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Dallas Morning News NFL Draft Special Webcast (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter doughboydeluxe
- Start date
doughboydeluxe
Footballguy
Some highlights of what was said in the webcast:
Dale Hansen (the host) says Gosselin has hot on 88% of the first 100 players taken in the last three years.
Maybe he is talking about picking who will be the top 100 picked... it can't be what teams they went to. Gosselin says he has been doing this for 30 years, and he doesn't watch any film. He knows most everyone in the league, though, and talks to head coaches, GMs, personnel directors and scouts. He takes their opinions and tries to come up with a consensus board. It seems to me that he tries to predict where a player WILL go in the draft amd not where he SHOULD go. Anyway... here we go...
GOSSELIN'S THOUGHTS
There are nine impact players - Bush, Ferguson, Williams, Hawk, Young, Leinart, Cutler, Davis, and Michael Huff (in no particular order, although Huff is the 9th out of those guys). After those nine, he sees about 9 of the next 11 picks going defense before a run on offensive players at the end of the round. Says there may be 19 defensive players taken in the 1st. He goes on to say the first day will be all about defense, and the second day will be all about offense.
Looking just at measurables, Mario Williams is the safest pick of the draft. AJ Hawk is probably the safest looking at everything.
On the QBs: Leinart - ready to start from Day 1; Cutler - strongest arm of the three, will be ready in 2007; Young - needs the most work developing a pocket presence, and until he develops that he will be an injury risk (like Vick) because he will take off and run - but he has the most upside - he thinks he is two years away like McNair was; he thinks all three of them will be gone by pick 10
He thinks Leinart = Carson Palmer and Cutler = Brett Favre, but has no idea what VY would equal and that he could rewrite the definition of a QB is he reaches his potential
On VY's throwing motion - he's probably not going to change it that much, so if you are a team and have a problem with it, don't draft him
CBs - he says it's the stongest position in the draft, and 4-6 will go in the 1st round
He says that 98% of mistakes made in the draft are from teams drafting on need instead of taking the best player
He thinks there will be teams that draft from 15-20 who will try to drop down into the lower part of the 1st round, but that it might be difficult to do so.
Lendale White probably goes to either Carolina or Pittsburgh
Santonio Holmes is the top WR, but he may not even go in the 1st round - says this is the weakest WR draft in 20 years
He thinks there are some solid OL, WR, and RB prospects who will be taken in the 3-5th round that got pushed lower because of teams taking defense.
Gosselin's Top 5
Houston - Bush - Best RB to come along in a long time
NO - Williams - best defensive player on the board - equates him to Michael Strahan
Tennessee - VY - franchise has patience as they have show when they drafted McNair - same player as McNair with bigger upside
NY Jets - Leinart - they need a OT like Ferguson, but they also need a QB to counteract Eli Manning publicity wise
GB - AJ Hawk - safe pick
JERRY JONES' THOUGHTS
Cowboys have been exploring both trading up and down in the 1st round
If the Cowboys keep the 18th pick, unless an offensive player they have graded high falls, it's a pretty good pick the Cowboys will go defense
Cowboys don't have a 4th round pick, but they might try to obtain one. Since the 4th round is the 1st round on the 2nd day, Gosselin talks about how this is where a lot of mistakes ar corrected (as far as players that should have been selected) after teams have a night to evaluate what went down on Day 1.
Signing TO means they don't have to focus on getting "juice" for the offense from the draft. He also states how he sees TO helping Bledsoe's protection by being a go-to guy when Bledsoe gets in trouble, so having an inexperienced tackle isn't as big of an issue as it would have been without TO.
JACQUES TAYLOR'S THOUGHTS (Cowboy beat writer)
Agrees that the Cowboys will probably go defense in the 1st round - probably a pass rusher - OLB or DE - they want to be able to rush the pasher from both sides
Thinks if they get Lawson, they will get him to play LB and not DE - thinks they will take a LB of the pick at 18 - Lawson, Wimbley, Carpenter, etc.
Thinks the only player they would move up to get would be Winston Justice
MATT MOSELY'S THOUGHTS (Cowboys beat writer)
Thinks Carpenter is the guy the Cowboys are targeting (his dad played for Parcells, too)
Dale Hansen (the host) says Gosselin has hot on 88% of the first 100 players taken in the last three years.
Maybe he is talking about picking who will be the top 100 picked... it can't be what teams they went to. Gosselin says he has been doing this for 30 years, and he doesn't watch any film. He knows most everyone in the league, though, and talks to head coaches, GMs, personnel directors and scouts. He takes their opinions and tries to come up with a consensus board. It seems to me that he tries to predict where a player WILL go in the draft amd not where he SHOULD go. Anyway... here we go...GOSSELIN'S THOUGHTS
There are nine impact players - Bush, Ferguson, Williams, Hawk, Young, Leinart, Cutler, Davis, and Michael Huff (in no particular order, although Huff is the 9th out of those guys). After those nine, he sees about 9 of the next 11 picks going defense before a run on offensive players at the end of the round. Says there may be 19 defensive players taken in the 1st. He goes on to say the first day will be all about defense, and the second day will be all about offense.
Looking just at measurables, Mario Williams is the safest pick of the draft. AJ Hawk is probably the safest looking at everything.
On the QBs: Leinart - ready to start from Day 1; Cutler - strongest arm of the three, will be ready in 2007; Young - needs the most work developing a pocket presence, and until he develops that he will be an injury risk (like Vick) because he will take off and run - but he has the most upside - he thinks he is two years away like McNair was; he thinks all three of them will be gone by pick 10
He thinks Leinart = Carson Palmer and Cutler = Brett Favre, but has no idea what VY would equal and that he could rewrite the definition of a QB is he reaches his potential
On VY's throwing motion - he's probably not going to change it that much, so if you are a team and have a problem with it, don't draft him
CBs - he says it's the stongest position in the draft, and 4-6 will go in the 1st round
He says that 98% of mistakes made in the draft are from teams drafting on need instead of taking the best player
He thinks there will be teams that draft from 15-20 who will try to drop down into the lower part of the 1st round, but that it might be difficult to do so.
Lendale White probably goes to either Carolina or Pittsburgh
Santonio Holmes is the top WR, but he may not even go in the 1st round - says this is the weakest WR draft in 20 years
He thinks there are some solid OL, WR, and RB prospects who will be taken in the 3-5th round that got pushed lower because of teams taking defense.
Gosselin's Top 5
Houston - Bush - Best RB to come along in a long time
NO - Williams - best defensive player on the board - equates him to Michael Strahan
Tennessee - VY - franchise has patience as they have show when they drafted McNair - same player as McNair with bigger upside
NY Jets - Leinart - they need a OT like Ferguson, but they also need a QB to counteract Eli Manning publicity wise
GB - AJ Hawk - safe pick
JERRY JONES' THOUGHTS
Cowboys have been exploring both trading up and down in the 1st round
If the Cowboys keep the 18th pick, unless an offensive player they have graded high falls, it's a pretty good pick the Cowboys will go defense
Cowboys don't have a 4th round pick, but they might try to obtain one. Since the 4th round is the 1st round on the 2nd day, Gosselin talks about how this is where a lot of mistakes ar corrected (as far as players that should have been selected) after teams have a night to evaluate what went down on Day 1.
Signing TO means they don't have to focus on getting "juice" for the offense from the draft. He also states how he sees TO helping Bledsoe's protection by being a go-to guy when Bledsoe gets in trouble, so having an inexperienced tackle isn't as big of an issue as it would have been without TO.
JACQUES TAYLOR'S THOUGHTS (Cowboy beat writer)
Agrees that the Cowboys will probably go defense in the 1st round - probably a pass rusher - OLB or DE - they want to be able to rush the pasher from both sides
Thinks if they get Lawson, they will get him to play LB and not DE - thinks they will take a LB of the pick at 18 - Lawson, Wimbley, Carpenter, etc.
Thinks the only player they would move up to get would be Winston Justice
MATT MOSELY'S THOUGHTS (Cowboys beat writer)
Thinks Carpenter is the guy the Cowboys are targeting (his dad played for Parcells, too)
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Thanks for the recap. Gosselin and Gil Brandt have both been right at 90% of the first day picks, but as you said, that's not in any specific order (thus not so impressive).Thoughts:
No doubt this is a defense draft on the first day. It's what I don't like about the Polling Mock. We went through 3WRs and 5RBs in the first. Not gonna happen. I've said for months that there SHOULD be no WRs drafted in the first round, and that COULD happen.
There's no such thing as a can't miss player, but Hawk and Mario are as close as it gets in this draft.
It looks like a question I asked for months has been answered. Does a deep supply of OL in a deep draft decrease the demand? Apparently so. This will be huge for teams with bad OLs to scoop up 10 years starters as late as the 4th round.
No doubt 15-20 is the worst place to be in this draft. More like 18-25, imo, but that area has talent very similar to what's available at 35-50. In another thread I said there seemed like valid rumors about teams in the mid-20s doing a ton of negotiating. We know that's happening at the top of the draft. The bad news for those in the bad spot may be that no one is talking to them.
I like the comment about BPA. People get a little bent out of shape about it, "We won't take a DE. We have two good one!" Hogwash. You take the BPA at the top of the draft regardless of position, or regret later-- see Reggie Bush.
Jerry's been talking about trading up or down since before the Senior Bowl. I hope they work something out and find that fourth rounder (they gave to Philly of all teams).
Trading up for Justice would make my day.
Ridgelake
Footballguy
Good stuff. The Cowboy comments more or less fit what I have been guessing. Carpenter seems like he has come on late to be the guy that Dallas is targeting.
As for the 4th round pick Dallas traded. They used it to move up last year to take Canty. I'd say that was a pretty good use of a 4th round pick.
As for the 4th round pick Dallas traded. They used it to move up last year to take Canty. I'd say that was a pretty good use of a 4th round pick.
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
Rick Gosselin has always been one of the best at predicting the First Round.
doughboydeluxe
Footballguy
I would agree, and Jerry Jones said the same thing. He just said that he would like to try to get a 4th rounder this year, and that it's one of the things they would be looking for if they traded down in the 1st.
Old Man Raider
Footballguy
Was anyone else shocked to hear Gosselin claim he doesn't watch a single play on film? Just past the halfway mark in the webcast he talks about how he doesn't watch any games other than parts of some bowl games. Basically hasn't seen any of these guys ever play. He stated he has never watched Mario Williams play a single down.
Says all he does is gather together information from all his contacts, but doesn't study the actual play of the players himself at all. My jaw dropped, I couldn't believe it. I've followed his mock drafts for years now, consider him a "draft god"; guess it doesn't matter since he's so accurate, but when I heard his revelation, I was shocked.
Says all he does is gather together information from all his contacts, but doesn't study the actual play of the players himself at all. My jaw dropped, I couldn't believe it. I've followed his mock drafts for years now, consider him a "draft god"; guess it doesn't matter since he's so accurate, but when I heard his revelation, I was shocked.
doughboydeluxe
Footballguy
I was shocked, too, but I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing. He's not claiming to be an astute evaluator of talent, or predicting where a player SHOULD go, but instead he tries to predict where a player WILL go, and does a pretty good job of it.
Count me as someone not surprised as Gosselin's admission. Face it, he's not a professional talent evaluator, and neither is 99% of the people posting on this thread. So even if he were to watch a few games, why would that give him (or anyone else for that matter) any greater insight on the players than the people who do this for a living?
Urinal Mint
Footballguy
Manny Lawson or Bobby Carpenter wearing silver and blue? I'd be tickled to death.
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