Comparing the KC Offense Situation: Last Year v. This Year (1 Viewer)

[bocksheesh]

I'm having a difficult time understanding the rationale for the downgrades and/or skittishness about Larry Johnson this year in KC - with one caveat being the 400+ carries he had last season. That does worry me.

But I'm interested in getting a better understanding of why people think the KC situation is any worse for LJ than it was last year.

1. QB Situation - last year, Trent Green was out nearly the entire season. And LJ did fine. It's hard to invision the QB situation in 2007 being any different than last year.

2. OLine - there is NO question that the KC OLine has diminished appreciably with the departure of Roaf and Shields. But wasn't that the case last year as well? I know Roaf wasn't there, but was Shields? Regardless, despite a clearly lessened OLine, LJ was still a beast.

3. Wear & Tear - Certainly, the 400+ carries is a concern for any RB. But LJ is 28, not 30, and he really has only been a starting RB for 1.5 seasons. He hasn't been getting crushed for 3 seasons now or something like, say, LT2. By comparison, LJ seems relatively fresh compared to many RBs at his age given that he road the bench behind Priest for the first several seasons.

I'm interested in divergent opinions here. I really want to understand why so many people are down on LJ this year. Fire away.

 

[John Mamula]

if he wasn't potentially holding out, he would be a lock for being ranked 2-3. i'd rather give up some upside and grab someone safer than LJ until that is settled.

he is dropping to 5 and 6 routinely now.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

if he wasn't potentially holding out, he would be a lock for being ranked 2-3. i'd rather give up some upside and grab someone safer than LJ until that is settled.

he is dropping to 5 and 6 routinely now.

That is just plain crazy.

 

[greenf7cat]

I'm having a difficult time understanding the rationale for the downgrades and/or skittishness about Larry Johnson this year in KC - with one caveat being the 400+ carries he had last season. That does worry me.

But I'm interested in getting a better understanding of why people think the KC situation is any worse for LJ than it was last year.

1. QB Situation - last year, Trent Green was out nearly the entire season. And LJ did fine. It's hard to invision the QB situation in 2007 being any different than last year. I agree

2. OLine - there is NO question that the KC OLine has diminished appreciably with the departure of Roaf and Shields. But wasn't that the case last year as well? I know Roaf wasn't there, but was Shields? Regardless, despite a clearly lessened OLine, LJ was still a beast. Shields was there last year. He played well, but not as well as he played in the past. Obviously b/c his knees were throbbing and he got older

3. Wear & Tear - Certainly, the 400+ carries is a concern for any RB. But LJ is 28, not 30, and he really has only been a starting RB for 1.5 seasons. He hasn't been getting crushed for 3 seasons now or something like, say, LT2. By comparison, LJ seems relatively fresh compared to many RBs at his age given that he road the bench behind Priest for the first several seasons. 100% fully agree. its a joke to hear this "downside" on him

I'm interested in divergent opinions here. I really want to understand why so many people are down on LJ this year. Fire away.

 

[bocksheesh]

if he wasn't potentially holding out, he would be a lock for being ranked 2-3. i'd rather give up some upside and grab someone safer than LJ until that is settled.he is dropping to 5 and 6 routinely now.

Fair point on the holdout. I guess that depends on how likely one thinks LJ would actually holdout into the season and/or KC would let him without resolving the contract.I don't see how KC lets that happen - LJ is literally their entire offense.So, setting aside the holdout factor - which is a fair point - are all the other reasons stated for an LJ downgrade bunk?

 

[corpcow]

if he wasn't potentially holding out, he would be a lock for being ranked 2-3. i'd rather give up some upside and grab someone safer than LJ until that is settled.

he is dropping to 5 and 6 routinely now.

That is just plain crazy.

Seriously. I can't see him going lower than 3. I'm not a huge LJ fanboy or anything, but there's no way I could see taking Bush or Gore ahead of him... he has less uncertainty and question marks than either of those guys. Who else would you think of taking before him? I mean, really...

 

[Banger]

I'm not so down on him but going into last year he had some ridiculous expectations based on his ypc/td's being a part year starter in '05. A lot of his regression (nearly 1 ypc) was masked by the record breaking # of carries. I don't think there's much reason to believe his ypc will go up this year and I think it will probably drop a bit from the 4.3 from last year. Assuming it stays the same and his carries are reduced to 350 which would have still been the most in the league last year. I think his td's will drop a bit as well. So we're looking at possibly 1500-14 and 400 receiving which would put him at 274 points. Last year that would have put him 3rd, a couple points ahead of Gore.

I think LJ is good and the offense will continue to run through him but the expectations of a year or so ago are a memory.

 

[John Mamula]

if he wasn't potentially holding out, he would be a lock for being ranked 2-3. i'd rather give up some upside and grab someone safer than LJ until that is settled.

he is dropping to 5 and 6 routinely now.

That is just plain crazy.

what's the breakeven between games missed by holdout and the #4 or #5 back?

i think it is about 2. i'd rather be safe and hit my 7 iron into the fairway with my #3 pick than pick a guy who may be gone for who knows how many games.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I'm curious as to your definition of "down on L.J."

I saw him routinely going #3 at the latest in mocks until the holdout potential became a factor and even then he's only slipped to #4-5 at the latest. I think mockers are remaining pretty bullish on the guy considering the potential red flags you pointed out.

 

[bocksheesh]

I'm curious as to your definition of "down on L.J."I saw him routinely going #3 at the latest in mocks until the holdout potential became a factor and even then he's only slipped to #4-5 at the latest. I think mockers are remaining pretty bullish on the guy considering the potential red flags you pointed out.

By "down on LJ" I just mean that there is noticeable conventional wisdom forming around LJ that for the various reasons listed, he is not going to have a good year.That doesn't mean that he won't be drafted in the Top 3 or Top 4. I suspect even with that conventional wisdom becoming entrenched, people will still be very hard pressed to pass on LJ for a Gore or whomever.But again, I'm mainly just curious as to why people think he's in any worse of a position than last year - a year that amazingly didn't meet his preseason expectations but was still a definitive Stud RB type season.