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Crazy to take 'dre at #3? (1 Viewer)

tim_whatley

Footballguy
Am I crazy to consider Andre at #3? I am in a 10 team snake draft. I like ChJo and AP, who will likely go 1-2, but I am in the minority on MJD. I do like RRice, and that would be logical pick there, but I think 'dre is really the only solid no doubt stud ar WR.

Tell me I am crazy.

 
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It depends on your scoring system. PPR it might be a good move, but there's no way I would do it in leagues with the scoring tilted heavily towards TDs.

 
I like the player, but I don't like your 1-2 options. Riskier RBs at the 18 spot. OTOH, MJD/Rice and the late 2nd (in 10 teamer) WR appeals. I don't even dislike the late 2nd RBs, but they're definitely riskier.

 
crazy.

Schaub goes down and you're left holding the #3 pick bag. MJD will likely continute racking up TD's....AJ hasn't had 10 in a season - ever.

 
'dre has been pretty solid even pre-Schaub. I agree that him going down would hurt 'dre but I don't think he would be a zero.

 
Not a good idea. Andre Johnson is becoming overrated at this point... he's a great WR (and I took him in the 1st last year.. #10) but he isn't that much better than the rest of the pack... I wouldn't take him before pick 7

 
Am I crazy to consider Andre at #3? I am in a 10 team snake draft. I like ChJo and AP, who will likely go 1-2, but I am in the minority on MJD. I do like RRice, and that would be logical pick there, but I think 'dre is really the only solid no doubt stud ar WR.Tell me I am crazy.
Non PPR -- you are crazy.
 
I'm glad someone else started this thread because I have the #3 pick in a 12 team draft later this month...

I know for a fact already that the 2 guys ahead of me are taking AP and CJ. I'm seriously considering AJ at #3. My league, however, is PPR and favorable to QB scoring. We only start 2 RB's and 2 WR's with no flex....so my thinking is it won't be that hard to find 2 RB's a little later on. My other thought is that since several QB's will go in the first 2 rounds this year there is an even better chance a good RB falls back to me in the 2nd round...maybe even with my early 3rd round pick.

I like MJD and Rice, and maybe I'm overthinking it a bit but both scare me for different reasons. MJD got ALOT of touches last year and I fully subscribe to the 370 theory. If it wasn't for McGahee Rice would be a slam dunk here...but the vulturing of TD's limits his upside IMO.

Would love to hear more discussion on this since I'm legitimately torn here.

 
Nothing is crazy I took Moss #2 overall in a league last year because that is who I wanted. I didn't care about ADP or what anyone would think. If that is the pick you got and you got a player you want then just take him. I finished that league 1st in scoring for the season even passing on the RB's at the #2 slot. I ended up losing in the playoffs but that is luck of the draw there.

Moral of the story if you want someone take him.

 
I'm glad someone else started this thread because I have the #3 pick in a 12 team draft later this month...I know for a fact already that the 2 guys ahead of me are taking AP and CJ. I'm seriously considering AJ at #3. My league, however, is PPR and favorable to QB scoring. We only start 2 RB's and 2 WR's with no flex....so my thinking is it won't be that hard to find 2 RB's a little later on. My other thought is that since several QB's will go in the first 2 rounds this year there is an even better chance a good RB falls back to me in the 2nd round...maybe even with my early 3rd round pick.I like MJD and Rice, and maybe I'm overthinking it a bit but both scare me for different reasons. MJD got ALOT of touches last year and I fully subscribe to the 370 theory. If it wasn't for McGahee Rice would be a slam dunk here...but the vulturing of TD's limits his upside IMO.Would love to hear more discussion on this since I'm legitimately torn here.
You only start 2 RBs and 2 WRs and no flex ? What a waste of a lot of talented players in that league. Most leagues start 2 RB, 3 WR plus 1 flex.I even play in 1 league where we start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 2 flex for a total of 8 players and this is in a 12 team league.
 
I'm glad someone else started this thread because I have the #3 pick in a 12 team draft later this month...I know for a fact already that the 2 guys ahead of me are taking AP and CJ. I'm seriously considering AJ at #3. My league, however, is PPR and favorable to QB scoring. We only start 2 RB's and 2 WR's with no flex....so my thinking is it won't be that hard to find 2 RB's a little later on. My other thought is that since several QB's will go in the first 2 rounds this year there is an even better chance a good RB falls back to me in the 2nd round...maybe even with my early 3rd round pick.I like MJD and Rice, and maybe I'm overthinking it a bit but both scare me for different reasons. MJD got ALOT of touches last year and I fully subscribe to the 370 theory. If it wasn't for McGahee Rice would be a slam dunk here...but the vulturing of TD's limits his upside IMO.Would love to hear more discussion on this since I'm legitimately torn here.
You only start 2 RBs and 2 WRs and no flex ? What a waste of a lot of talented players in that league. Most leagues start 2 RB, 3 WR plus 1 flex.I even play in 1 league where we start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 2 flex for a total of 8 players and this is in a 12 team league.
Yes but I didn't want to go into the complexities of the scoring and bore you guys....but in a nutshell the benches are relatively small, you can only carry 4 RB's and 4 WR's TOTAL plus 1 RB or WR so you could carry 5 RB's and 4 WR's or vice versa. In addition, each team is only allowed 5 add/drops for the ENTIRE year.....so yes there are guys on waivers that normally wouldn't be but everyone in the league is forced to draft well with the system.So with all that said and taking into account the favorable QB scoring...what would you do at 3? I'm firmly on the Cutler/Kolb bandwagon and refuse to take a QB early so that's not an option. I'd rather let the others overpay in the first 3 rounds for a QB and load up on my position players.
 
trade down
Normally I would...but I know for a fact the guy at #6 would take AJ and other than one of the RB's that's my ideal target in the first round. Not sure the guys at #4 and #5 would trade up to 3...and then again there's not even much difference in those spots.
 
In non-PPR this really is pretty silly. MJD will have very close to 1800 total yards and has had double digit TDs for the last 2 years. Andre can't touch that.

If you want to grab Andre thats fine, but it is not a winning decision.

 
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Here's my thing. I don't see why people get their panties in a wad when Round 1 doesn't closely follow the "consensus" ADP list. In my mind there is no wrong choice unless the player you took would have still been available for your choice in the next round. If you're drafting in the 3rd slot and you REALLY like Aaron Rodgers, Michael Turner or Randy Moss, there is about zero chance those guys will be there for you in Round 2. So, either take one of them at #3 or trade down and hope everyone else follows the ADP list like good little drafting robots. Most seasons are won by picking gems later in the draft anyway, not by the guy you took in Round 1.

Real world example: How many people last year (2009) drafted Matt Forte at 1.04 because that's where the Big List had him? And there's Chris Johnson sitting back there at 1.07 on the ADP list. If you had suggested CJ at 1.04 people would have laughed at you as if it was a HUGE reach, probably citing how LenDale will snipe all of his TDs away. The point is, go with your gut. Anyone that has an ADP in the first round is fair game in my opinion.

 
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Here's my thing. I don't see why people get their panties in a wad when Round 1 doesn't closely follow the "consensus" ADP list. In my mind there is no wrong choice unless the player you took would have still been available for your choice in the next round. If you're drafting in the 3rd slot and you REALLY like Aaron Rodgers, Michael Turner or Randy Moss, there is about zero chance those guys will be there for you in Round 2. So, either take one of them at #3 or trade down and hope everyone else follows the ADP list like good little drafting robots. Most seasons are won by picking gems later in the draft anyway, not by the guy you took in Round 1.

Real world example: How many people last year (2009) drafted Matt Forte at 1.04 because that's where the Big List had him? And there's Chris Johnson sitting back there at 1.07 on the ADP list. If you had suggested CJ at 1.04 people would have laughed at you as if it was a HUGE reach, probably citing how LenDale will snipe all of his TDs away. The point is, go with your gut. Anyone who's ADP is in the first round is fair game in my opinion.
^^

^

Great Posting!

 
The $350 draft I just drafted in went like this for 1st 3 picks

C-Johnson

A-Peterson

A-Johnson

Enuf said, do what you want. If your gut says take AJ you take him and be done with it.

 
I'm glad someone else started this thread because I have the #3 pick in a 12 team draft later this month...I know for a fact already that the 2 guys ahead of me are taking AP and CJ. I'm seriously considering AJ at #3. My league, however, is PPR and favorable to QB scoring. We only start 2 RB's and 2 WR's with no flex....so my thinking is it won't be that hard to find 2 RB's a little later on. My other thought is that since several QB's will go in the first 2 rounds this year there is an even better chance a good RB falls back to me in the 2nd round...maybe even with my early 3rd round pick.I like MJD and Rice, and maybe I'm overthinking it a bit but both scare me for different reasons. MJD got ALOT of touches last year and I fully subscribe to the 370 theory. If it wasn't for McGahee Rice would be a slam dunk here...but the vulturing of TD's limits his upside IMO.Would love to hear more discussion on this since I'm legitimately torn here.
Can it work? Yes. For example, last year you could have gone Fitzgerald or Andre or some other non-conventional route in the top 3, picked Ray Rice and Cedric Benson in the middle rounds, and everything would have worked out great. That said, it is much riskier to go this route because you then MUST hit home runs with your rb picks later. The smart thing to do is go with MJD or RR and go with the best wr avail (assuming a worthy wr is still on the board) in rd 2. The reason you do this is because the dropoff from MJD/RR to whatever rb you would take in rd 2 is likely to be greater than the dropoff from Andre to whatever receiver you would take in rd 2. The thing about fantasy football, though, is that there are no guarantees. Going Andre at #3 reduces your chances of having a good draft and, therefore, a good team. However, if you are really confident in your ability to draft well in the middle/late rounds and do well in your league's free agency/waiver period, take the risk.
 
The smart thing to do is go with MJD or RR and go with the best wr avail (assuming a worthy wr is still on the board) in rd 2. The reason you do this is because the dropoff from MJD/RR to whatever rb you would take in rd 2 is likely to be greater than the dropoff from Andre to whatever receiver you would take in rd 2.
See, this is the line of thinking I am not sure I agree with. I think the drop off from the top tier WRs is equal to or greater the drop off from the top teir RBs. Also, like others on this thread I have questions about MJDs durability after his heavy workload last year. Plus I hate his offense. Those concerns aren't there for Rice, but he could have his TDs vultured again and I expect his pass catches to come down somewhat. I think 'dre is almost a sure thing in that Houston offense, which I think will be even better this year. To me outside of AP & Rodgers, AJ is the player with the least amout of question marks... if he is healthy he will get his.
 
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The smart thing to do is go with MJD or RR and go with the best wr avail (assuming a worthy wr is still on the board) in rd 2. The reason you do this is because the dropoff from MJD/RR to whatever rb you would take in rd 2 is likely to be greater than the dropoff from Andre to whatever receiver you would take in rd 2.
See, this is the line of thinking I am not sure I agree with. I think the drop off from the top tier WRs is equal to or greater the drop off from the top teir RBs. Also, like others on this thread I have questions about MJDs durability after his heavy workload last year. Plus I hate his offense. Those concerns aren't there for Rice, but he could have his TDs vultured again and I expect his pass catches to come down somewhat. I think 'dre is almost a sure thing in that Houston offense, which I think will be even better this year. To me outside of AP & Rodgers, AJ is the player with the least amout of question marks... if he is healthy he will get his.
Glad you brought this up, does anyone else think that CJ's 400+ touches last year and lack of much else on offense will lead to a downturn in his #'s this year? I've been on the ADP bandwagon for #1 pick this year, big time. "Robots" are a good summary of most drafters these days who pick on the previous year's accomplishments, rather than look at history and potential offensive decline.
 
I don't see anything that wrong with it except the overall point differential you're giving up. The WRs that will likely be there when you pick in round 2 are more comparable to AJ than the RBs are going to be to MJD or Rice, so you're losing at VBD. Plus the dude just signed a max extension and I would be surprised if he equals last year's output.

But ultimately take the player you really feel will outperform others at his position. There's no upside at that pick anyway.

 

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