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I BN'd him after Game 1... and I'm a Jets fan. I was let down last yr and the let down continued.
I'm sorry, and I am sure you guys do your homework. But you pimped Kerry Rhodes last year, and he busted. You pimped him again this year, and so far it's bustola. No more Kool Aid for me.
Rhodes wasn't bad for me in my big play league last season and 3 weeks so far in 2008 I am not giving up. He has not done great in tackle heavy leagues though. After giving him the huge contract extention he should be in getting more opportunity one would think.(edit: I only read the thread and it posted that I posted to it for some reason )
I wouldn't call Rhodes a bust in 2007. I checked two of my leagues with two different scoring methods and he was 10-15 in both.2008 is a different story altogether.
Dude... u must play in "Big Play" leagues... I play in Tackle heavy league, he avg between #20 - #25 Saftey!!!! nevermind DB, just sorted by Safteies and he came up in the 20s. Thats a bust when he was either #2 or 3 DB taken.I can't hold on any longer... like Jene said, w/ the play of the front the tackle opps just aren't there and the Jets aren't putting anyone in position to throw the ball.
In our league, he was DB #30. But even if he was #15, you want to remember that FBG's had him rated as #1 in 2007 preseason. He busted, and I'm not drinking the Kool Aid any more.
I drafted Rhodes in my dynasty league as my 2nd defensive player off the board last year (First was Peppers who hasn't done nothing ever since) Part of that was the high rankings he got here... Ok it didn't work out like planned. It wasn't too bad since it's a big play league. Yet this same site I have picked up other DBs would have overcome that. Marvin White and Yeremiah Bell. While Rhodes hasn't panned out, I was able to nab others to make up for it. Predicting what guys are going to do in IDPs for the upcoming season ain't easy. Nobody is perfect.
This certainly does not hold true for players like Demeco Ryans.
never said it's a 100%, but you will find way more cases of defensive "studs" losing their values within a year than offensive studs. not saying that some don't carry over, but especially on the defensive side, it's a lot tougher to carry over.
So why even bother creating detailed projections for IDP players? There has to be some value in this exercise correct?
This isn't true. I can't remember if I posted it or not, but I took a look at the percentage of players at each position that finished in the top ranks of their position over the past five years. In most cases, IDPs exhibited at least the same year-to-year consistency as the offensive players.I'll try to find that data sometime this weekend.
Jene, I'd like to see that, in my findings, what people consider Studs today in IDP, are more often than offensive players, not studs tomorrow. Please post that. I guess it is open to debate on what you and I define as a stud, but with that said, if the data proves I'm wrong, I have no problem admitting it.I always try to avoid situations like 3-4 in the Parcells type defenses, try to get the WLB in Tampa2, etc. rather than focusing on the player itself. Too many things change on a year to year basis, in my personal opinion schemes rule at the end of the day.
I don't disagree with the scheme issue whatsoever, as you know. Just the belief defensive players don't necessarily hold value as long as offensive players.Hmmmm.....I found this in my offseason files, but I can't find it by Forum search. Maybe I wrote it and never posted it. Anyway, this may be a Honda
, but here it is. It does show that fantasy starters are more consistent from year-to-year on offense than defense, though how significant the differences are might be up for debate -- except at DB.__________________________The second installment in the Fun With Defensive Statistics series, which suggested that the year 2007 was a major aberration in defensive back production, prompted this third thread. A post in that thread by Toads raises an interesting question.Why does the generally accepted roster management of defensive backs (slough them during the draft, don’t overpay in trades, attack the waiver wire to find the hot hand) fly in the face of the supply-demand method of rostering nearly every other fake football position?Should we be targeting the rarest of animals – the consistent top performing DB – and prioritizing those players in our roster planning? Or should we continue to focus on lower tier RBs, WRs and LBs as so often happens? Is the slough DBs a valid default draft strategy at all?Consider the following charts:
Percentage of Players (Top 36 LB/DB, 24 DL) Who Repeat Their Performance the Following Year 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 5YR AVGDL 38% 50% 42% 63% 50% 48.60%LB 50% 47% 50% 53% 36% 47.20%DB 28% 33% 33% 31% 36% 32.20%Percentage of Players (Top 36 LB/DB, 24 DL) Who Repeat Their Performance Over the Following Two Years (Three Seasons Total) 2005-07 2004-06 2003-05 AVG 3YR CUMUL PCTDL 29% 17% 25% 23.67%LB 22% 25% 28% 25.00%DB 17% 11% 6% 11.33%Percentage of Players (Top 12 QB, 24 RB, 36 WR, 12 TE/TDST) Who Repeat Their Performance the Following Year 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 5YR AVGQB 58% 42% 50% 58% 75% 56.60%RB 58% 50% 63% 54% 63% 57.60%WR 53% 56% 58% 50% 50% 53.40%TE 58% 75% 50% 42% 58% 56.60%TDST 58% 25% 50% 33% 58% 44.80%and that comes back to what i was saying before, add palyers to a scheme, Willis is still a stud, no doubt, but will he match last year's numbers with a healthy Lawson, addition of Justin Smith, addition of Spikes, I just don't see it happening.....same with NYJ Harris. Personally, I don't see as much of a drop off WR/RB numbers as you do in the defensive players, at least from a percentage standpoint.Jene, looks like an interesting read, got my bedtime material for Sunday night, thanks.
