Could Peyton Manning be overrated this year? (1 Viewer)

[fballer]

What if Peyton Manning is just extremely good this year and not a record setting monster as he was last year. The two years prior to last years unheard of season he was only the number 6 and number 4 fantasy QB in terms of per game production. Should we be counting on another record breaking season?Jim

 

[RustyFA]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick. It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

 

[David Yudkin]

History does not suggest a high probability of a repeat by Manning. Look for an article on this in the next few days.

 

[David Yudkin]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick. It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

If Manning only gets 32 TD, NO WAY is he worth a Top 5 pick.

 

[NYG Endzone]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick. It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

If Manning only gets 32 TD, NO WAY is he worth a Top 5 pick.

Yeah more likely VBD in Cpep area. Pick 15ish

 

[Judge Smails]

History does not suggest a high probability of a repeat by Manning. Look for an article on this in the next few days.

I've seen several articles, and most have big time caveats (only played X games due to injury, etc.). Many DID come back and have great years, including Favre several times. Not one thing changed in Indy this year. Same skill players, same system, etc. The NFL threw the kitchen sink at the Colts passing game last year, and they are impossible to stop. If Peyton only averaged 2 TD's a game (he did that in the first quarter in several games last year), then that's 32. I say he hits 40 easily. He's a seasoned guy, and nobody can say, other than history, which is laced with asterisks (Young's knee, Warner's thumb, etc), why he shouldn't have a monster year. 20% drop gives him 40 TD's. I'd take it.

 

[Judge Smails]

And I agree, if he only throws 32 TD's very few of his owners will win a SuperBowl this year..

 

[cobalt_27]

History does not suggest a high probability of a repeat by Manning. Look for an article on this in the next few days.

David, I don't think anybody here expects a repeat of 2004. What they expect is a repeat of what he's been doing, more generally, for over 5 years now. What safer, high-scoring pick is there beyond LT and Manning?

 

[David Yudkin]

History does not suggest a high probability of a repeat by Manning.  Look for an article on this in the next few days.

I've seen several articles, and most have big time caveats (only played X games due to injury, etc.). Many DID come back and have great years, including Favre several times. Not one thing changed in Indy this year. Same skill players, same system, etc. The NFL threw the kitchen sink at the Colts passing game last year, and they are impossible to stop. If Peyton only averaged 2 TD's a game (he did that in the first quarter in several games last year), then that's 32. I say he hits 40 easily. He's a seasoned guy, and nobody can say, other than history, which is laced with asterisks (Young's knee, Warner's thumb, etc), why he shouldn't have a monster year. 20% drop gives him 40 TD's. I'd take it.

Of the Top 25 fatasy seasons by QB, the average was a 37% loss in total fantasy points scores, a 23% loss in fantasy PPG, and a 65% loss in value points (VBD).Whether that has any bearing on how well Manning will do is up to you to decide . . .

 

[David Yudkin]

History does not suggest a high probability of a repeat by Manning.  Look for an article on this in the next few days.

David, I don't think anybody here expects a repeat of 2004. What they expect is a repeat of what he's been doing, more generally, for over 5 years now. What safer, high-scoring pick is there beyond LT and Manning?

Using the FBG scoring system and a 12-team league, here are Manning's overall value rankings throughout his career: 40, 14, 11, 16, 24, 30, 2. Again, people can come to their own conclusions . . .

 

[pizzatyme]

I have posted on this several times. I am Colts season ticket holder. And, while that doesn't make me any better at projections. I do see all of the pre-season games.I see that the Colts O-line is ailing. The center, Jeff Saturday, is the key to the line and is hurt. He has no legitimate back-up and I would watch this closely the rest of the pre-season.I have projected Manning for 4300/38 this season.I think the Colts can now exploit the obvious game-planing for their passing game by giving it to Edge 3 or 4 more times a game as opposed to the play-action.I look for Edge to be top #3 and possibly #1 if he gets into the endzone enough.Just my $0.02 and that's all it's worth! hehe

 

[David Yudkin]

Not one thing changed in Indy this year. Same skill players, same system, etc.

People said the same thing about Ricky Williams . . . or Ahman Green . . . or Dan Marino . . . or whomever. NOTHING could change and the chances for a repeat are slim.Sometimes, everything goes incredibly right and players have monster performances. Wilt Chamberlain had 100 points one night, why not every night. Bary Bonds had 73 home runs, why not every year?Favre is the only QB in history to have back-to-back seasons with 35 TD passes. While nothing may have changed in Indianapolis, I can tell you that A LOT has changed in terms of 31 other teams in how much time they will spend looking at film, game planning, and defending the Colts.

 

[Uncle Humuna]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick.  It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

If Manning only gets 32 TD, NO WAY is he worth a Top 5 pick.

Does this apply to Thrown TD=6 leagues also?

 

[NYG Endzone]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick. It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

If Manning only gets 32 TD, NO WAY is he worth a Top 5 pick.

Does this apply to Thrown TD=6 leagues also?

With 32 Passing TDs as projections... (1qb)6pt TDs pick #10

4pt TDs pick #15

According to DD (Joes baseline)

 

[Doug B]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick.  It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

If Manning only gets 32 TD, NO WAY is he worth a Top 5 pick.

Does this apply to Thrown TD=6 leagues also?

Good point -- Peyton Manning's worth is highly dependant on scoring system.Seems obvious, but the assumption is that everyone is using FBG scoring. We're not.

 

[David Yudkin]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick.  It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

If Manning only gets 32 TD, NO WAY is he worth a Top 5 pick.

Does this apply to Thrown TD=6 leagues also?

I suspect that if Manning only had 32 TD, he might not even lead the league (although he'd probably be close. Last year, there were 9 guys with 27 TD. A 5 TD advantage over potentially 8 or 9 guys would not lead me to think that he'd be a valuable Top 5 pick.

 

[Amishmen]

Remember what happened the year Warner was a sure thing and people were drafting him in the top 5.DOHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!

 

[ratpfink]

What if Peyton Manning is just extremely good this year and not a record setting monster as he was last year. The two years prior to last years unheard of season he was only the number 6 and number 4 fantasy QB in terms of per game production. Should we be counting on another record breaking season?

Jim

Manning's record breaking season only got him up to the number 2 fantasy QB.So yes, he might be a little overrated.

 

[David Yudkin]

Cut that meat! Cut that meat!Here we go insurance adjusters, here we go!. . . sorry, it had to be done.

 

[Judge Smails]

Remember what happened the year Warner was a sure thing and people were drafting him in the top 5.

DOHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, well some of us have been around this game a few years and there was a time that the #1 pick WAS a QB, usually named Young or Favre, and a great many of those teams won Superbowls.

 

[coolnerd]

And I agree, if he only throws 32 TD's very few of his owners will win a SuperBowl this year..

In most leagues, there are at least 12-15 additional rounds of drafting. Manning at 32 TDs while not ideal for him at top 5 (FBG scoring) , should not take them out of the running assuming the rest of the draft is solid.

 

[Judge Smails]

Not one thing changed in Indy this year. Same skill players, same system, etc.

People said the same thing about Ricky Williams . . . or Ahman Green . . . or Dan Marino . . . or whomever. NOTHING could change and the chances for a repeat are slim.Sometimes, everything goes incredibly right and players have monster performances. Wilt Chamberlain had 100 points one night, why not every night. Bary Bonds had 73 home runs, why not every year?

Favre is the only QB in history to have back-to-back seasons with 35 TD passes. While nothing may have changed in Indianapolis, I can tell you that A LOT has changed in terms of 31 other teams in how much time they will spend looking at film, game planning, and defending the Colts.

Fair enough. We'll see. I bet when all is said in done, the difference between his TD totals and the group of 8 or 9 you mentioned is a lot more than 5. Closer to 12+.

 

[norseman9375]

Not one thing changed in Indy this year. Same skill players, same system, etc.

People said the same thing about Ricky Williams . . . or Ahman Green . . . or Dan Marino . . . or whomever. NOTHING could change and the chances for a repeat are slim.Sometimes, everything goes incredibly right and players have monster performances. Wilt Chamberlain had 100 points one night, why not every night. Bary Bonds had 73 home runs, why not every year?

Favre is the only QB in history to have back-to-back seasons with 35 TD passes. While nothing may have changed in Indianapolis, I can tell you that A LOT has changed in terms of 31 other teams in how much time they will spend looking at film, game planning, and defending the Colts.

 

[David Yudkin]

Not one thing changed in Indy this year. Same skill players, same system, etc.

People said the same thing about Ricky Williams . . . or Ahman Green . . . or Dan Marino . . . or whomever. NOTHING could change and the chances for a repeat are slim.Sometimes, everything goes incredibly right and players have monster performances. Wilt Chamberlain had 100 points one night, why not every night. Bary Bonds had 73 home runs, why not every year?

Favre is the only QB in history to have back-to-back seasons with 35 TD passes. While nothing may have changed in Indianapolis, I can tell you that A LOT has changed in terms of 31 other teams in how much time they will spend looking at film, game planning, and defending the Colts.

Fair enough. We'll see. I bet when all is said in done, the difference between his TD totals and the group of 8 or 9 you mentioned is a lot more than 5. Closer to 12+.

If Manning has 12+ more TD than the pack, I'd say he would at least merit consideration AS A FIRST ROUND PICK. IMO, unless you feel strongly that he will almost double up some of the top QB in TD, then he's a risky VALUE pick. I've tried explanation this in other threads, but it's possible that Manning could be the #1 QB but still not be more valuable than many other players.I have some reasons for concern in terms of Manning's chances for an uber elite season this year. (The ones I mentioned so far were more historical trends.) For starters, Manning had more than half his TD in 5 games last year against woeful defenses that he will not see again this year. In his other games (many against opponents he WILL see again), he averaged a little over 2 TD a game instead of 5 TD a game against the pansies. It could be just a coincidence. But maybe it's not.

There's nothing wrong with 32-35 TD (if that's what he can put up), but that would put him at a very good season instead of a season for the ages like last year.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick. It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

If Manning only gets 32 TD, NO WAY is he worth a Top 5 pick.

True, but I suspect RustyFA meant at least 32 TD, not exactly 32 TD. If he truly has a low side of 32 (and a high side of 50 or whatever), he's probably worth a top five pick.I don't think he has a low side of just 32, however. He's thrown >30 TDs only twice.

 

[Vicktimized]

To those saying he faced a lot of woeful defenses last season...what about the 2 games vs Tenn this season? Stl Louis? Frisco? Brownies? The Texans, who might be worse defensively and gave up one of Manning's huge games last season? Seattle is going to stop him? Etc...even if schedule was a major factor last season, why does this one look like any less of a cakewalk? Plus, people forget, he threw 49 tds in 15 games. That 16th game he played maybe 1 series and sat. I'm arguing from playing in a 6 point per passing TD system, but let me ask...for all those citing risk for Manning, why then would you advocate McAllister, McGahee, Holmes, or Portis ahead of him? 2 of those guys disappointed last year, one got hurt, and one has a questionable situation in front of him now. Any could disappoint this season, and I'd argue that it's more likely than Manning doing so. We know Manning has grade A protection, anticipates and reads coverages probably better than any QB going today,and has great weapons at WR, TE, and the threat of James to play off of. He isn't likely to get hurt, yet carries the potential to score 40-50 Tds again. With the contact rules enforced, nobody can really cover guys like Harrison consistantly, and what safety or LB can run with Clark 1 on 1? The ONLY knock on Peyton is that he's a QB in a RB's game...but given the depth of RB, isn't this the year to draft a Manning? And even if you get STUCK with all viable RBs gone in round 3, is drafting Owens or Holt the worst thing ever? I'd say, you get a shot at Manning in your draft, it's worth punching your lotto ticket to see if you can get those 50 tds and be the favorite in your league. If not, a QB who throws 35 TDs isn't exactly a downside to fear.

 

[David Yudkin]

To those saying he faced a lot of woeful defenses last season...what about the 2 games vs Tenn this season? Stl Louis? Frisco? Brownies? The Texans, who might be worse defensively and gave up one of Manning's huge games last season? Seattle is going to stop him? Etc...even if schedule was a major factor last season, why does this one look like any less of a cakewalk? Plus, people forget, he threw 49 tds in 15 games. That 16th game he played maybe 1 series and sat.

I'm arguing from playing in a 6 point per passing TD system, but let me ask...for all those citing risk for Manning, why then would you advocate McAllister, McGahee, Holmes, or Portis ahead of him? 2 of those guys disappointed last year, one got hurt, and one has a questionable situation in front of him now. Any could disappoint this season, and I'd argue that it's more likely than Manning doing so.

We know Manning has grade A protection, anticipates and reads coverages probably better than any QB going today,and has great weapons at WR, TE, and the threat of James to play off of. He isn't likely to get hurt, yet carries the potential to score 40-50 Tds again. With the contact rules enforced, nobody can really cover guys like Harrison consistantly, and what safety or LB can run with Clark 1 on 1?

The ONLY knock on Peyton is that he's a QB in a RB's game...but given the depth of RB, isn't this the year to draft a Manning? And even if you get STUCK with all viable RBs gone in round 3, is drafting Owens or Holt the worst thing ever?

I'd say, you get a shot at Manning in your draft, it's worth punching your lotto ticket to see if you can get those 50 tds and be the favorite in your league. If not, a QB who throws 35 TDs isn't exactly a downside to fear.

I'm not as concerned with how players do or where people have them ranking. I am concerned, however, with where to slot them in terms of value on draft day.Much of this thread has focused on whether Manning is a viable Top 5 or even #1 draft pick. IMO, LT, Holmes, Alexander, and Edge are all better options based on what they've already done. The other guys admittedly are riskier (I wouldn't take Portis or McGahee that early either.)

LT's value scores have been 85, 155, 202, and 130. Alexander's have been 127, 119, 127, and 139.

Holmes' value scores in KC have been 142, 220, 231, and 41 (although he was on pace for 400 fantasy points before getting hurt).

As mentioned earlier, Manning's have been 70, 60, 53, and 150 (in a 4 pt/TD system). His value would be higher in a 6 pt/TD system, but until this year last year people talking about taking a QB that early would have been lambasted. What changed in a year?

I've said all along that Manning should still have a good season, but the fact of the matter is that people taking him this year will be paying for last year's inflated statistics.

In his first two years and last two years, Edge's value scores have been 186, 179, 79, and 100.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

To those saying he faced a lot of woeful defenses last season...what about the 2 games vs Tenn this season? Stl Louis? Frisco? Brownies? The Texans, who might be worse defensively and gave up one of Manning's huge games last season? Seattle is going to stop him? Etc...even if schedule was a major factor last season, why does this one look like any less of a cakewalk? Plus, people forget, he threw 49 tds in 15 games. That 16th game he played maybe 1 series and sat. 

I'm arguing from playing in a 6 point per passing TD system, but let me ask...for all those citing risk for Manning, why then would you advocate McAllister, McGahee, Holmes, or Portis ahead of him? 2 of those guys disappointed last year, one got hurt, and one has a questionable situation in front of him now. Any could disappoint this season, and I'd argue that it's more likely than Manning doing so.

We know Manning has grade A protection, anticipates and reads coverages probably better than any QB going today,and has great weapons at WR, TE, and the threat of James to play off of. He isn't likely to get hurt, yet carries the potential to score 40-50 Tds again. With the contact rules enforced, nobody can really cover guys like Harrison consistantly, and what safety or LB can run with Clark 1 on 1?

The ONLY knock on Peyton is that he's a QB in a RB's game...but given the depth of RB, isn't this the year to draft a Manning? And even if you get STUCK with all viable RBs gone in round 3, is drafting Owens or Holt the worst thing ever?

I'd say, you get a shot at Manning in your draft, it's worth punching your lotto ticket to see if you can get those 50 tds and be the favorite in your league. If not, a QB who throws 35 TDs isn't exactly a downside to fear.

I'm not as concerned with how players do or where people have them ranking. I am concerned, however, with where to slot them in terms of value on draft day.Much of this thread has focused on whether Manning is a viable Top 5 or even #1 draft pick. IMO, LT, Holmes, Alexander, and Edge are all better options based on what they've already done. The other guys admittedly are riskier (I wouldn't take Portis or McGahee that early either.)

LT's value scores have been 85, 155, 202, and 130. Alexander's have been 127, 119, 127, and 139.

Holmes' value scores in KC have been 142, 220, 231, and 41 (although he was on pace for 400 fantasy points before getting hurt).

As mentioned earlier, Manning's have been 70, 60, 53, and 150 (in a 4 pt/TD system). His value would be higher in a 6 pt/TD system, but until this year last year people talking about taking a QB that early would have been lambasted. What changed in a year?

I've said all along that Manning should still have a good season, but the fact of the matter is that people taking him this year will be paying for last year's inflated statistics.

In his first two years and last two years, Edge's value scores have been 186, 179, 79, and 100.

I agree David, but aren't we paying for any of the top 3 RB's last year's statistics.In fact, for Priest Holmes, aren't we paying from 2 years ago if you draft him top 3. He certainly didn't put up top 3 numbers overall last season, we're going on what he could put up when he was Superman a couple years ago and are hoping he can do that again.

 

[David Yudkin]

To those saying he faced a lot of woeful defenses last season...what about the 2 games vs Tenn this season? Stl Louis? Frisco? Brownies? The Texans, who might be worse defensively and gave up one of Manning's huge games last season? Seattle is going to stop him? Etc...even if schedule was a major factor last season, why does this one look like any less of a cakewalk? Plus, people forget, he threw 49 tds in 15 games. That 16th game he played maybe 1 series and sat. 

I'm arguing from playing in a 6 point per passing TD system, but let me ask...for all those citing risk for Manning, why then would you advocate McAllister, McGahee, Holmes, or Portis ahead of him? 2 of those guys disappointed last year, one got hurt, and one has a questionable situation in front of him now. Any could disappoint this season, and I'd argue that it's more likely than Manning doing so.

We know Manning has grade A protection, anticipates and reads coverages probably better than any QB going today,and has great weapons at WR, TE, and the threat of James to play off of. He isn't likely to get hurt, yet carries the potential to score 40-50 Tds again. With the contact rules enforced, nobody can really cover guys like Harrison consistantly, and what safety or LB can run with Clark 1 on 1?

The ONLY knock on Peyton is that he's a QB in a RB's game...but given the depth of RB, isn't this the year to draft a Manning? And even if you get STUCK with all viable RBs gone in round 3, is drafting Owens or Holt the worst thing ever?

I'd say, you get a shot at Manning in your draft, it's worth punching your lotto ticket to see if you can get those 50 tds and be the favorite in your league. If not, a QB who throws 35 TDs isn't exactly a downside to fear.

I'm not as concerned with how players do or where people have them ranking. I am concerned, however, with where to slot them in terms of value on draft day.Much of this thread has focused on whether Manning is a viable Top 5 or even #1 draft pick. IMO, LT, Holmes, Alexander, and Edge are all better options based on what they've already done. The other guys admittedly are riskier (I wouldn't take Portis or McGahee that early either.)

LT's value scores have been 85, 155, 202, and 130. Alexander's have been 127, 119, 127, and 139.

Holmes' value scores in KC have been 142, 220, 231, and 41 (although he was on pace for 400 fantasy points before getting hurt).

As mentioned earlier, Manning's have been 70, 60, 53, and 150 (in a 4 pt/TD system). His value would be higher in a 6 pt/TD system, but until this year last year people talking about taking a QB that early would have been lambasted. What changed in a year?

I've said all along that Manning should still have a good season, but the fact of the matter is that people taking him this year will be paying for last year's inflated statistics.

In his first two years and last two years, Edge's value scores have been 186, 179, 79, and 100.

I agree David, but aren't we paying for any of the top 3 RB's last year's statistics.In fact, for Priest Holmes, aren't we paying from 2 years ago if you draft him top 3. He certainly didn't put up top 3 numbers overall last season, we're going on what he could put up when he was Superman a couple years ago and are hoping he can do that again.

The difference is that Holmes, LT, Alexander, and James have established a baseline of what their usual performance level has been. Holmes had back to back seasons of 373 points scored and was on his way to 400 last year when he got hurt (196 points scored in 7.5 games). Those were their established baselines.Manning's baseline has been at a level a lot lower and last year's totals were a great deal higher. Using AVT, Manning's baseline (3-yr average) would be 35 TD. I would say that that is a much better representation than those thinking the baseline for comparison for Manning this year should be in the 40s for TD passes.

Since there will forever be a comparisonto Brady, Brady's AVT number for TD passes is 26.3, so those that believe in the AVT theory would start with Brady being 8.7 TD behind Manning.

If you use the same approach for the RB, their average season would be very similar to their numbers from recent seasons.

 

[Doug B]

As mentioned earlier, Manning's have been 70, 60, 53, and 150 (in a 4 pt/TD system).

How about in start-2-QB leagues?

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

To those saying he faced a lot of woeful defenses last season...what about the 2 games vs Tenn this season? Stl Louis? Frisco? Brownies? The Texans, who might be worse defensively and gave up one of Manning's huge games last season? Seattle is going to stop him? Etc...even if schedule was a major factor last season, why does this one look like any less of a cakewalk? Plus, people forget, he threw 49 tds in 15 games. That 16th game he played maybe 1 series and sat. 

I'm arguing from playing in a 6 point per passing TD system, but let me ask...for all those citing risk for Manning, why then would you advocate McAllister, McGahee, Holmes, or Portis ahead of him? 2 of those guys disappointed last year, one got hurt, and one has a questionable situation in front of him now. Any could disappoint this season, and I'd argue that it's more likely than Manning doing so.

We know Manning has grade A protection, anticipates and reads coverages probably better than any QB going today,and has great weapons at WR, TE, and the threat of James to play off of. He isn't likely to get hurt, yet carries the potential to score 40-50 Tds again. With the contact rules enforced, nobody can really cover guys like Harrison consistantly, and what safety or LB can run with Clark 1 on 1?

The ONLY knock on Peyton is that he's a QB in a RB's game...but given the depth of RB, isn't this the year to draft a Manning? And even if you get STUCK with all viable RBs gone in round 3, is drafting Owens or Holt the worst thing ever?

I'd say, you get a shot at Manning in your draft, it's worth punching your lotto ticket to see if you can get those 50 tds and be the favorite in your league. If not, a QB who throws 35 TDs isn't exactly a downside to fear.

I'm not as concerned with how players do or where people have them ranking. I am concerned, however, with where to slot them in terms of value on draft day.Much of this thread has focused on whether Manning is a viable Top 5 or even #1 draft pick. IMO, LT, Holmes, Alexander, and Edge are all better options based on what they've already done. The other guys admittedly are riskier (I wouldn't take Portis or McGahee that early either.)

LT's value scores have been 85, 155, 202, and 130. Alexander's have been 127, 119, 127, and 139.

Holmes' value scores in KC have been 142, 220, 231, and 41 (although he was on pace for 400 fantasy points before getting hurt).

As mentioned earlier, Manning's have been 70, 60, 53, and 150 (in a 4 pt/TD system). His value would be higher in a 6 pt/TD system, but until this year last year people talking about taking a QB that early would have been lambasted. What changed in a year?

I've said all along that Manning should still have a good season, but the fact of the matter is that people taking him this year will be paying for last year's inflated statistics.

In his first two years and last two years, Edge's value scores have been 186, 179, 79, and 100.

I agree David, but aren't we paying for any of the top 3 RB's last year's statistics.In fact, for Priest Holmes, aren't we paying from 2 years ago if you draft him top 3. He certainly didn't put up top 3 numbers overall last season, we're going on what he could put up when he was Superman a couple years ago and are hoping he can do that again.

The difference is that Holmes, LT, Alexander, and James have established a baseline of what their usual performance level has been. Holmes had back to back seasons of 373 points scored and was on his way to 400 last year when he got hurt (196 points scored in 7.5 games). Those were their established baselines.Manning's baseline has been at a level a lot lower and last year's totals were a great deal higher. Using AVT, Manning's baseline (3-yr average) would be 35 TD. I would say that that is a much better representation than those thinking the baseline for comparison for Manning this year should be in the 40s for TD passes.

Since there will forever be a comparisonto Brady, Brady's AVT number for TD passes is 26.3, so those that believe in the AVT theory would start with Brady being 8.7 TD behind Manning.

If you use the same approach for the RB, their average season would be very similar to their numbers from recent seasons.

I agree with what your saying, but also think that you can't just take the average and make it nice and neat and not think about anything else.You have to take into account player personnel and where they are in their careers as well. Peyton Manning is definately in his prime, to take into account what he did a few years ago skews things. Not only that, he's got Reggie Wayne who's looks to be at the top of his game etc.....Indy's always been good on offense, but that haven't been this good. Then you can take into account any rule changes that may have occured that could benefit the offense.

I'm not here to say Peyton is a top 5 pick, that's for you guys to decide for your own teams. But like many of you, I watched the Colts......they're exciting right. Well, 49 Td's is a lot, but if you watched them like I did you know that he could have easily had 55 td's.

If you were a bookie, and put the over/under at Peyton Manning's TD's for this upcoming season at 35 you would lose A LOT of money.

 

[David Yudkin]

As mentioned earlier, Manning's have been 70, 60, 53, and 150 (in a 4 pt/TD system).

How about in start-2-QB leagues?

Start QB league is a whole 'nother ballgame.For all of these debates, scoring system, league size, and starting requirements will impact how valuable a player will be.

Manning should be considered a viable Top 5 pick in a start 2 QB league. (And if someone thinks he will repeat last year's season, he's worth it in a start 1 QB league.)

 

[migarvin]

mannign will still be the most valuable qb. To say he will not repeat is illogical. culpepper had 39 tds and mcnabb had 37. (illegal contact makes a difference)culpepper lost moss (13 tds in 11 games) and TO is going crazy while manning has lost absolutely nothingi've read every thread involving mannning on this board. It seems manning is now an underdog to even reach 40 td's. IF you think manning will have a 33 % dropoff then its also easy to argue that culpepper and mcnabb will throw only 20 td's each. Mcnabb may still have owens (???) but lost his 2nd and 3rd wideouts from last year (pinkston and fred ex)I'm so comfortable with manning every week. THe last several years i've had green/hasselback (which was an annoying platoon) and plummer/carr last year. Look at all the first round running backs that disappointed last year - clinton portis, jamal lewis, ahman green, priest holmes, fred taylor & deuce mcalister I just don't see how you can pass on manning at 1 or 2 - i was able to get l jordan at 23, westbrook at 26, coles at 47, roy williams at 50, and warrick dunn at 71 why pass up a sure thing, a competitive advantage at qb all year. bennet, barlow, carnell wiliams, t jones/benson - all went in round 6 or later

 

[David Yudkin]

To those saying he faced a lot of woeful defenses last season...what about the 2 games vs Tenn this season? Stl Louis? Frisco? Brownies? The Texans, who might be worse defensively and gave up one of Manning's huge games last season? Seattle is going to stop him? Etc...even if schedule was a major factor last season, why does this one look like any less of a cakewalk? Plus, people forget, he threw 49 tds in 15 games. That 16th game he played maybe 1 series and sat. 

I'm arguing from playing in a 6 point per passing TD system, but let me ask...for all those citing risk for Manning, why then would you advocate McAllister, McGahee, Holmes, or Portis ahead of him? 2 of those guys disappointed last year, one got hurt, and one has a questionable situation in front of him now. Any could disappoint this season, and I'd argue that it's more likely than Manning doing so.

We know Manning has grade A protection, anticipates and reads coverages probably better than any QB going today,and has great weapons at WR, TE, and the threat of James to play off of. He isn't likely to get hurt, yet carries the potential to score 40-50 Tds again. With the contact rules enforced, nobody can really cover guys like Harrison consistantly, and what safety or LB can run with Clark 1 on 1?

The ONLY knock on Peyton is that he's a QB in a RB's game...but given the depth of RB, isn't this the year to draft a Manning? And even if you get STUCK with all viable RBs gone in round 3, is drafting Owens or Holt the worst thing ever?

I'd say, you get a shot at Manning in your draft, it's worth punching your lotto ticket to see if you can get those 50 tds and be the favorite in your league. If not, a QB who throws 35 TDs isn't exactly a downside to fear.

I'm not as concerned with how players do or where people have them ranking. I am concerned, however, with where to slot them in terms of value on draft day.Much of this thread has focused on whether Manning is a viable Top 5 or even #1 draft pick. IMO, LT, Holmes, Alexander, and Edge are all better options based on what they've already done. The other guys admittedly are riskier (I wouldn't take Portis or McGahee that early either.)

LT's value scores have been 85, 155, 202, and 130. Alexander's have been 127, 119, 127, and 139.

Holmes' value scores in KC have been 142, 220, 231, and 41 (although he was on pace for 400 fantasy points before getting hurt).

As mentioned earlier, Manning's have been 70, 60, 53, and 150 (in a 4 pt/TD system). His value would be higher in a 6 pt/TD system, but until this year last year people talking about taking a QB that early would have been lambasted. What changed in a year?

I've said all along that Manning should still have a good season, but the fact of the matter is that people taking him this year will be paying for last year's inflated statistics.

In his first two years and last two years, Edge's value scores have been 186, 179, 79, and 100.

I agree David, but aren't we paying for any of the top 3 RB's last year's statistics.In fact, for Priest Holmes, aren't we paying from 2 years ago if you draft him top 3. He certainly didn't put up top 3 numbers overall last season, we're going on what he could put up when he was Superman a couple years ago and are hoping he can do that again.

The difference is that Holmes, LT, Alexander, and James have established a baseline of what their usual performance level has been. Holmes had back to back seasons of 373 points scored and was on his way to 400 last year when he got hurt (196 points scored in 7.5 games). Those were their established baselines.Manning's baseline has been at a level a lot lower and last year's totals were a great deal higher. Using AVT, Manning's baseline (3-yr average) would be 35 TD. I would say that that is a much better representation than those thinking the baseline for comparison for Manning this year should be in the 40s for TD passes.

Since there will forever be a comparisonto Brady, Brady's AVT number for TD passes is 26.3, so those that believe in the AVT theory would start with Brady being 8.7 TD behind Manning.

If you use the same approach for the RB, their average season would be very similar to their numbers from recent seasons.

I agree with what your saying, but also think that you can't just take the average and make it nice and neat and not think about anything else.You have to take into account player personnel and where they are in their careers as well. Peyton Manning is definately in his prime, to take into account what he did a few years ago skews things. Not only that, he's got Reggie Wayne who's looks to be at the top of his game etc.....Indy's always been good on offense, but that haven't been this good. Then you can take into account any rule changes that may have occured that could benefit the offense.

I'm not here to say Peyton is a top 5 pick, that's for you guys to decide for your own teams. But like many of you, I watched the Colts......they're exciting right. Well, 49 Td's is a lot, but if you watched them like I did you know that he could have easily had 55 td's.

If you were a bookie, and put the over/under at Peyton Manning's TD's for this upcoming season at 35 you would lose A LOT of money.

Not once have I stated what I thought Manning would do. I only reviewed what numbers have shown and what theories suggest where to project and rank him.The numbers normally do not lie, and up until now only 1 QB has had 35 TD in back to back seasons. While you say that that number is too low, how come others haven't been able to do it?

I have to leave but will check in later.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

To those saying he faced a lot of woeful defenses last season...what about the 2 games vs Tenn this season? Stl Louis? Frisco? Brownies? The Texans, who might be worse defensively and gave up one of Manning's huge games last season? Seattle is going to stop him? Etc...even if schedule was a major factor last season, why does this one look like any less of a cakewalk? Plus, people forget, he threw 49 tds in 15 games. That 16th game he played maybe 1 series and sat. 

I'm arguing from playing in a 6 point per passing TD system, but let me ask...for all those citing risk for Manning, why then would you advocate McAllister, McGahee, Holmes, or Portis ahead of him? 2 of those guys disappointed last year, one got hurt, and one has a questionable situation in front of him now. Any could disappoint this season, and I'd argue that it's more likely than Manning doing so.

We know Manning has grade A protection, anticipates and reads coverages probably better than any QB going today,and has great weapons at WR, TE, and the threat of James to play off of. He isn't likely to get hurt, yet carries the potential to score 40-50 Tds again. With the contact rules enforced, nobody can really cover guys like Harrison consistantly, and what safety or LB can run with Clark 1 on 1?

The ONLY knock on Peyton is that he's a QB in a RB's game...but given the depth of RB, isn't this the year to draft a Manning? And even if you get STUCK with all viable RBs gone in round 3, is drafting Owens or Holt the worst thing ever?

I'd say, you get a shot at Manning in your draft, it's worth punching your lotto ticket to see if you can get those 50 tds and be the favorite in your league. If not, a QB who throws 35 TDs isn't exactly a downside to fear.

I'm not as concerned with how players do or where people have them ranking. I am concerned, however, with where to slot them in terms of value on draft day.Much of this thread has focused on whether Manning is a viable Top 5 or even #1 draft pick. IMO, LT, Holmes, Alexander, and Edge are all better options based on what they've already done. The other guys admittedly are riskier (I wouldn't take Portis or McGahee that early either.)

LT's value scores have been 85, 155, 202, and 130. Alexander's have been 127, 119, 127, and 139.

Holmes' value scores in KC have been 142, 220, 231, and 41 (although he was on pace for 400 fantasy points before getting hurt).

As mentioned earlier, Manning's have been 70, 60, 53, and 150 (in a 4 pt/TD system). His value would be higher in a 6 pt/TD system, but until this year last year people talking about taking a QB that early would have been lambasted. What changed in a year?

I've said all along that Manning should still have a good season, but the fact of the matter is that people taking him this year will be paying for last year's inflated statistics.

In his first two years and last two years, Edge's value scores have been 186, 179, 79, and 100.

I agree David, but aren't we paying for any of the top 3 RB's last year's statistics.In fact, for Priest Holmes, aren't we paying from 2 years ago if you draft him top 3. He certainly didn't put up top 3 numbers overall last season, we're going on what he could put up when he was Superman a couple years ago and are hoping he can do that again.

The difference is that Holmes, LT, Alexander, and James have established a baseline of what their usual performance level has been. Holmes had back to back seasons of 373 points scored and was on his way to 400 last year when he got hurt (196 points scored in 7.5 games). Those were their established baselines.Manning's baseline has been at a level a lot lower and last year's totals were a great deal higher. Using AVT, Manning's baseline (3-yr average) would be 35 TD. I would say that that is a much better representation than those thinking the baseline for comparison for Manning this year should be in the 40s for TD passes.

Since there will forever be a comparisonto Brady, Brady's AVT number for TD passes is 26.3, so those that believe in the AVT theory would start with Brady being 8.7 TD behind Manning.

If you use the same approach for the RB, their average season would be very similar to their numbers from recent seasons.

I agree with what your saying, but also think that you can't just take the average and make it nice and neat and not think about anything else.You have to take into account player personnel and where they are in their careers as well. Peyton Manning is definately in his prime, to take into account what he did a few years ago skews things. Not only that, he's got Reggie Wayne who's looks to be at the top of his game etc.....Indy's always been good on offense, but that haven't been this good. Then you can take into account any rule changes that may have occured that could benefit the offense.

I'm not here to say Peyton is a top 5 pick, that's for you guys to decide for your own teams. But like many of you, I watched the Colts......they're exciting right. Well, 49 Td's is a lot, but if you watched them like I did you know that he could have easily had 55 td's.

If you were a bookie, and put the over/under at Peyton Manning's TD's for this upcoming season at 35 you would lose A LOT of money.

Not once have I stated what I thought Manning would do. I only reviewed what numbers have shown and what theories suggest where to project and rank him.The numbers normally do not lie, and up until now only 1 QB has had 35 TD in back to back seasons. While you say that that number is too low, how come others haven't been able to do it?

I have to leave but will check in later.

1. Rule change, think the receivers and TE's have it easier than ever. Are you telling me it's a coincidence that Gonzalez has a career year, Gates breaks the TE record for TE's, Manning throws for 49 td's.......I still can't believe that number.2. Talent: The Colts have kept their key offensive players in tact outside of Pollard.

3. The relative ease in how he did it. Like I said, if he truly or the team truly wanted to......they could have smashed the record.

4. They still haven't improved on defense. No lead is safe, the Colts know this and the time to win is now. There will be a ton of points scored over there again.

 

[zamboni]

One factor that may not have been mentioned is the Colts defense.I don't think anyone is all of a sudden expecting the defense to become a juggernaut, but if it does show some marked improvement, it could necessitate less of a "bombs away" game plan.

 

[ravnzfan]

my problem with Manning's season last year involves a stat I have yet seen discussed...

49 TD's--497 attempts

1 TD every 10 passes thrown

are you kidding me???

his second best season has 33/571 (5.7%), while over his career he has 216/3880 (5.6%)

Favre, the QB with the most TD's of the current group, has 376/7005 (5.4%)

to expect a TD on 10% of his attempts again truely defines reaching for me

consider 600 attempts (very high for a winning team)--he'd have to hit on 6.5% of his tosses to reach 39TD's...a more reasonable expectation, on the high end for Manning if you ask me

he'd have to fall to the middle of the second round for me to consider him, which is obviously not going to happen with people considering him @1.5

 

[Warsteinner]

One factor that may not have been mentioned is the Colts defense.

I don't think anyone is all of a sudden expecting the defense to become a juggernaut, but if it does show some marked improvement, it could necessitate less of a "bombs away" game plan.

Would it surprise anyone if Manning only had 1 or even ZERO TDs after week 1?

Jamal Lewis is capable of running all over Indy's def allowing them to do essentially what NE did in the playoffs earlier this year and hold the ball for 8+ minutes per drive.

 

[David Yudkin]

1. Rule change, think the receivers and TE's have it easier than ever.  Are you telling me it's a coincidence that Gonzalez has a career year, Gates breaks the TE record for TE's, Manning throws for 49 td's.......I still can't believe that  number.

2. Talent: The Colts have kept their key offensive players in tact outside of Pollard.

3. The relative ease in how he did it.  Like I said, if he truly or the team truly wanted to......they could have smashed the record. 

4. They still haven't improved on defense.  No lead is safe, the Colts know this and the time to win is now.  There will be a ton of points scored over there again.

As for the rule change (actually rules enforcement), there have been revisions to rules or changes in policy to enforce them several times over the years. What normally happens is that there is a major difference in Year X, that difference shrinks a lot in Year X + 1, there is some lingering impact in Year X +2, and beyond that things tend to migrate to where there were originally.There are reasons for this, of course, as the league officials are not as fervent in what they call, defenses adjust, players figure out ways to beat the system, etc.

Looking at talent and ease of putting up points, as I mentioned earlier, the repeatability factor in producing at an historic level is very low. If we assume that Manning will have fewer TD this year, the question becomes how many would he lose?

While it is easy to ignore the intangibles, it is very difficult to have everything line up just right again. Tipped balls can go the other way. Players could get hurt that didn't before. The ebb and flow of a game could yield fewer possessions. Refs could call games differently. For whatever reason, things will be difficult to turn out as easy as they did last year.

As others have mentioned, Manning scored at a rate almost twice what he did before. Could that happen again? Sure it could. But I doubt it will happen at as good a rate again.

 

[Shrek]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick.  It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

If Manning only gets 32 TD, NO WAY is he worth a Top 5 pick.

I'm glad someone besides me is saying this.

 

[DaddyFatSacks]

There really is not much of a difference between last years schedule and this years. They play there division rivals and NE, BAL, SD. Then they bring out the teams that Manning will light up like he did last year CLE, SF, STL, CIN, PIT, SEA, ARI. (exempt PIT and maybe CIN)Last year he had GB, OAK, KC, MIN, CHI, DET, DENMaybe his schedule is slightly harder with the addition of CIN and PIT over OAK and DEN. But other than that it looks like he has his 5 games of absolutely lighting people up like he did last year. The one downside is that he doesn't play ARI until week 17 and will prolly not see very much action. Overall I think Manning is going to see a reduction in productionI have him going for 4500 yds and 40 tdsThe Colts love to pass around the goal line and this should keep Manning's numbers up.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick.  It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

If Manning only gets 32 TD, NO WAY is he worth a Top 5 pick.

I'm glad someone besides me is saying this.

I think everyone will agree that IF he gets only 32 Td's that he's not worth a top 5 pick as there will be a QB or 2 that could get more than that and a handful that's not really that far away from it.However, 32 is low or are you talking about him reaching that number by his bye week?

 

[LawFitz]

The numbers normally do not lie, and up until now only 1 QB has had 35 TD in back to back seasons. While you say that that number is too low, how come others haven't been able to do it?

David, I have a great deal of respect for your analyses, but I think you're overlooking some key factors about Manning vs historical precedents.1. Rule change - notice that all offensive numbers were up last year? 9 QBs threw for at least 27 TDs! Do you really think that Manning will only get 32???

2. Evolution of his supporting cast - Wayne, Stokely, Clark - this isn't just the Marvisson show anymore.

3. Edge sux at the goal line - the guy just doesn't have the burst he did before the injury.

4. Manning is getting better and better just through seasoning/experience.

Plus Manning has a cake schedule other that Balt, Pitt and NE. Compare Manning's to Duante's (the only other viable super stud QB); look at their weeks 15-16 scheds! Plus Duante and McNubb literally and figuratively lost the two best WRs in the game.

There's just no other QB in Manning's class this year and he's well worth a top 3 pick. Every year I see guys go RB crazy early and every year it seems half of the Rd 1,2 RBs severely underperform. I'll take Manning as one of the few nearly guaranteed super studs.

To argue that he's gonna drop down to just 32 TDs is totally unreasonable in my opinion given all of these factors.

 

[fballer]

I don't want to quote all the above again. I am in the same camp as David on Manning. Will he have a great year and is he a sure thing barring injury yes. What the discussion centers around is his value. Alot of the reply's on this board on done on emotions and not on statistics as David supplies. One guy brought up the "over and under" and how exciting the Colt's were to watch last year. I smell emotion all over this. As fantasy players don't we want our opponents to make their picks based on emotions. i.e. favorite player, favorite teams, player led me to the championship last year, etc. All this does is causes an inflated value that others benefit from when acted on. Alot of people are making claims that the rules and the changes in the game helped him last year and will help him again. Maybe, but we are talking about something that helps QB's across the board and it is much tougher to say it only benefits one player. It does not have to be said, but Manning does have great value, but where in the scheme of things does that fall with all said ?

 

[Shrek]

As far as I am concerned getting the sure thing of 32 TDs is worth a top 5 pick.  It depends on how well you can draft after the 1st.

If Manning only gets 32 TD, NO WAY is he worth a Top 5 pick.

I'm glad someone besides me is saying this.

I think everyone will agree that IF he gets only 32 Td's that he's not worth a top 5 pick as there will be a QB or 2 that could get more than that and a handful that's not really that far away from it.However, 32 is low or are you talking about him reaching that number by his bye week?

I am saying that unless he approaches something more to the tune of 40-44, he is not worth a top 5 pick, at least not in my league. The loss of value in available RB's between 1.05 and 2.08 will be far greater than the loss of value in QB's within that same range. I'd rather take a RB there, let someone else take Manning, thereby letting one more RB fall. I trust my abilities to find a QB that can get close enough to Manning's projections in a later round to warrant passing on him at 1.05.Can Manning put up 40-44? Undoubtedly. But I would be very uncomfortable with actually projecting him there. By many accounts, their schedule last year was pretty soft, and it it's not that soft this year. I think 32-36 is safer, and at that number, he is not top 5.

 

[David Yudkin]

The numbers normally do not lie, and up until now only 1 QB has had 35 TD in back to back seasons.  While you say that that number is too low, how come others haven't been able to do it?

David, I have a great deal of respect for your analyses, but I think you're overlooking some key factors about Manning vs historical precedents.1. Rule change - notice that all offensive numbers were up last year? 9 QBs threw for at least 27 TDs! Do you really think that Manning will only get 32???

2. Evolution of his supporting cast - Wayne, Stokely, Clark - this isn't just the Marvisson show anymore.

3. Edge sux at the goal line - the guy just doesn't have the burst he did before the injury.

4. Manning is getting better and better just through seasoning/experience.

Plus Manning has a cake schedule other that Balt, Pitt and NE. Compare Manning's to Duante's (the only other viable super stud QB); look at their weeks 15-16 scheds! Plus Duante and McNubb literally and figuratively lost the two best WRs in the game.

There's just no other QB in Manning's class this year and he's well worth a top 3 pick. Every year I see guys go RB crazy early and every year it seems half of the Rd 1,2 RBs severely underperform. I'll take Manning as one of the few nearly guaranteed super studs.

To argue that he's gonna drop down to just 32 TDs is totally unreasonable in my opinion given all of these factors.

I was not the one that assigned Manning 32 TD, someone else did.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I don't want to quote all the above again. I am in the same camp as David on Manning. Will he have a great year and is he a sure thing barring injury yes. What the discussion centers around is his value.

Alot of the reply's on this board on done on emotions and not on statistics as David supplies. One guy brought up the "over and under" and how exciting the Colt's were to watch last year. I smell emotion all over this. As fantasy players don't we want our opponents to make their picks based on emotions. i.e. favorite player, favorite teams, player led me to the championship last year, etc. All this does is causes an inflated value that others benefit from when acted on.

Alot of people are making claims that the rules and the changes in the game helped him last year and will help him again. Maybe, but we are talking about something that helps QB's across the board and it is much tougher to say it only benefits one player.

It does not have to be said, but Manning does have great value, but where in the scheme of things does that fall with all said ?

The "Guy" is Iwannabeacowboy who brought up the over and under and brought up the fact that the Colts are exciting. My favorite team is Dallas and I also like the Lions a lot. With that said..........the Colts are an exciting team to watch, do you somehow disagree with that statement? There is no emotion about that statement, just a popular opinion that the Colts are an exciting team, mostly because they score points.I actually think taking Manning top 5 is a better pick than later in the 1st round. When you take Manning early, you still have a chance at 2 decent backs in rounds 2 and 3 or a top wide receiver and a back.

 

[Warhogs]

I think the easy answer here is that anybody coming off the best year in NFL history at his position is going to be overvalued.I have been thinking though and was wondering does it hurt the team taking Manning at #1 overall more or would it hurt the team taking him at #6? I think the team picking at #1 can still find 2 solid RB at picks #24 and #25. The team picking at #6 can get a solid Rb at pick #19 but at pick #30? I'm not sure....

 

[Alias]

scoring for my league is very interesting this year (12 team)6pt TD's | 1pt per 20 pass yards | -2 INTS | -2 FumblesI just downloaded version L projections from FBG and for Overall he is listed at #3 which is not too surprising, if you take off 100 fantasy points off his projection you have the #3 QB McNabb (C-Pep is #2), conversely if you take 100 points off the top RB you get JJones at #12 and 100 points off the top WR and you get ABoldin at #18.Based on this situation I think you can easily justify a 1st round pick, regarding drafting patterns (last year) he and C-Pep were gone by the middle of the 2nd round and I was kicking myself that neither made it to me at the end of the 2nd round since I wanted C-Pep.

 

[fballer]

I don't want to quote all the above again.  I am in the same camp as David on Manning.  Will he have a great year and is he a sure thing barring injury yes.  What the discussion centers around is his value. 

Alot of the reply's on this board on done on emotions and not on statistics as David supplies.  One guy brought up the "over and under" and how exciting the Colt's were to watch last year.  I smell emotion all over this.  As fantasy players don't we want our opponents to make their picks based on emotions.  i.e. favorite player, favorite teams, player led me to the championship last year, etc.  All this does is causes an inflated value that others benefit from when acted on. 

Alot of people are making claims that the rules and the changes in the game helped him last year and will help him again.  Maybe, but we are talking about something that helps QB's across the board and it is much tougher to say it only benefits one player. 

It does not have to be said, but Manning does have great value, but where in the scheme of things does that fall with all said ?

The "Guy" is Iwannabeacowboy who brought up the over and under and brought up the fact that the Colts are exciting. My favorite team is Dallas and I also like the Lions a lot. With that said..........the Colts are an exciting team to watch, do you somehow disagree with that statement? There is no emotion about that statement, just a popular opinion that the Colts are an exciting team, mostly because they score points.I actually think taking Manning top 5 is a better pick than later in the 1st round. When you take Manning early, you still have a chance at 2 decent backs in rounds 2 and 3 or a top wide receiver and a back.

Sorry for not directly quoting you and I did not mean to make you an example. I don't disagree with your sound strategy of drafting either and I really don't want to get into a debate on if "excitement" is an emotion either. We all have what we consider a sound strategy and good fantasy players will win no matter whom they draft in the first round. Let's just say you have the third pick and choose Manning because he is a sure thing and that makes you feel comfortable. Why, now go in the opposite camp, with runningbacks in the later rounds that are reaches? I would feel more comfortable with this strategy in FLEX leagues for sure.

Speaking for myself, I would rather pick up my dependable RB's first and if I had to have the elite QB try to pick Mcnabb in the third round and still take a flyer on the late round reaches at RB.

Jim