College RB Workload Related to NFL Success (1 Viewer)

[ConstruxBoy]

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Intro:

When considering the future NFL success of a college running back, there is usually a consideration of his workload in college. Sometimes there are thoughts that too much work will lead to injuries in the NFL. Other times it could be that too little work means a back is not ready for a full time NFL workload. Or maybe a large workload shows that the back can handle a large workload in the NFL? I decided to see if I could find any correlation between college workload and NFL success in terms of fantasy points or games missed.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Good work CB!

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Thanks! I wish there were more conclusive evidence either way, but it was nice to do the study and answer the question.

 

[gman8343]

Good read, thanks for the info.

 

[puckalicious]

I wonder if a followup study would show some useful information regarding player injury probability? Tweak the dataset to include the complete college career, and count "missed games" only if it was due to injury and not due to sitting behind the incumbent starter.

I always hear opinions about RB's having "too much mileage" and a related injury risk. Might the data show any correlation between college workload and NFL longevity?

 

[JKL]

Excellent Work

Did you happen to run the correlation between Games Played in the Final Season in College, and the various performance factors? This would show if backs who did have injuries that caused miss time in their final season tended to carry that risk to the pros.

Here are my thoughts on workload in the NFL.

Your work fits my thoughts on the topic, which is basically that very recent workload matters in predicting injury, but past historic workload matters little. By the time a back reaches the NFL, most of the carries he had in his college career are likely irrelevant, besides maybe the last bowl game and the end of the regular season. This is not to say that workload in college doesn't have any bearing on injury rates, its just that we are viewing the "survivors", those that made it through healthy (enough) to be drafted in the top 3 rounds.

Also, the level of competition varies so much in college compared to the NFL, where from week to week you are playing highly skilled athletes on defense, even if it is a below average NFL defense. 33.5 rushes for Tomlinson at TCU, where he is getting through the line cleanly, may be less harmful than 22 at an SEC school.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I wonder if a followup study would show some useful information regarding player injury probability? Tweak the dataset to include the complete college career, and count "missed games" only if it was due to injury and not due to sitting behind the incumbent starter.I always hear opinions about RB's having "too much mileage" and a related injury risk. Might the data show any correlation between college workload and NFL longevity?

Possibly. I do think that college career would likely be more accurate than last collegiate season. The issue is finding out whether games were missed due to injury or coaches decision in past seasons. I think you could track that going forward though.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Excellent Work

Did you happen to run the correlation between Games Played in the Final Season in College, and the various performance factors? This would show if backs who did have injuries that caused miss time in their final season tended to carry that risk to the pros.

Here are my thoughts on workload in the NFL.

Your work fits my thoughts on the topic, which is basically that very recent workload matters in predicting injury, but past historic workload matters little. By the time a back reaches the NFL, most of the carries he had in his college career are likely irrelevant, besides maybe the last bowl game and the end of the regular season. This is not to say that workload in college doesn't have any bearing on injury rates, its just that we are viewing the "survivors", those that made it through healthy (enough) to be drafted in the top 3 rounds.

Also, the level of competition varies so much in college compared to the NFL, where from week to week you are playing highly skilled athletes on defense, even if it is a below average NFL defense. 33.5 rushes for Tomlinson at TCU, where he is getting through the line cleanly, may be less harmful than 22 at an SEC school.

Great article there JKL! Thanks! And I do agree that level of comp is important.