Colbert...Falling Like a Brick Down My Rankings (1 Viewer)

[sdsjr3]

So then BnB, my assumption is that you feel like Gardner is someone to try and acquire ASAP? I've been thinking this myself, but the Colbert factor really muddies the water a good bit. Gardner really does seem to be a better fit given that he's the bigger more physical WR.

 

[Bri]

I don't think it's wise to get involved in this WR mess. That's how I feel about the WW and Carolina WRs. You might be right it's Gardner but what if it's Proehl? what if it's Colbert? They seem to have Michael Jordan and a supporting cast around him.

 

[sdsjr3]

I don't think it's wise to get involved in this WR mess. That's how I feel about the WW and Carolina WRs. You might be right it's Gardner but what if it's Proehl? what if it's Colbert? They seem to have Michael Jordan and a supporting cast around him.

IIRC, Proehl was only a big factor when Weinke came in...correct? Before that he hasn't done much to warrent any attention. Of course I didn't take the time to look this up, just going by what I remember so my apologies if I'm off base.

 

[BassNBrew]

So then BnB, my assumption is that you feel like Gardner is someone to try and acquire ASAP? I've been thinking this myself, but the Colbert factor really muddies the water a good bit. Gardner really does seem to be a better fit given that he's the bigger more physical WR.

That leaves 1100 between Colbert, Gardner, Carter, and Proehl. Worst case, Proehl and Carter get 400. That leaves 700 to be split between Colbert and Gardner. Even if you think my projection for Smith is high and knock it down to 1000 yards, that's still only 1100 yards on the table between the two of them.

The answer for most of my leagues is neither, as I only see 700 yards on the table be dividing between the two of them. My initial contention was that Colbert wouldn't get 70%+ of those yards. More on this when I address your next post.

 

[BassNBrew]

I don't think it's wise to get involved in this WR mess. That's how I feel about the WW and Carolina WRs. You might be right it's Gardner but what if it's Proehl? what if it's Colbert? They seem to have Michael Jordan and a supporting cast around him.

IIRC, Proehl was only a big factor when Weinke came in...correct? Before that he hasn't done much to warrent any attention. Of course I didn't take the time to look this up, just going by what I remember so my apologies if I'm off base.

Panther YTD TargetsSteve Smith 13 6 15 4 12 9 . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Ricky Proehl 2 3 4 . 3 9 . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Keary Colbert 3 7 4 6 2 3 . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Rod Gardner . 1 . . 3 5 . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Those numbers would have me concerned if I were a Colbert owner and not real excited if I were a Gardner owner.

 

[BassNBrew]

Updating the homer insight at the 3/4's pole...

My projection for Delhomme 3600-26-16, which is on the high side of consensus expectations.

On pace for 3460-24-17. Games remaining against the entire division and Dallas should bump the yards back up towards 3600.

My projection for Smith 106-1400-9.

Tracking at 109-1635-13. Obviously I was a little low, but Smith has been trending down so I expect this projection to look a little better in 4 weeks.

I'm allowing 600 rec yd to the RBs and 500 to the TEs.

RBs pacing for 696, TEs pacing for 392. Pretty close and about dead on for total of the two positions.

That leaves 1100 between Colbert, Gardner, Carter, and Proehl. Worst case, Proehl and Carter get 400.

These four WRs are on pace for 809 yards. Proehl and Carter pacing at 363.

I don't see Colbert getting 70% of that.

Colbert is on pace for 335 yards. I didn't see Colbert getting 70% of the 700 available yards and he's tracking at below 50% of those yards.

Keary Colbert Car 0 0 .0 8 2 .5 red zone numbers from last year which ranked him around #60 among all WRs. Yup...8 in 16 games. By the way, Peppers had 2 red zone targets which should tell you something. Mangum had 10. Separation...size...I don't know the reason, just the result.

Colbert/GardnerProehl redzone looks 6/2/5. Yup...8 in 16 games is once again Colbert's red zone look pace.

While it was only a pre-season game, both Carter and Gardner made TD catches that I haven't seen Colbert make.

YTD TDs: Colbert 2, Gardner 1. I was wrong about Gardner stealing the looks, but correct about the TDs not being there.Looks like my biggest whiff to date still was on the distribution of the WR yards. Smith is eating into both Colbert and Gardner's numbers far more then I expected. Bottom line remains the same: Exempting any injuries changing the distributions, I expect my overall premise to remain intact...even if I am a homer. Colbert is now the 80th ranked WR behind studs like Wes Welker, Az-Hakim, Dwight, Hackett, and Roydell Williams. On the plus side, he is just beating out Frisman Jackson and Courtney Roby.

 

[BassNBrew]

FYI...Carter was getting a lot of playing time this weekend and may be on the verge of surplanting Colbert. Colbert was the cause of an INT this week as I recall and had the dropsies again.For those in homerun leagues (distance TDs) playing into week 17, Carter may be someone to take a look at. For those in playoff leagues, I would compare his potential to Stokely during the Raven super bowl year.

 

[3C's]

From the blogger

 

[BoltBacker]

This was a good call B&B.I was high on Colbert going into last summer but cooled on him when they signed Gardner(really thought he'd play much better there than he did). After reading what you had posted Colbert completely dropped off my board. Good posting.

 

[BassNBrew]

This was a good call B&B.

I was high on Colbert going into last summer but cooled on him when they signed Gardner(really thought he'd play much better there than he did). After reading what you had posted Colbert completely dropped off my board. Good posting.

Thanks...Carter has been targetted 3 times today and has 2 catches for 50 and a touchdown.

 

[Marc Levin]

This was a good call B&B.

I was high on Colbert going into last summer but cooled on him when they signed Gardner(really thought he'd play much better there than he did). After reading what you had posted Colbert completely dropped off my board. Good posting.

Thanks...Carter has been targetted 3 times today and has 2 catches for 50 and a touchdown.

I am very impressed with Carter. The guy is really tfall -and he seems to be pretty fast.If I had to compare what I perceive to be his athletic strengths based on the limited amount I've seen him the last two weeks, I think it'd be Eddie McCaffrey

 

[BassNBrew]

With the year in the books let's look at the tape...

My projection for Delhomme 3600-26-16, which is on the high side of consensus expectations.3421-24-16. Within 5% of the yardage figure, nailed the INTs, was high on the TDs by 2. Personally I think I made a solid call. Dodds had 3456-24-16 and 25-73-1 rushing v. an actual total of 24-31-1.

My projection for Smith 106-1400-9.

103-1563-12. Obviously my numbers were light, but light years ahead of the 77-1030-8 FBG projections.

I'm allowing 600 rec yd to the RBs and 500 to the TEs.

RBs posted 655 and the TEs 357. Very respectable.

That leaves 1100 between Colbert, Gardner, Carter, and Proehl. Worst case, Proehl and Carter get 400.

These four WRs had 910 yards.

I don't see Colbert getting 70% of that.

Colbert had 282 yards. I didn't see Colbert getting 70% of the available yards. He ended up with 31% of the non-Smith WR yards.

Keary Colbert Car 0 0 .0 8 2 .5 red zone numbers from last year which ranked him around #60 among all WRs. Yup...8 in 16 games. By the way, Peppers had 2 red zone targets which should tell you something. Mangum had 10. Separation...size...I don't know the reason, just the result.

Colbert/Gardner/Proehl redzone looks 9/7/2. Yup...9 in 16 games as expected.

While it was only a pre-season game, both Carter and Gardner made TD catches that I haven't seen Colbert make.

YTD TDs: Colbert 2, Gardner 1, Carter 1, Proehl 4. I was wrong about Gardner (it was actually Proehl) stealing the looks, but correct about the TDs not being there.Bottom line: Colbert finished #92 in WR scoring. He was fourth on the team in receiving numbers behind Smith, Proehl, and Foster. Once playoff time arrived, Colbert was the 4th Carolina WR behind Smith, Carter, and Proehl. Colbert was the bust that I predicted and then some.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'm not even going to try and respond to that - excellent post, Bob - I concede the debate, if one existed.

Marc, you dumped me like Rudnicki gets dumped at a cornhole.

 

[Mr. Vegas]

Alright,you were right last year. Last year.

This is not 2005,what will they do this year?

That is the question?

 

[BassNBrew]

maybe i missed it, but i didn't see anywhere where bnb qualified his support of gardner... colbert's lack of separation was alluded to (more will be said about this later)... but whether gardner is skilled at this is left unsaid... i would lean to think that it is not his strong suit, or it would have been noted, but we don't have that counterbalanced perspective, so we can't say for sure until this is addressed.as to the homer reference... i didn't know bnb was a panthers homer... i do think there is something to this... like i said, there is some merit in the position that those who follow team most closely would be expected to know the most about them. if you think about this kind of obvious point, it would be strange if it weren't true, when put like that.but i am not sure that is the case here. bnb isn't (to my knowledge) relaying info about the depth chart... no links to headlines from local papers saying that colbert is plummetting down the depth chart, per the coaches. he was stating an opinion about how he sees a currently indeterminate situation resolving. while he is certainly in no worse a position to state such an opinion vis-a-vis "outsiders", for reasons cited above, he may not be any better... while i think it is good to know what teams others follow closely, the bottom line is that arguments have to stand on their own merit. what we are really talking about here is scouting sense... not homerism. my aunt might live in SF & seen them play for years... again, i am not disputing bnb's scouting sense (it isn't even relevant for the immediate point)... just be aware if a statement is made whether it is a public record type statement (on aug 15, the CAR bugle reported that HC john fox has installed garner at WR2, & dropped colbert to 4-5) where a homer might see things ahead of national media... the one scouting eye-type critique bnb levelled at colbert was that he didn't get separation. fair enough. failure to separate can be a death blow to an NFL WR...

Do I have great scounting sense or what....Actually it's the "or what". Watching the Carolina pre-season games pretty much told the story of what was on the horizon. I just may have been one of a select few that watched almost every Panther pre-season snap. Hopefully I can expand on this next year and the community as a whole can be more in tune to what's occuring on the field.

 

[BassNBrew]

Alright,you were right last year. Last year.

This is not 2005,what will they do this year?

That is the question?

That's what WE need to figure out how to replicate.

 

[Mr. Vegas]

Alright,you were right last year. Last year.

This is not 2005,what will they do this year?

That is the question?

That's what WE need to figure out how to replicate.

So 1 and done. Not bad Mr.Bettis go out on top.