Could Michael Turner have an easier preseason? (1 Viewer)

[Unlucky]

Michael Turner looks great so far. Against the Lions and Rams.

Last year, Turner had big games vs. DET, KC, OAK, STL, GB, CAR, SD, and TB. 5 of those teams finished in the bottom 7 in Yards/Carry allowed.

Looking at Atlanta's schedule, doesn't it seem a bit tougher than last year?

His division foes were in the bottom 10 to 14 range in YPC last year. But he doesn't face anyone that finished worse than that. Out of the division, he faces the Bears (3), Eagles (4), Jets (7), Redskins (8), 49ers (9), Giants (11), Patriots (15), Dolphins (17), Cowboys (18), and Bills (22)

Now, you can't guarantee that all those teams will be as good or better vs. the run. But I don't think you can deny that most or none will be as bad as DET, KC, OAK, and STL were vs. the run last year.

ATL's D doesn't impress me (fewer late-game carries), Gonzalez will get at least a couple of redzone looks, and Turner rarely catches the ball. Ignoring the bogus curse of 370, and you can easily see why things are not nearly aligned in Turner's favor as they were last season.

This is why I have Turner outside of my top 10. If I were you, I'd spend my first round pick on somebody else. Nowhere for Turner to go but down. This is why you should ignore a lot of what you see in the pre-season.

 

[millertyme1]

I could of ran through the hole on his 40+ yard run vs. STL

I think his #'s will go down if only because I don't see as many carries (still will have over 300 IMO). I only play PPR and he's not in my first round.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I agree with Unlucky's analysis for the most part.

On the flip side, ATL's offense should be better with the maturation of Ryan and addition of Gonzalez, which may lead to more sustained drives and more red zone chances.

It's not clear which trend will effect Turner's numbers more, imo.

 

[Unlucky]

I agree with Unlucky's analysis for the most part. On the flip side, ATL's offense should be better with the maturation of Ryan and addition of Gonzalez, which may lead to more sustained drives and more red zone chances.It's not clear which trend will effect Turner's numbers more, imo.

Atlanta ran 1011 offensive plays last year, which is about middle of the pack. When you run as much as they do, it's hard to have more. As a team, they ran 560 times. That is a LOT. 16 passing and 23 rushing TDs last year. I have to think the passing TDs will go up. Let's say 22 passing TDs + 23 rushing TDs = 45 on offense. That's pretty solid, but nowhere near record breaking. So there is room for improvement, but I think it's going to be tough. If I was a betting man (I am), I'd bet on Turner's numbers dropping from last year.

 

[Garts]

I'll gladly take Turner as you guys pass on him early on.

In his prime, workhorse, breaks tackles and scores long TDS.

Doesn't catch many balls but there really isn't a better in-between the tackles RB then Turner right now.

Also, Turner is almost automatic from inside the 5. Atlanta always seems to end up inside the 5 on a lot of plays and Turner always cashes in.

 

[texasbirdfan]

Turner's numbers will drop because Norwood, Snelling will get more carries (obvious NFL trend RBBC last 2 years) and the new TE will get more looks. Homer aside, I believe the D will improve however, allowing less passing.

 

[deliverator]

Turner's numbers will drop because Norwood, Snelling will get more carries (obvious NFL trend RBBC last 2 years) and the new TE will get more looks. Homer aside, I believe the D will improve however, allowing less passing.

The same Norwood whose carries per game and yards per carry have dropped in each of the last two seasons?The same Snelling who has 100 career rushing yards on 28 carries?These are the guys who are going to take carries away from a 27-year-old coming off a 1700-yd, 17 TD season?Somehow I doubt it.

 

[Knobs]

You have him at #11, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Though I expect a couple guys above him to fall to injuries...

 

[cmv5]

Michael Turner looks great so far. Against the Lions and Rams. Last year, Turner had big games vs. DET, KC, OAK, STL, GB, CAR, SD, and TB. 5 of those teams finished in the bottom 7 in Yards/Carry allowed. Looking at Atlanta's schedule, doesn't it seem a bit tougher than last year?His division foes were in the bottom 10 to 14 range in YPC last year. But he doesn't face anyone that finished worse than that. Out of the division, he faces the Bears (3), Eagles (4), Jets (7), Redskins (8), 49ers (9), Giants (11), Patriots (15), Dolphins (17), Cowboys (18), and Bills (22)Now, you can't guarantee that all those teams will be as good or better vs. the run. But I don't think you can deny that most or none will be as bad as DET, KC, OAK, and STL were vs. the run last year. ATL's D doesn't impress me (fewer late-game carries), Gonzalez will get at least a couple of redzone looks, and Turner rarely catches the ball. Ignoring the bogus curse of 370, and you can easily see why things are not nearly aligned in Turner's favor as they were last season. This is why I have Turner outside of my top 10. If I were you, I'd spend my first round pick on somebody else. Nowhere for Turner to go but down. This is why you should ignore a lot of what you see in the pre-season.

Okay, the disliking of Turner is becoming cliche. Who are the nine you are taking before him? Also, he is doing what he is supposed to be doing against easy competition.

 

[texasbirdfan]

Turner's numbers will drop because Norwood, Snelling will get more carries (obvious NFL trend RBBC last 2 years) and the new TE will get more looks. Homer aside, I believe the D will improve however, allowing less passing.

The same Norwood whose carries per game and yards per carry have dropped in each of the last two seasons?The same Snelling who has 100 career rushing yards on 28 carries?

These are the guys who are going to take carries away from a 27-year-old coming off a 1700-yd, 17 TD season?

Somehow I doubt it.

YR TM G RSH YD Y/R TD TRG REC YD Y/R TD FPT RANK VBD 2006 ATL 14 99 633 6.4 2 16 12 102 8.5 0 86 43 0 [game logs] [splits]

2007 ATL 15 102 615 6.0 1 39 28 277 9.9 0 95 43 0 [game logs] [splits]

2008 ATL 16 94 489 5.2 4 54 36 338 9.4 2 119 37 0 [game logs] [splits]

TOT 45 295 1737 5.9 7 109 76 717 9.4 2 300 0

Trends change, so does every NFL team. You can ignore the RBBC trend if you like, but Smith and Mularkey are on record saying more touches for Norwood, fewer for Turner.

BTW Norwood had 130 carries/ receptions each of the last 2 years.

.

 

[Knobs]

Okay, the disliking of Turner is becoming cliche. Who are the nine you are taking before him? Also, he is doing what he is supposed to be doing against easy competition.

First, he said he has him OUTSIDE his top ten. So that would be TEN guys ahead of him.Second, it's in his sig.Here are the ten guys ahead of him:MJDPetersonTomlinsonSlatonPierre ThomasWestbrookDeAngeloSJaxPortisJacobsTURNERAgree with it or not, but those are who he has ranked higher.

 

[Nemesis Enforcer]

What I am taking away from these preseason games is that Turner is one of the few workhorse backs left in the league. I don't care so much that it was against Det and STL, every team is going to play good defenses and bad defenses. He is doing what he should against inferior talent and when it matters during the regular season no matter the makeup of the defense he is their horse and they are going to ride him. The fact that his offense is better this year only bodes well for him - the ability to sustain drives, more opportunities, more chances to get up on an opponent where ATL will use Turner in the 4th quarter with a lead to wear down the defense and cement the game.

He shows explosiveness when hitting a hole, he is tough to take down, he seems to break the first tackle more than others and as evidenced last night, he will get the ball in the redzone and get it a lot. With a top WR talent and a top TE talent on their first drive he got the ball exclusively inside the 10 yard line.

2nd and 5 at SL 13 (11:53) M.Turner left end to SL 6 for 7 yards (O.Atogwe, W.Witherspoon).

1st and 6 at SL 6 (11:16) M.Turner up the middle to SL 2 for 4 yards (W.Witherspoon).

2nd and 2 at SL 2 (10:35) (Shotgun) M.Turner left tackle to SL 1 for 1 yard (J.Wade).

3rd and 1 at SL 1 (9:57) M.Turner left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

How many backs being drafted in the top 10 right now can claim to be their team's bellcow? Yes he takes a hit in PPR leagues but his number of rushes and TD opportunities still keep him in the top 5. There are no age concerns (LT2, Westbrook), no oline or complimentary talent concerns (SJax), no TD vulture concerns (C Johnson, S Slaton), and no RBBCs (DWill, Jacobs, Barber, Portis?)

You want to argue AD, MJD, Forte, even Gore since he is all they got in SF, that is fine but none of those guys play on better offenses imo. ATL with their weapons on offense and the expected maturation of Ryan has the potential to put up some points this year and I see Turner being a big part of that in 09.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Im just curious if the folks that are bumping down Turner because of schedule are doing the same to DeAngelo, his schedule is even tougher than Turner's.

 

[baconisgood]

scores long TDS.

He does? Thats news to me, last year he scored 12 TDs on rushes from inside the 5, 14 from inside the 10 and 15 from inside the 20. He had a 28 yard rushing TD and a 66 yard rushing TD for his two other TDs - with the 66 yarder coming against Detroit.

 

[two_dollars]

scores long TDS.

He does? Thats news to me, last year he scored 12 TDs on rushes from inside the 5, 14 from inside the 10 and 15 from inside the 20. He had a 28 yard rushing TD and a 66 yard rushing TD for his two other TDs - with the 66 yarder coming against Detroit.

That's more than a lot of RB's can say.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Im just curious if the folks that are bumping down Turner because of schedule are doing the same to DeAngelo, his schedule is even tougher than Turner's.

I think the difference is, generally speaking, Turner struggled against good defenses last season, while DeAngelo tore apart every defense he faced, good and bad, once he caught fire. It probably also helps that DeAngelo had a couple of awesome games in nationally televised games (the TB MNF game, and the Giants Sunday night game), while Atlanta didn't have a lot of nationally covered games last year, so more people actually saw how DeAngelo play well, and that is often times a factor. If you have two guys who are about equally good, but you saw one of them a lot more than the other, you are almost always gonna take the guy you saw more.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Im just curious if the folks that are bumping down Turner because of schedule are doing the same to DeAngelo, his schedule is even tougher than Turner's.

I think the difference is, generally speaking, Turner struggled against good defenses last season, while DeAngelo tore apart every defense he faced, good and bad, once he caught fire. It probably also helps that DeAngelo had a couple of awesome games in nationally televised games (the TB MNF game, and the Giants Sunday night game), while Atlanta didn't have a lot of nationally covered games last year, so more people actually saw how DeAngelo play well, and that is often times a factor. If you have two guys who are about equally good, but you saw one of them a lot more than the other, you are almost always gonna take the guy you saw more.

Let's be fair here. The defenses Williams faced once he caught fire ranked 9 (NYG), 16 (ARI), 17 (NO), 19 (TB), 25 (ATL), 26 (GB), 27 (DEN), 31 (OAK), 32 (DET). To say Williams tore apart defenses good and bad...we're talking mostly bad here.Here is what I will say about Turner. I wouldn't be drafting him in the Top 5 myself and I'm a Falcon homer. But he is one of the safest picks in the draft. He simply provides no augmentation or support in the passing game so in order for him to be an elite player, he has to run for 1500+ yards. Whereas guys like MJD, Forte, Gore, Jackson, et al can be just as productive from a YFS perspective at 1100-1200.But I think Turners floor is about 1350 YFS and 11 TD's. That's about as high a floor as you'll find outside ADP.

 

[Tau837]

Michael Turner looks great so far. Against the Lions and Rams. Last year, Turner had big games vs. DET, KC, OAK, STL, GB, CAR, SD, and TB. 5 of those teams finished in the bottom 7 in Yards/Carry allowed. Looking at Atlanta's schedule, doesn't it seem a bit tougher than last year?His division foes were in the bottom 10 to 14 range in YPC last year. But he doesn't face anyone that finished worse than that. Out of the division, he faces the Bears (3), Eagles (4), Jets (7), Redskins (8), 49ers (9), Giants (11), Patriots (15), Dolphins (17), Cowboys (18), and Bills (22)Now, you can't guarantee that all those teams will be as good or better vs. the run. But I don't think you can deny that most or none will be as bad as DET, KC, OAK, and STL were vs. the run last year. ATL's D doesn't impress me (fewer late-game carries), Gonzalez will get at least a couple of redzone looks, and Turner rarely catches the ball. Ignoring the bogus curse of 370, and you can easily see why things are not nearly aligned in Turner's favor as they were last season. This is why I have Turner outside of my top 10. If I were you, I'd spend my first round pick on somebody else. Nowhere for Turner to go but down. This is why you should ignore a lot of what you see in the pre-season.

Agreed. Turner Spotlight posts:

A few things.Using Clayton Gray's Ultimate Strength of Schedule for RBs from 6/16, we can see that Atlanta is projected to be right in the middle of the NFL in terms of its RB SOS. Noteworthy is that it shows Atlanta's schedule to be about 5% tougher than last season for RBs.Meanwhile, Clayton's SOS for QBs article from 6/16 shows that Atlanta is projected to be tied for last in the league in terms of QB SOS (i.e., tied for the most difficult QB schedule). It shows Atlanta's schedule to be about 9% tougher than last season for QBs.Looking at the schedules, it makes sense. Last year, outside the division the Falcons played the AFC West, NFC North, Philadelphia, and St. Louis... who had a cumulative record of 59-100-1. This year, they play the AFC East, NFC East, Chicago, and San Francisco, who last year had a cumulative record of 92-67-1. While I realize this is an imprecise way to judge teams for this year, since there are a lot of changes year to year, that is a huge gap, so I think the overall conclusion that the overall quality of their opponents seems to be higher this year is reasonable. Which means it is reasonable to think they will face tougher defenses overall.How does this affect Turner specifically? Well, here is one set of splits of Turner's carries to consider from last season:Ahead 212/990/11Tied - 74/400/2Behind - 90/309/4Turner got roughly 18% of his rushing yards and 24% of his carries and TDs when behind. This isn't necessarily too surprising, as it makes sense that teams rush less when behind than when they aren't. But given the tougher schedule, will Atlanta be playing from behind more? It seems reasonable to think so. Here's the problem for Turner. For some RBs, that would simply mean a shift, with fewer carries but more receptions. But Turner is not involved in the passing game. As others have suggested, he'll probably top the 6 receptions he had last year, but overall this likely means less opportunity for Turner this year IMO.Let's also look at the extraordinary number of red zone and goal line opportunities Turner got last season. First, here are the top 6 RBs in terms of carries in the red zone last year:Turner 72Slaton 63Jones 62Tomlinson 56Peterson 53Portis 48How about goal line carries (using DD, so 5 yard line to goal):White 21Slaton 18Jacobs 18Turner 17Johnson 17McClain 17Jones 16(By the way, looking at this data, Slaton stood out as being extraordinarily bad at this, but that's for another discussion...)What to make of this? Well, Turner had 17 TDs last year. 12 were inside the 5, and only 2 were from outside the red zone. Assuming the Falcons will be playing from behind more often... and knowing that Ryan should be better... and knowing the Falcons added Gonzalez... I'd say Turner will get slightly fewer goal line carries and substantially fewer red zone carries... perhaps 45 red zone carries, including 15 goal line carries. I'd say these factors are enough to drop him to the 10-12 range for TDs.I don't put much stock in the 370 carry rule (or the n carry rule), but I do think it is unlikely he will maintain his 4.5 ypc against the tougher schedule and in following his 395 carry season last year... I could particularly see him starting to wear down a bit late in the season. It does appear that his SOS is pretty good in weeks 14-17, but Ryan's is the worst in the league (again referring to Clayton's projections), so that might not enable Turner to completely take advantage of his attractive schedule.Projection: 320/1370/11 rushing and 15/105/0 receiving

To put it in fantasy terms, he got 20.4% of his fantasy points when behind, which was 25.5% of the time. So one could expect that if Atlanta trails more this season, this shows that his production will fall. Again, this is not necessarily out of the ordinary, but I think there is a bit greater risk to Turner since he is so uninvolved in the passing game.