The Way We Hear It — draft edition
Young Florida defenders should have stayed in school
By Nolan Nawrocki
April 19, 2007
Every year, there are talented players who surprisingly slide out of the first round or see their stock slip considerably, either because of team needs or questions surrounding the player.
We identified some who we thought could slip in last week’s mock draft, including Dwayne Jarrett, Marshawn Lynch and Jarvis Moss.
The way we hear it, another player in line for a potential freefall is Florida FS Reggie Nelson.
“He’s a very talented player,” one evaluator said. “I think he’s made nearly 20 visits (to NFL teams) now. Rarely do you see a player take so many trips. It tells you a couple things. One, there are questions about his intelligence. Teams want to put him on the board and see if he understands it. Two, a lot of teams think they will have a chance to draft him and everyone might get at least one pass at him. The last player I remember who took so many visits was Shawntae Spencer, who did not go to the Combine.”
Today, Nelson reportedly is meeting with the Jets, who hold the 25th pick. Nelson, however, will struggle to handle a defensive system like the Jets that asks defenders to learn a new game plan every week, and he will not be drafted by a team that uses a complex scheme. Given that teams expect their free safety to make coverage calls and line up the defense, there is a good chance that Nelson will not only be the fourth safety drafted, behind LaRon Landry, Michael Griffin and Brandon Meriweather, but that he will fall to the second round.
Intelligence issues in large part pushed Ko Simpson to the fourth round a year ago. It did not stop him from starting all but one game as a rookie in the Bills’ relatively simple scheme. It should be noted that Brian Dawkins, still one of the top safeties in the game today, entered the league with some similar questions. Nelson will likely have to go to team such as the Eagles, Bears or Colts that does not ask him to do a lot but play the deep middle. He is naturally instinctive but if he is not brought along slowly and is asked to do too much, he could struggle, and as a result, his value is diminishing in the eyes of evaluators.
With Nelson and fellow Gator Moss both positioned to potentially slip in the draft, underclassmen should take note. Team success does not necessarily equate to individual success. Two other Florida juniors who declared early for the draft — LB Brandon Siler and CB Ryan Smith — also likely will not be drafted on the first day.
Said one team, "I would not draft Siler. He is stiff, stiff, stiff. It's almost embarassing how good he thinks he is and how far off from reality he is. I felt bad for him that he left school. He does not have any idea."
Although Siler worked out well at the Combine and has size, production and a vocal on-field presence, he has a bad body, plays too straight-legged and straight-linish and his inflated opinion of himself has turned off NFL coaches. Many scouts graded him as a late-round talent, as they also did with Florida CB Ryan Smith.
As a result, do not be surprised if Florida underclassmen are taught a lesson like USC juniors were a year ago. Of the five juniors who declared early for the draft, including Reggie Bush, Winston Justice, LenDale White, Darnell Bing and Fred Matua, only Bush fit into the first round. The lesson to be learned is that players most often would benefit from returning to school.
is a big understatement.
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