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Couch Potato 2013 Offseason Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

There's no way I'm paying one bit of attention to the 'Gabbert sucks so I won't rank Blackmon high' crowd. All I can do is shake my head in disbelief at their limited thinking.
Good responses. I did ask if Blackmon's production came with Henne, but didn't mean to imply that should affect his dynasty value. It just sounds like people are extrapolating his 2012 finish out to 2013. You've actually convinced me to give Blackmon a little more attention in drafts this year. He's one of several guys that I have an uneasy feel about in redrafts. Definitely looking forward to hearing some 2013 discussion on him when the spotlight threads come out.

I get where you guys are coming from on the Harvin dynasty value, but he sure does have a high price for a guy with so many question marks. He should have played more snaps with the Vikings, but even with his limited snaps, he still saw a ton of action when he was on the field. I fear that will be hard to replicate. Given that he misses a bit of time makes that even more iffy. If this makes sense, I agree with his approximate ranking, but when push comes to shove and it is my auction dollars, I'm pretty certain I'd pass on him.

 
On Roethlisberger -- EBF and Thriftyrocker expressed disagreement, and I'm sure others do as well. At QB19 he's the first one listed in my "Vets with extra downside risk" tier. I also have him well below my FBG dynasty rankings peers, so I'm clearly the outlier here and I'm fine with that. Ben was QB11 or so on a points-per-game basis last year, and that's about where a lot of people view him now.Here's the deal. There's a lot I don't like when looking forward. While he was about QB11 in PPG, with games missed due to injury he was about QB21 (depending on scoring system), and I view him as one of the likeliest QBs to miss significant time to injury in the future. Some will argue injuries aren't predictable, and while that may be true with RB and WR, with a QB I think playing style is a big factor. We know for example Vick's style gets him hurt. And with Ben, who has had ONE 16-game season in his 9-year career, the fact is he stands and stands and waits and waits and holds off pass rushers to buy time to get an open receiver. While admirable, it gets him beat up. As he ages, that will matter more and more. His OL is not what it has been, his WR corps is deplorable, and I see him being less healthy standing up to pass rushers as time goes on.And now let's talk about that surrounding cast. WTF is going on in Pittsburgh these days anyway? This used to be an exemplary organization, front office and coaching staff (aka the Cowher days). It seems that since Rooney went off to be Ambassador to wherever and Tomlin has had a bigger say in things, the Steelers have been on a slow at first but now accelerating decline. They are tight against the salary cap, the overall talent on the team has deteriorated because they hung onto oldsters too long and paid them too much in their twilight years, Ben has crap to throw to, and now they look to me to be a 5 or 6 win team for the next couple years at least.The WRs. Oh man. If a 26 year old QB had a bad WR corps I could be more patient with a ranking, but Ben is 31. It will take at least 2 years for him to have decent overall talent to throw to. IMO Antonio Brown is just an OK possession guy but nothing special at all, Emmanuel Sanders is continually dinged up and just a guy when healthy (and still may be lost to NE if they are strategizing an offer sheet signing for when PIT is most vulnerable under the cap), and after that they have 136 year old Plax (OK, "only" 36) and crotchety Cotchery who they would have cut by now if they had any talent at all behind him. But they don't -- just UDFAs Moye, Moore, Reed, and Gilreath on the roster. Who? Exactly. There's the draft, sure, but they need to use their 1st rounder on defense, and after that there's no promise the guy they get in round 2+ will be useful until year 2 or 3 or ever. They didn't want to pay Wallace long term but kept him around on the franchise tag instead of trading him and addressing the position last year. This is a front office in disarray, has a WR corps about as bad as any in the league and refuses to address it in free agency, and Ben is a statue of a QB who is going to get killed waiting for AARP guys like Plax and Cotchery to get open.So Ben is ranked QB19 for dynasty. You can have him, I don't want him any higher.
I've been banging the drum for Roethlisberger for years, but I'm with Bruce 100% on this. He never again hit his top-5 upside, and the flood of QBs into the market means it's unlikely he ever will. That turns Roethlisberger into an Eli Manning type (talented, über-secure in his job, capable of churning out a lot of seasons as a low-end qb1 or high-end qb2), and most everyone knows where I stand on guys like that (I don't like them because you get killed when you start them, and you can trade for a guy with identical production but less security for pennies). Factor in all the huge red flags (age, play style, the devolution of the Pittsburgh offense), and I've cooled considerably on Roofles over the last year. Not a criticism of Roeth as a player- I still think he's a top5 QB in real football- just a commentary on the direction of his team and the state of the QB position today. Edit: in my original dynasty, Roeth is the only guy left on my team from the original startup draft. He's probably going to be on that team until he retires, but he's stuck behind Brees and now Kaepernick. Over the years, he's proven invaluable as a fill-in starter / security blanket (I've developed a lot of QB talent, and knowing I still have Roeth has given me a lot of flexibility to trade it away for players at other positions). At this point, though, that's all I view him as- a security blanket and phenomenal injury/bye fill-in. My days of rolling into the season with him atop my depth chart are behind me.
Bump Finley. With Jennings and Driver gone especially. I see the defenses focusing a lot more on Cobb and Nelson than I do Finley. He's gonna surprise this year. Don't believe me just watch
I'm also buying on Finley at that price. I don't think the defensive attention will make much difference (I think that aspect is largely overrated, because when teammates draw coverage, they also draw targets). Still, he's talented, and he's locked in with Rodgers for a while longer, which means he's a potential difference makers. At TE, potential difference makers trump reliable but unspectacular producers. In my main dynasty, I traded Finley away before last season, and I currently own both Olsen and Pitta. I'd trade either for Finley straight up in a heartbeat.
Nice work tater! I did not know you were such a fan of pink. :lol: I disagree with those saying that Matt Ryan is ranked too high. Have you seen the weapons he has to work with? Sure when Gonzo and White retire Ryans numbers may take a hit but I would not be surprised if this group stays together for the next 2 seasons. I realize Gonzo has said he will for sure retire after this season but I have heard that before. Gonzo is becoming the Michael Myers of TEs. He just keeps going no matter what you do to him. I disagree with Peterson being in tier 2. I think he blows all RB away for the next 2 seasons. When he turns 30 he may return to the stratosphere somewhat but even then I like his chances to score more than the guys you have ahead of him. Of course I may be wearing purple hued glasses. :homer: I thought Cobb was a bit high. I would rather have Nelson than Cobb. Both have injury issues. I like the high ranking for Gordon. EBF has become a bit of a broke record on the McFadden - Stewart - Mendenhall arguments. I think most of us know how he feels about these players by now. :grad: I agree with him that McFad is ranked too high but I could see the other 2 lower as well. Thanks for sharing!
On Cobb -- what's not to like? Ignoring Week 17 (which I usually like to do), he was WR14 last year in PPR which is what FBG and my dynasty rankings are using, catching 80 balls on 104 targets in his first year starting, and he's just a baby turning 23 in August. His QB is in his prime years, Jennings is out of the picture, Finley will likely be gone in another year. Jordy and Cobb have somewhat dissimilar roles with Cobb lining up all over the place and is expected to get loads of receptions. I'm not sure why he'd have any more injury risk than any other WR, he played 15 games. He's going to be Aaron Rodgers' version of Wes Welker for a long time, and I am a big buyer of that.
Ah in PPR Cobb becomes a more attractive WR, in standard leagues, which is the way FBGs used to do projections/rankings and the way I was viewing them, I think Nelson has more TD and yardage potential than Cobb and why I think he will outscore Cobb in that format in the short term. In PPR they are closer and I can see that working in Cobbs favor coupled with the age difference. That pretty much explains the difference in opinion right there. I seem to becoming one of the few remnants of a dying breed who prefers not using PPR because it is such a flawed way of scoring/form of valuation. This leads to rankings that do not mirror how I view a players real value the way a standard ranking would.
I'm right there with you on PPR. Never liked it. Never will. If you want a scoring variant I can get behind, I'd much prefer yardage-heavy.
 
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We know he's earned and will keep the starting job, so that is no longer a hurdle. EBF went to some trouble posting some outstanding production / target data and there can be no question that Shorts was one amazing guy last year. But what if... (I can hear the screams now from the Shorts crowd) ... what if some of what happened last year was a fluke? Shorts was never thought of as an elite player capable of the 17.8 YPC over 55 catches he had last year. What if his one catch for 80 yards in Week 3 had gone for 20 yards after being tripped up instead? What if some of the other long gainers were flukes? What if he never has anything like that number of big plays going forward and he's just a 50-700-5 (14.0 YPC) guy? Do I believe that? Well, no, not completely. I do think his talent is legit, though not 17.8 YPC legit (that's just unsustainable and history will show it to anyone who wants to look). But the possibility gnaws the back of my mind that maybe we're buying into too short a track record too readily with him.
When I see Cecil Shorts, I think of Victor Cruz. In 2011, Cruz had a number of fluky long TDs, and I saw a lot of rumblings that he would crash down to earth in 2012, because there was no way he could sustain his 18.7 YPC.

This proved true to some extent; a regression certainly occurred, particularly since Manning turned back into a pumpkin. However, that doesn't mean Cruz is less talented or dynamic. It just means that unrealistic expectations became more grounded.

Likewise, what matters to me aren't Shorts' numbers, but how he looked while accruing them.

Shorts looked pretty darn good.

 
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SSOG said:
I've been banging the drum for Roethlisberger for years, but I'm with Bruce 100% on this. He never again hit his top-5 upside, and the flood of QBs into the market means it's unlikely he ever will. That turns Roethlisberger into an Eli Manning type (talented, über-secure in his job, capable of churning out a lot of seasons as a low-end qb1 or high-end qb2), and most everyone knows where I stand on guys like that (I don't like them because you get killed when you start them, and you can trade for a guy with identical production but less security for pennies). Factor in all the huge red flags (age, play style, the devolution of the Pittsburgh offense), and I've cooled considerably on Roofles over the last year. Not a criticism of Roeth as a player- I still think he's a top5 QB in real football- just a commentary on the direction of his team and the state of the QB position today.

Edit: in my original dynasty, Roeth is the only guy left on my team from the original startup draft. He's probably going to be on that team until he retires, but he's stuck behind Brees and now Kaepernick. Over the years, he's proven invaluable as a fill-in starter / security blanket (I've developed a lot of QB talent, and knowing I still have Roeth has given me a lot of flexibility to trade it away for players at other positions). At this point, though, that's all I view him as- a security blanket and phenomenal injury/bye fill-in. My days of rolling into the season with him atop my depth chart are behind me.
Both of your criticisms on Ben are valid, but I don't think it justifies ranking him in a different tier than Rivers and Dalton. Of the QBs in tier 4 and 5 who is most likely to put up a top 5 season at any point in the future. Maybe none, but I would put money on Ben before most others.

Elite QBs can have career resurgences in their 30s, and he is still young enough that his situation in Y+2 or Y+3 could be dramatically different. It's even possible he could be on a different team by Y+2.

Would be interested in the identical QBs you could get for pennies. Some of them seem to be ranked ahead of Ben. Others like Palmer and Schaub score considerable less PPG than Ben.

I guess there's a question here though - is he on the edge of the abyss? Following McNabb it was pretty clear he was getting there. He got older, fatter, and more hurt. Possibly lazier too. Is Ben that, or is he Warner, Favre, an elite HOF QB? If he's elite he can weather the storm and should be ranked higher. If he's a bum, yah, sure, we should swap him for Dalton.

I guess no one is arguing he's a QB2 at this point. Just if he's the same as Eli (which he is) then why is he a tier and 6 spots lower. Eli has similar durability issues, really. He doesn't miss games, but sometimes his arm does.

Not to quibble minor differences in opinion.

 
SSOG said:
I've been banging the drum for Roethlisberger for years, but I'm with Bruce 100% on this. He never again hit his top-5 upside, and the flood of QBs into the market means it's unlikely he ever will. That turns Roethlisberger into an Eli Manning type (talented, über-secure in his job, capable of churning out a lot of seasons as a low-end qb1 or high-end qb2), and most everyone knows where I stand on guys like that (I don't like them because you get killed when you start them, and you can trade for a guy with identical production but less security for pennies). Factor in all the huge red flags (age, play style, the devolution of the Pittsburgh offense), and I've cooled considerably on Roofles over the last year. Not a criticism of Roeth as a player- I still think he's a top5 QB in real football- just a commentary on the direction of his team and the state of the QB position today.Edit: in my original dynasty, Roeth is the only guy left on my team from the original startup draft. He's probably going to be on that team until he retires, but he's stuck behind Brees and now Kaepernick. Over the years, he's proven invaluable as a fill-in starter / security blanket (I've developed a lot of QB talent, and knowing I still have Roeth has given me a lot of flexibility to trade it away for players at other positions). At this point, though, that's all I view him as- a security blanket and phenomenal injury/bye fill-in. My days of rolling into the season with him atop my depth chart are behind me.
Both of your criticisms on Ben are valid, but I don't think it justifies ranking him in a different tier than Rivers and Dalton. Of the QBs in tier 4 and 5 who is most likely to put up a top 5 season at any point in the future. Maybe none, but I would put money on Ben before most others. Elite QBs can have career resurgences in their 30s, and he is still young enough that his situation in Y+2 or Y+3 could be dramatically different. It's even possible he could be on a different team by Y+2. Would be interested in the identical QBs you could get for pennies. Some of them seem to be ranked ahead of Ben. Others like Palmer and Schaub score considerable less PPG than Ben. I guess there's a question here though - is he on the edge of the abyss? Following McNabb it was pretty clear he was getting there. He got older, fatter, and more hurt. Possibly lazier too. Is Ben that, or is he Warner, Favre, an elite HOF QB? If he's elite he can weather the storm and should be ranked higher. If he's a bum, yah, sure, we should swap him for Dalton. I guess no one is arguing he's a QB2 at this point. Just if he's the same as Eli (which he is) then why is he a tier and 6 spots lower. Eli has similar durability issues, really. He doesn't miss games, but sometimes his arm does. Not to quibble minor differences in opinion.
I agree with a lot of this, too, but that's more because I have a problem with Eli and Rivers' rankings than Ben's. I'm in the process of stacking my rankings, and my thoughts might change as I finish up, but right now I'd probably put Ben around 17-19, with Eli immediately behind and Rivers well back. If you're asking me who in those ranges is most likely to bust out a surprise top5 finish, though, I'd be more inclined to go with Freeman than any of the names you've named. Throw Tannehill, Cutler, and Roethlisberger into the mix, too. With his WR corps, Eli wouldn't shock me, either. Honestly, there are a lot of talented guys in those two tiers. I can see a lot of possible ranges to rank these guys in, and I think any tier breaks in here wind up being more arbitrary and small than the huge tier drops further up (and further down) the list. The whole area is a mess that's going to be ranked based heavily on personal philosophy, but the huge glut of talent at QB today has pushed a lot of good players a lot further down than they ordinarily would have been, and Ben is absolutely one of those players.
 
I guess no one is arguing he's a QB2 at this point. Just if he's the same as Eli (which he is) then why is he a tier and 6 spots lower. Eli has similar durability issues, really. He doesn't miss games, but sometimes his arm does.
That's how I see it. Ben is not an ideal QB1 at all, but I would probably rather have him than Rivers. I would take him over Eli if not for the fact that he has Nicks/Cruz/Randle. I'd take a Tannehill over all of those guys on the off chance that he develops into a top 5-6 scorer, but someone like Ben is a decent stopgap bargain bin option to pair with a high risk/high reward prospect like Tannehill or one of this year's rookies.

In terms of the situation, I think the Steelers will dip into the WR pool in a couple weeks. This is a deep draft at that position and they should be able to find some instant help. It likely won't be enough to lift Ben to a top 10 finish next season, but I definitely don't see them standing pat with Brown as their only viable option.

 
As I said somewhere (post #1 I think) I generally don't get into protracted debates on individual players. I'll have my say, you'll have yours, then maybe a rebuttal by each and I am ready to move on.

In reading the Roethlisberger comments though I wanted to ad that I don't agree at all that he should compare to Eli in terms of ranking.

Durability -- one of my major worries for Ben is injury risk and longevity. Eli has not missed a game since he took over for Warner in 2004 while Been has had just one 16 game season in that time, and the opinion that I foresee the risk worsening for Ben going forward is one of my big points. These two are polar opposites on my durability scale.

Production -- last year Eli finished at QB15 per FBG ranking, a ranking which was lower than any time in his career previously. I beleive trying to work with a gimpy Nicks for most of the season and Hixon when Nicks could not go, plus trying to work with Martellus Bennett (who I really don't like as a pass catcher) for a season, plus Reuben Randle being a rookie, all contributed to that. Manning finished in the top 10 each of the previous three years (#6 in 2011) and with a healthy Nicks should be back in that area again. Ben finished 6 spots behind Eli in 2012, 6 spots behind Eli in 2011, and 7 spots behind Eli in 2010, and I see it as looking worse for Ben in 2013 while I see it maybe better for Eli with Nicks back healthy.

WRs and TEs -- Eli will have Nicks, Cruz, 2nd rounder Randle in his 2nd season, Murphy brought in for depth, and Myers brought in at TE who caught 79 balls last year. The Giants make a point of keeping their pass catching corps stocked. The Steelers have lost Wallace and probably now Sanders also (to NE), and most likely won't have Heath Miller for half the season (and in my opinion at 31 tearing the ACL/PCL/MCL in Week 16 may well make him effectively near-useless the whole season). What they have is Brown, Plax, Cotch, and UDFAs who have shown nothing at all, and seemingly little interest in addressing the position with any urgency the last couple years despite knowing they were losing Wallace. I don't understand this huge different in supporting cast being largely ignored in Eli / Ben comparisons. It is a huge huge factor!

There's also been discussion of Rivers / Ben. To me it's not really worth arguing about since I have them ranked so close #18 and #19. I was very close to putting Rivers in Ben's tier anyway and moving Geno Smith ahead of them both. A one-spot difference that low in a ranking list isn't worth the time to argue. Rivers has become very iffy too after underperforming and making lots of bad decisions the last two years, has a sucky OL, and may be losing arm strength, but he has a better surrounding WR/TE cast and not the injury concerns in my view.

As for suggesting Ben should be ranked ahead of Dalton in a dynasty ranking at this point of their respective careers and with Green for Dalton to throw to, not a chance in my mind. C'mon man!

OK, that's my last word on Ben. You guys feel free to continue the conversation - it's interesting to read - but I'm moving on to other things. Time is too limited and there's too much other stuff for me to address.

 
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Production -- last year Eli finished at QB15 per FBG ranking, a ranking which was lower than any time in his career previously. I beleive trying to work with a gimpy Nicks for most of the season and Hixon when Nicks could not go, plus trying to work with Martellus Bennett (who I really don't like as a pass catcher) for a season, plus Reuben Randle being a rookie, all contributed to that. Manning finished in the top 10 each of the previous three years (#6 in 2011) and with a healthy Nicks should be back in that area again. Ben finished 6 spots behind Eli in 2012, 6 spots behind Eli in 2011, and 7 spots behind Eli in 2010, and I see it as looking worse for Ben in 2013 while I see it maybe better for Eli with Nicks back healthy.
You can like Eli more if you want- I don't think it's unreasonable or indefensible- but this is weak sauce. Eli's overall rank is rarely low, but his PPG rank is usually junk. If you want to penalize Ben for never being on the field in the durability category, that's valid, but you can't double-count by penalizing him again in the performance category by using total points instead of points per game. It's like how QB rating double-counts completion percentage by using both comp% and YPA instead of the more sensible comp% and YPC (or ditching both entirely and just double-weighting YPA, instead).

Ben has outscored Eli in PPG in 5 of the last 7 seasons, and was within 0.15 PPG in a 6th. Most of the time, it hasn't even been close. Since 2006, among QBs with at least 32 games played, Roethlisberger is 8th in PPG (just behind Peyton Manning and Tony Romo), while Eli is 16th (just behind Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton). Eli averages 1.27 PPG fewer over that span, and that actually underestimates the difference because Ben has missed more games in recent seasons (in the more pass-happy environment) than early seasons, which causes those early seasons (in the less pass-happy environment) to be overrepresented in his average. And this is with Ben playing a lot more games injured and leaving a lot more games early. Ben Roethlisberger has topped 20 PPG in 4 of the last 6 seasons. Eli Manning has done it once in his entire career. There are a lot of reasons to prefer Eli over Ben, but the idea that he's been more productive when on the field is not one of them.

Eli Manning's PPG ranks since 2006- 18, 16, 18, 12, 12, 7, 17. 2011 looks a lot more like an outlier when you break it down this way. This is why I've always been hating on Eli Manning- he stays healthy and racks up respectable year-end rankings, but on a per game basis, he's going to get you slaughtered if you have to put him into the starting lineup.

Just for comparison's sake, here are Ben's PPG ranks since 2006- 9, 5, 20, 3, 7, 13, 11. That 20 sticks out like a sore thumb, but otherwise, Ben's second worst season (13th in PPG) is nearly identical to Eli's second best (12th in PPG), and Ben has four times as many top-10 finishes. Eli is much more durable, and has a style of play that should lend itself to a longer career. Eli has a dramatically better supporting cast around him. In terms of talent and history of production, though, Ben crushes him.

 
On James Casey -- in my spreadsheet and on the FBG rankings I have now made the switch for him from RB to TE. It takes an extra step at FBG since they still have him as RB (as does MFL by the way, but I'm confident both places will make the switch in time), and though I can list him among the TEs he still shows as "RB James Casey" in my FBG TE ranking. No matter. You know who he is. I've put him at TE27 at FBG and when I update the TE rankings here (probably over the weekend) he'll be TE32 because of 5 rookies slotted ahead of him.

Anyway, that addresses the question someone asked in the thread. I want to elaborate a little too since it isn't a very high ranking and he changed teams and there was some buzz about it especially since HC Kelly made a "Hernandez role" comment.

I'd suggest you put the Hernandez comment out of your mind ASAP if the fantasy football fairies are dancing in your brain putting Hernandez-like stats in there. All Kelly meant I believe is that Casey is a versatile guy who will be moved around in certain situations a la Hernandez, not that he will have anywhere near the prominent role in the offense Hernandez does in NE.

Casey is a 29 year old (in Sept) supplementary player who has shown flashes at times, but if you start thinking of him as a heavy producer I think you'll be disappointed. Kelly's offense is more run oriented than that of the Patriots for one thing, and when they do pass Casey is going to be behind WRs Maclin, DJax, TE Celek, RB McCoy, probably/maybe the WR3/WR4 in the pecking order as well. In NE Hernandez is essentially their WR1 now despite his TE title. Big difference.

I may have Casey ranked too high where I have him, but if I have him too low I doubt it's by much. I recommend you not overpay/overdraft him based on the buzz created by the Hernandez comment. It just meant he's versatile IMO.

 
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SSOG, good stuff for the history books but I'm trying to look ahead not back, with the health concerns and surrounding WR/TE they each have in the futue, not the past. Your point on historical PPG is valid, but I don't expect Ben's PPG in future to match the past, and I don't agree with your 2011 outlier comment for Eli -- having Nicks and Cruz changed things, it wasn't an accident Eli was better. Thriftyrocker, I'd still take Dalton in a heartbeat, on the upswing and still learning/improving entering his 3rd year, with Green, Sanu, Gresham, vs. a declining Ben with the style/health/longevity issues I've listed. Disagree with those issues if you choose, but I'd take Dalton well ahead of Ben all day every day without a second thought in your scenario. It's not just situation. Plus, that scenario is wildly hypothetical, not happening in 2013 that's for sure or in 2014 I'm pretty sure. Why even use it as an argument?

 
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Moving on after probably one too many Couch Potato -- Roethlisberger posts, I want to address Josh Gordon. There was at least one 'love the ranking' post, one or two 'too high' posts, and I'm well aware ranking him where I have him at WR16 is a serious outlier vs my FBG dynasty rankings brethren. Excluding me, the consensus as of today for those doing rankings in 2013 is WR39 (Grant has him at WR76 and I have absolutely no clue what that's about -- maybe he was thinking of Josh Cooper?). Dynasty WR39 is puzzling to me since Gordon finished in PPR as WR41 as a rookie in 2012, after not even playing college ball in 2011. A little background may be in order since he seemed to come out of nowhere for a lot of folks. Josh Gordon played only one meaningful college season. He played at Baylor as a freshman but didn't do much, and then as a sophmore in 2010 was 42-714-7 as 2nd WR to future 1st round NFL pick Kendall Wright. They had some guy you may have heard of -- RGIII -- tossing them the rock. Gordon then decided he liked being a pot smoker more than being a football player I guess and got suspended for the 2011 season. And that was that for his short college "career" because he decided to enter the NFL draft. He couldn't enter the regular draft though -- and with it all the coverage the media pours into the combine and pro days etc -- and had to wait for the supplemental draft later on. The lack of significant college career and not getting exposure through the regular draft process made Gordon a relative unknown to the typical football fan and fantasy player, but the NFL teams who were doing their homework were salivating over him. The Browns took him in the 2nd supplemental round, meaning they had to give up their 2nd round 2013 pick to get him. This was the highest a supplemental draft pick has been taken in a long time, and remember too that the Browns were a bad team who potentially could have been picking at the very top of the 2nd round in 2013. Gordon joined the Browns after the supplemental draft thereby missing OTAs, had just one year as a college starter and then a full year out of the game, but goes on to finish at 50-805-5 and WR41 as a rookie. Expect to see his 95 targets rise considerably in future. He's 6'3" 225, was considered good enough to be a starter as a soph at Baylor next to K Wright and playing with RGIII before he screwed up. So why aren't people jumping up and down for this guy? Why do other FBGs have him ranked for DYNASTY essentially where he finished as a ROOKIE after sitting on his butt for a year and then a shortened preseason?? I'm freaking baffled. I've watched him play enough to see STUD written all over him. Chud and Norv have taken over the Browns and are installing a vertical offense perfect for Gordon. Weeden isn't a lot of things but he can throw the deep ball, and if he isn't going to be the QB long term it's because CLE finds an upgrade. Maybe WR16 is too high for the cautious, but I wouldn't deal him for any of the names below him on my list. As for being an outlier and the consensus WR39 ranking, you can bet I won't be adjusting to get much closer to the pack. Be a buyer at those prices if you can get him, because IMO If they are smart they'll be moving toward my ranking in time instead.

 
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Gordon is a pretty trendy player in my leagues and I think his cost would be a lot higher than WR39 if you came calling to his owners. If that's where he's ranked on the staff list then I think they're a half year behind the curve because he's been commanding pretty hefty value in my leagues.

 
Moving on after probably one too many Couch Potato -- Roethlisberger posts, I want to address Josh Gordon. There was at least one 'love the ranking' post, one or two 'too high' posts, and I'm well aware ranking him where I have him at WR16 is a serious outlier vs my FBG dynasty rankings brethren. Excluding me, the consensus as of today for those doing rankings in 2013 is WR39 (Grant has him at WR76 and I have absolutely no clue what that's about -- maybe he was thinking of Josh Cooper?). Dynasty WR39 is puzzling to me since Gordon finished in PPR as WR41 as a rookie in 2012, after not even playing college ball in 2011. A little background may be in order since he seemed to come out of nowhere for a lot of folks. Josh Gordon played only one meaningful college season. He played at Baylor as a freshman but didn't do much, and then as a sophmore in 2010 was 42-714-7 as 2nd WR to future 1st round NFL pick Kendall Wright. They had some guy you may have heard of -- RGIII -- tossing them the rock. Gordon then decided he liked being a pot smoker more than being a football player I guess and got suspended for the 2011 season. And that was that for his short college "career" because he decided to enter the NFL draft. He couldn't enter the regular draft though -- and with it all the coverage the media pours into the combine and pro days etc -- and had to wait for the supplemental draft later on. The lack of significant college career and not getting exposure through the regular draft process made Gordon a relative unknown to the typical football fan and fantasy player, but the NFL teams who were doing their homework were salivating over him. The Browns took him in the 2nd supplemental round, meaning they had to give up their 2nd round 2013 pick to get him. This was the highest a supplemental draft pick has been taken in a long time , and remember too that the Browns were a bad team who potentially could have been picking at the very top of the 2nd round in 2013. Gordon joined the Browns after the supplemental draft thereby missing OTAs, had just one year as a college starter and then a full year out of the game, but goes on to finish at 50-805-5 and WR41 as a rookie. Expect to see his 95 targets rise considerably in future. He's 6'3" 225, was considered good enough to be a starter as a soph at Baylor next to K Wright and playing with RGIII before he screwed up. So why aren't people jumping up and down for this guy? Why do other FBGs have him ranked for DYNASTY essentially where he finished as a ROOKIE after sitting on his butt for a year?? I'm freaking baffled. I've watched him play enough to see STUD written all over him. Chud and Norv have taken over the Browns and are installing a vertical offense perfect for Gordon. Weeden isn't a lot of things but he can throw the deep ball, and if he isn't going to be the QB long term it's because CLE finds an upgrade. Maybe WR16 is too high for the cautions, but I sure wouldn't deal him for any of the names below him on my list. As for the being an outlier and the consensus WR39 ranking, you can bet I won't be adjusting to get closer to the pack. Be a buyer at those prices if you can get him, because IMO If they are smart they'll be moving toward my ranking in time.
:goodposting: i completely agree with your take on him.

 
Uh oh, I see EBF has started another thread banging the drum for Jonathan Stewart. How's Jon Baldwin working out for you these days my friend? LOL, sorry I couldn't resist, and we've all had our eff ups... I guess it's probably an appropriate time to address in this thread the comments about him. Maybe Mendenhall and McFadden soon thereafter, we'll see what time I have.

In the words of the venerable George W. Bush --

"There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again."

Yeah, that. Or something like that. I'm afraid though we've been fooled a number of times with Stewart. I can't remember a player over the last half-decade with so much hype and discussion surrounding him, then with it so much disappointment to follow (other than maybe Brett Favre, who actually did produce a couple of those years). I've spent time on the Stewy bandwagon myself I'm afraid, but I simply cannot get behind any of the hype anymore.

For the record, he has value. At the right price every starter has value. But in my mind he'll never again be considered for uber-stud status like he was his first couple years, and every year that passes he becomes less an acquisition target and more an afterthought filler type player. I now have him at dynasty RB25, the first RB on my "Vets with extra downside risk" tier. Also for the record, I'm very sick of seeing the words "super talent" used in connection with him. Talent is great to talk about for awhile, especially with younger unproven guys, but eventually you have to start looking at a guy's track record and adjust accordingly.

He used to always be on the injury report, even going back to college, dinged up with leg and foot issues, missing practices, but ultimately making it to the field and producing at game time. He missed just 2 games (in 2010) through his first 4 seasons. But last year he played only 9 games due to an ankle -- another lower body injury. Now 26 1/2 when the 2013 season begins (past what should have been his prime producing years), I have to wonder what Stewart's true football age is. Not because of mileage but because of the constant propensity for nagging leg/foot/ankle injuries and the toll they may be taking on his overall longevity.

He's never been "the man." Just looking quickly at his FBG yearly stat page, he finished with rankings of 24-11-35-25-53, with that last season due in large part to missing 7 games. The hype remains in some circles, with the hope that D Williams is cut and JStew with his big ol' contract will FINALLY be an uber-stud 300+ carry top 10 fantasy RB. I'm no longer buying the noise. At this point, prove it. Maybe D Williams stays (they've fooled us before), or maybe Tolbert becomes the D Williams of 2013, or a rookie does. I don't really think at this point HC Rivera wants a stud RB but instead a time share situation like they have every year. Throw QB Newton into the mix with his major involvement in the running game and especially the rushing TD vulturing, and I see Stewart's production as forever being capped at a not-so-special level. Add in the injury risk he seems to always be, and he's my RB25. If Stewart ends up surprising me, fine, but I'll never again let him be iin a position to disappoint me after investing heavily in him, because I won't be a guy investing heavily in him.

Because you see, there's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says...

 
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SSOG, on 11 Apr 2013 - 14:23, said:right now I'd probably put Ben around 17-19, with Eli immediately behind and Rivers well back.
Why do you feel Rivers is well back of Roethlisberger?Since 2006, when Rivers became a starter, he has averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game; over that same span, Roethlisberger has averaged 19.7 fppg. Is 1 fppg enough to be "well back"?Rivers was great through 2010, and has performed worse over the past two seasons as the talent around him declined or left the Chargers. During the past few years, the offensive line has become possibly the worst in the NFL, and players like Gates, Tomlinson, Sproles, and Vincent Jackson have seriously declined and/or left the Chargers. Still, Rivers averaged 19.4 fppg over those last two seasons, compared to Roethlisberger's 20.3 fppg. Again, not much of a gap.Now Roethlisberger faces the same kind of talent decline/departure as Rivers has already gone through, with Wallace, Sanders, Mendenhall, and Miller all potentially gone without similar caliber replacements or affected by injury. Meanwhile, Rivers has a new coach, one who might not stubbornly insist on calling a high percentage of long developing routes despite having a horrendous pass blocking offensive line... a coach who took over a similarly poor team last year and led it to a much improved offensive performance.Rivers has proven to be much more durable and to have no off field issues, and they are almost the same age... Rivers is 4 months older, but Roethlisberger's body has taken more abuse.I'm not necessarily saying Rivers should be ranked higher, but I don't see much that separates them. Certainly nothing that justifies a significant gap between them.
 
I'm not necessarily saying Rivers should be ranked higher, but I don't see much that separates them. Certainly nothing that justifies a significant gap between them.
I was going to pass on including Rivers in the debate above, but if anything my gut says I might have Rivers too low at QB18, not too high. A career low QB18 finish last year and the issues you mention, along with so many younger QBs showing promise, have dropped him there. But even in 2011 when things were not going well overall from a team standpoint and Rivers was tossing a lot of INTs, he was still fantasy QB9. Prior to that he was QB5 (2010), QB7 (2009), QB3 (2008).

The trend has been decidedly in the wrong direction, but if Danario stays in town (and healthy) rather than being plucked away as an RFA, and Vincent Brown finally stays healthy to show something, and Gates turns out NOT to have lost all his mojo and/or Ladarius Green turns out to be a player, and the OL/scheme is better, Rivers again could become a low end fantasy QB1 rather than languishing down where I have him now. I always liked him as a player.

I'd probably be a buyer at QB18 if having to choose to buy or sell at that ranking, and if I had to bet given the choice whether a year from now Rivers would be "well back" of Eli/Ben as SSOG says or up in the low teens or higher, I'd bet the latter. I need to see the 3-7-5-9-18 trend stopped first though before I'm comfortable with him much higher than I have him, because if the issue turns out to now be his arm or his mind (gun shy after being behind that OL a la David Carr), the decline could be permanent.

 
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I now have him at dynasty RB25, the first RB on my "Vets with extra downside risk" tier. Also for the record, I'm very sick of seeing the words "super talent" used in connection with him. Talent is great to talk about for awhile, especially with younger unproven guys, but eventually you have to start looking at a guy's track record and adjust accordingly.
I don't think Stewart's career to date contradicts the idea that he's supremely talented. He's been an effective player throughout his time in the NFL. He has a higher career YPC average than LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Maurice Drew, Marshawn Lynch, and Arian Foster. The problem isn't that he hasn't performed. It's that he hasn't been given more opportunities.

The injury stuff is a concern. So is the fact that last year was the worst season of his career by far. It might turn out that his body is breaking down and we've already seen the best of what he has to offer. On the other hand, he's just 26 and has managed to play 14.2 games per season thus far in his career, even including last year. In terms of missing games, he's no worse than your average RB. Maybe even a little better.

The "fool me once" argument would be easier to accept if you didn't have McFadden at RB12. Isn't he the poster boy for chronic disappointment? One good season in five years and he's still a top 12 back? Stewart has more career rushing yards, a higher YPC average, and a better track record of health. It's inconsistent to dog him for his durability and results while at the same time pumping up a guy with similar or worse question marks in those areas.

 
Here's the splits for rushing attempts under Chip Kelly's tenure

Y, QB RA, RB1 RA, Other RB RA, Other RB RA/G

2009, 137, 230, 175, 13.5

2010, 115, 294, 189, 14.5

2011, 81, 247, 300, 21.5

2012, 144, 278, 262, 20.2

Here's an article about the Eagles moving to a time share

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/13/eagles-to-shift-to-two-back-system-under-chip-kelly/

Would you still take a NYJ RB over Bryce Brown?
Good food for thought. I'm not married to any of my rankings if I can be pursuaded I've missed something or that my thinking was wrong. Let me consider this some more.

One counter-argument that comes to mind quickly though is that at Oregon they have the pick of players from anywhere and the RB2 could really be an RB1b, whereas Bryce Brown was a 7th rounder who has fumbling and pass protection and maybe some other problems, while McCoy has been a top notch player reliable and producer. I'm pretty skittish about Brown specifically with the fumbling and other issues despite his YPC in limited chances, and think he could be surpassed by Polk in time if he displays too much unreliability.

Good stuff though, thanks for sharing and I'll let it marinate in the brain juices and then maybe adjust. Maybe. :)

 
At Oregon, the RA:PA was about 1.6:1. There will be so many RA, McCoy will not be able to handle them all. Someone is going to get carries.

The one thing I'm glossing over in those stats is that often that "other RB" was often 3 or 4 guys. Oregon recruited a boatload of RBs and gave a ton of guys carries. But Kelly won't be able to do the same in the NFL with limited roster spots.

If you're discrediting Bryce Brown for being a 7th rounder, I think that's misguided. He has fumbling and pass protection issues but so do a lot of young RB.

 
At Oregon, the RA:PA was about 1.6:1. There will be so many RA, McCoy will not be able to handle them all. Someone is going to get carries.

The one thing I'm glossing over in those stats is that often that "other RB" was often 3 or 4 guys. Oregon recruited a boatload of RBs and gave a ton of guys carries. But Kelly won't be able to do the same in the NFL with limited roster spots.

If you're discrediting Bryce Brown for being a 7th rounder, I think that's misguided. He has fumbling and pass protection issues but so do a lot of young RB.
Yeah, sorry about the 7th round comment. That was only to imply he had issues to be concerned about entering the league that could still exist. The eye popping stats he put up in the games he started were not 7th rounder stats and I am sorry to have implied he was a 7th round talent.

And I'm an admitted Polk fan, hoping he'll get his shot there or somewhere. Maybe I'm a bit biased. Also, maybe your 2nd comment in the above post means he will get a chance still.

Thanks again for the posts. Between you and EBF, I may be warming up to Bryce Brown and may have discounted him too much. Before the next rankings update I'll definitely look more at the Philly picture.

 
Polk is in better shape, lost 12 lbs, definitely more rosterable.
Hey Thrifty, you know I respect your opinion... ignoring the argument whether the guys I have in the RB30-35 or so range belong there, would you put Bryce Brown that high? Do you think I'm giving Polk too much chance to displace him? I think you are right that Brown's current RB51 is too low, but how high is high enough in your opinion? I think (without looking) EBF said he'd bump him 25-30 spots but no way am I liking/trusting him enough for the RB20-25 range. Your and others' input are welcomed.

 
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OK I'm really past out of time tonight already, but I want to get Mendenhall out of the way tonight and deal with my absurdly high ranking (some would say) for McFadden tomorrow. I think I will do this rather quickly and then not bother with a lot of back and forth debate. If you like and believe in Mendenhall, go with it, buy him and pray hard. To me he's not worth the typing.

He signed a one-year 'prove it' contract with a team with a really bad OL, and I believe he is no more than a one-year bridge to either a fully healthy 2014 Ryan Williams (if he makes it back 100%) or a player not yet on the roster. Since 2009 Mendenhall produced below a 4.0 YPC in PIT where they had a better OL, and the backups did better than Mendy when they were in there. But he was a good fantasy RB (great one year) because his OC fed him the ball, especially at the goal line, and made him a high TD producer. He's an idiot who couldn't keep his twitter-mouth shut, he was no longer wanted by the Steelers, and he's lucky to even have a starting shot in 2013 somewhere - and does so because his former OC got a HC job and is desperate for a healthy RB. Am i the only guy who wonders why Adrain Peterson came back from his ACL to dominate last year while Mendenhall was a bust in 2012 after his ACL, even though they each tore theirs a week apart in December the prior year? Dedication to rehab differences perhaps, at least in part? Just a guess.

I have Mendenhall ranked at RB33 and Ryan Williams at RB35, and see Mendy starting in 2013 but Williams having a better career thereafter. A patella tendon injury is a big deal and takes a full year-plus to really be healthy, and the risk of re-injury or compensation injury to another body part is relatively high. I think Mendenhall may get another starting gig in 2014 somewhere if he does well enough in 2013 but right now I'd say it's about a coin flip. He's certainly no one whose starting future I'd bank on beyond 2013. In my leagues people are trying like hell to trade him AWAY, not acquire him, for good reason. Unless he can be had pretty cheaply, he's mostly a one year value with really iffy potential beyond that. I see no reason at all to fall in love with the guy's future and rank him any higher in dynasty.

 
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I took Brown at RB35 in a mock, so I guess so. I wouldn't take him much higher than that though.

Polk couldn't beat out Brown the first time, then even as a 3rd team RB and STer couldn't stay healthy.

He's a good RB, but Brown is better. Certainly it's possible since it's a new offense and new staff, but it's as much a long shot as most of the players in that tier.

 
Thanks again for the posts. Between you and EBF, I may be warming up to Bryce Brown and may have discounted him too much. Before the next rankings update I'll definitely look more at the Philly picture.
He showed a lot of potential last year. Bit of a head case and that's a big part of why his college career was such a train wreck, but he obviously has talent. Ranked as the top player in his high school recruiting class. 220+ pounds with sub 4.5 speed and showed surprisingly good feet as a rookie. Nimble and fluid. I think he has the look of a future starter and with Chip Kelly being the creative type, I wouldn't be surprised if he has a slightly bigger role than people anticipate this season.

I wouldn't really worry about the fumbling stuff, as that's something these backs tend to get a handle on over time. Remember that Brown only had 101 carries in college, so in many respects he's still at a very early stage of his development. This is a RAW player. I see that as more of a positive than a negative. With more polish and experience, he should only get better.

 
Thanks again for the posts. Between you and EBF, I may be warming up to Bryce Brown and may have discounted him too much. Before the next rankings update I'll definitely look more at the Philly picture.
He showed a lot of potential last year. Bit of a head case and that's a big part of why his college career was such a train wreck, but he obviously has talent. Ranked as the top player in his high school recruiting class. 220+ pounds with sub 4.5 speed and showed surprisingly good feet as a rookie. Nimble and fluid. I think he has the look of a future starter and with Chip Kelly being the creative type, I wouldn't be surprised if he has a slightly bigger role than people anticipate this season.

I wouldn't really worry about the fumbling stuff, as that's something these backs tend to get a handle on over time. Remember that Brown only had 101 carries in college, so in many respects he's still at a very early stage of his development. This is a RAW player. I see that as more of a positive than a negative. With more polish and experience, he should only get better.
Thanks. :football: I do remember reading he was a top HS recruit.

 
Hey CP,

When you get to it, please comment on Manning. That one surprises me as much as any of them, on YOUR list which in general is very "forward thinking" (i.e. factoring in age fairly heavily) compared to most.

I guess I'm just wondering how you see the next couple of years playing out, because if those next couple of years aren't a LOT better than Wilson's, Kaep's etc. it would really be hard to justify having him over them.

To be fair, I don't see a ton of guys a LOT lower than Manning on your list that I'd scream for, but I could make a case for a few of them.

 
Production -- last year Eli finished at QB15 per FBG ranking, a ranking which was lower than any time in his career previously. I beleive trying to work with a gimpy Nicks for most of the season and Hixon when Nicks could not go, plus trying to work with Martellus Bennett (who I really don't like as a pass catcher) for a season, plus Reuben Randle being a rookie, all contributed to that. Manning finished in the top 10 each of the previous three years (#6 in 2011) and with a healthy Nicks should be back in that area again. Ben finished 6 spots behind Eli in 2012, 6 spots behind Eli in 2011, and 7 spots behind Eli in 2010, and I see it as looking worse for Ben in 2013 while I see it maybe better for Eli with Nicks back healthy.
You can like Eli more if you want- I don't think it's unreasonable or indefensible- but this is weak sauce. Eli's overall rank is rarely low, but his PPG rank is usually junk. If you want to penalize Ben for never being on the field in the durability category, that's valid, but you can't double-count by penalizing him again in the performance category by using total points instead of points per game. It's like how QB rating double-counts completion percentage by using both comp% and YPA instead of the more sensible comp% and YPC (or ditching both entirely and just double-weighting YPA, instead).

Ben has outscored Eli in PPG in 5 of the last 7 seasons, and was within 0.15 PPG in a 6th. Most of the time, it hasn't even been close. Since 2006, among QBs with at least 32 games played, Roethlisberger is 8th in PPG (just behind Peyton Manning and Tony Romo), while Eli is 16th (just behind Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton). Eli averages 1.27 PPG fewer over that span, and that actually underestimates the difference because Ben has missed more games in recent seasons (in the more pass-happy environment) than early seasons, which causes those early seasons (in the less pass-happy environment) to be overrepresented in his average. And this is with Ben playing a lot more games injured and leaving a lot more games early. Ben Roethlisberger has topped 20 PPG in 4 of the last 6 seasons. Eli Manning has done it once in his entire career. There are a lot of reasons to prefer Eli over Ben, but the idea that he's been more productive when on the field is not one of them.

Eli Manning's PPG ranks since 2006- 18, 16, 18, 12, 12, 7, 17. 2011 looks a lot more like an outlier when you break it down this way. This is why I've always been hating on Eli Manning- he stays healthy and racks up respectable year-end rankings, but on a per game basis, he's going to get you slaughtered if you have to put him into the starting lineup.

Just for comparison's sake, here are Ben's PPG ranks since 2006- 9, 5, 20, 3, 7, 13, 11. That 20 sticks out like a sore thumb, but otherwise, Ben's second worst season (13th in PPG) is nearly identical to Eli's second best (12th in PPG), and Ben has four times as many top-10 finishes. Eli is much more durable, and has a style of play that should lend itself to a longer career. Eli has a dramatically better supporting cast around him. In terms of talent and history of production, though, Ben crushes him.
Where do you guys get your PPG stats? It would be really nice if the Data Dominator would incorporate that in the near future...

 
Where do you guys get your PPG stats? It would be really nice if the Data Dominator would incorporate that in the near future...
:goodposting:I had to manually calculate them in my last post, because I don't know of a convenient source. Even if DD added a column for games played, it would be a big help, because then you could just drop its results into a spreadsheet and easily calculate ppg for everyone in the results.
 
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26 Pead, Isaiah STL 23.7 6.2 … 2nd round in 2012. Signed through 2015..

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45 Richardson, Daryl STL 23.4 6.5 … 7th round In 2012. Signed through 2015.
First off, great job on the rankings and analysis.

Don't take this as criticism but more a curiosity. Why is Richardson 20 spots behind the guy he beat out last year in St. Louis?

Personally I think Richardson is the better back, but that's subjective and by no means would I say that Pead can not improve enough to move past Richardson in 20013 - however I would just think that the two should be placed a little closer together until we see how things play out at the very least.
This got lost in the shuffle, so just bumping it to get your thoughts. To begin with I can see the Rams drafting a big back, which should then drop Pead down lower towards Richardson - but if they don't I think both backs are given a legit chance to compete for the majority of carries, and last season Richardson won that competition. Both backs are virtually the same size (Richardson 196 and Pead 197) so it's not like either have an advantage there.

 
Bloom suggested that the dynasty aspect of the site will be improved. I hope you're a big part of that, Bruce. As a subscriber, having the conversation is as valuable as the rankings themselves. I hope there is a way to incorporate more of it with the rankings moving forward, assuming the thread is not updated during the season. Especially with F&L and SSOG moving away from rankings, I really appreciate your sharing them.

 
Just Win Baby said:
FF Ninja said:
Where do you guys get your PPG stats? It would be really nice if the Data Dominator would incorporate that in the near future...
:goodposting:I had to manually calculate them in my last post, because I don't know of a convenient source. Even if DD added a column for games played, it would be a big help, because then you could just drop its results into a spreadsheet and easily calculate ppg for everyone in the results.
Yeah, I thought about mentioning the option for DD to list games played, but since it would be just as easy to list PPG I figured I shouldn't even bring that up since it would still be a pain in the #### to manually calculate PPG.

PPG is a criminally underused metric. Always so much focus on year end rank or totals.

ETA: really? a-r-s-e is censored?

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Why do you feel Rivers is well back of Roethlisberger?Since 2006, when Rivers became a starter, he has averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game; over that same span, Roethlisberger has averaged 19.7 fppg. Is 1 fppg enough to be "well back"?Rivers was great through 2010, and has performed worse over the past two seasons as the talent around him declined or left the Chargers. During the past few years, the offensive line has become possibly the worst in the NFL, and players like Gates, Tomlinson, Sproles, and Vincent Jackson have seriously declined and/or left the Chargers. Still, Rivers averaged 19.4 fppg over those last two seasons, compared to Roethlisberger's 20.3 fppg. Again, not much of a gap.Now Roethlisberger faces the same kind of talent decline/departure as Rivers has already gone through, with Wallace, Sanders, Mendenhall, and Miller all potentially gone without similar caliber replacements or affected by injury. Meanwhile, Rivers has a new coach, one who might not stubbornly insist on calling a high percentage of long developing routes despite having a horrendous pass blocking offensive line... a coach who took over a similarly poor team last year and led it to a much improved offensive performance.Rivers has proven to be much more durable and to have no off field issues, and they are almost the same age... Rivers is 4 months older, but Roethlisberger's body has taken more abuse.I'm not necessarily saying Rivers should be ranked higher, but I don't see much that separates them. Certainly nothing that justifies a significant gap between them.
I've had some questions about how well Rivers' throwing motion would age for a while, so I view them as comparable "effective ages" right now- same real age, Roeth has the wear and tear, Rivers has the funky motion. For me, it's just a matter of Rivers looking bad last year. Really, really bad. Not like a good QB in a bad situation (as Roethlisberger has looked at times), but like a bad QB. He was skittish, his accuracy was off, and he just looked bad. Vincent Jackson isn't coming back, Darren Sproles isn't coming back, Vasquez isn't coming back, and Antonio Gates isn't going to discover the fountain of youth any time soon, so if I'm going to gamble on one of two proven QBs in bad situations going forward, I'd rather gamble on the guy who looked like a top5 QB last year, not the guy who looked like a shell-shocked journeyman. If choosing between two QBs behind terrible lines, I'll take one of the greatest sandlot QBs to ever play the game, not a guy who gets happy feet and starts spraying balls whenever there's pressure up the middle (and who, oh yeah, just lost his best offensive linemen). I could absolutely be wrong about Rivers. He was a phenomenal QB, and the last two years could be more of a blip than a decline. He could be the next Kurt Warner. I'd just feel much more comfortable betting that way on Roethlisberger than Rivers.
Just Win Baby said:
FF Ninja said:
Where do you guys get your PPG stats? It would be really nice if the Data Dominator would incorporate that in the near future...
:goodposting:I had to manually calculate them in my last post, because I don't know of a convenient source. Even if DD added a column for games played, it would be a big help, because then you could just drop its results into a spreadsheet and easily calculate ppg for everyone in the results.
I #####ed to Drinen about it a couple of years back and he added the feature to the Historical Data Dominator. Select "fantasy points" for stat #1, "games played" for stat #2, set some minimum number of games (I usually use 6), and sort by "stat 1/stat 2". You can calculate over a multiple-year span by switching from "individual seasons" to "totals"- just remember to increase the games played threshold. When you run the search, there'll be an extra unlabeled column at the end of the table- that's your rate stat (in this case, ppg).No clue why he never added it to the Data Dominator, too, but I'm not one to look a gift horse in the mouth, so I never complained about it. There is a ton of functionality that I think could be added to the DD and HDD, but even without, they're some of the most valuable tools around. Edit: you both are welcome in advance. I have a feeling we won't be seeing much of either of you for a while. I think when Drinen first added it, it was a week before my family saw me again. ;)
Bloom suggested that the dynasty aspect of the site will be improved. I hope you're a big part of that, Bruce. As a subscriber, having the conversation is as valuable as the rankings themselves. I hope there is a way to incorporate more of it with the rankings moving forward, assuming the thread is not updated during the season. Especially with F&L and SSOG moving away from rankings, I really appreciate your sharing them.
I'm not moving away from rankings. I'm about 75% of the way through mine, and should have a thread up by this weekend or early next week.Edit: I hadn't done as much football stuff this last season because I had a newborn son at home. As we settle into a routine, my activity level should continue to ratchet back up again.
 
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Dr. Octopus said:
26 Pead, Isaiah STL 23.7 6.2 … 2nd round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

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45 Richardson, Daryl STL 23.4 6.5 … 7th round In 2012. Signed through 2015.
First off, great job on the rankings and analysis.

Don't take this as criticism but more a curiosity. Why is Richardson 20 spots behind the guy he beat out last year in St. Louis?

Personally I think Richardson is the better back, but that's subjective and by no means would I say that Pead can not improve enough to move past Richardson in 20013 - however I would just think that the two should be placed a little closer together until we see how things play out at the very least.
This got lost in the shuffle, so just bumping it to get your thoughts. To begin with I can see the Rams drafting a big back, which should then drop Pead down lower towards Richardson - but if they don't I think both backs are given a legit chance to compete for the majority of carries, and last season Richardson won that competition. Both backs are virtually the same size (Richardson 196 and Pead 197) so it's not like either have an advantage there.
Don't want to turn this into a drawn out discussion of philosophies on rookie RB competition because the occurrence of rookie RB competition isn't that common, but I don't think you can discredit Pead just because Richardson won Rd1. Pead missed OTA due to late graduation, was dazed n confused during preseason, and just wasn't ready to contribute. Richardson started in the same hole, but learned faster and did better. That doesn't mean Pead's toast or Richardson is better longterm. There is a lot of groupthink brewing that Richardson is Bernard Scott. He did look great in the game SJAX got hurt in, but Scott looked great at times too. That doesn't mean he's more than a 1d cop RB though, and as the season drew on that's the only way they used him. If Pead can be more than that, due to better quicks and change of direction, then he deserves to have more value even though he withered on the vine Y1. It's obvious DRich had a better Y1, but the question should be who has the highest upside if STL rolls into 2013 with just those 2. I think it's Pead. Wesseling links to some stuff about Pead as a breakout player in a recent article http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000159282/article/ten-players-from-the-2012-draft-poised-for-a-bigger-role

 
Bloom suggested that the dynasty aspect of the site will be improved. I hope you're a big part of that, Bruce. As a subscriber, having the conversation is as valuable as the rankings themselves. I hope there is a way to incorporate more of it with the rankings moving forward, assuming the thread is not updated during the season.
:goodposting:
 
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Don't want to turn this into a drawn out discussion of philosophies on rookie RB competition because the occurrence of rookie RB competition isn't that common, but I don't think you can discredit Pead just because Richardson won Rd1.
I only bring that up as a means of stating why, at the very least, Pead and Richardson should be linked a little closer in the rankings. I can absolutely understand that some one could prefer Pead, but based on all the information we have now, we know:

1. Both competed for a role last season and Richardson beat him out.

2. The pair will compete again this season - either are capable of winning that competition.

Pead looked like he ram far too "amped up" last season, so he can certainly learn to show a little more patience and become a better NFL back. I thought McCoy looked bad as a rookie for the opposite reason (he danced around way too much) but he learned to turn upfield and go North-South quicker and became a far more efftective back.

I don't think Richardson is any elite talent, and frankly I do think that the Rams will bring in another rookie this season, but I thought he looked quicker than Pead and showed the ability to push a pile despite his small stature. I'm just curious about the 20 spot discrepency and willing to listed to why CP thinks it's warranted.

 
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SSOG, on 11 Apr 2013 - 14:23, said:right now I'd probably put Ben around 17-19, with Eli immediately behind and Rivers well back.
I'm taking Eli way before I take Ben or Rivers
You wouldn't be the only one. Eli went before Ben in 10 of the 18 DLF mocks. I think Bruce and I laid out the pros and cons of both sides pretty well- Eli is more durable and plays with better WRs, but has been pretty much unstartable on a per-game basis for pretty much his entire career. Ben has been much more productive to date, but he takes a pounding and his supporting cast is junk. I also think that a strong majority would agree that Ben is the better or more talented NFL (not fantasy) QB.
 
Hi gang, I'm popping in to let you know I'm not letting any of the players brought up to be discussed in the thread fall through the cracks, but that my time posting to the thread has been limited this week. I have 2 jobs, one very early morning for 3 hours and one full time that has me doing taxes this time of year, plus there are other life commitments, so you can imagine this is not the best week in the world to be trying to keep up with commentary on every player asked about in the thread. I'm trying hard where I can squeeze in some time, but it's tough. Just be assured the reasons I haven't gotten to your player or issue have nothing to do with you and I will get there as soon as I can. Sunday, and after Monday the 15th, will be better. I'll have some time tonight too.

I know I haven't gone chronologically, instead more or less haphazardly through the players, and that's maybe been a little confusing. Sorry about that. I guess I've just talked about the ones that my motivation has taken me toward at the time. Also, some of the more daunting questions - the ones that have been less clear in my own mind as well as in yours - have been put off as I buy time for more thought or research. For example, Dr. Octopus' Manning v. Wilson/Kaep is one of those, because any time I'm dealing with ranking a great player who is long in tooth with an unknown endpoint vs. young up-and-comers with a limited track record, there's a great deal of uncertainty. Same with Gonzo and how he fits given his "100%" comment and whether to 100% believe him since he did sign a two-year contract. On a larger scale, JWB's more pervasive issue in post #49 really deserves a fair amount of time for a big theoretical discussion and perhaps a new thread, and I want to get through these specific player conversations and another pass through the rankings before trying to tackle that one.

I expect to have an update of the RB rankings tonight after work, and that's mostly done already. The Bryce Brown fans will be happy to know I agree I've given him less than his due in my first set of rankings and he now sits at RB34. A lot of less dramatic changes have been made also, and updates for the week's free agent signings are included. Pead/Richardson is something I'm also revisiting tonight before I post new rankings, though I'm not likely to move either one very much if at all. I think I'm fairly clear in my own mind how I view that situation, though it doesn't hurt to look at it again. I'll comment tonight on that situation. Anyway, thanks for your patience and I'll let you know when the new RB rankings go up, and I will add some more discussion posts in a few hours when my workday allows.

 
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