Compared to other sports, is football the most random/unpredictable (1 Viewer)

[Shirtless]

I've been thinking about this for a few years now. Sure, every sport has its own amount of randomness, but it seems that football really takes the cake and victory/defeat is thus more dependent upon luck.

1) Conditions are not controlled. Every other major sport (NBA, MLB, NHL) has much more playing condition regularity, with the NBA having almost identical conditions no matter the location.

2) The schedule is the least uniform. In every other sport, each team plays more games and more other teams, with NBA and NHL teams playing every team at least once.

3) Playoffs are one and done. Every other sport has a playoff series.

4) Every single play is subject to a judgment call and human error. While every sport depends to some degree on the opinion of a ref/ump, in no other sport is that decision as frequent or critical as NFL refs determining the spot of a ball.

I understand that, due to the nature of this game, this is simply the way it is, and I'm cool with that. But sometimes I do wonder how different games or seasons can be due to pure luck, and if it happens more in football than other sports. Maybe this is why we like it so much?

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

I've been thinking about this for a few years now. Sure, every sport has its own amount of randomness, but it seems that football really takes the cake and victory/defeat is thus more dependent upon luck.1) Conditions are not controlled. Every other major sport (NBA, MLB, NHL) has much more playing condition regularity, with the NBA having almost identical conditions no matter the location.2) The schedule is the least uniform. In every other sport, each team plays more games and more other teams, with NBA and NHL teams playing every team at least once.3) Playoffs are one and done. Every other sport has a playoff series.4) Every single play is subject to a judgment call and human error. While every sport depends to some degree on the opinion of a ref/ump, in no other sport is that decision as frequent or critical as NFL refs determining the spot of a ball. I understand that, due to the nature of this game, this is simply the way it is, and I'm cool with that. But sometimes I do wonder how different games or seasons can be due to pure luck, and if it happens more in football than other sports. Maybe this is why we like it so much?

The one-and-done aspect is what makes it so unpredictable. if you can beat someone four times in a series, you're better than they are or it's so close it's a toss up. The only thing I can think of that would be more random is MMA, where one punch or move can derail anyone. Unless they're unevenly-matched, anyone can win and the fight can turn in seconds.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Baseball is probably more random in one game, but the MLB's does a good job of having so few teams make the playoffs.

Hidden in this is that I think people are away too results oriented in football. The tuck rule not being invented, better weather in NE, a single dropped pass, if those seemingly small things happen during their playoff runs, the Patriots are not considered dynasty. It doesn't effect how good those teams actually were.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

It makes it that much sillier when talking heads rack and stack NFL QBs based largely upon Super Bowl pelts.

 

[Reaper]

IMO, the one thing you missed that to me is the biggest is INJURIES.... With the size and speed of the players and the collisions.

No excuses cuz this happens in every game - But, lets just look at the Colst / Jets game..

Jets needed a miracle to win yesterday - They needed a power run game and to contain Manning - You lose your Power RB, Your #2 CB and the next CB is dinged and... Well..... That's all.

The Miracle isn't happening today...

There are a lot of teams in the NFL that CAN go far - but, health is a key ingredient.

And your whole season really can go down with 1 play - For the Jets again we point to 1999 or for the Pats last year. Jets were SB contenders and lose Vinny on the 1st series - Well, thanks for playing.

 

[kaa]

For a while there, it seemed like the NFL was the most predictable. Particularly in the 80s and 90s, it always seemed like the preseason favorite won it. For a long time, a dome team never won a super bowl, a #6 seed never won a super bowl, heck there was only one wild card that ever won a super bowl for a very long time (the Raiders).

Now, it does feel very random. You have 6 seeds winning it twice in the last few years. Wild cards win it a lot.

The changes to free agency that began in 1993 might have a lot to do with this. Before then, you pretty much saw a lot of teams hold onto their prime home grown talent for most of their careers. Ever since, its all become a bunch of interchangeable parts. The Dallas Cowboys dynasty in the 1990s arguably got short circuited by free agency.

To get a glimpse at how the NFL might have been different had the free agency rules never changed, you'd have to look at teams that built strongly through the draft and then got torn apart by free agency since then. Its arguable that the Patriots would have been a much more dominant franchise this decade had we played under the rules prior to 1993. In some ways its amazing that the Patriots dominated under this system to the extent they did.

 

[Da Guru]

1. PI calls are hurting the game, they are devastating. Not sure what to do about it but that Monday game Gruden said "Just chuck it deep and hope for a PI..that has been the best play of the night" The PI call can change the course of the game. The one against Minny last night was bad..there is no way that ball is catchable.

2. OT Football is the only sport that both teams do not have an equal chance to win. In BB and hockey you get 5 more minutes of play to decide the winner. MLB both teams get to bat until a winner is decided. In football you can lose in OT without ever having a chance to score.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

1. PI calls are hurting the game, they are devastating. Not sure what to do about it but that Monday game Gruden said "Just chuck it deep and hope for a PI..that has been the best play of the night" The PI call can change the course of the game. The one against Minny last night was bad..there is no way that ball is catchable.2. OT Football is the only sport that both teams do not have an equal chance to win. In BB and hockey you get 5 more minutes of play to decide the winner. MLB both teams get to bat until a winner is decided. In football you can lose in OT without ever having a chance to score.

They could always make PI a college-level penalty; 15 yards. But in that case a good strategy would be to just blanket the WR if you think he could catch a bomb. I don't think the team that wins the toss has a huge statistical advantage. I think it's like 52 percent or something. If they would make any change, maybe require a TD to be scored. But really, I don't see a huge problem with overtime. I wouldn't be upset if they changed it, either, but I don't think it contributes much to what's hurting the game like PI in your example.I'm actually glad the Saints won (good to see the city rally behind something positive and I like Brees) but the Vikings were jobbed pretty hard in overtime. The 4th down conversion wasn't a conversion, that PI was absurd and I'm not even convinced that last completion was a completion. maybe that last one was legit but it seemed like every call went the Saints' way. The last time I had that feeling in a game was the Seahawks/Steelers SB.

 

[Devine Intervention]

1) Every sport has speculation---Whats really a foul in basketball, or whats really a strike? Umpires makes calls so close that calling one ball a strike can make the difference in a whole series. Every sport has judgement calls.

2) One is done is the best thing about the playoffs. Its called being clutch when it counts. When it comes down to the final putt in a PGA championship you dont see Tiger getting 7 putts and and doing best out of seven with his competitor. Its an "all or nothing" mentality in the NFL, not a "we'll get them next time".

 

[Chase Stuart]

I've been thinking about this for a few years now. Sure, every sport has its own amount of randomness, but it seems that football really takes the cake and victory/defeat is thus more dependent upon luck.1) Conditions are not controlled. Every other major sport (NBA, MLB, NHL) has much more playing condition regularity, with the NBA having almost identical conditions no matter the location.2) The schedule is the least uniform. In every other sport, each team plays more games and more other teams, with NBA and NHL teams playing every team at least once.3) Playoffs are one and done. Every other sport has a playoff series.4) Every single play is subject to a judgment call and human error. While every sport depends to some degree on the opinion of a ref/ump, in no other sport is that decision as frequent or critical as NFL refs determining the spot of a ball. I understand that, due to the nature of this game, this is simply the way it is, and I'm cool with that. But sometimes I do wonder how different games or seasons can be due to pure luck, and if it happens more in football than other sports. Maybe this is why we like it so much?

1) Despite this, HFA in both the NFL and the NBA are almost identical. We remember certain games, but I think this effect is way overrated compared to other sports.2) The schedule (at least based on your argument above) isn't less uniform; playing more games doesn't make things less uniform. The Yankees would play the cellar dweller Devil Rays more times in a season than a single NFL team plays all year long; that doesn't make the schedule less uniform. Playing every team at least once when you have 80 games doesn't impact the SOS significantly.3) Yes, this is definitely a big part of it.4) Not sure I buy this, either. In basketball, every single shot is subject to "luck" just as much as every single play is subject to a judgment call and human error. In baseball, every single pitch is subject to luck, too; two centimeters can mean the difference between a home run and a pop fly, and no pitcher can lock in with that degree of accuracy from that far away.I do think won-loss record is football is more misleading than in any other sports, due to the small sample size. That tends to lead to some results that may appear random or unpredictable but actually are not.

 

[aerolaw]

I've been thinking about this for a few years now. Sure, every sport has its own amount of randomness, but it seems that football really takes the cake and victory/defeat is thus more dependent upon luck.1) Conditions are not controlled. Every other major sport (NBA, MLB, NHL) has much more playing condition regularity, with the NBA having almost identical conditions no matter the location.2) The schedule is the least uniform. In every other sport, each team plays more games and more other teams, with NBA and NHL teams playing every team at least once.3) Playoffs are one and done. Every other sport has a playoff series.4) Every single play is subject to a judgment call and human error. While every sport depends to some degree on the opinion of a ref/ump, in no other sport is that decision as frequent or critical as NFL refs determining the spot of a ball. I understand that, due to the nature of this game, this is simply the way it is, and I'm cool with that. But sometimes I do wonder how different games or seasons can be due to pure luck, and if it happens more in football than other sports. Maybe this is why we like it so much?

Yes, football is more random than baseball or basketball but i maintain that it is because of a very simple reason..more fundamental and basic than anything mentioned here...what is the 1 thing that football DOES NOT have in common with baseball and basketball, with regard to at least the physics of the sport? THE BALL IS NOT ROUND