Crazy to trade Julio Jones? Hear me out... (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

So I'm a huge Julio fan, thought he was a steal with the 16th overall pick. Although I've not been a fan of Matt Ryan, Julio looks healthy so no problem there. So with the dearth of stud WR#1 types why would I even be thinking about trading Julio? Josh Norman - that's why. Atlanta plays Carolina weeks 14 and 16. First playoff game and the SuperBowl. Carolina has had success recently against Julio - he went for 59/0 and 58/0 last year. Their LB's will make it tough on crossing routes. But Norman is the X factor.

I read this:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article41477856.html

So when Norman shadowed players they went WAY below averages. DeAndre Hopkins went for 53/0 and Mike Evans went for 32/0. When he's covering a side of the fields teams aren't even throwing to that half of the field. Saw him involved in one play the other night, and he tipped away a pass in the end zone.

Now, anything can happen. Norman can get hurt, as could Kuechly with another concussion. If so, Julio could go off, and even great shutdown corners get beat at times. And Ryan will force throws to Julio covered or not. But it doesn't look favorable.

I'm going to ride him with tremendous upcoming matchups vs Tennessee, Tampa Bay and SF coming up before the bye. I'd have to trade him then. He then plays Indy, Minn, TB to finish out the regular season. Sandwiched between Car in the playoffs is Jacksonville, so it's not all brutal.

Overthinking this? I think not. It's like having a WR face Sherman twice in the playoffs. And if he blows up, you can get huge value. What say my fellow FBG's?

 

[iamkoza]

Have the same concerns... But who are realistic trade targets with favorable matchups?

 

[nastynate]

I'd do it, but it would have to be for a top RB. Who's gonna do that around week 10-11?

 

[Shrugs]

I've considered this but haven't been able to find the right trade target yet. Really, the only players I'd trade him for are Bell and Freeman. Maybe Gronk and Gurley too, but I already have Gurley. There's also the thought that Freeman is making it so they don't have to throw as much.

 

[Gandalf]

I've considered this but haven't been able to find the right trade target yet. Really, the only players I'd trade him for are Bell and Freeman. Maybe Gronk and Gurley too, but I already have Gurley. There's also the thought that Freeman is making it so they don't have to throw as much.

Go get Gronk!

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Yeah those end of season games vs Carolina do not look promising.

 

[Trenchcoat]

This seems like a case of over-thinking things. Julio is playing at a high level, and Shanahan will move him everywhere along formation to get favorable matchups. And it's hard to get proper value for a guy who can win you the championship in a redraft.

There's been enough changes in coaches and personnel to make last year's results just something to note. Not to mention this will likely be two winning teams facing each other.

 

[Interseptopus]

It's threads like this that set this place above others. I think this is a great conversation to have. If I had Julio I would likely be shopping him.

I know when I'm drafting, if I'm deciding between two players I pick the one with the better overall SOS, and definitely the better playoff SOS. I often avoid spending high draft picks on players who have a tough playoff SOS. Why draft a stud who will have a tougher time giving you stud numbers when you need them the most?

We do this for defenses all the time it seems, why not positional players?

I would certainly try to grab a TE like Gronk or a solid RB. WRs have come out of nowhere to help stomach the loss of Julio in a trade. I'd rather have gronk and start Diggs or Benjamin or Bryant or another WR who came out of nowhere to be a weekly starter at WR than stick with Julio and whoever I had at TE.

Just makes sense to me.

-DR

 

[texansfan80]

Antonio Brown with Big Ben = championship. Don't think just do it.

 

[Interseptopus]

Antonio Brown with Big Ben = championship. Don't think just do it.

Yep. This is the last year I was able to keep him and he's won me the last two years. The guy is fantasy gold. Julios value is greater than Browns right now. I'd do that trade in a second if I had Julio

 

[jurb26]

I love Norman, have been praising him as a top CB for about a year. Still, he can't cover Julio. Not only that but Atl schemes Julio so well he won't get to cover him all the time.

Sell Julio if you want. Hopefully you get a kings ransom. I just don't think a Norman matchup is a reason to do so.

BTW, that pass he tipped away in the end zone he was beat cleanly on by Ertz. It was a terrible throw that bailed him out. Ertz had at least a step and Bradford left the ball short and flat. Threw it with no arch, like he was sticking a curl. It was a fad pass that should have had touch, arch and no matter what missed long, not short. He gave Norman a lifeboat on a play he was flat beat. Granted, the play on the ball was nice. Still that should be 6 9 times out of 10.

Sorry for all the edits. Keep thinking of things, though.

Another point I'd add is Norman has been wining by playing with his eyes in zone and often times gambling on plays by trusting his instincts. He's been beaten on a decent amount of plays but largely recovers with great athletism. He won't recover if he's beat by Julio because Julio is a different bread of athlete. I think there is some big play potential in this matchup.

 

[msudaisy26]

I love Norman, have been praising him as a top CB for about a year. Still, he can't cover Julio. Not only that but Atl schemes Julio so well he won't get to cover him all the time.

Sell Julio if you want. Hopefully you get a kings ransom. I just don't think a Norman matchup is a reason to do so.

I agree with this, trade Julio if you like,but not for this reason. I would target the A. Brown owner and see if they are nervous about about one of their backs. Lewis, missed a week and had a bad week the week before. Ivory's injury history, Woodhead in PPR, I like Hill as a buy low.

 

[shadyridr]

It's threads like this that set this place above others. I think this is a great conversation to have. If I had Julio I would likely be shopping him.

I know when I'm drafting, if I'm deciding between two players I pick the one with the better overall SOS, and definitely the better playoff SOS. I often avoid spending high draft picks on players who have a tough playoff SOS. Why draft a stud who will have a tougher time giving you stud numbers when you need them the most?

We do this for defenses all the time it seems, why not positional players?

I would certainly try to grab a TE like Gronk or a solid RB. WRs have come out of nowhere to help stomach the loss of Julio in a trade. I'd rather have gronk and start Diggs or Benjamin or Bryant or another WR who came out of nowhere to be a weekly starter at WR than stick with Julio and whoever I had at TE.

Just makes sense to me.

-DR

now you got me thinking. I have diggs at wr4 and kelce as my te. I think i agree with you. That being said, what does the gronk owner get out of this? Its basically a wash for them.

 

[mquinnjr]

Lamar Miller in the small sample with the new coaching regime would be a target for someone like Julio if you want/need RB help. Should be an insta-accept from the Miller owner unless the guy is very high on him, maybe even get a throw-in piece on top it.

 

[shadyridr]

Julio for miller is way overthinking things

 

[Shrugs]

Julio for miller is way overthinking things

Uh, yeah. You better be getting a good second piece, not just a throw-in.

 

[mikel0254]

Julio for miller is way overthinking things

Uh, yeah. You better be getting a good second piece, not just a throw-in.

Yes. Unless the Miller owner is unrealistic about Miller's future value (tends to happen after a blow up game), you should be able to get a good WR thrown in. That said, good RB's seem to be harder to come by this year...some owners put a very large premium on 3 down backs (in my league at least)

 

[jurb26]

Unless it's dynasty, Miller for Julio isn't that bad a deal. Hell, it's probably fair if we're talking standard league. PPR, not so much. Miller is a top 10, maybe better, the rest of the year now that the doofus coaches are out of the way.

I'd want more but it's not as bad as you guys are making it.

 

[dirtyjay]

Why are people discussing trading the #1 or #2 WR across most leagues isnt that counter productive to the concept of what fantasy football is, to score points?

#2 in targets, #2 in receptions, #2 in yards, tied for the league leader of WRs with 6 Tds total (including fumble TD).

This while having a sore hammy for a few weeks. But some want to move him because of Matchups? You gonna move LeVeon Bell because of Matchups? Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady too?

Move him if you need to fix your team, dont move him if its just to move him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Julio for miller is way overthinking things

Yes. You can't ignore years of mediocrity based on a two game hot streak. Can it continue for Miller? Sure, maybe it's even more likely than not that it will but paying the cost of a Julio Jones to find out is not playing this game the correct way.

 

[iamkoza]

Unless it's dynasty, Miller for Julio isn't that bad a deal. Hell, it's probably fair if we're talking standard league. PPR, not so much. Miller is a top 10, maybe better, the rest of the year now that the doofus coaches are out of the way.

I'd want more but it's not as bad as you guys are making it.

you may end up being right, but i think you should still be able to get more than just miller if you are trading julio right now

 

[I Am the Stig]

So I'm a huge Julio fan, thought he was a steal with the 16th overall pick. Although I've not been a fan of Matt Ryan, Julio looks healthy so no problem there. So with the dearth of stud WR#1 types why would I even be thinking about trading Julio? Josh Norman - that's why. Atlanta plays Carolina weeks 14 and 16. First playoff game and the SuperBowl. Carolina has had success recently against Julio - he went for 59/0 and 58/0 last year. Their LB's will make it tough on crossing routes. But Norman is the X factor.

I read this:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article41477856.html

So when Norman shadowed players they went WAY below averages. DeAndre Hopkins went for 53/0 and Mike Evans went for 32/0. When he's covering a side of the fields teams aren't even throwing to that half of the field. Saw him involved in one play the other night, and he tipped away a pass in the end zone.

Now, anything can happen. Norman can get hurt, as could Kuechly with another concussion. If so, Julio could go off, and even great shutdown corners get beat at times. And Ryan will force throws to Julio covered or not. But it doesn't look favorable.

I'm going to ride him with tremendous upcoming matchups vs Tennessee, Tampa Bay and SF coming up before the bye. I'd have to trade him then. He then plays Indy, Minn, TB to finish out the regular season. Sandwiched between Car in the playoffs is Jacksonville, so it's not all brutal.

Overthinking this? I think not. It's like having a WR face Sherman twice in the playoffs. And if he blows up, you can get huge value. What say my fellow FBG's?

I didn't even read this beyond the title.

No player is above being traded. It is that simple.

 

[solorca]

So when Norman shadowed players they went WAY below averages. DeAndre Hopkins went for 53/0 and Mike Evans went for 32/0. When he's covering a side of the fields teams aren't even throwing to that half of the field. Saw him involved in one play the other night, and he tipped away a pass in the end zone.

Norman didn't shadown Evans. He shadowed Vincent Jackson on about 90% of the plays ( all but one of his catches in that game came when Norman wasn't on him, mostly the final drive that Norman sat out).

Norman has been talking about Julio all season though, making comments multiple times when people say that Julio is "uncoverable", since he has shut him down more than once.

 

[solorca]

I love Norman, have been praising him as a top CB for about a year. Still, he can't cover Julio. Not only that but Atl schemes Julio so well he won't get to cover him all the time.

Another point I'd add is Norman has been wining by playing with his eyes in zone and often times gambling on plays by trusting his instincts. He's been beaten on a decent amount of plays but largely recovers with great athletism. He won't recover if he's beat by Julio because Julio is a different bread of athlete. I think there is some big play potential in this matchup.

Norman can cover Julio. He did it twice last year. That isn't to say that Julio can't get his. It doesn't matter how good you are at CB if the QB is throwing the ball to the WR 15 or more times or at the line of scrimmage. I don't see Julio beating him for big plays, but something like 7/80 and maybe a touchdown is certainly possible.

Also, Norman hasn't really been beaten on many plays this year. So far, he's had 17 passes for 127 yards against him. Most of them are quick underneath things that he quickly sniffed out. I believe the longest play against him this year was 15-16 yard pass on a third and 20 (don't quote me on that).

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

i was struggling in a league earlier this year, moved Julio, for Forte, E.Sanders and Eifert.

My team needed more depth/balance. Worked out for me so far

not that anyone cares

 

[jurb26]

I love Norman, have been praising him as a top CB for about a year. Still, he can't cover Julio. Not only that but Atl schemes Julio so well he won't get to cover him all the time.

Another point I'd add is Norman has been wining by playing with his eyes in zone and often times gambling on plays by trusting his instincts. He's been beaten on a decent amount of plays but largely recovers with great athletism. He won't recover if he's beat by Julio because Julio is a different bread of athlete. I think there is some big play potential in this matchup.

Norman can cover Julio. He did it twice last year. That isn't to say that Julio can't get his. It doesn't matter how good you are at CB if the QB is throwing the ball to the WR 15 or more times or at the line of scrimmage. I don't see Julio beating him for big plays, but something like 7/80 and maybe a touchdown is certainly possible.

Also, Norman hasn't really been beaten on many plays this year. So far, he's had 17 passes for 127 yards against him. Most of them are quick underneath things that he quickly sniffed out. I believe the longest play against him this year was 15-16 yard pass on a third and 20 (don't quote me on that).

Julio is playing better this year than last year. Also, I think he battled injuries in those games. I'm not saying teams have completed big plays on him yet. I'm simply pointing out that there are times he has certainly been beat, but got help from the QB or just had the ability to recover. That's not a bad thing. It's a critical element of being a top CB, which he is. Nonetheless, he was beat by Cooks a few weeks ago, but recovered. I don't think he makes that play against Julio. He was beat by Ertz but Bradford made a terrible pass. It's all part of the game. Guys miss throws. Let's not pretend that there haven't been potential big plays to be had, though. There have been. Like I said, if he allows Julio to get behind him like some other guys have this year. I don't think he recovers because Julio is just better than everyone else. He's a different bread of athlete. Of course Ryan could muff the pass.

In the end I don't know it matters a lot. Julio will get his if he's healthy. Atl will move him around and try to avoid Newman. It's just smart. Maybe the big play doesn't come against Newman. It doesn't really matter who it comes against. Julio is capable of making big plays against anyone.

 

[Steed]

Have the same concerns... But who are realistic trade targets with favorable matchups?

Dez and another good piece. Super risky of course

 

[iamkoza]

Have the same concerns... But who are realistic trade targets with favorable matchups?

Dez and another good piece. Super risky of course

Dez has worse playoff matchups than Julio

 

[dirtyjay]

The reason good CBs shut down good WRs is not because of the WR but because the game plan goes away from the CB or the QB does not throw their way.

If Ryan throws to Julio like they should I will pick Julio over Norman, Revis and Sherman. Corners can be exposed if teams are not scared Offense always has the advantage.

Are people moving Bell before the playoffs since he has Denver in Week 15?

 

[iamkoza]

The reason good CBs shut down good WRs is not because of the WR but because the game plan goes away from the CB or the QB does not throw their way.

If Ryan throws to Julio like they should I will pick Julio over Norman, Revis and Sherman. Corners can be exposed if teams are not scared Offense always has the advantage.

Are people moving Bell before the playoffs since he has Denver in Week 15?

i see twice you've used leveon bell as a reference point... a better comp would be to use a WR... bell is going to get 15 carries and 4+ receptions making him a near lock for 15 points in ppr leagues no matter who the opponent

 

[FUBAR]

Antonio Brown with Big Ben = championship. Don't think just do it.

Yep. This is the last year I was able to keep him and he's won me the last two years. The guy is fantasy gold. Julios value is greater than Browns right now. I'd do that trade in a second if I had Julio

As a Brown owner, I'd probably trade him for Julio in dynasty. Not redraft.

Have the same concerns... But who are realistic trade targets with favorable matchups?

Dez and another good piece. Super risky of course

Dez has worse playoff matchups than Julio

maybe. Packers, Jets, Bills? Close.

 

[dirtyjay]

The reason good CBs shut down good WRs is not because of the WR but because the game plan goes away from the CB or the QB does not throw their way.

If Ryan throws to Julio like they should I will pick Julio over Norman, Revis and Sherman. Corners can be exposed if teams are not scared Offense always has the advantage.

Are people moving Bell before the playoffs since he has Denver in Week 15?

i see twice you've used leveon bell as a reference point... a better comp would be to use a WR... bell is going to get 15 carries and 4+ receptions making him a near lock for 15 points in ppr leagues no matter who the opponent

Antonio Brown plays Cincy and Denver in the playoffs, you trading him? Cincy is not that great against the pass, but tough team before Denver and Talib. Julio and Brown both play studly defenses in route to week 16. No one should use Julios week 16 matchup against him as it is taboo to think you are just going to go to the super bowl.

fwiw i own neither julio or brown but have interest in trying to get either.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I think this is a very fair question to ask but at least wait until after this week.

Every Bucs cornerback who's played a 2015 snap has received a negative PFF pass-coverage grade. In last year's two meetings with Lovie Smith's defense, Julio posted receiving lines of 9-161-2 and 8-119

 

[Shlon]

I love Norman, have been praising him as a top CB for about a year. Still, he can't cover Julio. Not only that but Atl schemes Julio so well he won't get to cover him all the time.

Another point I'd add is Norman has been wining by playing with his eyes in zone and often times gambling on plays by trusting his instincts. He's been beaten on a decent amount of plays but largely recovers with great athletism. He won't recover if he's beat by Julio because Julio is a different bread of athlete. I think there is some big play potential in this matchup.

Norman can cover Julio. He did it twice last year. That isn't to say that Julio can't get his. It doesn't matter how good you are at CB if the QB is throwing the ball to the WR 15 or more times or at the line of scrimmage. I don't see Julio beating him for big plays, but something like 7/80 and maybe a touchdown is certainly possible.

Also, Norman hasn't really been beaten on many plays this year. So far, he's had 17 passes for 127 yards against him. Most of them are quick underneath things that he quickly sniffed out. I believe the longest play against him this year was 15-16 yard pass on a third and 20 (don't quote me on that).

I wouldn't say Norman shut down Julio in both games last year. It was more due to Atlanta's offensive line giving Ryan no protection (he was sacked 8 times in both games). Ryan had no time to even make a read before a defensive lineman was in his face. If that happens again Julio won't be producing any #'s but if Atlanta's o-line can actually protect Ryan this time around, I will take Julio against anyone.

 

[bigbrownbag]

All depends a what you can get for him.

But what if you get a bye. Week 14 doesn't matter. Week 15 he goes off and gets you to the big game where anything can happen.

 

[jon_mx]

Put him on the waiver wire and see who is available for pickup with s better matchup.

 

[pb187]

I trade Julio for aP in a non-ppr, redraft leGue

 

[SanDawg]

Depends on the return like many have said. I did it in a 4 man keeper. Return was Larry Fitz, Martavious Bryant, his 1st and 2nd next year. I would be a fool not to pull that trigger. You will always find someone who over values a player. Capitalize if you can

 

[monk]

Why are people discussing trading the #1 or #2 WR across most leagues isnt that counter productive to the concept of what fantasy football is, to score points?

#2 in targets, #2 in receptions, #2 in yards, tied for the league leader of WRs with 6 Tds total (including fumble TD).

This while having a sore hammy for a few weeks. But some want to move him because of Matchups? You gonna move LeVeon Bell because of Matchups? Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady too?

Move him if you need to fix your team, dont move him if its just to move him.

Julio is highly overrated right now so moving him would definitely get you above value return

Most of his production came in the 1st 3 weeks of the season and he has been very average since.

Julio has been a low WR2 high WR3 over the past 4 weeks ... around WR25 in standard leagues if you take away the fluky Fumble Recovery

 

[jurb26]

Why are people discussing trading the #1 or #2 WR across most leagues isnt that counter productive to the concept of what fantasy football is, to score points?

#2 in targets, #2 in receptions, #2 in yards, tied for the league leader of WRs with 6 Tds total (including fumble TD).

This while having a sore hammy for a few weeks. But some want to move him because of Matchups? You gonna move LeVeon Bell because of Matchups? Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady too?

Move him if you need to fix your team, dont move him if its just to move him.

Julio is highly overrated right now so moving him would definitely get you above value return Most of his production came in the 1st 3 weeks of the season and he has been very average since.

Julio has been a low WR2 high WR3 over the past 4 weeks ... around WR25 in standard leagues if you take away the fluky Fumble Recovery

So you want to take away 3 of his games, about half, and a TD... Just to be able to say he's WR25?He's WR20 over the span you reference in Standard.

If we play the let's take things away game... He's WR10 when we take away his only stinker of the year in week 4 and goes week 5 and on.

 

[monk]

Why are people discussing trading the #1 or #2 WR across most leagues isnt that counter productive to the concept of what fantasy football is, to score points?

#2 in targets, #2 in receptions, #2 in yards, tied for the league leader of WRs with 6 Tds total (including fumble TD).

This while having a sore hammy for a few weeks. But some want to move him because of Matchups? You gonna move LeVeon Bell because of Matchups? Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady too?

Move him if you need to fix your team, dont move him if its just to move him.

Julio is highly overrated right now so moving him would definitely get you above value return Most of his production came in the 1st 3 weeks of the season and he has been very average since.

Julio has been a low WR2 high WR3 over the past 4 weeks ... around WR25 in standard leagues if you take away the fluky Fumble Recovery

So you want to take away 3 of his games, about half, and a TD... Just to be able to say he's WR25?He's WR20 over the span you reference in Standard.

If we play the let's take things away game... He's WR10 when we take away his only stinker of the year in week 4 and goes week 5 and on.

No need to get defensive ...I'm just stating the facts.

1st 3 Games

He was the #1 WR in the league

Last 4 games

He has been around WR 18 (avg WR2) with the fluky fumble (which has nothing to do with his receiving)

He has been around WR 24 (low WR2 high WR3) without the fluky fumble (which some leagues don't even count)

 

[jvdesigns2002]

It's not crazy to sell any player for the right price. Don't over think things--Julio is easily a top 5-10 asset in both re-draft and dynasty leagues. If you are getting top 5-10 value in return--it's not crazy. However---I would not pro-actively "reduce" his price just because he might have a tough matchup 6-8 weeks from now. Many things can happen---Norman could get hurt--Julio could get healthy enough to go on one of his amazing rolls..etc. With that being said--if his future matchups do concern you.just make sure you trade him for a top 10 asset. I would target teams that are in the middle of the pack--or at the bottom of the pack--where they need a push to make the fantasy playoffs as potential trade partners--as most saavy owners with teams that look to make the playoffs will probably be aware of Julios playoff schedule.

 

[Sabertooth]

Have the same concerns... But who are realistic trade targets with favorable matchups?

Mike Evans or Allen Robinson

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Have the same concerns... But who are realistic trade targets with favorable matchups?

Mike Evans or Allen Robinson

Julio for Allen Robinson? I don't care if Norman, Revis and Neion Deion were defending Julio--no way in heck I make that trade. If you want to trade Julio for an under-appreciated PPR machine---Edelman is the guy. Beyond that--it would have to be in the AJ Green, Antonio Brown range of guys.

 

[Shrugs]

Edelman has an even worse matchup W16

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Trade Julio? At best you are making a lateral move. At BEST. Like poster above said, only for Green or Brown or maybe Dez if you think he will be 100%. And that's still a lateral move, so I'm asking for a pick or a throw-in as well.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Edelman has an even worse matchup W16

My point in bringing Edelman up is that he is an elite player that might be worthy of trading Julio for. I brought his name up in place of somebody posting that Allen Robinson would make for good Julio deal. The point is that Allen Robinson is an above average talent with a slightly favorable matchup. If you are going to trade a bonafide elite stud--you sure as heck better be getting an elite value back. I'd much rather roll the dice starting a stud (a guy who has Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, or Big Ben throwing him the ball) with a tough matchup--versus having a guy like Allen Robinson (a dude who has Blake Bortles throwing him the ball) be who I depend on in the fantasy playoffs/finals. The point is--find elite guys with better matchups--and target them. Allen Robinson falls far short of that line. Edelman is an elite guy who has only 1 bad matchup in the fantasy playoffs--versus 2 for Julio--so if you are on the fence on Julio--he might have a slightly favorable fantasy schedule.

 

[Raback]

I dealt him for Gronk in one league (.5 ppr). Had more to do with team needs than anything else really. I had a big hole at TE with a deep WR core. He needed a WR bad and had Jordan Reed stuck on the bench behind Gronk. The schedule and Julio's hammy were minor factors for me though. We'll see if I made a big mistake.

 

[Deuceman]

Tried trading him for Amari in dynasty and got rejected.

 

[Penguin]

Prior to last weeks games I negotiated two deals, one that included sending Julio in a redraft 12 team PPR start 2RB, 3WR, TE, Flex.

I was week at RB with Woodhead and a bunch of junk like CJ Anderson & Spiller.

I sent Greg Olsen for L.Miller in deal one.

I sent Julio for Gronk & A.Robinson in deal two.

So I basically added Miller at RB, upgraded from Olsen to Gronk at TE and downgraded from Julio to A.Robinson at TE. I feel really good about it.