Close Calls: "Better talent vs Better Situation" (1 Viewer)

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Both of these guys are nice rb's for next year. Most view Stewert as a top 5 rb talent. Elite talent i must say myself.

Greene on the other hand has about a dream situation not that JStew is all that bad but Greene has a chance to post some monster numbers.

He doesnt have DWill to contend with and should be in line for the touches close to what TJones got last year.

So lets say in a NON PPR Dynasty, is there any debate here. Its known by many that talent wins out, this isnt to say Greene is without talents cause

he is a good rb in his own right but probably not near Stewerts skillset. Most will draft these guys as a high upside rb2. If thats the case who would you roll with?

 

[duece2626]

Stewart

 

[Malabar]

Stewart easy. You go with the much much superior talent over a nicer short term situation.

 

[n20]

Stewie... he's a beast.

 

[dwyadog]

jstew every day all day, who knows what jstews situation will be like once hes as old as greene, dwil should most likely be outta the way then

 

[thehornet]

Sure, Stewarts more talented, but i would not be surprised at all if Greene outscored Stewart in each of the next 3 seasons.

 

[moderated]

Sure, Stewarts more talented, but i would not be surprised at all if Greene outscored Stewart in each of the next 3 seasons.

At the same time Greene could be replaced by a more talented RB as soon as 2011.Forte, another decent but not great talent, went from thought of as a great FF guy to trash within the span of a year.In dynasty if there is a big talent gap it is never a good idea to take the lower talent guy no matter what the situation is since their job is never stable.

 

[az_prof]

Sure, Stewarts more talented, but i would not be surprised at all if Greene outscored Stewart in each of the next 3 seasons.

At the same time Greene could be replaced by a more talented RB as soon as 2011.Forte, another decent but not great talent, went from thought of as a great FF guy to trash within the span of a year.In dynasty if there is a big talent gap it is never a good idea to take the lower talent guy no matter what the situation is since their job is never stable.

I agree. Give me Stewart and it isn't even close.

 

[D'OHtis]

Stewart

Greene is closer than Dwyer than Stewart.

 

[Routilla]

I thought DWill and Stewart were in a RBBC. I would want Greene without question now that TJ's gone.

 

[whitewizard]

greene he has the talent and the role to be at the very least the goal line back, and probably the major hog of the carries.

 

[cobalt_27]

greene he has the talent and the role to be at the very least the goal line back, and probably the major hog of the carries.

Which is undoubtedly better than RBBC in CAR. Seriously, people. This isn't that difficult.

 

[Bob Magaw]

it might be closer in redraft, but i agree, not close in dynasty...

greene could be underrated, though... i think he was first rookie RB ever to get 100 yards and 1 TD in his first two playoff games?

despite entering the league a season after stewart, he is nearly two years older (greene turns 25 in aug, stewart 23 on 3-21)...

* for dynasty purposes, i don't know if i would be too worried about deangelo/RBBC long term. think he is signed through 2010 only... possibly he could be re-signed, but not a given. imo, fear of that would not be a compelling reason to avoid stewart and choose greene.

 

[CaptainHook]

seriously.

this is a close call with j stew probly having the edge as far as who you want to have in this upcoming season. dynasty??? L o L

 

[citsalp]

I'll take Greene, not even close. Fox kept Delhomme as his starting QB long past his effectiveness. With Dwill in the mix, I see the same.

Let me win now, or gamble that Fox changes his colors...RBBC in the Panthers...

I take Greene and that OL!

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

seriously.this is a close call with j stew probly having the edge as far as who you want to have in this upcoming season. dynasty??? L o L

Well even myself have Stewert as a top 5 dynasty rb. I dont think i even had Greene as top 10 although that was before the release of TJones, but just as Turner was ranked very high the last few years i think Greene will be like a younger version of him and do quiet well. Just was wondering was i just thinking off a bit with my ranking of stew well ahead of Greene when its quiet possibly Greene outscores him easily this year with TJ out of the mix.

 

[No Way Jose]

The man-love for JStew on this board is extreme....People have so much confidence in this guy to put up huge numbers yet has never been a #1 rb and it could be a while before he is ever a #1 rb if the Panthers resign DWill. I like Jstew, but imo its a little early to consider him a top5 dynasty rb purely on upside. I'll take production now with Greene and let my upside sit on the bench.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The man-love for JStew on this board is extreme....People have so much confidence in this guy to put up huge numbers yet has never been a #1 rb and it could be a while before he is ever a #1 rb if the Panthers resign DWill. I like Jstew, but imo its a little early to consider him a top5 dynasty rb purely on upside. I'll take production now with Greene and let my upside sit on the bench.

Greene has never been a #1 RB either, so how can you give him the benefit of the doubt and not Stewart? Basically...Stewart has elite talent and that is where most of the so-called man-love comes from. I'll take elite talent over decent talent every day of the week and take my chances. I personally think Stewart becomes a 1500 yard 15 TD RB once D Will is gone and even knowing D Will is likely to still be there this season, I'd still take Stewart much high than I'd take Greene in a startup dynasty draft because elite talent like he has is the toughest thing to acquire in a dynasty league. Greene does have talent, but nowhere near the level of Stewart.

 

[No Way Jose]

The man-love for JStew on this board is extreme....People have so much confidence in this guy to put up huge numbers yet has never been a #1 rb and it could be a while before he is ever a #1 rb if the Panthers resign DWill. I like Jstew, but imo its a little early to consider him a top5 dynasty rb purely on upside. I'll take production now with Greene and let my upside sit on the bench.

Greene has never been a #1 RB either, so how can you give him the benefit of the doubt and not Stewart? Basically...Stewart has elite talent and that is where most of the so-called man-love comes from. I'll take elite talent over decent talent every day of the week and take my chances. I personally think Stewart becomes a 1500 yard 15 TD RB once D Will is gone and even knowing D Will is likely to still be there this season, I'd still take Stewart much high than I'd take Greene in a startup dynasty draft because elite talent like he has is the toughest thing to acquire in a dynasty league. Greene does have talent, but nowhere near the level of Stewart.

I don't think that the Jets let TJones walk if they don't think SGreene has elite talent. They don't move up in the draft to select SGreene if they don't think he has elite talent, Now if L T goes to the jets I might sing a different tune, but given both situations right now I like SGreene better. Right now JStew isn't even the best Rb on his team. I think they are both great prospects and would be happy to have either on my team, I just don't see how so many have JStew that much further ahead of SGreene.

 

[Bob Magaw]

The man-love for JStew on this board is extreme....People have so much confidence in this guy to put up huge numbers yet has never been a #1 rb and it could be a while before he is ever a #1 rb if the Panthers resign DWill. I like Jstew, but imo its a little early to consider him a top5 dynasty rb purely on upside. I'll take production now with Greene and let my upside sit on the bench.

Greene has never been a #1 RB either, so how can you give him the benefit of the doubt and not Stewart? Basically...Stewart has elite talent and that is where most of the so-called man-love comes from. I'll take elite talent over decent talent every day of the week and take my chances. I personally think Stewart becomes a 1500 yard 15 TD RB once D Will is gone and even knowing D Will is likely to still be there this season, I'd still take Stewart much high than I'd take Greene in a startup dynasty draft because elite talent like he has is the toughest thing to acquire in a dynasty league. Greene does have talent, but nowhere near the level of Stewart.

I don't think that the Jets let TJones walk if they don't think SGreene has elite talent. They don't move up in the draft to select SGreene if they don't think he has elite talent, Now if L T goes to the jets I might sing a different tune, but given both situations right now I like SGreene better. Right now JStew isn't even the best Rb on his team. I think they are both great prospects and would be happy to have either on my team, I just don't see how so many have JStew that much further ahead of SGreene.

they traded up to get him... in the 3rd round...stewart went in the top half of the 1st...based purely on pedigree, stewart was far more highly regarded.again, not really close.

 

[Christo]

The man-love for JStew on this board is extreme....People have so much confidence in this guy to put up huge numbers yet has never been a #1 rb and it could be a while before he is ever a #1 rb if the Panthers resign DWill. I like Jstew, but imo its a little early to consider him a top5 dynasty rb purely on upside. I'll take production now with Greene and let my upside sit on the bench.

Greene has never been a #1 RB either, so how can you give him the benefit of the doubt and not Stewart? Basically...Stewart has elite talent and that is where most of the so-called man-love comes from. I'll take elite talent over decent talent every day of the week and take my chances. I personally think Stewart becomes a 1500 yard 15 TD RB once D Will is gone and even knowing D Will is likely to still be there this season, I'd still take Stewart much high than I'd take Greene in a startup dynasty draft because elite talent like he has is the toughest thing to acquire in a dynasty league. Greene does have talent, but nowhere near the level of Stewart.

I don't think that the Jets let TJones walk if they don't think SGreene has elite talent. They don't move up in the draft to select SGreene if they don't think he has elite talent, Now if L T goes to the jets I might sing a different tune, but given both situations right now I like SGreene better. Right now JStew isn't even the best Rb on his team. I think they are both great prospects and would be happy to have either on my team, I just don't see how so many have JStew that much further ahead of SGreene.

Because Stewart's the guy who actually has elite talent.

 

[No Way Jose]

Ok, so if DWill is signed tommorow to a 4 year extension, does your mind change at all?

 

[cmv5]

Has there been any word on Jonathan Stewart's achilles tendon? I can't help but be concerned about that as it seems that he has been dealing with foot problems since before entering the league. This is my only concern with him and I would still rank him ahead of Greene.

I will say I think Greene is getting too much hate lately. The two reasons I keep seeing are injury concerns and talent. For example with regards to injury concerns, when listening to The Audible, it seems the only thing worth debating is which Sunday Greene gets hurt. Yet they seem to still like Steven Jackson who at least to me has an even more contact-seeking running style, a bad back and more miles. Then the talent issue, I think it is a mistake to assume the man is so talentless that Arian Foster or the like could come in and do just as good of a job. He ran well against three good playoff teams and I think the fresh legs argument gets too much credit here.

 

[destro]

Ok, so if DWill is signed tommorow to a 4 year extension, does your mind change at all?

It better change your mind, and that scenario is very plausible...

The Panthers may "lock up" DeAngelo Williams with a contract extension before this season, according to ESPN's Len Pasquarelli.

Williams' current deal expires after the 2010 campaign. The Panthers have no plans of moving away from their run-heavy scheme, so keeping Williams in the fold along with Jonathan Stewart makes sense. Both are elite backs.

I understand what people are saying here about the perceived talent difference between Greene and Stewart, but the reality in the NFL is that when it comes to running back production, opportunity is far and away the most important factor. How often have we seen mediocre talents have very successful fantasy seasons based solely on stumbling into the right situation? Why do we race to pick up every random no name RB that happens to find themselves getting 20 carries a game? Why do guys like Quinton Ganther suddenly matter down the stretch in fantasy seasons?The reason is that the RB's situation, the opportunity to amass yards and touchdowns, accounts for almost everything in fantasy. Talented RBs will outproduce mediocre talents in similar situations, and sometimes even in a worse situation (e.g. Steven Jackson vs many RBs). If they aren't getting the carries, though, it doesn't really matter. Opportunity is everything. Especially with RBBC slowly taking over the NFL, finding a RB in a situation where he seems likely to get 15-25 carries a game on a consistent basis is gold. Carries are what counts the most, but the quality of the carries is a factor as well. If this situation happens to involve a great OL and a competent but not overly prolific passing game, and it gets even better. This is the situation that Shonn Greene finds himself in.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Stewart, while likely a more talented back, is fighting for carries with a Pro Bowl RB. With the Panthers dropping hints about possibly signing Williams long term, how can you not be concerned with Stewart's opportunity? In a vacuum, I would take Stewart over Greene, and I think most would agree. The problem is that this isn't a vacuum, and there's good reason to believe that Greene will have a far greater opportunity to produce than Stewart will for the foreseeable future.

If the Panthers sign Williams long term, then there's no question here, at all. Stewart's value would decrease significantly, and Greene would be the better bet going forward. However, if LT were to sign with the Jets tomorrow, and Ryan proclaims it a full RBBC situation, then it becomes murky, but neither would be in very good situations.

 

[Cassius]

Ok, so if DWill is signed tommorow to a 4 year extension, does your mind change at all?

My league gives points for having elite talent, so no, doesn't change my mind.

 

[SSOG]

The man-love for JStew on this board is extreme....People have so much confidence in this guy to put up huge numbers yet has never been a #1 rb and it could be a while before he is ever a #1 rb if the Panthers resign DWill. I like Jstew, but imo its a little early to consider him a top5 dynasty rb purely on upside. I'll take production now with Greene and let my upside sit on the bench.

People have confidence that Stewart will put up huge numbers because Stewart has already put up huge numbers. Williams missed week 13, 16, and 17 last year, and he was injured early in week 15. In those 4 weeks, when it was the JStew show, Stewart put up 95 carries, 560 yards, and 4 TDs rushing, with another 5/36/1 receiving. Those are monster numbers. 150 yards and 1.25 TDs a week, 5.9 yards per carry. Everyone's been saying for two years "if JStew ever gets the job, he's going to put up video game numbers", and then JStew got the starting job and went out and put up video game numbers.

 

[Cassius]

The man-love for JStew on this board is extreme....People have so much confidence in this guy to put up huge numbers yet has never been a #1 rb and it could be a while before he is ever a #1 rb if the Panthers resign DWill. I like Jstew, but imo its a little early to consider him a top5 dynasty rb purely on upside. I'll take production now with Greene and let my upside sit on the bench.

People have confidence that Stewart will put up huge numbers because Stewart has already put up huge numbers. Williams missed week 13, 16, and 17 last year, and he was injured early in week 15. In those 4 weeks, when it was the JStew show, Stewart put up 95 carries, 560 yards, and 4 TDs rushing, with another 5/36/1 receiving. Those are monster numbers. 150 yards and 1.25 TDs a week, 5.9 yards per carry. Everyone's been saying for two years "if JStew ever gets the job, he's going to put up video game numbers", and then JStew got the starting job and went out and put up video game numbers.

Actually I'm guessing the "huge numbers" people are waiting for involve more than 3 games at the end of one year. So, no.

 

[No Way Jose]

The man-love for JStew on this board is extreme....People have so much confidence in this guy to put up huge numbers yet has never been a #1 rb and it could be a while before he is ever a #1 rb if the Panthers resign DWill. I like Jstew, but imo its a little early to consider him a top5 dynasty rb purely on upside. I'll take production now with Greene and let my upside sit on the bench.

People have confidence that Stewart will put up huge numbers because Stewart has already put up huge numbers. Williams missed week 13, 16, and 17 last year, and he was injured early in week 15. In those 4 weeks, when it was the JStew show, Stewart put up 95 carries, 560 yards, and 4 TDs rushing, with another 5/36/1 receiving. Those are monster numbers. 150 yards and 1.25 TDs a week, 5.9 yards per carry. Everyone's been saying for two years "if JStew ever gets the job, he's going to put up video game numbers", and then JStew got the starting job and went out and put up video game numbers.

I see you have JStew on your team, so I'm sure you are high on him, thats OK. Jerome Harrison and Jamal Charles put up huge numbers at the end of the season too, but I don't see them getting the love that JStew gets. If he was that great, why is he not the #1 back on his team? I think JStew will have a great career, but as long as Dwill is there, I dont see where his yards are gonna come from.

 

[jackdubl]

I understand what people are saying here about the perceived talent difference between Greene and Stewart, but the reality in the NFL is that when it comes to running back production, opportunity is far and away the most important factor. How often have we seen mediocre talents have very successful fantasy seasons based solely on stumbling into the right situation? Why do we race to pick up every random no name RB that happens to find themselves getting 20 carries a game? Why do guys like Quinton Ganther suddenly matter down the stretch in fantasy seasons?

The reason is that the RB's situation, the opportunity to amass yards and touchdowns, accounts for almost everything in fantasy. Talented RBs will outproduce mediocre talents in similar situations, and sometimes even in a worse situation (e.g. Steven Jackson vs many RBs). If they aren't getting the carries, though, it doesn't really matter. Opportunity is everything. Especially with RBBC slowly taking over the NFL, finding a RB in a situation where he seems likely to get 15-25 carries a game on a consistent basis is gold. Carries are what counts the most, but the quality of the carries is a factor as well. If this situation happens to involve a great OL and a competent but not overly prolific passing game, and it gets even better. This is the situation that Shonn Greene finds himself in.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Stewart, while likely a more talented back, is fighting for carries with a Pro Bowl RB.

Destro sums it up pretty well here. Opportunity definitely trumps talent in fantasy, and that's true at the RB position more than any other. Therefore, Green>Stewart until DWill is gone, if ever. And I don't think that changes if LT signs with NY. Green would get TJ carries at the least if that happened.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Opportunity definitely trumps talent in fantasy

While this may be true in a redraft league, I will personally never agree with that in a dynasty league. I'll collect talent and let the situations play themselves out. That may not work short term, but for consistent long-term success in dynasty leagues, talent blows away opportunity. If I need something for the short term in a dynasty league, older players can be acquired.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

The man-love for JStew on this board is extreme....People have so much confidence in this guy to put up huge numbers yet has never been a #1 rb and it could be a while before he is ever a #1 rb if the Panthers resign DWill. I like Jstew, but imo its a little early to consider him a top5 dynasty rb purely on upside. I'll take production now with Greene and let my upside sit on the bench.

People have confidence that Stewart will put up huge numbers because Stewart has already put up huge numbers. Williams missed week 13, 16, and 17 last year, and he was injured early in week 15. In those 4 weeks, when it was the JStew show, Stewart put up 95 carries, 560 yards, and 4 TDs rushing, with another 5/36/1 receiving. Those are monster numbers. 150 yards and 1.25 TDs a week, 5.9 yards per carry. Everyone's been saying for two years "if JStew ever gets the job, he's going to put up video game numbers", and then JStew got the starting job and went out and put up video game numbers.

I see you have JStew on your team, so I'm sure you are high on him, thats OK. Jerome Harrison and Jamal Charles put up huge numbers at the end of the season too, but I don't see them getting the love that JStew gets. If he was that great, why is he not the #1 back on his team? I think JStew will have a great career, but as long as Dwill is there, I dont see where his yards are gonna come from.

I think he is high on Stewart (as I am) because of his supreme natural talent. Very few RBs have the complete package of elite skills that Stewart has. It has nothing to do with stats. There is no comparison talent wise between Stewart and Charles and someone like Harrison doesn't even belong in the conversation. It has nothing to do with owning Stewart. I also own him, but I was this high on him before he ever played in the NFL and all that has happened since is I am even higher on him. Also, the reason he is not starting is because there is another stud RB on the Panthers. But he did start 4 games last year. He finished 11th in points and only started 4 games. In terms of talent, Stewart is a beast. Opportunity comes at some point and when it does, you have a top 5 RB on your hands. Even if it doesn't right away, he will still put up top 20 numbers in a timeshare. I'll take that any day.

 

[Cassius]

Opportunity definitely trumps talent in fantasy

While this may be true in a redraft league, I will personally never agree with that in a dynasty league. I'll collect talent and let the situations play themselves out. That may not work short term, but for consistent long-term success in dynasty leagues, talent blows away opportunity. If I need something for the short term in a dynasty league, older players can be acquired.

This is the problem. Most people, probably everyone except for this poster you're responding to, understands that almost always, opportunity should be a distant second to talent. The problem is peoples' inability to understand that this is simply a unique situation that is rarely seen in football - two top 10 talented RB's on the same team. In this case, holding on to talent and just waiting for the other talented RB to get out of town is a poor strategy - the same reasons that you say JStew will eventually emerge in Carolina are the same reasons that Carolina likely won't let DeAngello go.It's a special situation, not an endictment on talent vs. situation. How long is the average career for an NFL RB? How long is that window open? These are important questions to people who just sit on Stewart, so happy to see his name ranked so high on off-season dynasty lists that they don't mind that more than half the time, he's not even a startable RB2. Especially when you consider Stewart's propensity to get hurt.

 

[Christo]

Opportunity definitely trumps talent in fantasy

While this may be true in a redraft league, I will personally never agree with that in a dynasty league. I'll collect talent and let the situations play themselves out. That may not work short term, but for consistent long-term success in dynasty leagues, talent blows away opportunity. If I need something for the short term in a dynasty league, older players can be acquired.

This is the problem. Most people, probably everyone except for this poster you're responding to, understands that almost always, opportunity should be a distant second to talent. The problem is peoples' inability to understand that this is simply a unique situation that is rarely seen in football - two top 10 talented RB's on the same team. In this case, holding on to talent and just waiting for the other talented RB to get out of town is a poor strategy - the same reasons that you say JStew will eventually emerge in Carolina are the same reasons that Carolina likely won't let DeAngello go.It's a special situation, not an endictment on talent vs. situation. How long is the average career for an NFL RB? How long is that window open? These are important questions to people who just sit on Stewart, so happy to see his name ranked so high on off-season dynasty lists that they don't mind that more than half the time, he's not even a startable RB2. Especially when you consider Stewart's propensity to get hurt.

But jackdubl's statement wasn't tailored to this situation, it was definitive. That being said, in a vacuum I'd still rather have Stewart on my roster. I'm willing to wait.

 

[Cassius]

Opportunity definitely trumps talent in fantasy

While this may be true in a redraft league, I will personally never agree with that in a dynasty league. I'll collect talent and let the situations play themselves out. That may not work short term, but for consistent long-term success in dynasty leagues, talent blows away opportunity. If I need something for the short term in a dynasty league, older players can be acquired.

This is the problem. Most people, probably everyone except for this poster you're responding to, understands that almost always, opportunity should be a distant second to talent. The problem is peoples' inability to understand that this is simply a unique situation that is rarely seen in football - two top 10 talented RB's on the same team. In this case, holding on to talent and just waiting for the other talented RB to get out of town is a poor strategy - the same reasons that you say JStew will eventually emerge in Carolina are the same reasons that Carolina likely won't let DeAngello go.It's a special situation, not an endictment on talent vs. situation. How long is the average career for an NFL RB? How long is that window open? These are important questions to people who just sit on Stewart, so happy to see his name ranked so high on off-season dynasty lists that they don't mind that more than half the time, he's not even a startable RB2. Especially when you consider Stewart's propensity to get hurt.

But jackdubl's statement wasn't tailored to this situation, it was definitive. That being said, in a vacuum I'd still rather have Stewart on my roster. I'm willing to wait.

Yeah, I know, I don't agree with jackdubl at all, which I implied there. This is an exception, not the rule.And wait for what? For how long?

 

[Christo]

And wait for what? For how long?

Whatever happens. However long it takes.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Opportunity definitely trumps talent in fantasy

While this may be true in a redraft league, I will personally never agree with that in a dynasty league. I'll collect talent and let the situations play themselves out. That may not work short term, but for consistent long-term success in dynasty leagues, talent blows away opportunity. If I need something for the short term in a dynasty league, older players can be acquired.

This is the problem. Most people, probably everyone except for this poster you're responding to, understands that almost always, opportunity should be a distant second to talent. The problem is peoples' inability to understand that this is simply a unique situation that is rarely seen in football - two top 10 talented RB's on the same team. In this case, holding on to talent and just waiting for the other talented RB to get out of town is a poor strategy - the same reasons that you say JStew will eventually emerge in Carolina are the same reasons that Carolina likely won't let DeAngello go.It's a special situation, not an endictment on talent vs. situation. How long is the average career for an NFL RB? How long is that window open? These are important questions to people who just sit on Stewart, so happy to see his name ranked so high on off-season dynasty lists that they don't mind that more than half the time, he's not even a startable RB2. Especially when you consider Stewart's propensity to get hurt.

I'll still take my chances because it's rare to get many chances at a 22 year old RB with top 5 talent. If I get stuck, then I get stuck. At his age, the window is not an issue and neither is his injury situation since he has never missed a game. It's not about "waiting for the other talented RB to get out of town", it's about collecting as much elite talent as I can. Elite talent eventually makes its way onto the field and I'll gladly be patient and wait. This may not be for everyone, but I always do this and probably always will.

 

[SSOG]

Actually I'm guessing the "huge numbers" people are waiting for involve more than 3 games at the end of one year. So, no.

You want season-long numbers? Stewart's already got an 11th place fantasy finish despite the fact that he only has 3 career starts. That's pretty huge, imo. If he can finish 11th with just 3 starts, imagine what he could do with 16.Jonathan Stewart has definitely shown enough on the field so far to justify everyone's assessment of his talent coming into the league.

The man-love for JStew on this board is extreme....People have so much confidence in this guy to put up huge numbers yet has never been a #1 rb and it could be a while before he is ever a #1 rb if the Panthers resign DWill. I like Jstew, but imo its a little early to consider him a top5 dynasty rb purely on upside. I'll take production now with Greene and let my upside sit on the bench.

People have confidence that Stewart will put up huge numbers because Stewart has already put up huge numbers. Williams missed week 13, 16, and 17 last year, and he was injured early in week 15. In those 4 weeks, when it was the JStew show, Stewart put up 95 carries, 560 yards, and 4 TDs rushing, with another 5/36/1 receiving. Those are monster numbers. 150 yards and 1.25 TDs a week, 5.9 yards per carry. Everyone's been saying for two years "if JStew ever gets the job, he's going to put up video game numbers", and then JStew got the starting job and went out and put up video game numbers.

I see you have JStew on your team, so I'm sure you are high on him, thats OK. Jerome Harrison and Jamal Charles put up huge numbers at the end of the season too, but I don't see them getting the love that JStew gets. If he was that great, why is he not the #1 back on his team? I think JStew will have a great career, but as long as Dwill is there, I dont see where his yards are gonna come from.

The big difference between Stewart and Charles is that Stewart had huge pedigree. People were saying for two years that he was one of the top RBs in the league, long before he'd ever had a chance to really showcase it. The huge games at the end of the year merely supported a long-held belief. Charles, on the other hand, really came out of nowhere. His numbers didn't support a common opinion, it instead caused us to re-evaluate a common opinion. And for what it's worth, I'm also very high on Charles, and will hopefully be a Charles owner in the not-so-distant future, too.As for Harrison... the difference is that Stewart had 4 huge games in 4 attempts, while Harrison had one huge game and two relative duds (by NFL standards, not fantasy standards). Over the last two weeks, he got 39 and 33 carries... which is cool... but he only averaged 3.8 ypc with them, which is pretty awful. Harrison's also 27 already- he's actually older than DeAngelo, Gore, and SJax.Also, I don't think there's any shame to being the #2 to a top 5 NFL RB, either. Especially when you're such a good #2 that your team carves you out an abnormally large role despite the fact that they've got a top 5 NFL RB already.

 

[No Way Jose]

So, to you JStew owners......would you trade JStew straight up for DWill right now in dynasty? 3 years of top 10 production, then a more than likely slow down by Dwill, or 3 years of rb 2or3 then a likely 3 years of top 10 production by JStew. I prefer the instant gratification, unless my team had no chance of contending for the forseable future.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

So, to you JStew owners......would you trade JStew straight up for DWill right now in dynasty?

Not a chance.

 

[moderated]

I'll still take my chances because it's rare to get many chances at a 22 year old RB with top 5 talent. If I get stuck, then I get stuck. At his age, the window is not an issue and neither is his injury situation since he has never missed a game. It's not about "waiting for the other talented RB to get out of town", it's about collecting as much elite talent as I can. Elite talent eventually makes its way onto the field and I'll gladly be patient and wait. This may not be for everyone, but I always do this and probably always will.

Not to mention Shonne Greene is 2 years older then Stewart. In dynasty this really isn't even close.This is a great thread to separate the gupps and sharks. There is no valid argument for Greene at this time, he hasn't even shown he can play at a high level for multiple games.

 

[SSOG]

So, to you JStew owners......would you trade JStew straight up for DWill right now in dynasty?

I actually had talks with the DWill owner about possibly acquiring Williams, and in the course of our discussion, either he or I made an offhand remark about whether I would have traded Stewart for Williams straight up prior to last season (he wasn't actually offering the trade, he was just wondering if I would have done it). It got me seriously thinking about the question. I finally got back to him and said that, while it might make me crazy, I wouldn't have traded JStew for DWill straight up... and this was prior to last season, back when Stewart wasn't practicing because of his Achilles and there was speculation about when he'd be ready to play (he wound up being ready by week 1). At the time, I realized it was premature to put Stewart above Williams, but the gambler in me did it anyway.Since then, all of the changes have only further favored Stewart. Williams is a year older. Stewart is a year closer to his full-time gig (whenever or wherever that will be). Now Williams is the guy coming off an injury, while Stewart has only gotten healthier. Most importantly, now I've actually seen what Stewart looks like as a featured RB. After all that, I definitely wouldn't trade Stewart for DWill, and I no longer feel like that's either premature or an impulsive gamble. My decision last summer also looks better in retrospect, since Stewart had the better fantasy season last year, although I fully realize that might just be a case of bad process/good outcome.

 

[dwyadog]

bad process/good outcome is something thats gotten me many times ssog. kind of like my first year of fantasy, taking all hometeam guys, just happened to be 2007 and im a pats fan ha.

im very, very high on stewart, after seeing him perform in the starting role i am perfectly content to wait a year for him to be the main guy or even longer if dwill resigns. i value talent highly and i just see the sky as the limit for him. that being said another owner in my league sees what i do i think and is going to offer me ray rice for jstew straight up, an offer i considered but am turning down. rice is in a better situation in some ways and is also talented but doesnt approach what ive seen from jstew. opinions vary though and thats great.

 

[az_prof]

So, to you JStew owners......would you trade JStew straight up for DWill right now in dynasty? 3 years of top 10 production, then a more than likely slow down by Dwill, or 3 years of rb 2or3 then a likely 3 years of top 10 production by JStew. I prefer the instant gratification, unless my team had no chance of contending for the forseable future.

Not a chance. To be honest, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Stewart out performs Williams in 2010 and becomes the lead back immediately.

 

[No Way Jose]

bad process/good outcome is something thats gotten me many times ssog. kind of like my first year of fantasy, taking all hometeam guys, just happened to be 2007 and im a pats fan ha.

im very, very high on stewart, after seeing him perform in the starting role i am perfectly content to wait a year for him to be the main guy or even longer if dwill resigns. i value talent highly and i just see the sky as the limit for him. that being said another owner in my league sees what i do i think and is going to offer me ray rice for jstew straight up, an offer i considered but am turning down. rice is in a better situation in some ways and is also talented but doesnt approach what ive seen from jstew. opinions vary though and thats great.

Not to mention Shonne Greene is 2 years older then Stewart. In dynasty this really isn't even close.

This is a great thread to separate the gupps and sharks. There is no valid argument for Greene at this time, he hasn't even shown he can play at a high level for multiple games.

If this is what you mean by separating the sharks from the gupps, then I guess I am a gupp. I would make that trade yesterday. As I said before, the man-love is strong for JStew. I however would like my first pick of a dynasty draft to at least be starting the first year. I have no problem someone putting JStew slightly ahead of SGreene in rankings, but it sounds like most don't even think its close.

 

[Bob Magaw]

i think you would find more (maybe a lot) williams owners that would trade him straight up up for stewart, than vice verce, in dynasty.

i have both in separate leagues.

while neither is as valuable as long as they are both together, it is probably important to note that they can both be very valuable. as ssog noted, stewart was nearly top 10. williams was #1 in '08.

last year, i think they were the first duo to both get 1,100 Yards...

williams broke a ton of long TDs in '08, last year had 7 TDs. Stewart had 11 TDs (10 rushing, 1 receiving). williams can be a very effective goal line runner, but stewart is built more for it, and could see an increasing share of those opportunities going forward?

stewart has had injury issues dating back to college... but hasn't missed a lot of time, an important distinction. williams did miss three games in '09, and has also missed time, dating back to college.

per the news that CAR may re-up williams, that might be another reason it makes sense to keep both, to be respective injury insurance for each other. RB is arguably the most brutal position and suffers the most attrition, a lot of teams are employing multiple RBs these days, most teams don't have the luxury of two such great RBs...

SD was great with LT in his prime & turner, MIN had peterson and taylor, JAX had taylor & MJD... CAR HAS to have the best RB situation in the NFL, and should for the forseeable future.

good point in another thread that stewart actually doesn't make that much (picked around 12 overall, not nearly as bad as if he was a top 5 pick)... so they could probably easily accomodate a williams extension... the question of how to afford two great backs could than be effectively postponed until STEWART's second contract comes due.*

and by then, williams will be a few years older, and they would seemingly be more inclined to prioritize retaining the younger stewart (by 3-4 years?)...

 

[jackdubl]

Opportunity definitely trumps talent in fantasy

While this may be true in a redraft league, I will personally never agree with that in a dynasty league. I'll collect talent and let the situations play themselves out. That may not work short term, but for consistent long-term success in dynasty leagues, talent blows away opportunity. If I need something for the short term in a dynasty league, older players can be acquired.

A lot of posters seem to take umbrage with my statement here. And with regards to dynasty, talent does get a lot more weight than redraft. I play keeper leagues, so I can't keep a player on into infinity. Got to get your return in the next few seasons. How many championships are you willing to let go by while you're waiting for Stewart to be the lead back?The evidence for situation over talent is pretty good. Let's see: Reggie Wayne is far from the most talented receiver, but hard to find a better situation. How about Marques Colston? Meachem? Brent Celek? Owen Daniels? Forte was great when his workload was great. Jamaal Charles on 20+ a game may have been the number one fantasy player. Jerome Harrison? Marc Bulger was good when Martz was in town. Is Thomas Jones the third most talented runningback in the league, 'cause that's where he finished in rushing last year. Lamont Jordan was great when he got all the carries in Oakland under Norv. Watch Boldin's numbers drop now that he's out of Arizona. How was Randy Moss in Oakland? How was TO last season? Pretty sure Lee Evans is one of the more talented receivers in the league; how's that working out? Plenty more, but you get the point.I think what you guys are saying is that talent eventually leads to the oppurtunity and in dynasty you have the luxury of waiting it out. Me? I try to win the championship every year. So you'd better have someone who IS getting the opportunity in your starting lineup while you're waiting for Stewart to get his big break. I owned DWill last season and that team is painful for fantasy owners. I remember DWill would be averaging 7 yards/carry, but they'd still bring in Stewart for 50% of the plays. And with the news that the Panthers will probably resign DWill to a long deal, you may be in this RBBC situation for another 3-4 years. Will Stewart be the same player after that? I'd rather have a lead back for those years, thank you very much. Stewart is a mid RB2. Greene is a high RB2 with RB1 upside, and he doesn't need someone to get injured or dealt for him to hit that upside.

 

[Cassius]

Just to be clear since I didn't mention this earlier, as much as I think Stewart is over-hyped, I would not trade him straight up for Greene because I do recognize the different in talent level and upside is important. Additionally, I'm not sure why the OP thinks Greene's situation is that much better than Stewart's...sure, he's not sharing a backfield with DeAngello, but he is, and is likely to always be in, a platoon.

I definitely would not trade DeAngello for Stewart though.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Just to be clear since I didn't mention this earlier, as much as I think Stewart is over-hyped, I would not trade him straight up for Greene because I do recognize the different in talent level and upside is important. Additionally, I'm not sure why the OP thinks Greene's situation is that much better than Stewart's...sure, he's not sharing a backfield with DeAngello, but he is, and is likely to always be in, a platoon.I definitely would not trade DeAngello for Stewart though.

Well before the LT signing and i think thats a good move for Greene's outlook but most see his opportunity as "GOLDEN". NYJ is a heavy rushing team like the Panthers but as i said before he doesnt have a top elite rb to contend with for carries. TJones is out of the picture. LT is a good fit fantasy wise for them as they will need a recieving rb and rb depth in general although he is running on fumes imo. I have DWill/Stew combo in a few leagues and would deal neither for Greene. The leagues i have DWILL i have STEW so its no issue would i trade DWILL for STEW although i think i would dynasty wise. Just a good ole discussion that was in my mind...I also have another one i was wondering about Wayne versus Crabtree (dynasty) Better situation/Better talent but right now im loving all the discussion in here.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

How many championships are you willing to let go by while you're waiting for Stewart to be the lead back?

Who says anyone has to let championships go while holding Stewart?

 

[SSOG]

How many championships are you willing to let go by while you're waiting for Stewart to be the lead back?

Who says anyone has to let championships go while holding Stewart?

Seriously. It's not like Stewart is dead wood. He's finished 24th and 11th in his two seasons in the league. Hell, if you want to talk about championships... how many championships were won on the back of Stewart's 222 yard, 1 TD game in the fantasy superbowl last year? He was the #1 RB in all of fantasy in week 16.