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Colts vs. Seattle (1 Viewer)

switz

Footballguy
With the Colts starting to get their running game established this past game, and Seattle being very weak against the run, anyone think the Colts decide to run the ball significantly more this week than they have their first three games?

I'm thinking of starting both Addai and Brown this week, as there should be carries to go around. Anyone else thinking this as well?

 
With Freeney out - I expect the Colts to try to pass first, run second to protect their defense. Colts can't rely on the D to hold Seattle to 10 points (with Wallace or a banged-up Hasselbeck) without their 2 best defensive players - so the Colts offense has to put points on the point in the meantime.

 
A lot of times in the past the Colts don't seem to play well against bad teams. This may be one of those weeks.

I'm driving from Minnesota to Indy (11 hrs) to go to the game :thumbdown:

 
Seattle's trips to the EST in the past 2 years.

2007

Lost in Pittsburgh = 0-21

Lost in Cleveland = 30-33

Won in Philly = 28-24

Lost in Carolina = 10-13

Lost in Atlanta = 41-44

2008

Lost in Buffalo = 10-34

Lost in NY(G) = 6-44

Lost in TB = 10-20

Lost in Miami = 19-21

Seattle is a horrible road team. They will lose and lose big imo.

Starting Donald Brown with confidence.

 
Seattle has given up 418 rushing yards on 75 attempts (5.6 ypc). Two of those attempts by Frank Gore went for 79 and 80 yards. If you factor the rushing defense without those two carries you get 259 rushing yards on 73 attempts (3.55 ypc).

How relevant is this? They obviously shouldn't be ignored, but from a statistics standpoint you're talking about a small sample size so those two long runs have a huge impact on the ypc (+2.05 ypc).

Seattle kept Steven Jackson and Matt Forte in check well. I guess you have to ask yourself which of the following three is the outlier in the data.

WK 1: Jackson 16-77

WK 2: Gore 16-207

WK 3: Forte 21-66

Personally, I'm not worried about the Seattle run defense. They've gotten much bigger up front this season and DT Brandon Mebane is on track to be a pro-bowler. He's in the unknown category for the most part, but I think that will change by the end of the season. Further, Mebane missed the 49er game. Seriously, ask around in Seattle homer circles and I think you'll find that many believe that Mebane is currently Seattle's biggest impact player on defense.

 
I believe the more interesting aspect to this game will be the absence of DE Dwight Freeney. How does that affect the Colt defense? I know they don't mind giving up chunks of rushing yards just praying for that moment where they get you in a passing situation to unleash Mathis and Freeney, but how does this change with Freeney on the sidelines?

 
Another aspect to this game to dwell on: Seattle will be without CB Marcus Trufant and CB Josh Wilson. CB Ken Lucas is battling injuries and CB Kelly Jennings will no doubt be over matched. Throw in the Colts usage of the 3 WR set and god knows who will be playing defense in the slot for the Seahawks. I'm not arguing that the Colts will come out throwing like mad, just another aspect of the game to consider.

 
Another aspect to this game to dwell on: Seattle will be without CB Marcus Trufant and CB Josh Wilson. CB Ken Lucas is battling injuries and CB Kelly Jennings will no doubt be over matched. Throw in the Colts usage of the 3 WR set and god knows who will be playing defense in the slot for the Seahawks. I'm not arguing that the Colts will come out throwing like mad, just another aspect of the game to consider.
Wow, I wasn't aware of the Seahawks secondary issues. That is a really good point to consider, thanks.In that case, if the Colts get a big lead, I can see Brown getting a LOT of work this week.
 
Seattle has given up 418 rushing yards on 75 attempts (5.6 ypc). Two of those attempts by Frank Gore went for 79 and 80 yards. If you factor the rushing defense without those two carries you get 259 rushing yards on 73 attempts (3.55 ypc).How relevant is this? They obviously shouldn't be ignored, but from a statistics standpoint you're talking about a small sample size so those two long runs have a huge impact on the ypc (+2.05 ypc).Seattle kept Steven Jackson and Matt Forte in check well. I guess you have to ask yourself which of the following three is the outlier in the data.WK 1: Jackson 16-77WK 2: Gore 16-207WK 3: Forte 21-66Personally, I'm not worried about the Seattle run defense. They've gotten much bigger up front this season and DT Brandon Mebane is on track to be a pro-bowler. He's in the unknown category for the most part, but I think that will change by the end of the season. Further, Mebane missed the 49er game. Seriously, ask around in Seattle homer circles and I think you'll find that many believe that Mebane is currently Seattle's biggest impact player on defense.
I don't think you can remove the long runs ....but I do agree that the Seahawks are not as bad against the run as Gore made them look. I see the biggest problem as the decimated secondary matching up with the Indy WRs. Seattle is a bad team right now. This should be a blowout.To answer Switz--I'm starting both Brown/Addai.
 
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Seattle is not as weak against the run as everyone is making them out to be. The game Gore had was based on two longs runs. Not saying you can take them out, but Mebane was not playing in that game. Lofa started, but was pulled after the first series. Even before and after those two runs, they were keeping Gore in check as well. Jackson and Forte both had rough days against the Hawks front seven.

 
Another aspect to this game to dwell on: Seattle will be without CB Marcus Trufant and CB Josh Wilson. CB Ken Lucas is battling injuries and CB Kelly Jennings will no doubt be over matched. Throw in the Colts usage of the 3 WR set and god knows who will be playing defense in the slot for the Seahawks. I'm not arguing that the Colts will come out throwing like mad, just another aspect of the game to consider.
Wow, I wasn't aware of the Seahawks secondary issues. That is a really good point to consider, thanks.In that case, if the Colts get a big lead, I can see Brown getting a LOT of work this week.
Agree 100%.
 
Seattle's trips to the EST in the past 2 years.2007Lost in Pittsburgh = 0-21Lost in Cleveland = 30-33Won in Philly = 28-24Lost in Carolina = 10-13Lost in Atlanta = 41-442008Lost in Buffalo = 10-34Lost in NY(G) = 6-44Lost in TB = 10-20Lost in Miami = 19-21Seattle is a horrible road team. They will lose and lose big imo.Starting Donald Brown with confidence.
I wouldn't go so far as to say "horrible". I think it's safe to say that they can't win on the road on the EC. But win or lose, it doesn't really have much effect on FF.Also, I would count out the 2008 season where they pretty much had a 4th and 5th string WR corp (among other injuries across the board). Looking at 2007 you can see that outside of the Pitt blowout, they lost close games on the EC.I see this game as being a shootout and very high scoring (similar to the 2007 season). Wallace is more than capable of moving the chains and they have a great TE to compliment their "sure" handed WRs (well, mostly sure handed if you count Burleson :rolleyes: )
 
Seattle is not as weak against the run as everyone is making them out to be. The game Gore had was based on two longs runs. Not saying you can take them out, but Mebane was not playing in that game. Lofa started, but was pulled after the first series. Even before and after those two runs, they were keeping Gore in check as well. Jackson and Forte both had rough days against the Hawks front seven.
I don't think it's that people are saying they are weak but it looks like they might be prone to giving up the long run, and with the Colts threat of the pass (on an undermanned secondary) there seems to be a good chance Brown breaks one of, especially after a reception.I understand sometimes the Colts play down to teams, as if Peyton wants to keep it interesting before pulling it out in the end but with Seneca at the helm, I'd be surprised if Brown didn't see at least a slight uptick in carries this week.
 
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I think it was Bill Walsh who said something along the lines of you pass to get the lead and than you run to win the game. Whoever said it that's what I expect the Colts to do. Peyton will take advantage of the Seahawks secondary early and than I think the Colts will salt the game away with the run. If it works out that way it makes this game hard to figure for fantasy purposes. On paper I think it might be the best matchup the Colts see all year in terms of the passing game but I worry about them getting such a lead they turn to the run. I'm still going to start Peyton but this is making me unsure about Garcon. For the Seahawks it should be a great matchup for Julius Jones but I do have concerns that if they fall into a hole quickly they will abandon the running game which would lead to more playing time for Forsett.

 
I'm starting Carlson but not expecting much. Indy gives up such few passing TD's (or catches to TE's for that matter) that I doubt Seneca is going to join this exclusive group.

 
From the FBG passing matchups:

Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense vs Seattle Seahawks Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Peyton Manning made it all look so easy on Sunday night football, hitting 24/37 for 379 yards, four TDs and only one interception on the way to a 31-10 victory over the Cardinals. The Cardinals had zero sacks and only one hit on Manning all night (the Colts are currently tied for third in the NFL with only two sacks allowed through three games). Reggie Wayne (9 targets for 7/126/1) was the top receiver this week, while Pierre Garcon (5 for 3/64/1) and Dallas Clark (7/62/1) got theirs, too. 'Our motto is: Take what they give us,' Wayne said after the game. 'If they give us a big-play opportunity, we try to take advantage of it'. Donald Brown had a very long gainer (2 for 1/72/0) and Joeseph Addai caught a TD (4 targets for 3/8/1). It was a display of absolute dominance by the Colts.

The Seahawks field the league's seventh-ranked pass defense this year, averaging 175.3 net passing yards allowed per game, with three passing TDs given up to date and one interception to their credit. They are currently tied for fourth in the NFL with nine sacks, though - the big guys up front can generate some pressure, just ask Jay Cutler (sacked twice and hit four times last week en route to 21/27 for 233 yards, three TDs and one interception). It's the DBs who are the weak link so far this year - they aren't generating enough turnovers and were exposed by Cutler last week.

The Seahawks have a good enough defense to pose a challenge for Manning, but we're still optimistic that he'll rise to the challenge, just like he did last week.

Weather: A mild autumn day is forecast for Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday - the high should be around 63 F at game time (45 F later during the day for a low). However, there is a 30% chance for rain - if the weather looks nasty near game time, the retractable roof will be closed. Weather conditions shouldn't play a huge role in this contest.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 4 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.
Huh. I guess I disagree. I hope so, but I have my doubts that the Seattle pass defense counts as a "tough" matchup.
 
I think it was Bill Walsh who said something along the lines of you pass to get the lead and than you run to win the game. Whoever said it that's what I expect the Colts to do. Peyton will take advantage of the Seahawks secondary early and than I think the Colts will salt the game away with the run. If it works out that way it makes this game hard to figure for fantasy purposes. On paper I think it might be the best matchup the Colts see all year in terms of the passing game but I worry about them getting such a lead they turn to the run. I'm still going to start Peyton but this is making me unsure about Garcon. For the Seahawks it should be a great matchup for Julius Jones but I do have concerns that if they fall into a hole quickly they will abandon the running game which would lead to more playing time for Forsett.
you are overthinking here . . .if they run off to a big lead, then it's probably the pass that got the lead anyway . . .I don't see how you wouldnt start Manning, Clark, Wayne and Garcon . . .
 
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From the FBG passing matchups:

Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense vs Seattle Seahawks Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Peyton Manning made it all look so easy on Sunday night football, hitting 24/37 for 379 yards, four TDs and only one interception on the way to a 31-10 victory over the Cardinals. The Cardinals had zero sacks and only one hit on Manning all night (the Colts are currently tied for third in the NFL with only two sacks allowed through three games). Reggie Wayne (9 targets for 7/126/1) was the top receiver this week, while Pierre Garcon (5 for 3/64/1) and Dallas Clark (7/62/1) got theirs, too. 'Our motto is: Take what they give us,' Wayne said after the game. 'If they give us a big-play opportunity, we try to take advantage of it'. Donald Brown had a very long gainer (2 for 1/72/0) and Joeseph Addai caught a TD (4 targets for 3/8/1). It was a display of absolute dominance by the Colts.

The Seahawks field the league's seventh-ranked pass defense this year, averaging 175.3 net passing yards allowed per game, with three passing TDs given up to date and one interception to their credit. They are currently tied for fourth in the NFL with nine sacks, though - the big guys up front can generate some pressure, just ask Jay Cutler (sacked twice and hit four times last week en route to 21/27 for 233 yards, three TDs and one interception). It's the DBs who are the weak link so far this year - they aren't generating enough turnovers and were exposed by Cutler last week.

The Seahawks have a good enough defense to pose a challenge for Manning, but we're still optimistic that he'll rise to the challenge, just like he did last week.

Weather: A mild autumn day is forecast for Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday - the high should be around 63 F at game time (45 F later during the day for a low). However, there is a 30% chance for rain - if the weather looks nasty near game time, the retractable roof will be closed. Weather conditions shouldn't play a huge role in this contest.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 4 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.
Huh. I guess I disagree. I hope so, but I have my doubts that the Seattle pass defense counts as a "tough" matchup.
Yeah, I think that is just a measure of looking at stats and not the actual games. If Wilson plays and Lofa play, it will be a little better, but still have a hard time seeing Seattle's passing defense as a tough matchup. I think people will be surprised though, at Seattle's run defense. As long as guys like Curry and Grant stay in their lanes, it could be a long day for Indy on the ground.
 
From the FBG passing matchups:

Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense vs Seattle Seahawks Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Peyton Manning made it all look so easy on Sunday night football, hitting 24/37 for 379 yards, four TDs and only one interception on the way to a 31-10 victory over the Cardinals. The Cardinals had zero sacks and only one hit on Manning all night (the Colts are currently tied for third in the NFL with only two sacks allowed through three games). Reggie Wayne (9 targets for 7/126/1) was the top receiver this week, while Pierre Garcon (5 for 3/64/1) and Dallas Clark (7/62/1) got theirs, too. 'Our motto is: Take what they give us,' Wayne said after the game. 'If they give us a big-play opportunity, we try to take advantage of it'. Donald Brown had a very long gainer (2 for 1/72/0) and Joeseph Addai caught a TD (4 targets for 3/8/1). It was a display of absolute dominance by the Colts.

The Seahawks field the league's seventh-ranked pass defense this year, averaging 175.3 net passing yards allowed per game, with three passing TDs given up to date and one interception to their credit. They are currently tied for fourth in the NFL with nine sacks, though - the big guys up front can generate some pressure, just ask Jay Cutler (sacked twice and hit four times last week en route to 21/27 for 233 yards, three TDs and one interception). It's the DBs who are the weak link so far this year - they aren't generating enough turnovers and were exposed by Cutler last week.

The Seahawks have a good enough defense to pose a challenge for Manning, but we're still optimistic that he'll rise to the challenge, just like he did last week.

Weather: A mild autumn day is forecast for Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday - the high should be around 63 F at game time (45 F later during the day for a low). However, there is a 30% chance for rain - if the weather looks nasty near game time, the retractable roof will be closed. Weather conditions shouldn't play a huge role in this contest.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 4 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.
Huh. I guess I disagree. I hope so, but I have my doubts that the Seattle pass defense counts as a "tough" matchup.
Yeah, I think that is just a measure of looking at stats and not the actual games. If Wilson plays and Lofa play, it will be a little better, but still have a hard time seeing Seattle's passing defense as a tough matchup. I think people will be surprised though, at Seattle's run defense. As long as guys like Curry and Grant stay in their lanes, it could be a long day for Indy on the ground.
you're kidding right?? they are not dependent on their running game to win . . .
 
I'm starting Carlson but not expecting much. Indy gives up such few passing TD's (or catches to TE's for that matter) that I doubt Seneca is going to join this exclusive group.
Carlson might be going for me this week, as well, but I'm more worried about the possibility of Walter Jones sitting for this game. If he does, would that mean that Carlson would be kept in to block more? He did have 10 targets last week, but this could be totally different.
 
I'm starting Carlson but not expecting much. Indy gives up such few passing TD's (or catches to TE's for that matter) that I doubt Seneca is going to join this exclusive group.
Carlson might be going for me this week, as well, but I'm more worried about the possibility of Walter Jones sitting for this game. If he does, would that mean that Carlson would be kept in to block more? He did have 10 targets last week, but this could be totally different.
Hopefully with Freeney being out that might offset it a bit. I have no other alternative so I'll take about 40-50 yds from Carlson.
 
From the FBG passing matchups:

Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense vs Seattle Seahawks Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Peyton Manning made it all look so easy on Sunday night football, hitting 24/37 for 379 yards, four TDs and only one interception on the way to a 31-10 victory over the Cardinals. The Cardinals had zero sacks and only one hit on Manning all night (the Colts are currently tied for third in the NFL with only two sacks allowed through three games). Reggie Wayne (9 targets for 7/126/1) was the top receiver this week, while Pierre Garcon (5 for 3/64/1) and Dallas Clark (7/62/1) got theirs, too. 'Our motto is: Take what they give us,' Wayne said after the game. 'If they give us a big-play opportunity, we try to take advantage of it'. Donald Brown had a very long gainer (2 for 1/72/0) and Joeseph Addai caught a TD (4 targets for 3/8/1). It was a display of absolute dominance by the Colts.

The Seahawks field the league's seventh-ranked pass defense this year, averaging 175.3 net passing yards allowed per game, with three passing TDs given up to date and one interception to their credit. They are currently tied for fourth in the NFL with nine sacks, though - the big guys up front can generate some pressure, just ask Jay Cutler (sacked twice and hit four times last week en route to 21/27 for 233 yards, three TDs and one interception). It's the DBs who are the weak link so far this year - they aren't generating enough turnovers and were exposed by Cutler last week.

The Seahawks have a good enough defense to pose a challenge for Manning, but we're still optimistic that he'll rise to the challenge, just like he did last week.

Weather: A mild autumn day is forecast for Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday - the high should be around 63 F at game time (45 F later during the day for a low). However, there is a 30% chance for rain - if the weather looks nasty near game time, the retractable roof will be closed. Weather conditions shouldn't play a huge role in this contest.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 4 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.
Huh. I guess I disagree. I hope so, but I have my doubts that the Seattle pass defense counts as a "tough" matchup.
Yeah, I think that is just a measure of looking at stats and not the actual games. If Wilson plays and Lofa play, it will be a little better, but still have a hard time seeing Seattle's passing defense as a tough matchup. I think people will be surprised though, at Seattle's run defense. As long as guys like Curry and Grant stay in their lanes, it could be a long day for Indy on the ground.
you're kidding right?? they are not dependent on their running game to win . . .
I don't quite get what you are saying here. I am kidding that Seattle's passing defense is worse than the stats indicate? No, their pass defense is much worse than the stats indicate.

I am kidding that Seattle's rush defense is under-rated? No, Seattle's rush defense, especially with Mebane and Lofa in the game is actually very good, and except for two long runs by Gore, has really bottled RBs up.

I didn't say the Colts are dependent on the ground game, all I said is it could be a long day for the Colts on the ground. They definitely better off passing, considering how Seattle's pass D has played, and all the injuries. Granted, if Wilson and Lofa play, their pass defense will be helped out a little, but probably not enough to make this a "'tough matchup" like quoted above.

I think you need a lesson in reading comprehension.

 
I think it was Bill Walsh who said something along the lines of you pass to get the lead and than you run to win the game. Whoever said it that's what I expect the Colts to do. Peyton will take advantage of the Seahawks secondary early and than I think the Colts will salt the game away with the run. If it works out that way it makes this game hard to figure for fantasy purposes. On paper I think it might be the best matchup the Colts see all year in terms of the passing game but I worry about them getting such a lead they turn to the run. I'm still going to start Peyton but this is making me unsure about Garcon. For the Seahawks it should be a great matchup for Julius Jones but I do have concerns that if they fall into a hole quickly they will abandon the running game which would lead to more playing time for Forsett.
you are overthinking here . . .if they run off to a big lead, then it's probably the pass that got the lead anyway . . .I don't see how you wouldnt start Manning, Clark, Wayne and Garcon . . .
I may be be over thinking it. Friend of mine who got me into fantasy football in the early 90's tells me the same thing all the time but sometimes I am actually correct. No way would I bench Manning, Clark or Wayne but as impressive as Garcon has been he's not yet in the category of the studs you don't bench no matter what that always depends on your other options.
 
From the FBG passing matchups:

Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense vs Seattle Seahawks Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Peyton Manning made it all look so easy on Sunday night football, hitting 24/37 for 379 yards, four TDs and only one interception on the way to a 31-10 victory over the Cardinals. The Cardinals had zero sacks and only one hit on Manning all night (the Colts are currently tied for third in the NFL with only two sacks allowed through three games). Reggie Wayne (9 targets for 7/126/1) was the top receiver this week, while Pierre Garcon (5 for 3/64/1) and Dallas Clark (7/62/1) got theirs, too. 'Our motto is: Take what they give us,' Wayne said after the game. 'If they give us a big-play opportunity, we try to take advantage of it'. Donald Brown had a very long gainer (2 for 1/72/0) and Joeseph Addai caught a TD (4 targets for 3/8/1). It was a display of absolute dominance by the Colts.

The Seahawks field the league's seventh-ranked pass defense this year, averaging 175.3 net passing yards allowed per game, with three passing TDs given up to date and one interception to their credit. They are currently tied for fourth in the NFL with nine sacks, though - the big guys up front can generate some pressure, just ask Jay Cutler (sacked twice and hit four times last week en route to 21/27 for 233 yards, three TDs and one interception). It's the DBs who are the weak link so far this year - they aren't generating enough turnovers and were exposed by Cutler last week.

The Seahawks have a good enough defense to pose a challenge for Manning, but we're still optimistic that he'll rise to the challenge, just like he did last week.

Weather: A mild autumn day is forecast for Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday - the high should be around 63 F at game time (45 F later during the day for a low). However, there is a 30% chance for rain - if the weather looks nasty near game time, the retractable roof will be closed. Weather conditions shouldn't play a huge role in this contest.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 4 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.
Huh. I guess I disagree. I hope so, but I have my doubts that the Seattle pass defense counts as a "tough" matchup.
I'm with you. The Seattle pass defense ranking isn't as impressive when you consider they played STL and SF the first two weeks. They got lit up by Cutler last week and Manning will have his way with them.
 
With the Colts starting to get their running game established this past game, and Seattle being very weak against the run, anyone think the Colts decide to run the ball significantly more this week than they have their first three games?I'm thinking of starting both Addai and Brown this week, as there should be carries to go around. Anyone else thinking this as well?
I'm starting both Addai and Brown this week along with Coffee. My other RB's are DWill (bye), Bradshaw (dinged), and Thomas Jones (turd) so it's somewhat out of necessity, but I'm starting to warm to the idea. Here is a breakdown of Addai and Brown's combined scoring in standard, non-ppr formats so far this season:Week 1 = 16.6 pointsWeek 2 = 14.9 pointsWeek 3 = 24.3 points At first glance, pretty lousy numbers. However, Week 2 was that odd game @ Miami where Colts possessed the ball under 15 minutes and Addai and Brown combined for 10 rush attempts and 2 receptions. I seriously doubt that will happen this week so let's say about 15 points is their absolute floor. I thought both Addai and Brown looked pretty good last week and the Colts offense in general appears to be hitting its stride. On paper, the Colts should be playing with the lead for a good portion of the game so the opportunities should be there. And it's a small sample size, but Seattle's run D has played decent at home and had a clunker on the road. The combination of these factors leads me to believe that Addai and Brown should be able to repeat last week's performance with a possible upside of about 30 points. Most people who are considering starting both of them are probably doing so due to byes and/or injuries. I personally would be more than happy with 24.3 points again from these guys, especially considering the 9.6 I got from DWill and Thomas Jones last week cost me the game (I lost by .68 points :wall: ). I think starting both guys is fairly safe play (about 15 to 30 points) that won't win you any games, but it certainly won't lose you any either.
 
Monday night game followed by a short week, cross country, Prime Time game against a big time O. And then going to Tennessee next week. Do teams like the Colts have let down/"trap" games? Take the points.

ETA - Starting Addai

 
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I think JJ is going to have a heyday against the colts D, and thus keep Manning off the field, ala Miami.

Still won't be surprised if the Colts win.

 

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