eighsse2
Footballguy
Interesting. I guess I don't see how an expected difference in future value can have no effect on the current value of something, all things else the same. Totally respect that though, I just disagree.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
WR Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, HOU (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
I guess younger is better always and by definition it does increase the value to some degree. What I really mean is it is so insignificant to me that it doesn't move the needle until they get on the verge of expiration. However, I do realize that it matters to others so I will use it to my advantage when it arises and applies. But I have seen people stay away from quality players that will help their team significantly because they are "29 years old". I think the 5-yr window evaluation leading to missing out on quality older players is a big mistake made by many dynasty players.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Makes sense. You consider it, but far less than the average owner does. And so as you say, it makes perfect sense to take advantage of that difference in making deals.
So your argument is McLaurins age is the reason for that and not the stellar QB’ing of guys like Sam Howell, Carson Palmer, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick Kyle Allen, Dwayne Haskins or Alex Smith?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
No, my argument isn't that his to date performance is because of his age, but that the window isn't open as long as it is for a WR entering the league at 21. McLaurin will be 29 this season. 30 comes fast, just as 65 will be for me in June. I still think I'm 29.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Of course not, but age does have some meaning in dynasty. Less so for WRs than RBs, but it does matter. I'm just saying that when I draft a WR I prefer a 21 year old if possible. I just wonder if anyone was bothered by him turning 25 so early in his career. Najee Harris will be 26 next month and he hasn't been in the league long.
Did Dell look good because he was older? What other WRs came into the league older and looked good at first then fizzled?
eighsse2
Footballguy
Agreed, I didn't realize he was that old and it definitely makes a difference to me. The age is a factor, though it has nothing to do with how good he can be and everything to with how long he can be good.
Two cars that seem identical, one is a 2020 with 40,000 miles for $12,000, the other a 2015 (same generation/style/features) with 100,000 miles for $10,000, you know which one you're buying between the two.
So, I guess, I don't know how much I would say it's "concerning" as if there is something wrong with him. It's just surprising to realize how old he is, and a significant negative, in my opinion, versus the average WR going into second year.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Yes, a lot of dynasty folks got him cheap.....or free.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
So when you get something for peanuts that tastes like a ribeye, just eat until it's gone.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Why not test the waters?
What if the Texans draft another WR with a slightly better pedigree?
I would see what Dell is worth in Dynasty, think his style might lend to more injuries
But I love the guy and was excited for Houston when they got him.
He's not a No 1, he's a 2nd or even 3rd WR that can tear the roof off the back end of a secondary
What if the Texans draft another WR with a slightly better pedigree?
I would see what Dell is worth in Dynasty, think his style might lend to more injuries
But I love the guy and was excited for Houston when they got him.
He's not a No 1, he's a 2nd or even 3rd WR that can tear the roof off the back end of a secondary
pinkstapler
Footballguy
As much as I wanna huff that Tweet from Mueller like Charlie from IASIP with a can of spray paint; what makes the RTP for Dell more like Waddle than Pollard outside the fact they play different positions. I thought Pollard had the same exact injury, broken fibula. Considering Tanks game strengths, if feels like it would comp well to Pollard; reliance on acceleration, cutting, fast twitch motions, top end/breakaway speed.
I don't follow Mueller and not sure if this is what he means but they may have had similar injuries but they had different surgeries. I can't say this for sure but I think Tank and Waddle had similar surgeries. Again, not sure if this is what he is referring to.
Pollard actually just had the tightrope procedure done, which is far less invasive and did not require screws. That he never looked as explosive is highly concerning in light of that but that's another subject.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
That makes a lot of sense, much appreciated insight. And good as a Dell owner to hear. I'll continue huffing then
karl.Racki
Footballguy
I wouldn't touch Tank Dell with a 6' pole next year.. His numbers about to go way down.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Why? 30yr old Diggs doesn't do what he does. His role is his role.
Less targets?
Soulfly3
Footballguy
that's certainly possible... but with nico and diggs out there, dell having absolute scrubs trying to defend him could lead to fewer targets for much more payoff
karl.Racki
Footballguy
Well, Diggs is going to be their #1, he is will get 80-100 catches next season, Collins is going to be their #2, and is going to be next in line for targets. They also added a decent back so I am sure they will run more.
Diggs is going to hurt someone, sucks it's Dell.
Major
Footballguy
I love a good hot take but Dell will be fine as long as he stays healthy.
karl.Racki
Footballguy
So you don';t think with adding a #1 and RB, his targets won't be effected?
I have Tank and I am 100% concerned about this.
Major
Footballguy
Guess you're backtracking a bit but I'd touch him with a 6' pole. I doubt his numbers will go WAY down as you said.
Zow
Footballguy
Yeah I just traded for Dell in dynasty and while I don't love this transaction, I'm not panicking.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I keep / kept getting offered Dell + for Drake London in one of my leagues. and while I was never really tempted, I'm glad I never spent tons of time trying to figure out how to balance out that deal because I don't think I'd be loving any version of that deal right now.. Dell's great but he's 24.5 years old, 165 pounds and coming off a broken leg. Quite possible that double digit opportunities is something that the front office and coaching staff think they need to keep to a minimum to keep him on the field. For the Texans, having him available for 100 percent of the plays is better than having 25% of the offense flow through him for 8 games and having him on the trainer's table for the rest of the season.
karl.Racki
Footballguy
Back tracking? If I get an offer for him, he is out.. Dude is the #3 right now and at that I am not sure he is going to be the same after his injury last season. He relies on speed as he weighs 165 pounds. I am sure his numbers are going to drop.
I agree with what someone else said in another thread in that it will be whack a mole for fantasy. These Hou WRs will be a much better play for best ball. Houston’s not the type of offense to force it to one guy, Diggs diva-ness notwithstanding. Stroud would often find the open guy and didn’t heavily favor one guy over another last year week to week. They tried force feeding one guy a little with Nico after Tank went down and struggled which is why they really wanted to get another weapon this offseason.
Noah Brown and Robert Woods combined for 140 targets last year, I see those #’s taking a much bigger hit than Tank or Nico’s targets (which will obviously still be negatively impacted.) But agree Tank is blocked from being the WR2 pts most were hoping for. Probably be some massive games interspersed with a bunch of duds. At least for probably the next 2 seasons, which is an eternity in fantasy football.
Noah Brown and Robert Woods combined for 140 targets last year, I see those #’s taking a much bigger hit than Tank or Nico’s targets (which will obviously still be negatively impacted.) But agree Tank is blocked from being the WR2 pts most were hoping for. Probably be some massive games interspersed with a bunch of duds. At least for probably the next 2 seasons, which is an eternity in fantasy football.
not sure about Woods but feel like a lot of Brown's targets were when he was filling in due to injuries
Evenly distributed, 27 of 55 for Brown were after Tank went out, 5 games each sample. Brown had his two huge games with Tank still healthy. Brown did have one big target game of 11 with Tank out but offset by two games of only 2 targets. Woods averaged fewer targets with Tank out but that may have been because of the overall downtick in offense.
Your namesake Metchie saw the biggest increase with Tank out but it was like going from less than 2 targets a game to 3-ish and still doing nothing with them.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
As a Bills fan (hometown) after my Brownies, I can honestly say I saw decline in Diggs this season. Maybe he was dogging it a bit, but I'm not sure... He's 30. He has two VERY good weapons at WR who will get the ball. He's not going to be a 100+ reception guy, imo w the other 2 WRs there (barring injuries).
I just am not worried about Dell in this situation. He has his set of skills, twitch and speed that the others don't. They all have a "role". I just expect that the quality of what Dell will receive v #3 corners will offset any drop in targets,
I just am not worried about Dell in this situation. He has his set of skills, twitch and speed that the others don't. They all have a "role". I just expect that the quality of what Dell will receive v #3 corners will offset any drop in targets,
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Good points but let's try and play this out...
Diggs is going to be the highest paid skill player on the roster
127-103-108-107...his catch totals the last 4 seasons
He is 6th overall in total catches on the active players list in the NFL
He is Top 40 overall in NFL History with over 800 catches, he could enter the Top 25 in 2024.
I don't worry about Tank Dell but I do think Nico Collins will see a slight downtick in targets and catches, it has to come form somewhere.
I cannot see 3 WRs all having 1,000+ yd seasons.
Dell will not see volume but he will be wide open when they throw it to him, Dell in space is scary
3/100/TD...not every week but some weeks that will be the Tank Dell box score
1/68/TD, you're gonna see that. People will be screaming for him to get more targets but I don't see Dell getting more than maybe 4-5 per game.
To overlook Diggs and the targets he will consume in this offense is naive, and I'm not calling you naive at all.
I'm just pointing out that while Diggs might not be what he once was, he will still gobble up targets in this offense.
Jayded
Footballguy
I think Nico takes a bigger hit than Dell, personally. Mixon will steal some catches, but I think people forget that Singletary was solid last year and we ran the ball a lot. So Mixon will “steal catches” but those might have just been runs last year.
Tank is the big play weapon on the Texans. That isn’t going to change. He might find himself with more 4-40 with a missed 50 yard TD games. But happy path might be he has more of those 30-50 yard TDs because the defense is putting their 3rd/4th best cover guy on him.
Tank is the big play weapon on the Texans. That isn’t going to change. He might find himself with more 4-40 with a missed 50 yard TD games. But happy path might be he has more of those 30-50 yard TDs because the defense is putting their 3rd/4th best cover guy on him.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I've started to come around to that same feeling and if Nico and his people start to figure that out...
Nico will be on Year 4 of his rookie deal and just because the Texans traded for Diggs first, doesn't mean they won't field offers for Nico right now.
I will not be shocked if Collins is in another uniform by opening day, Houston might be able to flip Nico for a 2nd/3rd rd pick, replace the one they lost trading for Diggs.
I could be totally wrong of course but it seems like they have a lot of options to play with right now heading into the Draft.
-Nico has a market value right now of approx $22.9M...
Would someone trade for him and put a 4 yr/$80M deal in front of him if he accepted their trade? Seems high to me but the WR market is bananas these days.
If I could trade a 2nd or 3rd for Nico and get him to agree to something more like $15M per year on a 3/4 yr deal, i might pull the trigger but $20M+ per year?
I would have to see some more consistency and that might be hard with Diggs lined up across from him...which is why Collins' agent might want to explore the market right now.
Last edited:
Jayded
Footballguy
I wouldn’t go that far. With them altering Diggs’ deal, they were clearing room for Nico’s extension.
I think the Diggs deal was cost (pick) + opportunity (pro bowler on disgruntled discount) + contract timing. My hunch is this year shows if Nico is a WR1 or 2.
Also, last year all of our WRs but Nico got hurt. With our window open now, we needed depth.
GregR
Footballguy
I was kind of disappointed we didn't get to see more of what Noah Brown could do.
He had the two big games with Nico out IIRC. But then after that either he was injured, or CJ was out with his concussion, to where we didn't really see a situation he could show if he could continue at that level or if they were flukes. I thought he was going to supplant Woods after those two games, but never really had a chance after them.
He had the two big games with Nico out IIRC. But then after that either he was injured, or CJ was out with his concussion, to where we didn't really see a situation he could show if he could continue at that level or if they were flukes. I thought he was going to supplant Woods after those two games, but never really had a chance after them.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I had Nico in several leagues and I thought he missed a game or two as well.
Major
Footballguy
Nico isn't going anywhere. Him and Stroud are locked in.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Nico missed two full games and the majority of a 3rd game last year, MOP is correct.
