D.Mcallister - basically becomes L.White of USC (1 Viewer)

[Sanboy]

all i keep reading is how everyone is down on DEUCE and how the value of him is going down and down and down

even if you think BUSH is the second coming .. look at how he was used in college

White and BUsh combo .. a pure RBBC ..

but if DEUCE only puts up the same numbers WHITE put up in college .. and Bush actually touchs the ball even as much as he did in college..

where is the bad impact of this .. ?

yes i am a deuce owner in one league .. but he is my # 5 RB .. so he wont reallly impact me ...

but he woudl seem to be a perfect buy low guy

1. no one knows if BUSH will be able to take the NFL pounding

2. Deuce will be used as the power Rb the same way WHITE was used at USC and white got HIS and got the Td's ...

 

[aposulli]

all i keep reading is how everyone is down on DEUCE and how the value of him is going down and down and down

even if you think BUSH is the second coming .. look at how he was used in college

White and BUsh combo .. a pure RBBC ..

but if DEUCE only puts up the same numbers WHITE put up in college .. and Bush actually touchs the ball even as much as he did in college..

where is the bad impact of this .. ?

yes i am a deuce owner in one league .. but he is my # 5 RB .. so he wont reallly impact me ...

but he woudl seem to be a perfect buy low guy

1. no one knows if BUSH will be able to take the NFL pounding

2. Deuce will be used as the power Rb the same way WHITE was used at USC and white got HIS and got the Td's ...

I had the exact same thought too.I'd even take it a step farther and say Brees has a similar skill set to Leinart.

If anything it'll help the Saints win games more than anything... as for fantasy, Deuce doesn't lose a ton of value, but I wouldn't consider him top 10 in redraft, or dynasty.

Edit: This drop in value is also due to the knee issues

 

[Sanboy]

i disagree .. i dont think it has anything to do with the knee issue . or very little .. i think most of this is because BUSH is there now

but i do agree BREES and LIENART are both smart Qb's who can only be good if they have talent around them

neither could ever WIN a game for a team

 

[Blackjacks]

Torn ACL = bad next year for RB's

 

[Z-Dog]

My hope and assumption is that a team with McAllister + Bush will run an awful lot - on the order of 550 rushes. On such a team, I could see Bush getting about 180 carries and 60 receptions, and McAllister could still have 250-300 rushes.

I think I like McAllister at the bottom of the 2nd or top of the 3rd, but I'm not sure yet.

 

[Chaos Commish]

New Orleans isn't going to approach 50 points a game like USC did. Deuce won't produce like LenDale did and Reggie won't produce like Reggie did.

 

[aposulli]

My hope and assumption is that a team with McAllister + Bush will run an awful lot - on the order of 550 rushes. On such a team, I could see Bush getting about 180 carries and 60 receptions, and McAllister could still have 250-300 rushes.

I think I like McAllister at the bottom of the 2nd or top of the 3rd, but I'm not sure yet.

I'd say more like 60 catches, 90-120 carries for Bush... 30-40 catches, around 280-300 carries for Deuce

 

[cscmtp]

McAllister is a big back, coming off knee surgery. No way he has a big year IMO. He may do okay, but 300 carries and 1200+ yards? I wouldn't hold my breath...

 

[Monarch]

Saints fan. I would not touch him before the sixth round in a redraft. Too many other backs with bigger upsides. Who knows if he will be the old Deuce. This deuce may be a great guy but he is going to put up deuce Staley numbers and not Deuce MCAlister numbers.

 

[brett4pack]

Is there a handcuff strategy here? Duece hasnt been able to stay real healthy.

Where does everyone think Bush would go if duece was out of the picture?

 

[aposulli]

Is there a handcuff strategy here? Duece hasnt been able to stay real healthy.

Where does everyone think Bush would go if duece was out of the picture?

In redrafts, hes a 1st rounder with no Deuce.But don't think the Saints are cutting bait. Not this year anyway.

 

[delusional]

league wide biggest handcuffs?

 

[diesel7982]

My hope and assumption is that a team with McAllister + Bush will run an awful lot - on the order of 550 rushes. On such a team, I could see Bush getting about 180 carries and 60 receptions, and McAllister could still have 250-300 rushes.

I think I like McAllister at the bottom of the 2nd or top of the 3rd, but I'm not sure yet.

I'd say more like 60 catches, 90-120 carries for Bush... 30-40 catches, around 280-300 carries for Deuce

Youre saying they are going to pay Bush around 25mil this year to touch the ball no more than 180 times, while Deuce, coming off an ACL injury, will get at least 300+?

 

[cstu]

My hope and assumption is that a team with McAllister + Bush will run an awful lot - on the order of 550 rushes. On such a team, I could see Bush getting about 180 carries and 60 receptions, and McAllister could still have 250-300 rushes.

I think I like McAllister at the bottom of the 2nd or top of the 3rd, but I'm not sure yet.

I'd say more like 60 catches, 90-120 carries for Bush... 30-40 catches, around 280-300 carries for Deuce

Youre saying they are going to pay Bush around 25mil this year to touch the ball no more than 180 times, while Deuce, coming off an ACL injury, will get at least 300+?

The money means nothing, look at how little Benson was used as a rookie.

 

[John Mamula]

I doubt Deuce is going to average 6+ YPC.

 

[diesel7982]

My hope and assumption is that a team with McAllister + Bush will run an awful lot - on the order of 550 rushes. On such a team, I could see Bush getting about 180 carries and 60 receptions, and McAllister could still have 250-300 rushes.

I think I like McAllister at the bottom of the 2nd or top of the 3rd, but I'm not sure yet.

I'd say more like 60 catches, 90-120 carries for Bush... 30-40 catches, around 280-300 carries for Deuce

Youre saying they are going to pay Bush around 25mil this year to touch the ball no more than 180 times, while Deuce, coming off an ACL injury, will get at least 300+?

The money means nothing, look at how little Benson was used as a rookie.

Apples and Dobermans.Benson held out and had a very healthy Thomas Jones ahead of him.

 

[brett4pack]

I believe edge also had an ACL injury, i'm not sure how similar (I think Edge's was much worse, correct me if wrong)

He came back the following year and was obviously slowed, but still put up alright numbers (better in ppr leagues) he was RB24 playing in 14 games.

Not sure how that boads for duece's ability this year, but it certainly seems like duece isn't done yet. Also the saints probably are going to avoid pounding reggie up the middle to save him. Rookie RBs tend to wear down if overused and bush isn't the biggest back. I think it has be a pretty big RBBC with special plays to get bush involved (lining him up at wr).

If either back fell far enough they could have alot of value. They are both probably RB24 material. imo Much higher for either if there is an injury. I have a feeling that in alot of drafts one of the 2 will slip pretty far. I'm not sure about handcuffing as its probably RBBC.

 

[gocats]

Torn ACL = bad next year for RB's

And its been reported theres still swelling in the knee so hes not a good buy low for this season, 2007 maybe

 

[FTRWRTR]

Torn ACL = bad next year for RB's

Yeah, mike anderson getting over 1,200 yards of total offense and 13 TDs last year despite being in a rbbc was pretty crappyTo me the big difference between the rb situation in new orleans and the one at USC is that deuce is already an established rb, and a darned good one when healthy while white was clearly always the #2 guy

 

[Double_J]

All it means is that running backs that get 95 percent of their teams carries become even more of a premium. Seems like more and more teams are going to RBBC, so if you can take a guy that doesn't split carries he's even more valuable.

 

[fsufan]

RBBC FF wise is bad, but Bush and McAllister could/will make a great 1, 2 punch.

I think both will be good plays for leagues that use a flex or 2

 

[Cunning Linguist]

I see 700yds/10Td's for Deuce with most of it coming in the end of the season when he is healthier and Reggie wears down from the rigors of the NFL.

 

[Blackjacks]

Torn ACL = bad next year for RB's

Yeah, mike anderson getting over 1,200 yards of total offense and 13 TDs last year despite being in a rbbc was pretty crappyTo me the big difference between the rb situation in new orleans and the one at USC is that deuce is already an established rb, and a darned good one when healthy while white was clearly always the #2 guy

Did he get hurt during the season, say week 5? Or did he get hurt in training camp 3 months earlier? The only back I know to have a good year after an ACL injury was Jamal Lewis and a big reason for that is he tore his ACL in April. I believe M. Anderson's ACL snapped in June 2 years ago while Deuce tore his in late Oct. That's a big difference for recovery time.

 

[(HULK)]

All it means is that running backs that get 95 percent of their teams carries become even more of a premium. Seems like more and more teams are going to RBBC, so if you can take a guy that doesn't split carries he's even more valuable.

Those don't exist.

 

[Joseph]

Wasn't L. White the L. White of USC?

 

[coolnerd]

My hope and assumption is that a team with McAllister + Bush will run an awful lot - on the order of 550 rushes. On such a team, I could see Bush getting about 180 carries and 60 receptions, and McAllister could still have 250-300 rushes.

I think I like McAllister at the bottom of the 2nd or top of the 3rd, but I'm not sure yet.

I'd say more like 60 catches, 90-120 carries for Bush... 30-40 catches, around 280-300 carries for Deuce

Youre saying they are going to pay Bush around 25mil this year to touch the ball no more than 180 times, while Deuce, coming off an ACL injury, will get at least 300+?

Bush's value comes from his ability to make a big play out of multiple positions, not line-up behind the center and run 23 zone stretches a game. He is much more Faulk/Westbrook than say LT2. The number of touches is not as important as getting him touches where he can exploit the defense with his speed, quicknes and cutting ability. I think the original poster numbers are a little low. 225 touches would closer to the estimate for me if Duece is healthy. If your concern is money, Duece has one the larger Rb contracts out there himself and in a lot of ways 275 touches for the salary is also expensive.

 

[David Yudkin]

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was? And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level? And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?

Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

N.O. ranked 22nd in rushing attempts, 18th in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing TD in 2005. They ranked 26th, 27th, and 11th in 2004. Unless they dramatically alter their strategy, IMO cutting up a pie that has not been huge to begin with will not yield great results. I have a hard time seeing how Deuce could rank in the Top 25 RBs.

 

[coolnerd]

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was? And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level? And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?

Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

N.O. ranked 22nd in rushing attempts, 18th in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing TD in 2005. They ranked 26th, 27th, and 11th in 2004. Unless they dramatically alter their strategy, IMO cutting up a pie that has not been huge to begin with will not yield great results. I have a hard time seeing how Deuce could rank in the Top 25 RBs.

It will interesting to see if these trends continue with an entirely new coaching staff, expensive new weapon and new QB. If the only difference was addition of Bush the numbers would hold more weight in my mind.

 

[Z-Dog]

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was? And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level? And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?

Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

N.O. ranked 22nd in rushing attempts, 18th in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing TD in 2005. They ranked 26th, 27th, and 11th in 2004. Unless they dramatically alter their strategy, IMO cutting up a pie that has not been huge to begin with will not yield great results. I have a hard time seeing how Deuce could rank in the Top 25 RBs.

New QB, new coaching staff, new offensive centerpiece. My projections for NO are going to be dramatically different from their season-end rankings last year. I don't see how NO rushes fewer than 450 times, and like I said, I'm actually thinking they go for as many as 550.

 

[trader jake]

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was? And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level? And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?

Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

N.O. ranked 22nd in rushing attempts, 18th in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing TD in 2005. They ranked 26th, 27th, and 11th in 2004. Unless they dramatically alter their strategy, IMO cutting up a pie that has not been huge to begin with will not yield great results. I have a hard time seeing how Deuce could rank in the Top 25 RBs.

It will interesting to see if these trends continue with an entirely new coaching staff, expensive new weapon and new QB. If the only difference was addition of Bush the numbers would hold more weight in my mind.

agreed. the effects of katrina had a huge impact in these numbers as well

 

[pinda]

New Orleans isn't going to approach 50 points a game like USC did. Deuce won't produce like LenDale did and Reggie won't produce like Reggie did.

I'll add to that, USC plays 3 maybe 4 games against worthy opponents per year, just like any other college program.

For the 100000000th time, college is not the NFL.

How people can think that Lendale's numbers in college will be similar to Deuce's in the NFL is beyond me. And the kicker is that I'm a Deuce owner. It just won't happen.

New Oreleans will put up 20-30 points per game. Not 55-70 like USC.

 

[Tau837]

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was? And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level? And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

It will interesting to see if these trends continue with an entirely new coaching staff, expensive new weapon and new QB. If the only difference was addition of Bush the numbers would hold more weight in my mind.

Both of these are good posts.To determine how much value Deuce may have has nothing to do with comparing Bush-Deuce to Bush-White at USC.Bush averaged 15.4 carries per game and White averaged 15.2.USC played 13 games and won 12 last season. Of those 12 wins, only 3 were by less than 21 points. They clearly were able to build leads and build up the carries.And when Bush averaged 8.7 ypc and White 6.6, they could afford to hand off plenty without the lead anyway.Bush (1740/16) & White (1302/24) combined for 3042/40 rushing in 13 games. This had a lot to do with their talent, but just as much to do with the superior talent around them, and in many cases, the lesser talent on the opposing defenses.Does anyone think Bush & Deuce will combine for more than 30 carries per game? Does anyone here think the Saints will build lots of monster leads and pound the ball late? Anyone think they Bush and/or Deuce will come anywhere close to those ypc averages? Does anyone here think even one of them stands a good chance of reaching either 1300 rushing yards or 16 TDs? Does anyone think the Saints will have a talent advantage over opponents comparable to USC's? Does anyone here think the quality of the Saints' opposing defenses will be relatively similar to that of USC's opposing defenses last year?I think the answer is clearly no to each of those questions, which means the USC situation is not useful as a predictor here.

 

[David Yudkin]

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was?  And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level?  And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?

Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

N.O. ranked 22nd in rushing attempts, 18th in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing TD in 2005.  They ranked 26th, 27th, and 11th in 2004.  Unless they dramatically alter their strategy, IMO cutting up a pie that has not been huge to begin with will not yield great results.  I have a hard time seeing how Deuce could rank in the Top 25 RBs.

New QB, new coaching staff, new offensive centerpiece. My projections for NO are going to be dramatically different from their season-end rankings last year. I don't see how NO rushes fewer than 450 times, and like I said, I'm actually thinking they go for as many as 550.

Here were the last dozen teams to have 550 rushing attempts in a season . . .04 Steelers 15-1

03 Ravens 10-6

01 Steelers 13-3

97 Steelers 11-5

96 Bills 10-6

94 Cowboys 12-4

93 Bills 12-4

93 Giants 11-5

90 Bears 11-5

89 Broncos 11-5

89 Giants 12-4

89 Chiefs 8-7-1

For starters, it shows that is is somewhat unusual for a team to get that many rushing attempts. Second, it takes a winning record. And third, the huge majority of those teams had very strong defenses to allow the offense to grind the ball out on offense. I personally do not see the 2006 Saints looking much like any of the teams on this list, but I suppose anything can happen . . .

 

[ATC1]

Bush's value comes from his ability to make a big play out of multiple positions, not line-up behind the center and run 23 zone stretches a game.  He is much more Faulk/Westbrook than say LT2.  The number of touches is not as important as getting him touches where he can exploit the defense with his speed, quicknes and cutting ability. 

I think the original poster numbers are a little low. 225 touches would closer to the estimate for me if Duece is healthy.  If your concern is money, Duece has one the larger Rb contracts out there himself and in a lot of ways 275 touches for the salary is also expensive.

Bush will be used everywhere. PR/KR/RB/slot/WR. With Duece they can line Bush up anywhere and take single coverage and burn the defense, or double coverage and Duece will be in the back feild to make them pay. However, Saints did very little to improve the greatest need this offseason. They lost 3 starting OL men, and picked up a underachiever C from CLE, and a 4th round tackle. I thought they needed to draft a solid tackle in the second round, where they pick up a saftey, who is 3rd on the depth charts right now. They should have done better if not for the protection of Duece and Bush, then for their investment in Brees. I would think they would want to do all they can protect his arm.

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was?  And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level?  And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?

Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

N.O. ranked 22nd in rushing attempts, 18th in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing TD in 2005.  They ranked 26th, 27th, and 11th in 2004.  Unless they dramatically alter their strategy, IMO cutting up a pie that has not been huge to begin with will not yield great results.  I have a hard time seeing how Deuce could rank in the Top 25 RBs.

Coaching staff has changed, so the stats from last year doesn't really matter. What matters is Saints OL not = USC OL.

 

[zamboni]

I'm in the camp that they're not paying Bush an inordinate amount of money to be a gadget-type back.

But by the same token, Deuce is making monster coin, too, so he's not just going to sit if he's ready.

My guess is that the team will use both to play to their strengths, with Deuce being the guy to get the tough yards/goalline duty. Again, this is assuming Deuce is ready.

Perhaps the team will be looking to trade Deuce after next year, and would rather not run him into the ground again and preserve his value.

 

[coolnerd]

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was?  And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level?  And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?

Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

N.O. ranked 22nd in rushing attempts, 18th in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing TD in 2005.  They ranked 26th, 27th, and 11th in 2004.  Unless they dramatically alter their strategy, IMO cutting up a pie that has not been huge to begin with will not yield great results.  I have a hard time seeing how Deuce could rank in the Top 25 RBs.

New QB, new coaching staff, new offensive centerpiece. My projections for NO are going to be dramatically different from their season-end rankings last year. I don't see how NO rushes fewer than 450 times, and like I said, I'm actually thinking they go for as many as 550.

Here were the last dozen teams to have 550 rushing attempts in a season . . .04 Steelers 15-1

03 Ravens 10-6

01 Steelers 13-3

97 Steelers 11-5

96 Bills 10-6

94 Cowboys 12-4

93 Bills 12-4

93 Giants 11-5

90 Bears 11-5

89 Broncos 11-5

89 Giants 12-4

89 Chiefs 8-7-1

For starters, it shows that is is somewhat unusual for a team to get that many rushing attempts. Second, it takes a winning record. And third, the huge majority of those teams had very strong defenses to allow the offense to grind the ball out on offense. I personally do not see the 2006 Saints looking much like any of the teams on this list, but I suppose anything can happen . . .

Most of us are using "touches" not "rushes." Using the numbers I had before 225 for Bush, 275 for Duece. I am assuming 75 pass catches (50 Bush, 25 duece) in that number. I then projected 175 rushes and 250 rushes for 425 rushes which in fact is below average for an NFL team if I am not mistaken. Now from a fantasy standpoint those number won't excite a lot of people, but it is the formula I would use to make the most of both players.

 

[Tau837]

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was?  And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level?  And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?

Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

N.O. ranked 22nd in rushing attempts, 18th in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing TD in 2005.  They ranked 26th, 27th, and 11th in 2004.  Unless they dramatically alter their strategy, IMO cutting up a pie that has not been huge to begin with will not yield great results.  I have a hard time seeing how Deuce could rank in the Top 25 RBs.

New QB, new coaching staff, new offensive centerpiece. My projections for NO are going to be dramatically different from their season-end rankings last year. I don't see how NO rushes fewer than 450 times, and like I said, I'm actually thinking they go for as many as 550.

Here were the last dozen teams to have 550 rushing attempts in a season . . .04 Steelers 15-1

03 Ravens 10-6

01 Steelers 13-3

97 Steelers 11-5

96 Bills 10-6

94 Cowboys 12-4

93 Bills 12-4

93 Giants 11-5

90 Bears 11-5

89 Broncos 11-5

89 Giants 12-4

89 Chiefs 8-7-1

For starters, it shows that is is somewhat unusual for a team to get that many rushing attempts. Second, it takes a winning record. And third, the huge majority of those teams had very strong defenses to allow the offense to grind the ball out on offense. I personally do not see the 2006 Saints looking much like any of the teams on this list, but I suppose anything can happen . . .

Most of us are using "touches" not "rushes." Using the numbers I had before 225 for Bush, 275 for Duece. I am assuming 75 pass catches (50 Bush, 25 duece) in that number. I then projected 175 rushes and 250 rushes for 425 rushes which in fact is below average for an NFL team if I am not mistaken. Now from a fantasy standpoint those number won't excite a lot of people, but it is the formula I would use to make the most of both players.

Is it below average for an NFL team's top two RBs? Most NFL teams give some carries to more than two RBs, plus WRs and QBs... so you can't merely look at NFL team carries. Top two RB rushes last season:ARI 268

ATL 401

BAL 384

BUF 370

CAR 384

CHI 390

CIN 398

CLE 330

DAL 395

DEN 412

DET 292

GB 220

HOU 320

IND 400

JAX 346

KC 455

MIA 372

MIN 281

NE 263

NO 261

NYG 396

NYJ 301

OAK 332

PHI 212

PIT 365

SD 397

SF 303

SEA 441

STL 318

TB 361

TEN 312

WAS 440

NFL AVG 347.5

The average for the top two RBs is 77.5 carries less than what you are projecting. And only 6 teams had 400+ carries for their top 2 RBs, with only 3 teams actually reaching your projection of 425.

I don't see it, espeically when the two backs you are talking about includes one rookie and the other coming off a serious knee injury. If they split touches as evenly as you are projecting, but you lower your projections to more reasonable totals, neither of them will be good value (barring injury).

 

[coolnerd]

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was?  And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level?  And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?

Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

N.O. ranked 22nd in rushing attempts, 18th in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing TD in 2005.  They ranked 26th, 27th, and 11th in 2004.  Unless they dramatically alter their strategy, IMO cutting up a pie that has not been huge to begin with will not yield great results.  I have a hard time seeing how Deuce could rank in the Top 25 RBs.

New QB, new coaching staff, new offensive centerpiece. My projections for NO are going to be dramatically different from their season-end rankings last year. I don't see how NO rushes fewer than 450 times, and like I said, I'm actually thinking they go for as many as 550.

Here were the last dozen teams to have 550 rushing attempts in a season . . .04 Steelers 15-1

03 Ravens 10-6

01 Steelers 13-3

97 Steelers 11-5

96 Bills 10-6

94 Cowboys 12-4

93 Bills 12-4

93 Giants 11-5

90 Bears 11-5

89 Broncos 11-5

89 Giants 12-4

89 Chiefs 8-7-1

For starters, it shows that is is somewhat unusual for a team to get that many rushing attempts. Second, it takes a winning record. And third, the huge majority of those teams had very strong defenses to allow the offense to grind the ball out on offense. I personally do not see the 2006 Saints looking much like any of the teams on this list, but I suppose anything can happen . . .

Most of us are using "touches" not "rushes." Using the numbers I had before 225 for Bush, 275 for Duece. I am assuming 75 pass catches (50 Bush, 25 duece) in that number. I then projected 175 rushes and 250 rushes for 425 rushes which in fact is below average for an NFL team if I am not mistaken. Now from a fantasy standpoint those number won't excite a lot of people, but it is the formula I would use to make the most of both players.

Is it below average for an NFL team's top two RBs? Most NFL teams give some carries to more than two RBs, plus WRs and QBs... so you can't merely look at NFL team carries. Top two RB rushes last season:ARI 268

ATL 401

BAL 384

BUF 370

CAR 384

CHI 390

CIN 398

CLE 330

DAL 395

DEN 412

DET 292

GB 220

HOU 320

IND 400

JAX 346

KC 455

MIA 372

MIN 281

NE 263

NO 261

NYG 396

NYJ 301

OAK 332

PHI 212

PIT 365

SD 397

SF 303

SEA 441

STL 318

TB 361

TEN 312

WAS 440

NFL AVG 347.5

The average for the top two RBs is 77.5 carries less than what you are projecting. And only 6 teams had 400+ carries for their top 2 RBs, with only 3 teams actually reaching your projection of 425.

I don't see it, espeically when the two backs you are talking about includes one rookie and the other coming off a serious knee injury. If they split touches as evenly as you are projecting, but you lower your projections to more reasonable totals, neither of them will be good value (barring injury).

I get what you are saying in terms of exactness of projection, but honestly I don't think our end points are different, which is more important for me. Nothing exciting from a fantasy standpoint if the distibution works in that manner. I would also argue that if we saw the Saints' (or any team) "pie in the sky" for 2006, it would not match the realities of injuries, unexpected player performances, and the actual flow of the game.

 

[cstu]

Is anyone missing that the Saints are the bottom of the NFL, not the top of collegiate ball like USC was? And the defenses they face are pro caliber not college level? And the Saints OL by comparison is nowhere near as dominant as the Trojans?

Deuce's numbers were destined to be hampered by his return from his ACL injury and Bush will likely take away half of his production.

N.O. ranked 22nd in rushing attempts, 18th in rushing yards, and 27th in rushing TD in 2005. They ranked 26th, 27th, and 11th in 2004. Unless they dramatically alter their strategy, IMO cutting up a pie that has not been huge to begin with will not yield great results. I have a hard time seeing how Deuce could rank in the Top 25 RBs.

New QB, new coaching staff, new offensive centerpiece. My projections for NO are going to be dramatically different from their season-end rankings last year. I don't see how NO rushes fewer than 450 times, and like I said, I'm actually thinking they go for as many as 550.

Here were the last dozen teams to have 550 rushing attempts in a season . . .04 Steelers 15-1

03 Ravens 10-6

01 Steelers 13-3

97 Steelers 11-5

96 Bills 10-6

94 Cowboys 12-4

93 Bills 12-4

93 Giants 11-5

90 Bears 11-5

89 Broncos 11-5

89 Giants 12-4

89 Chiefs 8-7-1

For starters, it shows that is is somewhat unusual for a team to get that many rushing attempts. Second, it takes a winning record. And third, the huge majority of those teams had very strong defenses to allow the offense to grind the ball out on offense. I personally do not see the 2006 Saints looking much like any of the teams on this list, but I suppose anything can happen . . .

They are "only" on pace for around 460, but