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Could the Bills be the breakout offense of 2014? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
As a Bills fan, I'm more sold on their talent than on their offensive coordinator. I think there's a very real chance that Hackett holds them back. He really did not seem capable of putting together an offense that used the talents of his players well. Very few adjustments in game or from game to game.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
I like their talent around their starting quarterback.
Now they just need to find a new starting quarterback IMO.
Now they just need to find a new starting quarterback IMO.
Gargoylez
Footballguy
If the Bills can Kordell Stewart the offense, I think they will balance out and excel. EJ will never be known as a sharp shooter, but simplifying the offense to make throws easier could really help him. Watkins is a quick pass make people miss playmaker, so I hope thats what they do.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
no
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Interesting piece Sigmond. I do think you forced some things. Foles was drafted in most every league I was in. His numbers in week 16/17 were decent, but not type that won fantasy championships on their own. The offensive explosion in Philly wasn't really unexpected as you suggest. I realize that a good lead in is important from an article standpoint to draw in readers, but you made some reaches here that IMO call into question your thought process.
People were excited about Chip for sure, but was Foles really drafted in 12 team/20 round drafts with Vick the clear starter coming out of camp? I'm more curious what you think of Buffalo's offense this year, but I appreciate the writing feedback
Foles was drafted in every league I can remember. Vick wasn't a picture of health.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
The answer you are looking for is Tampa Bay
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I think the answer is "Yes."
The key word here is "could" and obviously QB is an important issue. One factor besides QB people should talk about is Doug Marrone.
BUF runs a ton of plays, they just added Wallace and Brown, and they now go 4-5 deep at WR. One major deficiency is still TE, I really thought they would finally address that position in the draft.
One thought about Manuel vs Foles: they are not remotely similar I would say but one thing Philly did was start with Vick and then had a backup as a prospect. I don't know that BUF has this. I saw Lewis live last year and I'm not sure he is up to being a FF starter.
Another thing that should always concern about owning BUF players: the weather in December can be a pain in the neck right around FF playoff time, consider that.
I also like Tampa Bay as a breakout offense candidate under Tedford. I'd like to know which other teams people think might break out. It wasn't just Philly last year, there was also SD, CHI and KC.
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Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
Offense no....Defense yes
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I dont think the entire KC offense broke out last year. J.Charles did, but no one else on the offense was startable in FF.
Pittsburgh could rebound some with a healthy Heath Miller and a full year of Bell, Wheaton/Bryant in addition to A.Brown
I dont belive in Buffalo mostly because I dont believe in EJ Manuel
Look for Minnesota, I think they should just hand the ball to Teddy, they got Norv a good TE, a stud RB, Cordarrelle & Jennings
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Why? I like Tedford as OC, with McCown, a healthy Martin, VJAX, Evans, ASJ. whats not to like?
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Is Lewis that much of a risk to Manuel this year? I had thought that Manuel would clearly be the guy, as long as he is healthy.
For those of you dismissing BUF improving with a short "No", what in particular do you think is the reason?
You think they can still repeat as the #1 team in rushing attempts? #3 team in plays per game?
You think they can still repeat as the #1 team in rushing attempts? #3 team in plays per game?
MAC_32
Footballguy
EJ Manuel and coaching I am not sold on. All the weapons in the world won't lead to a good offense if the coaching and QB play isn't up to par.
spider321
Footballguy
Still can't get over the fact that they traded their 1st round pick next year for Sammy Watkins.
Yes, Watkins will be a very good NFL WR, but their QB and much of the rest of the team are terrible.
If anything, they should be trading down to get some more talented players.
Stupid, stupid, decision.
Yes, Watkins will be a very good NFL WR, but their QB and much of the rest of the team are terrible.
If anything, they should be trading down to get some more talented players.
Stupid, stupid, decision.
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
QB is my main concern as well. Didn't see enough last year to think his play will jump this year.
Tampa is an interesting team to bring up for sure - Tedford was once know as one of the preeminent offensive geniuses in college football. Cal really fell off after he become more of a "CEO" in the second half of his tenure there. They could definitely tilt pass heavy, and surprise us by using Sims a lot more than we think (undermining Martin a bit for FF). Some of it will come down to how quickly the rookies can adjust and how McCown is with a new set of twin towers... another very important offense to monitor
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I can see criticism for Manuel, but what other positions are still "terrible" for Buffalo that weren't addressed?
I understand the hesitation on Manuel, but he was actually very good for a rookie thrown into the deep end in the first month of the season. Since they brought in QB coach that he riffs with, I would hope that they can set him up to succeed. The offense will probably have a lot of quick passing and then deep passing set up by play action. If the deep accuracy can just get a little better, he can be closer to Foles than people think. I do believe Foles gets too much credit for his success when you watch how he actually played. The system created the matchups/reads for him exploit. He did a good job following through, but I think Manuel can be a similar "stay faithful to the playcall" QB.
its a coaching staff that sees new ownership coming and feels like it's now or never. I think it's rational to mortgage the future when you aren't even sure it will be yours.
I think he will have enough confidence of the coaching staff that if Manuel looks like 2nd half Manuel, they won't hesitate to turn to him. In a system like this one, execution is more important than raw talent, and Lewis also has a natural feel for running and the deep ball. Really Manuel is the risk to Manuel, and Lewis' modest success + progress in a full offseason will keep the pressure on Manuel to stay sharp. I think it's actually a good situation to push both players to be motivated
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MAC_32
Footballguy
I saw a lot of the same things I saw in college, which is why I thought he was a terrible 1st round pick. He's a project. He's not being treated as such. Coaching staff not really giving him much of a chance and now they are desperately throwing all of their eggs into the 2014 basket because with the pending ownership change their jobs may be someone else's come January if they don't get 8 wins or more.
2nd half Manuel looked like the Manuel (esp vs PIT) that lacked feel for the game and seemed like a reach as a 1st rd pick. 1st half Manuel was a much better passer and in general looked more comfortable in the offense. I think staying injury-free is key. A full offseason of prep and the addition of a QB coach (Hackett was doing double duty as OC/QB coach last year) could help. It's definitely the biggest question. That being said, if he bombs, Lewis will surprise.
Yup, I'm buying in (and picking up Manuel cheaply where I can). And I do think they'll be able to run a high # of plays, like last year, and will still rely on the run game. Bryce was a good addition for that.
The Bills did have a plan last year to bring EJ along slowly behind Kolb but that didn't pan out due to his concussions. I think people are swinging too far to the negative end with EJ now.
I'm definitely interested in seeing if he can take the step forward that's needed.
The Bills did have a plan last year to bring EJ along slowly behind Kolb but that didn't pan out due to his concussions. I think people are swinging too far to the negative end with EJ now.
I'm definitely interested in seeing if he can take the step forward that's needed.
I disagree that there was a clear difference between 1st and 2nd halves (he was very up and down all season), but even if there was, isn't that the opposite of what you'd hope to see?
Last year was basically a mulligan- saw some good things, some bad, but he still has pretty much all of the question marks he had coming into the NFL.
The irony in this comparison is that the Bills could have had Foles (or Wilson) the year before with their 3rd rounder. Oof.
MAC_32
Footballguy
One could spin it to being a product of his early season injury and never kicking the rust off once coming back, but I agree with you that even during the first half of the season he was far from good. His reads were kept very simple, which is why he was better, but when asked to work outside of the box the college version of Manuel reared its ugly head. I think this is one of those cases in which his fantasy production will be better than his actual production, but not as much as his supporter's hope since despite having the ability to run he chooses not to.
Rb fjax is going to fall off any day now. Spiller is now 27 everybody...he's not going to be a stud. He's a guy that is injured often and is a better athlete than football player. Brown is a recent gamble.
Wr - Sammy Watkins is good not great. Tampa/buffalo mike is just a guy, nothing great. Woods is a role player imo. A few little speed guys, but nothing outstanding.
Te nothing
Ol- is it really much better?
Qb- it has been noted already
The problem with football now is everyone likes the speed guys, but fails to look at the whole football player. Which is why buffalo looks appealing with spiller/Watkins ( 4.43 isn't that fast). It's why people missed on Lamar Miller, seastrunk, etc. More to the game then that. Doug marrone isn't chip Kelly, far from it.
This year is too soon to expect these kids to develop. I would guess year 3 in a perfect world for Buffalo
Khy
Footballguy
That's actually not a completely unreasonable thing to state. The offense was leaps and bounds more productive under Foles. Under Vick the team went 2-4 and under Foles they went 8-2.
Vick played week 1-5 and week 8. In those weeks the team averaged 414ypg and 23.6ppg... it's also worth noting these numbers are slightly skewed. Because in Week 5 Foles came in at the half and bumped those numbers up. The Week 5 numbers were 439 yards and 36 points. But the numbers under Vick were 16 points and 228 yards. Which brings Vick's numbers to 379 ypg and 20.3ppg.
In the rest of the games where Foles played (and being fair and not including Vick's production in Week 5) we get an average of 441.3ypg and 32ppg.
So to make that more readable:
Under Vick the team averaged: 379ypg and 20.3ppg with a record of 2-4
Under Foles the team averaged: 441.3ypg and 32ppg with a record of 8-2
A difference of 62.3ypg and 11.7ppg on the season. And that's not even comparing the massive differences in their stats.
Foles: 64% comp. 8.5 TD %, 0.6 INT %, 9.1 YPA and a 119.2 QBR
Vick: 54.6% comp, 3.5 TD %, 2.1 INT %, 8.6 YPA and a 86.5 QBR
The numbers to me say that the offensive scheme wasn't working that great under Vick. If you really look at the numbers deeper it seems like it started out really good against Washington and San Diego then teams started to catch on until Foles came in and was able to execute Kelly's scheme better than Vick. If Kelly wasn't a moron and starts Foles from Week 1 the team probably goes 11-5 or maybe even 12-4 last season. I'm kind of assuming they'd beat the Chargers in week 2 then win at least one of the games with the Chiefs, Cowboys or Giants that they lost. The assumption there is the Cowboys and Giants game were during the point where they were flip flopping between the QB1 on the team. If Foles was just getting the QB1 reps from the start I'm willing to bet he's a little more comfortable midseason than he was and comes away with at least one of those games.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
If you're just going to write off Jackson and Spiller then there's little reason to even continue this. Buffalo has had one of the best running games in the NFL for a while and there are plenty of reasons to expect more, not less, from them this year.
I'm guessing you've seen certain numbers in a vacuum but probably watched very little of the Bills.
Oh, and yeah, Buffalo's O-line absolutely should be better. They started by far the worst LGs in football all year and a RT that was awful much of the year as well. They have a number of other options at both positions this year and it seems very likely that both of those positions should be better.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
That's a lot harder than admitting you were wrong about Nick Foles. Let's not even mention "how does Matt Barkley fit in Philadelphia" http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=681429&page=2#entry16474990
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I thought this discussion was about buffalo turning into a Juggernaut offense. Little things here and there don't get it done for me.
Khy
Footballguy
Hmm? Not sure what you mean here... I was actually pointing out that I agree with you. That Foles is what made Kelly's system work last season. Also, even as a Giants fan I thought Foles should have been the clear starter last season. If you look around hard enough you'll find plenty of posts from me stating this prior to the start of the season. I was honestly floored when Foles lost the job to Vick prior to the season starting.
Now back on topic... I'm not sure how heavily I'm buying into the Bills offense. Bloom what was it you say on the Audible about Eric Ebron? The talent is greater than the sum or something to that effect?
I love the talent on the offensive side... I'm a fan of Woods and obviously Watkins. I'm a fan of CJ Spiller, Bryce Brown and even the village grandfather Fred Jackson. That said I just don't see it all coming together. Not unless Spiller returns to 2012 form and stays healthy and Manuel makes leaps of progression from last season. He was servicable, sure. But I don't know that he can really take advantage of the talent around him. That said, I liked Woods raport w/ Manuel last season. I think if Manuel is the sure fire starter at the start of the year that bumps Woods value up a lot. Sure, only 40 receptions for Woods in 14 games but he played 8 of his 14 games w/ Manuel which accounted almost all of his production.
With Manuel: 8 games, 27 rec, 437 yards, 3 TDs :: 3.37rpg, 54.6ypg, 0.37TDs/game
W/O Manuel: 6 games, 13 rec, 150 yards, 0 TDs :: 2.16rpg, 25ypg, 0TDs/game
So Woods production was literally cut in half (or some could argue worse) when Manuel went out. I think it'd be safe to assume that had Manuel not gone down last year Woods production would've looked something like this: 50 receptions, 825 yards, 5 TDs. Would would make him much more appetizing of a prospect coming into this season.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since "breakout offense" is not really defined, it's hard to really have an informed opinion.
The Bills certainly can't rank higher in rushing attempts, but that many attempts will likely serve to keep total offense production repressed (it's a passing league now). BUF ranked 22nd in points scored and 19th in YFS despite running the 3rd most offensive plays. I would much prefer to see more production in fewer plays than less production in more plays run.
If the Bills are to make a monumental jump in productivity (and fantasy scoring), it will have to come through the passing game. As a rookie, I don't see Watkins doing much better than Steve Johnson usual did (1000/6). So others will have to produce a lot more than I see them producing to have a profound impact on the offense.
The schedule may also play a role. The Bills play 10 teams that ranked in the Top 12 in either points allowed or yardage allowed in 2013 (admittedly things could change a lot in 2014). They do have some games against some weaker defenses (CHI, MIN, GB, and OAK come to mind), but taken on a whole I don't think their schedule will boost their production any.
So put me in the category of people that think the Bills could perform a little better overall, but I don't see them turning into a fantasy gold mine this year.
The Bills certainly can't rank higher in rushing attempts, but that many attempts will likely serve to keep total offense production repressed (it's a passing league now). BUF ranked 22nd in points scored and 19th in YFS despite running the 3rd most offensive plays. I would much prefer to see more production in fewer plays than less production in more plays run.
If the Bills are to make a monumental jump in productivity (and fantasy scoring), it will have to come through the passing game. As a rookie, I don't see Watkins doing much better than Steve Johnson usual did (1000/6). So others will have to produce a lot more than I see them producing to have a profound impact on the offense.
The schedule may also play a role. The Bills play 10 teams that ranked in the Top 12 in either points allowed or yardage allowed in 2013 (admittedly things could change a lot in 2014). They do have some games against some weaker defenses (CHI, MIN, GB, and OAK come to mind), but taken on a whole I don't think their schedule will boost their production any.
So put me in the category of people that think the Bills could perform a little better overall, but I don't see them turning into a fantasy gold mine this year.
James Brimacombe
Moderator
Great write-up Sigmund.
Some additional thoughts I had were on the Eagles had a one of a kind offensive line last year that played together all season and played very fast. I also thought last years success was an overall buy in from the entire team and the one position that really never got much credit was the TE position. Ertz and Celek made some big plays through out the season and they combined for 68 catches and 971 yards and 10 touchdowns. I am not sure if the Bills have anything at TE to come close to matching those numbers. Also it is easy to think that Foles just played in a system and that is why he put up such respectable numbers, but what about Vick in those first few games? He only completed 78 of 142 passes with a 5-3 TD/INT ratio. Foles just looked calm and cool and relied on his offensive line and took what was given to him. The best quality about Foles is his ability to play the same throughout the entire game no matter if it is the opening drive or the last drive of the game with his team trailing. I hate to say this out loud and know it is probably too early in his career, but he seems to have a little Tom Brady in his game.
I am not sure that Manuel has the OLine and the calm collectiveness that Foles has shown to get the Bills to that next level. I do think the Bills offense is going to be much faster this season and that they are going to have more opportunities to create big plays. I see them getting more to that Bengals level of success from last year and for that to happen I think it all falls on the running game and not the QB position. CJ Spiller could be a steal in the third round this year and it is a really nice time to buy low on him in Dynasty leagues as well.
Some additional thoughts I had were on the Eagles had a one of a kind offensive line last year that played together all season and played very fast. I also thought last years success was an overall buy in from the entire team and the one position that really never got much credit was the TE position. Ertz and Celek made some big plays through out the season and they combined for 68 catches and 971 yards and 10 touchdowns. I am not sure if the Bills have anything at TE to come close to matching those numbers. Also it is easy to think that Foles just played in a system and that is why he put up such respectable numbers, but what about Vick in those first few games? He only completed 78 of 142 passes with a 5-3 TD/INT ratio. Foles just looked calm and cool and relied on his offensive line and took what was given to him. The best quality about Foles is his ability to play the same throughout the entire game no matter if it is the opening drive or the last drive of the game with his team trailing. I hate to say this out loud and know it is probably too early in his career, but he seems to have a little Tom Brady in his game.
I am not sure that Manuel has the OLine and the calm collectiveness that Foles has shown to get the Bills to that next level. I do think the Bills offense is going to be much faster this season and that they are going to have more opportunities to create big plays. I see them getting more to that Bengals level of success from last year and for that to happen I think it all falls on the running game and not the QB position. CJ Spiller could be a steal in the third round this year and it is a really nice time to buy low on him in Dynasty leagues as well.
Lovie is still the HC and you are talking about Josh McCown, a 34 year old QB who has never started an entire NFL season. Martin is overrated. Nothing to get excited about there. They'll be lucky to hit mediocrity, much less be a break out offense.bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Warpig
Footballguy
The glaring weak spot to me is Manuel. I'm a FSU fan and I've never been sold on Manuel. He had top level talent at FSU and was a mediocre QB at best. Inconsistent and incapable of making a play on his own. He's NOT a scrambler like people liked to say about him coming out of college. Kinda reminds me of another Byron Leftwich.
They have tons of weapons in spite of Manuel though. Other teams have proven a stud QB is not necessary to be successful. I just wouldn't expect big WR/TE numbers.
They have tons of weapons in spite of Manuel though. Other teams have proven a stud QB is not necessary to be successful. I just wouldn't expect big WR/TE numbers.
spider321
Footballguy
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
I think GroveDeez has been pretty on point. Buffalo has guys that can make plays. For EJ, he needs coaching and game plans that exploit his strengths and mask his weaknesses. The coaching staff hasn't shown that they're up to that challenge yet.
I'm going to be following what happens with Downing closely for that reason. Hackett was doing double duty as OC/QB coach. Downing and Manuel hit it off at the Sr Bowl last year, stayed in touch, and appear to be way ahead when it comes to trust/confidence in each other.
He certainly needs quality coaching, but I don't think there is much they can do to mask his weaknesses. He really just needs to improve on them.
