Cutler watch (1 Viewer)

[RudeDog]

This was tweeted yesterday

BearReport - Cutler is hot and cold Tuesday. He threw a TD to Hester in red zone but was picked by both Urlacher and Bowman. Aromashodu has two TDs.

Jay is probably not used to practicing against a good defense. We have to remember the crap that was the Denver D the last couple years. Hopefully he will adjust and this will make him even better.As camp goes on we should see real improvement by Jay as he now has a more aggressive D to practice with. Of course the Bears secondary was their weakest area last year... even so, it has to be better than Denver

 

[FUBAR]

Before I answer if he'll outperform his trade value, what is his trade value?

IMO, Cutler is in the 8-12 range right now.

 

[shredhead]

Before I answer if he'll outperform his trade value, what is his trade value?IMO, Cutler is in the 8-12 range right now.

Perhaps a 1st, a 3rd, and Orton. In other words, I think the OP meant NFL value, not fantasy.No he won't outproduce what Chicago gave up for him, but he may outproduce what Denver got for him, because Denver gave one of the picks to Seattle.

 

[David Yudkin]

Not sure you can evaluate a trade after only one season. This one could take years to properly analyze.

 

[FUBAR]

Before I answer if he'll outperform his trade value, what is his trade value?IMO, Cutler is in the 8-12 range right now.

Perhaps a 1st, a 3rd, and Orton. In other words, I think the OP meant NFL value, not fantasy.No he won't outproduce what Chicago gave up for him, but he may outproduce what Denver got for him, because Denver gave one of the picks to Seattle.

ok, thought he was talking FF.I'm not sure about outproducing that trade, but if Chicago can win 10 or more games this year Bears fans will be happy and I think that will happen.

 

[fightingillini]

Not sure you can evaluate a trade after only one season. This one could take years to properly analyze.

Also consider the Bears track record with 1st round picks......it's not very good.

 

[travdogg]

I think he could be sneaky this year. Its very surprising that he's falling out of some top-10's.

While he doesn't have a stud WR, he could very well have a stud TE and a stud RB that catches the ball out of the backfield. Hester may not be a great WR, but he could be a great deep threat. That's 3 pretty solid weapons right there, I'd argue that's just as good as what some other highly drafted QB's such as Romo, McNabb, Rivers and Palmer have.

I'm still not convinced that he didn't make Marshall and Royal etc. look far better than they really are.

NFL wise, I be pretty surprised if the Bears didn't make the playoffs this season. Personally, I think they will win the NFC North and I think if they'd had Cutler, they'd have done that last year too.

 

[SSOG]

Before I answer if he'll outperform his trade value, what is his trade value?IMO, Cutler is in the 8-12 range right now.

Perhaps a 1st, a 3rd, and Orton. In other words, I think the OP meant NFL value, not fantasy.No he won't outproduce what Chicago gave up for him, but he may outproduce what Denver got for him, because Denver gave one of the picks to Seattle.

Actually, Denver got two firsts, and they didn't trade either of them to Seattle- the pick they traded to Seattle was THEIR OWN first rounder next year (which they would have had whether they'd made the trade or not).IMO, Cutler's going to dramatically outperform his trade value. When Eli Manning becomes the highest-paid player in the league (despite being arguably the 10th-best QB in the league) you realize just how important it is to have a good QB, and just how hard it is to find one.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I'm still not convinced that he didn't make Marshall and Royal etc. look far better than they really are.

So you are saying those two could be average, and a little below average. "far better"...Please.You sound biased.

 

[travdogg]

I'm still not convinced that he didn't make Marshall and Royal etc. look far better than they really are.

So you are saying those two could be average, and a little below average. "far better"...Please.You sound biased.

I wouldn't go that far.More like Marshall goes from great to good.

Royal goes from good to average.

On the flip side:

Olsen goes from good to great.

Hester goes from average to good.

 

[two_dollars]

My prediction is that Earl Bennet will lead the Bears in receptions.

Bennet - 68

Olsen - 65

Hester - 62

Forte - 53

Clark - 25

Davis - 25

Other RB's and WR's - 40

540 attempts, 338 completions. 62.5% completion

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I'm still not convinced that he didn't make Marshall and Royal etc. look far better than they really are.

So you are saying those two could be average, and a little below average. "far better"...Please.You sound biased.

I wouldn't go that far.More like Marshall goes from great to good.

Royal goes from good to average.

On the flip side:

Olsen goes from good to great.

Hester goes from average to good.

Okay, so you didn't really mean "FAR better"... that was a real stretch. Marshall's one of the better WR in the league, period. And Royal is better than average, although admittedly, still with more to prove (which he will).I think you're too high on Cutler. He's obviously one of the better QB's, but you're really elevating him.

 

[shredhead]

Before I answer if he'll outperform his trade value, what is his trade value?IMO, Cutler is in the 8-12 range right now.

Perhaps a 1st, a 3rd, and Orton. In other words, I think the OP meant NFL value, not fantasy.No he won't outproduce what Chicago gave up for him, but he may outproduce what Denver got for him, because Denver gave one of the picks to Seattle.

Actually, Denver got two firsts, and they didn't trade either of them to Seattle- the pick they traded to Seattle was THEIR OWN first rounder next year (which they would have had whether they'd made the trade or not).IMO, Cutler's going to dramatically outperform his trade value. When Eli Manning becomes the highest-paid player in the league (despite being arguably the 10th-best QB in the league) you realize just how important it is to have a good QB, and just how hard it is to find one.

You are correct, I forgot about the first round next year, that pick is probably one of the reasons they felt like they could afford to trade their own first away. I also agree with you that franchise QB's are rare and hard to find. I posted that before I heard about the new Eli deal. Maybe between your points and the one's made about Chicago's track record with #1's, it wasn't so bad of a trade for the Bears. The Bears should be in the playoffs as either the division winner or at least a wild card. The Broncos are a lot farther away from seeing post season games.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Here are the Bears 1st round draft picks since 1990:

Chris Williams

Greg Olsen

Cedric Benson

Tommie Harris

Michael Haynes

Rex Grossman

Marc Colombo

David Terrell

Brian Ulracher

Cade McNown

Curtis Enis

Walt Harris

Rashaan Salaam

John Thierry

Curtis Conway

Alonzo Spellman

Stan Thomas

Mark Carrier

In 18 picks, they've gotten one player with value even CLOSE to that of a franchise quarterback. With two 1st round picks, a team would be very, very unlikely to even get even one player that ends up being worth near what a 26 year old pro bowl QB is.

 

[Buffaloes]

Before I answer if he'll outperform his trade value, what is his trade value?

IMO, Cutler is in the 8-12 range right now.

Perhaps a 1st, a 3rd, and Orton. In other words, I think the OP meant NFL value, not fantasy.No he won't outproduce what Chicago gave up for him, but he may outproduce what Denver got for him, because Denver gave one of the picks to Seattle.

Actually, Denver got two firsts, and they didn't trade either of them to Seattle- the pick they traded to Seattle was THEIR OWN first rounder next year (which they would have had whether they'd made the trade or not).IMO, Cutler's going to dramatically outperform his trade value. When Eli Manning becomes the highest-paid player in the league (despite being arguably the 10th-best QB in the league) you realize just how important it is to have a good QB, and just how hard it is to find one.

You are correct, I forgot about the first round next year, that pick is probably one of the reasons they felt like they could afford to trade their own first away. I also agree with you that franchise QB's are rare and hard to find. I posted that before I heard about the new Eli deal. Maybe between your points and the one's made about Chicago's track record with #1's, it wasn't so bad of a trade for the Bears. The Bears should be in the playoffs as either the division winner or at least a wild card. The Broncos are a lot farther away from seeing post season games.

Surprising how losing Cutler has so many people thinking this. I don't think the Broncos will be a top echelon team by any stretch of the imagination but I'm not ready to count the, out of the post season or wild card race before a down has been played. They lost Cutler but have made strides to improve the rest of their offense along with improving an historically bad defense.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here are the Bears 1st round draft picks since 1990:Chris WilliamsGreg OlsenCedric BensonTommie HarrisMichael HaynesRex GrossmanMarc ColomboDavid TerrellBrian UlracherCade McNownCurtis EnisWalt HarrisRashaan SalaamJohn ThierryCurtis ConwayAlonzo SpellmanStan ThomasMark CarrierIn 18 picks, they've gotten one player with value even CLOSE to that of a franchise quarterback. With two 1st round picks, a team would be very, very unlikely to even get even one player that ends up being worth near what a 26 year old pro bowl QB is.

While the Bears first round draft record hasn't been great, I think you were a little too quick to poo poo some of their selections . . .Chris Williams - Too soon to tellGreg Olsen - Strong chance to be a Top 5 TE this yearCedric Benson - May do better in CincyTommie Harris - 3 Pro Bowls in 5 yearsMichael Haynes - only played 3 yearsRex Grossman - Mostly a bust but did get the Bears to the SB his one year as a full time starterMarc Colombo - 71 games in 6 yearsDavid Terrell - bustBrian Ulracher - 6-time Pro Bowler & 4-time first-team All-Pro Cade McNown - 2 years of disappointmentCurtis Enis - 1 ok season but other than that out of the leaue after 3 yearsWalt Harris - 1 Pro Bowl, 13 years, 193 gamesRashaan Salaam - Solid rookie year then nothingJohn Thierry - 9 years, 131 gamesCurtis Conway - 12 years, 5 years as a Top 36 fantasy WRAlonzo Spellman - Played in 123 games over 9 yearsStan Thomas - didn't do much but played in 56 gamesMark Carrier - 1 Pro Bowl, 7 years as a Top 36 fantasy WRI count 8 guys that had or may have decent NFL careers (Olsen, Harris, Urlacher, Harris, Thierry, Conway, Spellman, Carrier). 8/18 = 44%. I don't think that's all the bad, and if you compare it to other teams in the timeframe I would guess that's better than you are thinking.

 

[ditka85]

Here are the Bears 1st round draft picks since 1990:

Chris Williams

Greg Olsen

Cedric Benson

Tommie Harris

Michael Haynes

Rex Grossman

Marc Colombo

David Terrell

Brian Ulracher

Cade McNown

Curtis Enis

Walt Harris

Rashaan Salaam

John Thierry

Curtis Conway

Alonzo Spellman

Stan Thomas

Mark Carrier

In 18 picks, they've gotten one player with value even CLOSE to that of a franchise quarterback. With two 1st round picks, a team would be very, very unlikely to even get even one player that ends up being worth near what a 26 year old pro bowl QB is.

While the Bears first round draft record hasn't been great, I think you were a little too quick to poo poo some of their selections . . .Chris Williams - Too soon to tell

Greg Olsen - Strong chance to be a Top 5 TE this year

Cedric Benson - May do better in Cincy

Tommie Harris - 3 Pro Bowls in 5 years

Michael Haynes - only played 3 years

Rex Grossman - Mostly a bust but did get the Bears to the SB his one year as a full time starter

Marc Colombo - 71 games in 6 years

David Terrell - bust

Brian Ulracher - 6-time Pro Bowler & 4-time first-team All-Pro

Cade McNown - 2 years of disappointment

Curtis Enis - 1 ok season but other than that out of the leaue after 3 years

Walt Harris - 1 Pro Bowl, 13 years, 193 games

Rashaan Salaam - Solid rookie year then nothing

John Thierry - 9 years, 131 games

Curtis Conway - 12 years, 5 years as a Top 36 fantasy WR

Alonzo Spellman - Played in 123 games over 9 years

Stan Thomas - didn't do much but played in 56 games

Mark Carrier - 1 Pro Bowl, 7 years as a Top 36 fantasy WR

I count 8 guys that had or may have decent NFL careers (Olsen, Harris, Urlacher, Harris, Thierry, Conway, Spellman, Carrier). 8/18 = 44%. I don't think that's all the bad, and if you compare it to other teams in the timeframe I would guess that's better than you are thinking.

I think you mean Mark Carrier the safety, not the WR from TB.

 

[RudeDog]

Not sure you can evaluate a trade after only one season. This one could take years to properly analyze.

True. But I would consider him outperforming what they gave up if they get to the SB and have a few conference championships with him at the helm.This seems possible. Some analysts are even saying they could make the SB this year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here are the Bears 1st round draft picks since 1990:

Chris Williams

Greg Olsen

Cedric Benson

Tommie Harris

Michael Haynes

Rex Grossman

Marc Colombo

David Terrell

Brian Ulracher

Cade McNown

Curtis Enis

Walt Harris

Rashaan Salaam

John Thierry

Curtis Conway

Alonzo Spellman

Stan Thomas

Mark Carrier

In 18 picks, they've gotten one player with value even CLOSE to that of a franchise quarterback. With two 1st round picks, a team would be very, very unlikely to even get even one player that ends up being worth near what a 26 year old pro bowl QB is.

While the Bears first round draft record hasn't been great, I think you were a little too quick to poo poo some of their selections . . .Chris Williams - Too soon to tell

Greg Olsen - Strong chance to be a Top 5 TE this year

Cedric Benson - May do better in Cincy

Tommie Harris - 3 Pro Bowls in 5 years

Michael Haynes - only played 3 years

Rex Grossman - Mostly a bust but did get the Bears to the SB his one year as a full time starter

Marc Colombo - 71 games in 6 years

David Terrell - bust

Brian Ulracher - 6-time Pro Bowler & 4-time first-team All-Pro

Cade McNown - 2 years of disappointment

Curtis Enis - 1 ok season but other than that out of the leaue after 3 years

Walt Harris - 1 Pro Bowl, 13 years, 193 games

Rashaan Salaam - Solid rookie year then nothing

John Thierry - 9 years, 131 games

Curtis Conway - 12 years, 5 years as a Top 36 fantasy WR

Alonzo Spellman - Played in 123 games over 9 years

Stan Thomas - didn't do much but played in 56 games

Mark Carrier - 1 Pro Bowl, 7 years as a Top 36 fantasy WR

I count 8 guys that had or may have decent NFL careers (Olsen, Harris, Urlacher, Harris, Thierry, Conway, Spellman, Carrier). 8/18 = 44%. I don't think that's all the bad, and if you compare it to other teams in the timeframe I would guess that's better than you are thinking.

I think you mean Mark Carrier the safety, not the WR from TB.

Yes, you're right. Carrier the DB was a 3-time Pro Bowl guy himself that played for 11 years.

 

[SSOG]

Surprising how losing Cutler has so many people thinking this. I don't think the Broncos will be a top echelon team by any stretch of the imagination but I'm not ready to count the, out of the post season or wild card race before a down has been played. They lost Cutler but have made strides to improve the rest of their offense along with improving an historically bad defense.

What strides have they made to improve the rest of their offense? Drafting Moreno isn't anywhere NEAR enough to make up for the loss of Cutler, and RB was only a problem last year because we lost SEVEN OF THEM to season-ending injuries. The Broncos would have been just fine with Jordan, Buckhalter, Torain, and Hillis shouldering the load. And after Moreno, then what? Adding Jabari Gaffney? Drafting a rookie blocking TE to sit behind the best blocking TE in the league for a couple of years? Changing schemes from a proven offensive system which the personnel knew and fit perfectly (and were one of the best offenses in the league with) to another scheme that might or might not work with the personnel in place? No matter how you slice it, the offense took a massive step back (losing a stud at the most important and irreplaceable position, adding a highly touted crapshoot at the most fungible position, and changing schemes from a proven one to an unproven one).Also, the only hope I have for the defense AT ALL is "regression to the mean". The only reason I can come up with for them to play better is because they couldn't possibly play worse. I can't look at anything they've done and objectively consider it an upgrade. They added a lot of pieces to the secondary that makes it look better on paper, but they also turned it into one of the oldest starting secondaries in NFL history- I'm half expecting McDaniels to try to lure Lynch out of retirement so he could start next to Dawkins. The front 7, objectively speaking, actually looks worse this year than last year. The LBs are exactly the same, but now they're learning a new scheme. The D-line is every bit as terrible as it was last year (if not moreso), except now they're playing a scheme for which they're comically ill-suited. The two best front-seven players are D.J. Williams and Elvis Dumervil, and now you're asking the first guy to play a technique he's never played, and the second guy to play an ENTIRE POSITION he's never played. Sure, it might work, but I'd say there's a 5% chance that Dumervil will actually be better as a 3-4 OLB, and a 95% chance that he'll be significantly worse. Ditto that with Marcus Thomas, the only other decent d-lineman on the team, who is now playing... what, 3-4 DE? NT? Where does he fit in that scheme? Why not have all of your secondary guys become DLinemen, and all of your DLinemen play CB and safety while you're at it?Denver almost made the playoffs last year, but that was a fluke- their scoring margin was -80, iirc, which is generally the hallmark of a 5-11 or 6-10 team, not an 8-8 team. If nothing else, they SHOULD have been 7-9 last year (and even that was overperforming). They've done absolutely nothing to convince me that they're BETTER this year than they were last, which is why I've already counted them out of the postseason race before the season ever started. For the record, this is actually the first time since I followed the NFL that I actually did NOT expect the Broncos to make the playoffs before the season started.

 

[Buffaloes]

Surprising how losing Cutler has so many people thinking this. I don't think the Broncos will be a top echelon team by any stretch of the imagination but I'm not ready to count the, out of the post season or wild card race before a down has been played. They lost Cutler but have made strides to improve the rest of their offense along with improving an historically bad defense.

What strides have they made to improve the rest of their offense? Drafting Moreno isn't anywhere NEAR enough to make up for the loss of Cutler, and RB was only a problem last year because we lost SEVEN OF THEM to season-ending injuries. The Broncos would have been just fine with Jordan, Buckhalter, Torain, and Hillis shouldering the load. And after Moreno, then what? Adding Jabari Gaffney? Drafting a rookie blocking TE to sit behind the best blocking TE in the league for a couple of years? Changing schemes from a proven offensive system which the personnel knew and fit perfectly (and were one of the best offenses in the league with) to another scheme that might or might not work with the personnel in place? No matter how you slice it, the offense took a massive step back (losing a stud at the most important and irreplaceable position, adding a highly touted crapshoot at the most fungible position, and changing schemes from a proven one to an unproven one).Also, the only hope I have for the defense AT ALL is "regression to the mean". The only reason I can come up with for them to play better is because they couldn't possibly play worse. I can't look at anything they've done and objectively consider it an upgrade. They added a lot of pieces to the secondary that makes it look better on paper, but they also turned it into one of the oldest starting secondaries in NFL history- I'm half expecting McDaniels to try to lure Lynch out of retirement so he could start next to Dawkins. The front 7, objectively speaking, actually looks worse this year than last year. The LBs are exactly the same, but now they're learning a new scheme. The D-line is every bit as terrible as it was last year (if not moreso), except now they're playing a scheme for which they're comically ill-suited. The two best front-seven players are D.J. Williams and Elvis Dumervil, and now you're asking the first guy to play a technique he's never played, and the second guy to play an ENTIRE POSITION he's never played. Sure, it might work, but I'd say there's a 5% chance that Dumervil will actually be better as a 3-4 OLB, and a 95% chance that he'll be significantly worse. Ditto that with Marcus Thomas, the only other decent d-lineman on the team, who is now playing... what, 3-4 DE? NT? Where does he fit in that scheme? Why not have all of your secondary guys become DLinemen, and all of your DLinemen play CB and safety while you're at it?Denver almost made the playoffs last year, but that was a fluke- their scoring margin was -80, iirc, which is generally the hallmark of a 5-11 or 6-10 team, not an 8-8 team. If nothing else, they SHOULD have been 7-9 last year (and even that was overperforming). They've done absolutely nothing to convince me that they're BETTER this year than they were last, which is why I've already counted them out of the postseason race before the season ever started. For the record, this is actually the first time since I followed the NFL that I actually did NOT expect the Broncos to make the playoffs before the season started.

SSOG, I've copied your response in the Broncos offseason thread. I didn't want to take this thread in the wrong direction...