Contract Dynasty Strategy Discussion (1 Viewer)

[Keys Myaths]

There's always a lot of dynasty talk in the offseason, but not very much (if anything) dedicated to those of us who have to worry about contracts and staying under a salary cap.

Let's start some discussion, and I'll bring in a new topic every week. Sound good?

First of all, let's talk about the rookies. In most dynasty leagues, it's easy to value a rookie pick. These picks have been studied for years, and some people have even done studies to make equivalents to dynasty startup picks (for example, the 1.01 rookie pick is worth the 2.12 startup pick, or something like that). In most contract leagues, you still get rookie draft picks, but they're already assigned a dollar value and a contract length.

So, let's start discussing how these values differ from other leagues.

Discussion points:

1. What % of your cap do you feel that this year's 1.01 pick is worth? The 1.02? How much further down before you hit a dropoff this year?

2. Since we have an incredible class of rookie RBs this year, are the 1.04 and 1.05 picks actually MORE valuable than the 1.01, because of reduced contract size?

3. Does your league typically trade rookie picks a lot, or do they stay put due to contract and cap restraints?

Feel free to bring up new points related to rookie picks in contract leagues, and suggestions for next week's thread.

 

[coolnerd]

I would say discussion is limited because each league requires some variation in strategy, so it is hard to be general and not "AC" forumish.

I will answer 3. Not sure about what 1 is asking and 2 has too many variables like ranking of rookies, salary difference, general set-up of the league for me to answer generally.

In my leagues that have contracts and/or salaries, I find that the picks move more. Often you have teams trying to move salary and one way to do so is to trade high salaried players taking back picks and lower cap guys. Of course, there are teams who will load up on short term expensive contracts because they can get out of an older player like Harrison or Alexander and get cap/contract space back. Because of the dynamics of money, there are only a few people who are untradeable.

In the future, we need talk about the variety of roster management strategies that open up in these leagues.

 

[Keys Myaths]

As far as #1 is concerned, mainly I'm talking about what % of your cap rookies are worth. Of COURSE the structure varies. Let's say I'm in a $200 cap league, and the 1.01 costs $32 a year. Well, I'm asking in #1 what that pick is ACTUALLY worth in terms of percentage of a cap. If I feel that the 1.01 is only worth 10% of the cap, I'm going to look to trade the 1.01 as quickly as possible. If I feel the 1.01 is worth 20% of my cap, then I'm going to try and trade for the 1.01.

I'm trying with these questions to use percentages and the like to keep it as general as possible.

With #2, you will probably have to answer in your league's paramaters, but it gives a good idea of how close the rookie RBs are, and if trading down is the way to go this year.

 

[MAC_32]

1) Assuming a $200 salary cap I currently have the top 5 valued as follows

#1. DMC $35

#2. J Stew $15

#3 Mendenhall $12

#4 Felix Jones $8

#5 ______ $4 - right now Mike Hart or Matt Ryan

Our league is a bit different though in that we encompass contract lengths as well as salary cap, we try to copy the NFL as closely as possible, it's also IDP and includes punters...yes, punters - we'd add OLine if we could but MFL doesn't support that...yet. I currently have the #9 pick which is valued at $4 for 3 years, I plan to stay put unless I can deal pick #9 for two picks in the late 2nd/early 3rd range and Matt Ryan's off the board, assuming he's in a favorable situation.

2) DMC is more than worth 1.01, J Stew is slightly more valuable than 1.02, Mendenhall is properly valued at 1.03, Felix Jones is slightly below value of pick 1.04, and 1.05-1.07 are all not worth the pick. The value seems to come in between picks 1.08 and remains into the 3rd round which is when you're appoaching flier status anyway. This year's class is deep at both RB and WR, to a lesser degree TE too. I'd hate to have a mid 1st rounder this year.

 

[C & C]

1. What % of your cap do you feel that this year's 1.01 pick is worth? The 1.02? How much further down before you hit a dropoff this year?

In a typical year 1.01 is probably worth 15% of your cap. If you feel McFadden is on par with Peterson then it's probably worth a little more, maybe 20%. Personally I still see a little more risk than usual this year and put it just under the 15%. It's all in how you evaluate McFadden. Even if he's not your #1 he'll likely be taken at #1.

2. Since we have an incredible class of rookie RBs this year, are the 1.04 and 1.05 picks actually MORE valuable than the 1.01, because of reduced contract size?

1.04/1.05/1.06 have more value than usual. 1.04/1.05 may be worth as much as 7-8% this year. That could be twice what I believe it's normally worth. Typcially I evaluate rookes with a sharp decline after the first couple. It should be noted, my leagues only allow you to carry a player a maximum of 4 years before the contract is re-negotiated. So the question becomes how much cap do I want to eat up for a player who may only produce in year 4.

3. Does your league typically trade rookie picks a lot, or do they stay put due to contract and cap restraints?

Rookie picks move very often during the season and only a slight amount in the off-season. In season, owners are willing to sell a part of their future for a chance to win now. In the off-season everyone wants to wait it out to see what each NFL team selects and how camps open up. We typically make our selections during the second week of training camps.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Another question--do you see rookie picks having more or less value than typical dynasty leagues, given the fact that contract length/price is already set?

 

[C & C]

Another question--do you see rookie picks having more or less value than typical dynasty leagues, given the fact that contract length/price is already set?

Outside the first few picks, I'd say less value for rookies contract length/price than a typical dynasty league.

It's a very interesting question though. Since the player is tied to that contract price a late rookie pick can almost be priceless. I'll use Marques Colston last year. He went in the 2nd round of my rookie draft and his cap value was ~1%. He tears it up and who are you going to trade this guy for? His performance to dollar ratio is outstanding. In a typical dynasty league his value will normalize very quickly.

 

[beto]

place holder for later

I'm in 2 dynasty contract leagues, both very different, but I have some pretty strong opinions on your questions.

 

[JoeSteeler]

for later

 

[Keys Myaths]

I'm in 2 dynasty contract leagues, both very different, but I have some pretty strong opinions on your questions.

 

[GregR_2]

I think much of what I would answer to the OP's questions won't be of use to many people. We have a $500 cap, 45-55 players on the rosters, and start 26 players each week including 11 offensive players, a full 4-3 defense, kicker, punter, kick return and head coach. Also, our rookie prices are set as an average of the veteran salaries at that position. I.e. A 1st round RB costs you the average of the 13th to 24th highest paid RBs (the bottom 50% of fantasy starters at that position). Each round after has a 1/3 drop in price. Unlike the NFL, we don't differentiate price between the 1.1 and the 1.12 if they are at the same position.

There really aren't any players in this format worth more than 25% of a team's cap ($125). And since we have 3 year contracts (with options for 1-2 more years and also franchise/transition tags to retain top players), I tend to prefer to trade picks to pick up veteran players if possible. Some positions like QB you likely have to draft the players and hope they become a starter in 3 years, as few teams will trade starting QBs since we can start 2. But positions like WR is a big crapshoot on who will work out to be worth starting in 3 years. And we actually only have 2 years to see how the player does, as we have to make our option year decisions after year 2.

The first couple of years I tended to use my picks. Now I tend to to drop back to the rounds where player salaries drop to minimum prices, and pick up as many sleeper RBs as I can, hoping I can get a $1 starting RB. We can have a few extra roster spots in preseason and so I have to gamble on which guys to cut. Unfortunately I cut Selvin Young this year as one of my last roster cutdowns.

I do still value the picks... took Jamarcus Russell this last year, and also took some players that set up trades to get Greg Olsen (our TEs get 1 pt receptions) and James Jones. But I'd rather deal with known commodities for the most part. Running back is really the only position I would want to rely on the rookie draft to fill in my contract league. I haven't started planning heavily for this next year, but I will likely try to trade away my first round pick (1.11, lost the Super Bowl DOH!) for a guy who can help me now.

I probably covered OP's #1 and #2 in all of that. To answer #3, we have a ton of trades. Last year I think we had upwards of 35 trades in the off-season, not all of them involving draft picks, but most did as we tend to use them to balance out trades. I think there is a wide range of opinion in my league on what the value of a draft pick is, however, and that definitely fuels the trades as both sides often think they got a steal because they view the values different.

 

[coolnerd]

Another question--do you see rookie picks having more or less value than typical dynasty leagues, given the fact that contract length/price is already set?

What I see in my leagues is different over more or less value. Because the contract/$$$ involved the value seems greater because for example the 1.01 for 2million and 5 years when the top 15 RBs all cost over 2.5 million and may only have a year or two left. That said, the fact that teams are more willing to trade players to manage the cap keeps a market for veteran players alive, so the top although they always seem to move, do not go for value that exceeds dynasty leagues.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Good topic, Keys. This is a tough one as many have said due to the different ways Cap leagues and Contract Leagues are set up.

For example, as you know, I'm in a contract league (one both Keys and I were in at one point) and there is a Development Squad. That league allows you to "stash" rookies there for 3 years without giving them a contract, so I'd say the rookies there can be worth more than in other leagues where you have to give them a contract right away. For example, if you weren't sure about MJD when you drafted him in 2006, you could have stashed him on the DS for a year, waited to see how good he was, and then signed him for 2007 knowing he was a good player - and not wasting a contract.

There are other aspects, such as "can you steal from other owners' DS" - and what's the price / penalty there as well. That also weighs in on how soon you have to sign / contract a player. I have Ryan Grant on DS right now for example, and I get a free shot at a contract come 2008. Nice to know that now, rather than last September. Also - he can't be stolen at all, so that greatly helps.

In addition, another point about contract leagues - what is/are the penalties for giving a player a big contract if he doesn't pan out? For example, if you give Mendenhall a 10-year deal and he blows out two knees, what can you do? IR with no contract penalty? Cut before 2009 with no penalty? No way to alleviate that big deal?

All points to consider.

 

[beto]

1. What % of your cap do you feel that this year's 1.01 pick is worth? The 1.02? How much further down before you hit a dropoff this year?

In one league I'm in, all rookie pick salaries are a bargain. I think this is a flaw of the league. If we at least had inflation over the life of the contract it would force owners to make tougher cap decisions.In the other league, which also includes IDPs, rookie salaries start at over 6% of cap and slowly trickle down into the 6th round. If I had to put a price on this years 1.01 pick I'd say it's worth upwards of 20% of cap, maybe not for year 1, but certainly over the life of the contract. I'd say the next 2 picks will carry more than 10% of cap value, and with IDPs we may be looking at up to 10 picks that are worth much more than the assigned salary. Once you get past the RBs and LBs with huge potential you start to get into territory where the cap value assigned to player presents too much risk for the player you get. Even 4 or 5% of cap hits you hard if the pick doesn't pan out and can affect your team because of the dead weight of the contract.

2. Since we have an incredible class of rookie RBs this year, are the 1.04 and 1.05 picks actually MORE valuable than the 1.01, because of reduced contract size?

None of my leagues have enough of a cap difference between the 1.01 and 1.05 to say this is true, but if we did, I could see this year the 4 and the 5 having more value than the 2 and the 3. It could be similar to the year that Bush, Addai, Maroney, DWilliams and Lendale came out.

3. Does your league typically trade rookie picks a lot, or do they stay put due to contract and cap restraints?

Both leagues trade rookie picks quite a bit. The cheap rookie league sees most of it's rookie pick trades during the season. Our rookie draft is live, so not much trading during the actual draft. The IDP league sees trading during the draft because of the 24 hour time limit and the types of owners involved. I think the beauty of contract leagues with rookie drafts is you have more dynamics to trade in and you don't have to worry as much about trading away young guys because they eventually will come off their contract and become free agents.

 

[beto]

Another question--do you see rookie picks having more or less value than typical dynasty leagues, given the fact that contract length/price is already set?

Outside the first few picks, I'd say less value for rookies contract length/price than a typical dynasty league.

It's a very interesting question though. Since the player is tied to that contract price a late rookie pick can almost be priceless. I'll use Marques Colston last year. He went in the 2nd round of my rookie draft and his cap value was ~1%. He tears it up and who are you going to trade this guy for? His performance to dollar ratio is outstanding. In a typical dynasty league his value will normalize very quickly.

, this is the key to winning championships in many leagues. The other side of the coin is MIke Williams who kills your cap for years if you have to hold the salary.

 

[Keys Myaths]

1. What % of your cap do you feel that this year's 1.01 pick is worth? The 1.02? How much further down before you hit a dropoff this year?

In one league I'm in, all rookie pick salaries are a bargain. I think this is a flaw of the league. If we at least had inflation over the life of the contract it would force owners to make tougher cap decisions.In the other league, which also includes IDPs, rookie salaries start at over 6% of cap and slowly trickle down into the 6th round. If I had to put a price on this years 1.01 pick I'd say it's worth upwards of 20% of cap, maybe not for year 1, but certainly over the life of the contract. I'd say the next 2 picks will carry more than 10% of cap value, and with IDPs we may be looking at up to 10 picks that are worth much more than the assigned salary. Once you get past the RBs and LBs with huge potential you start to get into territory where the cap value assigned to player presents too much risk for the player you get. Even 4 or 5% of cap hits you hard if the pick doesn't pan out and can affect your team because of the dead weight of the contract.

2. Since we have an incredible class of rookie RBs this year, are the 1.04 and 1.05 picks actually MORE valuable than the 1.01, because of reduced contract size?

None of my leagues have enough of a cap difference between the 1.01 and 1.05 to say this is true, but if we did, I could see this year the 4 and the 5 having more value than the 2 and the 3. It could be similar to the year that Bush, Addai, Maroney, DWilliams and Lendale came out.

3. Does your league typically trade rookie picks a lot, or do they stay put due to contract and cap restraints?

Both leagues trade rookie picks quite a bit. The cheap rookie league sees most of it's rookie pick trades during the season. Our rookie draft is live, so not much trading during the actual draft. The IDP league sees trading during the draft because of the 24 hour time limit and the types of owners involved. I think the beauty of contract leagues with rookie drafts is you have more dynamics to trade in and you don't have to worry as much about trading away young guys because they eventually will come off their contract and become free agents.

See, in my league, I feel as though the rookies are overpriced, at least in comparison to our initial auction this past year. For example, Adrian Peterson went to me for $22 (200 cap) in our draft, but the 1.01 will cost $35 for three years. Yes, Adrian was underpriced, especially with what we know now, but that's quite a jump. Other rookies are the same way.