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Congressman Chris Collins, NY (R) and early Trump supporter, arrested for insider trading (1 Viewer)

So Collins suspends re-election campaign.  Who's gonna fill the void?

Stefan Mychajliw (pronounced Muh-hi-lou) has announced his candidacy.  He's a former Buffalo TV newscaster who is currently the Erie County (Buffalo and much of NY 27's fringe area) comptroller.  I never really understood why he was elected comptroller, considering he has no financial/accounting background and apparently doesn't really have any particular skill in that area.  Has a decent bit of name recognition locally from his local TV news days and his current county position, but I'd be lying if I said anyone really knows much about his politics.  He jumped into the fray immediately today and claimed to be an ardent Trump supporter.  It's been known for some time that he has major political aspirations and has been biding his time waiting for the opportunity.  Has more name recognition than McMurray but would make for an interesting race as I don't think many locals know too much about him.

Carl Paladino has also thrown his name into the ring.  He is a big-money real estate developer in Buffalo and also a strident racist.  Famously was quoted as saying his "what would you most like to happen in 2017?" and "what would you like to see go away in 2017?" were, quote:

1.  Obama catches mad cow disease after being caught having relations with a Herford.  He dies before his trial and is buried in a cow pasture next to Valerie Jarret, who died weeks prior, after being convicted of sedition and treason, when a Jihady cell mate mistook her for being a nice person and decapitated her.

2.  Michelle Obama.  I’d like her to return to being a male and let loose in the outback of Zimbabwe where she lives comfortably in a cave with Maxie, the gorilla.
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Paladino was the co-chair of Trump's NY campaign committee and is a long-time supporter.  Paladino ran a failed bid to win the 2010 governor election, but managed to win all 8 counties of what is generally considered "Western New York", 5 counties of which comprise much of NY 27.  Has a ton of name recognition but some legitimate racist baggage.  I guess nothing would surprise me, but he's incredibly toxic and I'd be surprised if the Washington GOP happily accepts him.

A number of local/state government names are being thrown around, but these two have openly thrown their names in the ring.

 
Larry Piegza getting a little bump in interest from this Collins thing.  Piegza is a local small business owner who is running on the Reform Party line, and is essentially a "Never Trump" conservative.  I doubt he'll gain any real traction but he could steal a few votes away from whoever replaces Collins in the general election.

 
Also, supposedly, the only way the GOP can replace Collins on the ballot is to have him either die, move out of state, or run for a different elected office.  He owns a home in Florida so that seems like the most logical answer.  There's also light talk about throwing him on the ballot in some district for some random ### job against a currently-unopposed Democratic candidate in a race that Collins would be sure to lose.  

Otherwise it's going to be a write-in candidacy for a handful of candidates, which surely must favor McMurray.

 
boots11234 said:
timschochet said:
If he was just a Republican Congressman, even if he was a firm supporter of Trump’s agenda, I wouldn’t have posted that. In fact I probably wouldn’t have started the thread, as corruption is so ubiquitous that I rarely find it interesting enough to comment on. 

What makes this interesting is 

(a) his direct connection to Trump

(b) the possibility that other GOP Congressmen are involved

(c) the effect that the current climate of corruption introduced by Trump will have on the upcoming election. 
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What’s the direct connection as you see it?  
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Besides the early endorsement (which Tim mentioned) Collins was also on the Trump transition team's "Executive Committee" along with some other people you might have heard of...Jared Kushner, Rebekah Mercer, Steve Mnuchin, Devin Nunes, Donald Trump Jr, Reince Preibus, Stephen Bannon, etc. 

https://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/11/11/starting-line-up-whos-who-on-trumps-transition-team/

 
The GOP party chairs of the 8 counties that are part of NY 27 are meeting today to discuss options.  11 people have openly expressed interest for the position, and apparently many more have expressed interest behind the scenes.  Main players are Mychajliw and Paladino as previously discussed, local radio host David Bellavia, 4 state senators from the Buffalo/Rochester area, 2 state assemblymen, and 2 people from the Erie County legislature.

Bellavia is an interesting option for the GOP.  42 year old decorated war vet who received a Silver Star for his service during the Second Battle of Fallujah.  He has unsuccessfully attempted to gain the GOP nomination for this spot in the past before settling into drive-time conservative talk radio (and I'm talking fringe Alex Jones type stuff at times, though that may not be Bellavia's doing as his co-host may be genuinely insane).  When Collins first announced he was stepping down, this guy's name was the first name on everyone's lips.  

 
Steve Tasker said:
The GOP party chairs of the 8 counties that are part of NY 27 are meeting today to discuss options.  11 people have openly expressed interest for the position, and apparently many more have expressed interest behind the scenes.  Main players are Mychajliw and Paladino as previously discussed, local radio host David Bellavia, 4 state senators from the Buffalo/Rochester area, 2 state assemblymen, and 2 people from the Erie County legislature.

Bellavia is an interesting option for the GOP.  42 year old decorated war vet who received a Silver Star for his service during the Second Battle of Fallujah.  He has unsuccessfully attempted to gain the GOP nomination for this spot in the past before settling into drive-time conservative talk radio (and I'm talking fringe Alex Jones type stuff at times, though that may not be Bellavia's doing as his co-host may be genuinely insane).  When Collins first announced he was stepping down, this guy's name was the first name on everyone's lips.  
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It boggles my mind that Paladino is still a name in local politics. Collins was filth, Paladino is filth v2.0.

 
Interesting poll results from a recent survey.

McMurray faces a substantial uphill battle against most of the major contenders, except Carl Paladino.  Down 13 points to Mychajliw, down 12 points to Chris Jacobs, down 9 points to Mike Ranzenhofer.

The two most interesting results to me are the resounding blowout win for Pat Gallivan, and the razor-thin margin against Paladino.  

Gallivan is the former Erie County Sheriff and currently a State Senator.  Clean-cut former cop in a deeply red district.  Voted along party lines against same-sex marriage in 2011 (on the losing side, as the law was passed) which probably plays well in this district.  Has the strongest favorability rating of anyone tested.

Paladino, on the other hand, looks to be harmed by his name recognition.  His favorability is actually underwater - more people have an unfavorable opinion.  Only 7% of people have "no opinion", whereas that figure is at least 32% for all other GOP hopefuls.  People know him and they don't like him.  But he presents an interesting face in that (1) Trump loves him and he's an original Trump supporter, (2) his supporters absolutely love him, and (3) he's the only one of these guys who can self-fund a campaign in 3 months because he's financially loaded.   Despite that, though, it looks like people would actively vote against him because they just plain don't like him.

 
Steve Tasker said:
Paladino was the co-chair of Trump's NY campaign committee and is a long-time supporter.  Paladino ran a failed bid to win the 2010 governor election, but managed to win all 8 counties of what is generally considered "Western New York", 5 counties of which comprise much of NY 27.  Has a ton of name recognition but some legitimate racist baggage.  I guess nothing would surprise me, but he's incredibly toxic and I'd be surprised if the Washington GOP happily accepts him.
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Thanks for the map. The difference between Buffalo and Rochester is interesting.

 
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D_House said:
Thanks for the map. The difference between Buffalo and Rochester is interesting.
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I'm sure Paladino got a substantial bump in the area because he's a Buffalo native and well-known locally, kinda like how presidential candidates tend to do better in their home states.  That said, even if you look at the 2006 gubernatorial race, 3 of the only 4 counties who voted GOP are right in that area between Buffalo and Rochester.  I think an argument could be made as to whether Orleans County and Wyoming County (2 of those counties, both entirely within NY 27) are more Buffalo-centric or Rochester-centric, but either way they're both rural farmland-type GOP strongholds.  Or as I saw on Twitter the other day, "a little slice of Mississippi in upstate NY".

 
Steve Tasker said:
I'm sure Paladino got a substantial bump in the area because he's a Buffalo native and well-known locally, kinda like how presidential candidates tend to do better in their home states.  That said, even if you look at the 2006 gubernatorial race, 3 of the only 4 counties who voted GOP are right in that area between Buffalo and Rochester.  I think an argument could be made as to whether Orleans County and Wyoming County (2 of those counties, both entirely within NY 27) are more Buffalo-centric or Rochester-centric, but either way they're both rural farmland-type GOP strongholds.  Or as I saw on Twitter the other day, "a little slice of Mississippi in upstate NY".
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And the 2014 gubernatorial map shows just how much of a swing state upstate would be.  This red/blue map wouldn't be out of place anywhere else in the country outside of the northeast.

 
Steve Tasker said:
I'm sure Paladino got a substantial bump in the area because he's a Buffalo native and well-known locally, kinda like how presidential candidates tend to do better in their home states.  That said, even if you look at the 2006 gubernatorial race, 3 of the only 4 counties who voted GOP are right in that area between Buffalo and Rochester.  I think an argument could be made as to whether Orleans County and Wyoming County (2 of those counties, both entirely within NY 27) are more Buffalo-centric or Rochester-centric, but either way they're both rural farmland-type GOP strongholds.  Or as I saw on Twitter the other day, "a little slice of Mississippi in upstate NY".
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I was born in a small city in Orleans County. I would characterize it as more "Rochester-centric". The description "a little slice of Mississippi in upstate NY" is perfectly accurate IMO.

 
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump

Two long running, Obama era, investigations of two very popular Republican Congressmen were brought to a well publicized charge, just ahead of the Mid-Terms, by the Jeff Sessions Justice Department. Two easy wins now in doubt because there is not enough time. Good job Jeff......

11:25 AM - 3 Sep 2018
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He's referring, I presume, to Collins and Hunter.

Who cares about truth, justice, law and order??? All that matters is that my party could lose seats!!

 
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D_House said:
Sessions getting slammed by Trump for draining the swamp. 
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Trump: "It should have been obvious from my initial remarks, but just in case it was not, I wanted to clarify.  When I said: 'I wanted to drain the swamp', what I meant to say was: 'I wanted to not drain the swamp.'  So, there should have been a "not" in there.  So you can put that in and I think that probably clarifies things pretty good by itself. "

 
Collins decides to stay in the race, which blindsides local GOP officials.

Per NYT:

Representative Chris Collins, the New York Republican indicted on insider trading charges last month, reversed course on Monday and announced he would seek another term.

Mr. Collins opted to stay on the ballot on the advice of lawyers who said his removal — a Byzantine procedure governed by New York’s complex election laws — would most likely face a Democratic lawsuit, and would muddle the election for his replacement, ultimately leaving the Western New York seat vulnerable to Democrats.

“Because of the protracted and uncertain nature of any legal effort to replace Congressman Collins, we do not see a path allowing Congressman Collins to be replaced on the ballot,” Mark Braden, a lawyer for Mr. Collins, said in a statement.

The decision ends a month of wrangling by would-be potential successors and is likely to buoy Democrats hoping to steal a seat from Republicans in one of the most conservative bastions in New York.

[. . .]

In August, county leaders interviewed several candidates, including state legislators, who were eager to replace Mr. Collins on the Republican line. The plan was to nominate Mr. Collins for a lesser district office later this week, perhaps a town clerkship or assessor’s post, a move that Mr. Collins had assured them that he would support.

“We’ve been working for six weeks on this, and we felt there was a clear avenue to replace Congressman Collins, with his cooperation,” Nick Langworthy, chairman of the Erie County Republican Committee, said at a news conference on Monday.

“This comes as a pretty great surprise to all of us who have worked very, very hard, and then had the rug pulled out from under us,” he added.

In one scenario, Mr. Collins would have run for a vacancy in the Town of Eden, but had to establish residency there before the general election. (Residents there subsequently held a protest, holding signs that included, “Collins is a swamp monster.”)
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538 has been slowing inching this race closer and closer as Election Day nears.  Collins had about an 84% chance of winning prior to the indictment, which climbed up to as high as 94% a few weeks ago but has steadily dropped after the Kavanaugh confirmation to 65.5%.  

I have yet to see a McMurray TV ad of any sort, only Collins attack ads.  Kinda wish I'd lived in this district so I could make an impactful vote, but oh well.

 
Steve Tasker said:
538 has been slowing inching this race closer and closer as Election Day nears.  Collins had about an 84% chance of winning prior to the indictment, which climbed up to as high as 94% a few weeks ago but has steadily dropped after the Kavanaugh confirmation to 65.5%.  

I have yet to see a McMurray TV ad of any sort, only Collins attack ads.  Kinda wish I'd lived in this district so I could make an impactful vote, but oh well.
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I've seen a bunch of McMurray ads. They are running one quite a bit that shows a bunch of supposedly Republican voters who give little speeches about how they have been lifelong Republicans who are now voting McMurry  for a list of reasons. This ad also hammers the fact that he's under indictment for insider trading.

The Collins attack ads are ridiculous. Bunch of bogeymen, socialism,  Pelosi, blah blah.

 
Ranethe said:
I've seen a bunch of McMurray ads. They are running one quite a bit that shows a bunch of supposedly Republican voters who give little speeches about how they have been lifelong Republicans who are now voting McMurry  for a list of reasons. This ad also hammers the fact that he's under indictment for insider trading.

The Collins attack ads are ridiculous. Bunch of bogeymen, socialism,  Pelosi, blah blah.
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Saw that McMurray ad for the first time today.

 
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