socrates
Footballguy
This is way early. Pro Day workouts and the NFL Draft will drastically change my draft board, but I figured I would share this as a work in progress. Links to Shark Pool player profiles are provided (compliments of @Faust) where they were available, otherwise, I linked to some highlight tape, so you can familiarize yourself with the player, if you wish.
I left off my player analysis for now, as well as my "range of comparisons". I will add those later, but it seemed a bit premature yet. (Update 3/04/2021 to add First Round analysis)
Most of my rankings are penciled in, with the idea that they are very preliminary. Tiers will be narrowed following pro day workouts. Your feedback is welcome!
1.01 Najee Harris RB1 (Tier 1) 6-2 229 Alabama
Najee Harris has a rare blend of size, speed and vision. Harris doesn’t have Etienne’s breakaway speed, and he runs a bit upright, but he is a tremendous athlete in a 6-2, 229 pound frame. He is an explosive, punishing runner with excellent footwork and contact balance. Harris has developed into a very reliable receiver, so he projects as a rare every-down back in the NFL. Harris needs to refine his pass-blocking skills (doesn’t every rookie runner?), but he certainly has the size and strength to be a dominant blocker.
Range of Comparisons: Steven Jackson/Matt Forte/Arian Foster/Demarco Murray
1.02 JaMarr Chase WR1 (Tier 1) 6-0 207 LSU
Chase is easily the top wideout in this class for me. Chase lacks the height of his former teammate, Justin Jefferson, but he checks every other box. He has great burst off the line of scrimmage and game-breaking speed once he gets in the open field. He plucks the ball from the air effortlessly. His hands are elite and sudden. He bullies smaller defenders. He understands how to break down a defender to get open, tracks the ball well, and once he gets the ball in his hands, he has excellent RAC skills. I know RBs typically dominate the early picks of a fantasy draft, but JaMarr Chase is one of those WR talents who deserves to be in consideration for the top spot in your dynasty drafts.
Range of Comparisons: Justin Blackmon/Odell Beckham, Jr./Chris Godwin, with Amari Cooper/Davante Adams/ DeAndre Hopkins upside
1.03 Travis Etienne RB2 (Tier 1) 5-10 205 Clemson
Etienne will be 1.01 on many dynasty draft boards. He is the most explosive and dynamic RB in his class. Etienne is a threat to score any time he touches the ball. A criticism you hear often is that Etienne cannot run effectively between the tackles, but he has made improvement in this part of his game. He sometimes reverts back to relying upon his speed to beat defenders to the corner, but Etienne has also shown he has the vision and patience to press the line of scrimmage and allow a crease to open. Etienne needs to work on his pass protection, and while he is generally effective as an outlet receiver, his hands and route running are merely adequate at this point. If he can develop the receiving element of his game, Travis Etienne could emerge as the top back from this class.
Range of Comparisons: David Wilson/CJ Spiller/Reggie Bush, with Alvin Kamara/Aaron Jones/Jamaal Charles upside
1.04 Javonte Williams RB3 (Tier 1) 5-10 220 North Carolina
Excellent balance and body control. Williams easily sheds arm tackles, and his contact balance is the best in his class. He has nimble feet for a big back. Javonta Williams also has natural hands. I see shades of LaDanian Tomlinson with the way he runs, although he lacks the speed to be in LT’s class. Williams is one of the younger prospects in this class and has low mileage. However, Javonte Williams is not without his flaws. In addition to lacking break-away speed, Williams’ absorbs a lot of punishment. Williams has to be in consideration for the top spot in this draft, and is an almost certain lock to be top 4. Javonte Williams has arguably the highest ceiling in this RB class, and his floor is similarly high.
Range of Comparisons: Josh Jacobs/Mark Ingram, with Nick Chubb/Chris Carson upside
1.05 Kyle Pitts TE1 (Tier 1) 6-6 240 Florida
NFL offenses thrive on creating mismatches, and Kyle Pitts is the ultimate mismatch nightmare for defenses. I have seen many tremendously talented TE prospects fall short, so there is a risk anytime you take a TE with an early pick; it is an extremely difficult position to project. The floor for TE prospects is always low. I have seen my share of sure-fire TE prospects never live up to the hype. Johnny Mitchell was going to take the league by storm. Kyle Brady was going to be the face of the Jets’ franchise (in a sense, he was). Bubba Franks was going to be the next Kellen Winslow (Sr). Rickey Dudley was an athletic freak. Kellen Winslow, Jr. was a can’t-miss prospect. OJ Howard was touted as the most complete TE prospect in a decade. All first-round busts. Eric Ebron (2014, 1.10) was drawing comparisons to Vernon Davis, and while he has not been a total bust, he certainly has not lived up to his draft status. Meanwhile, Tight Ends like Ben Coates (5th Round), Shannon Sharpe (7th Round), Antonio Gates (3rd Round), Travis Kelce (3rd Round), Darren Waller (6th Round), Mark Andrews (3rd Round) and George Kittle (5th Round) were not the top Tight End prospects in their draft classes. Even Rob Gronkowski (2nd Round) was drafted a round behind Jermaine Gresham. Pitts may indeed be the next Tony Gonzalez, but Tight End has proven to be an incredibly difficult position to scout. I would jump at a chance to grab Pitts with a mid first, but I am generally reluctant to take a rookie TE in the first half of Round One of my fantasy drafts. Then again, Kyle Pitts, is one of the premiere talents in this draft, regardless of position; he is a dynamic playmaker who could join the ranks as one of the elite pass-catching Tight Ends in the NFL. Kyle Pitts would be one of the top wideouts in this class, and while that does not guarantee success at the TE position (see Exhibit A, Bucky Hodges) (see also Exhibit B, David Njoku), it sure helps in this pass-first age of NFL offenses. Temper your early expectations, but the long-term ceiling for Pitts is incredibly high. Draft Destination is going to be key here. If Pitts is drafted with the idea of deploying him as a plus-sized receiver, and not as a traditional in-line TE, he is a top 5 rookie dynasty pick. (Pro Day update: Pitts showed off a spectacular 83 3/8 inch wingspan, a 10-9 broad jump and a 4.44-40.)
Range of Comparisons: Jimmy Graham/Darren Waller/Vernon Davis, with Calvin Johnson upside
1.06 Trevor Lawrence QB1 (Tier 1) 6-6 220 Clemson
I am sure to catch some pushback for putting a QB this high on my list in a start-1-QB league, but Trevor Lawrence is quite simply the best player in this draft. He is being discussed in the same breath as John Elway, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. You want him on your NFL team, and you want him on your fantasy roster; he is a set-it-and-forget-it type of prospect. Barring some catastrophic injury, you are likely to be reaping dividends for 10+ years from this draft pick. He is as safe a pick as you can make; both his floor and his ceiling are incredibly high. Keep it simple. Don’t try to get cute. Draft the most talented player, and his name is Trevor Lawrence. People will undervalue QBs in rookie dynasty drafts, citing impressive-sounding concepts like “positional scarcity”, but do not get fooled. This is dynasty we are talking about here, not redraft. A QB the likes of Trevor Lawrence is scarce indeed, and he will lock the position up for your dynasty team for many seasons to come, allowing you to focus instead on other positions. This is not your run-of-the-mill, dime-a-dozen QB prospect. Dynasty RBs have a dreadfully short shelf life. The miss rate on dynasty receivers is incredibly high, and even higher for TE prospects. Your league mates may roll their eyes and utter “amateur”, but you are not trying to impress them on draft day, you are building a winning dynasty franchise.
Range of Comparisons: Andrew Luck/Josh Allen
1.07 Jaylen Waddle WR2 (Tier 2) 5-10 183 Alabama
He doesn’t glide through defenses quite like Henry Ruggs did at Alabama, but he is every bit as fast. Defenses have to play off of him due to his extra gear, and he knows how to make teams pay if they give him even the hint of a crease. Waddle is electrifying; he is the most explosive wide receiver in his class. Waddle also has the footwork and body control to create space in the blink of an eye. If you are looking for the next Tyreek Hill, Waddle fits the mold and is the best candidate I have seen since, well, Tyreek Hill. Waddle did miss time this season with a bum ankle, and durability is an obvious concern for any undersized receiver, but Waddle is fearless and tough as nails. He gritted it out in the Championship game, showing toughness and desire. He could prove to be a better pro than his college teammate DaVonta Smith. Waddle has the ability to flip a game script at any moment. In this monkey-see-monkey-do world of the NFL, there is a premium on elite playmakers who can create mismatches, and Waddle is precisely that; he has route versatility. Defenses will be forced to account for Waddle at all times. He can win at every level.
Range of Comparisons: Keke Coutee, with Steve Smith/Tyreek Hill upside
1.08 DeVonta Smith WR3 (Tier 2) 6-1 174 Alabama
DaVonta Smith is rail thin: he is still a couple of dozen Quarter Pounders away from a buck-eighty! When Devonta Smith refused to be weighed and measured at the Senior Bowl weigh-in, he was telling NFL teams to measure his potential with his body of work at Alabama, which culminated in a National Championship and a Heisman Trophy, rather than with a scale and a measuring tape. He checks nearly all of the boxes you want from an elite receiver, but with his slight build, he may struggle to dominate in the NFL like he has at Alabama. College success and a Heisman Trophy do not guarantee success in the NFL. Ask Desmond Howard. Still, Smith has elite skills. He accelerates smoothly into his routes, his route running is top notch, and his hands and body control are arguably the best in his class. DeVonta Smith would have been an elite pick even in last season’s historic WR class. If he runs a sub-4.40 forty, Smith will vault up most draft boards. For all of the accolades, however, there is reason to remain cautious about Smith’s prospects as a pro. He has been compared to Anthony Carter and Marvin Harrison, and he certainly looks the part, but each of those receivers ran a 4.35 forty. Calvin Ridley ran a 4.45 forty. If Smith turns in a comparable time, he could share the success that Ridley has enjoyed. If Smith checks in much slower, I am likely to move him down for fear he goes the way of Peter Warrick. (Pro Day update: Smith elected not to workout, but even worse, he is not getting anywhere near a scale. He claims he weighs 170; I suspect it is somewhere in the 160s, or he would weigh in. He appears to me, on tape, as a 4.45-4.48 athlete, which is plenty fast, although not elite. It is getting increasingly more difficult to ignore the warning bells.)
Range of Comparisons: Paul Richardson/Calvin Ridley, with Stefon Diggs/Anthony Carter/Marvin Harrison extreme upside
1.09 Rashod Bateman WR4 (Tier 2) 6-2 209 Minnesota
Bateman is not a twitchy receiver; nor does he have especially loose hips or the ability to generate space with shiftiness. However, Bateman does create space with an excellent release off the line of scrimmage, he is an advanced route runner, and he possesses the physicality to beat press coverage. I have seen no evidence of Bateman being a "body catcher". Rather, I have seen him pluck the ball with excellent hand strength, which allows him to beat defenders in tight coverage.
Range of Comparisons: Alshon Jeffery/Brandon Marshall with Allen Robinson/Keenan Allen upside
1.10 Rondale Moore WR5 (Tier 3) 5-7 181 Purdue
The difference in skillsets between Moore and Waddle is minimal, but Moore checks in a couple of inches shorter. Moore also has a tendency to body catch at times, and although he has an impressive vertical, at 5-7, Moore is not going to make his living going up over defenders for contested passes. But put the ball in Moore’s hands, and watch him go to work: instant offense! He is like a RB once he has the ball, and he generates surprising power for a small guy. (Watch Moore squat 600 pounds!) Moore is not as fast or “twitchy” as Tyreek Hill, but he will break ankles and distance himself from defenders in a heartbeat. The biggest knock on Moore has been his durability. He has appeared in just 7 games over the past two seasons. He has the mentality of a much bigger player, but his 181-pound frame can only endure so much abuse. Moore initially opted out of the 2020 season, then opted back in before an “unspecified lower body injury” sidelined him once again. There were some who believed Moore was unwilling to play without an insurance policy in place, again causing some concern. Contrast that with Jaylen Waddle who took the field in the National Championship game despite injury. As exciting a prospect as Rondale Moore is, it is going to be difficult to justify spending your first-round pick on a player who spends more time in the trainer's room than on the field. (Pro Day Update: Moore blew his Pro Day workout away. Although he checked in shorter than expected, at a Bilbo-Baggins-like 5-7, he impressed with a 4.29-forty, a ridiculous 42.5-inch vertical and a 3-cone time of 6.65! Those are freakish numbers! Can you say "Baby Cheetah"? Emphasis on the "baby" part of that.)
Range of Comparisons: Jakeem Grant/Tavon Austin/Dante Hall, with Steve Smith/Tyreek Hill upside
1.11 Kenneth Gainwell RB4 (Tier 2) 5-11 201 Memphis
Gainwell is one of my favorite players in this draft. He does so many of the small things instinctually. At 194 pounds, Gainwell is a bit undersized, but he has the frame to add some bulk. If you are drafting in the back end of Round One of your dynasty draft, chances are you already have a strong team, and here is an opportunity to add another potential gem to your roster. People forget that Antonio Gibson spent a lot of time split out wide as a receiver due to the talented Gainwell’s presence in the backfield. Gainwell has often been compared to the NFL’s most elite, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara, and those are fair comparisons. Gainwell has excellent vision, and his first-step burst is among the best. Despite his lean frame, Gainwell shows exceptional body control and contact balance to fight through defenders. Gainwell also has very natural hands, and once he gets the ball in space, look out! He will need to develop his pass protection, but the sky is the limit for this incredibly talented playmaker. Look for Gainwell to move up draft boards as the draft season progresses. (Pro Day update: Gainwell checked in at 201 pounds, and he ran a 4.42-40.)
Range of Comparisons: Trung Candidate/Matt Breida/Tony Pollard/Raheem Mostert, with Aaron Jones/Christian McCaffrey/Reggie Bush/Alvin Kamara upside
1.12 Terrace Marshall WR6 (Tier 3) 6-3 201 LSU
The former five-star recruit emerged this season from the ominous shadows of Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase. Marshall has the height and catch radius to be a solid redzone threat for an NFL team. He has long speed, although he is a bit of a straight-line, long strider. Like former teammate Justin Jefferson, Terrace Marshall offers versatility. He can win on the outside as well as out of the slot. Marshall's ceiling is extremely high. (Pro Day update: Marshall impressed with a 4.38-40 time and 39-inch vertical.)
Range of Comparisons: Rueben Randle/Mohamed Sanu, with Justin Jefferson upside
2.01 Michael Carter RB5 (Tier 2) 5-8 201 North Carolina
Carter shows good vision and patience running between the tackles. I see shades of D’Andre Swift in his game, although Carter lacks the size and power to shed tacklers. Like Swift, Carter patiently presses the line, then has the vision and acceleration to hit the gaps, and enough wiggle to gain extra yardage. Carter may not be suited to be a bellcow-type back, but he could certainly find a role with the right team as a complementary receiving back who brings the lightning to a bigger back’s thunder. (Pro Day update: Carter's 40 time was not especially exciting (4.50), but it is sufficient. However, Carter’s 3.98-second short shuttle time would have been the second-best time among all players at last year’s combine, and his 6.87-second three-cone time would have been tied for fourth-best.)
Range of Comparisons: Nyhein Hines/Giovani Bernard/Dion Lewis/Duke Johnson, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Austin Ekeler upside
2.02 Elijah Moore WR7 (Tier 3) 5-9 185 Mississippi
Elijah Moore is about the size of Steve Smith, and when you watch Moore’s highlights, you cannot help but see the similarities. Elijah Moore is scrappy like Steve Smith and, like Smith, has excellent quickness and athleticism. Moore posted a blistering 4.32-40 at his Pro Day workout, along with a 4.00 short shuttle and a 6.65-second 3 cone drill. Moore's stock is rising quickly. Moore uses his elite speed and athleticism to get open, and he is a terror once he gets the ball. In an 8-game, COVID-shortened 2020 season at Ole Miss, Moore put up ridiculous numbers: 86 receptions, 1,193 yards and 8 TDs. Moore is smaller than desired, but he checks every other box. This kid is a dynamic receiver with explosive playmaking ability. Put him with the right team, and Moore is a sure first-round dynasty pick.
Range of Comparisons: Cole Beasley, with Johnnie Morton/Steve Smith upside
2.03 Justin Fields QB2 (Tier 2) 6-3 228 Ohio State
Justin Fields has a big-time arm, and he can make all of the throws at the next level. He isn’t the most instinctive QB in this class at reading a defensive alignment and going though his progressions, but I would not consider it a fatal flaw, either, but more of a byproduct of the Ohio State offense. Fields has a sturdy build, in the mold of Dak Prescott or Cam Newton, and he is as much of a threat to throw the ball on the move as he is to tuck the ball and run. It is his running ability, however, which pushes Fields this high as a fantasy signal caller. Zach Wilson may be taken ahead of Fields in the NFL Draft, but Fields arguably offers the higher fantasy value. (Pro Day update: Fields ran a 4.45 second 40-yard dash, which was really fast for the position. He later dazzled with some high difficulty throws on the field.)
Range of Comparisons: Byron Leftwich, with Cam Newton/Deshaun Watson/Dak Prescott upside
2.04 Jermar Jefferson
RB6 (Tier 2) 5-10 210 Oregon State
I have read some criticism of Jefferson’s vision, but I believe that one of Jermar Jefferson’s best strengths; he combines good patience working off of his blocks with instinctive running. He can explode through a crease quickly and runs with surprising power, good contact balance, excellent lateral agility and quickness, and adequate speed. Jefferson does have a tendency to rely a bit too much upon his speed, and while that may have proven effective against PAC-12 opponents, it may not bring great success in the NFL. Jermar Jefferson can be an effective check-down receiver; he has reliable hands, and once he is in space, he has the run skills and creativity to generate yards in chunks. Jefferson is a multi-faceted back, and at 5-10, 210-215, he has the size and frame to develop into a three-down back. You are drafting Jefferson for his tremendous upside potential. His destination, however, will play a huge role in determining his fantasy draft slot.
Range of Comparisons: Mike Weber/Ronald Jones, with Aaron Jones upside
2.05 Zach Wilson QB3 (Tier 2) 6-3 209 BYU
Wilson is a bit of a late bloomer, and there is some understandable concern he will prove to be a one-year wonder, but his arm is for real. Zach Wilson version-2020 routinely made some of the best throws I have seen from any QB in this class, and I am not talking strictly off-platform throws. He makes quick reads and throws from various angles and on the run extremely well, and his quick release is reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers. Wilson can extend plays with his legs, and he is able to tuck the ball and make positive yards when he needs to. This top-4 QB group is mostly interchangeable after Lawrence. With a number of the old guard QBs reaching the end, a new class of young signal callers is emerging, and if your fantasy regime is seeking a dose of youth at the position, this is a good year to make that investment. Grab Wilson with confidence. If there is a reason for concern, it is green and rhymes with "regrets". The Jets have been a QB wasteland. This is a new coaching regime, so hopefully the curse is lifted.
Range of Comparisons: Blaine Gabbert/Baker Mayfield/Tony Romo, with Aaron Rodgers upside
2.06 Trey Sermon
RB7 (Tier 2) 6-0 221 Ohio State
Sermon is not going to wow you with his athleticism; he is merely an adequate athlete in most regards. However, he has good size for the position, and the traits he possesses lend themselves well to success in the NFL. Sermon attacks the line of scrimmage, and he has the vision, short-area burst and agility to exploit holes in the defense. Sermon sheds tackles as well as any back in this class not named Javonte Williams, churns out yards on contact and routinely falls forward. His contact balance rivals his vision as his best trait. Sermon will also endear himself to an NFL coach with his ball security: In 423 college carries, Sermon did not fumble the football once! Sermon does not have breakaway speed, and his usage in the passing game has been limited, but Sermon could find a sizeable early-down role with the right team, and he has shown glimpses of some ability in the passing game, as well. (Pro Day update: Sermon measured 6-foot 3/8 inches and 215 pounds with 9 3/8 inch hands, 33 3/8 inch arms and a 77 1/8 inch wingspan. He clocked a 4.57 second 40-yard dash and posted a 37 inch vertical jump, 10-feet, 5-inch broad jump, 4.28 second short shuttle, and a 6.83 second 3-cone drill. Sermon was moving quickly through his 3-cone drill.) When I heard Matt Waldman has Sermon as his top RB in this class, it made my ears perk up. Sermon tested well at his Pro Day. Sermon was pretty mediocre with Ohio State until the end of the year. He put up 112 yards on only 10 rushing attempts against Michigan State, then he destroyed Northwestern in the Big 10 Championship game, rushing for 331 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He followed that up with an impressive 193 yards rushing to beat Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. Sadly, a shoulder injury knocked Sermon out of the National Championship game on the opening drive. Depending on what occurs in the NFL Relocation Program (a/k/a NFL Draft), Sermon could vault his way up dynasty draft boards considerably. (Imagine Sermon as a Steeler!)
Range of Comparisons: TJ Yeldon/Jordan Howard/Carlos Hyde, with Josh Jacobs upside
2.07 Pat Freiermuth TE2 (Tier 2) 6-5 260 Penn State
Freiermuth is the most complete TE to come out of college since T.J. Hockenson. He does not bring the elite athleticism of Kyle Pitts, but he is perhaps more well-rounded. It is always difficult to project rookie TE prospects, but Freiermuth is arguably a TE1 immediately upon being drafted. He is athletic, runs advanced routes, tracks the ball well, and he is a natural-hands catcher with the size, physicality, catch radius and quickness to be a red zone nightmare for defenses. He is too big and physical for safeties and too quick for linebackers. Freiermuth lacks the breakaway speed to routinely beat defenders deep, but he understands how to get open on short and intermediate routes. His run blocking is still a bit inconsistent, although he shows excellent leverage and technique. Freiermuth will quickly endear himself to his QB with his reliable hands and physicality; in three seasons at Penn State, Freiermuth did not drop a single red zone target! Freiermuth's 2020 season ended with a shoulder injury, and he is working his way back from surgery to repair a torn anterior and posterior labrum, but he should be back to full speed in time for training camp. Nicknamed "Baby Gronk", athletically, Freiermuth compares favorably to Gronk, although he does not come into the NFL with Gronk-like blocking dominance.
Range of Comparisons: Hunter Henry/TJ Hockenson, with Rob Gronkowski upside
2.08 Trey Lance QB4 (Tier 2) 6-4 224 NDSU
Trey Lance may be the most physically gifted QB in this class, but he is still extremely raw, and when you combine limited playing time with a lack of top-shelf competition, it makes Lance a very difficult evaluation. Trey Lance has a howitzer for an arm, and he shows a nice touch on his deep passes, but sometimes he struggles with reads and accuracy. An alarmingly low 44% of Lance’s career passes beyond the line of scrimmage were deemed accurate, according to PFF. "Comparing that to all the first-round quarterbacks since 2017, it would be the worst by a considerable margin." He is a punishing runner, reminiscent of Cam Newton, but he too often defaults to his running ability. You are probably not drafting Lance to be your 2021 fantasy QB, but his long-term ceiling is ridiculously high. (Pro Day Update: Lance confirmed what we already knew, for the most part; he has an elite arm, but he is raw and struggles some with accuracy issues. Daniel Jeremiah compared him to Josh Allen, noting, "He was able to stretch the field with that power arm. Some touch throws down the field got away from him, particularly to the right side, but . . . he is dripping with ability.")
Range of Comparisons: Colin Kaepernick/Steve McNair, with Josh Allen/Cam Newton upside
2.09 Chuba HubbardRB8 (Tier 3) 6-0 208 Oklahoma State
Much has been made of Hubbard’s 2020 regression, but he did play through a nagging ankle injury, which may have contributed to his declining numbers. Hubbard has excellent straight-line speed, but his game is not limited to speed. He shows good interior patience and vision at the line of scrimmage and the ability to plant his foot and burst through a hole when it presents itself. Hubbard generally runs with good pad level, although he lacks the power in his legs to drive through defenders. His contact balance is merely adequate, and he will need to improve in the receiving game to maximize his value in the NFL, but the 2019 version of Chuba Hubbard put up a ridiculous stat line; that Chuba Hubbard can play on Sundays. Hubbard may need to carve out a rotational role as he develops some areas of his game, but he has the raw tools to become a team's primary back. (Pro Day update: Hubbard ran a 4.48-40, 4.26-short shuttle and 7.24 second 3-cone drill while posting a 36 inch vertical jump, 10-feet broad jump, and 20 repetitions on the bench press.)
Range of Comparisons: Raheem Mostert/Tevin Coleman/Jerious Norwood, with Darren McFadden/Robert Smith upside
2.10 Kadarius Toney WR8 (Tier 4) 5-11 194 Florida
Toney isn’t an especially big guy, but this kid is tough as nails and extremely quick and agile. There are times when he appears to simply be uncoverable. Toney knows how to get open, and he plays with maximum effort – he has a high-energy motor, and he shows that same effort as a blocker. Toney is fearless over the middle and on jet sweeps. He is a jitterbug in traffic and fights for every yard. Kadarius Toney is the classic “offensive weapon”. It is a concern that he did not breakout until his age 22 season, but the breakout is real. His value will depend on who drafts him; Toney could either be an exciting returner and offensive gadget player or a potential offensive game-breaker. One of the key traits I look for in a WR prospect is an ability to create separation from defenders, and Toney possesses this quality in spades. I do worry, however, about how his game translates to the NFL. Toney isn't an especially smooth athlete. He moves like his pants are on fire, with all of his limbs sometimes flailing. (Pro Day Update: Toney ran a blazing 4.39-40 at his Pro Day workout, along with a 39.5-inch vertical jump, 11-4-in broad jump, 4.25-second short shuttle, and 6.88-second 3-cone drill.)
Range of Comparisons: Ryan Switzer, with Percy Harvin/Diontae Johnson/TY Hilton upside
2.11 Tylan Wallace WR9 (Tier 4) 6-0 190 Oklahoma State
Wallace needs to show more of a route tree, although the routes Wallace does run are effective. A former track star, Wallace is not a Tyreek Hill-like burner, but he has very good speed. Wallace shows good vision and strength once he gets the ball in his hands, but he needs work to develop as a blocker. His ball tracking skills and timing on jump balls are perhaps his best strengths. He generally shows good hand strength snaring the ball, and he quickly turns upfield once he has secured it. Wallace exploded onto the scene in 2018 with a dynamic sophomore season, before a 2019 knee injury set him back. (Tylan Wallace clocked in at 4.39 in the 40 at EXOS pro day.)
Range of Comparisons: Kenny Stills/Nelson Agholor/Christian Kirk
2.12 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR10 (Tier 4) 6-1 195 USC
Younger brother of Packer wideout Eqaunameous St. Brown, Amon-Ra projects as a better NFL wideout than his bigger brother. St. Brown doesn’t have the size or athleticism of many of the top receivers in this class, but he attacks the ball and wins at snaring contested passes. His route running is precise, although his route tree at USC was limited. He is quick in and out of his breaks, and he creates separation with feet and technique. St. Brown lacks top speed, but his short-area quickness and agility are excellent; he uses a variety of moves, head fakes, excellent route running, and physicality to gain an advantage at the line of scrimmage. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a technician with sticky hands, and there is a role on Sundays for a player with those qualities.
Range of Comparisons: Antwaan Randle-El/Willie Snead/Daesean Hamilton, with Jarvis Landry/Hines Ward/Keenan Allen upside
3.01 Dyami Brown WR11 (Tier 4) 6-0 185 North Carolina
Dyami Brown has the speed to take the top off a defense, and he puts defenders in an immediate deficit with his release off the line of scrimmage. He gets off the line as well as nearly any receiver in this class, but I worry he will struggle to beat press coverage in the NFL. Brown was limited to mostly vertical routes at North Carolina, and he shows inconsistent hands, but he is only 21 years old, and his ceiling is incredibly high. Brown will endear himself to an NFL team with his willingness and effectiveness blocking downfield. Brown doesn’t excel at winning contested balls downfield, and he will need some work to become effective out of the slot. I really like Dyami Brown’s competitiveness and toughness. Brown is still a bit raw as a prospect, and he may need to grow into his role in the NFL, but you are drafting Brown for his substantial upside. He may never be a true WR1 for an NFL team, but he could grow into a complementary role. (Pro Day update: Brown measured 6-foot 5/8 inches and 189 pounds with 9 5/8 inch hands, 32 3/4 inch arms and a 77 inch wingspan. He posted a 4.46 second 40-yard dash, 35 inch vertical jump, 10-feet, 8-inch broad jump, 4.35 second short shuttle, 6.87 second 3-cone drill and 18 repetitions on the bench press.)
Range of Comparisons: Mike Wallace/Sterling Shepard, with Calvin Ridley upside
3.02 Elijah MitchellRB9 (Tier 3) 5-11 217 Louisiana
3.03 Mac Jones QB5 (Tier 3) 6-3 214 Alabama
Excellent pocket awareness. Mac Jones is competitive, and he has excellent accuracy along with a high football IQ. Jones does not have an especially powerful arm, but he throws an accurate deep ball. Mac Jones can escape the pocket, but his athleticism is merely average, and he is not going to make plays downfield with his feet. Jones has an advanced understanding of the game, he processes his reads rapidly, instinctively looks off defenders and has the accuracy and confidence in his arm to put the ball in tight windows. This past season at Alabama, Jones didn't put up quite Joe Burrow 2019 passing numbers, but they were nearly as impressive (4,500 yards passing with 41 TDs and only 4 ints). McShay’s comparison to Brady and Marino is extremely lofty praise -- and undeserved. Mac Jones is a high-IQ pocket passer like those two NFL elites, but that is pretty much where the comparisons start and end. Brady and Marino are generational talents. Mac Jones may be drafted as high as the first half of Round One in the NFL Draft, so he should get a chance early to make his mark. In the right system, I believe Mac Jones could be an efficient starter, but I am not especially excited about Mac Jones in a start-1 QB fantasy league.
Range of Comparisons: Matt Barkley/Chris Weinke/Andy Dalton, with Chad Pennington/Kirk Cousins upside
3.04 Tamorrion Terry WR12 (Tier 5) 6-3 207 Florida State
If Terry tests as well as I believe he may, he could easily move up my board. If you are looking for this season’s potential Denzel Mims or Chase Claypool, look no further. Tamorrion Terry is a size-speed specimen in that mold. He is still pretty raw as a prospect, but you simply cannot teach his size and speed. He is inconsistent, and he is no sure thing to develop, but if you like to aim high, go with Scary Terry. His issues look coachable to me. He is big, and he can run; he just needs to refine his route running and spend some time with the jugs machine. My biggest concern with Terry is not with his raw abilities -- he is oozing with talent -- but rather with his dedication and discipline. (Pro Day update: Terry measured 6-foot-2 6/8 inches, 207 pounds with 9 1/2 inch hands, 33 3/8 inch arms and a 78 1/8 inch wingspan. He ran a 4.44 second 40-yard dash, 32.5 inch vertical jump, 10 feet, 6 inch broad jump, 4.53 second short shuttle, 7.00 second 3-cone drill and 15 repetitions on the bench press.)
Range of Comparisons: Cordarelle Patterson/Marquez Valdes-Scantling
3.05 D’Wayne Eskridge WR13 (Tier 5) 5-9 190 Western Michigan
Eskridge was one of the media darlings at Senior Bowl practices. He dazzled reporters with his speed in and out of cuts, and easily separated from defenders. That answered, in part, one of the questions about Eskridge: coming from a small school, how would he fare against upper echelon competition? However, Eskridge failed to capitalize upon his success, evidently opting out once he generated some buzz. There are still a number of things that will likely drive down his draft stock. First, Eskridge is an older prospect (he turns 24 in March). In an age when many receivers are coming out of school early, Eskridge played a redshirt senior season. Which brings me to my next point: Eskridge had switched primarily to corner before sustaining a season-ending broken collarbone early in the 2019 season. Eskridge switched back to receiver for his COVID-shortened 2020 breakout campaign, but prior to that, he was never a WR1, and he has never logged more than 38 receptions in a season. Eskridge is a versatile player with elite change-of-direction skills and quickness, and the speed and athleticism to gash a defense, and he could carve out a role as a receiver, but those hoping Eskridge will be the next Antonio Brown are going to be terribly disappointed.
Range of Comparisons: Artavis Scott, with Emmanuel Sanders upside
3.06 Nico Collins WR14 (Tier 5) 6-4 218 Michigan
Collins feasts on smaller defensive backs. He has the size to box them out and the strength to outmuscle them for contested balls. Collins does not create a lot of separation, although he has decent speed for a plus-sized receiver.
Range of Comparisons: Quintez Cephus/Hakeem Nicks
3.07 Kylin Hill RB10 (Tier 3) 5-11 215 Mississippi State
3.08 Khalil Herbert RB11 (Tier 3) 5-9 205 Virginia Tech
Herbert’s running style reminds me a bit of Tre Mason. Herbert may have a little better speed, but not quite as much ability to run through tackles. Herbert doesn’t show a lot of wiggle or great lateral agility, but his vision is an asset, and he hits a crease with good burst. Herbert easily sheds arm tackles, but his contact balance is nothing special. He has not been used much in the passing game, but he looks natural catching the ball and quickly tucks it away and bursts upfield. Herbert will need to work on pass protection, but he shows decent leverage and effort.
Range of Comparisons: Olandis Gary/Devin Singletary/Tre Mason/ with Thomas Jones upside
3.09 Brevin Jordan TE3 (Tier 3) 6-3 235 Miami
3.10 Ihmir Smith-Marsette WR15 (Tier 5) 6-2 186 Iowa
I feel like we may all be whiffing on Ihmir Smith-Marsette. He profiles similar to Tylan Wallace, who projects considerably higher. I feel like Smith-Marsette could end up being the steal of the draft. Smith-Marsette's numbers at Iowa were not spectacular, but that may be more of a consequence of playing in a conservative offense than a reflection of Smith-Marsette's abilities. Smith-Marsette may have to cut his teeth on special teams initially, but his speed, versatility and ball-tracking skills could earn him a role on offense. Smith-Marsette's season did not end well. He was arrested in November for driving intoxicated, plus he suffered a season-ending high ankle sprain doing a front flip as he celebrated a TD. smh (Pro Day Update: Smith-Marsette addressed his November drunk driving incident, and he at least said all of the right things. Hopefully, he learns from this moving forward. Fully recovered from the high-ankle sprain, Smith-Marsette reportedly ran a 4.43-40 and had an impressive 1.44-10-yard split, which is incredibly fast.)
Range of Comparisons: Markus Wheaton/Trevor Davis, with Christian Kirk/Darius Slayton upside
3.11 Rhamondre Stevenson RB12 (Tier 4) 6-0 232 Oklahoma
I like Stevenson as an underrated prospect. Stevenson looks to me like a downhill runner with good feet, but he also offers some value as an outlet receiver. Although his feet are nimble, Stevenson doesn’t show much lateral agility. I would love to see him land in a situation where he can excel, but recent history does not bode well for his chances to become a feature back in the NFL. The ground-and-pound running attacks of the past are not the current mode in the NFL. Stevenson is probably best suited for a rotational role, but he has some intrigue as at least a short-yardage goal-line back, with some LeGarrette Blount-like workhorse potential.
Range of Comparisons: Bo Scarbrough/Michael Bush/Rudi Johnson, with Eddie Lacy/LeGarrette Blount upside
3.12 Demetric FeltonRB13 (Tier 4) 5-10 189 UCLA
The terms often associated with Demetric Felton are “versatility” and “hybrid player”. Felton has rare receiving skills for a RB. He is a converted WR, and his route running and hands are among the very best in his class at RB. Felton also has excellent quickness and agility. Felton is elusive once he gets the ball in space, and he is dangerous once he gets free. While he may be undersized for every-down duty at RB, Felton could be an underrated offensive weapon, if he lands with an offensive coordinator who can take advantage of his skills. He could offer a team some value as a slot receiver, as well as on special teams. However, as a runner, Felton will be scheme specific, as he offers little as a between-the-tackles runner. His vision is merely average, he lacks the power to shed tackles, and he doesn’t offer much in pass protection. Felton could find some success in a Curtis Samuel/Percy Harvin type of role. Felton does appear to have the frame to add some additional weight, so perhaps he can develop as an effective NFL runner. Felton's PPR potential could be largely determined by which team drafts him, but it will also depend on whether he is considered a RB or WR. There is plenty to get excited about with Felton's college tape, but he will need to be drafted to the right team to have much more than reserve-level fantasy value. (Pro Day update: Felton had a very disappointing Pro Day, and he has moved down my board. He ran a 4.55-second 40-yard dash at 189 pounds and posted mediocre numbers in the vertical (31.5 inches) and broad jump (9 feet, 6 inches).)
Range of Comparisons: J.D. McKissic/Justin Forsett/Theo Riddick, with Curtis Samuel/Randall Cobb/Jacquizz Rodgers upside
4.01 Sage Surratt WR16 (Tier 5) 6-3 215 Wake Forest
4.02 Larry Rountree III RB14 (Tier 4) 5-10 210 Missouri
Underrated back who has some every-down back potential. Rountree was not used as a receiver much at Missouri, but his hands look solid. Rountree could be a fast-riser on draft boards as fantasy drafts approach. (Pro Day Update: Rountree measured 5-10.5, 211 lbs. with 9 1/8 inch hands, 30 3/4 inch arms and a 73 7/8 inch wingspan. He also ran a 4.62 second 40-yard dash and posted a 30 inch vertical jump, 9 feet, 0 inch broad jump, 4.47 second short shuttle, 6.96 second 3-cone drill and 18 repetitions on the bench press.) Rountree worked both with RBs and receivers, and reportedly impressed with natural hands. Rountree has good size, and although his 40-time is not going to help his draft stock, his 3-cone time was impressive, which matches the short-area quickness he shows on tape.
Range of Comparisons: Devin Singletary/Ke’Shawn Vaughn, with James Robinson upside
4.03 Jaret Patterson RB15 (Tier 4) 5-9 200 Buffalo
4.04 Seth Williams WR17 (Tier 6) 6-3 224 Auburn
Prototypical size. Williams has very strong hands and could develop into a redzone mismatch, although he lacks elite speed and elusiveness. His speed is decent, however, especially when he catches the ball in stride. Williams will need to develop his route tree as a pro, but as a raw prospect, Williams brings some intrigue, especially later in rookie drafts.
Range of Comparisons: Mike Williams, with Kenny Golladay upside
4.05 Amari Rodgers WR18 (Tier 6) 5-10 210 Clemson
4.06 Marquez Stevenson WR19 (Tier 6) 5-10 182 Houston
4.07 Simi Fehoko WR20 (Tier 6) 6-4 220 Stanford
4.08 Chatarius “Tutu” Atwell WR21 (Tier 6) 5-9 155 Louisville
4.09 Javian Hawkins RB16 (Tier 5) 5-9 182 Louisville
Speed. Javian Hawkins has an abundance of speed packed into his 5-9, 182 lb. frame. Nicknamed “Playstation”, Hawkins is electric, and his speed is not strictly open-field speed; his short-area agility and elusiveness allows him to put defenders on their heels, and he combines that with surprising strength and contact balance. Despite his diminutive stature, Hawkins attacks the line of scrimmage fearlessly. He can string together moves then burst through a small crease, and once he is through, he has the ability to rip off huge chunks of yardage. Hawkins will be limited, however, due to his size and limitations in pass protection. He has surprising strength for his size, but he lacks the beef to be more than a rotational back at the NFL level. Hawkins was not used much as a receiver at Louisville, although he appears to have solid hands. Space players with speed are at a major premium in the NFL, but he will need to develop the receiving aspect of his game to be a factor for an NFL offense.
Range of Comparisons: Dexter McCluster/DeAnthony Thomas/Andre Ellington/Noel Devine
4.10 Jaelon Darden WR22 (Tier 7) 5-9 170 North Texas
4.11 Rakeem Boyd RB17 (Tier 5) 6-0 213 Arkansas
4.12 Josh Imatorbhebhe WR23 (Tier 7) 6-2 220 Illinois
5.01 Shi Smith WR24 (Tier 7 ) 5-10 186 South Carolina
5.02 Anthony Schwartz WR25 (Tier 7) 6-0 180 Auburn
5.03 Hunter Long TE4 (Tier 3) 6-5 240 Boston College
5.04 Davis MillsQB6 (Tier 3) 6-4 225 Stanford
There is limited game film on Mills. He could emerge as a franchise QB in this deep QB class, but he is probably more of a developmental player than a pro-ready QB. Mills has the requisite size, and he is a better athlete than most give him credit for. He has the arm talent to make all of the throws at the next level, and it doesn't hurt that he comes out of Stanford, where they play a west coast, pro-style offense. I like Mills' toughness in the pocket, and I think that is an underrated aspect of his game. Mills to a QB-needy team would vault him up rookie draft boards, but he may benefit from landing behind an aging veteran where he will have some time to develop. Mills is an intriguing late-round dynasty prospect who could return handsome dividends, but you may need a deep bench and some patience.
Range of Comparisons: Ryan Tannehill/Jared Goff
5.05 Damonte Coxie WR25 (Tier 8 ) 6-3 197 Memphis
5.06 Spencer Brown RB18 (Tier 5) 6-0 235 UAB
5.07 Frank Darby WR27 (Tier 8 ) 6-1 200 Arizona State
5.08 Austin Watkins WR28 (Tier 8 ) 6-3 205 UAB
5.09 Marlon Williams WR29 (Tier 9) 6-0 215 UCF
5.10 Jalen Tolbert WR30 (Tier 9) 6-3 195 South Alabama
5.11 Whop Philyor WR31 (Tier 9) 5-11 185 Indiana
5.12 Jalen Camp WR32 (Tier 9) 6-2 220 Georgia Tech
The best of the rest . . .
QB:
Kyle Trask QB7 (Tier 3) 6-5 240 Florida
Kellen Mond QB8 (Tier 4) Texas A&M
Jamie Newman QB9 (Tier 4) 6-3 235 Wake Forest
Newman! It is a shame we never got to see what Newman could do at Georgia under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Newman is extremely raw. His footwork is sloppy, and his accuracy is inconsistent. Yet, if you were to design the ideal QB, he might look a lot like Jamie Newman. Newman is a physical specimen. He is a dual threat, which is in vogue with NFL offenses. Newman has a powerful arm and good athleticism, and he possesses the patience and fortitude to slide in the pocket and allow a play to develop, rather than relying on his feet. There is a lot to really like about Newman, but he is not likely to challenge for a starting gig early. A poor showing during Senior Bowl week hurts Newman, although after missing the 2020 season, it was expected that his timing would suffer.
Range of Comparisons: David Garrard/Jalen Hurts, with Donovan McNabb/Cam Newton upside
Feleipe Franks, Arkansas
Shane Buechele, SMU
Ian Book, Notre Dame
Sam Ehlinger, Texas
K.J. Costello, Mississippi State
Brady White, Memphis
Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern
Jack Coan, Wisconsin
Tommy DeVito, Syracuse
Charlie Brewer, Baylor
Zac Thomas, App State
Zach Smith, Tulsa
Brady Davis, Illinois State
Collin Hill, South Carolina
Kevin Thomson, Washington
Noah Johnson, S. Florida
David Moore, C. Michigan
RB:
Jah-Maine Martin 5-10 214 North Carolina A&T
I am unclear if Martin is foregoing the NFL Draft. It appears so. North Carolina A&T has now cancelled its spring season, which Martin had announced he was going to play, but he did not indicate if he would return for fall 2021.
Pooka Williams Jr. RB19 (Tier 5) 5-8 175 Kansas
Lightning quick back with excellent hands, but Williams lacks the size to be anything more than a situational back. Pooka has video-game-like start-stop and change-of-direction ability. Despite his diminutive stature, Pooka runs well in traffic and easily makes defenders miss. Pooka is extremely dangerous as a receiver, where his elite quickness is a mismatch for covering linebackers. There are some character concerns, although nothing too recent. The real knock on Williams is his size, although we have seen Tarik Cohen enjoy success, with a similar stature and skills. He is worth a shot for your PPR squad, depending on where he lands. (Pro Day update: Williams measured 5-foot-8.5 inches, 175 pounds with 30.70-inch arms. The running back posted a 31.5-inch vertical jump, 108-inch broad jump, 4.38 second 40-yard dash and 7.02 second three-cone drill.)
Range of Comparisons: Lance Dunbar/Dexter McCluster, with Tarik Cohen upside
Chris Evans RB20 5-11 (Tier 6) 216 Michigan
Evans missed the 2019 season due to academics, and in his 2020 return, he was pretty much an afterthought for the Michigan offense. When you turn on tape of Evans, you see glimpses of a back who could be in the top 5-10 of this class. He has the size/speed combo to be an every-down back, and he parlays that with some receiving ability; however, despite the talent, Evans hasn’t put that type of ability together consistently, and, after all, foot ball is a performance sport. With such a long gap since any meaningful production, Evans is strictly an NFL project who will likely go undrafted. As a fantasy sleeper, Evans has some intrigue, but he is an obvious longshot to make any noise in the pros.
Brenden Knox RB21 6-0 (Tier 6) 220 Marshall.
Knox is an underrated prospect who combines bruising power with good quickness, footwork and vision, and he is an asset in the passing game. Knox is likely to rise up draft boards, including my own, as the draft season progresses
C.J. Marable RB 5-10 200 Coastal Carolina
Josh Johnson RB 5-9 209 UL-Monroe
Gerrid Doaks RB 6-0 230 Cincinnati
Justin Henderson RB 5-10 218 LA Tech
Greg McCrae, UCF
Otis Anderson Jr., UCF
JaQuan Hardy, Tiffin
Stevie Scott, Indiana
Jake Funk, Maryland
Trey Ragas, Louisiana
Deon Jackson, Duke
Tory Carter, LSU
Mekhi Sargent, Iowa
Caleb Huntley, Ball St.
Asim Rose, Kentucky
Gary Brightwell, Arizona
Garrett Groshek, Wisconsin
Dedrick Mills, Nebraska
Mason Stokke, Wisconsin
Kene Nwangwu, Iowa St.
Shane Simpson, Virginia
Corey Taylor II, Tulsa
Harry Trotter, Kansas St.
Bryson Denley, Bowling Green
Myles Fells, Navy
WR:
Jonathan Adams Jr. WR 6-2 210 Arkansas State
Cade Johnson WR 5-10 184 South Dakota State
Warren Jackson WR 6-6 215 Colorado State
Tyler Vaughns WR 6-2 190 USC
Jacob Harris WR 6-5 29 UCF
Trevon Grimes WR 6-4 217 Florida
Desmond “Dez” Fitzpatrick WR 6-2 210 Louisville
Kawaan Baker WR 6-1 215 S. Alabama
Javon McKinley WR 6-2 215 Notre Dame
Mike Strachan WR 6-5 228 Charleston
Racey McMath WR 6-2 220 LSU
Dax Milne, BYU
T.J. Vasher, Texas Tech
Cornell Powell, Clemson
Tre Walker, San Jose State
Dazz Newsome, North Carolina
Jhamon Ausbon, Texas A&M
Bailey Gaither, San Jose State
Rico Bussey Jr., Hawaii
Damon Hazelton, Missouri
Blake Proehl, E. Carolina
Isaiah McKoy WR 6-2 200 Kent State
Brennan Eagles, Texas
Tre Nixon, UCF
Osirus Mitchell, Mississippi St.
Tarik Black, Texas
Eli Stove, Auburn
Brandon Smith, Iowa
Dillon Stoner, Oklahoma State
Terrell Jana, Virginia
Branden Mack, Temple
Antonio Nunn, Buffalo
Eric Kumah, Old Dominion
Connor Wedington, Stanford
Khalil McClain, Troy
DJ Turner, Pittsburgh
Jacob Harris, UCF
Antwan Davis, Ball State
Adrian Hardy, LA Tech
DeVontres Dukes, S. Florida
Ramaud Chaiokiao-Bowman, Northwestern
Jeremiah Haydel, Texas State
Keyion Dixon, E. Kentucky
Myron Mitchell, UAB
Adam Krumholz, Wisconsin
TE:
Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame
Quintin Morris, Bowling Green
Matt Bushman, BYU
Kenny Yeboah, Ole Miss
Tre’ McKitty, Georgia
Zach Davidson, Central Missouri
Cary Angeline, NC State
Noah Gray, Duke
Kylen Granson, SMU
Zaire Mitchell, Notre Dame College
Dylan Soehner, Iowa St.
Tony Poljan, Virginia
Josh Pederson, Louisiana-Monroe
Luke Farrell, Ohio State
Nick Eubanks, Michigan
John Bates, Boise State
Pro Wells, TCU
Miller Forristall, Alabama
Briley Moore, Kansas St.
Jack Stoll, Nebraska
Artayvious Lynn, TCU
Shaun Beyer, Iowa
Hunter Kampmoyer, Oregon
Scooter Harrington, Stanford
Carl Tucker, Alabama
I left off my player analysis for now, as well as my "range of comparisons". I will add those later, but it seemed a bit premature yet. (Update 3/04/2021 to add First Round analysis)
Most of my rankings are penciled in, with the idea that they are very preliminary. Tiers will be narrowed following pro day workouts. Your feedback is welcome!
1.01 Najee Harris RB1 (Tier 1) 6-2 229 Alabama
Najee Harris has a rare blend of size, speed and vision. Harris doesn’t have Etienne’s breakaway speed, and he runs a bit upright, but he is a tremendous athlete in a 6-2, 229 pound frame. He is an explosive, punishing runner with excellent footwork and contact balance. Harris has developed into a very reliable receiver, so he projects as a rare every-down back in the NFL. Harris needs to refine his pass-blocking skills (doesn’t every rookie runner?), but he certainly has the size and strength to be a dominant blocker.
Range of Comparisons: Steven Jackson/Matt Forte/Arian Foster/Demarco Murray
1.02 JaMarr Chase WR1 (Tier 1) 6-0 207 LSU
Chase is easily the top wideout in this class for me. Chase lacks the height of his former teammate, Justin Jefferson, but he checks every other box. He has great burst off the line of scrimmage and game-breaking speed once he gets in the open field. He plucks the ball from the air effortlessly. His hands are elite and sudden. He bullies smaller defenders. He understands how to break down a defender to get open, tracks the ball well, and once he gets the ball in his hands, he has excellent RAC skills. I know RBs typically dominate the early picks of a fantasy draft, but JaMarr Chase is one of those WR talents who deserves to be in consideration for the top spot in your dynasty drafts.
Range of Comparisons: Justin Blackmon/Odell Beckham, Jr./Chris Godwin, with Amari Cooper/Davante Adams/ DeAndre Hopkins upside
1.03 Travis Etienne RB2 (Tier 1) 5-10 205 Clemson
Etienne will be 1.01 on many dynasty draft boards. He is the most explosive and dynamic RB in his class. Etienne is a threat to score any time he touches the ball. A criticism you hear often is that Etienne cannot run effectively between the tackles, but he has made improvement in this part of his game. He sometimes reverts back to relying upon his speed to beat defenders to the corner, but Etienne has also shown he has the vision and patience to press the line of scrimmage and allow a crease to open. Etienne needs to work on his pass protection, and while he is generally effective as an outlet receiver, his hands and route running are merely adequate at this point. If he can develop the receiving element of his game, Travis Etienne could emerge as the top back from this class.
Range of Comparisons: David Wilson/CJ Spiller/Reggie Bush, with Alvin Kamara/Aaron Jones/Jamaal Charles upside
1.04 Javonte Williams RB3 (Tier 1) 5-10 220 North Carolina
Excellent balance and body control. Williams easily sheds arm tackles, and his contact balance is the best in his class. He has nimble feet for a big back. Javonta Williams also has natural hands. I see shades of LaDanian Tomlinson with the way he runs, although he lacks the speed to be in LT’s class. Williams is one of the younger prospects in this class and has low mileage. However, Javonte Williams is not without his flaws. In addition to lacking break-away speed, Williams’ absorbs a lot of punishment. Williams has to be in consideration for the top spot in this draft, and is an almost certain lock to be top 4. Javonte Williams has arguably the highest ceiling in this RB class, and his floor is similarly high.
Range of Comparisons: Josh Jacobs/Mark Ingram, with Nick Chubb/Chris Carson upside
1.05 Kyle Pitts TE1 (Tier 1) 6-6 240 Florida
NFL offenses thrive on creating mismatches, and Kyle Pitts is the ultimate mismatch nightmare for defenses. I have seen many tremendously talented TE prospects fall short, so there is a risk anytime you take a TE with an early pick; it is an extremely difficult position to project. The floor for TE prospects is always low. I have seen my share of sure-fire TE prospects never live up to the hype. Johnny Mitchell was going to take the league by storm. Kyle Brady was going to be the face of the Jets’ franchise (in a sense, he was). Bubba Franks was going to be the next Kellen Winslow (Sr). Rickey Dudley was an athletic freak. Kellen Winslow, Jr. was a can’t-miss prospect. OJ Howard was touted as the most complete TE prospect in a decade. All first-round busts. Eric Ebron (2014, 1.10) was drawing comparisons to Vernon Davis, and while he has not been a total bust, he certainly has not lived up to his draft status. Meanwhile, Tight Ends like Ben Coates (5th Round), Shannon Sharpe (7th Round), Antonio Gates (3rd Round), Travis Kelce (3rd Round), Darren Waller (6th Round), Mark Andrews (3rd Round) and George Kittle (5th Round) were not the top Tight End prospects in their draft classes. Even Rob Gronkowski (2nd Round) was drafted a round behind Jermaine Gresham. Pitts may indeed be the next Tony Gonzalez, but Tight End has proven to be an incredibly difficult position to scout. I would jump at a chance to grab Pitts with a mid first, but I am generally reluctant to take a rookie TE in the first half of Round One of my fantasy drafts. Then again, Kyle Pitts, is one of the premiere talents in this draft, regardless of position; he is a dynamic playmaker who could join the ranks as one of the elite pass-catching Tight Ends in the NFL. Kyle Pitts would be one of the top wideouts in this class, and while that does not guarantee success at the TE position (see Exhibit A, Bucky Hodges) (see also Exhibit B, David Njoku), it sure helps in this pass-first age of NFL offenses. Temper your early expectations, but the long-term ceiling for Pitts is incredibly high. Draft Destination is going to be key here. If Pitts is drafted with the idea of deploying him as a plus-sized receiver, and not as a traditional in-line TE, he is a top 5 rookie dynasty pick. (Pro Day update: Pitts showed off a spectacular 83 3/8 inch wingspan, a 10-9 broad jump and a 4.44-40.)
Range of Comparisons: Jimmy Graham/Darren Waller/Vernon Davis, with Calvin Johnson upside
1.06 Trevor Lawrence QB1 (Tier 1) 6-6 220 Clemson
I am sure to catch some pushback for putting a QB this high on my list in a start-1-QB league, but Trevor Lawrence is quite simply the best player in this draft. He is being discussed in the same breath as John Elway, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. You want him on your NFL team, and you want him on your fantasy roster; he is a set-it-and-forget-it type of prospect. Barring some catastrophic injury, you are likely to be reaping dividends for 10+ years from this draft pick. He is as safe a pick as you can make; both his floor and his ceiling are incredibly high. Keep it simple. Don’t try to get cute. Draft the most talented player, and his name is Trevor Lawrence. People will undervalue QBs in rookie dynasty drafts, citing impressive-sounding concepts like “positional scarcity”, but do not get fooled. This is dynasty we are talking about here, not redraft. A QB the likes of Trevor Lawrence is scarce indeed, and he will lock the position up for your dynasty team for many seasons to come, allowing you to focus instead on other positions. This is not your run-of-the-mill, dime-a-dozen QB prospect. Dynasty RBs have a dreadfully short shelf life. The miss rate on dynasty receivers is incredibly high, and even higher for TE prospects. Your league mates may roll their eyes and utter “amateur”, but you are not trying to impress them on draft day, you are building a winning dynasty franchise.
Range of Comparisons: Andrew Luck/Josh Allen
1.07 Jaylen Waddle WR2 (Tier 2) 5-10 183 Alabama
He doesn’t glide through defenses quite like Henry Ruggs did at Alabama, but he is every bit as fast. Defenses have to play off of him due to his extra gear, and he knows how to make teams pay if they give him even the hint of a crease. Waddle is electrifying; he is the most explosive wide receiver in his class. Waddle also has the footwork and body control to create space in the blink of an eye. If you are looking for the next Tyreek Hill, Waddle fits the mold and is the best candidate I have seen since, well, Tyreek Hill. Waddle did miss time this season with a bum ankle, and durability is an obvious concern for any undersized receiver, but Waddle is fearless and tough as nails. He gritted it out in the Championship game, showing toughness and desire. He could prove to be a better pro than his college teammate DaVonta Smith. Waddle has the ability to flip a game script at any moment. In this monkey-see-monkey-do world of the NFL, there is a premium on elite playmakers who can create mismatches, and Waddle is precisely that; he has route versatility. Defenses will be forced to account for Waddle at all times. He can win at every level.
Range of Comparisons: Keke Coutee, with Steve Smith/Tyreek Hill upside
1.08 DeVonta Smith WR3 (Tier 2) 6-1 174 Alabama
DaVonta Smith is rail thin: he is still a couple of dozen Quarter Pounders away from a buck-eighty! When Devonta Smith refused to be weighed and measured at the Senior Bowl weigh-in, he was telling NFL teams to measure his potential with his body of work at Alabama, which culminated in a National Championship and a Heisman Trophy, rather than with a scale and a measuring tape. He checks nearly all of the boxes you want from an elite receiver, but with his slight build, he may struggle to dominate in the NFL like he has at Alabama. College success and a Heisman Trophy do not guarantee success in the NFL. Ask Desmond Howard. Still, Smith has elite skills. He accelerates smoothly into his routes, his route running is top notch, and his hands and body control are arguably the best in his class. DeVonta Smith would have been an elite pick even in last season’s historic WR class. If he runs a sub-4.40 forty, Smith will vault up most draft boards. For all of the accolades, however, there is reason to remain cautious about Smith’s prospects as a pro. He has been compared to Anthony Carter and Marvin Harrison, and he certainly looks the part, but each of those receivers ran a 4.35 forty. Calvin Ridley ran a 4.45 forty. If Smith turns in a comparable time, he could share the success that Ridley has enjoyed. If Smith checks in much slower, I am likely to move him down for fear he goes the way of Peter Warrick. (Pro Day update: Smith elected not to workout, but even worse, he is not getting anywhere near a scale. He claims he weighs 170; I suspect it is somewhere in the 160s, or he would weigh in. He appears to me, on tape, as a 4.45-4.48 athlete, which is plenty fast, although not elite. It is getting increasingly more difficult to ignore the warning bells.)
Range of Comparisons: Paul Richardson/Calvin Ridley, with Stefon Diggs/Anthony Carter/Marvin Harrison extreme upside
1.09 Rashod Bateman WR4 (Tier 2) 6-2 209 Minnesota
Bateman is not a twitchy receiver; nor does he have especially loose hips or the ability to generate space with shiftiness. However, Bateman does create space with an excellent release off the line of scrimmage, he is an advanced route runner, and he possesses the physicality to beat press coverage. I have seen no evidence of Bateman being a "body catcher". Rather, I have seen him pluck the ball with excellent hand strength, which allows him to beat defenders in tight coverage.
Range of Comparisons: Alshon Jeffery/Brandon Marshall with Allen Robinson/Keenan Allen upside
1.10 Rondale Moore WR5 (Tier 3) 5-7 181 Purdue
The difference in skillsets between Moore and Waddle is minimal, but Moore checks in a couple of inches shorter. Moore also has a tendency to body catch at times, and although he has an impressive vertical, at 5-7, Moore is not going to make his living going up over defenders for contested passes. But put the ball in Moore’s hands, and watch him go to work: instant offense! He is like a RB once he has the ball, and he generates surprising power for a small guy. (Watch Moore squat 600 pounds!) Moore is not as fast or “twitchy” as Tyreek Hill, but he will break ankles and distance himself from defenders in a heartbeat. The biggest knock on Moore has been his durability. He has appeared in just 7 games over the past two seasons. He has the mentality of a much bigger player, but his 181-pound frame can only endure so much abuse. Moore initially opted out of the 2020 season, then opted back in before an “unspecified lower body injury” sidelined him once again. There were some who believed Moore was unwilling to play without an insurance policy in place, again causing some concern. Contrast that with Jaylen Waddle who took the field in the National Championship game despite injury. As exciting a prospect as Rondale Moore is, it is going to be difficult to justify spending your first-round pick on a player who spends more time in the trainer's room than on the field. (Pro Day Update: Moore blew his Pro Day workout away. Although he checked in shorter than expected, at a Bilbo-Baggins-like 5-7, he impressed with a 4.29-forty, a ridiculous 42.5-inch vertical and a 3-cone time of 6.65! Those are freakish numbers! Can you say "Baby Cheetah"? Emphasis on the "baby" part of that.)
Range of Comparisons: Jakeem Grant/Tavon Austin/Dante Hall, with Steve Smith/Tyreek Hill upside
1.11 Kenneth Gainwell RB4 (Tier 2) 5-11 201 Memphis
Gainwell is one of my favorite players in this draft. He does so many of the small things instinctually. At 194 pounds, Gainwell is a bit undersized, but he has the frame to add some bulk. If you are drafting in the back end of Round One of your dynasty draft, chances are you already have a strong team, and here is an opportunity to add another potential gem to your roster. People forget that Antonio Gibson spent a lot of time split out wide as a receiver due to the talented Gainwell’s presence in the backfield. Gainwell has often been compared to the NFL’s most elite, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara, and those are fair comparisons. Gainwell has excellent vision, and his first-step burst is among the best. Despite his lean frame, Gainwell shows exceptional body control and contact balance to fight through defenders. Gainwell also has very natural hands, and once he gets the ball in space, look out! He will need to develop his pass protection, but the sky is the limit for this incredibly talented playmaker. Look for Gainwell to move up draft boards as the draft season progresses. (Pro Day update: Gainwell checked in at 201 pounds, and he ran a 4.42-40.)
Range of Comparisons: Trung Candidate/Matt Breida/Tony Pollard/Raheem Mostert, with Aaron Jones/Christian McCaffrey/Reggie Bush/Alvin Kamara upside
1.12 Terrace Marshall WR6 (Tier 3) 6-3 201 LSU
The former five-star recruit emerged this season from the ominous shadows of Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase. Marshall has the height and catch radius to be a solid redzone threat for an NFL team. He has long speed, although he is a bit of a straight-line, long strider. Like former teammate Justin Jefferson, Terrace Marshall offers versatility. He can win on the outside as well as out of the slot. Marshall's ceiling is extremely high. (Pro Day update: Marshall impressed with a 4.38-40 time and 39-inch vertical.)
Range of Comparisons: Rueben Randle/Mohamed Sanu, with Justin Jefferson upside
2.01 Michael Carter RB5 (Tier 2) 5-8 201 North Carolina
Carter shows good vision and patience running between the tackles. I see shades of D’Andre Swift in his game, although Carter lacks the size and power to shed tacklers. Like Swift, Carter patiently presses the line, then has the vision and acceleration to hit the gaps, and enough wiggle to gain extra yardage. Carter may not be suited to be a bellcow-type back, but he could certainly find a role with the right team as a complementary receiving back who brings the lightning to a bigger back’s thunder. (Pro Day update: Carter's 40 time was not especially exciting (4.50), but it is sufficient. However, Carter’s 3.98-second short shuttle time would have been the second-best time among all players at last year’s combine, and his 6.87-second three-cone time would have been tied for fourth-best.)
Range of Comparisons: Nyhein Hines/Giovani Bernard/Dion Lewis/Duke Johnson, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Austin Ekeler upside
2.02 Elijah Moore WR7 (Tier 3) 5-9 185 Mississippi
Elijah Moore is about the size of Steve Smith, and when you watch Moore’s highlights, you cannot help but see the similarities. Elijah Moore is scrappy like Steve Smith and, like Smith, has excellent quickness and athleticism. Moore posted a blistering 4.32-40 at his Pro Day workout, along with a 4.00 short shuttle and a 6.65-second 3 cone drill. Moore's stock is rising quickly. Moore uses his elite speed and athleticism to get open, and he is a terror once he gets the ball. In an 8-game, COVID-shortened 2020 season at Ole Miss, Moore put up ridiculous numbers: 86 receptions, 1,193 yards and 8 TDs. Moore is smaller than desired, but he checks every other box. This kid is a dynamic receiver with explosive playmaking ability. Put him with the right team, and Moore is a sure first-round dynasty pick.
Range of Comparisons: Cole Beasley, with Johnnie Morton/Steve Smith upside
2.03 Justin Fields QB2 (Tier 2) 6-3 228 Ohio State
Justin Fields has a big-time arm, and he can make all of the throws at the next level. He isn’t the most instinctive QB in this class at reading a defensive alignment and going though his progressions, but I would not consider it a fatal flaw, either, but more of a byproduct of the Ohio State offense. Fields has a sturdy build, in the mold of Dak Prescott or Cam Newton, and he is as much of a threat to throw the ball on the move as he is to tuck the ball and run. It is his running ability, however, which pushes Fields this high as a fantasy signal caller. Zach Wilson may be taken ahead of Fields in the NFL Draft, but Fields arguably offers the higher fantasy value. (Pro Day update: Fields ran a 4.45 second 40-yard dash, which was really fast for the position. He later dazzled with some high difficulty throws on the field.)
Range of Comparisons: Byron Leftwich, with Cam Newton/Deshaun Watson/Dak Prescott upside
2.04 Jermar Jefferson
RB6 (Tier 2) 5-10 210 Oregon StateI have read some criticism of Jefferson’s vision, but I believe that one of Jermar Jefferson’s best strengths; he combines good patience working off of his blocks with instinctive running. He can explode through a crease quickly and runs with surprising power, good contact balance, excellent lateral agility and quickness, and adequate speed. Jefferson does have a tendency to rely a bit too much upon his speed, and while that may have proven effective against PAC-12 opponents, it may not bring great success in the NFL. Jermar Jefferson can be an effective check-down receiver; he has reliable hands, and once he is in space, he has the run skills and creativity to generate yards in chunks. Jefferson is a multi-faceted back, and at 5-10, 210-215, he has the size and frame to develop into a three-down back. You are drafting Jefferson for his tremendous upside potential. His destination, however, will play a huge role in determining his fantasy draft slot.
Range of Comparisons: Mike Weber/Ronald Jones, with Aaron Jones upside
2.05 Zach Wilson QB3 (Tier 2) 6-3 209 BYU
Wilson is a bit of a late bloomer, and there is some understandable concern he will prove to be a one-year wonder, but his arm is for real. Zach Wilson version-2020 routinely made some of the best throws I have seen from any QB in this class, and I am not talking strictly off-platform throws. He makes quick reads and throws from various angles and on the run extremely well, and his quick release is reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers. Wilson can extend plays with his legs, and he is able to tuck the ball and make positive yards when he needs to. This top-4 QB group is mostly interchangeable after Lawrence. With a number of the old guard QBs reaching the end, a new class of young signal callers is emerging, and if your fantasy regime is seeking a dose of youth at the position, this is a good year to make that investment. Grab Wilson with confidence. If there is a reason for concern, it is green and rhymes with "regrets". The Jets have been a QB wasteland. This is a new coaching regime, so hopefully the curse is lifted.
Range of Comparisons: Blaine Gabbert/Baker Mayfield/Tony Romo, with Aaron Rodgers upside
2.06 Trey Sermon
RB7 (Tier 2) 6-0 221 Ohio StateSermon is not going to wow you with his athleticism; he is merely an adequate athlete in most regards. However, he has good size for the position, and the traits he possesses lend themselves well to success in the NFL. Sermon attacks the line of scrimmage, and he has the vision, short-area burst and agility to exploit holes in the defense. Sermon sheds tackles as well as any back in this class not named Javonte Williams, churns out yards on contact and routinely falls forward. His contact balance rivals his vision as his best trait. Sermon will also endear himself to an NFL coach with his ball security: In 423 college carries, Sermon did not fumble the football once! Sermon does not have breakaway speed, and his usage in the passing game has been limited, but Sermon could find a sizeable early-down role with the right team, and he has shown glimpses of some ability in the passing game, as well. (Pro Day update: Sermon measured 6-foot 3/8 inches and 215 pounds with 9 3/8 inch hands, 33 3/8 inch arms and a 77 1/8 inch wingspan. He clocked a 4.57 second 40-yard dash and posted a 37 inch vertical jump, 10-feet, 5-inch broad jump, 4.28 second short shuttle, and a 6.83 second 3-cone drill. Sermon was moving quickly through his 3-cone drill.) When I heard Matt Waldman has Sermon as his top RB in this class, it made my ears perk up. Sermon tested well at his Pro Day. Sermon was pretty mediocre with Ohio State until the end of the year. He put up 112 yards on only 10 rushing attempts against Michigan State, then he destroyed Northwestern in the Big 10 Championship game, rushing for 331 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He followed that up with an impressive 193 yards rushing to beat Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. Sadly, a shoulder injury knocked Sermon out of the National Championship game on the opening drive. Depending on what occurs in the NFL Relocation Program (a/k/a NFL Draft), Sermon could vault his way up dynasty draft boards considerably. (Imagine Sermon as a Steeler!)
Range of Comparisons: TJ Yeldon/Jordan Howard/Carlos Hyde, with Josh Jacobs upside
2.07 Pat Freiermuth TE2 (Tier 2) 6-5 260 Penn State
Freiermuth is the most complete TE to come out of college since T.J. Hockenson. He does not bring the elite athleticism of Kyle Pitts, but he is perhaps more well-rounded. It is always difficult to project rookie TE prospects, but Freiermuth is arguably a TE1 immediately upon being drafted. He is athletic, runs advanced routes, tracks the ball well, and he is a natural-hands catcher with the size, physicality, catch radius and quickness to be a red zone nightmare for defenses. He is too big and physical for safeties and too quick for linebackers. Freiermuth lacks the breakaway speed to routinely beat defenders deep, but he understands how to get open on short and intermediate routes. His run blocking is still a bit inconsistent, although he shows excellent leverage and technique. Freiermuth will quickly endear himself to his QB with his reliable hands and physicality; in three seasons at Penn State, Freiermuth did not drop a single red zone target! Freiermuth's 2020 season ended with a shoulder injury, and he is working his way back from surgery to repair a torn anterior and posterior labrum, but he should be back to full speed in time for training camp. Nicknamed "Baby Gronk", athletically, Freiermuth compares favorably to Gronk, although he does not come into the NFL with Gronk-like blocking dominance.
Range of Comparisons: Hunter Henry/TJ Hockenson, with Rob Gronkowski upside
2.08 Trey Lance QB4 (Tier 2) 6-4 224 NDSU
Trey Lance may be the most physically gifted QB in this class, but he is still extremely raw, and when you combine limited playing time with a lack of top-shelf competition, it makes Lance a very difficult evaluation. Trey Lance has a howitzer for an arm, and he shows a nice touch on his deep passes, but sometimes he struggles with reads and accuracy. An alarmingly low 44% of Lance’s career passes beyond the line of scrimmage were deemed accurate, according to PFF. "Comparing that to all the first-round quarterbacks since 2017, it would be the worst by a considerable margin." He is a punishing runner, reminiscent of Cam Newton, but he too often defaults to his running ability. You are probably not drafting Lance to be your 2021 fantasy QB, but his long-term ceiling is ridiculously high. (Pro Day Update: Lance confirmed what we already knew, for the most part; he has an elite arm, but he is raw and struggles some with accuracy issues. Daniel Jeremiah compared him to Josh Allen, noting, "He was able to stretch the field with that power arm. Some touch throws down the field got away from him, particularly to the right side, but . . . he is dripping with ability.")
Range of Comparisons: Colin Kaepernick/Steve McNair, with Josh Allen/Cam Newton upside
2.09 Chuba Hubbard
RB8 (Tier 3) 6-0 208 Oklahoma StateMuch has been made of Hubbard’s 2020 regression, but he did play through a nagging ankle injury, which may have contributed to his declining numbers. Hubbard has excellent straight-line speed, but his game is not limited to speed. He shows good interior patience and vision at the line of scrimmage and the ability to plant his foot and burst through a hole when it presents itself. Hubbard generally runs with good pad level, although he lacks the power in his legs to drive through defenders. His contact balance is merely adequate, and he will need to improve in the receiving game to maximize his value in the NFL, but the 2019 version of Chuba Hubbard put up a ridiculous stat line; that Chuba Hubbard can play on Sundays. Hubbard may need to carve out a rotational role as he develops some areas of his game, but he has the raw tools to become a team's primary back. (Pro Day update: Hubbard ran a 4.48-40, 4.26-short shuttle and 7.24 second 3-cone drill while posting a 36 inch vertical jump, 10-feet broad jump, and 20 repetitions on the bench press.)
Range of Comparisons: Raheem Mostert/Tevin Coleman/Jerious Norwood, with Darren McFadden/Robert Smith upside
2.10 Kadarius Toney WR8 (Tier 4) 5-11 194 Florida
Toney isn’t an especially big guy, but this kid is tough as nails and extremely quick and agile. There are times when he appears to simply be uncoverable. Toney knows how to get open, and he plays with maximum effort – he has a high-energy motor, and he shows that same effort as a blocker. Toney is fearless over the middle and on jet sweeps. He is a jitterbug in traffic and fights for every yard. Kadarius Toney is the classic “offensive weapon”. It is a concern that he did not breakout until his age 22 season, but the breakout is real. His value will depend on who drafts him; Toney could either be an exciting returner and offensive gadget player or a potential offensive game-breaker. One of the key traits I look for in a WR prospect is an ability to create separation from defenders, and Toney possesses this quality in spades. I do worry, however, about how his game translates to the NFL. Toney isn't an especially smooth athlete. He moves like his pants are on fire, with all of his limbs sometimes flailing. (Pro Day Update: Toney ran a blazing 4.39-40 at his Pro Day workout, along with a 39.5-inch vertical jump, 11-4-in broad jump, 4.25-second short shuttle, and 6.88-second 3-cone drill.)
Range of Comparisons: Ryan Switzer, with Percy Harvin/Diontae Johnson/TY Hilton upside
2.11 Tylan Wallace WR9 (Tier 4) 6-0 190 Oklahoma State
Wallace needs to show more of a route tree, although the routes Wallace does run are effective. A former track star, Wallace is not a Tyreek Hill-like burner, but he has very good speed. Wallace shows good vision and strength once he gets the ball in his hands, but he needs work to develop as a blocker. His ball tracking skills and timing on jump balls are perhaps his best strengths. He generally shows good hand strength snaring the ball, and he quickly turns upfield once he has secured it. Wallace exploded onto the scene in 2018 with a dynamic sophomore season, before a 2019 knee injury set him back. (Tylan Wallace clocked in at 4.39 in the 40 at EXOS pro day.)
Range of Comparisons: Kenny Stills/Nelson Agholor/Christian Kirk
2.12 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR10 (Tier 4) 6-1 195 USC
Younger brother of Packer wideout Eqaunameous St. Brown, Amon-Ra projects as a better NFL wideout than his bigger brother. St. Brown doesn’t have the size or athleticism of many of the top receivers in this class, but he attacks the ball and wins at snaring contested passes. His route running is precise, although his route tree at USC was limited. He is quick in and out of his breaks, and he creates separation with feet and technique. St. Brown lacks top speed, but his short-area quickness and agility are excellent; he uses a variety of moves, head fakes, excellent route running, and physicality to gain an advantage at the line of scrimmage. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a technician with sticky hands, and there is a role on Sundays for a player with those qualities.
Range of Comparisons: Antwaan Randle-El/Willie Snead/Daesean Hamilton, with Jarvis Landry/Hines Ward/Keenan Allen upside
3.01 Dyami Brown WR11 (Tier 4) 6-0 185 North Carolina
Dyami Brown has the speed to take the top off a defense, and he puts defenders in an immediate deficit with his release off the line of scrimmage. He gets off the line as well as nearly any receiver in this class, but I worry he will struggle to beat press coverage in the NFL. Brown was limited to mostly vertical routes at North Carolina, and he shows inconsistent hands, but he is only 21 years old, and his ceiling is incredibly high. Brown will endear himself to an NFL team with his willingness and effectiveness blocking downfield. Brown doesn’t excel at winning contested balls downfield, and he will need some work to become effective out of the slot. I really like Dyami Brown’s competitiveness and toughness. Brown is still a bit raw as a prospect, and he may need to grow into his role in the NFL, but you are drafting Brown for his substantial upside. He may never be a true WR1 for an NFL team, but he could grow into a complementary role. (Pro Day update: Brown measured 6-foot 5/8 inches and 189 pounds with 9 5/8 inch hands, 32 3/4 inch arms and a 77 inch wingspan. He posted a 4.46 second 40-yard dash, 35 inch vertical jump, 10-feet, 8-inch broad jump, 4.35 second short shuttle, 6.87 second 3-cone drill and 18 repetitions on the bench press.)
Range of Comparisons: Mike Wallace/Sterling Shepard, with Calvin Ridley upside
3.02 Elijah Mitchell
RB9 (Tier 3) 5-11 217 Louisiana3.03 Mac Jones QB5 (Tier 3) 6-3 214 Alabama
Excellent pocket awareness. Mac Jones is competitive, and he has excellent accuracy along with a high football IQ. Jones does not have an especially powerful arm, but he throws an accurate deep ball. Mac Jones can escape the pocket, but his athleticism is merely average, and he is not going to make plays downfield with his feet. Jones has an advanced understanding of the game, he processes his reads rapidly, instinctively looks off defenders and has the accuracy and confidence in his arm to put the ball in tight windows. This past season at Alabama, Jones didn't put up quite Joe Burrow 2019 passing numbers, but they were nearly as impressive (4,500 yards passing with 41 TDs and only 4 ints). McShay’s comparison to Brady and Marino is extremely lofty praise -- and undeserved. Mac Jones is a high-IQ pocket passer like those two NFL elites, but that is pretty much where the comparisons start and end. Brady and Marino are generational talents. Mac Jones may be drafted as high as the first half of Round One in the NFL Draft, so he should get a chance early to make his mark. In the right system, I believe Mac Jones could be an efficient starter, but I am not especially excited about Mac Jones in a start-1 QB fantasy league.
Range of Comparisons: Matt Barkley/Chris Weinke/Andy Dalton, with Chad Pennington/Kirk Cousins upside
3.04 Tamorrion Terry WR12 (Tier 5) 6-3 207 Florida State
If Terry tests as well as I believe he may, he could easily move up my board. If you are looking for this season’s potential Denzel Mims or Chase Claypool, look no further. Tamorrion Terry is a size-speed specimen in that mold. He is still pretty raw as a prospect, but you simply cannot teach his size and speed. He is inconsistent, and he is no sure thing to develop, but if you like to aim high, go with Scary Terry. His issues look coachable to me. He is big, and he can run; he just needs to refine his route running and spend some time with the jugs machine. My biggest concern with Terry is not with his raw abilities -- he is oozing with talent -- but rather with his dedication and discipline. (Pro Day update: Terry measured 6-foot-2 6/8 inches, 207 pounds with 9 1/2 inch hands, 33 3/8 inch arms and a 78 1/8 inch wingspan. He ran a 4.44 second 40-yard dash, 32.5 inch vertical jump, 10 feet, 6 inch broad jump, 4.53 second short shuttle, 7.00 second 3-cone drill and 15 repetitions on the bench press.)
Range of Comparisons: Cordarelle Patterson/Marquez Valdes-Scantling
3.05 D’Wayne Eskridge WR13 (Tier 5) 5-9 190 Western Michigan
Eskridge was one of the media darlings at Senior Bowl practices. He dazzled reporters with his speed in and out of cuts, and easily separated from defenders. That answered, in part, one of the questions about Eskridge: coming from a small school, how would he fare against upper echelon competition? However, Eskridge failed to capitalize upon his success, evidently opting out once he generated some buzz. There are still a number of things that will likely drive down his draft stock. First, Eskridge is an older prospect (he turns 24 in March). In an age when many receivers are coming out of school early, Eskridge played a redshirt senior season. Which brings me to my next point: Eskridge had switched primarily to corner before sustaining a season-ending broken collarbone early in the 2019 season. Eskridge switched back to receiver for his COVID-shortened 2020 breakout campaign, but prior to that, he was never a WR1, and he has never logged more than 38 receptions in a season. Eskridge is a versatile player with elite change-of-direction skills and quickness, and the speed and athleticism to gash a defense, and he could carve out a role as a receiver, but those hoping Eskridge will be the next Antonio Brown are going to be terribly disappointed.
Range of Comparisons: Artavis Scott, with Emmanuel Sanders upside
3.06 Nico Collins WR14 (Tier 5) 6-4 218 Michigan
Collins feasts on smaller defensive backs. He has the size to box them out and the strength to outmuscle them for contested balls. Collins does not create a lot of separation, although he has decent speed for a plus-sized receiver.
Range of Comparisons: Quintez Cephus/Hakeem Nicks
3.07 Kylin Hill RB10 (Tier 3) 5-11 215 Mississippi State
3.08 Khalil Herbert RB11 (Tier 3) 5-9 205 Virginia Tech
Herbert’s running style reminds me a bit of Tre Mason. Herbert may have a little better speed, but not quite as much ability to run through tackles. Herbert doesn’t show a lot of wiggle or great lateral agility, but his vision is an asset, and he hits a crease with good burst. Herbert easily sheds arm tackles, but his contact balance is nothing special. He has not been used much in the passing game, but he looks natural catching the ball and quickly tucks it away and bursts upfield. Herbert will need to work on pass protection, but he shows decent leverage and effort.
Range of Comparisons: Olandis Gary/Devin Singletary/Tre Mason/ with Thomas Jones upside
3.09 Brevin Jordan TE3 (Tier 3) 6-3 235 Miami
3.10 Ihmir Smith-Marsette WR15 (Tier 5) 6-2 186 Iowa
I feel like we may all be whiffing on Ihmir Smith-Marsette. He profiles similar to Tylan Wallace, who projects considerably higher. I feel like Smith-Marsette could end up being the steal of the draft. Smith-Marsette's numbers at Iowa were not spectacular, but that may be more of a consequence of playing in a conservative offense than a reflection of Smith-Marsette's abilities. Smith-Marsette may have to cut his teeth on special teams initially, but his speed, versatility and ball-tracking skills could earn him a role on offense. Smith-Marsette's season did not end well. He was arrested in November for driving intoxicated, plus he suffered a season-ending high ankle sprain doing a front flip as he celebrated a TD. smh (Pro Day Update: Smith-Marsette addressed his November drunk driving incident, and he at least said all of the right things. Hopefully, he learns from this moving forward. Fully recovered from the high-ankle sprain, Smith-Marsette reportedly ran a 4.43-40 and had an impressive 1.44-10-yard split, which is incredibly fast.)
Range of Comparisons: Markus Wheaton/Trevor Davis, with Christian Kirk/Darius Slayton upside
3.11 Rhamondre Stevenson RB12 (Tier 4) 6-0 232 Oklahoma
I like Stevenson as an underrated prospect. Stevenson looks to me like a downhill runner with good feet, but he also offers some value as an outlet receiver. Although his feet are nimble, Stevenson doesn’t show much lateral agility. I would love to see him land in a situation where he can excel, but recent history does not bode well for his chances to become a feature back in the NFL. The ground-and-pound running attacks of the past are not the current mode in the NFL. Stevenson is probably best suited for a rotational role, but he has some intrigue as at least a short-yardage goal-line back, with some LeGarrette Blount-like workhorse potential.
Range of Comparisons: Bo Scarbrough/Michael Bush/Rudi Johnson, with Eddie Lacy/LeGarrette Blount upside
3.12 Demetric Felton
RB13 (Tier 4) 5-10 189 UCLAThe terms often associated with Demetric Felton are “versatility” and “hybrid player”. Felton has rare receiving skills for a RB. He is a converted WR, and his route running and hands are among the very best in his class at RB. Felton also has excellent quickness and agility. Felton is elusive once he gets the ball in space, and he is dangerous once he gets free. While he may be undersized for every-down duty at RB, Felton could be an underrated offensive weapon, if he lands with an offensive coordinator who can take advantage of his skills. He could offer a team some value as a slot receiver, as well as on special teams. However, as a runner, Felton will be scheme specific, as he offers little as a between-the-tackles runner. His vision is merely average, he lacks the power to shed tackles, and he doesn’t offer much in pass protection. Felton could find some success in a Curtis Samuel/Percy Harvin type of role. Felton does appear to have the frame to add some additional weight, so perhaps he can develop as an effective NFL runner. Felton's PPR potential could be largely determined by which team drafts him, but it will also depend on whether he is considered a RB or WR. There is plenty to get excited about with Felton's college tape, but he will need to be drafted to the right team to have much more than reserve-level fantasy value. (Pro Day update: Felton had a very disappointing Pro Day, and he has moved down my board. He ran a 4.55-second 40-yard dash at 189 pounds and posted mediocre numbers in the vertical (31.5 inches) and broad jump (9 feet, 6 inches).)
Range of Comparisons: J.D. McKissic/Justin Forsett/Theo Riddick, with Curtis Samuel/Randall Cobb/Jacquizz Rodgers upside
4.01 Sage Surratt WR16 (Tier 5) 6-3 215 Wake Forest
4.02 Larry Rountree III RB14 (Tier 4) 5-10 210 Missouri
Underrated back who has some every-down back potential. Rountree was not used as a receiver much at Missouri, but his hands look solid. Rountree could be a fast-riser on draft boards as fantasy drafts approach. (Pro Day Update: Rountree measured 5-10.5, 211 lbs. with 9 1/8 inch hands, 30 3/4 inch arms and a 73 7/8 inch wingspan. He also ran a 4.62 second 40-yard dash and posted a 30 inch vertical jump, 9 feet, 0 inch broad jump, 4.47 second short shuttle, 6.96 second 3-cone drill and 18 repetitions on the bench press.) Rountree worked both with RBs and receivers, and reportedly impressed with natural hands. Rountree has good size, and although his 40-time is not going to help his draft stock, his 3-cone time was impressive, which matches the short-area quickness he shows on tape.
Range of Comparisons: Devin Singletary/Ke’Shawn Vaughn, with James Robinson upside
4.03 Jaret Patterson RB15 (Tier 4) 5-9 200 Buffalo
4.04 Seth Williams WR17 (Tier 6) 6-3 224 Auburn
Prototypical size. Williams has very strong hands and could develop into a redzone mismatch, although he lacks elite speed and elusiveness. His speed is decent, however, especially when he catches the ball in stride. Williams will need to develop his route tree as a pro, but as a raw prospect, Williams brings some intrigue, especially later in rookie drafts.
Range of Comparisons: Mike Williams, with Kenny Golladay upside
4.05 Amari Rodgers WR18 (Tier 6) 5-10 210 Clemson
4.06 Marquez Stevenson WR19 (Tier 6) 5-10 182 Houston
4.07 Simi Fehoko WR20 (Tier 6) 6-4 220 Stanford
4.08 Chatarius “Tutu” Atwell WR21 (Tier 6) 5-9 155 Louisville
4.09 Javian Hawkins RB16 (Tier 5) 5-9 182 Louisville
Speed. Javian Hawkins has an abundance of speed packed into his 5-9, 182 lb. frame. Nicknamed “Playstation”, Hawkins is electric, and his speed is not strictly open-field speed; his short-area agility and elusiveness allows him to put defenders on their heels, and he combines that with surprising strength and contact balance. Despite his diminutive stature, Hawkins attacks the line of scrimmage fearlessly. He can string together moves then burst through a small crease, and once he is through, he has the ability to rip off huge chunks of yardage. Hawkins will be limited, however, due to his size and limitations in pass protection. He has surprising strength for his size, but he lacks the beef to be more than a rotational back at the NFL level. Hawkins was not used much as a receiver at Louisville, although he appears to have solid hands. Space players with speed are at a major premium in the NFL, but he will need to develop the receiving aspect of his game to be a factor for an NFL offense.
Range of Comparisons: Dexter McCluster/DeAnthony Thomas/Andre Ellington/Noel Devine
4.10 Jaelon Darden WR22 (Tier 7) 5-9 170 North Texas
4.11 Rakeem Boyd RB17 (Tier 5) 6-0 213 Arkansas
4.12 Josh Imatorbhebhe WR23 (Tier 7) 6-2 220 Illinois
5.01 Shi Smith WR24 (Tier 7 ) 5-10 186 South Carolina
5.02 Anthony Schwartz WR25 (Tier 7) 6-0 180 Auburn
5.03 Hunter Long TE4 (Tier 3) 6-5 240 Boston College
5.04 Davis Mills
QB6 (Tier 3) 6-4 225 StanfordThere is limited game film on Mills. He could emerge as a franchise QB in this deep QB class, but he is probably more of a developmental player than a pro-ready QB. Mills has the requisite size, and he is a better athlete than most give him credit for. He has the arm talent to make all of the throws at the next level, and it doesn't hurt that he comes out of Stanford, where they play a west coast, pro-style offense. I like Mills' toughness in the pocket, and I think that is an underrated aspect of his game. Mills to a QB-needy team would vault him up rookie draft boards, but he may benefit from landing behind an aging veteran where he will have some time to develop. Mills is an intriguing late-round dynasty prospect who could return handsome dividends, but you may need a deep bench and some patience.
Range of Comparisons: Ryan Tannehill/Jared Goff
5.05 Damonte Coxie WR25 (Tier 8 ) 6-3 197 Memphis
5.06 Spencer Brown RB18 (Tier 5) 6-0 235 UAB
5.07 Frank Darby WR27 (Tier 8 ) 6-1 200 Arizona State
5.08 Austin Watkins WR28 (Tier 8 ) 6-3 205 UAB
5.09 Marlon Williams WR29 (Tier 9) 6-0 215 UCF
5.10 Jalen Tolbert WR30 (Tier 9) 6-3 195 South Alabama
5.11 Whop Philyor WR31 (Tier 9) 5-11 185 Indiana
5.12 Jalen Camp WR32 (Tier 9) 6-2 220 Georgia Tech
The best of the rest . . .
QB:
Kyle Trask QB7 (Tier 3) 6-5 240 Florida
Kellen Mond QB8 (Tier 4) Texas A&M
Jamie Newman QB9 (Tier 4) 6-3 235 Wake Forest
Newman! It is a shame we never got to see what Newman could do at Georgia under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Newman is extremely raw. His footwork is sloppy, and his accuracy is inconsistent. Yet, if you were to design the ideal QB, he might look a lot like Jamie Newman. Newman is a physical specimen. He is a dual threat, which is in vogue with NFL offenses. Newman has a powerful arm and good athleticism, and he possesses the patience and fortitude to slide in the pocket and allow a play to develop, rather than relying on his feet. There is a lot to really like about Newman, but he is not likely to challenge for a starting gig early. A poor showing during Senior Bowl week hurts Newman, although after missing the 2020 season, it was expected that his timing would suffer.
Range of Comparisons: David Garrard/Jalen Hurts, with Donovan McNabb/Cam Newton upside
Feleipe Franks, Arkansas
Shane Buechele, SMU
Ian Book, Notre Dame
Sam Ehlinger, Texas
K.J. Costello, Mississippi State
Brady White, Memphis
Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern
Jack Coan, Wisconsin
Tommy DeVito, Syracuse
Charlie Brewer, Baylor
Zac Thomas, App State
Zach Smith, Tulsa
Brady Davis, Illinois State
Collin Hill, South Carolina
Kevin Thomson, Washington
Noah Johnson, S. Florida
David Moore, C. Michigan
RB:
I am unclear if Martin is foregoing the NFL Draft. It appears so. North Carolina A&T has now cancelled its spring season, which Martin had announced he was going to play, but he did not indicate if he would return for fall 2021.
Pooka Williams Jr. RB19 (Tier 5) 5-8 175 Kansas
Lightning quick back with excellent hands, but Williams lacks the size to be anything more than a situational back. Pooka has video-game-like start-stop and change-of-direction ability. Despite his diminutive stature, Pooka runs well in traffic and easily makes defenders miss. Pooka is extremely dangerous as a receiver, where his elite quickness is a mismatch for covering linebackers. There are some character concerns, although nothing too recent. The real knock on Williams is his size, although we have seen Tarik Cohen enjoy success, with a similar stature and skills. He is worth a shot for your PPR squad, depending on where he lands. (Pro Day update: Williams measured 5-foot-8.5 inches, 175 pounds with 30.70-inch arms. The running back posted a 31.5-inch vertical jump, 108-inch broad jump, 4.38 second 40-yard dash and 7.02 second three-cone drill.)
Range of Comparisons: Lance Dunbar/Dexter McCluster, with Tarik Cohen upside
Chris Evans RB20 5-11 (Tier 6) 216 Michigan
Evans missed the 2019 season due to academics, and in his 2020 return, he was pretty much an afterthought for the Michigan offense. When you turn on tape of Evans, you see glimpses of a back who could be in the top 5-10 of this class. He has the size/speed combo to be an every-down back, and he parlays that with some receiving ability; however, despite the talent, Evans hasn’t put that type of ability together consistently, and, after all, foot ball is a performance sport. With such a long gap since any meaningful production, Evans is strictly an NFL project who will likely go undrafted. As a fantasy sleeper, Evans has some intrigue, but he is an obvious longshot to make any noise in the pros.
Brenden Knox RB21 6-0 (Tier 6) 220 Marshall.
Knox is an underrated prospect who combines bruising power with good quickness, footwork and vision, and he is an asset in the passing game. Knox is likely to rise up draft boards, including my own, as the draft season progresses
C.J. Marable RB 5-10 200 Coastal Carolina
Josh Johnson RB 5-9 209 UL-Monroe
Gerrid Doaks RB 6-0 230 Cincinnati
Justin Henderson RB 5-10 218 LA Tech
Greg McCrae, UCF
Otis Anderson Jr., UCF
JaQuan Hardy, Tiffin
Stevie Scott, Indiana
Jake Funk, Maryland
Trey Ragas, Louisiana
Deon Jackson, Duke
Tory Carter, LSU
Mekhi Sargent, Iowa
Caleb Huntley, Ball St.
Asim Rose, Kentucky
Gary Brightwell, Arizona
Garrett Groshek, Wisconsin
Dedrick Mills, Nebraska
Mason Stokke, Wisconsin
Kene Nwangwu, Iowa St.
Shane Simpson, Virginia
Corey Taylor II, Tulsa
Harry Trotter, Kansas St.
Bryson Denley, Bowling Green
Myles Fells, Navy
WR:
Jonathan Adams Jr. WR 6-2 210 Arkansas State
Cade Johnson WR 5-10 184 South Dakota State
Warren Jackson WR 6-6 215 Colorado State
Tyler Vaughns WR 6-2 190 USC
Jacob Harris WR 6-5 29 UCF
Trevon Grimes WR 6-4 217 Florida
Desmond “Dez” Fitzpatrick WR 6-2 210 Louisville
Kawaan Baker WR 6-1 215 S. Alabama
Javon McKinley WR 6-2 215 Notre Dame
Mike Strachan WR 6-5 228 Charleston
Racey McMath WR 6-2 220 LSU
Dax Milne, BYU
T.J. Vasher, Texas Tech
Cornell Powell, Clemson
Tre Walker, San Jose State
Dazz Newsome, North Carolina
Jhamon Ausbon, Texas A&M
Bailey Gaither, San Jose State
Rico Bussey Jr., Hawaii
Damon Hazelton, Missouri
Blake Proehl, E. Carolina
Isaiah McKoy WR 6-2 200 Kent State
Brennan Eagles, Texas
Tre Nixon, UCF
Osirus Mitchell, Mississippi St.
Tarik Black, Texas
Eli Stove, Auburn
Brandon Smith, Iowa
Dillon Stoner, Oklahoma State
Terrell Jana, Virginia
Branden Mack, Temple
Antonio Nunn, Buffalo
Eric Kumah, Old Dominion
Connor Wedington, Stanford
Khalil McClain, Troy
DJ Turner, Pittsburgh
Jacob Harris, UCF
Antwan Davis, Ball State
Adrian Hardy, LA Tech
DeVontres Dukes, S. Florida
Ramaud Chaiokiao-Bowman, Northwestern
Jeremiah Haydel, Texas State
Keyion Dixon, E. Kentucky
Myron Mitchell, UAB
Adam Krumholz, Wisconsin
TE:
Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame
Quintin Morris, Bowling Green
Matt Bushman, BYU
Kenny Yeboah, Ole Miss
Tre’ McKitty, Georgia
Zach Davidson, Central Missouri
Cary Angeline, NC State
Noah Gray, Duke
Kylen Granson, SMU
Zaire Mitchell, Notre Dame College
Dylan Soehner, Iowa St.
Tony Poljan, Virginia
Josh Pederson, Louisiana-Monroe
Luke Farrell, Ohio State
Nick Eubanks, Michigan
John Bates, Boise State
Pro Wells, TCU
Miller Forristall, Alabama
Briley Moore, Kansas St.
Jack Stoll, Nebraska
Artayvious Lynn, TCU
Shaun Beyer, Iowa
Hunter Kampmoyer, Oregon
Scooter Harrington, Stanford
Carl Tucker, Alabama
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