Over the last few years, Cinci was a place where both CJ and Housh put up WR1 numbers (PPR). With Housh gone, there would appear to be a huge opportunity for the new #2 receiver...and when Cinci signed Coles in the off-season, I thought he would see a bump in value. While I've never followed Coles that closely, I've always had the impression that he was a decent receiver (nice fade route) who was somewhat hampered by playing with the Jets (read: Chad Pennington). That said, all of the pre-season buzz has been about Henry which leads me to ask if anyone familiar with the situation can explain what has happened to Coles and why the drop off? Is Henry expected to see more targets or does he just seem to have the better chance of scoring a TD (as indicated by all of the pre-season TD's that Henry has scored). Between CJ, Coles, and Henry, what can we expect in terms of reception distribution?
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Coles &/vs. Henry (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Big Worm
- Start date
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Catches:Ocho 100Coles 80Henry 55
millertyme1
Footballguy
Coles has very quickly become the Julius Jones of the WR position. No one seems to want to own him.
Had they thought Henry would looked the way he does, very doubtful they would have signed him because they don't need a slot receiver. I think Coles is one and done in Cincy. I think the staff really likes Andre Caldwell a lot. If anything, the year with Coles in the fold gives him [Caldwell] an extra year to develop.
I think the folks expecting Housh #'s are in for a rude awakening. I'm expecting 60 720 5 TD [which IMO are #'s for a fantasy reserve WR]. Better QB only he's not the first or second best WR on his team anymore. I expect no uptick in production and see greater likelihood of a downtick.
I think Ocho's in for a monster year. Henry should catch 7+ TD.
Had they thought Henry would looked the way he does, very doubtful they would have signed him because they don't need a slot receiver. I think Coles is one and done in Cincy. I think the staff really likes Andre Caldwell a lot. If anything, the year with Coles in the fold gives him [Caldwell] an extra year to develop.
I think the folks expecting Housh #'s are in for a rude awakening. I'm expecting 60 720 5 TD [which IMO are #'s for a fantasy reserve WR]. Better QB only he's not the first or second best WR on his team anymore. I expect no uptick in production and see greater likelihood of a downtick.
I think Ocho's in for a monster year. Henry should catch 7+ TD.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Having said that,TDs:Ocho 11Coles 6Henry 6
dschaff
Footballguy
I think you have it right here. Henry is a big target who has great body conrol and hands. He is a good jumpball guy on deep passes and around the goalline. I think Henry and Coles will have similar catch numbers with more touchdowns and yards going to Henry. Still I don't think either is a real starter both are better seen as fantasy backups at this apoint especially with concerns about wether palmer is going to get time to throw.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
Coles lost a some of his speed, so he wasn't hampered by Chad's lack of arm strength. If anything, I think he benefited from it with all of the underneath catches. He's a tough SOB, but the injuries have been piling up. He's a dependable receiver that will catch most of the underneath route passes. I'll guess 65-800-5.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
I am really liking Palmer as a value pick this year - 3 solid WRs, lousy RB and defense (playing behind a lot) - if his crappy OL doesnt get him killed Paler could be putting up 2005-6 numbers for a late rd pick!
I also like Coles especially at his ADP - hes tough and will put up better numbers than Henry this year
I also like Coles especially at his ADP - hes tough and will put up better numbers than Henry this year
Gopher State
Footballguy
As stated above Coles will be one and out in Cinn
I see Coles putting up 55-550-4 tds
I see Henry putting up 70-900-9 tds
I see Coles putting up 55-550-4 tds
I see Henry putting up 70-900-9 tds
3C's
Footballguy
I have Coles and JJ on a dynasty team. And Benson.
gorf
Footballguy
you guys seem to be forgetting about caldwell. seems to me he ends up with the third most receptions on this team. i kind of feel like coles is the odd man out here. or *maybe* he starts the season getting a reasonable number of catches, but then when they realize they can't keep henry off the field, coles gets pushed aside and is primarily used in 4 WR sets.
Soaring Eagle
Footballguy
palmer's career year was 2005 - 3836 yds 32tds
that year
chad johnson 97 1432 9
Houshmanzedah 78 956 7
henry 31 422 6
so the 3 receivers combined for about 2800 of his 3800 yards and 22 of his 32 passing tds
if palmer was to match a season like that again (which would be his ceiling in my opinion) i think you are looking at splits like this
Chad Ochocinco 85 1200 8
Coles 75 900 6
Henry 50 750 7
that year
chad johnson 97 1432 9
Houshmanzedah 78 956 7
henry 31 422 6
so the 3 receivers combined for about 2800 of his 3800 yards and 22 of his 32 passing tds
if palmer was to match a season like that again (which would be his ceiling in my opinion) i think you are looking at splits like this
Chad Ochocinco 85 1200 8
Coles 75 900 6
Henry 50 750 7
baconisgood
Footballguy
Hahahahaha. good one.
theplayer11
Footballguy
I think many of you are overvaluing what Chad will do this year...I'm not feeling it
JuSt CuZ
Footballguy
I'm glad they play the games, and it don't matter what u see! lolGO COLES!
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
With all of their TE problems, and bad running game/defense, I expect Cincy to use 3- and 4-WR sets more than most teams in the league this year. Three WR sets should be their base offense.
Maven
Footballguy
Give some reasons why you dont think chad can have a chad type of year with a healthy carson?
notdarkyet
Footballguy
Thuglife will be the #2 at some point this season. He finally seems to legitimately have his head on his shoulders, and is playing like a #1. The thing I really like about Henry is that he not only has chemistry with Palmer, but JTO as well. Something that I dont think you can ignore since their oline is suspect and there is a decent chance that Palmer will go down again.
whodeywhodey
Footballguy
Well one reason might be because he doesn't have healthy carson.
The Jerk
Footballguy
Interesting decision between the two. I always struggle in choosing my backup WRs. The choice as I see it is between going after proven veteran types who likely have little upside (think Derrick Mason as a prototype, or Toomer for the last few years when he was with the Giants) but also have less risk and going after hit-or-miss players that could strike it big or never make much noise at all. To have them on the same team makes the decision even more intriguing. Given the specifics, I'd rather have Henry than Coles for both draft value and potential.
Of course, the decision on Henry and Coles or any high-upside potential WR vs. a low-upside/low-risk veteran WR always depends on large part of what you already have on your roster. If you already have a question mark or two in your starting lineup (say, Devin Hester as a #3 WR), then perhaps you want to go with a Coles or Mason as a safety net. On the other hand, you might want to take two or three long-shots hoping to strike it big on a Hester or Henry, knowing some serviceable players will always be on the waiver wire as a worst case replacement especially if you're willing to play matchups.
I realize I haven't made the decision any easier, but like I said in the first line of my post, it's a struggle for me.
Of course, the decision on Henry and Coles or any high-upside potential WR vs. a low-upside/low-risk veteran WR always depends on large part of what you already have on your roster. If you already have a question mark or two in your starting lineup (say, Devin Hester as a #3 WR), then perhaps you want to go with a Coles or Mason as a safety net. On the other hand, you might want to take two or three long-shots hoping to strike it big on a Hester or Henry, knowing some serviceable players will always be on the waiver wire as a worst case replacement especially if you're willing to play matchups.
I realize I haven't made the decision any easier, but like I said in the first line of my post, it's a struggle for me.
Kirby
Footballguy
He doesn't tweet anymore.
maxwell1295
Footballguy
It may sound crazy, but I think Henry will end up with 12+ TDs if he keeps his head screwed on right. Dude is an absolute beast in the red zone. He was a RZ beast at #3 with both Housh and Ocho there. As a solid #2 in Cincy he's going to light it up this year.....steal of the draft if Palmer stays healthy.
The Jerk
Footballguy
I'm not basing my expectations on the preseason, other than to say Henry has developed a rapport with JT O'Sullivan, who is likely to see time at QB behind that OL. Of course, I'm not projecting double-digit TDs. I see Henry as the WR equivalent to RB vultures. I see a player who knows he is absolutely on his last chance and may finally be acquiring discipline and professionalism. I see a head coach who knows he also is out of chances. I see a QB who wants to prove he belongs in the discussion of the best half dozen in the game. Basically, the Bengals may be finally ready to play like a professional football team instead of a bunch of guys in a Saturday morning suburban beer league. The intriguing thing about Henry is that you can get him as a #4 or possibly #5 WR with the potential to be a low #2 WR in TD heavy leagues, or a #3 WR in other leagues. It's not going to cost you a 4th or 5th round pick. As usual, the hype in the forum is beyond realistic, but that's to be expected.
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baconisgood
Footballguy
No, because he has 19 TDs in 107 career receptions. Thats with all his trouble staying on the field and never really building a good rapport with his QBs. His collage TD numbers were insane as well.
karmarooster
Footballguy
hmm... yeah 10+ TDs would be just CRAZY right??Henry 2006 - 13 games played, 4 games started, 36 receptions, 600 yards, 9 TDs
Banger
Footballguy
I was just going to post the same exact thing. He's got a more prominent role on the team now than he did then and I think he's improved as WR (his coach and QB have said as much). I've posted on the subject in other threads and I think Coles is the #2 because he's a pro, he knows where to be and is a nice Housh-lite WR but Henry is a much more talented WR with a much bigger upside. It's just a question of doing the little things on every play, not just the ones where your number is called, for him to take the next step. Chad Johnson is a very good wr but has never been a great redzone threat. He's only hit 10 tds once and 9 a couple times and Coles has never gotten more than 7. In TD heavy leagues I think Henry is gold because he's going to score at least 8 tds if he and Palmer stay on the field. He might not get solid consistent yardage but he will have a bunch of long TDs and he is red zone option #1 on this offense.
maxwell1295
Footballguy
If he can repeat 2006 (with more reps as a starter), I see no reason why he shouldn't have at least 10+ TDs. It all hinges on Palmer and how quickly he finds his groove...
The Jerk
Footballguy
The 2006 Bengals were coming off a playoff appearance and had a top 10 or so offensive line. Neither is true this season.Other negatives for Henry:History of attitude issues/suspensionsProjected to be the #3 or possibly #4 WR by his coachPalmer history of injury and questionable line does nothing to encourage thoughts he'll be healthier this seasonPositives for Henry:0.4 TDs per game in career despite being at best a #3 WR0.55 TDs per game with Palmer as his QB in 2005-2006supposedly has matured and put behavior issues behind himI see 8 TDs +/- 2 if Henry is able to stay on the field all season long. Worth a flier in my opinion.maxwell1295 said:
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Is Palmer Healthy? Hes missed a lot of pre-season time... Carson just has never been the same since that injury. His throw has been "off." Jaws pointed this out a year or so ago and it doesn't look like it has come back.Maven said:
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
This Henry hype is insane. Some pertinent points.
1. Its the Bengals. Horrible organization, mess on offense and defense right now, and not only is the QB dinged up and missing most of the preseason, but the Oline is highly sketchy too.
2. Henry's best season so far is 36/605/9. Yes high TD numbers, but he's never caught more than 36 passes in four NFL seasons.
3. Coles is a savvy veteran. Those guys don't just go away easily. He's going to get his share of the pie and be very difficult to displace as the starter.
4. Their RB situation is a joke. Some might say that's good for WRs, I think it will lead to a lot of 3 and outs.
Ocho: 72/1050/6
Coles: 55/650/3
Henry: 40/600/6
1. Its the Bengals. Horrible organization, mess on offense and defense right now, and not only is the QB dinged up and missing most of the preseason, but the Oline is highly sketchy too.
2. Henry's best season so far is 36/605/9. Yes high TD numbers, but he's never caught more than 36 passes in four NFL seasons.
3. Coles is a savvy veteran. Those guys don't just go away easily. He's going to get his share of the pie and be very difficult to displace as the starter.
4. Their RB situation is a joke. Some might say that's good for WRs, I think it will lead to a lot of 3 and outs.
Ocho: 72/1050/6
Coles: 55/650/3
Henry: 40/600/6
Banger
Footballguy
There's certainly risk that he doesn't pan out but he's being drafted as a WR4/5 so if he doesn't pan out over the 1st few games you can dump him for the WW flavor of the day. There's no denying his talent and if Carson can stay in the lineup he's a heck of a QB. My bet is that Carson is a very good QB that can and will pass the ball because they will be behind and throwing in most games. If he fails or gets hurt no one on the Cincy offense will be worth squat but if he works out Henry could be a very nice, very cheap option. With respect to Coles, Housh was also a decent WR, better than Coles IMO and Henry scored 6 and 9 TDs in partial seasons when he wasn't as a good a WR, had all kinds of personal problems and didn't have as prominent a role. Stats are nice and can be indicative of players floors/ceilings but it's totally meaningless to me to use his stat line of 36/605/9 as being indicative of some kind of ceiling. You have to look at talent, maturation, role in the offense, the comments of teammates and coaches and sometimes look beyond the stats. With that stat line I see a guy who could be incredibly explosive if given the opportunity. Whether he'll be given that opportunity is the bet but it's a very cheap bet for a potentially high upside.
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karmarooster
Footballguy
before you say "insane" maybe you should check your facts.1. yes the bengals are a mess, but they were a mess in 2006 - albeit with a superior o-line. but they aren't a mess on defense... they were solidly average last year, and improved with tank johnson, ray malualuga, and roy williams. (not that this helps henry's case, just wanted to point out you are wrong)2. henry's best season was also his 2nd in the league. he's better now than he was then. you can write this down... Henry will have more than 36 receptions this year.3. coles is a veteran, but he's not as good as Housh (who was around in 06 and that didn't stop henry). coles also gets dinged up and hasn't been really healthy in a few years. 4. back RBs = fewer pass attempts?
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I hear what you are saying there Banger. Henry has a chance to far outperform his ADP this year. My point is that's going to be very difficult to do on a team as bad as the Bengals especially as the #3 WR. Even the best teams of recent memory have had a hard time making 3 WRs startable. Henry's current ADP seems about right for his risk/reward, but I'd prefer to take my chances on other guys around that ADP. Namely, Josh Morgan or Domenik Hixon. Both of them are currently running as the #1 starter on their respective teams. A much clearer path to success this year.
That Little Voice
Footballguy
I will just say we wont have to wait long to get a taste. I expect Sunday vs Denver to be a fantasy bonanza in both directions.
I think both of these crappy teams will score some big points this weekend, particularly if Orton is semi-healthy.
I think both of these crappy teams will score some big points this weekend, particularly if Orton is semi-healthy.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Henry is going to be a headache to start... 1 week he'll light it up for 5 Recs / 130 yds / 2 TDs... then the next he'll give ya a 0
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
This. But it will probably be 3/4 weeks between his good weeks on average.
karmarooster
Footballguy
-Coles has often been dinged up, despite the fact that he has not missed games. these are not mutually exclusive... he can play through pain, but has not been as effective in the last few years as he was earlier in his career. in any case, he's not as good as Housh.-for the RB comment, look at the chiefs last year. look at the cards. they couldn't run the ball very well either because of week o-line or a suspect defense, but were still able to put up huge passing numbers overall.
Henry: 60+, 900+, 9+
Judge Smails
Footballguy
As my WR3 I'd take that. Face it, many WR's give you 50 yards and no TD's each week - that's why they are WR3's. Very few have the potential to put up multiple TD/Moss like #'s in a week. This kid does. I don't own him, but if I did I'd start him every week and take the risk. He may win you some games. He will catch TD's. If his catch count can go up, which I think it will, he'll put up WR2 numbers all year.
Banger
Footballguy
I guess it's just draft styles but I tend to get a good base at a position and shoot for the stars with some of my later round picks looking for a couple home runs. If I had riskier early round WR's I might go for the "safer" late round picks to balance the risk. I don't know I often target bad teams for QB/WR's because they are bad will have to throw early and often...see Houston, KC, etc. teams I have been riding for a couple years. Cincy's success rides on Palmers arm and health and if he weren't back I wouldn't be in this thread and likely wouldn't own a Bengal but I think people forget how good a QB Palmer is. He was a mark it down, lock it up top 5 QB, now after being injured a year his ranking has dropped but the guy still knows how to play QB and he can still throw the ball and they will have no choice but to throw the ball....a lot. The points and yards that they'll get on offense likely won't come from the RB position and they don't have any TE's to speak of so their 3 WRs should get a lionshare of the offenses yardage, especially in garbage time. The WR on Cincy isn't like being the #3 wr on Denver, NYJ, Giants, Jax, etc..
To me, Morgan and Hixon are nice vanilla wr's and they'll likely put up decent stat lines but Hixon may end up losing his job to Nicks mid way through the year. Neither guy IMO has any chance of helping you win your league whereas for the same pick you can get someone can score 10 tds and can be a stud if things break right. Sometimes I go with the talent even if the immediate opportunity isn't there because talent often has a way of working itself out. Who knows, maybe he becomes unstoppable like he's looked all preseason with Chad doubled all the time and plays himself onto the field. Much crazier things have happened and if he flames out no big deal you pick up Schillens (or some other WW flavor) off the WW in week 3.
JuSt CuZ
Footballguy
I love how people get caught up in hype!
I'm guessin most the people on here prolly have Henry on there fantasy team!
Yes I see potential, but r we not over doing it a bit by saying he is gonna be a stud...and yes 10 TD's r stud like!
You act like he is the best on the team, he's not even starting.....FACT!
I'll bet anyone, and I mean anyone, he don't score 10 td's....and ur out there if you think just because Palmer called him Baby Moss, that he's gonna act like it!
Plus how often has a non starter even got 10 td's......RARE, BLOODY RARE, I MEAN IT WOULD STILL BE MOO'ING!
I'm guessin most the people on here prolly have Henry on there fantasy team!
Yes I see potential, but r we not over doing it a bit by saying he is gonna be a stud...and yes 10 TD's r stud like!
You act like he is the best on the team, he's not even starting.....FACT!
I'll bet anyone, and I mean anyone, he don't score 10 td's....and ur out there if you think just because Palmer called him Baby Moss, that he's gonna act like it!
Plus how often has a non starter even got 10 td's......RARE, BLOODY RARE, I MEAN IT WOULD STILL BE MOO'ING!
Tenacious
Footballguy
Not with this year's offensive line.
Banger
Footballguy
I don't like Henry because I own him, I own him because I like him. how many guys have his talent and aren't starting? How many guys have scored 9 tds in 36 catches as a #3 wr in 3/4 of a season? It's not like hasn't put up great TD numbers in a little role (more limited than he'll have this season) in the past. The guy is a great deep threat, he's extemely fast, he'll likely be single up all the time with Chad on the opposite side, he's got a very good QB, he has nice hands, he's a GREAT red zone target, his team will be passing often and he's very cheap.
John Rambo
Footballguy
Perfect example of a guy who plays fantasy and doesn't watch or understand football. If you're going for witty at least try and make sense.JuSt CuZ said:
maxwell1295
Footballguy
I own him in 1 of 4 leagues (5th drafts tonite). The only reason I don't have in more leagues was because somebody else beat me to him. A couple of times, he went higher than I had him rated. Another time, I had a more pressing need elsewhere (IDP). I'm going to bump him up a few ticks for tonight and hope I can grab him at a ADP I'm happy with.
