D.K. Metcalf - Theory on top 10 WR Season (Thoughts) (1 Viewer)

[UFO]

So everyone knows D.K. went from having a HOF QB to two journeyman who neither have been able to succeed as a starter in the NFL...check.

He also plays for a coach who wants to run the ball as much as possible, even when he had that HOF QB...check.

EVERY expert has knocked him down the ranking significantly...check.

However I have yet to see the opposite point of view...here goes. Please shoot holes in this, I really would like to know any flaws in this line of thinking.

SEA has an average to below average D, this is not your father's Legion of Boom
They play in a division with 3 of the highest scoring teams in the league in LAR, AZ and SF
The ALSO play the AFC West with 4 of the highest scoring teams in the league.
That's 10 games against teams we know are going to put up a lot of points.
Does this not add up to TONS of second half garbage time? Think Amon-Ra St. Brown 2021 type of utilization, same formula, crappy QB + crappy D.
As much as Carrol wants to run the ball it's going to be hard to execute that game plan in the 2nd half when you are down 21-3

Again, tell me if there are any flaws in this line of thinking that projects DK in the top 10 WRs.

 

[Apple Juice]

Yeah I think the biggest thing people are overlooking is Seattle's defense. The offense is going to have to throw in the second half and DK is the perfect type of receiver to rack up garbage time TDs, especially with QBs have little choice but to just heave it and hope for the best.

 

[habsfan]

So everyone knows D.K. went from having a HOF QB to two journeyman who neither have been able to succeed as a starter in the NFL...check.

He also plays for a coach who wants to run the ball as much as possible, even when he had that HOF QB...check.

EVERY expert has knocked him down the ranking significantly...check.

However I have yet to see the opposite point of view...here goes. Please shoot holes in this, I really would like to know any flaws in this line of thinking.

SEA has an average to below average D, this is not your father's Legion of Boom
They play in a division with 3 of the highest scoring teams in the league in LAR, AZ and SF
The ALSO play the AFC West with 4 of the highest scoring teams in the league.
That's 10 games against teams we know are going to put up a lot of points.
Does this not add up to TONS of second half garbage time? Think Amon-Ra St. Brown 2021 type of utilization, same formula, crappy QB + crappy D.
As much as Carrol wants to run the ball it's going to be hard to execute that game plan in the 2nd half when you are down 21-3

Again, tell me if there are any flaws in this line of thinking that projects DK in the top 10 WRs.

I wouldn't say flaws. I think these are all sound "inputs" to the equation. Another big input for me is "If they were hesitant to let Russ cook, will they let Geno and Drew?" All we really have to look at is Wilson's injury games and pre-season and those don't really point to a healthy passing game. If I were the opposing D, I'd be taking Metcalf away and if these guys can get it to Lockett, so be it.

 

[themeistersinger]

All your points are valid, but I think Goff is a much better QB than Geno or Lock. Also the Seahawks O-line isn't going to give either of them much time.
Metcalf will get some big plays here and there, but no way do I see him as top 10. No possible way.

 

[UFO]

So everyone knows D.K. went from having a HOF QB to two journeyman who neither have been able to succeed as a starter in the NFL...check.

He also plays for a coach who wants to run the ball as much as possible, even when he had that HOF QB...check.

EVERY expert has knocked him down the ranking significantly...check.

However I have yet to see the opposite point of view...here goes. Please shoot holes in this, I really would like to know any flaws in this line of thinking.

SEA has an average to below average D, this is not your father's Legion of Boom
They play in a division with 3 of the highest scoring teams in the league in LAR, AZ and SF
The ALSO play the AFC West with 4 of the highest scoring teams in the league.
That's 10 games against teams we know are going to put up a lot of points.
Does this not add up to TONS of second half garbage time? Think Amon-Ra St. Brown 2021 type of utilization, same formula, crappy QB + crappy D.
As much as Carrol wants to run the ball it's going to be hard to execute that game plan in the 2nd half when you are down 21-3

Again, tell me if there are any flaws in this line of thinking that projects DK in the top 10 WRs.

I wouldn't say flaws. I think these are all sound "inputs" to the equation. Another big input for me is "If they were hesitant to let Russ cook, will they let Geno and Drew?" All we really have to look at is Wilson's injury games and pre-season and those don't really point to a healthy passing game. If I were the opposing D, I'd be taking Metcalf away and if these guys can get it to Lockett, so be it.

They didn't let Wilson cook because they were in games for the most part, this year short fields, turnovers, below average D, plus 10 games against elite offenses are all going to add up to large deficits in second half...not a matter of letting anyone cook if you are down 21 points in the third quarter your not running the ball anymore.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Seattle has arguably the worst combo of potential starting QBs in the league. They are #32 maybe even lower as a handful of other teams have better backup QBs too. BUT...Metcalf is a top 10 WR that just got a huge contract. I think they will have no choice but to let Metcalf cook and they paid him to do so.

 

[Galileo]

Not only will they be playing catch up, but do they really have the personnel to consistently run? Penny has trouble staying on the field. Walker now dealing with a sports hernia. Homer? Dallas? This running back room may be disappointing further pushing the need to throw. Not to mention a less than stellar offensive line (of course this doesn't help the passing narrative either)

 

[habsfan]

Historically speaking, it would be interesting to see how many teams as bad as Seattle is projected to be, have produced top 10 receivers.

Carolina finished 27th in the power rankings last year and DJ Moore finished 17th in my (PPR) league's WR scoring - just a hair ahead of Metcalf. I'm sure there are better examples though.

 

[TripItUp]

I expect a lot of inconsistency...DK will be taken completely out of many games. D Coordinators know he is one of the few threats on the offense.

 

[TheWinz]

Historically speaking, it would be interesting to see how many teams as bad as Seattle is projected to be, have produced top 10 receivers.

Carolina finished 27th in the power rankings last year and DJ Moore finished 17th in my (PPR) league's WR scoring - just a hair ahead of Metcalf. I'm sure there are better examples though.

Well, I didn't use power rankings - I used overall passing yards. In the last 10 years, here are all the PPR WR1's (1 thru 12) from teams ranked 27 thru 32 (bottom 6):
AJ Green - In 2017, he finished WR10 and the Bengals finished 27th in passing yards
Brandon Marshall - In 2012, he finished WR2 and the Bears finished 29th in passing yards

Both players above are big-bodied guys like DK. Green accounted for 35% of his teams passing yards, and amazingly, Marshall accounted for 50%! So, while there are players that have bucked the trend, IMO the monkey wrench is Tyler Lockett. Unless he is completely thrown to the curb, he will demand enough targets to render Metcalf a WR2 at best. Although, if you are bored, go look at Marshall's 2012 season. It's pretty amazing, and perhaps DK can duplicate it.

 

[habsfan]

Historically speaking, it would be interesting to see how many teams as bad as Seattle is projected to be, have produced top 10 receivers.

Carolina finished 27th in the power rankings last year and DJ Moore finished 17th in my (PPR) league's WR scoring - just a hair ahead of Metcalf. I'm sure there are better examples though.

Well, I didn't use power rankings - I used overall passing yards. In the last 10 years, here are all the PPR WR1's (1 thru 12) from teams ranked 27 thru 32 (bottom 6):
AJ Green - In 2017, he finished WR10 and the Bengals finished 27th in passing yards
Brandon Marshall - In 2012, he finished WR2 and the Bears finished 29th in passing yards

Both players above are big-bodied guys like DK. Green accounted for 35% of his teams passing yards, and amazingly, Marshall accounted for 50%! So, while there are players that have bucked the trend, IMO the monkey wrench is Tyler Lockett. Unless he is completely thrown to the curb, he will demand enough targets to render Metcalf a WR2 at best. Although, if you are bored, go look at Marshall's 2012 season. It's pretty amazing, and perhaps DK can duplicate it.

Well we know it's not impossible I guess but the other thing to overlay is that the QBs in these scenarios were Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton, one a generational arm talent and notorious "gun slinger" and the other a solid (if unspectacular) starter. In this scenario we have Geno Smith and a coach who ran Alex Collins into the pile for a good part of the season. Food for thought...

 

[BobbyLayne]

Don't expect Seattle to score a lot of TDs. Pretty much avoiding all Seahawks, even KWIII (hernia.) Metcalf is a freak athlete but his reminds of Hopkins in 2016 (Brock Osweiler/Tom Savage QBs.) Nuk didn't come at a discount that year and killed everyone's team - WR36.

Metcalf's consensus ranking is late 4th in PPR, and his consensus ADP is higher. Not adding up.

 

[The Dude]

Not saying he's not going to produce but that's a small sample of WR's on bad passing teams to be successful. There's likely not going to be enough opportunity there for him - and even if successful it's likely to be the result of 2-3 great games.

Recent ADP says WR19. In the M Williams, Sutton, B Cooks, A Robinson, A St Brown range. I would probably take any of those guys over DK (even Cooks who is in the same scenario)

 

[Chaka]

Not saying he's not going to produce but that's a small sample of WR's on bad passing teams to be successful. There's likely not going to be enough opportunity there for him - and even if successful it's likely to be the result of 2-3 great games.

Recent ADP says WR19. In the M Williams, Sutton, B Cooks, A Robinson, A St Brown range. I would probably take any of those guys over DK (even Cooks who is in the same scenario)

I would also probably take any of those players over Metcalf. Davis, IMO, looks like he may be a legitimate NFL QB and he had a good rapport with Cooks and they are a better team this season.

 

[TVT 0 N S T A]

If Metcalf were going in the 5th, I would be all-in, but I think he is going a round too early and there is still a lot of value in that round.

Michael Thomas, Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, D. Hop - I would take DK over all of them and most of the RB's in that round too but I don't think his situation makes him worthy of being drated ahead of Diontae Johnson, Breece Hall, George Kittle or DJ Moore. Although, some great points in this post and it does have me reconsidering at what point would I take DK, because I think Drew Lock will throw up some prayers his way.

 

[The Dude]

Although, some great points in this post and it does have me reconsidering at what point would I take DK, because I think Drew Lock will throw up some prayers his way.

not contradicting your statement but feast or famine usually ends with a lot more of the latter

 

[Gatorman]

Your argument holds water, but not at that ADP. Better to get lockett or the pass catching RB on that team (or even the TE) because they will represent value at the position.

Moreover (assuming this is a league you can make trades) you will never get "value" for putting DK in a trade offer. People will see a terrible offense and a terrible QB and want nothing to do with that.

If you like DK that much and he goes around ADP, you likely can trade a later round player you picked for him if they look terrible to start the season.

 

[rockaction]

Carolina finished 27th in the power rankings last year and DJ Moore finished 17th in my (PPR) league's WR scoring

This gives me hope because Walker, Newton, and Darnold are barely starter quality, if at all. Walker seems rough, Newton's arm is shot beyond comprehension, and Darnold is a never-was.

 

[Ilov80s]

I expect a lot of inconsistency...DK will be taken completely out of many games. D Coordinators know he is one of the few threats on the offense.

Absolutely. There were games with Russ where defenses were completely able to take him away. Seattle couldn't or wouldn't find ways to even manufacture him touches. That said, it could be on Wilson as well. Wilson loves his deep shots, loves holding on to the ball and is at his worst trying to hit short passes to move the chains. Maybe he was a little to indecisive or unwilling to give DK more short-quick targets. With a lesser QB, the coaches might be forced to be more creative. Also, if I am a struggling QB and I have DK, he's always going to be my default target just because of his size. Let him make contested catches for me.

I think the value and potential payoff on DK is nice right now. I would draft him mid to late 4th if I felt I needed to go WR.

 

[jon007]

Ocho Cinco was always my ace in the hole for this exact reason. Unsexy pick that got lots of garbage time.
The question is, can Geno perform like Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer after halftime?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I actually like DKM a lot this year. He wasn't bad without Wilson, he's a target monster, and his YAC is never in question.

At his 5th round ADP he's a nice value, too.

The only limitation is the overall competence of that offense, which I question. But DKM should be a top 20 WR. Top 10 is pushing it, IMO. There are just too many quality WR in better situations.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

The only way DK eeks into the top 10 is if he becomes a PPR monster running a lot of shorter yardage slants, outs, and hooks. I expect his YPR to tumble into the 10-11 range. For that to head into top 10 territory, he'll need to up his receptions into the 110 range with a stat line of something like 110/1200/9. I'm just not sure that's feasible in this offense. I expect DK to be an overpriced mid to low end WR2 this season with a stat line more on the order of 85/950/8. I also expect him to be extremely frustrated about the QB situation.

 

[renesauz]

The only way DK eeks into the top 10 is if he becomes a PPR monster running a lot of shorter yardage slants, outs, and hooks. I expect his YPR to tumble into the 10-11 range. For that to head into top 10 territory, he'll need to up his receptions into the 110 range with a stat line of something like 110/1200/9. I'm just not sure that's feasible in this offense. I expect DK to be an overpriced mid to low end WR2 this season with a stat line more on the order of 85/950/8. I also expect him to be extremely frustrated about the QB situation.

This. He seems to be going at an appropriate spot to me. But I expect high variance so he won't be on many, if any, of my redraft squads. Dynasty? Might be worth a couple inquiries.