Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Couch Potato 2013 Offseason Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bruce Hammond
- Start date
joey
Footballguy
Sounds great, Bruce. Let's meet halfway between us and take in the greatness that will be the 2013 Raiders.
One man's opinion, time will tell if he's right or wrong.
Phenix
Footballguy
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Gawain
Footballguy
Decker's value was inflated by an unsustainable TD pace and his situation in 2012 was about the best anyone could have.
Patterson has as good or better measurables than Decker, will likely be the clear cut #1 WR and doesn't have the talent/situation questions than Decker has.
I don't know which I value more, but that's an easy argument to make.
Here are how several WRs have performed in their last 16 games played:
Calvin Johnson - 122/1964/5 (342 fantasy points in PPR)
Brandon Marshall - 118/1506/11 (335 points)
Percy Harvin - 112/1496/12 (334 points)*
Dez Bryant- 92/1382/12 (302 points)
A.J. Green- 97/1350/11 (298 points)
Rob Gronkowski- 79/1156/16 (291 points)
Demaryius Thomas- 92/1351/10 (287 points)
Julio Jones- 86/1315/10 (278 points)
*One of Harvin's TDs was on a kickoff return, so if your league doesn't count those, this should be 328 points. Also worth pointing out that this includes a game where Harvin only played a quarter before leaving with injury.
The injury to end the season- combined with the unusually high percentage of his numbers that come on runs- has obscured the fact that over the last half of 2011 and the first half of 2012, nobody except Calvin was a better fantasy WR.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
As long as Fantasy Leagues keep separating them and even giving additional points to the position then yes it necessary; once majority of new start ups adjust to the new NFL then I can see combining the 2.
Blackmon? Yeah, I liked what I saw and his stats compared well to recent 1st year WRs. Seems like a lot of people have Shorts and Blackmon ranked pretty closely though.
I'm pretty skeptical that offense is capable of producing a top ten WR for a few years anyways...
Shanahanigans
Footballguy
Maybe I'm just a Denver homer, but I don't own Decker, and would definitely take him over Patterson. Patterson is extremely raw, and listening to him talk, let's just say he's not a Mathlete. That scares me from a dynasty perspective. Decker may not have an elite skill-set physically, but his route running and intangibles allow him to be elite in a way that Reggie Wayne or Greg Jennings have been in the past.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
thats a good question, QB is a major upgrade but now hes surround by talent in Rice/Tate/Z Miller all are former high 2nd rounders. Harvin is by far the best out of all the receiving options but he won't be feed the ball like he was in Minny. However, do keep in mind that Lynch could be facing league suspension from last yrs DUIhttp://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/jason-la-canfora/20121034/seattle-rb-lynch-will-not-be-suspended-for-offseason-dui
"Lynch already had his meeting with Commissioner Roger Goodell in response to the latest incident, sources said, and the league is not suspending him. The NFL will wait for the legal case to be resolved -- which is likely going to occur some time in 2013"
Last edited by a moderator:
Yes. Gabbert got injured in week 11 against Houston and Blackmon had a monster (7/236/1) game that day with Henne. He was only averaging about 3.5 ppg (non-ppr) with Gabbert.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
But he didn't look Dez Braynt (as a rookie) good. Bryant showed flashes and made plays that MAYBE 4-5 other guys could make. I think WR9 is close to the ceiling for Blackmon, and, as he's not there yet, I wouldn't value him as top 10 right now.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Bruce, mind sharing your thoughts on Lacy? RB13 is higher than his ADP, if I am not mistaken, so you seem to like him more tham the market. As do I.
Last edited by a moderator:
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Yeah - I don't have Blackmon top 10, but I do like him and am not worried about Gabbert at all. He's too young and talented to let short term QB play hinder his value much, in my opinion.
biju
Footballguy
It's worth keeping in mind that while they might not necessarily feed him the ball, Minnesota's gameplan seemed to heavily revolve around the quick out and letting Harvin fight for yardage. I think Wilson and the offense is going to get Harvin the ball further down the field
Tau837
Footballguy
Wilson had just 393 attempts last season. I think it's likely he will have more this year, probably somewhere around 450, give or take a few, assuming Lynch is healthy and not suspended. Projecting 450 attempts in 16 games is projecting just over 28 attempts per game. Last season, Wilson attempted 28+ passes in just 4 of 18 games.
I think this means Harvin will receive fewer targets and fewer touches than he did in Minnesota, at least compared to how they used him in 2012 prior to his injury. However, the quality of his targets should be better. Projecting him will be tricky IMO.
And as long as the Seahawks are successful, there doesn't seem to be much that will compel them to change their approach, at least until Lynch and/or the defense begin to decline. So it won't just be next year, but possibly the next few years.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
Hey gang, let's see what I can get to during a lunch break here. I've read the additions to the thread to this point and see a lot of great discussion on certain players, so maybe I should chime in with my thoughts on these guys specifically first.
I'll start with Blackmon, then Shorts in the next post since they are team mates and subjects of some questioning as to my rankings and then a lot of subsequent discussion. The questioning of my rankings for both guys was absolutely expected by the way.
Blackmon -- He was a man among boys in college and absolutely deserved to be drafted 5th overall by JAC, and if they hadn't done so someone else would have traded up to that spot or taken him very soon thereafter. He's one of those elite talents, future stud NFL players, that I was talking about in Post #40 that you simply can't wait on or run away from because of his quarterback.
Fact is, anyone who owns him will tell you: if you don't have him by now you've already waited too long without paying a king's ransom. He had 5 or more catches in 6 of his last 7 games (6 or more in his last 4 games) of his rookie year with Henne, and in 2013 if Gabbert doesn't show in one big fat hurry that he gets it and can hold the job and produce with Blackmon, Henne will be in there again in short order.
There's no way I'm paying one bit of attention to the 'Gabbert sucks so I won't rank Blackmon high' crowd. All I can do is shake my head in disbelief at their limited thinking. Blackmon is a bona fide stud and possible future HoFer IMO, every bit as talented (or more so) as the guys I have him ranked near. Those of you who are not believers, cool, I will respect your right to disagree, and we'll see how it plays out. But no way am I dropping him out of that second tier or entertaining any arguments to do so. I've already drunk the Blackmon Kool Aid. By the end of this season I may be laughing at myself for not having had the savvy to put him in Tier 1.
I'll start with Blackmon, then Shorts in the next post since they are team mates and subjects of some questioning as to my rankings and then a lot of subsequent discussion. The questioning of my rankings for both guys was absolutely expected by the way.
Blackmon -- He was a man among boys in college and absolutely deserved to be drafted 5th overall by JAC, and if they hadn't done so someone else would have traded up to that spot or taken him very soon thereafter. He's one of those elite talents, future stud NFL players, that I was talking about in Post #40 that you simply can't wait on or run away from because of his quarterback.
Fact is, anyone who owns him will tell you: if you don't have him by now you've already waited too long without paying a king's ransom. He had 5 or more catches in 6 of his last 7 games (6 or more in his last 4 games) of his rookie year with Henne, and in 2013 if Gabbert doesn't show in one big fat hurry that he gets it and can hold the job and produce with Blackmon, Henne will be in there again in short order.
There's no way I'm paying one bit of attention to the 'Gabbert sucks so I won't rank Blackmon high' crowd. All I can do is shake my head in disbelief at their limited thinking. Blackmon is a bona fide stud and possible future HoFer IMO, every bit as talented (or more so) as the guys I have him ranked near. Those of you who are not believers, cool, I will respect your right to disagree, and we'll see how it plays out. But no way am I dropping him out of that second tier or entertaining any arguments to do so. I've already drunk the Blackmon Kool Aid. By the end of this season I may be laughing at myself for not having had the savvy to put him in Tier 1.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
Eat my Shorts. OK I'm an idiot, but I couldn't pass up the chance to say that for some reason.
On Shorts -- lots of discussion in this thread and others about him, and deservedly so. Let's start with the admission that I've had him a lot higher in my rankings earlier this offseason. But then I thought some more, got uncomfortable keeping him there, and dropped him down. Maybe too far. And maybe I'll move him up again.
On one hand, he was a 4th round pick drafted to be a backup on a crappy offensive team. On the other hand, when Laurent Robinson with his big expensive new contract went down for the count with concussions Shorts in his second year grabbed the job by the balls and produced like a wild man. On the other OTHER hand, he had two concussions in the space of 3 weeks in December and went on IR to end his season. That last point is huge huge huge.
So how do we evaluate all that, plus the fact that MJD will return and they will run more, plus the fact that Blackmon is the stud WR on this team (my opinion of course) ... and then how do we rank Cecil?
We know he's earned and will keep the starting job, so that is no longer a hurdle. EBF went to some trouble posting some outstanding production / target data and there can be no question that Shorts was one amazing guy last year. But what if... (I can hear the screams now from the Shorts crowd) ... what if some of what happened last year was a fluke? Shorts was never thought of as an elite player capable of the 17.8 YPC over 55 catches he had last year. What if his one catch for 80 yards in Week 3 had gone for 20 yards after being tripped up instead? What if some of the other long gainers were flukes? What if he never has anything like that number of big plays going forward and he's just a 50-700-5 (14.0 YPC) guy? Do I believe that? Well, no, not completely. I do think his talent is legit, though not 17.8 YPC legit (that's just unsustainable and history will show it to anyone who wants to look). But the possibility gnaws the back of my mind that maybe we're buying into too short a track record too readily with him.
What does worry me big time, and what does have me dropping him in the rankings, are two things:
(1) He's the teammate of a guy I believe is elite and will be the focal point of a non-elite passing game, leaving much less to Shorts than if he were the top guy, and...
(2) This is the biggie -- the concussion issue. The current NFL environment is one in which the word 'concussion' is dreaded and feared, zillion dollar lawsuits are pending, Chicken Littles are predicting the downfall of the league because of it, Jahvid Best can't get cleared by anyone to return more than a year after his last concussion, Austin Collie can't find work, Laurent Robinson so far can't find work. Teams are just running like hell from any player with concussion history. And Shorts had 2 of them in 3 weeks in December and went on IR. Is he one hit away from being out for the year, or for his career? Are you willing to rank him in the 20s for dynasty, taking that chance, only to see his value become zilch in a second? Yeah, that worries me a lot. And that's why he's my WR49 in these rankings, at the the top of the "downside risk" tier. Maybe I'm too cautious, and if you want the extra risk, move him up in your personal rankings. Maybe I'll soften the position and move him up closer to where his talent and production would warrant. I'm not sure yet. But anyway, agree or disagree, now you hopefully at least understand why I have him where I have him.
On Shorts -- lots of discussion in this thread and others about him, and deservedly so. Let's start with the admission that I've had him a lot higher in my rankings earlier this offseason. But then I thought some more, got uncomfortable keeping him there, and dropped him down. Maybe too far. And maybe I'll move him up again.
On one hand, he was a 4th round pick drafted to be a backup on a crappy offensive team. On the other hand, when Laurent Robinson with his big expensive new contract went down for the count with concussions Shorts in his second year grabbed the job by the balls and produced like a wild man. On the other OTHER hand, he had two concussions in the space of 3 weeks in December and went on IR to end his season. That last point is huge huge huge.
So how do we evaluate all that, plus the fact that MJD will return and they will run more, plus the fact that Blackmon is the stud WR on this team (my opinion of course) ... and then how do we rank Cecil?
We know he's earned and will keep the starting job, so that is no longer a hurdle. EBF went to some trouble posting some outstanding production / target data and there can be no question that Shorts was one amazing guy last year. But what if... (I can hear the screams now from the Shorts crowd) ... what if some of what happened last year was a fluke? Shorts was never thought of as an elite player capable of the 17.8 YPC over 55 catches he had last year. What if his one catch for 80 yards in Week 3 had gone for 20 yards after being tripped up instead? What if some of the other long gainers were flukes? What if he never has anything like that number of big plays going forward and he's just a 50-700-5 (14.0 YPC) guy? Do I believe that? Well, no, not completely. I do think his talent is legit, though not 17.8 YPC legit (that's just unsustainable and history will show it to anyone who wants to look). But the possibility gnaws the back of my mind that maybe we're buying into too short a track record too readily with him.
What does worry me big time, and what does have me dropping him in the rankings, are two things:
(1) He's the teammate of a guy I believe is elite and will be the focal point of a non-elite passing game, leaving much less to Shorts than if he were the top guy, and...
(2) This is the biggie -- the concussion issue. The current NFL environment is one in which the word 'concussion' is dreaded and feared, zillion dollar lawsuits are pending, Chicken Littles are predicting the downfall of the league because of it, Jahvid Best can't get cleared by anyone to return more than a year after his last concussion, Austin Collie can't find work, Laurent Robinson so far can't find work. Teams are just running like hell from any player with concussion history. And Shorts had 2 of them in 3 weeks in December and went on IR. Is he one hit away from being out for the year, or for his career? Are you willing to rank him in the 20s for dynasty, taking that chance, only to see his value become zilch in a second? Yeah, that worries me a lot. And that's why he's my WR49 in these rankings, at the the top of the "downside risk" tier. Maybe I'm too cautious, and if you want the extra risk, move him up in your personal rankings. Maybe I'll soften the position and move him up closer to where his talent and production would warrant. I'm not sure yet. But anyway, agree or disagree, now you hopefully at least understand why I have him where I have him.
Last edited by a moderator:
I view it as a lateral move. Fewer targets, but the targets he will get will be much higher-leverage. Mostly, though, when I rank players, I don't get into the nitty-gritty of multi-year projections. When I see Percy Harvin, I see an elite talent playing in an elite offense for a team that traded huge draft value to acquire him and paid massive money to make him happy. All that adds up to elite value. He might get 80/1200 receiving, he might get 110/1100. He might get 400 yards rushing, he might only get 100. He might be a deep threat, he might be a red-zone threat, he might operate out of the slot or split wide. I don't know the details, but I do know I sure like that combination of talent, team, age, and commitment.
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
The next guy I was going to discuss is Harvin, for he also is the subject of much discussion in this thread. SSOG has saved me a lot of typing because we are on exactly the same wave length with this guy. One could argue he might not deserve to be in my Tier 1 maybe, that Tier 2 or lower is where they'd put him due to his malcontent rep he's started to develop, but I'd argue he was absolutely right to complain when he did that he was being mis-used and under-used, and dum dum HC Frazier finally admitted that was true. After that he started putting up Calvin-like stats. Then Harvin wormed his way out of town, away from Ponder and to a much better team and QB (and $$$). Another good career move. So, malcontent or not, it worked and he got what he wanted. His production has been startling, as SSOG mentioned, nearly on par with Calvin for a good stretch. His floor in PPR seems to me to be about as high as anyone's. I'm not worried about going to a team that didn't pass a lot last year or that has Rice/Tate/Z Miller. The pie will get bigger. HC Carroll has said more than once this offseason he's turning Wilson loose a lot more going forward. And Harvin's share of the pie will be commensurate with his elite gamebreaking skills. I believe he will get the ball downfield more, as other have said, than noodle-armed dump off Ponder could manage. Rice will get somewhat less, Tate will get a lot less, and Z Miller was non-existent until the playoffs anyway. I don't foresee a drop off of production for Harvin due to his team change. I love what SSOG said at the end of his post and will repeat it: "I don't know the details, but I do know I sure like that combination of talent, team, age, and commitment."
Last edited by a moderator:
laughinboy_2000
Footballguy
Bruce, wondering what your thoughts are on WVA Stedman Bailey? Guys stats last year were MORE than Madden like.
- 25 TDs
- 5 games with at least 11+ catches
- 1 300 yard receiving game
- 2 200 yard receiving game
He also had the more TDs than any other WR in the nation, 2nd in the nation in catches, and third in the nation in yards. What is more impressive is that he battled Tavon Austin for catches, yards, etc. My question for everyone is was this a result of the system that was ran at WVA? Maybe the competition? I loved what I saw out of this guy this year and can see him going within the first two rounds?
Thoughts?
- 25 TDs
- 5 games with at least 11+ catches
- 1 300 yard receiving game
- 2 200 yard receiving game
He also had the more TDs than any other WR in the nation, 2nd in the nation in catches, and third in the nation in yards. What is more impressive is that he battled Tavon Austin for catches, yards, etc. My question for everyone is was this a result of the system that was ran at WVA? Maybe the competition? I loved what I saw out of this guy this year and can see him going within the first two rounds?
Thoughts?
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
Thanks for taking the time to write a thoughtful response.
The concussion stuff is a legitimate red flag. All the youth and talent in the world won't matter if you can't stay on the field. Jahvid is a great example of that. On the other hand, I'm not sure all concussions are created equal. The beginning of the end for Best was an epic blow to the head that had the whole stadium hushed for minutes. I'm no doctor, but maybe the severity of that concussion was the key variable. A less catastrophic concussion might not have such an impact on future vulnerability. With Shorts, maybe he was rushed back too quickly from the first one. What's encouraging in my opinion is that he'll have an entire offseason free of contact to recover. And then you have guys like Boldin getting destroyed in sickening fashion only to bounce back symptom free for years. Not everyone who takes a bad lick or two is going to end up like Collie or Best.
Even if you assume that he has something like a 50% chance of being knocked out permanently, 49 still seems really low given how good he looked last year. And a bit inconsistent considering that a guy like Alexander who has severe durability questions in his own right is ranked at 25. Putting the injuries aside and just looking at Shorts as an NFL player, I think he's right in the mix with guys like Decker, Nelson, Torrey, A Brown, Garcon, Stevie, Wright, Maclin, Moore, and Hopkins. Probably better than most of those guys. I don't think the fluke argument would have as much traction if he had simply been a higher draft pick. He was effective week in and week out with spotty QB play and looked the part of a quality player to me. I think we're looking at more of a Donald Driver/Miles Austin/TJ Housh and less of a Drew Bennett one-off type of player.
I own Blackmon in three leagues and have always been a fan of his game. I wouldn't trade him for Shorts, but in a lot of ways Shorts was more impressive last season. That's reflected in the stats to some extent with Shorts having the better DVOA rating by a pretty wide margin, a better conversion rate, and more yards on fewer targets (979 on 109 versus 865 on 132 for Blackmon). Blackmon has the excuse of being a rookie and he seemed to improve a lot once Henne took the reins, but I'm not sure the talent gap is quite as wide as most would think.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
On Harvin:
You can make a good case for him as high as he is.
But I dumped him last year and I don't regret it yet. The guy just seems wonky to me, and for me, that translates to extra risk. Those migraines or whatever they are could show up again at any time. I know he says the issue is resolved, but as I recall he's said that in the past. Then there is the simple fact that that Minnesota gave up on trying to make him happy. That tells me something. Minnesota NEEDs a guy with Harvin's talents in the worst way, but they just didn't have it in them to find a way to keep him. Why?
He's a great talent, and when he's out there and engaged, I believe he will produce. I just wonder what percentage of the time he will be out there and engaged.
You can make a good case for him as high as he is.
But I dumped him last year and I don't regret it yet. The guy just seems wonky to me, and for me, that translates to extra risk. Those migraines or whatever they are could show up again at any time. I know he says the issue is resolved, but as I recall he's said that in the past. Then there is the simple fact that that Minnesota gave up on trying to make him happy. That tells me something. Minnesota NEEDs a guy with Harvin's talents in the worst way, but they just didn't have it in them to find a way to keep him. Why?
He's a great talent, and when he's out there and engaged, I believe he will produce. I just wonder what percentage of the time he will be out there and engaged.
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
On Roethlisberger -- EBF and Thriftyrocker expressed disagreement, and I'm sure others do as well. At QB19 he's the first one listed in my "Vets with extra downside risk" tier. I also have him well below my FBG dynasty rankings peers, so I'm clearly the outlier here and I'm fine with that. Ben was QB11 or so on a points-per-game basis last year, and that's about where a lot of people view him now.Here's the deal. There's a lot I don't like when looking forward. While he was about QB11 in PPG, with games missed due to injury he was about QB21 (depending on scoring system), and I view him as one of the likeliest QBs to miss significant time to injury in the future. Some will argue injuries aren't predictable, and while that may be true with RB and WR, with a QB I think playing style is a big factor. We know for example Vick's style gets him hurt. And with Ben, who has had ONE 16-game season in his 9-year career, the fact is he stands and stands and waits and waits and holds off pass rushers to buy time to get an open receiver. While admirable, it gets him beat up. As he ages, that will matter more and more. His OL is not what it has been, his WR corps is deplorable, and I see him being less healthy standing up to pass rushers as time goes on.And now let's talk about that surrounding cast. WTF is going on in Pittsburgh these days anyway? This used to be an exemplary organization, front office and coaching staff (aka the Cowher days). It seems that since Rooney went off to be Ambassador to wherever and Tomlin has had a bigger say in things, the Steelers have been on a slow at first but now accelerating decline. They are tight against the salary cap, the overall talent on the team has deteriorated because they hung onto oldsters too long and paid them too much in their twilight years, Ben has crap to throw to, and now they look to me to be a 5 or 6 win team for the next couple years at least.The WRs. Oh man. If a 26 year old QB had a bad WR corps I could be more patient with a ranking, but Ben is 31. It will take at least 2 years for him to have decent overall talent to throw to. IMO Antonio Brown is just an OK possession guy but nothing special at all, Emmanuel Sanders is continually dinged up and just a guy when healthy (and still may be lost to NE if they are strategizing an offer sheet signing for when PIT is most vulnerable under the cap), and after that they have 136 year old Plax (OK, "only" 36) and crotchety Cotchery who they would have cut by now if they had any talent at all behind him. But they don't -- just UDFAs Moye, Moore, Reed, and Gilreath on the roster. Who? Exactly. There's the draft, sure, but they need to use their 1st rounder on defense, and after that there's no promise the guy they get in round 2+ will be useful until year 2 or 3 or ever. They didn't want to pay Wallace long term but kept him around on the franchise tag instead of trading him and addressing the position last year. This is a front office in disarray, has a WR corps about as bad as any in the league and refuses to address it in free agency, and Ben is a statue of a QB who is going to get killed waiting for AARP guys like Plax and Cotchery to get open.So Ben is ranked QB19 for dynasty. You can have him, I don't want him any higher.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
On Decker v. Patterson --
There's been some back-and-forth on this so I'll address it here. Decker is a fine player, benefits greatly by P Manning coming on board last year, and should continue to be a useful fantasy player. However, he's not a superstar by any means, plays 2nd fiddle to Demaryius Thomas indefinitely,and now there's a 3rd mouth to feed in Welker. That last fact can't be ignored or dismissed, and to pretend it won't affect Decker's stats negatively is burying your head in the sand.
Rookie Patterson will be drafted in the top half of the 1st round probably, is the consensus best WR in this draft class, and if all goes well is a future WR1. Of course there are no guarantees, but once again I refer back to my post #40 -- you can't choose moderately above average guys like Decker over potential stars like Patterson and expect to ever have more than a mediocre fantasy team. I don't care if Patterson is not a "Mathlete." Neither is Dez Bryant and he's a pretty good football player. Finley GB is an absolute moron but can play too.
Look, it's personal preference, but I choose upside when it comes to a 1st round talent over a 3rd round decent producer. The discussion would have been more interesting and debatable had Welker not joined Denver, but at this point Decker v. Patterson isn't even debatable IMO.
By the way, I don't think I'm being inconsistent talking about Patterson's upside while pushing the Bryce Browns or Robert Turbins or Ben Tates of the world down my list. To me there's a Grand Canyon of difference between a 1st round potential star and a backup who 'might' get a chance to become a starter 'someday.'
There's been some back-and-forth on this so I'll address it here. Decker is a fine player, benefits greatly by P Manning coming on board last year, and should continue to be a useful fantasy player. However, he's not a superstar by any means, plays 2nd fiddle to Demaryius Thomas indefinitely,and now there's a 3rd mouth to feed in Welker. That last fact can't be ignored or dismissed, and to pretend it won't affect Decker's stats negatively is burying your head in the sand.
Rookie Patterson will be drafted in the top half of the 1st round probably, is the consensus best WR in this draft class, and if all goes well is a future WR1. Of course there are no guarantees, but once again I refer back to my post #40 -- you can't choose moderately above average guys like Decker over potential stars like Patterson and expect to ever have more than a mediocre fantasy team. I don't care if Patterson is not a "Mathlete." Neither is Dez Bryant and he's a pretty good football player. Finley GB is an absolute moron but can play too.
Look, it's personal preference, but I choose upside when it comes to a 1st round talent over a 3rd round decent producer. The discussion would have been more interesting and debatable had Welker not joined Denver, but at this point Decker v. Patterson isn't even debatable IMO.
By the way, I don't think I'm being inconsistent talking about Patterson's upside while pushing the Bryce Browns or Robert Turbins or Ben Tates of the world down my list. To me there's a Grand Canyon of difference between a 1st round potential star and a backup who 'might' get a chance to become a starter 'someday.'
Last edited by a moderator:
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
I have to go off and do stuff. Not sure if I'll get back to this thread again tonight or not.
JWB, your post on last year's discussion has been especially noted and I'm mulling the topic -- again. Always a tricky subject for me to wrap my brain around and reply to in a way that makes sense, but one that deserves something well thought out.
Replies on the QBs (Kaep, Wilson) to come at some point. Ditto the Mendy, Stewart, McFadden topic. Ditto the 'upside' backup RBs listed too low topic. Ditto old P Manning, and Vernon Davis, and Mallett, Lacy, TE Myers, JWB's too high/too low post, Gawain's TE stuff, and whatever else I might have missed.
Thanks to everyone who has been inspired to read/comment.
JWB, your post on last year's discussion has been especially noted and I'm mulling the topic -- again. Always a tricky subject for me to wrap my brain around and reply to in a way that makes sense, but one that deserves something well thought out.
Replies on the QBs (Kaep, Wilson) to come at some point. Ditto the Mendy, Stewart, McFadden topic. Ditto the 'upside' backup RBs listed too low topic. Ditto old P Manning, and Vernon Davis, and Mallett, Lacy, TE Myers, JWB's too high/too low post, Gawain's TE stuff, and whatever else I might have missed.
Thanks to everyone who has been inspired to read/comment.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
finally got an opportunity to look more in depth with these rankings. really like what i see here bruce and i don't see too much difference with my own opinions on many of these guys. great work.
thanks for doing this.
thanks for doing this.
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
By the way, just a random thought. If I had to stick my neck out right now and predict a starter in JAC for opening week, it would be Henne. And unless I have a change of heart my next rankings will probably have Henne just below Sanchez and Gabbert dropped to one spot below Henne. Not an earth shaking deal, but just in case you care there it is.
EBF
Footballguy
A guy like Bryce Brown is tough to peg because he wasn't a high pick and he wasn't widely considered an elite prospect coming out of college, but he made a roster, won the primary backup job, and flashed major potential in limited duty. 115 carries for 564 yards (4.9 YPC) is pretty nice from a 223 pound back who clocked 4.48 at his pro day. If you change one variable (his draft position) from 7th round to 2nd or 3rd round, he's probably commanding huge dynasty value. So what's more relevant at this point? That he slipped in the draft or that he looked like a day one pick as a rookie?
I often cite draft position as an important variable, especially for players who haven't played much. On the other hand, it becomes less relevant the more that you see a player in the NFL. Alfred Morris is an obvious example. Bryce Brown is trickier because the sample size is smaller. It would be tough to take him ahead of someone like Lacy who might go in the first round, but in my opinion he's already accomplished what guys like Franklin/Ellington/Randle/Ball/Bell can only hope to achieve: earn playing time and perform well. The fact that he's already demonstrated some degree of competence would be enough for me to move him ahead of players who haven't done so and aren't considered can't-miss talents in their own right. Same with Pierce. They've already cleared one major hurdle by getting on the field and looking reasonably good.
That said, it's always difficult to strike the right balance between being too reactive and too rigid. For example, do you take Josh Gordon over Michael Floyd? Floyd was unanimously rated as a first round talent and a superior prospect. Gordon had a better rookie year. On the other hand, Gordon was thrust into an immediate starting job whereas Floyd had his opportunities restricted by two solid veterans (and historically bad QB play). If you flipped their teams, Floyd probably would've had a better rookie year. So which is really the more valuable dynasty commodity? There's no easy answer and that's why dynasty rankings can be so difficult. When you're dealing with unknown commodities, you're juggling a lot of variables.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
Oh ya another thing re Ben and his receiving corps... he also has most likely lost his security blanket TE Heath Miller to the PUP list for the first part of the season because of his late 2012 ACL tear, and who knows how well the 31 year old TE will come back when he does make it back. Backup TE Paulsen is a nobody 7th rounder who isn't much of a pass catcher. So, another hole in Ben's pass catching corps.
I also didn't mention the RBs, another area that is filled with backups -- Dwyer and Redman scare no one, and if they bring in Bradshaw (probably their best option), he's walking wounded because of the foot. They also have kicked the tires on Beanie Wells, another injury risk. Then there's Chris Rainey they drafted last year--- oops, GONE! Now that guy's a winner, huh? Just another feather in the cap of the Steelers front office these days. What a mess.
I also didn't mention the RBs, another area that is filled with backups -- Dwyer and Redman scare no one, and if they bring in Bradshaw (probably their best option), he's walking wounded because of the foot. They also have kicked the tires on Beanie Wells, another injury risk. Then there's Chris Rainey they drafted last year--- oops, GONE! Now that guy's a winner, huh? Just another feather in the cap of the Steelers front office these days. What a mess.
Last edited by a moderator:
CalBear
Footballguy
Actually I think Gonzalez seems low (as does Davis). Below the top 7-8 TEs you're looking at replacement-level players; one year of a potential top-3 is worth more than the entire career of a replacement-level player.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
1st off, I love the rankings and give anyone credit for doing them... even if it seems we just call people out on them it still takes lots of work to put together.
On the QBs, I find it interesting that Locker is rated w/ Geno Smith and Cutler while Ponder is rated much lower, even lower than about 3 other rookie QBs and the likes of Palmer / Flynn. I'm taking it that after last season your done w/ Ponder while you still have hope for the unknown of what Locker could be with a full healthy season, does that seem correct?
and on a side note, I would take those rookie QBs over the likes of Palmer / Flynn and hope to catch lighting in a bottle
On the QBs, I find it interesting that Locker is rated w/ Geno Smith and Cutler while Ponder is rated much lower, even lower than about 3 other rookie QBs and the likes of Palmer / Flynn. I'm taking it that after last season your done w/ Ponder while you still have hope for the unknown of what Locker could be with a full healthy season, does that seem correct?
and on a side note, I would take those rookie QBs over the likes of Palmer / Flynn and hope to catch lighting in a bottle
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Disagree with this. In these rankings, Gonzalez is ranked higher than guys like Vernon Davis, Gates, Housler, Myers, Cameron, and Bennett. You are saying that 2013 from Gonzalez is worth more than the rest of each of their careers. No way.
pghrob
Footballguy
Bruce, thanks for all the work you put into these rankings. I see you have Eagles TE James Casey ranked as the 101st rb and do not have him in your te rankings. If the Eagles and Chip Kelley plan on using him as an hback does that preclude him from being ranked with te's? I see you have Celek rated at te20. Early reports of Casey signing with Eagles brought conjecture that Kelley was intrigued with him and some people mentioned a similar role to Hernandez ala Pats. Curious if you could cross walk the 101st rb ranking to a te ranking for Casey. Thanks again for all you did to share this great info with us.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Gonzo + replacement could very well be worth more than those guys, most of whom are only replacement level players. Gonzo won leagues last year at a very high rate. I wouldn't pass that up to get a few more years of top 8-12 TE production.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Dunno, I can see it both ways. According to Gonzo, he's 100% done this year. So you have one year of what you must ASSUME will be solid stat wise.
Compare that to Davis, who obviously has the talent to produce at the same level if the situation presented itself. Will that situation present itself again before he retires (say over the next 7 or 8 years, which would make him the same age as Gonzo is now)? I really don't know, but I wouldn't think the odds are THAT bad.
His stock has rightfully taken a SEVERE beating, but as late as early last year he was regarded as an upper echelon option. He's the same guy he was and has athleticism only Calvin Johnson can rival. For me, I'd rather have a SHOT at that for 2 or 3 or 4 years than ONE year of Gonzo, as great as he is.
I think it's ironic that people had written Gonzo off a couple of years ago after a brutal year, and now here we are comparing him to another guy coming off of a brutal year that folks are now writing off.
Personally, I'd pass on Gates though. Unlike Davis, he is NOT the same guy that put up those great years.
Last edited by a moderator:
I think Gonzo is just about right. On the one hand, conceptually, in a weak TE crop like this, I could see an elite 1-year rental being worth a ton, relatively- as high as 6th or 7th, even. On the other hand, I think Gonzo is a much riskier bet than some seem to think. Yes, he was phenomenal last year, but we're quickly entering "no one except for Jerry Rice..." territory, age-wise. Father Time eventually catches up to everyone. There is a not at all insignificant chance that he managed to finally run down Gonzo. Add those together, and a ranking in the early teens seems reasonable. If some of the names behind Gonzo seem fishy, it's because those names are too low, not because Gonzo is too high.
CalBear
Footballguy
Gates turns 33 in June. Vernon Davis is also underrated. The rest are replacement-level players.
Brandon Will
Footballguy
Bump Finley. With Jennings and Driver gone especially. I see the defenses focusing a lot more on Cobb and Nelson than I do Finley.
He's gonna surprise this year. Don't believe me just watch
He's gonna surprise this year. Don't believe me just watch
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
Guys, I've been out and am getting home late. No time to say much. But I need to address the Vernon Davis situation. I simply messed up. I was moving both Davises around, was tired, put Fred Davis at #18 where I wanted him, then for some inexplicable reason (did I mention tired?) put Vernon at #18 in Fred's spot instead of #13 where I meant to put him. This moved Fred and everyone through Gresham up one spot too many. It should be like this after the next update (barring deliberate decisions to make other changes):
13 Davis, Vernon SF
14 Gresham, Jermaine CIN15 Gonzalez, Tony ATL16 Pettigrew, Brandon DET17 Daniels, Owen HOU18 Davis, Fred WAS
I do have concerns about his severe and immediate drop off when Kaep took over for A Smith that lasted for the rest of the regular season, the addition of Boldin taking away more of the short-to-intermediate passes, the distinct possibility SF drafts Ertz from Stanford, and that Harbaugh may have been getting sick of Davis complaining about his role the second half of last year. Davis did bounce back in a big way though with two great games in the NFC championship and Super Bowl.
My gut says he doesn't belong in the tier above any longer which concludes with Fleener, but #13 at the start of the next tier feels right. Maybe at #13 he is still too low for some tastes, but #18 was never the plan. Sorry for the mistake.
13 Davis, Vernon SF
14 Gresham, Jermaine CIN15 Gonzalez, Tony ATL16 Pettigrew, Brandon DET17 Daniels, Owen HOU18 Davis, Fred WAS
I do have concerns about his severe and immediate drop off when Kaep took over for A Smith that lasted for the rest of the regular season, the addition of Boldin taking away more of the short-to-intermediate passes, the distinct possibility SF drafts Ertz from Stanford, and that Harbaugh may have been getting sick of Davis complaining about his role the second half of last year. Davis did bounce back in a big way though with two great games in the NFC championship and Super Bowl.
My gut says he doesn't belong in the tier above any longer which concludes with Fleener, but #13 at the start of the next tier feels right. Maybe at #13 he is still too low for some tastes, but #18 was never the plan. Sorry for the mistake.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bruce Hammond
Footballguy
Finley is as high at TE10 as I can trust him. He's a head case, says things to alienate his QB and HC, was nearly not brought back this year, and there's a good chance he's gone after the season with destination unknown. He fell off the map for awhile last year even with Jennings hurt because he was dropping balls and lost Rodgers' trust. Could easily happen again.
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ah in PPR Cobb becomes a more attractive WR, in standard leagues, which is the way FBGs used to do projections/rankings and the way I was viewing them, I think Nelson has more TD and yardage potential than Cobb and why I think he will outscore Cobb in that format in the short term. In PPR they are closer and I can see that working in Cobbs favor coupled with the age difference.On Cobb -- what's not to like? Ignoring Week 17 (which I usually like to do), he was WR14 last year in PPR which is what FBG and my dynasty rankings are using, catching 80 balls on 104 targets in his first year starting, and he's just a baby turning 23 in August. His QB is in his prime years, Jennings is out of the picture, Finley will likely be gone in another year. Jordy and Cobb have somewhat dissimilar roles with Cobb lining up all over the place and is expected to get loads of receptions. I'm not sure why he'd have any more injury risk than any other WR, he played 15 games. He's going to be Aaron Rodgers' version of Wes Welker for a long time, and I am a big buyer of that.Nice work tater! I did not know you were such a fan of pink.
I disagree with those saying that Matt Ryan is ranked too high. Have you seen the weapons he has to work with? Sure when Gonzo and White retire Ryans numbers may take a hit but I would not be surprised if this group stays together for the next 2 seasons. I realize Gonzo has said he will for sure retire after this season but I have heard that before. Gonzo is becoming the Michael Myers of TEs. He just keeps going no matter what you do to him.
I disagree with Peterson being in tier 2. I think he blows all RB away for the next 2 seasons. When he turns 30 he may return to the stratosphere somewhat but even then I like his chances to score more than the guys you have ahead of him. Of course I may be wearing purple hued glasses.
I thought Cobb was a bit high. I would rather have Nelson than Cobb. Both have injury issues. I like the high ranking for Gordon.
EBF has become a bit of a broke record on the McFadden - Stewart - Mendenhall arguments. I think most of us know how he feels about these players by now.I agree with him that McFad is ranked too high but I could see the other 2 lower as well.
Thanks for sharing!
That pretty much explains the difference in opinion right there. I seem to becoming one of the few remnants of a dying breed who prefers not using PPR because it is such a flawed way of scoring/form of valuation. This leads to rankings that do not mirror how I view a players real value the way a standard ranking would.
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
For the most part I agree with you. However Nelsons issues with Hamstring and the other minor dings seem to be recurring problems that could be so again. While I will not usually project injuries it would be blind to overlook that Nelson has missed several games due to minor injuries in more than one season already in his still somewhat young career.
Year Week NFL Team Injury Status Injury2009 7 Green Bay Packers Out knee2009 8 Green Bay Packers Out knee2009 9 Green Bay Packers Out knee2009 10 Green Bay Packers Probable knee2010 14 Green Bay Packers Probable ankle2012 8 Green Bay Packers Questionable hamstring2012 9 Green Bay Packers Questionable hamstring2012 11 Green Bay Packers Probable hamstring/foot2012 14 Green Bay Packers Out hamstring2012 15 Green Bay Packers Out hamstring2012 16 Green Bay Packers Out hamstring2012 17 Green Bay Packers Probable hamstring2012 18 Green Bay Packers Probable knee2012 19 Green Bay Packers Probable ankleRead more: http://www.kffl.com/player/18256/nfl/injury_history/jordy-nelson#ixzz2Q3k3LCekhttp://www.kffl.com/player/18256/nfl/injury_history/jordy-nelson
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1454926-jordy-nelsons-injury-textbook-case-of-the-hamstrings-threatens-his-playoffs
Similar threads
