C'mon how important is SOS? (1 Viewer)

[varmint cong]

I can see it coming into play , maybe in later rounds, moving a player up or down, but in early rounds with studs, does it make you change how you draft?or do you go and live by the adage "always start your studs" and draft regardless..

 

[MLBrandow]

a huge SOS difference is a marginal tiebreaker to me.

So, not that much. It's worth considering, but it's a blunt and obscure stat.

Don't be the guy who takes Tiki Barber over Larry Johnson because LJ has the toughest run schedule and Barber has the easiest.

Edit: If I'm choosing between RB2s in the 4th round and one has a very easy and one has a very hard, all things relatively equal, I'm liable to go for the one who is likely to have the easier time.

If you want a reasonable SOS this year, make your personal projections on rush defense (based on team-by-team improvements/etc) and then it will have some real weight. Also take into account the varying situatons.

Saying Kitna's schedule is tougher because he plays GB's 2005 #1pass defense is not exactly accurate because GB's pass defense was only #1 because they couldn't stop the run with 14 guys in the box.

 

[simmonjm]

I can see it coming into play , maybe in later rounds, moving a player up or down, but in early rounds with studs, does it make you change how you draft?or do you go and live by the adage "always start your studs" and draft regardless..

Depends on your league. In my 12 team league eight teams make the playoffs. We have some newbies in our league so the chances of me making the playoffs are good. With this in mind i draft specifically for the playoff weeks. Sometimes i will reach for a player like last year i reached for Shaun Alexander instead of LT. Playing matchups during the playoff weeks has been a succesful strategy for me. If your league only allows 4 or 6 teams into the playoffs more of the regular season schedule should be factored in.

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't think it would change my projections much, but I do think playoff schedule plays a big role in who I draft. If a team has 3 pansies in the fantasy playoffs, that will get me to chose that guy over others. (I make the assumption in any league that I have enough capability to make the playoffs, so I worry about how I do in the playoffs more than how I do in the regular season.) Nothing worse than having your to QBs as Vick @ TB and McNair @ Pitt in the playoffs.

 

[GregR_2]

I can see it coming into play , maybe in later rounds, moving a player up or down, but in early rounds with studs, does it make you change how you draft?or do you go and live by the adage "always start your studs" and draft regardless..

Are you talking about traditional SOS, as in the combined win-loss record from last season for each team? Or are you talking about something like Clayton Gray's ultimate SOS that is points allowed by fantasy position?If the former, there's a good case that's been made that preseason SOS does not have a correlation to how teams actually do. That doesn't necessarily mean it doesn't correlate to how fantasy players on those teams do, but without checking it I'd be hesitant about using SOS.

If you're talking about the latter... that would be a very interesting thing to take a look at, using the previous season's team ultimate SOS and see if it correlates to how the guys did that next year.

 

[Lightning Fast Whip]

While you have to be careful about what injuries to key defenses were involved in outcomes of previous season...to ignore strentgh of schedule will lead you into some Big Mistakes especially with guys you project to "break out" that have short track record overly influenced by facing a run of bad defenses or Hurt Defenses. i.e. Kevin Jones last season. He was someone with red flags all over the place if you recalled the defenses and their injuries that he did well against in 2004 vs what his Schedule looked like for first half of 2005.

Not to bash KJ as he should bounce back nicely this year..just the hype should have been tempered last season given condition of his second half opponents in 2004 and his situation in 2005. I believe it has changed again in 2006 the other way and those bunrt last year need to understand why and forgive him before drafting this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

It changes them a little but not a lot in terms of year end total projections. In terms of player rankings I look very closely at playoff schedule for tie-breakers or close calls.

 

[coolnerd]

I am more influenced by SOS during the season with trades or waiver wire moves than I am to influence my drafts picks espcially the first few rounds. Every year in the NFL teams total performance take large tumbles and jumps, so why are not defenses going to do the same. Every year we will see that a schedule that looks very strong in July or August turns out to very questionable in December.

Example, this time last year many people were assuming that the AFC East defenses were all strong. The Bills turned out to be horrible, the Jets mediocore, and the Patriots good, but not the quality unit they had been. Chicago was thought to be an up and coming defense in the summer, not the dominate carry the team unti it turned out to be.

And yes I evaluate defenses to draft them, but for me at least this a different animal than trying to predict the specific performance of not only my indivdual offensive player, but the also of a team defense in Week 14 or 15 before Labor day.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The day someone comes up with a convincing argument that a player's 10 teammates are significantly more important than his 11 opponents, is the day I'll stop using SOS.

There are some problems with predicting SOS, but it's very important. SOS plays a much bigger role in the final fantasy standings than most fantasy players realize IMO.

 

[GregR_2]

The day someone comes up with a convincing argument that a player's 10 teammates are significantly more important than his 11 opponents, is the day I'll stop using SOS.

There are some problems with predicting SOS, but it's very important. SOS plays a much bigger role in the final fantasy standings than most fantasy players realize IMO.

That isn't what you're weighing though. The issue you are really discussing is whether his 10 teamates are more important than how his 11 opponents did LAST YEAR.When Doug checked the numbers, this year's SOS calculated using last season's results doesn't have a correlation to how teams do this year.

If you could tell us now what a team's 2006 SOS is using actual 2006 results, that would be worth including in your predictions as a significant factor.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The day someone comes up with a convincing argument that a player's 10 teammates are significantly more important than his 11 opponents, is the day I'll stop using SOS.

There are some problems with predicting SOS, but it's very important. SOS plays a much bigger role in the final fantasy standings than most fantasy players realize IMO.

That isn't what you're weighing though. The issue you are really discussing is whether his 10 teamates are more important than how his 11 opponents did LAST YEAR.When Doug checked the numbers, this year's SOS calculated using last season's results doesn't have a correlation to how teams do this year.

If you could tell us now what a team's 2006 SOS is using actual 2006 results, that would be worth including in your predictions as a significant factor.

We're not in disagreement here. If you could tell us now how a player's supporting cast will be using actual 2006 results, that would be worth including in your predictions as a significant factor.If you can predict SOS accurately, it's very important. Whether or not you can do that is another story. Lots of fantasy players aren't familiar with defenses, so they're going to rely on old (and bad) data. That's fine. But if you know a lot about defense, that's a useful tool that you can't ignore.

 

[GregR_2]

The day someone comes up with a convincing argument that a player's 10 teammates are significantly more important than his 11 opponents, is the day I'll stop using SOS.

There are some problems with predicting SOS, but it's very important. SOS plays a much bigger role in the final fantasy standings than most fantasy players realize IMO.

That isn't what you're weighing though. The issue you are really discussing is whether his 10 teamates are more important than how his 11 opponents did LAST YEAR.When Doug checked the numbers, this year's SOS calculated using last season's results doesn't have a correlation to how teams do this year.

If you could tell us now what a team's 2006 SOS is using actual 2006 results, that would be worth including in your predictions as a significant factor.

We're not in disagreement here. If you could tell us now how a player's supporting cast will be using actual 2006 results, that would be worth including in your predictions as a significant factor.If you can predict SOS accurately, it's very important. Whether or not you can do that is another story. Lots of fantasy players aren't familiar with defenses, so they're going to rely on old (and bad) data. That's fine. But if you know a lot about defense, that's a useful tool that you can't ignore.

I suppose that's the question then. How well can you predict how a defense will do next year?

 

[Chase Stuart]

The day someone comes up with a convincing argument that a player's 10 teammates are significantly more important than his 11 opponents, is the day I'll stop using SOS.

There are some problems with predicting SOS, but it's very important. SOS plays a much bigger role in the final fantasy standings than most fantasy players realize IMO.

That isn't what you're weighing though. The issue you are really discussing is whether his 10 teamates are more important than how his 11 opponents did LAST YEAR.When Doug checked the numbers, this year's SOS calculated using last season's results doesn't have a correlation to how teams do this year.

If you could tell us now what a team's 2006 SOS is using actual 2006 results, that would be worth including in your predictions as a significant factor.

We're not in disagreement here. If you could tell us now how a player's supporting cast will be using actual 2006 results, that would be worth including in your predictions as a significant factor.If you can predict SOS accurately, it's very important. Whether or not you can do that is another story. Lots of fantasy players aren't familiar with defenses, so they're going to rely on old (and bad) data. That's fine. But if you know a lot about defense, that's a useful tool that you can't ignore.

I suppose that's the question then. How well can you predict how a defense will do next year?

Yeah, that's the big question. I don't think I'm as good at it as I was in year's past, simply because I watched a lot less games this year. But guys like Rudnicki and Henry know what they're talking about when it comes to defense.Pretty soon I'll come out with (at least) three articles focusing on SOS. I'll be able to expand quite a bit on my ideas then.

I think a statement that most people would agree on is this:

If you have a QB that averages 10 FP/G, and the league average QB scores 15 FP/G, and he plays a D that allows 20 FP/G to a QB, he's just as good a start as a QB that scores 20 FP/G but is playing a D that allows 10 FP/G. I don't think many would disagree on that (assuming things like playing styles of the QB and D are similar, etc.)

The question then is how much do you weight the D for predictions, since we don't know which Ds will allow 10 and which Ds will allow 20. (Of course, we also don't know which QBs will score 10 and which will score 20).

Let's say you project QB A to score 20 FP/G and he's got the hardest schedule ever (average opp allows 10 FP/G to QBs). QB B is the reverse, with you projecting 10 FP/G (before looking at anyone's schedule) and a D that allows 20 FP/G.

If you believe your ability to project Ds and QBs are equal, you should project them both at 15 FP/G. If you believe you're 4X as good at projecting QBs, then you should project QB A at 18 FP/G and QB B at 12 FP/G.

 

[The Jerk]

I don't think it would change my projections much, but I do think playoff schedule plays a big role in who I draft. If a team has 3 pansies in the fantasy playoffs, that will get me to chose that guy over others. (I make the assumption in any league that I have enough capability to make the playoffs, so I worry about how I do in the playoffs more than how I do in the regular season.) Nothing worse than having your to QBs as Vick @ TB and McNair @ Pitt in the playoffs.

I wholeheartedly agree. Specifically, I expect to make the playoffs. I always gear my team to the 4th quarter of the season. I will often use a favorable Week 14-16 schedule for deciding between players in a similar tier. I have probably missed the playoffs once or twice by a game because I didn't emphasize the regular season. On the other hand, I've made the playoffs 7 times (out of 12) in my two leagues over the past six seasons, and I've won the title 6 of the 7. It's all about the postseason, baby.Using Clayton Gray's Ultimate SoS can tell you in a hurry which teams have favorable matchups in Weeks 14-16. I specially mark players who have 2 or 3 favorable and 0 unfavorable matchups and bump them to the top of their tier or perhaps into the next tier up (depending on the tier set). Of course, beware the fact that the SoS as of preseason will not match the SoS come December. It can be fairly dynamic, but it's the best draft-time indicator you can get.

 

[Moonlight]

Strength of schedule is usually life and death in the playoffs. There are exceptions. Its real disheartening to see your RB going against the Pitt run D and your opponent's stud RB going against the Rams or Saints. You are at a disadvantage to begin with. The best teams usually are in the playoffs and your margin of error is thinner.