Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
Hey everybody, Bruce Hammond aka Couch Potato here...
There was a lot of response to the Couch Potato 2012 Offseason Dynasty Rankings thread last Spring and Summer, and requests this year to do it again, so here it is.
Below you'll find rankings for 60 QB, 120 RB, 156 WR, and 72 TE. Plus another unranked 24 QB, 36 RB, 60 WR, and 36 TE. This gets us in a 12-team league through fantasy QB7s, RB13s, WR18s, and TE9s. This year I've tiered things a little differently than last year, corresponding to 12-team fantasy league groupings. For example, a WR2 tier would mean receivers in the 13-24 range.
I've also separated the rankings into 4 different posts for QB, RB, WR, TE to make the start of each ranking group easier to get to rather than having to find everything in the 1st post. Updates should take place every week or two. I'll try to post the date of the most recent update.
Note that these are PPR rankings and will correspond to my Footballguys.com dynasty rankings which are also PPR. Those rankings are free this time of year. Whether this thread's rankings updates will be continued or not once the offseason rankings at FBG are no longer free is TBD. I stopped updating rankings in last year's thread at some point after I became staff and the staff rankings were no longer free. Though I was not asked to by The Powers That Be, it seemed the right thing to do. I should probably find out this year what their stance is on keeping the thread going.
Player notes will be done over the coming days and weeks as time permits and posted along with the regular updates.
A note on pre-draft rookie rankings. The notes sections for this year's rookie players are in blue so they can be easily found. There are dozens of sources and different approaches I could take in ranking rookies prior to the NFL draft, and honestly my opinion is that it isn't worth the effort to burn hours and hours on it. So, I take the player rankings and projected draft rounds provided by NFLDRAFTSCOUT.COM and slot players within my vet rankings where I think there's a reasonable chance they might fall. BUT... all it is is a ballpark ranking so don't get too excited by it. I don't think many leagues are drafting rookies for fantasy until after the NFL draft anyway, and if you are, you're in a pretty hardcore league and hopefully are already doing lots of homework. I'll put a lot more effort into where these rookies are ranked once they are drafted onto their NFL teams. If someone is unhappy about this basic and simple approach prior to the NFL draft, feel free to ignore the rookies altogether until after the draft.
I've tried to keep up with the offseason player movement and this list is accurate as to teams and contracts as far as I know. Of course, errors and ommissions can occur. Some players have not yet signed their RFA or ERFA tenders. In such cases a small case r or e is placed next to the team name. For example, TE Pitta is listed with BALr. Players whose contracts expired after 2012 and are UFA (as opposed to being cut while still under contract) are shown in the notes as UFA=>??? with their former team in parentheses. If a player was under contract and has been cut this offseason (e.g., Beanie Wells), you'll see for example "signed through ----. Cut by ARI 3/11."
Something I kept on Post #1 of last year's thread bears repeating: I like to remind people that a dynasty list is not necessarily a trade list or a draft list no matter how firm the list becomes. Other factors beyond dynasty ranking come into play in making roster choices. Mix already on the roster in terms of age/youth, player risk, need for current production vs. upside, etc., all play a part in the decision. Making trades or drafting a team based just on someone's dynasty list is a mistake in my opinion. Every dynasty roster is a balancing act has its own specific needs, and no list should be a substitute for using good overall judgment.
Finally, these are my rankings. Not consensus rankings. Not your rankings. But know that I'm happy to hear arguments if you feel strongly that I'm really wacky somewhere. Sparking discussion is a big benefit of posting them. Maybe you can change my mind, who knows. I can't promise you I'll make the time or have the inclination to debate every post arguing this or that though. We all have different preferences/beliefs when predicting the future and that might just be all there is to say sometimes. I've never been one to make time for huge long message board debates and sometimes it's best to just agree to disagree. One way or another, hopefully folks get something out of these rankings and can live with areas where we disagree.
I'll update/edit this first post if more comes to mind that needs to be mentioned. Right now it is getting into my Sunday evening so I'm going to stop here..
BH aka CP 4/7/13
There was a lot of response to the Couch Potato 2012 Offseason Dynasty Rankings thread last Spring and Summer, and requests this year to do it again, so here it is.
Below you'll find rankings for 60 QB, 120 RB, 156 WR, and 72 TE. Plus another unranked 24 QB, 36 RB, 60 WR, and 36 TE. This gets us in a 12-team league through fantasy QB7s, RB13s, WR18s, and TE9s. This year I've tiered things a little differently than last year, corresponding to 12-team fantasy league groupings. For example, a WR2 tier would mean receivers in the 13-24 range.
I've also separated the rankings into 4 different posts for QB, RB, WR, TE to make the start of each ranking group easier to get to rather than having to find everything in the 1st post. Updates should take place every week or two. I'll try to post the date of the most recent update.
Note that these are PPR rankings and will correspond to my Footballguys.com dynasty rankings which are also PPR. Those rankings are free this time of year. Whether this thread's rankings updates will be continued or not once the offseason rankings at FBG are no longer free is TBD. I stopped updating rankings in last year's thread at some point after I became staff and the staff rankings were no longer free. Though I was not asked to by The Powers That Be, it seemed the right thing to do. I should probably find out this year what their stance is on keeping the thread going.
Player notes will be done over the coming days and weeks as time permits and posted along with the regular updates.
A note on pre-draft rookie rankings. The notes sections for this year's rookie players are in blue so they can be easily found. There are dozens of sources and different approaches I could take in ranking rookies prior to the NFL draft, and honestly my opinion is that it isn't worth the effort to burn hours and hours on it. So, I take the player rankings and projected draft rounds provided by NFLDRAFTSCOUT.COM and slot players within my vet rankings where I think there's a reasonable chance they might fall. BUT... all it is is a ballpark ranking so don't get too excited by it. I don't think many leagues are drafting rookies for fantasy until after the NFL draft anyway, and if you are, you're in a pretty hardcore league and hopefully are already doing lots of homework. I'll put a lot more effort into where these rookies are ranked once they are drafted onto their NFL teams. If someone is unhappy about this basic and simple approach prior to the NFL draft, feel free to ignore the rookies altogether until after the draft.
I've tried to keep up with the offseason player movement and this list is accurate as to teams and contracts as far as I know. Of course, errors and ommissions can occur. Some players have not yet signed their RFA or ERFA tenders. In such cases a small case r or e is placed next to the team name. For example, TE Pitta is listed with BALr. Players whose contracts expired after 2012 and are UFA (as opposed to being cut while still under contract) are shown in the notes as UFA=>??? with their former team in parentheses. If a player was under contract and has been cut this offseason (e.g., Beanie Wells), you'll see for example "signed through ----. Cut by ARI 3/11."
Something I kept on Post #1 of last year's thread bears repeating: I like to remind people that a dynasty list is not necessarily a trade list or a draft list no matter how firm the list becomes. Other factors beyond dynasty ranking come into play in making roster choices. Mix already on the roster in terms of age/youth, player risk, need for current production vs. upside, etc., all play a part in the decision. Making trades or drafting a team based just on someone's dynasty list is a mistake in my opinion. Every dynasty roster is a balancing act has its own specific needs, and no list should be a substitute for using good overall judgment.
Finally, these are my rankings. Not consensus rankings. Not your rankings. But know that I'm happy to hear arguments if you feel strongly that I'm really wacky somewhere. Sparking discussion is a big benefit of posting them. Maybe you can change my mind, who knows. I can't promise you I'll make the time or have the inclination to debate every post arguing this or that though. We all have different preferences/beliefs when predicting the future and that might just be all there is to say sometimes. I've never been one to make time for huge long message board debates and sometimes it's best to just agree to disagree. One way or another, hopefully folks get something out of these rankings and can live with areas where we disagree.
I'll update/edit this first post if more comes to mind that needs to be mentioned. Right now it is getting into my Sunday evening so I'm going to stop here..
BH aka CP 4/7/13
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I see value young players with upside, over players with a track record.
I agree with him that McFad is ranked too high but I could see the other 2 lower as well.
The sorts of comments I've been reading are to be expected, including the specific players mentioned that some see as ranked too high or too low. I'm reminded of an old Ricky Nelson song called Garden Party that has these lines: "But it's all right now, I've learned my lesson well. You see you can't please everyone, so you've got to please yourself."With that, onward...
but I'm just not one of those guys.
