Could Ricky Williams have a large impact in 2008 (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

 

[switz]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

 

[gman8343]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

 

[switz]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

 

[Fallerjw]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

 

[gman8343]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

 

[awesomeness]

If Ronnie Brown gets injured again this season, what evidence is their that Ricky Williams is still a good enough running back to take advantage of the situation?

 

[bcr8f]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

There's so much hate for Ricky. Everyone wants to take revenge on him but I agree with you.

 

[switz]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

That is a very good point. He was the one I had specifically in mind when contemplating Ricky's future, but for some reason I thought they were closer in age.

 

[bcr8f]

If Ronnie Brown gets injured again this season, what evidence is their that Ricky Williams is still a good enough running back to take advantage of the situation?

Typical. What evidence is there he isn't? All the word from the Phins last year was he was in great shape and faster than they expected.

 

[Tau837]

switz got reamed in that other thread because he had Ricky Williams ranked #25 in his current dynasty RB ranking.Here is part of my response to him:

consider he is going to be 31 entering this season and that the last time he had a productive NFL season was 2003... 5 years ago. Can anyone provide an example in which a player had 4 unproductive years and then came back to put up even a single season worthy of a top 25 ranking?

Neither switz nor any other poster responded to provide any examples. I doubt there are any.Now, this thread isn't necessarily saying Williams will be a top 25 RB over the next 2+ years. The more generic question of whether or not he will have a large impact depends on how one defines large impact.

 

[hitmenssharpshooters]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

That is a very good point. He was the one I had specifically in mind when contemplating Ricky's future, but for some reason I thought they were closer in age.

Jamal Lewis has played 91 games with 9 years proRicky has played 83 games with 7 years pro

 

[switz]

switz got reamed in that other thread because he had Ricky Williams ranked #25 in his current dynasty RB ranking.Here is part of my response to him:

consider he is going to be 31 entering this season and that the last time he had a productive NFL season was 2003... 5 years ago. Can anyone provide an example in which a player had 4 unproductive years and then came back to put up even a single season worthy of a top 25 ranking?

Neither switz nor any other poster responded to provide any examples. I doubt there are any.Now, this thread isn't necessarily saying Williams will be a top 25 RB over the next 2+ years. The more generic question of whether or not he will have a large impact depends on how one defines large impact.

Sorry JWB, I didn't even see that response.As for top 25, you are talking about a borderline #2 RB for fantasy purposes. Do you really think Ricky is not capable of producing that?And, while not an RB, Doug Flutie came back from more years away, and put up a couple very good seasons, as an older player. I'm sure if anyone had asked for an example at QB when Flutie was making his comeback, no one would have had any. But that's the problem with relying too much on past examples. Sometimes there are no past examples to fit a current situation.Perhaps Robert Edwards is a decent example, especially considering he came back from a far worse situation than Williams. But he did come back, and looked decent briefly. And that's not really a fair comparison either, since Williams ha never had a devastating injury like Edwards had.

 

[gianmarco]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

You got reamed for ranking him in the top 25 in a dynasty format above guys like DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, Lendale White, Edge, Bradshaw, etc.There's a difference in having a short-term impact and being ranked that high in a dynasty format.

 

[MAC_32]

If Ronnie Brown gets injured again this season, what evidence is their that Ricky Williams is still a good enough running back to take advantage of the situation?

There isn't, but for a last round pick in a deep league it's certainly worth a shot. Low risk/high reward.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

consider he is going to be 31 entering this season and that the last time he had a productive NFL season was 2003... 5 years ago. Can anyone provide an example in which a player had 4 unproductive years and then came back to put up even a single season worthy of a top 25 ranking?

I agree with your conclusion that #25 is way too high. But the reasoning in your last sentence is rather unpersuasive unless you can provide a bunch of examples of former NFL rushing title holders who had four unproductive years largely due to non-football-related issues and then came back, got an opportunity to play, and fared poorly.Ricky Williams 2008 is in a somewhat unique situation. So statistical arguments along the lines of "nobody's been in his situation and succeeded" or "nobody's been in his situation and failed" are not going to be worth much, IMO.

 

[switz]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

You got reamed for ranking him in the top 25 in a dynasty format above guys like DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, Lendale White, Edge, Bradshaw, etc.There's a difference in having a short-term impact and being ranked that high in a dynasty format.

I also explained that I only rank based on 2-3 years out. And in that case, I think his 2-3 year window is probably better than the other players mentioned. (DW - probably not the answer in CAR, Jones - NYJ rumored ot be drafting a RB, White - not very good, Edge - on his way downhill, Bradshaw - COP, and the list goes on)You yourself seem to think this year Ricky will be good, and doesn't that raise the possibility he goes somewhere else in '09 as a starter? He's got low mileage, and high talent....

 

[MAC_32]

Jamal Lewis has played 91 games with 9 years proRicky has played 83 games with 7 years pro

There is little to no statistical evidence to support that a players' career workload has a negative or positive impact on a guys' performance after they've turned 30. There is a laundry list of evidence regarding players declining once they hit 30 though, regardless of workload.

 

[gianmarco]

switz got reamed in that other thread because he had Ricky Williams ranked #25 in his current dynasty RB ranking.

Here is part of my response to him:

consider he is going to be 31 entering this season and that the last time he had a productive NFL season was 2003... 5 years ago. Can anyone provide an example in which a player had 4 unproductive years and then came back to put up even a single season worthy of a top 25 ranking?

Neither switz nor any other poster responded to provide any examples. I doubt there are any.Now, this thread isn't necessarily saying Williams will be a top 25 RB over the next 2+ years. The more generic question of whether or not he will have a large impact depends on how one defines large impact.

Sorry JWB, I didn't even see that response.As for top 25, you are talking about a borderline #2 RB for fantasy purposes. Do you really think Ricky is not capable of producing that?

And, while not an RB, Doug Flutie came back from more years away, and put up a couple very good seasons, as an older player. I'm sure if anyone had asked for an example at QB when Flutie was making his comeback, no one would have had any. But that's the problem with relying too much on past examples. Sometimes there are no past examples to fit a current situation.

Perhaps Robert Edwards is a decent example, especially considering he came back from a far worse situation than Williams. But he did come back, and looked decent briefly. And that's not really a fair comparison either, since Williams ha never had a devastating injury like Edwards had.

In a redraft, I wouldn't have an argument with your ranking. I wouldn't necessarily agree with it, but I can definitely see someone having Ricky that high.In a dynasty, being a borderline#2 RB does NOT equal a top 25 ranking. This is the reason that dynasty rankings are separate from redrafts and usually there are large discrepancies between the two. You seemed to completely ignore the dynasty aspect in that list, especially with regards to Ricky, thus generating the "reaming".

ETA--This is even when only looking at a 2-3 year window. Using a short-term window like that is fine, but you can't completely turn blinders to the future. If you are giving up guys like White or D. Williams for Ricky, I think you're making a huge error in using that 2-3 year window to determine value.

 

[gianmarco]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

You got reamed for ranking him in the top 25 in a dynasty format above guys like DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, Lendale White, Edge, Bradshaw, etc.There's a difference in having a short-term impact and being ranked that high in a dynasty format.

I also explained that I only rank based on 2-3 years out. And in that case, I think his 2-3 year window is probably better than the other players mentioned. (DW - probably not the answer in CAR, Jones - NYJ rumored ot be drafting a RB, White - not very good, Edge - on his way downhill, Bradshaw - COP, and the list goes on)You yourself seem to think this year Ricky will be good, and doesn't that raise the possibility he goes somewhere else in '09 as a starter? He's got low mileage, and high talent....

I've been a long-time believer in Ricky's talent and often in the minority in regards to him coming back and producing. However, just because I posted this link and said he might have an IMPACT doesn't mean I think this year Ricky will be good. I think he will be in a RBBC at best and I won't bother with him unless he comes at a super cheap price. And no, I think the chances of him going somewhere in '09 as a starter are slim to none, especially with the depth of talent coming out at the college level. I can't imagine a single team handing over the reigns to him given his time off from football, his off-field issues, and his age.

 

[switz]

n a redraft, I wouldn't have an argument with your ranking. I wouldn't necessarily agree with it, but I can definitely see someone having Ricky that high.

Fair enough, and that's more in line with the topic at hand in this thread I guess.

In a dynasty, being a borderline#2 RB does NOT equal a top 25 ranking. This is the reason that dynasty rankings are separate from redrafts and usually there are large discrepancies between the two. You seemed to completely ignore the dynasty aspect in that list, especially with regards to Ricky, thus generating the "reaming".

I've been in a dynasty & keeper leagues for like 18 years now, and I guess I just rank for dynasties differently than the majority. I will need to bear that in mind when seeing what I consider overly harsh and absurd responses on the board.Thanks for the fair reply, and the insight you've provided.

 

[Sweet Love]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

That is a very good point. He was the one I had specifically in mind when contemplating Ricky's future, but for some reason I thought they were closer in age.

Ricky stayed all four years and I believe Lewis was a 21 year old rookie. Without looking it up, I think Ricky came out one year ahead of Lewis , but was also 1-2 years older, which accounts for the difference in age. Mileage, though, is a whole 'nother ball game.

 

[awesomeness]

If Ronnie Brown gets injured again this season, what evidence is their that Ricky Williams is still a good enough running back to take advantage of the situation?

Typical. What evidence is there he isn't? All the word from the Phins last year was he was in great shape and faster than they expected.

Well i live in Canada and i witnessed him play horribly in the CFL. And in the one game in which Ricky played in this past season, he had something like 6 carries for 15 yards and 1 fumble. And from that game and from his games in the CFL he ran with no burst and he ran way too conservatively.

 

[switz]

If Ronnie Brown gets injured again this season, what evidence is their that Ricky Williams is still a good enough running back to take advantage of the situation?

Typical. What evidence is there he isn't? All the word from the Phins last year was he was in great shape and faster than they expected.

Well i live in Canada and i witnessed him play horribly in the CFL. And in the one game in which Ricky played in this past season, he had something like 6 carries for 15 yards and 1 fumble. And from that game and from his games in the CFL he ran with no burst and he ran way too conservatively.

The CFL though is a completely different ball game. Pinball Clemens never would have made it in the NFL, whereas Williams was very good at times in the NFL.And you can't really base anything on his first game back last season, shaking the rust off, nor the fumble (didn't that happen on the play when he was injured?) which IIRC most RBs would have dropped the ball on that play.

 

[hitmenssharpshooters]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

That is a very good point. He was the one I had specifically in mind when contemplating Ricky's future, but for some reason I thought they were closer in age.

Ricky stayed all four years and I believe Lewis was a 21 year old rookie. Without looking it up, I think Ricky came out one year ahead of Lewis , but was also 1-2 years older, which accounts for the difference in age. Mileage, though, is a whole 'nother ball game.

Ricky came out in '99Jamal came out in '00

 

[Tau837]

consider he is going to be 31 entering this season and that the last time he had a productive NFL season was 2003... 5 years ago. Can anyone provide an example in which a player had 4 unproductive years and then came back to put up even a single season worthy of a top 25 ranking?

I agree with your conclusion that #25 is way too high. But the reasoning in your last sentence is rather unpersuasive unless you can provide a bunch of examples of former NFL rushing title holders who had four unproductive years largely due to non-football-related issues and then came back, got an opportunity to play, and fared poorly.Ricky Williams 2008 is in a somewhat unique situation. So statistical arguments along the lines of "nobody's been in his situation and succeeded" or "nobody's been in his situation and failed" are not going to be worth much, IMO.

I agree that a lack of previous examples isn't conclusive.However, to begin with, the list of 31 year old RBs who have had productive seasons (depending on one's definition of productive) is not long. And the guys on that list were generally productive players in the years leading up to age 31, with no long term breaks in conditioning/training, coaching/study, and/or game play. IMO it stands to reason that a long period of inactivity and/or unproductivity makes it less likely for a 31 year old RB to succeed.It would be a more intriguing question if a player like Williams had one or two productive years, then had a 4 year stint like Williams has had, and was returning at age 28 or 29. To do so at age 31 is beyond the point I can reasonably believe he will succeed, at least in fantasy terms. Now, from the Dolphins' perspective, he may succeed in meeting their expectations, which I presume are not particularly high. But I don't think that is the point of our discussion here.If there were a single example of someone producing in similar conditions, it would at least show it can be done. As of now, we have no conclusive evidence it cannot be done, but we also have no conclusive evidence it can be. That's why I asked.

 

[awesomeness]

If Ronnie Brown gets injured again this season, what evidence is their that Ricky Williams is still a good enough running back to take advantage of the situation?

Typical. What evidence is there he isn't? All the word from the Phins last year was he was in great shape and faster than they expected.

Well i live in Canada and i witnessed him play horribly in the CFL. And in the one game in which Ricky played in this past season, he had something like 6 carries for 15 yards and 1 fumble. And from that game and from his games in the CFL he ran with no burst and he ran way too conservatively.

The CFL though is a completely different ball game. Pinball Clemens never would have made it in the NFL, whereas Williams was very good at times in the NFL.And you can't really base anything on his first game back last season, shaking the rust off, nor the fumble (didn't that happen on the play when he was injured?) which IIRC most RBs would have dropped the ball on that play.

Even though the CFL is a different game than the NFL, that doesn't mean we should just ignore everything that happened while he was there. And the skills a running back needs to succeed in the CFL are essentially the same needed to succeed in the NFL.

 

[Tau837]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

You got reamed for ranking him in the top 25 in a dynasty format above guys like DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, Lendale White, Edge, Bradshaw, etc.There's a difference in having a short-term impact and being ranked that high in a dynasty format.

I also explained that I only rank based on 2-3 years out. And in that case, I think his 2-3 year window is probably better than the other players mentioned. (DW - probably not the answer in CAR, Jones - NYJ rumored ot be drafting a RB, White - not very good, Edge - on his way downhill, Bradshaw - COP, and the list goes on)You yourself seem to think this year Ricky will be good, and doesn't that raise the possibility he goes somewhere else in '09 as a starter? He's got low mileage, and high talent....

Since you never saw my post in the other thread, here was my comment on your low mileage statement, along with the full post:

As for Ricky Williams, that was probably a very shortsighted ranking. I don't see Brown being rcovered this year, and because of that I think Ricky will see the #1 RB role in MIA for this season. And I think he'll play well enough to get a shot at the #1 gig with another team the following season. Ricky's problem has never been talent, just a head case. If he's matured and gotten it under control, he's low mileage. Could do what Jamal Lewis did last year for a few years yet.

I don't project out 5 years like a lot of the great dynasty guys here. Just 2 or 3, I'm not good enough to speculate much further into the future.

I agree with you about how far into the future to project as a general rule (with some exceptions, of course). However, I completely disagree with your ranking of Ricky Williams.First off, on his mileage. He is 9th among active RBs with 1763 carries. Add to that that he had 1011 carries in college, one of the highest totals in history, and then throw in his CFL carries... that does not strike me as low mileage.

Then consider he is going to be 31 entering this season and that the last time he had a productive NFL season was 2003... 5 years ago. Can anyone provide an example in which a player had 4 unproductive years and then came back to put up even a single season worthy of a top 25 ranking? And then realize that this is a dynasty ranking...

 

[MAC_32]

If Ronnie Brown gets injured again this season, what evidence is their that Ricky Williams is still a good enough running back to take advantage of the situation?

Typical. What evidence is there he isn't? All the word from the Phins last year was he was in great shape and faster than they expected.

Well i live in Canada and i witnessed him play horribly in the CFL. And in the one game in which Ricky played in this past season, he had something like 6 carries for 15 yards and 1 fumble. And from that game and from his games in the CFL he ran with no burst and he ran way too conservatively.

The CFL is made for scat back, not between the tackles power type RB's. I don't think you can take Ricky's north of the border performance and say it can explain how he'll do in the NFL.

 

[switz]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

You got reamed for ranking him in the top 25 in a dynasty format above guys like DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, Lendale White, Edge, Bradshaw, etc.There's a difference in having a short-term impact and being ranked that high in a dynasty format.

I also explained that I only rank based on 2-3 years out. And in that case, I think his 2-3 year window is probably better than the other players mentioned. (DW - probably not the answer in CAR, Jones - NYJ rumored ot be drafting a RB, White - not very good, Edge - on his way downhill, Bradshaw - COP, and the list goes on)You yourself seem to think this year Ricky will be good, and doesn't that raise the possibility he goes somewhere else in '09 as a starter? He's got low mileage, and high talent....

Since you never saw my post in the other thread, here was my comment on your low mileage statement, along with the full post:

As for Ricky Williams, that was probably a very shortsighted ranking. I don't see Brown being rcovered this year, and because of that I think Ricky will see the #1 RB role in MIA for this season. And I think he'll play well enough to get a shot at the #1 gig with another team the following season. Ricky's problem has never been talent, just a head case. If he's matured and gotten it under control, he's low mileage. Could do what Jamal Lewis did last year for a few years yet.

I don't project out 5 years like a lot of the great dynasty guys here. Just 2 or 3, I'm not good enough to speculate much further into the future.

I agree with you about how far into the future to project as a general rule (with some exceptions, of course). However, I completely disagree with your ranking of Ricky Williams.First off, on his mileage. He is 9th among active RBs with 1763 carries. Add to that that he had 1011 carries in college, one of the highest totals in history, and then throw in his CFL carries... that does not strike me as low mileage.

Then consider he is going to be 31 entering this season and that the last time he had a productive NFL season was 2003... 5 years ago. Can anyone provide an example in which a player had 4 unproductive years and then came back to put up even a single season worthy of a top 25 ranking? And then realize that this is a dynasty ranking...

Thanks for posting it again. That is an interesting point about mileage. I don't think his layoff necessarily hurts him as much as you do, and I still see a 2-3 year window of good stats as a possibility. Though I am leaning to thinking that is less likely than I was thinking it was. i.e. possible versus probable.

 

[Interseptopus]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

That is a very good point. He was the one I had specifically in mind when contemplating Ricky's future, but for some reason I thought they were closer in age.

Ricky stayed all four years and I believe Lewis was a 21 year old rookie. Without looking it up, I think Ricky came out one year ahead of Lewis , but was also 1-2 years older, which accounts for the difference in age. Mileage, though, is a whole 'nother ball game.

Ricky came out in '99Jamal came out in '00

a 3 year contract is hardly breaking bank for a 29 year old RB (29 in August)... I'm sure he was disappointed but realized this was the best situation for him. Unfortunately I can't find the financial terms of the contract, but I;m sure Lewis was looking for a deal more in the 5 year range. He's 29 this season, will be a FA when he'll be 32 for the start of the season... how many NFL RBs get huge contracts then???

IF ricky williams was able to play well enough to land himself a contract with any team next season, it won't be big. I highly doubt he has a "breakout" year...

He hasn't had more than 170 carries since 2003. He had only 6 carries last year....

Hell, prior to this year I hadn't played competative basketball in an organized league for 4 years, and I took a charge and was feeling it for a full week after... My body's not what it used to be apparently.

There's a very strong case to be had that he won't have a breakout year... he's 31 (yes, I understand that there's nothing that proves RBs decline after 30, but if a team has a choice between a 32 year old RB as their #1 or a 22 year old RB as their #1, they'll go with the 22 year old), he hasn't carried the ball much since 2003, spent how many years over in another country smoking pot and not working out...

Sure, MIA officials will say he's in the best shape they've seen- they haven't seen much of him since 2003!! I don't think ANY of them were around at all back then... how many coaching changes have they had since 2003...

Now I'm not saying he can't contribute... but let's not go crazy here over predictions for Ricky Williams in 2008.... be realistic

EDIT: And the argument from The Replacements does not apply here: "He'll be well-rested then"...

 

[gianmarco]

Btw, I actually was intending this to be more of a "how Ricky will impact Brown" considering Brown is still being ranked in the top 10-15. If Ricky does come in and take a sizeable chunk, which I do think he can and likely will, then Brown's #'s could suffer tremendously. The main reason he was so effective in the beginning of last year was the fact he was the entire focus of the offense. Brown could be severely overrated going into this year with this news.

 

[Scooby1974]

If Ricky is indeed in shape, I could see him doing some of the goal-line dirty work. This would save Brown some beating, and could make Ricky quite valuable in a 6pts/TD league. I picked him up and stashed him hoping that would go down last year, unfortunately he came up lame.

Run Ricky Run! I'd love to see this guy get a chance to come out ,tear things up, and redeem himself a bit at age 31.

 

[hitmenssharpshooters]

I think there are many Ricky haters out there that would love to see him be non-productive. I don't believe he will rush for 1k yards or anything close. I am more concerned with will R Brown be 100% when the season starts? Will Ricky carry the load by himself if Brown isn't healthy? Will Parcells draft a RB?

I would look more at his yards per carry and rush TD's..situational.

No one can provide an example of an older player taking time off and coming back and being productive. Can anyone provide an example of a player who took time off and came back and was non-productive? I know you can't compare sports and I know you can't compare legends in one sport to above average players in other sports but what about MJ's second stint on Chicago? what about Mario Lemiux? I would say these guys came back in later years and were productive. MJ was still productive in Washington as a player...not a GM.

Besides..isn't he already better than half the RB's in the league without even seeing him play?

I bet there is a guy in Denver that would give him a shot.

 

[ukshane]

He was getting tackled one on one during a recent episode of Pro's vs. Joe's. He is officially done.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

No longer able to speculate wildly about David Boston, the FF community really needed Ricky this year.

 

[Traders2001]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

Not so good posting ....Lewis at 28 has a lot ( A huge lot ) more wear and tear then Williams at 31 .

 

[BigJim®]

I think Ricky Williams will be HUGE this year. I'm talking David Boston circa 2007 HUGE.

 

[gianmarco]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

Not so good posting ....Lewis at 28 has a lot ( A huge lot ) more wear and tear then Williams at 31 .

You sure? Jamal Lewis has 2120 NFL carries (27th all time) vs. Ricky Williams with 1763 (44th all time)That's 350 more carries, or essentially 1 season's worth. I wouldn't call that a HUGE lot. Factor in Ricky's extremely heavy college workload, and the difference between the 2 in terms of mileage is really insignificant. Factor in Ricky's absence from the league and older age and I'd trust Jamal with a full workload much more than Ricky at this point.

 

[bigmurd]

How is Ricky even news anymore?

 

[gianmarco]

How is Ricky even news anymore?

Because he could play a key role in Miami's rushing game come 2008?This isn't about whether or not he has any relevant fantasy value (I think it's limited at best), but to ignore him and what he could do to Ronnie Brown would be foolish.

 

[Tau837]

You sure? Jamal Lewis has 2120 NFL carries (27th all time) vs. Ricky Williams with 1763 (44th all time)That's 350 more carries, or essentially 1 season's worth. I wouldn't call that a HUGE lot. Factor in Ricky's extremely heavy college workload, and the difference between the 2 in terms of mileage is really insignificant. Factor in Ricky's absence from the league and older age and I'd trust Jamal with a full workload much more than Ricky at this point.

On the college workload, Ricky had 1011 carries. I don't know where to find Lewis's total carries, but, as an example, in 1998 he had 73. And he only played two other seasons, so I suspect Ricky more than doubled Lewis's workload in college, and more than made up for the 357 carry NFL gap.

 

[MAC_32]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

Not so good posting ....Lewis at 28 has a lot ( A huge lot ) more wear and tear then Williams at 31 .

Statistically speaking, irrelevant.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

consider he is going to be 31 entering this season and that the last time he had a productive NFL season was 2003... 5 years ago. Can anyone provide an example in which a player had 4 unproductive years and then came back to put up even a single season worthy of a top 25 ranking?

I agree with your conclusion that #25 is way too high. But the reasoning in your last sentence is rather unpersuasive unless you can provide a bunch of examples of former NFL rushing title holders who had four unproductive years largely due to non-football-related issues and then came back, got an opportunity to play, and fared poorly.Ricky Williams 2008 is in a somewhat unique situation. So statistical arguments along the lines of "nobody's been in his situation and succeeded" or "nobody's been in his situation and failed" are not going to be worth much, IMO.

I agree that a lack of previous examples isn't conclusive.However, to begin with, the list of 31 year old RBs who have had productive seasons (depending on one's definition of productive) is not long. And the guys on that list were generally productive players in the years leading up to age 31, with no long term breaks in conditioning/training, coaching/study, and/or game play. IMO it stands to reason that a long period of inactivity and/or unproductivity makes it less likely for a 31 year old RB to succeed.

It would be a more intriguing question if a player like Williams had one or two productive years, then had a 4 year stint like Williams has had, and was returning at age 28 or 29. To do so at age 31 is beyond the point I can reasonably believe he will succeed, at least in fantasy terms. Now, from the Dolphins' perspective, he may succeed in meeting their expectations, which I presume are not particularly high. But I don't think that is the point of our discussion here.

If there were a single example of someone producing in similar conditions, it would at least show it can be done. As of now, we have no conclusive evidence it cannot be done, but we also have no conclusive evidence it can be. That's why I asked.

Like I said, I agree with your conclusion. And I agree with the part of your reasoning that says being 31 works against him, and that having been out of the league for a bit works against him. I just don't agree with the part of the argument that goes, "Nobody with these attributes has ever succeeded, therefore this person is unlikely to succeed." How many people have had those attributes? If zero out of zero people in his position have succeeded . . . well, zero out of zero people who've run a 2.7-second forty have succeeded as well, but that doesn't mean someone who runs a 2.7-second forty would be at a disadvantage.In this case, I'm just being nitpicky. But I've recently seen similar arguments about Michael Turner that I think have the same defect. ("Name another RB who was a backup for four years and then changed teams who has succeeded." "Oh yeah? Name another RB who averaged 5.5 YPC on more than 200 carries during his first four years in the league who failed." People can go back and forth cherry-picking different subsets of a player's attributes like that and reaching contrary conclusions. If the same form of argument can lead to mutually contradictory conclusions, it means that form of argument is suspect.)

 

[awesomeness]

If Ronnie Brown gets injured again this season, what evidence is their that Ricky Williams is still a good enough running back to take advantage of the situation?

Typical. What evidence is there he isn't? All the word from the Phins last year was he was in great shape and faster than they expected.

Well i live in Canada and i witnessed him play horribly in the CFL. And in the one game in which Ricky played in this past season, he had something like 6 carries for 15 yards and 1 fumble. And from that game and from his games in the CFL he ran with no burst and he ran way too conservatively.

The CFL is made for scat back, not between the tackles power type RB's. I don't think you can take Ricky's north of the border performance and say it can explain how he'll do in the NFL.

The leading rusher in the CFL last year was a 6'0, 224 pounds, power back. The major problem with Ricky was that he didn't show power or speed in the CFL, or even in pros vs. joes apparently.

 

[Golden Mike Tomczak]

I suppose it is possible.

Personally I don't think its very likely. He was cut down by Pittsburgh early and he didn't look to great when he was in there.

 

[AB in DC]

He'll have as much of an impact as any other backup RB.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Last year it was going to be a RBBC with Chatman. That lasted all of 2 games. This year it's the completely unreliable Ricky Williams. Right. Brown convincingly showed last year that he was better when he didn't share the load. In fact, in each of the 3 years of his career, his lowest yards per carry occurs in the 1st quarter. He gets better with more carries. Cameron figured it out. I'm sure the new regime has as well.

But just for fun, can someone please tell me what it is, at this stage of their careers, that Ricky does better than Brown? Take a look at their splits. Brown is better on first down. For his career, he has averaged over 4.7 ypc while Williams (since 2002) has averaged under 4 ypc. OK, so maybe you can't compare them because most of that occurred while playing for different teams. But, even in the year they played together, 2005, Brown averaged 5 ypc and WIlliams averaged 3.9 ypc. So he isn't going to replace him on 1st down. Maybe Ricky is currently a better receiver. Nope. Brown's yards per catch is going up while Ricky's is going down. Williams isn't replacing him on 3rd down. How about the goal line? For his career, Brown has had 21 carries inside the opponent's 5 yard line. He has scored 10 TD's, a rate of 47%. Williams has 15 TD's on 45 carries, a rate of 33%. So, he isn't better there. What about short yardage? Brown gets 5.8 ypc on 23 carries in his career on 3rd/4th down and 2 yards or less. Ricky averages 4.3 since 2002. It looks like Brown is better there as well.

SO, if Brown is better on 1st down, 3rd down, in short yardage, at the goal line, and gets better as the game goes on, why on earth would the Miami staff consider a RRBC? The only way Brown sees his carries reduced is if he is not ready to go when the season starts.

 

[Tau837]

consider he is going to be 31 entering this season and that the last time he had a productive NFL season was 2003... 5 years ago. Can anyone provide an example in which a player had 4 unproductive years and then came back to put up even a single season worthy of a top 25 ranking?

I agree with your conclusion that #25 is way too high. But the reasoning in your last sentence is rather unpersuasive unless you can provide a bunch of examples of former NFL rushing title holders who had four unproductive years largely due to non-football-related issues and then came back, got an opportunity to play, and fared poorly.Ricky Williams 2008 is in a somewhat unique situation. So statistical arguments along the lines of "nobody's been in his situation and succeeded" or "nobody's been in his situation and failed" are not going to be worth much, IMO.

I agree that a lack of previous examples isn't conclusive.However, to begin with, the list of 31 year old RBs who have had productive seasons (depending on one's definition of productive) is not long. And the guys on that list were generally productive players in the years leading up to age 31, with no long term breaks in conditioning/training, coaching/study, and/or game play. IMO it stands to reason that a long period of inactivity and/or unproductivity makes it less likely for a 31 year old RB to succeed.

It would be a more intriguing question if a player like Williams had one or two productive years, then had a 4 year stint like Williams has had, and was returning at age 28 or 29. To do so at age 31 is beyond the point I can reasonably believe he will succeed, at least in fantasy terms. Now, from the Dolphins' perspective, he may succeed in meeting their expectations, which I presume are not particularly high. But I don't think that is the point of our discussion here.

If there were a single example of someone producing in similar conditions, it would at least show it can be done. As of now, we have no conclusive evidence it cannot be done, but we also have no conclusive evidence it can be. That's why I asked.

Like I said, I agree with your conclusion. And I agree with the part of your reasoning that says being 31 works against him, and that having been out of the league for a bit works against him. I just don't agree with the part of the argument that goes, "Nobody with these attributes has ever succeeded, therefore this person is unlikely to succeed." How many people have had those attributes? If zero out of zero people in his position have succeeded . . . well, zero out of zero people who've run a 2.7-second forty have succeeded as well, but that doesn't mean someone who runs a 2.7-second forty would be at a disadvantage.In this case, I'm just being nitpicky. But I've recently seen similar arguments about Michael Turner that I think have the same defect. ("Name another RB who was a backup for four years and then changed teams who has succeeded." "Oh yeah? Name another RB who averaged 5.5 YPC on more than 200 carries during his first four years in the league who failed." People can go back and forth cherry-picking different subsets of a player's attributes like that and reaching contrary conclusions. If the same form of argument can lead to mutually contradictory conclusions, it means that form of argument is suspect.)

Understood. One comment, though. I would say this is a case of "Any player is so unlikely to succeed in this situation, it likely explains why no one else has ever succeeded in this situation, and why this particular player is also unlikely to do so" rather than how you phrased it above. I don't agree that the same distinction can be drawn for the other analogies you cited above. But I can agree to disagree on it at this point.

 

[Tanner9919]

Touch me, please

"Despite losing their top two running backs to season-ending injuries last season, the Dolphins haven't signed a tailback in free agency and seem confident that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will answer the bell on opening day next season."

I think this could potentially hurt Brown's value a significant bit if this turns into a RBBC, which I can easily see.

I got reamed in a thread a few days ago because I expect Ricky to have a huge year, and then sign a big contract next offseason because of it.

I wouldn't ream you for saying he's going to have a huge year, that's possible, but signing a big contract in the offseason is highly unlikely IMO. Not many 31 year old RBs with highly questionable character issues sign big contracts.

Jamal Lewis down?

No, but he's still only 28.

That is a very good point. He was the one I had specifically in mind when contemplating Ricky's future, but for some reason I thought they were closer in age.

Fred Taylor is 32, and went to the Pro Bowl last season. There is evidence to suggest that an oft-used RB (George, Alexander) will breakdown at 30/31 yrs of age, its almost guaranteed.But, a guy like Fred Taylor will buck the trend, because he doesn't have the carries that the others did, neither does Ricky Williams. The guy has been out of football for years now, has very few carries on his resume, and probably has a lot ot offer the Dolphins this season as a result!