So you don't think PED's had anything to do with how he looked before the weight loss. Guy went from superman to jj walker.
I never even considered that - but I don't think that's the case. More likely
@JFS171 is on target with the injuries that prevented him from working out. He's long been known as a gym rat, which has been cited as one of the reasons Harbaugh liked him. Having had shoulder surgery myself, (albeit not as a professional athlete, or anything even vaguely resembling one) I can say it's very difficult to lift weights in the 8-12 weeks following while your body recovers from the procedure. Even with a pro athlete and professional trainers, surgery is surgery and I doubt Kaep was lifting - and I doubt he's anywhere near full strength now.
1) York and Balke are really, really petty... they don't like Kaepernick as a person, they wanted Gabbert to be the guy, and they're still Chip's bosses at the end of the day
I agree - can't stand York and Baalke has run this organization into the ground. I'm no fan of either. I'm not sure what the direct bearing is other than $. York has consistently been all about money in his actions. And with the contract looming over Kaep, they could not play him and risk owing him (another) 17 mil.
2) Kaepernick was bad in 2015 - no doubt, but the surrounding cast was also pretty awful, the game plans were awful, the coaching was awful. Train wreck all around... there's only a handful of QBs in the league that can produce in a situation like that. Also, Kaepernick deserves some of the blame as he played terribly, but it's not like the situation was perfect and he sucked.
Agree with this as well, but even at Kaepernick's peak, he lacked touch. He had a cannon for an arm and could sling the deep ball, but lacked touch to make the swing passes, throw a screen, execute a 5-10 yard slant, or float a ball over a pack to hit an open receiver. Time and time again, he'd pooch those throws. It's why Niner fans were so baffled by the playcalling on the final drive in the Superbowl - after being unstoppable on the ground the entire drive, they opt to throw 4 straight end zone corner fade routes from the 5? It was unbelievable to anyone who'd watched the NIners with Kaep at QB since he cannot throw that pass with touch to save his life.
It's not like Kaepernick was a world-beater who suddenly got bad in 2015. He had great moments, but was never that great of a QB. He played in an offense that Harbaugh drew up to his strengths, which included deception plays to fool the defenses like the QB option and use his legs. He could hit some deep passes (though he often lacked touch there too), and he had a knack for the big play with his legs. Usually that came at the expense of being able to make reads beyond his second option, and his mental clock was practically nonexistent. When you watch Roethlisburger or Brady in the pocket, they have a 6th sense about the pressure coming - Kaeperinick was either running for his life or a sitting duck on designed passing plays.
Thinking back, it seems more likely to me that Kaepernick is a guy who came out gangbusters and became exposed the more he played. A cursory look at his stats between 2012-2014 would seem to support that...
2012 he attempted 218 passes, completing 136 (62.4%), throwing 10 TDs to 3 Ints
2013 he attempted 416 passes, completing 243 (58.4%), throwing 21 TDs to 8 Ints.
2014 he attempted 478 passes, completing 289 (60.5%) with 19 TDs and 10 Ints
While his % increased slightly from 2013-2014, so did his interceptions with a reduction in TDs. While stats aren't the entire story, this certainly appears that the more the game is put on Kaepernick's arm, the worse he performed, even in his peak seasons. I didn't incliude 2015 there as he was hurt/only started 9 games, but he continued to regress prior to injury - while the completion % remained constant (59%), his TD:Int continued to regress to 5:4
Another pattern that emerges is his QB rating:
2012 - 98.3
2013 - 91.6
2014 - 86.4
2015 (injury shortened) - 78.5
3) Multiple offseason surgeries likely had as much to do with the weigh loss and loss of strength as the diet change did. Again, these guys have access to world class nutritionists... I'm sure he's not the first vegetarian to play in the NFL. By some of the beat writer tweets, he's got a work ethic too - reportedly the first guy in the weight room every day, which tells me he's trying to get back to where he was. Given the petty and disparaging steps York and Balke have taken in the past with Harbaugh and Kaepernick, it's easy to think that the "well he's vegan so he's too skinny now" narrative was just that - some petty narrative to take a shot at a guy they don't like.
I agree this might be the case. Made him an easy target for that narrative, though I don't recall hearing this from the team - this was more external commentary. But it's possible Baalke "leaked" it. Wouldn't be the 1st time.
4) The Christian Ponder report, if you believe Kawikami, was almost a direct shot at Kaepernick trying to force him to sign the restructured deal.
I tend to believe Kawakami - he's been very reliable. Certainly moreso than anyone from the 49ers when it comes to information.
5) The restructured deal itself doesn't tell me whether they do or don't expect him to get hurt or fail or anything else. When SF started their coaching search, it was rumored they wanted someone to fix Kaepernick. People thought Kelly and Kaepernick were a match made in heaven. Now that the FO has disparaged him a bit and news leaks have suggested he's a skinny waif who sucks at practice and whose teammates hate him, we seem to forget the Kaepernick + Kelly system = fantasy goodness equation. As to why they restructured - it makes good business sense. I don't remember the exact figures, but I think Kaepernick's old deal guaranteed his 2017 salary if he sustained an injury this year -- $17-20MM if I remember correctly. They don't want him around - he's Harbaugh's guy, remember. Kaepernick probably hates these two as well -- so giving him his freedom next year and some more money now is a good deal for him. Getting out from under next year's guaranteed $$ in case he gets hurt is a good deal for the team. Deals get done when it makes sense for both sides.
I think it's likely a mix of both. There's no way in hell Kaep was ever going to take a snap if getting hurt meant paying him 17 million in 2017. This was discussed prior to the season - and that Ponder would have leap-frogged him as the QB2 in the event of a Garbbart injury because of that reason and that reason only. And now it's come out that this new contract likely allows for separation in the offseason, so you're correct about that for sure. They didn't want him to get hurt, and they want to get rid of him. No argument from me there.
What's bizarre to me is that they didn't take any of the trade offers that were apparently on the table for him. Denver had a legitimate offer in place. And getting something is better than getting nothing.
I don't know what will happen - I do know Kaepernick was a good fantasy QB back in the day, and he was practically free in my leagues, so I took a shot. Totally plausible he gets hurt, totally plausible he still sucks, but also plausible Kelly and Kaepernick are a whole lot of fun to watch, even if the rest of the team really sucks. Remember, Nick Foles went nuts in Kelly's system. Nick. F'ing. Foles. He made Sanchize fantasy relevant. Kaepernick is the closest thing to Mariotta that Kelly has had in the NFL, and I'm very, very curious to see what he does with him.
Nick Foles had a better OL, better receivers and wasn't in a totally dysfunctional environment. Nick Foles was also able to get to the line quickly, where that has been Kaepernick's Achilles heel since his 1st game.
I'm not seeing quite as much upside as you are here. If you're desperate for a QB, maybe you add him. They should be playing from behind a lot, which in theory makes for valuable QB stat-padding. But as referenced above, the more Kaepernick throws, the more exposed he tends to be, and the more mistakes he seems to make.
I wish you luck with the pickup - hopefully whatever happens it will be entertaining to watch. It likely can't be a lot worse than what we've seen to date.