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Deep Dynasty Rookie QB Discussion: After the big four (2 Viewers)

Clifford

Footballguy
After the four QBs with obvious shots (Manziel, Bridgewater, Bortles, and Carr) where are you guys seeing value?

Logan Thomas looks like a Terrell Pryor clone to me. Bad zip on the ball, questionable accuracy, nice feet. http://youtu.be/mVHSUY8u_RY

Garrapolo I don't see ever starting, unless he literally waits until Brady retires. Just don't see him getting a chance in NE. See Mallett. http://youtu.be/WFNyZowRR4I

McCarron all depends on Dalton essentially falling on his face. Dalton's chokes in the playoffs won't outweigh his in-season stats, and I think unless he absolutely craters McCarron gets no shot in 2014 or 2015. If Dalton does absolutely crater I could see McCarron a few late-season starts, but he would have to amaze to keep Cincy from drafting a QB high in that situation. I see his ceiling as Alex Smith. http://youtu.be/1LuKU3P_McM

Mettenberger has the best chance of these QBs as Locker is not going to magically change into a different player, and he has the arm to win in the NFL. However he's hurt and that does not help, and neither does being drafted in the sixth. Another guy who could see late season starts but would have to amaze to keep his team from drafting another QB high. http://youtu.be/MnPSNeB4pXI

Fales would be a lock to start if reports of Clausen having a McCown-esque resurgence under Trestman were not dominating OTA reports. I think if/when Cutler goes down this year it will be Clausen's first shot, and he will have a short leash, so would be hard to reap fantasy value, and that's already counting on a Cutler injury which I suppose isn't necessarily a lock. http://youtu.be/riq0GQOefMA

Tom Savage has only Fitz to fight off but is there anything to actually recommend this guy? Taken in the fourth and I can't find anything particularly special about him. Film against Florida State was terrible: http://youtu.be/wQ2PVx3SZcA

Anyone I am missing including in this list? I'm not seeing a single guy here I would even say is a surefire starter at some point for more than a few games. If I had to put money on one it would be Mettenberger just because he has a good arm and his competition is incredibly weak.

 
The answer here is Garappolo. And after that I don't see anything to even waste a roster spot on in start 2 QB leagues. 4th round and later QBs have such long odds at making an impact that I'll let someone else waste that spot.

 
Palmer is old and immobile. I think Thomas gets a start or two soon. Weapons galore as well.
Things going for Thomas:

- elite tools you can't teach

- has probably the best coach for QB's in the NFL

- ton of weapons in the offense

If there was ever a place for "The Wolverine" to succeed, it's AZ.

 
Took Savage with a late 4th in a 2QB league as a hopeful guy. Not much competition so we should know relatively soon (compared to the others) if he can play or not.

 
The answer here is Garappolo. And after that I don't see anything to even waste a roster spot on in start 2 QB leagues. 4th round and later QBs have such long odds at making an impact that I'll let someone else waste that spot.
Where and how do you see him starting?

 
Palmer is old and immobile. I think Thomas gets a start or two soon. Weapons galore as well.
Things going for Thomas:

- elite tools you can't teach

- has probably the best coach for QB's in the NFL

- ton of weapons in the offense

If there was ever a place for "The Wolverine" to succeed, it's AZ.
Elite tools? Are you just referring to physical characteristics/combine numbers? I don't think there is anything elite about him as a passer.

 
Palmer is old and immobile. I think Thomas gets a start or two soon. Weapons galore as well.
Things going for Thomas:

- elite tools you can't teach

- has probably the best coach for QB's in the NFL

- ton of weapons in the offense

If there was ever a place for "The Wolverine" to succeed, it's AZ.
Elite tools? Are you just referring to physical characteristics/combine numbers? I don't think there is anything elite about him as a passer.
Yes, he has the physical characteristics of an elite QB. His problem is all mental.

 
Palmer is old and immobile. I think Thomas gets a start or two soon. Weapons galore as well.
Things going for Thomas:

- elite tools you can't teach

- has probably the best coach for QB's in the NFL

- ton of weapons in the offense

If there was ever a place for "The Wolverine" to succeed, it's AZ.
Elite tools? Are you just referring to physical characteristics/combine numbers? I don't think there is anything elite about him as a passer.
Here is one guy's opinion

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-case-for-logan-thomas-as-nfl-draft-s-most-intriguing-qb-prospect----more-pro-ready-than-cam-newton-was-in-2011--214727831-nfl.html

 
His game film against Virginia wasn't that great. I thought Mettenberger looked better against a tougher defense.

For Garropolo, Even in a 2 Qb dynasty with deep rosters, I have trouble spending an early draft pick on a guy I pretty much know won't see significant time for another two years minimum. Plus they still have Mallett don't they?

Thomas probably has more potential due to the likelihood of seeing the field this year.

Honestly of all the film Fales looked the sharpest but definitely the most limited in terms of arm strength.

 
Palmer is old and immobile. I think Thomas gets a start or two soon. Weapons galore as well.
Things going for Thomas:

- elite tools you can't teach

- has probably the best coach for QB's in the NFL

- ton of weapons in the offense

If there was ever a place for "The Wolverine" to succeed, it's AZ.
Elite tools? Are you just referring to physical characteristics/combine numbers? I don't think there is anything elite about him as a passer.
Yes, he has the physical characteristics of an elite QB. His problem is all mental.
He scored higher than Bortles, Bridgewater and Carr on the Wonderlic. So you'd have to think he at least has the potential to improve on the mental aspects of the game with a great coach like Arians. He's also bigger than Bortles and faster than Manziel.

I take Logan Thomas for what he is - He's a big tall QB with tons of speed and a cannon arm. He's lacking in polish and comes into the NFC West which is know for it's tough defense. He has a great coach and really good weapons around him including multiple first round picks as receiving options. His problem is that he is behind a former #1 overall pick at QB and he's going to take some time to develop. There is great coaching and leadership on the team and I didn't see anything other than an article talking about his good character and maturity.

 
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Palmer is old and immobile. I think Thomas gets a start or two soon. Weapons galore as well.
Things going for Thomas:

- elite tools you can't teach

- has probably the best coach for QB's in the NFL

- ton of weapons in the offense

If there was ever a place for "The Wolverine" to succeed, it's AZ.
Elite tools? Are you just referring to physical characteristics/combine numbers? I don't think there is anything elite about him as a passer.
Yes, he has the physical characteristics of an elite QB. His problem is all mental.
He scored higher than Bortles, Bridgewater and Carr on the Wonderlic. So you'd have to think he at least has the potential to improve on the mental aspects of the game with a great coach like Arians. He's also bigger than Bortles and faster than Manziel. I take Logan Thomas for what he is - He's a big tall QB with tons of speed and a cannon arm. He's lacking in polish and comes into the NFC West which is know for it's tough defense. He has a great coach and really good weapons around him including multiple first round picks as receiving options. His problem is that he is behind a former #1 overall pick at QB and he's going to take some time to develop. There is great coaching and leadership on the team and I didn't see anything other than an article talking about his good character and maturity.
Weaknesses from his NFL.com draft profile:

Plateaued as a sophomore. Uneven performance. Inconsistent footwork and mechanics. Shoddy ball placement. Still developing touch and deep-ball accuracy. Needs to quicken his eyes and expand his field vision. Needs to learn to protect himself -- is not elusive and represents a big target to defenders. Struggled in big games, including a nightmare performance against Alabama. Too careless with the football -- 39 INTs and 23 fumbles as a starter. Career 50-percent passer on third down.
 
No doubt there are negatives. But you can teach a smart guy how to read a defense and get rid of the ball. You cannot teach him to be taller, bigger, and faster. You can't teach them how to throw hard. They either can or can't. I'm interested to see what Arians does with him for sure.

 
I'd say Jimmy G.

Has some terrific attributes and gets the benefit of going "old school" and learning from the bench for a while. Brady is getting up there and Jimmy is under the umbrella of a top organization. All pieces of the pies accounted for, I like his combination of opportunities better than the rest, plus you know that even if it took 3 seasons, the Patriots aren't the type of team to leave the cupboard bare. Gronk will still be young and you have to figure they won't be a bare bones team looking for one guy to do it all.

 
No doubt there are negatives. But you can teach a smart guy how to read a defense and get rid of the ball. You cannot teach him to be taller, bigger, and faster. You can't teach them how to throw hard. They either can or can't. I'm interested to see what Arians does with him for sure.
You can't teach them to be more accurate either. The problem with Thomas is two-fold: He's inaccurate AND he had a poor TD/INT ratio.

 
No doubt there are negatives. But you can teach a smart guy how to read a defense and get rid of the ball. You cannot teach him to be taller, bigger, and faster. You can't teach them how to throw hard. They either can or can't. I'm interested to see what Arians does with him for sure.
You can't teach them to be more accurate either. The problem with Thomas is two-fold: He's inaccurate AND he had a poor TD/INT ratio.
:goodposting:

And he never learned to get far through his progressions. Instead, he could just run if his first or second read wasn't open.

 
I was surprised to see Thomas drafted, much less as high as he went. Guy is a poor man's Boller/Locker/Whitehurst. First round physical talent. UDFA mental talent. I can't remember a player of this ilk becoming successful in recent years and I doubt he'll buck the trend. You just can't teach an athlete to play QB. If I had to take a shot on a cheap-ish rookie QB (excluding Garoppolo), I'd probably roll with Fales or Wenning. Fales in particular had some very impressive games at SJSU, albeit with some warts and some bad games as well.

 
No doubt there are negatives. But you can teach a smart guy how to read a defense and get rid of the ball. You cannot teach him to be taller, bigger, and faster. You can't teach them how to throw hard. They either can or can't. I'm interested to see what Arians does with him for sure.
You can't teach them to be more accurate either. The problem with Thomas is two-fold: He's inaccurate AND he had a poor TD/INT ratio.
I think those things are definitely tied to one another. I also think you can teach accuracy. QBs rarely max out their completion percentages early in their careers.

 
Huge fan of Fales. Look at the options in CHI... even without Marshall, at some point...

Cutler is uneven and uninterested at times. Josh McCown proved even an average journeyman could put up excellent numbers in the Trestman system. Fales may not have all the "elite measurables", but he doesn't need to have them with what Trestman needs out of his QB.

I drafted Thomas in a league as a flyer just based on opportunity alone. I think he has flaws, for sure, but some could be corrected with proper instruction.

I wanted to grab Murray in a league but missed out. I think he has some opportunity, and would flourish in Reid's system in KC. Alex Smith is nothing special, and the Chiefs may figure this out sooner rather than later.... in which case Murray could rise up the charts in a hurry.

 
I was surprised to see Thomas drafted, much less as high as he went. Guy is a poor man's Boller/Locker/Whitehurst. First round physical talent. UDFA mental talent. I can't remember a player of this ilk becoming successful in recent years and I doubt he'll buck the trend. You just can't teach an athlete to play QB. If I had to take a shot on a cheap-ish rookie QB (excluding Garoppolo), I'd probably roll with Fales or Wenning. Fales in particular had some very impressive games at SJSU, albeit with some warts and some bad games as well.
He's a late round flier for sure but he is still learning the QB position after going to college as a TE. If anything he's a poor man's Tannehill.

 
He had three years as a starter and by the end of that time he still wasn't even a good college QB, IMO. Just find it really, really unlikely that the light will suddenly turn on in the NFL. I tend to avoid "project" QBs like the plague and I can't say I've ever regretted it. Not all good college QBs become great NFL QBs, but very few great NFL QBs weren't good college QBs. Avoiding all of the "tools" guys like Whitehurst, Locker, and Boller seems to weed out a lot of DOA busts.

 
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Where is Murray in this conversation? Murray and Garropolo are easily the next two in my book.

I'm an acc football fan and saw a good bit of Logan Thomas. He just sucks. I'm sorry, but he's not a good QB. Good athlete, good kid, bad QB.

 
He had three years as a starter and by the end of that time he still wasn't even a good college QB, IMO. Just find it really, really unlikely that the light will suddenly turn on in the NFL. I tend to avoid "project" QBs like the plague and I can't say I've ever regretted it. Not all good college QBs become great NFL QBs, but very few great NFL QBs weren't good college QBs. Avoiding all of the "tools" guys like Whitehurst, Locker, and Boller seems to weed out a lot of DOA busts.
You convinced me. I dumped him for Dri Archer in my superflex league. I like to play the percentages.

 
I'd say Jimmy G.

Has some terrific attributes and gets the benefit of going "old school" and learning from the bench for a while. Brady is getting up there and Jimmy is under the umbrella of a top organization. All pieces of the pies accounted for, I like his combination of opportunities better than the rest, plus you know that even if it took 3 seasons, the Patriots aren't the type of team to leave the cupboard bare. Gronk will still be young and you have to figure they won't be a bare bones team looking for one guy to do it all.
I catch hell every time I say this but Brady's contract makes him easily tradeable. Only a $12M cap hit if they do it after 2015.

 
Huge fan of Fales. Look at the options in CHI... even without Marshall, at some point...

Cutler is uneven and uninterested at times. Josh McCown proved even an average journeyman could put up excellent numbers in the Trestman system. Fales may not have all the "elite measurables", but he doesn't need to have them with what Trestman needs out of his QB.

I drafted Thomas in a league as a flyer just based on opportunity alone. I think he has flaws, for sure, but some could be corrected with proper instruction.

I wanted to grab Murray in a league but missed out. I think he has some opportunity, and would flourish in Reid's system in KC. Alex Smith is nothing special, and the Chiefs may figure this out sooner rather than later.... in which case Murray could rise up the charts in a hurry.
Murray is nothing special either. He's essentially a shorter version of Smith. I'd rather have Tyler Bray, who is actually 1 year younger despite entering the draft 1 year earlier.

 
Ryan Griffin is a no risk dynasty investment for people (like me) who are not sure any of the later round rookie QBs are even worth a draft pick. Their odds of success are on par Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib.

 
Just Win Baby said:
cstu said:
bigmarc27 said:
I'm an acc football fan and saw a good bit of Logan Thomas. He just sucks. I'm sorry, but he's not a good QB. Good athlete, good kid, bad QB.
Similar college QB's - Brunell, Blake, Brooks and Garrard.
Similar how?
QB's who could run but weren't accurate passers in college and drafted in the 4th or later.

 
Anyone remember the reason cited why Mettenberger slid so far in the draft? Was it injury related or more performance?

 
Just Win Baby said:
cstu said:
bigmarc27 said:
I'm an acc football fan and saw a good bit of Logan Thomas. He just sucks. I'm sorry, but he's not a good QB. Good athlete, good kid, bad QB.
Similar college QB's - Brunell, Blake, Brooks and Garrard.
Similar how?
QB's who could run but weren't accurate passers in college and drafted in the 4th or later.
Jeff Blake? Jeff Blake was 6th in the NCAA in passing yards and 4th in the NCAA in passing TDs as a senior. He had a 28:8 TD:int ratio and threw for 8.4 YPA. He also only ran for 109 yards. None of that is similar to Thomas.

But aside from that, even if you can find a few exceptions that are similar and worked out well, there are many more who did not. Thomas is much more likely to follow the route of prior Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor than the path of Blake, Brunell, Brooks, or Garrard.

 
I took Jimmy in the 7th in a 16 team league.

But is there any chance Tajh Boyd succeeds?
I mentioned I'm an ACC football fan earlier in the thread - I'm a Clemson alum... I wouldn't want Tajh as a back-up NFL QB for my team. He padded stats with easy throws and uncontested deep balls to some of the best skill position players in the country. Anytime he played a defense with a pulse, he choked (see FSU, SCAR, etc...). He had one great game (LSU peach bowl) and he was absolutely phenomenal in that game. Everything else was just garbage stats.

During his tenure, he threw passes to 2 first round WRs (Sammy Watkins and Nuke Hopkins), 2 tall and talented WRs (Martavis Bryant and Jaron Brown now on the Cards), Mackey award winning TE Dwayne Allen, Andre Ellington, and on and on. They made him look good, not the other way around.

 
Just Win Baby said:
cstu said:
bigmarc27 said:
I'm an acc football fan and saw a good bit of Logan Thomas. He just sucks. I'm sorry, but he's not a good QB. Good athlete, good kid, bad QB.
Similar college QB's - Brunell, Blake, Brooks and Garrard.
Similar how?
QB's who could run but weren't accurate passers in college and drafted in the 4th or later.
Jeff Blake? Jeff Blake was 6th in the NCAA in passing yards and 4th in the NCAA in passing TDs as a senior. He had a 28:8 TD:int ratio and threw for 8.4 YPA. He also only ran for 109 yards. None of that is similar to Thomas.

But aside from that, even if you can find a few exceptions that are similar and worked out well, there are many more who did not. Thomas is much more likely to follow the route of prior Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor than the path of Blake, Brunell, Brooks, or Garrard.
Blake threw a lot of deep passes his senior year but had a career 54% completion percentage. His junior year he had 400 yards rushing. His YPA was only high his senior year, prior to that it was lower (6.9) than Thomas' career average of 7.2 YPA.

Look, he's a longshot, I get that. However if you are in a league that devalues passing TD's (4 points) then it's worth rostering a QB who can run the ball.

 
Just Win Baby said:
cstu said:
bigmarc27 said:
I'm an acc football fan and saw a good bit of Logan Thomas. He just sucks. I'm sorry, but he's not a good QB. Good athlete, good kid, bad QB.
Similar college QB's - Brunell, Blake, Brooks and Garrard.
Similar how?
QB's who could run but weren't accurate passers in college and drafted in the 4th or later.
Jeff Blake? Jeff Blake was 6th in the NCAA in passing yards and 4th in the NCAA in passing TDs as a senior. He had a 28:8 TD:int ratio and threw for 8.4 YPA. He also only ran for 109 yards. None of that is similar to Thomas.

But aside from that, even if you can find a few exceptions that are similar and worked out well, there are many more who did not. Thomas is much more likely to follow the route of prior Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor than the path of Blake, Brunell, Brooks, or Garrard.
Blake threw a lot of deep passes his senior year but had a career 54% completion percentage. His junior year he had 400 yards rushing. His YPA was only high his senior year, prior to that it was lower (6.9) than Thomas' career average of 7.2 YPA.

Look, he's a longshot, I get that. However if you are in a league that devalues passing TD's (4 points) then it's worth rostering a QB who can run the ball.
Bottom line, Blake showed an upward progression as a college QB, culminating in him being one of the best QBs in the nation as a senior, at least by production. Thomas did none of that.

Blake also was a senior 22 years before Thomas. In fact, most of your exceptions played long before Thomas. The game has changed. What college QBs typically show before going on to NFL success is different now. For the most part, you are comparing apples and oranges here.

 
Huge fan of Fales. Look at the options in CHI... even without Marshall, at some point...

Cutler is uneven and uninterested at times. Josh McCown proved even an average journeyman could put up excellent numbers in the Trestman system. Fales may not have all the "elite measurables", but he doesn't need to have them with what Trestman needs out of his QB.

I drafted Thomas in a league as a flyer just based on opportunity alone. I think he has flaws, for sure, but some could be corrected with proper instruction.

I wanted to grab Murray in a league but missed out. I think he has some opportunity, and would flourish in Reid's system in KC. Alex Smith is nothing special, and the Chiefs may figure this out sooner rather than later.... in which case Murray could rise up the charts in a hurry.
Murray is nothing special either. He's essentially a shorter version of Smith. I'd rather have Tyler Bray, who is actually 1 year younger despite entering the draft 1 year earlier.
He may not need to be special to flourish in the Reid system. That's kinda the point.

I tend to put a lot of stock in what Gil Brandt says, and when Brandt says there's "a little Drew Brees" in this kid, I listen.... and when you're risking one of your last picks in a rookie draft, why not?

 
Murray looked really good in college and fought the bulldogs back a number of times. Great in the two minute drill and a real competitor. Think he could be a good pro but not elite.

 
I'm interested in learning more about Tom Savage. To play as well as he did last year after all the time off is pretty impressive. Also, seems to have matured a bit since his "I'm taking my ball and going home" episode at Rutgers. Other than limited highlights and recaps last year, I don't know much about him. Any Pitt or Rutgers homers here that have some first hand insight to offer?

 
Clifford said:
Murray looked really good in college and fought the bulldogs back a number of times. Great in the two minute drill and a real competitor. Think he could be a good pro but not elite.
Agree. The guys here that break down all the film from Northwest Idaho Technical College's spring practices will tell you that his measurables are not up to par. Can't disagree with any of those thoughts. But there are plenty of non-elite athletes in the game right now that are excellent NFL and fantasy QBs. Again, super-scout Gil Brandt made a Drew Brees comparison. Now, I'm not saying (nor is Brandt) that the guy is the "next Drew Brees", but possesses many of the same innate abilities to lead an offense.

And finally, we're talking about late QB choices in rookie drafts. Who would you rather have? Some unknown RB buried on his team's depth chart? Or more of a known commodity? I don't know about you guys, but most of my 6th, 7th and 8th round rookie picks are usually dropped within a year of drafting them. I'm more inclined to take a guy like Murray (or Thomas). :shrug:

 
Clifford said:
Murray looked really good in college and fought the bulldogs back a number of times. Great in the two minute drill and a real competitor. Think he could be a good pro but not elite.
Agree. The guys here that break down all the film from Northwest Idaho Technical College's spring practices will tell you that his measurables are not up to par. Can't disagree with any of those thoughts. But there are plenty of non-elite athletes in the game right now that are excellent NFL and fantasy QBs. Again, super-scout Gil Brandt made a Drew Brees comparison. Now, I'm not saying (nor is Brandt) that the guy is the "next Drew Brees", but possesses many of the same innate abilities to lead an offense.

And finally, we're talking about late QB choices in rookie drafts. Who would you rather have? Some unknown RB buried on his team's depth chart? Or more of a known commodity? I don't know about you guys, but most of my 6th, 7th and 8th round rookie picks are usually dropped within a year of drafting them. I'm more inclined to take a guy like Murray (or Thomas). :shrug:
I like Murray a good deal but think it's going to be a real uphill battle for him in the NFL. He's a scrappy guy with great leadership and competitiveness. I think he's got a leg up on most rookies QBs from a read progression standpoint thanks to the Pro style offense in UGA and his extensive time as a starter. His size, or lack of, also helped him in this regard. It forced him to work out of the pocket more with his eyes and learn to hit passing windows IMO. He's also fearless in the pocket and that you can't coach IMO. That's the good. The bad is that he just doesn't posses great physical tools. He really needs to have a clean pocket in order to make all the throws and his arm is on the cusp of what's adequate for NFL caliber if you ask me. His size will be a problem because he also doesn't have a great throwing motion. He releases the ball low at times and he's already short... Not good. I love that he ended up in KC to be honest. I think Reid is a great fit for him both as a coach and the scheme. Still, it's going to look awkward at practice when the other backup in KC he will be competing with for a roster spot, Bray, is zipping darts all over the field with his insane arm talent.

 
Ryan Griffin is a no risk dynasty investment for people (like me) who are not sure any of the later round rookie QBs are even worth a draft pick. Their odds of success are on par Matt Barkley and Ryan Nassib.
Another solid performance by Ryan Griffin. Is it too soon to start a bandwagon thread?

 

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