very productive, for a variety of reasons.

Notice that nowhere did I write that: a) his struggles were a reason to be optimistic, b) or that BECAUSE he struggled as a rookie he would suddenly be good in the future.

Examples of 1st round RBs who failed to be productive as rookies:

- Thomas Jones

- Shaun Alexander

- Trung Canidate

- Deuce McAllister

- Larry Johnson

- Chris Perry

- Ced Benson

- Rashard Mendenhall

- Donald Brown

Caveat: a number of the above players either had injury problems or sat behind good veterans (e.g., Alexander was behind R Watters, LJ behind P Holmes, etc).

Results were also mixed for the above gropu. Failure as a rookie - of course - isn't a predictor of future success. That said (and I'm too lazy to pull this together, but it's intuitively obvious), SUCCESS as a rookie RB ALSO isn't a predictor of future success. I went through drafts going back to 2000, and it was interesting how many 1st rd RBs were productive as rookies but then failed to continue their production. (anecdotal evidence: William Green....there are others though)

Anyway, I think we're largely on the same page massraider. Except that you look at Spiller's rookie year and see glass half-empty, I look at it and say "huh, too early to tell."

 

[CompetitiveEdgeFootball]

Not only could he not pass protect, he was fighting for carries with 2 other RBs for a large part of last season. This is a guy that is totally worth a home run swing if you can get him late in redrafts or from a disgruntled dynasty owner. Classic case of first round talent, having a tough first year and everyone dismisses him as a bust. We could be talking about McFadden all over again here, and chances are you can get this guy fairly cheap. I'm trying to get him cheap on as many teams as possible. He could be your RB5 that turns into your RB2, or you could drop him 1/2 way through the season. Either way, taking shots on guys like this could win you a league, at very low cost.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Litte bit worried if I was an owner, which I am not.

20 yards was longest rush? That YPC? Why wouldn't you be nervous?

Because plenty of highly-touted RBs struggle as rookies?

I assume you are referring to highly-touted backs that struggle as rookies, then turn out to be very good. Define plenty. Because plenty MORE are good right off the bat. And by "plenty more" I mean 'MOST' backs that turn out good, are good right off the bat.

And the ones that struggle, usually show some flash right away. McFadden was the example the OP used. Well, he broke off a 50 yarder his rookie year, and averaged 4.4 YPC.

"Other backs have struggled as rookies" is also a pretty bad argument, if it's the only one. That's not a reason to be optimistic, that's a reason to not throw him on the trash heap right away. 'Well, not EVERY back who struggled as a rookie completely sucked for their entire career.'

Well, hooray. That's a reason to keep him (plus his initial cost to the dynasty owner). Now what's the reason for optimism? There is a debate going on about Jahvid Best right now, and he showed more in one half of football than Spiller did all year.

Spiller averaged half a yard less per carry than the immortal Fred Jackson and the castoff Lynch. He did however, manage to have the same number of fumbles as Jackson, in a third of the carries.

I only watched a few Bills games, so I don't pretend to know. What I do know is that looking from the outside, there is a lot of cause for nervousness.

I don't necessarily disagree with what you wrote....but you've also jumped to some major conclusions above. Or at least falsely attributed a lot more to my statement than was implied.You asked a simple question: "why wouldn't you be nervous?"

I gave a simple answer: "Because plenty of highly-touted RBs struggle as rookies."

A better answer would have been: "Because plenty of highly-touted RBs fail to be productive as rookies".....given that was more specifically want I meant to write. Spiller didn't "struggle" exactly...he just wasn't very productive, for a variety of reasons.

Notice that nowhere did I write that: a) his struggles were a reason to be optimistic, b) or that BECAUSE he struggled as a rookie he would suddenly be good in the future.

Examples of 1st round RBs who failed to be productive as rookies:

- Thomas Jones

- Shaun Alexander

- Trung Canidate

- Deuce McAllister

- Larry Johnson

- Chris Perry

- Ced Benson

- Rashard Mendenhall

- Donald Brown

Caveat: a number of the above players either had injury problems or sat behind good veterans (e.g., Alexander was behind R Watters, LJ behind P Holmes, etc).

Results were also mixed for the above gropu. Failure as a rookie - of course - isn't a predictor of future success. That said (and I'm too lazy to pull this together, but it's intuitively obvious), SUCCESS as a rookie RB ALSO isn't a predictor of future success. I went through drafts going back to 2000, and it was interesting how many 1st rd RBs were productive as rookies but then failed to continue their production. (anecdotal evidence: William Green....there are others though)

Anyway, I think we're largely on the same page massraider. Except that you look at Spiller's rookie year and see glass half-empty, I look at it and say "huh, too early to tell."

I think it is just to early to tell right now...To say a guy of spillers talent is a straight up bust after one season is insane IMO. Sure, he may not fulfill his potential but the reason that would happen is because of situation or work ethic, not talent...Which is just about impossible to tell after one season.

 

[massraider]

Not only could he not pass protect, he was fighting for carries with 2 other RBs for a large part of last season. This is a guy that is totally worth a home run swing if you can get him late in redrafts or from a disgruntled dynasty owner. Classic case of first round talent, having a tough first year and everyone dismisses him as a bust. We could be talking about McFadden all over again here, and chances are you can get this guy fairly cheap. I'm trying to get him cheap on as many teams as possible. He could be your RB5 that turns into your RB2, or you could drop him 1/2 way through the season. Either way, taking shots on guys like this could win you a league, at very low cost.

I don't think everyone is regarding him as a bust. Not even close. And I am sure that there are a lot of Spiller owners that are looking for big things. I am wondering why people are so quick to dismiss last year.

 

[HITMANMVP96]

I did not watch Clemson football, but have watched quite a bit of tape on Spiller. Not a whole lot of highlights on runs up the middle. He seems to bounce runs to the outside or if he does have a big play up the middle, it is a cutback with a single arm tackle. He is a dazzling runner (much of it on kick returns), but he doesn't seek contact, runs out of bounds frequently, and has few highlights between tackles. Anyone watch him with a keen eye at Clemson care to comment on his skillsets translating to the NFL?? I see a productive career, not a bust... too talented, but productive ala Reggie Bush is much different than a bellcow lead back.

 

[FUBAR]

Litte bit worried if I was an owner, which I am not. 20 yards was longest rush? That YPC? Why wouldn't you be nervous?

I expected to see longer runs, but he did have a 41 yard reception and was fairly involved as a receiver. I picked him up this year, but I only expect RBBC with him getting a slew of receptions.Reggie Bush is a fair comparison.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Litte bit worried if I was an owner, which I am not. 20 yards was longest rush? That YPC? Why wouldn't you be nervous?

I expected to see longer runs, but he did have a 41 yard reception and was fairly involved as a receiver. I picked him up this year, but I only expect RBBC with him getting a slew of receptions.Reggie Bush is a fair comparison.

I like Marshall Faulk light as better comparison.

 

[MU Seminole]

Litte bit worried if I was an owner, which I am not. 20 yards was longest rush? That YPC? Why wouldn't you be nervous?

I expected to see longer runs, but he did have a 41 yard reception and was fairly involved as a receiver. I picked him up this year, but I only expect RBBC with him getting a slew of receptions.Reggie Bush is a fair comparison.

I like Marshall Faulk light as better comparison.

This

 

[Shutout]

Bad team, bad situation, bad timing. Weather factors, a capable hard-nosed runner that does what the team NEEDs.

I watch CJ Spiller and compare him to other backs that looked good on his team (James Davis).

The more I look at it, the more i get the feeling that this is a J.J. Arrington situaiton. Nothing against Spiller, but I think by the time the BIlls get their team in position to have in place the things they need for a guy like Spiller to shine ON THAT TEAM, its over.

You would have to really give Spiller to me to get me to buy low on him relative to what most people that drafted him with a 1.01-1.04 rookie pick last year would expect in order to salvage the pick in their mind. I would much rather go hunting the Beanie Wells, Jahvid Best, Knowshonn Moreno, and Ryan Matthews owners.

 

[FTRWRTR]

Well, he needs to learn to pass protect.

what for?he's really, really fast

Because coaches don't play rbs who can't pick up the blitz and protect the qb.

I think it is just to early to tell right now...To say a guy of spillers talent is a straight up bust after one season is insane IMO. Sure, he may not fulfill his potential but the reason that would happen is because of situation or work ethic, not talent...Which is just about impossible to tell after one season

However massraiderdid not call spiller a bust. He said if he owned spiller he'd be worried. And who wouldn't be? Bottom line is he was a first round pick for ff owners and didn't produce.

 

[barker132000]

If you want hope...look to deangello williams...he was TERRIBLE for a few years. As soon as he was touched he would fall down....so....theres a chance spiller could be a deangello....but i see reggie bush upside. Id sell now personally.

 

[Aabye]

I don't necessarily disagree with what you wrote....but you've also jumped to some major conclusions above. Or at least falsely attributed a lot more to my statement than was implied.You asked a simple question: "why wouldn't you be nervous?"I gave a simple answer: "Because plenty of highly-touted RBs struggle as rookies." A better answer would have been: "Because plenty of highly-touted RBs fail to be productive as rookies".....given that was more specifically want I meant to write. Spiller didn't "struggle" exactly...he just wasn't very productive, for a variety of reasons.Notice that nowhere did I write that: a) his struggles were a reason to be optimistic, b) or that BECAUSE he struggled as a rookie he would suddenly be good in the future. Examples of 1st round RBs who failed to be productive as rookies:- Thomas Jones- Shaun Alexander- Trung Canidate- Deuce McAllister- Larry Johnson- Chris Perry - Ced Benson- Rashard Mendenhall- Donald BrownCaveat: a number of the above players either had injury problems or sat behind good veterans (e.g., Alexander was behind R Watters, LJ behind P Holmes, etc). Results were also mixed for the above gropu. Failure as a rookie - of course - isn't a predictor of future success. That said (and I'm too lazy to pull this together, but it's intuitively obvious), SUCCESS as a rookie RB ALSO isn't a predictor of future success. I went through drafts going back to 2000, and it was interesting how many 1st rd RBs were productive as rookies but then failed to continue their production. (anecdotal evidence: William Green....there are others though)Anyway, I think we're largely on the same page massraider. Except that you look at Spiller's rookie year and see glass half-empty, I look at it and say "huh, too early to tell."

1st year RB production is one of the best indicators of fantasy success that I've found.Between 1985 and 2000, here are all of the 1st round RBs who scored 1 or more VBD points during their rookie year: Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis, Emmitt Smith, Eddie George, Warrick Dunn, Eric Metcalf, Antowain Smith, Bobby Humphrey, Robert Edwards, Leonard Russell, John Stephens, Rashaan Salaam.And here are all of the 1st round RBs who didn't score any VBD points during their rookie year: Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, Garrison Hearst, Keith Byars, Curtis Enis, Sammie Smith, Brent Fullwood, Bo Jackson, Alonzo Highsmith, Ki-Jana Carter, Lawrence Phillips, Tim Biakabutuka, Tim Worley, Tommy Vardell, Shaun Alexander, Neal Anderson, Rodney Hampton, Robert Smith, Lorenzo White, James Stewart, Cleveland Gary, Harvey Williams, Craig Heyward, Napoleon Kaufman, Tyrone Wheatley, Lorenzo Hampton, Rod Bernstine, Ronnie Harmon, Brad Muster, Gaston Green, Paul Palmer, D.J. Dozier, Darrell Thompson, Dexter Carter, George Adams, Greg Hill, John Avery, Reggie Dupard, Roger Vick, Ron Dayne, Steve Broussard, Steve Sewell, Terrence Flagler, Tony Smith, Trung Canidate, Vaughn Dunbar.Average remaining career VBD value (this does NOT include production during a player's rookie year):1+ VBD points - 3300 VBD points - 85That's a gigantic difference.Examples of RBs who scored around 330 career VBD points after their rookie year: Fred Taylor, Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis, Chris Warren, Jamal Anderson, Stephen DavisExamples of RBs who scored around 85 career VBD points after their rookie year: Keith Byars, Eric Metcalf, Craig Heyward, Napoleon Kaufman, Leonard Russell, Tyrone Wheatley, Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Merril HogeThere are exceptions (as always) but it's certainly bad sign, especially considering that the best RBs who didn't produce during their rookie season were almost all sitting behind another RB, rather than playing but not producing.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I don't necessarily disagree with what you wrote....but you've also jumped to some major conclusions above. Or at least falsely attributed a lot more to my statement than was implied.You asked a simple question: "why wouldn't you be nervous?"I gave a simple answer: "Because plenty of highly-touted RBs struggle as rookies." A better answer would have been: "Because plenty of highly-touted RBs fail to be productive as rookies".....given that was more specifically want I meant to write. Spiller didn't "struggle" exactly...he just wasn't very productive, for a variety of reasons.Notice that nowhere did I write that: a) his struggles were a reason to be optimistic, b) or that BECAUSE he struggled as a rookie he would suddenly be good in the future. Examples of 1st round RBs who failed to be productive as rookies:- Thomas Jones- Shaun Alexander- Trung Canidate- Deuce McAllister- Larry Johnson- Chris Perry - Ced Benson- Rashard Mendenhall- Donald BrownCaveat: a number of the above players either had injury problems or sat behind good veterans (e.g., Alexander was behind R Watters, LJ behind P Holmes, etc). Results were also mixed for the above gropu. Failure as a rookie - of course - isn't a predictor of future success. That said (and I'm too lazy to pull this together, but it's intuitively obvious), SUCCESS as a rookie RB ALSO isn't a predictor of future success. I went through drafts going back to 2000, and it was interesting how many 1st rd RBs were productive as rookies but then failed to continue their production. (anecdotal evidence: William Green....there are others though)Anyway, I think we're largely on the same page massraider. Except that you look at Spiller's rookie year and see glass half-empty, I look at it and say "huh, too early to tell."

1st year RB production is one of the best indicators of fantasy success that I've found.Between 1985 and 2000, here are all of the 1st round RBs who scored 1 or more VBD points during their rookie year: Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis, Emmitt Smith, Eddie George, Warrick Dunn, Eric Metcalf, Antowain Smith, Bobby Humphrey, Robert Edwards, Leonard Russell, John Stephens, Rashaan Salaam.And here are all of the 1st round RBs who didn't score any VBD points during their rookie year: Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, Garrison Hearst, Keith Byars, Curtis Enis, Sammie Smith, Brent Fullwood, Bo Jackson, Alonzo Highsmith, Ki-Jana Carter, Lawrence Phillips, Tim Biakabutuka, Tim Worley, Tommy Vardell, Shaun Alexander, Neal Anderson, Rodney Hampton, Robert Smith, Lorenzo White, James Stewart, Cleveland Gary, Harvey Williams, Craig Heyward, Napoleon Kaufman, Tyrone Wheatley, Lorenzo Hampton, Rod Bernstine, Ronnie Harmon, Brad Muster, Gaston Green, Paul Palmer, D.J. Dozier, Darrell Thompson, Dexter Carter, George Adams, Greg Hill, John Avery, Reggie Dupard, Roger Vick, Ron Dayne, Steve Broussard, Steve Sewell, Terrence Flagler, Tony Smith, Trung Canidate, Vaughn Dunbar.Average remaining career VBD value (this does NOT include production during a player's rookie year):1+ VBD points - 3300 VBD points - 85That's a gigantic difference.Examples of RBs who scored around 330 career VBD points after their rookie year: Fred Taylor, Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis, Chris Warren, Jamal Anderson, Stephen DavisExamples of RBs who scored around 85 career VBD points after their rookie year: Keith Byars, Eric Metcalf, Craig Heyward, Napoleon Kaufman, Leonard Russell, Tyrone Wheatley, Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Merril HogeThere are exceptions (as always) but it's certainly bad sign, especially considering that the best RBs who didn't produce during their rookie season were almost all sitting behind another RB, rather than playing but not producing.

Great post Aabye. Now that someone has given me statistical reasons to worry about Spiller.....I'm actually worried. Seriously - great post.

 

[Aabye]

Great post Aabye. Now that someone has given me statistical reasons to worry about Spiller.....I'm actually worried. Seriously - great post.

Thank you sir. I've had to temper expectations for Spiller somewhat. I really like him, so I am looking hard for reasons to be optimistic, but so far I haven't found very much.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I don't necessarily disagree with what you wrote....but you've also jumped to some major conclusions above. Or at least falsely attributed a lot more to my statement than was implied.You asked a simple question: "why wouldn't you be nervous?"I gave a simple answer: "Because plenty of highly-touted RBs struggle as rookies." A better answer would have been: "Because plenty of highly-touted RBs fail to be productive as rookies".....given that was more specifically want I meant to write. Spiller didn't "struggle" exactly...he just wasn't very productive, for a variety of reasons.Notice that nowhere did I write that: a) his struggles were a reason to be optimistic, b) or that BECAUSE he struggled as a rookie he would suddenly be good in the future. Examples of 1st round RBs who failed to be productive as rookies:- Thomas Jones- Shaun Alexander- Trung Canidate- Deuce McAllister- Larry Johnson- Chris Perry - Ced Benson- Rashard Mendenhall- Donald BrownCaveat: a number of the above players either had injury problems or sat behind good veterans (e.g., Alexander was behind R Watters, LJ behind P Holmes, etc). Results were also mixed for the above gropu. Failure as a rookie - of course - isn't a predictor of future success. That said (and I'm too lazy to pull this together, but it's intuitively obvious), SUCCESS as a rookie RB ALSO isn't a predictor of future success. I went through drafts going back to 2000, and it was interesting how many 1st rd RBs were productive as rookies but then failed to continue their production. (anecdotal evidence: William Green....there are others though)Anyway, I think we're largely on the same page massraider. Except that you look at Spiller's rookie year and see glass half-empty, I look at it and say "huh, too early to tell."

1st year RB production is one of the best indicators of fantasy success that I've found.Between 1985 and 2000, here are all of the 1st round RBs who scored 1 or more VBD points during their rookie year: Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Fred Taylor, Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis, Emmitt Smith, Eddie George, Warrick Dunn, Eric Metcalf, Antowain Smith, Bobby Humphrey, Robert Edwards, Leonard Russell, John Stephens, Rashaan Salaam.And here are all of the 1st round RBs who didn't score any VBD points during their rookie year: Ricky Williams, Thomas Jones, Garrison Hearst, Keith Byars, Curtis Enis, Sammie Smith, Brent Fullwood, Bo Jackson, Alonzo Highsmith, Ki-Jana Carter, Lawrence Phillips, Tim Biakabutuka, Tim Worley, Tommy Vardell, Shaun Alexander, Neal Anderson, Rodney Hampton, Robert Smith, Lorenzo White, James Stewart, Cleveland Gary, Harvey Williams, Craig Heyward, Napoleon Kaufman, Tyrone Wheatley, Lorenzo Hampton, Rod Bernstine, Ronnie Harmon, Brad Muster, Gaston Green, Paul Palmer, D.J. Dozier, Darrell Thompson, Dexter Carter, George Adams, Greg Hill, John Avery, Reggie Dupard, Roger Vick, Ron Dayne, Steve Broussard, Steve Sewell, Terrence Flagler, Tony Smith, Trung Canidate, Vaughn Dunbar.Average remaining career VBD value (this does NOT include production during a player's rookie year):1+ VBD points - 3300 VBD points - 85That's a gigantic difference.Examples of RBs who scored around 330 career VBD points after their rookie year: Fred Taylor, Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis, Chris Warren, Jamal Anderson, Stephen DavisExamples of RBs who scored around 85 career VBD points after their rookie year: Keith Byars, Eric Metcalf, Craig Heyward, Napoleon Kaufman, Leonard Russell, Tyrone Wheatley, Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Merril HogeThere are exceptions (as always) but it's certainly bad sign, especially considering that the best RBs who didn't produce during their rookie season were almost all sitting behind another RB, rather than playing but not producing.

I would argue that looking at RB numbers from 1985-2000 is extremely irrelevant to Spillers situation.I think the only stats that can be used to prove or disprove spiller has to be 2000 or later. We are in a RBBC era and those stats speak of the workhorse era.

 

[Aabye]

I would argue that looking at RB numbers from 1985-2000 is extremely irrelevant to Spillers situation.I think the only stats that can be used to prove or disprove spiller has to be 2000 or later. We are in a RBBC era and those stats speak of the workhorse era.

I quickly pulled data from 1993, 1994, 1995, 2003, 2004, 2005. Here are the top 10 in rushing attempts in each of those years:19931. Thurman Thomas* · BUF 3552. Leonard Russell · NWE 3003. Jerome Bettis*+ · RAM 2944. Rodney Hampton* · NYG 292 Erric Pegram · ATL 2926. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 2837. Chris Warren* · SEA 2738. Ronald Moore · PHO 2639. Barry Sanders* · DET 24310. Rod Bernstine · DEN 223 Reggie Brooks · WAS 22319941. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 3682. Natrone Means* · SDG 3433. Chris Warren* · SEA 3334. Barry Sanders*+ · DET 3315. Rodney Hampton · NYG 3276. Jerome Bettis* · RAM 3197. Marshall Faulk* · IND 3148. Thurman Thomas · BUF 2879. Errict Rhett · TAM 28410. Harvey Williams · RAI 28219951. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 3772. Curtis Martin* · NWE 3683. Terry Allen · WAS 3384. Ricky Watters* · PHI 3375. Errict Rhett · TAM 3326. Edgar Bennett · GNB 3167. Barry Sanders*+ · DET 3148. Chris Warren* · SEA 3109. Rodney Hampton · NYG 30610. Rashaan Salaam · CHI 29620031. Ricky Williams · MIA 3922. Jamal Lewis*+ · BAL 3873. Ahman Green* · GNB 3554. Deuce McAllister* · NOR 3515. Fred Taylor · JAX 3456. Travis Henry · BUF 3317. Shaun Alexander* · SEA 3268. Curtis Martin · NYJ 3239. Priest Holmes*+ · KAN 32010. Stephen Davis* · CAR 31820041. Curtis Martin*+ · NYJ 3712. Rudi Johnson* · CIN 3613. Shaun Alexander* · SEA 3534. Corey Dillon* · NWE 3455. Clinton Portis · WAS 3436. L. Tomlinson*+ · SDG 3397. Edgerrin James* · IND 3348. Tiki Barber* · NYG 3229. Domanick Williams · HOU 30210. Willis McGahee · BUF 28420051. Shaun Alexander*+ · SEA 3702. Edgerrin James* · IND 3603. Tiki Barber*+ · NYG 3574. Clinton Portis · WAS 3525. L. Tomlinson* · SDG 3396. Rudi Johnson · CIN 3377. Larry Johnson* · KAN 3368. Willis McGahee · BUF 3259. Thomas Jones · CHI 31410. Reuben Droughns · CLE 309I'm not seeing it.

 

[menobrown]

If you want hope...look to deangello williams...he was TERRIBLE for a few years. As soon as he was touched he would fall down....so....theres a chance spiller could be a deangello....but i see reggie bush upside. Id sell now personally.

Good thing early in his career he was hardly ever touched until he was 12 to 16 feet from the line of scrimmage.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I would argue that looking at RB numbers from 1985-2000 is extremely irrelevant to Spillers situation.I think the only stats that can be used to prove or disprove spiller has to be 2000 or later. We are in a RBBC era and those stats speak of the workhorse era.

I quickly pulled data from 1993, 1994, 1995, 2003, 2004, 2005. Here are the top 10 in rushing attempts in each of those years:19931. Thurman Thomas* · BUF 3552. Leonard Russell · NWE 3003. Jerome Bettis*+ · RAM 2944. Rodney Hampton* · NYG 292 Erric Pegram · ATL 2926. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 2837. Chris Warren* · SEA 2738. Ronald Moore · PHO 2639. Barry Sanders* · DET 24310. Rod Bernstine · DEN 223 Reggie Brooks · WAS 22319941. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 3682. Natrone Means* · SDG 3433. Chris Warren* · SEA 3334. Barry Sanders*+ · DET 3315. Rodney Hampton · NYG 3276. Jerome Bettis* · RAM 3197. Marshall Faulk* · IND 3148. Thurman Thomas · BUF 2879. Errict Rhett · TAM 28410. Harvey Williams · RAI 28219951. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 3772. Curtis Martin* · NWE 3683. Terry Allen · WAS 3384. Ricky Watters* · PHI 3375. Errict Rhett · TAM 3326. Edgar Bennett · GNB 3167. Barry Sanders*+ · DET 3148. Chris Warren* · SEA 3109. Rodney Hampton · NYG 30610. Rashaan Salaam · CHI 29620031. Ricky Williams · MIA 3922. Jamal Lewis*+ · BAL 3873. Ahman Green* · GNB 3554. Deuce McAllister* · NOR 3515. Fred Taylor · JAX 3456. Travis Henry · BUF 3317. Shaun Alexander* · SEA 3268. Curtis Martin · NYJ 3239. Priest Holmes*+ · KAN 32010. Stephen Davis* · CAR 31820041. Curtis Martin*+ · NYJ 3712. Rudi Johnson* · CIN 3613. Shaun Alexander* · SEA 3534. Corey Dillon* · NWE 3455. Clinton Portis · WAS 3436. L. Tomlinson*+ · SDG 3397. Edgerrin James* · IND 3348. Tiki Barber* · NYG 3229. Domanick Williams · HOU 30210. Willis McGahee · BUF 28420051. Shaun Alexander*+ · SEA 3702. Edgerrin James* · IND 3603. Tiki Barber*+ · NYG 3574. Clinton Portis · WAS 3525. L. Tomlinson* · SDG 3396. Rudi Johnson · CIN 3377. Larry Johnson* · KAN 3368. Willis McGahee · BUF 3259. Thomas Jones · CHI 31410. Reuben Droughns · CLE 309I'm not seeing it.

I dont know, maybe im wrong. I just feel like since 2008 the fantasy game has changed substantially

 

[Go deep]

I would argue that looking at RB numbers from 1985-2000 is extremely irrelevant to Spillers situation.I think the only stats that can be used to prove or disprove spiller has to be 2000 or later. We are in a RBBC era and those stats speak of the workhorse era.

I quickly pulled data from 1993, 1994, 1995, 2003, 2004, 2005. Here are the top 10 in rushing attempts in each of those years:19931. Thurman Thomas* · BUF 3552. Leonard Russell · NWE 3003. Jerome Bettis*+ · RAM 2944. Rodney Hampton* · NYG 292 Erric Pegram · ATL 2926. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 2837. Chris Warren* · SEA 2738. Ronald Moore · PHO 2639. Barry Sanders* · DET 24310. Rod Bernstine · DEN 223 Reggie Brooks · WAS 22319941. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 3682. Natrone Means* · SDG 3433. Chris Warren* · SEA 3334. Barry Sanders*+ · DET 3315. Rodney Hampton · NYG 3276. Jerome Bettis* · RAM 3197. Marshall Faulk* · IND 3148. Thurman Thomas · BUF 2879. Errict Rhett · TAM 28410. Harvey Williams · RAI 28219951. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 3772. Curtis Martin* · NWE 3683. Terry Allen · WAS 3384. Ricky Watters* · PHI 3375. Errict Rhett · TAM 3326. Edgar Bennett · GNB 3167. Barry Sanders*+ · DET 3148. Chris Warren* · SEA 3109. Rodney Hampton · NYG 30610. Rashaan Salaam · CHI 29620031. Ricky Williams · MIA 3922. Jamal Lewis*+ · BAL 3873. Ahman Green* · GNB 3554. Deuce McAllister* · NOR 3515. Fred Taylor · JAX 3456. Travis Henry · BUF 3317. Shaun Alexander* · SEA 3268. Curtis Martin · NYJ 3239. Priest Holmes*+ · KAN 32010. Stephen Davis* · CAR 31820041. Curtis Martin*+ · NYJ 3712. Rudi Johnson* · CIN 3613. Shaun Alexander* · SEA 3534. Corey Dillon* · NWE 3455. Clinton Portis · WAS 3436. L. Tomlinson*+ · SDG 3397. Edgerrin James* · IND 3348. Tiki Barber* · NYG 3229. Domanick Williams · HOU 30210. Willis McGahee · BUF 28420051. Shaun Alexander*+ · SEA 3702. Edgerrin James* · IND 3603. Tiki Barber*+ · NYG 3574. Clinton Portis · WAS 3525. L. Tomlinson* · SDG 3396. Rudi Johnson · CIN 3377. Larry Johnson* · KAN 3368. Willis McGahee · BUF 3259. Thomas Jones · CHI 31410. Reuben Droughns · CLE 309I'm not seeing it.

I dont know, maybe im wrong. I just feel like since 2008 the fantasy game has changed substantially

I tend to agree with you, over the last few years the league has moved more towards RBBC. Like i argued with Best, I would argue that Spillers bad rookie year isnt a bad sign based on how many rookie RB's drafted in the first two rounds over the past few years went on to have top 10 seasons after a bad rookie year. DWilliams, Mcfadden, Mendenhall, Rice, Charles, Mccoy. That doesnt mean that Spiller(Best or Mathews) will go on to have success, but its proof that a bad rookie season doesnt eliminate you from being a top 10 RB in the near future.

 

[LHUCKS]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

 

[silentmark]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

Based on ?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

And suddenly, I feel good about Spiller again....

 

[HellToupee]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

Based on ?

1 season

 

[golfguy]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

And suddenly, I feel good about Spiller again....

 

[Sweet Love]

I would argue that looking at RB numbers from 1985-2000 is extremely irrelevant to Spillers situation.I think the only stats that can be used to prove or disprove spiller has to be 2000 or later. We are in a RBBC era and those stats speak of the workhorse era.

I quickly pulled data from 1993, 1994, 1995, 2003, 2004, 2005. Here are the top 10 in rushing attempts in each of those years:19931. Thurman Thomas* · BUF 3552. Leonard Russell · NWE 3003. Jerome Bettis*+ · RAM 2944. Rodney Hampton* · NYG 292 Erric Pegram · ATL 2926. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 2837. Chris Warren* · SEA 2738. Ronald Moore · PHO 2639. Barry Sanders* · DET 24310. Rod Bernstine · DEN 223 Reggie Brooks · WAS 22319941. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 3682. Natrone Means* · SDG 3433. Chris Warren* · SEA 3334. Barry Sanders*+ · DET 3315. Rodney Hampton · NYG 3276. Jerome Bettis* · RAM 3197. Marshall Faulk* · IND 3148. Thurman Thomas · BUF 2879. Errict Rhett · TAM 28410. Harvey Williams · RAI 28219951. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 3772. Curtis Martin* · NWE 3683. Terry Allen · WAS 3384. Ricky Watters* · PHI 3375. Errict Rhett · TAM 3326. Edgar Bennett · GNB 3167. Barry Sanders*+ · DET 3148. Chris Warren* · SEA 3109. Rodney Hampton · NYG 30610. Rashaan Salaam · CHI 29620031. Ricky Williams · MIA 3922. Jamal Lewis*+ · BAL 3873. Ahman Green* · GNB 3554. Deuce McAllister* · NOR 3515. Fred Taylor · JAX 3456. Travis Henry · BUF 3317. Shaun Alexander* · SEA 3268. Curtis Martin · NYJ 3239. Priest Holmes*+ · KAN 32010. Stephen Davis* · CAR 31820041. Curtis Martin*+ · NYJ 3712. Rudi Johnson* · CIN 3613. Shaun Alexander* · SEA 3534. Corey Dillon* · NWE 3455. Clinton Portis · WAS 3436. L. Tomlinson*+ · SDG 3397. Edgerrin James* · IND 3348. Tiki Barber* · NYG 3229. Domanick Williams · HOU 30210. Willis McGahee · BUF 28420051. Shaun Alexander*+ · SEA 3702. Edgerrin James* · IND 3603. Tiki Barber*+ · NYG 3574. Clinton Portis · WAS 3525. L. Tomlinson* · SDG 3396. Rudi Johnson · CIN 3377. Larry Johnson* · KAN 3368. Willis McGahee · BUF 3259. Thomas Jones · CHI 31410. Reuben Droughns · CLE 309I'm not seeing it.

I dont know, maybe im wrong. I just feel like since 2008 the fantasy game has changed substantially

I tend to agree with you, over the last few years the league has moved more towards RBBC. Like i argued with Best, I would argue that Spillers bad rookie year isnt a bad sign based on how many rookie RB's drafted in the first two rounds over the past few years went on to have top 10 seasons after a bad rookie year. DWilliams, Mcfadden, Mendenhall, Rice, Charles, Mccoy. That doesnt mean that Spiller(Best or Mathews) will go on to have success, but its proof that a bad rookie season doesnt eliminate you from being a top 10 RB in the near future.

I think you also need to pay attention to who was in front of said rookie in the determination. For example, LJ had Priest in front of him, and from your list, McFadden was injured some, Mendenhall had Parker, Rice had McGahee, Charles had LJ, and McCoy had Westbrook. Sure, many of these vets were fading at this point, but they also warranted extra chances based on previous output and comfortability within the offense. Williams just had Foster, so he would be in the camp favoring a rebound from Spiller, but Spiller himself, just had to get through Fred Jackson! He can certainly turn it around, but comparing to those other guys is misleading IMO.

 

[silentmark]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

Based on ?

1 season

 

[Stealthycat]

did you rate McFadden on year 1 performance? Hillis? Priest Holmes? Mendenhall? any number of RB's that had poor year 1's to go on to be studly?

sweet method you got there slick

 

[LHUCKS]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

Based on ?

watching him play.He'll likely never be an effective between the tackles runner.believe it

 

[CalBear]

I would argue that looking at RB numbers from 1985-2000 is extremely irrelevant to Spillers situation.I think the only stats that can be used to prove or disprove spiller has to be 2000 or later. We are in a RBBC era and those stats speak of the workhorse era.

You realize you have this entirely backwards, right? Since 2000 the #1 RB has more carries and a greater percentage of the team's carries than has been true at any previous time frame in NFL history.

 

[CompetitiveEdgeFootball]

If you want hope...look to deangello williams...he was TERRIBLE for a few years. As soon as he was touched he would fall down....so....theres a chance spiller could be a deangello....but i see reggie bush upside. Id sell now personally.

I don't think you'd get enough for the guy given the DeAngelo upside you speak of. He's really not worth much presently.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

Based on ?

watching him play.He'll likely never be an effective between the tackles runner.believe it

well I watched him too and I came to a different conclusion.

 

[LHUCKS]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

Based on ?

watching him play.He'll likely never be an effective between the tackles runner.believe it

well I watched him to and I came to a different conclusion.

No worries, we're allowed to disagree in this forum.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

Based on ?

watching him play.He'll likely never be an effective between the tackles runner.believe it

well I watched him to and I came to a different conclusion.

No worries, we're allowed to disagree in this forum.

exactly! Although seeing you have 41k posts makes me doubt my opinion lol

 

[CalBear]

watching him play.He'll likely never be an effective between the tackles runner.believe it

well I watched him to and I came to a different conclusion.

No worries, we're allowed to disagree in this forum.

exactly! Although seeing you have 41k posts makes me doubt my opinion lol

Read some of those posts, you'll get over it.

 

[DawnBTVS]

I think a bigger factor in Spiller's rise will be whether he can cut into the receptions that Fred Jackson gets. I think a large part of the RBBC talk is far less about the carries (as has been brought up in this thread) but more so on the receiving side of the ball with the proliferation of 3rd Down Specialists who get a lot of catches and thus "cut into" the total touches of the main RBs. The #1 RB on a team may get 85% of the carries but may only get 30-40% of the RB catches, thus his value as a receiver declines despite the value of his running remaining high.

 

[Dreamer]

Spiller is a poor man's Reggie Bush...only draft him if he slides in deep PPRs.

Based on ?

watching him play.He'll likely never be an effective between the tackles runner.believe it

well I watched him to and I came to a different conclusion.

No worries, we're allowed to disagree in this forum.

exactly! Although seeing you have 41k posts makes me doubt my opinion lol

Hi new guy.

 

[Go deep]

I would argue that looking at RB numbers from 1985-2000 is extremely irrelevant to Spillers situation.

I think the only stats that can be used to prove or disprove spiller has to be 2000 or later. We are in a RBBC era and those stats speak of the workhorse era.

I quickly pulled data from 1993, 1994, 1995, 2003, 2004, 2005. Here are the top 10 in rushing attempts in each of those years:1993

1. Thurman Thomas* · BUF 355

2. Leonard Russell · NWE 300

3. Jerome Bettis*+ · RAM 294

4. Rodney Hampton* · NYG 292

Erric Pegram · ATL 292

6. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 283

7. Chris Warren* · SEA 273

8. Ronald Moore · PHO 263

9. Barry Sanders* · DET 243

10. Rod Bernstine · DEN 223

Reggie Brooks · WAS 223

1994

1. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 368

2. Natrone Means* · SDG 343

3. Chris Warren* · SEA 333

4. Barry Sanders*+ · DET 331

5. Rodney Hampton · NYG 327

6. Jerome Bettis* · RAM 319

7. Marshall Faulk* · IND 314

8. Thurman Thomas · BUF 287

9. Errict Rhett · TAM 284

10. Harvey Williams · RAI 282

1995

1. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 377

2. Curtis Martin* · NWE 368

3. Terry Allen · WAS 338

4. Ricky Watters* · PHI 337

5. Errict Rhett · TAM 332

6. Edgar Bennett · GNB 316

7. Barry Sanders*+ · DET 314

8. Chris Warren* · SEA 310

9. Rodney Hampton · NYG 306

10. Rashaan Salaam · CHI 296

2003

1. Ricky Williams · MIA 392

2. Jamal Lewis*+ · BAL 387

3. Ahman Green* · GNB 355

4. Deuce McAllister* · NOR 351

5. Fred Taylor · JAX 345

6. Travis Henry · BUF 331

7. Shaun Alexander* · SEA 326

8. Curtis Martin · NYJ 323

9. Priest Holmes*+ · KAN 320

10. Stephen Davis* · CAR 318

2004

1. Curtis Martin*+ · NYJ 371

2. Rudi Johnson* · CIN 361

3. Shaun Alexander* · SEA 353

4. Corey Dillon* · NWE 345

5. Clinton Portis · WAS 343

6. L. Tomlinson*+ · SDG 339

7. Edgerrin James* · IND 334

8. Tiki Barber* · NYG 322

9. Domanick Williams · HOU 302

10. Willis McGahee · BUF 284

2005

1. Shaun Alexander*+ · SEA 370

2. Edgerrin James* · IND 360

3. Tiki Barber*+ · NYG 357

4. Clinton Portis · WAS 352

5. L. Tomlinson* · SDG 339

6. Rudi Johnson · CIN 337

7. Larry Johnson* · KAN 336

8. Willis McGahee · BUF 325

9. Thomas Jones · CHI 314

10. Reuben Droughns · CLE 309

I'm not seeing it.

I dont know, maybe im wrong. I just feel like since 2008 the fantasy game has changed substantially

I tend to agree with you, over the last few years the league has moved more towards RBBC.

Like i argued with Best, I would argue that Spillers bad rookie year isnt a bad sign based on how many rookie RB's drafted in the first two rounds over the past few years went on to have top 10 seasons after a bad rookie year. DWilliams, Mcfadden, Mendenhall, Rice, Charles, Mccoy. That doesnt mean that Spiller(Best or Mathews) will go on to have success, but its proof that a bad rookie season doesnt eliminate you from being a top 10 RB in the near future.

I think you also need to pay attention to who was in front of said rookie in the determination. For example, LJ had Priest in front of him, and from your list, McFadden was injured some, Mendenhall had Parker, Rice had McGahee, Charles had LJ, and McCoy had Westbrook. Sure, many of these vets were fading at this point, but they also warranted extra chances based on previous output and comfortability within the offense. Williams just had Foster, so he would be in the camp favoring a rebound from Spiller, but Spiller himself, just had to get through Fred Jackson! He can certainly turn it around, but comparing to those other guys is misleading IMO.

Before we get started on the first bolded part, lets talk a bit about Fred Jackson. I can tell when someone hasnt watch much Bills football(not that i blame you) when they make comments like this. Fred Jackson must be the most underrated RB in football. Not saying he is Adrian Peterson, but the guy has been terrific for the Bills and the biggest of only a few bright spots over the last 3 years. He has averaged 4.4 YPC in his four year career behind one of the worst offensive lines i have even seen(im not exagerating). Not to mention having Trent Edwards as the QB, the guy couldnt throw more than 10 yards down the field. Not only was Jackson a good runner, but he was a good receiver out of the backfield and a good pass blocker(the thing that usually keeps rookie RB's off the field). I have no doubt Jackson would start or get significant touches in an RBBC for more than half the teams in the league.On to the first bolded:

Charles couldnt beat out LJ during his rookie year. The same LJ that averaged 2.7 YPC and was released that season.

Mcfadden was injured some, but people were saying the same things about him as they are about Spiller.

Mendenhall had Parker, and Parker averaged 3.8 YPC during Mendenhalls rookie season and was off the team a year later.

Rice did have Mcgahee during his rookie season, but it was a FB, Leron Mcclain who led the team in carries. Neither he nor Mcgahee averaged 4 YPC that season.

Last but not least, and i will say that maybe it was you who wasnt paying attention. Brian Westbrook had a total of 61 carries during Mccoys rookie year. Most backups get more than that.

Edit to add, the RB that kept a healthy Mcfadden on the bench was the great Justin Fargas.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Great post Aabye. Now that someone has given me statistical reasons to worry about Spiller.....I'm actually worried. Seriously - great post.

Thank you sir. I've had to temper expectations for Spiller somewhat. I really like him, so I am looking hard for reasons to be optimistic, but so far I haven't found very much.

great work there AAbye, but Spiller had like 100 total touches in his rookie season. To me making judgement on such a small sample size for a player with good talent is being too short sighted.Fred Jackson plays very well for a journeyman type RB and will cut into Spillers production, but its only a matter of time before the cream rises to the top. Personally Im buying this offseason.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Personally, I think the shark move here is trading for Fred Jackson and backing him up with a late 3rd/4th round rookie pick in Johnny White. I just dont see it happening with Spiller in anything more than a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles type of role. I would much rather take my chances with a very low priced package of Jackson/White.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I pulled the stats for 1st round RBs from 2001 to 2005 to see how Aabye's theory applied to them. Obviously SJax, Larry Johnson, and Deuce sat for their first year or two.

Format: Name Y1-VBD Y2-and-later-YBD

2001

LT 85 1226

Deuce McAllister 0 292

Michael Bennett 0 48

2002

William Green 0 0

TJ Duckett 0 11

2003

Willis McGahee 50 85

Larry Johnson 0 365

2004

Steven Jackson 0 406

Chris Perry 0 0

Kevin Jones 10 8

2005

Ronnie Brown 1 36

Cedric Benson 0 61

Caddy Williams 19 0

Avg Y2+ VBD for RBs with 0 Y1 YBD: 148 (8 guys, at least 3 were at some point elite RBs)

Avg Y2+ VBD for RBs with 1+ Y1 YBD: 271 (5 guys, LT heavily weights these values

In the 0 Y1 group there's 3 guys who at some point were elite RBs, plus a couple other nice RBs. In the 1+ Y1 group there's LT and a bunch of trash. Without LT's stats it's a 32 post-rookie career VBD for these guys. Kevin Jones and Caddy fell apart. Ronnie sort of did too. McGahee was up and down. I would argue Ronnie is the only one of those that ever seemed an elite talent on the level of SJax or even Deuce.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I remember people comparing him to Chris Johnson before he was drafted. Never understood that comparison. I'm guessing because of his speed. I see a lot of Spiller owners in this thread who bought into that.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I remember people comparing him to Chris Johnson before he was drafted. Never understood that comparison. I'm guessing because of his speed. I see a lot of Spiller owners in this thread who bought into that.

Chris johnson was a later NFL pick than Spiller, and in dynasty rookie drafts Spiller went before CJohnson in their repsective drafts too.Hindsight is 20/20. I agree that the comparision isnt fair.

 

[Go deep]

I remember people comparing him to Chris Johnson before he was drafted. Never understood that comparison. I'm guessing because of his speed. I see a lot of Spiller owners in this thread who bought into that.

Really? you dont have any idea why the two might have been campared? Do you watch college football?

No, i dont own Spiller. im also pretty sure that none of his owners were realistically expecting him to run for 2000 yards in his rookie season.