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Darren McFadden. Projections like him (1 Viewer)

fozzy fosbourne

Footballguy
Everywhere I look this week, McFadden is projected somewhere in the low RB1, high RB2 range (10-14). As a McFadden owner, I feel like the rankings don't really factor in the meltdown potential that seems to be there. Does McFadden's seemingly low floor only scare the #### out of you when you are debating whether to start him and not when coming up with projections?

I look back at his first three weeks production and see some unnerving indicators of a guy who can poop the bed:

Week 1, he gets 93 total yards and a lost fumble. The yards seem promising but he probably didn't help your fantasy team much if you started him that week and Bush got the TD. He got 17 carries this game.

Week 2, he gets a touch down, but 55 total yards and 12 carries. We start seeing the potential for disaster here, if he doesn't get that TD (maybe Bush got it again), he's put up another meager week.

Week 3, it just keeps getting worse and worse, he has a 12 carry game with 3 fumbles (one lost) and 48 total yards. Pooped the bed.

He's got so many things going against him. Terrible QB that can kill a drive in a heartbeat, missing Gallery, another RB at his heels, and it's not like he's proven himself last season.

Does the matchup just overpower any question marks here? Or is there a pretty big risk with this guy any week like I'm imagining? What are your DMC thoughts after these 3 weeks?

 
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Everywhere I look this week, McFadden is projected somewhere in the low RB1, high RB2 range (10-14). As a McFadden owner, I feel like the rankings don't really factor in the meltdown potential that seems to be there. Does McFadden's seemingly low floor only scare the #### out of you when you are debating whether to start him and not when coming up with projections?I look back at his first three weeks production and see some unnerving indicators of a guy who can poop the bed: Week 1, he gets 93 total yards and a lost fumble. The yards seem promising but he probably didn't help your fantasy team much if you started him that week and Bush got the TD. He got 17 carries this game. Week 2, he gets a touch down, but 55 total yards and 12 carries. We start seeing the potential for disaster here, if he doesn't get that TD (maybe Bush got it again), he's put up another meager week.Week 3, it just keeps getting worse and worse, he has a 12 carry game with 3 fumbles (one lost) and 48 total yards. Pooped the bed.He's got so many things going against him. Terrible QB that can kill a drive in a heartbeat, missing Gallery, another RB at his heels, and it's not like he's proven himself last season.Does the matchup just overpower any question marks here? Or is there a pretty big risk with this guy any week like I'm imagining? What are your DMC thoughts after these 3 weeks?
Personally, I think you're lucky to have had the paltry production you describe. It's clear just watching the OAK running game that Bush is a better RB - he doesn't fumble, he moves the pile, he can catch, and he's a pretty decent blocker (although Huggy's got them both beat in that dept). I'm not trying to start a p#####g match with you - I just call it the way I see it on the field. With that said, DMAC must have pics of Cable in bed with a drag queen or something (now there's a visual) because he's obviously getting the coaching love. I think it must also be true that Al Vader favors DMAC or else he wouldnt be in there. So, the answer is I dont think DMAC improves on his current numbers - Jamarcus keeps the running game in check by throwing the ball to the wrong colored laundry - or to no one in particular - virtually guaranteeing 8 or 9 in the box on every play. DMAC is a borderline RB#3 IMO and will continue to be until either Jamarcus is benched or they get smart and run the ball 45 times a game.
 
The Raiders are definitely trying to get him the ball as a receiver, Russell has botched some of the short throws.

He's definitely in line to get the majority of red zone looks.

The Raiders are slavishly committed to the run in close games, and when they fall behind, McFadden can make noise as a receiver.

I know it hasn't come together yet, but the Texans safeties were woeful on their assignments in run defense vs. Tennessee and Jacksonville. They gave up long TD runs in all three of their games, and McFadden definitely has the ability to do that.

These are the reasons that went into my projection for McFadden this week.

 
really sick of this guy, I start him every week over Benson because of friggin projections and I get burned over and over. Not happening again, he's on my bench and Benson is a must start every week, AND THATS THAT!

 
really sick of this guy, I start him every week over Benson because of friggin projections and I get burned over and over. Not happening again, he's on my bench and Benson is a must start every week, AND THATS THAT!
I definitely advocate Benson over McFadden this week. Last week was difficult because the Steelers shut down Chris Johnson and Matt Forte in their first two games, and everything was going according to script until the fourth quarter.
 
The Raiders are definitely trying to get him the ball as a receiver, Russell has botched some of the short throws.He's definitely in line to get the majority of red zone looks.The Raiders are slavishly committed to the run in close games, and when they fall behind, McFadden can make noise as a receiver.I know it hasn't come together yet, but the Texans safeties were woeful on their assignments in run defense vs. Tennessee and Jacksonville. They gave up long TD runs in all three of their games, and McFadden definitely has the ability to do that.These are the reasons that went into my projection for McFadden this week.
Thanks for the response Sigmund, I just want to make it clear that I'm a subscriber, listen to the Audible on my commute every day, so obviously I love your guys' stuff and this is not meant to be antagonistic or anything. And it's definitely not just FBGs that have him up here, I think the aggregate rankings I looked at elsewhere had him at 10th RB this week. I'm just a little torn because my gut is running one way while the projections are running the other direction.Maybe it's more of a feast or famine type of projection? In that his high ceiling balances out what I see as a low floor. I get the same feeling from DMC as I do from WR3s basically.One thing that you mentioned though that I'm a little worried about myself actually are the goal line carries. After DMC coughed up a fumble in the redzone, I'm wondering if this will influence things going forward. Right now the only thing that I think is helping his value a bit is the fact that he has seen redzone carries, but I don't know if this is even in the Raiders' best interests.
 
The Raiders are definitely trying to get him the ball as a receiver, Russell has botched some of the short throws.He's definitely in line to get the majority of red zone looks.The Raiders are slavishly committed to the run in close games, and when they fall behind, McFadden can make noise as a receiver.I know it hasn't come together yet, but the Texans safeties were woeful on their assignments in run defense vs. Tennessee and Jacksonville. They gave up long TD runs in all three of their games, and McFadden definitely has the ability to do that.These are the reasons that went into my projection for McFadden this week.
Thanks for the response Sigmund, I just want to make it clear that I'm a subscriber, listen to the Audible on my commute every day, so obviously I love your guys' stuff and this is not meant to be antagonistic or anything. And it's definitely not just FBGs that have him up here, I think the aggregate rankings I looked at elsewhere had him at 10th RB this week. I'm just a little torn because my gut is running one way while the projections are running the other direction.Maybe it's more of a feast or famine type of projection? In that his high ceiling balances out what I see as a low floor. I get the same feeling from DMC as I do from WR3s basically.One thing that you mentioned though that I'm a little worried about myself actually are the goal line carries. After DMC coughed up a fumble in the redzone, I'm wondering if this will influence things going forward. Right now the only thing that I think is helping his value a bit is the fact that he has seen redzone carries, but I don't know if this is even in the Raiders' best interests.
No need to explain, Im always happy to give rationale behind projections.feast or famine is definitely a good way to describe the projection. If the Raiders running game gets on track, 100+ and 2 TDs for McFadden is well within reach (see his game vs KC before turf toe last year for an example). Last week, McFadden was running hot when he fumbled inside the 5. If he can hold on to that ball, I think they go right back to him, and he scores. Week 1, he also ran pretty well, and the Raiders run blockers moved the Chargers with ease. Week 2 was a bit worrisome, but after a complete dud of a game, McFadden had an ok RB2 week pretty much in one drive at the end of the game. What swayed me to put McFadden too high in week 2 was his performance in KC last year, the way the Raiders ran in week 1, and the way KC looked against the run vs Baltimore in week 1. What swayed me to put McFadden too high in week 3 was the way the Raiders played at home vs on the road so far + not being sure the Denver D was for real because Cincy was victimized by key Coles drops in week 1 or they would have had a better game, and Cleveland (Denver's week 2 opponent), is well, Cleveland. Obviously we know Denver is a good D (watch Dallas hang 35 on them this weekend now that Ive said that).So this week, its Houston's inability to stop running backs at the third level. All it takes is McFadden getting there once on a reception or run, and you have your good week on that one play.And next week, I'll probably be explaining myself once again... I just want y'all to know that a lot of thought and film study goes into these projections, not just throwing numbers at the wall.
 
while I think McFadden has the higher upside against Houston, I am leaning towards Moreno this week vs Dallas (and I am wondering why all the projections have McFadden so much higher than Moreno)... I just have a feeling he is the safer play that could potentially get 20 carries and a score, and I don't want to lose a week where I have the upperhand over my opponent because I got hit with a famine

It would be a huge boost to my team though if McFadden lived up to potential. Is there any hope that Garcia would go back to Oakland to start? :-)

 
Sigmund Bloom said:
UTLonghorn31 said:
It would be a huge boost to my team though if McFadden lived up to potential. Is there any hope that Garcia would go back to Oakland to start? :-)
Nope, he asked for his release. That bridge is burned.
Yeah, I am well aware that he asked for his release... it doesn't appear that the Raiders fought with him over it though... Anyway, Russell is so painful to watch... if anyone would benefit from the wildcat, it would be the Raiders... Russell could be more useful throwing blocks on smaller DBs for McFadden and Bush... McFadden may be an upgrade in accuracy...
 
I'm frustrated with DMC as well, but I'll consider starting him this week.

There's alot of negatives, but he's the starting RB on a team that can and will run the ball. He will be involved in the passing game and will be involved around the goal-line.

He also has a dream match-up this week.

If someone owns DMC and has played him during the 1st 3 weeks, I have no idea why they'd give up on him this week. If does nothing against HOU, then we've got major problems.

 
Picked up coffe and starting him over Dmac. I am having a lack of trust in Dmac for alot of reasons. Bush gets alot of carries. Teams stack the box becasue they cant pass. After all the fumbles I expect even more carries for Bush. Also Houston has the ability to score alot and it could be a blowout and the running game abandoned. I ofcourse hope he does well so that when coffe goes back to being a backup I can start Dmac but I am 0-3 becasue in part due to his productiuon ( I lost all three by 4 or less points and could have one with a good game from my #2 ) . I cant riskk 0-4 on him. But for all Dmac owners who dont have an option like Coffe to go to I will be rooting for Dmac to get 120 yards and a TD.

 
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Picked up coffe and starting him over Dmac. I am having a lack of trust in Dmac for alot of reasons. Bush gets alot of carries. Teams stack the box becasue they cant pass. After all the fumbles I expect even more carries for Bush. Also Houston has the ability to score alot and it could be a blowout and the running game abandoned. I ofcourse hope he does well so that when coffe goes back to being a backup I can start Dmac but I am 0-3 becasue in part due to his productiuon ( I lost all three by 4 or less points and could have one with a good game from my #2 ) . I cant riskk 0-4 on him. But for all Dmac owners who dont have an option like Coffe to go to I will be rooting for Dmac to get 120 yards and a TD.
Definitely Coffee over D-Mac this week. ;)
 
Sigmund Bloom said:
fozzy fosbourne said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
The Raiders are definitely trying to get him the ball as a receiver, Russell has botched some of the short throws.He's definitely in line to get the majority of red zone looks.The Raiders are slavishly committed to the run in close games, and when they fall behind, McFadden can make noise as a receiver.I know it hasn't come together yet, but the Texans safeties were woeful on their assignments in run defense vs. Tennessee and Jacksonville. They gave up long TD runs in all three of their games, and McFadden definitely has the ability to do that.These are the reasons that went into my projection for McFadden this week.
Thanks for the response Sigmund, I just want to make it clear that I'm a subscriber, listen to the Audible on my commute every day, so obviously I love your guys' stuff and this is not meant to be antagonistic or anything. And it's definitely not just FBGs that have him up here, I think the aggregate rankings I looked at elsewhere had him at 10th RB this week. I'm just a little torn because my gut is running one way while the projections are running the other direction.Maybe it's more of a feast or famine type of projection? In that his high ceiling balances out what I see as a low floor. I get the same feeling from DMC as I do from WR3s basically.One thing that you mentioned though that I'm a little worried about myself actually are the goal line carries. After DMC coughed up a fumble in the redzone, I'm wondering if this will influence things going forward. Right now the only thing that I think is helping his value a bit is the fact that he has seen redzone carries, but I don't know if this is even in the Raiders' best interests.
No need to explain, Im always happy to give rationale behind projections.feast or famine is definitely a good way to describe the projection. If the Raiders running game gets on track, 100+ and 2 TDs for McFadden is well within reach (see his game vs KC before turf toe last year for an example). Last week, McFadden was running hot when he fumbled inside the 5. If he can hold on to that ball, I think they go right back to him, and he scores. Week 1, he also ran pretty well, and the Raiders run blockers moved the Chargers with ease. Week 2 was a bit worrisome, but after a complete dud of a game, McFadden had an ok RB2 week pretty much in one drive at the end of the game. What swayed me to put McFadden too high in week 2 was his performance in KC last year, the way the Raiders ran in week 1, and the way KC looked against the run vs Baltimore in week 1. What swayed me to put McFadden too high in week 3 was the way the Raiders played at home vs on the road so far + not being sure the Denver D was for real because Cincy was victimized by key Coles drops in week 1 or they would have had a better game, and Cleveland (Denver's week 2 opponent), is well, Cleveland. Obviously we know Denver is a good D (watch Dallas hang 35 on them this weekend now that Ive said that).So this week, its Houston's inability to stop running backs at the third level. All it takes is McFadden getting there once on a reception or run, and you have your good week on that one play.And next week, I'll probably be explaining myself once again... I just want y'all to know that a lot of thought and film study goes into these projections, not just throwing numbers at the wall.
Sigmund, I love your work on the audible. I truly believe that there is a lot of thought that goes in to your projections. I always look at your second opinion projections each week, and often your projections are the deciding factor when I have a tough decision to make. But you have had a big mancrush on McFadden this year. I heard you pushing him hard in the preseason. Unfortunately, I think you are wrong on this one. I didn't like McFadden in the preseason, and I like him less now. This is a hideous offense. You are right, McFadden could get past the second level for a big play this week. But he is terribly inconsistent. He has to get that one big play or he is a waste each week. If I had McFadden, and he had a decent week, I'd be in a big hurry to unload him in a trade. It just isn't going to happen for him this year. I have my doubts whether he will ever amount to much in the NFL.
 
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Sigmund Bloom said:
fozzy fosbourne said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
The Raiders are definitely trying to get him the ball as a receiver, Russell has botched some of the short throws.He's definitely in line to get the majority of red zone looks.The Raiders are slavishly committed to the run in close games, and when they fall behind, McFadden can make noise as a receiver.I know it hasn't come together yet, but the Texans safeties were woeful on their assignments in run defense vs. Tennessee and Jacksonville. They gave up long TD runs in all three of their games, and McFadden definitely has the ability to do that.These are the reasons that went into my projection for McFadden this week.
Thanks for the response Sigmund, I just want to make it clear that I'm a subscriber, listen to the Audible on my commute every day, so obviously I love your guys' stuff and this is not meant to be antagonistic or anything. And it's definitely not just FBGs that have him up here, I think the aggregate rankings I looked at elsewhere had him at 10th RB this week. I'm just a little torn because my gut is running one way while the projections are running the other direction.Maybe it's more of a feast or famine type of projection? In that his high ceiling balances out what I see as a low floor. I get the same feeling from DMC as I do from WR3s basically.One thing that you mentioned though that I'm a little worried about myself actually are the goal line carries. After DMC coughed up a fumble in the redzone, I'm wondering if this will influence things going forward. Right now the only thing that I think is helping his value a bit is the fact that he has seen redzone carries, but I don't know if this is even in the Raiders' best interests.
No need to explain, Im always happy to give rationale behind projections.feast or famine is definitely a good way to describe the projection. If the Raiders running game gets on track, 100+ and 2 TDs for McFadden is well within reach (see his game vs KC before turf toe last year for an example). Last week, McFadden was running hot when he fumbled inside the 5. If he can hold on to that ball, I think they go right back to him, and he scores. Week 1, he also ran pretty well, and the Raiders run blockers moved the Chargers with ease. Week 2 was a bit worrisome, but after a complete dud of a game, McFadden had an ok RB2 week pretty much in one drive at the end of the game. What swayed me to put McFadden too high in week 2 was his performance in KC last year, the way the Raiders ran in week 1, and the way KC looked against the run vs Baltimore in week 1. What swayed me to put McFadden too high in week 3 was the way the Raiders played at home vs on the road so far + not being sure the Denver D was for real because Cincy was victimized by key Coles drops in week 1 or they would have had a better game, and Cleveland (Denver's week 2 opponent), is well, Cleveland. Obviously we know Denver is a good D (watch Dallas hang 35 on them this weekend now that Ive said that).So this week, its Houston's inability to stop running backs at the third level. All it takes is McFadden getting there once on a reception or run, and you have your good week on that one play.And next week, I'll probably be explaining myself once again... I just want y'all to know that a lot of thought and film study goes into these projections, not just throwing numbers at the wall.
Sigmund, I love your work on the audible. I truly believe that there is a lot of thought that goes in to your projections. I always look at your second opinion projections each week, and often your projections are the deciding factor when I have a tough decision to make. But you have had a big mancrush on McFadden this year. I heard you pushing him hard in the preseason. Unfortunately, I think you are wrong on this one. I didn't like McFadden in the preseason, and I like him less now. This is a hideous offense. You are right, McFadden could get past the second level for a big play this week. But he is terribly inconsistent. He has to get that one big play or he is a waste each week. If I had McFadden, and he had a decent week, I'd be in a big hurry to unload him in a trade. It just isn't going to happen for him this year. I have my doubts whether he will ever amount to much in the NFL.
I'll cop to that - I was swayed by how the Raiders ran the ball last year even though they were a losing team, how Russell's game really came together in December, and the Raiders clear plans to get McFadden the ball in space as a receiver, which would get his speed into play a lot more often.I remain hopeful just because Russell either has to get better, or we'll see a change, and the offense will improve either way. It truly can not get worse than it was in the last two games, short of taking knees or punting on first-down.
 
gnarboots11 said:
really sick of this guy, I start him every week over Benson because of friggin projections and I get burned over and over. Not happening again, he's on my bench and Benson is a must start every week, AND THATS THAT!
Umm...don't be sick of him...kind of your own issue if you are starting a guy simply because of projections that someone else has made up.
 
I'm starting him this week in one of my leagues by default(no choice due to byes) and I'm praying that their running game shows any sign of a pulse. If they can't vs. the Texans, then it's probably "over" for the foreseeable for McFadden/Bush. Even if he goes off this week, McFadden's back on my bench until Russell is on the Raiders'. That guy is just flat-out destroying any semblance of value for that offense.

I'd love to flip McFadden in the league I have him in, but most owners aren't interested in buying him(totally understandable). I highly doubt one big game vs. the woeful Texans D will change that, but I will certainly be exploring the possibility if he goes off.

 
RamMan said:
I just call it the way I see it on the field. With that said, DMAC must have pics of Cable in bed with a drag queen or something (now there's a visual) because he's obviously getting the coaching love. I think it must also be true that Al Vader favors DMAC or else he wouldnt be in there.
Nice visual there. So if this is the case I wonder what Matt Forte has on Lovie Smith, must be pretty bad since he gets twice the carries and half the ypc of Mcfadden. Forte must have pictures of Lovie dressed up as a drag queen with the Bears owners wife!
 
I would love to see the Raiders use more of the wildcat with McFadden. It would be more of a duel threat. McFadden would have more space ro run, plus the DBS would respect him more as a passer than Russell.

 
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I would love to see the Raiders use more of the wildcat with McFadden. It would be more of a duel threat. McFadden would have more space ro run, plus the DBS would respect him more as a passer than Russell.
I agree he ran similar packages in college and looked great, it also takes the ball out of JR's hands which we all know is a problem. I Have a feeling this is going to be his coming out party this year again Houston who obvisouly has issues stopping backs that make it into the second level, but to bench S jax who in my opinion has a bad match up against San Fran... Its tempting.
 
I remain hopeful just because Russell either has to get better, or we'll see a change, and the offense will improve either way. It truly can not get worse than it was in the last two games, short of taking knees or punting on first-down.
:goodposting:
 
i have DMac and currently have him starting for me. My other RB is Ray Rice, would you bench Rice or Dmac for Coffee? or neither?

 
Sigmund Bloom said:
So this week, its Houston's inability to stop running backs at the third level. All it takes is McFadden getting there once on a reception or run, and you have your good week on that one play.

And next week, I'll probably be explaining myself once again... I just want y'all to know that a lot of thought and film study goes into these projections, not just throwing numbers at the wall.
Something to consider by cross-referencing two threads using this big play theory....courtesy of buckna in the Texans thread:

If you take out the big plays (and I know that can skew the stats and isn't a good picture), but the run defense hasn't been too bad on all the other plays:

TJ - 39 yarder - 3.58ypc without it (20 touches)

CJ3 - 57 & 91 yarder - 3.5ypc without those (25 touches)

MJD - 61 yarder - 2.64 ypc without it (27 touches)

I honestly have no clue if those numbers give us a better idea of how the defense is playing on the whole, but at least it suggests to me that they have the capability to play solid run defense.
I added the touches opposing RB's had against HOU to get their big plays. McFadden only has 14 touches the past few weeks, so his likelihood to bust a long one obviously goes way down if he isn't getting the same number of opportunities that others RB's facing the Texans have received to generate their big plays.Expecting McFadden to have a big day because of what others have done against Houston doesn't mean anything if McFadden doesn't get a similar number of chances. On average those RB's got 24 touches vs. Houston, so far this year McFadden is getting less than 16 per game. Those numbers are the critical ones to look at when considering this match-up for McFadden IMHO.

 
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McFadden will always be atleast a decent flex option for me, because he has big play ability. Bush may be the better back in terms of moving the pile, but the Raiders don't need the pile to be moved. They need to score, and they only way they can do that is with big plays right now.

Plus my league gives bonus points for long TDs :goodposting:

 
Expecting McFadden to have a big day because of what others have done against Houston doesn't mean anything if McFadden doesn't get a similar number of chances. On average those RB's got 24 touches vs. Houston, so far this year McFadden is getting less than 16 per game. Those numbers are the critical ones to look at when considering this match-up for McFadden IMHO.
This doesn't mean a whole lot... I mean, did those other RBs get their longest runs within 16 carries? Is this "critical," anyway?McFadden had 87 yards on 17 touches against Houston last year. After his poor start to the season I'd be satisfied with that this week, but I expect more rush attempts for him.And even so, if you allow big plays every week you are a bad run defense. It's not like Sanchez, Collins or Garrard was spreading them out in any of those games.
 
McFadden had 87 yards on 17 touches against Houston last year. After his poor start to the season I'd be satisfied with that this week, but I expect more rush attempts for him.
Per the bolded: Why? Especially considering he fumbled three times last week.
 
Right now he's on my bench for Week 4, behind Grant vs. Minny and Moreno vs. Dallas. It's tempting to start McFadden against such a juicy matchup, but he just has not proven anything yet this year.

 
H.K. said:
Chicago Hooligan said:
McFadden had 87 yards on 17 touches against Houston last year. After his poor start to the season I'd be satisfied with that this week, but I expect more rush attempts for him.
Per the bolded: Why? Especially considering he fumbled three times last week.
Fargas had 22 in last year's game, clearly not happening now. McFadden has more than all other Raiders together in 2009.
 
i have DMac and currently have him starting for me. My other RB is Ray Rice, would you bench Rice or Dmac for Coffee? or neither?
Same choice w/o coffee. I feel a little better about Rice because his floor is much higher. DMac could put up a bagel. I don't need a home run or strike out, I need a guaranteed double.
 
gnarboots11 said:
really sick of this guy, I start him every week over Benson because of friggin projections and I get burned over and over. Not happening again, he's on my bench and Benson is a must start every week, AND THATS THAT!
Benson is projected much higher than McFadden this week, so if you really want to get independent and stick it to the projections, go with McFadden!
 
McFadden is going to fumble himself into obscurity.

The thing is, they can make excuses for a mega-talented RB all day long -- sore quad, injuries to the offensive line, defenses stuffing the box, tough schedule, etc -- but fumbling is a death sentence. End of story.

No matter how much $$$ you make, no matter how many Heisman runner-up finishes you had, if you fumble you won't play.

 
:thumbup: I bumped McFadden down to 20 in my projections. Wasnt far enough. still a lot of time left in this game. but... :hot:

I did at least have Sims-Walker in my top 10 WR.

 
They played Fargas on that last drive, which is not a good sign. If you have three guys sharing that small pie there isn't enough for anyone.

 
I'm dumping Mcfadden onto the waiver wire after this game! I want nothing to do with him or the raiders!! I went back and forth on whether to start Mcfadden or D. Brown. Of course I should have started Brown!!

 
:unsure: I bumped McFadden down to 20 in my projections. Wasnt far enough. still a lot of time left in this game. but... :lmao: I did at least have Sims-Walker in my top 10 WR.
Well, as I mentioned in the beginning, everyone had him projected pretty high, at least a RB2, some had him as low end RB1.I think this points out the fallacy in the conventional way of doing projections though -- their needs to be some input on the risk that one sees in a projection. Right now projections just give a number that the person expects, but don't account for the expected potential variance, and I think that's pretty important when setting your rosters.For example, there are tons of projections where a possessions receiver and a deep threat come out nearly even, but the possession receiver's floor seems much higher, but might have a lower ceiling. This stuff seems important when setting rosters, at least to me, I've seemingly missed on every feast or famine roster start this season, hehe sigh.
 
Anyone else make the "shark move" and pick up McFadden and play him today because he was going against the worst run defense in the league. I was planning on shipping him to another team after his big game today. Now he will just go on the WW.

 
I knew I should have stayed away from McFadden. This is why I try to avoid picking players on terrible teams. :thumbdown:

 

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