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Defense by committee (1 Viewer)

SD and IND
probably gonna have to grab SD fairly early (ADP 125) which defeats (at least somewhat) the idea behind defense by committee.
ADPs are unreliable for defenses IMO. There are so many different types of DEF/ST scoring systems that I really have not been able to feel comfortable with any team's ADP. SD was the 9th DEF taken in my league and IND went undrafted.
 
SD and IND
probably gonna have to grab SD fairly early (ADP 125) which defeats (at least somewhat) the idea behind defense by committee.
ADPs are unreliable for defenses IMO. There are so many different types of DEF/ST scoring systems that I really have not been able to feel comfortable with any team's ADP. SD was the 9th DEF taken in my league and IND went undrafted.
I actually like the Chargers D this year to bounce back nicely.Consensus on defense by committee teams seems to be Green Bay and Arizona. Very nice combined schedule.
 
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I believe the article said that the two best to combine are GB & AZ
That was only a brief portion of the full article. Every year FBGs comes out with every possible DBC combination. For those of us in dynasty leagues where GB & AZ are already gone, it would be nice to see the full article.
 
This is at least the third if not fourth or fifth question/"new" thread about this

As said before in several places - the entire article is due early next week

 
Chase already posted it in the online mag and on the site. He may switch it up which I am hoping in his next release. I am just not sure about this year's selections. I have not figured out a better selection at this time.

Chase's 2009 DTBC is reminding too much of the '08 (NO/Buff) and '05 (Cinn/Det) DTBC. This year I am also am not liking some of the chosen match ups being away games on Monday nite.

*Pardon the hijack from the thread's intent but this does seem relevant to the original question. Since I see the online mag is free I am going to explain some of my reasoning here. Just an fyi I started using it about 5-6 years ago.

This year Chase selected GB/Ariz for the DTBC. Majority of the time the DTBC is all about matching up a preseason non-top 5-8 defense against an average to poor offense. Here are some of the selected match ups and at this point in time (preseason) are not ones I would really want to have.

Week 4 – Green Bay @ Minnesota (MNF)

Week 5 – Arizona vs. Houston

Week 13 – Green Bay vs. Baltimore (MNF)

Week 14 – Arizona @ San Francisco (MNF)

These Monday nite game(s) and 1 awaythen Arizona going up against Houston. Last year GB had alot of trouble playing at Minn losing 28-27 w/AP getting 192 yds and a TD w/Ferrote(sp) throwing for 2 more tds though he did cough up 3 ints. Minn had lots of yardage and points in this game so maybe in your league's Def scoring it would work but not mine. I definitely would not want to match up against Houston though maybe the heat will wear Houston down and Schwab could be hurt by week 5. Ariz last year gave up close to 27 points per game and while firing their D coordinator promoted the LB coaching up.

Overall the schedule is good (perhaps the best) w/match ups against Det(3), St. Louis(3), SF(2), Sea(1), Cinn(1), Clev(1).

Perhaps the major issue I am having with this year's selection is both Ariz and GBs offense are too good. Both of the teams where in the top 5 in scoring last year but more importantly both were in the top 8 in passing offense. I believe this actually work against both Ariz and GB's defense. Unless of course they totally dominate on both sides of the ball which is something of a reach for team being selected in the very late rounds of your draft. Some will say it is good to have the opposing team playing catch-up but as in '08 and '05 I think maybe this idea can work but I believe what tends to happen is something of a let-up if an opposing team gets too far behind you could have subs coming in and a defenses going to a bend but dont break attitude especially in the 4th.

One other thing that is going on this year is GB moving from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and getting the right personnel for this to happen. Ariz is also supposed to be using the 3-4 more this year and from the 1st preseason game seems to be wanting to blitz more. I see this as more uncertainty and not initially leading to consistent performance.

Looking back over the past 7 years of the DTBC articles (this isnt enough to draw conclusive evidence but perhaps we can find a trend) one of the selections typically is your "major" player and the other a "minor" in the sense one will be selected to be your starter more often. I think when the DTBC works is when you can select a Defense that will improve (for whatever reason i.e. new coaching, FA, injuries, schedule) in the total scoring and total yards category. In '07, '06, '04 the DTBC worked really well with the major player being Tenn('07), NE('06), Wash('04) with these teams making huge strides on the defensive side of the ball from the previous season. Where these teams will have been in the bottom 1/3 of the league in Def scoring and total yards prior to being selected for DTBC to the next season being in the top 10 and in some cases top 5 in the NFL. The other interesting thing is the team's offensive production and time of possession during those years. There are alot of things to look at but what I have seen so far is the teams selected for DTBC to be successful will dramatically improve on their rushing attempts and a decrease on the # of passing attempts. There is also a jump up in the Time of Possession probably tied to the increase in rushing attempts.

Example:

New England ---- 2005 --------- 2006

Def scoring ----- rank #17 ----- rank #2

Def total yds --- rank #26 ----- rank #6

Off scoring ----- rank #10 ----- rank #7

Off passing ---- rank #2 ------ rank #12

Off rushing ---- rank #24 ----- rank #12

This is way too long already so to wrap up and you can chase the numbers or email me and I will send you my spreadsheet but it is also true for Tenn('07), Wash('04) and Seattle('03).

For the years DTBC struggled and last year was a HUGE one look at the offensive side of the ball for NO in '08 and Cinn in '05.

I am not saying a high scoring/great passing team can not make a good DTBC since there is so little to go on just from what I am seeing to date it is not probably a good bet to use one and if it did work then you probably picked a SB team as part of the DTBC :wub: This year with both Ariz and GB there is a really good chance of both teams being projected in the top 10 possibly top 5 in scoring and passing yards.

 
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Anybody have any defenses that they think will surprise this season?
Not really going out on a limb here, but I look for Washington to improve with Haynesworth. They weren't really slouches before, and they have a good chance to be starter quality IMO
 
My plan A in all of my leagues is to use San Diego as my base D, rotate in waiver wire D's as needed. All depends on if they fall far enough though.

 
My plan A in all of my leagues is to use San Diego as my base D, rotate in waiver wire D's as needed. All depends on if they fall far enough though.
I was targeting them also, but they got snatched up last round (slow, online draft).Now I'm trying to decide between grabbing TN with my next pick or taking Chris Henry and gambling that a decent D will still be there next round.
 
Anybody have any defenses that they think will surprise this season?
This is a tough year for good guesswork in term of defenses. There are 22 teams with new coordinators. I would take a look at the handful of teams with defensive oreinted head coaches (especially those with aggressive back grounds) and are talking about running the ball more. San Francisco, Rams and Jets come to mind as team which you should at least be considering based on the criteria above.
 
If you are looking for teams that might fit into a DTBC I see upside (for a variety and different reasons for each) this year to Wash, SD, SF, Sea, and a few deep sleepers here possiblyyyyy Cinn or Clev. I believe a good defense will have a decent (near the top 10) in Time of Posseision offense by the end of the year.

 
I'll go out on a limb. I feel that WR, Def, and Kickers are the slots i've had the most success at grabbing sleepers that land in the top 5(as far as kickers and Def). Some sleeper Defenses I like are: Houston and Detroit.

Houston I think is a rising team and I think they will be much improved and I like their DLine, LBs and the secondary is coming around. The pass rush of the Texans I expect to produce a nice sack total and lead to turnovers. Where they can be drafted I really like them and will be grabbing them in every draft.

Detroit isn't a defense I'd recommend for everyone. I expect teams to be able to score and rack up yardage on Detroit, so if your league penalizes you for that then pass on Detroit. Most of My leagues don't give negative you for YDS/Points against and the points you gain aren't that great. Things I like about Detroit are it's schedule, 2 games against GB, NO, and Pitt you may not get much from Detroit, but the other games I feel you have QBs that will provide alot of interceptions aka. Pick six opportunities. I also like the free agents Detroit has added along with Ernie Sims. Detroit will probably have drives stall due to having a rookie QB so the Defense will be on the field alot giving the chance for turnovers.

To recap. Houston will be what most people look for in a defense, sacks, turnovers, and can keep the yards and scoring against down. Detroit will be the Aaron Brooks of defenses, not pretty when it comes to actual play, but puts up good numbers for fantasy football.

 
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Any other thoughts on a surprise D or 2 for this season?
I like the Packers to break in to the top ten. They were decent last year, and this year they have a new, proven defensive coordinator (Capers) and spent two early picks on defensive players. And their schedule looks pretty easy. Their conference games are against a rookie QB and a couple of veterans who throw a lot of interceptions. Plus they matchup against the NFC West and AFC North.
 
Any other thoughts on a surprise D or 2 for this season?
I like the Packers to break in to the top ten. They were decent last year, and this year they have a new, proven defensive coordinator (Capers) and spent two early picks on defensive players. And their schedule looks pretty easy. Their conference games are against a rookie QB and a couple of veterans who throw a lot of interceptions. Plus they matchup against the NFC West and AFC North.
I think those taking the Packer defense are going to be very disappointed. They are moving to a 3-4 defense. According to Fantasy Outsiders it typically takes 4-5 games into the season for things to click for a team making such a change. Add to that that GB doesn't have the Linemen or Linebackers for a 3-4. There has been talk that Kampman has been frustrated with the change to the 3-4 during OTA's and camp. I suspect he is unhappy because the new scheme isn't going to allow him to do what he does best.
 
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Anyone else like the Patriots defense this year? I think the offense will be on the field a lot and will have the lead which will allow the D to be aggressive.

 
Any other thoughts on a surprise D or 2 for this season?
I like the Packers to break in to the top ten. They were decent last year, and this year they have a new, proven defensive coordinator (Capers) and spent two early picks on defensive players. And their schedule looks pretty easy. Their conference games are against a rookie QB and a couple of veterans who throw a lot of interceptions. Plus they matchup against the NFC West and AFC North.
I think those taking the Packer defense are going to be very disappointed. They are moving to a 3-4 defense. According to Fantasy Outsiders it typically takes 4-5 games into the season for things to click for a team making such a change. Add to that that GB doesn't have the Linemen or Linebackers for a 3-4. There has been talk that Jared Allen has been frustrated with the change to the 3-4 during OTA's and camp. I suspect Allen is unhappy because the new scheme isn't going to allow him to do what he does best.
:wall: Do you mean Kampman? Kampman has warmed up to the idea and shown improvement everyday. The Packer's defense looked good in their first preseason game (albeit Cleveland) with only a minimum amount of the defensive playbook. Dom Capers and his coaching staff are doing a tremendous job so far of introducing the new scheme. Don't overlook the Packers D.
 
I actually spent about a couple hours comparing this. Excluding all the defenses that could go in the top 10, I looked for combinations of those remaining vs teams that do not have high powered offenses.

What I found is that the best combination with 16 weeks of the regular season covered is Bengals and Redskins. The only problem with that is both of those teams have the same bye week. After that, the next three best combos are Bengals & Browns, Browns & Packers, or Packers & Raiders.

Schedule of these combinations posted below:

Bengals & Redskins

1: Cin vs Den

2: Was vs StL

3: Was at Det

4: Cin at Cle or Was vs TB

5: Cin at Bal

6: Was vs KC

7: Cin vs Chi

8: both teams on bye

9: Cin vs Bal

10: Was vs Den

11: Cin at Oak

12: Cin vs Cle

13: Cin vs Det

14: Was at Oak

15: Was vs NYG

16: Cin vs KC

17: Cin at NYJ

Bengals & Browns

1: Cin vs Den

2: Cle at Den

3: Cle at Bal

4: Cin at Cle

5: Cin at Bal

6: Cin vs Hou or Cle at Pit

7: Cin vs Chi

8: Cle at Chi

9: Cin at Bal

10: Cle vs Bal

11: Cin at Oak or Cle at Det

12: Cin vs Cle

13: Cin vs Det

14: Cin at Min or Cle vs Pit

15: Cle at KC

16: Cin vs KC or Cle vs Oak

17: Cin at NYJ

Browns & Packers

1: GB vs Chi

2: Cle at Den

3: GB at StL or Cle at Bal

4: Cle vs Cin or GB vs Min

5: Cle at Buf

6: GB vs Det

7: GB at Cle

8: Cle at Chi

9: GB at TB

10: Cle vs Bal

11: Cle at Det

12: GB at Det

13: GB at Bal

14: GB at Chi

15: Cle at KC

16: Cle vs Oak

17: Cle vs Jax

Packers & Raiders

1: GB vs Chi

2: Oak at KC

3: GB at StL or Oak vs Den

4: GB at Min or Oak at Hou

5: Oak at NYG

6: GB vs Det

7: GB at Cle

8: GB vs Min

9: GB at TB

10: Oak vs KC

11: GB vs SF

12: GB at Det

13: GB vs Bal

14: GB at Chi

15: Oak at Den

16: Oak at Cle

17: Oak vs Bal

 
Homer Pitch.

The DL of the Bills seems to rejuvanted under the watchful eye of Bob Sanders. The pressure the 1st team has put on has been a huge improvement on last season. Kelsey has looked reborn on the LDE. Sanders has a lit a fire under that country boys belly. And a healthy Schobel can't hurt. McKelvin has been a beast in pre season, and adding the ST impact will garner bonus points. The DEF/ ST might take a hit if Roscoe Parrish is traded. But based on the ADP of the Bills, I think they will out perform. (ADP 228) Still have some questions at OLB, but 5th rounder Nic Harris looks to be gaining ground on Keith Ellison, and looks to have made the transition from safety to LB.

Just a homers opinion, but I will gladly take them in rounds 16 - 20 of a 14 team league.

 
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Any other thoughts on a surprise D or 2 for this season?
I like the Packers to break in to the top ten. They were decent last year, and this year they have a new, proven defensive coordinator (Capers) and spent two early picks on defensive players. And their schedule looks pretty easy. Their conference games are against a rookie QB and a couple of veterans who throw a lot of interceptions. Plus they matchup against the NFC West and AFC North.
I think those taking the Packer defense are going to be very disappointed. They are moving to a 3-4 defense. According to Fantasy Outsiders it typically takes 4-5 games into the season for things to click for a team making such a change. Add to that that GB doesn't have the Linemen or Linebackers for a 3-4. There has been talk that Jared Allen has been frustrated with the change to the 3-4 during OTA's and camp. I suspect Allen is unhappy because the new scheme isn't going to allow him to do what he does best.
:lmao: Do you mean Kampman? Kampman has warmed up to the idea and shown improvement everyday. The Packer's defense looked good in their first preseason game (albeit Cleveland) with only a minimum amount of the defensive playbook. Dom Capers and his coaching staff are doing a tremendous job so far of introducing the new scheme. Don't overlook the Packers D.
Oops meant Kampman, thanks.
 
I actually spent about a couple hours comparing this. Excluding all the defenses that could go in the top 10, I looked for combinations of those remaining vs teams that do not have high powered offenses.What I found is that the best combination with 16 weeks of the regular season covered is Bengals and Redskins. The only problem with that is both of those teams have the same bye week. After that, the next three best combos are Bengals & Browns, Browns & Packers, or Packers & Raiders.Schedule of these combinations posted below:Bengals & Redskins1: Cin vs Den2: Was vs StL3: Was at Det4: Cin at Cle or Was vs TB5: Cin at Bal6: Was vs KC7: Cin vs Chi8: both teams on bye9: Cin vs Bal10: Was vs Den11: Cin at Oak12: Cin vs Cle13: Cin vs Det14: Was at Oak15: Was vs NYG16: Cin vs KC17: Cin at NYJBengals & Browns1: Cin vs Den2: Cle at Den3: Cle at Bal4: Cin at Cle5: Cin at Bal6: Cin vs Hou or Cle at Pit 7: Cin vs Chi8: Cle at Chi9: Cin at Bal10: Cle vs Bal11: Cin at Oak or Cle at Det12: Cin vs Cle13: Cin vs Det14: Cin at Min or Cle vs Pit 15: Cle at KC16: Cin vs KC or Cle vs Oak17: Cin at NYJBrowns & Packers1: GB vs Chi 2: Cle at Den 3: GB at StL or Cle at Bal 4: Cle vs Cin or GB vs Min 5: Cle at Buf 6: GB vs Det 7: GB at Cle 8: Cle at Chi 9: GB at TB 10: Cle vs Bal 11: Cle at Det 12: GB at Det 13: GB at Bal 14: GB at Chi 15: Cle at KC 16: Cle vs Oak 17: Cle vs Jax Packers & Raiders 1: GB vs Chi2: Oak at KC3: GB at StL or Oak vs Den4: GB at Min or Oak at Hou5: Oak at NYG6: GB vs Det7: GB at Cle8: GB vs Min9: GB at TB10: Oak vs KC11: GB vs SF12: GB at Det13: GB vs Bal14: GB at Chi15: Oak at Den16: Oak at Cle17: Oak vs Bal
:confused: Great work. Thanks!
 
nihsumi,

I'm not sure why GB vs. Baltimore is a tough game, or Arizona @ SF. I don't think GB @ Minnesota is a terrible matchup, especially since you have the potential for a ton of turnovers by the Vikings. Obviously you can't get 16 gimmes, but I think this is a terrific schedule.

I don't think the ARI and GB offenses are too good. Having a good offense -- or a good passing offense -- isn't a bad thing. For starters, points allowed and points scored are negatively correlated. That means the more points a team scores, the fewer that team generally allows. Now passing yards and points allowed are ever so slightly positively correlated, but that's because the causation arrow runs the other way (allowing lots of points leads to more passing yards). Passing yards per attempt -- which is what you mean when you say ARI and GB are great passing teams -- is negatively correlated with points allowed, just like points scored.

Just like allowing lots of points leads to more passing yards, scoring lots of points leads to more interceptions. High point totals are correlated with high interception totals, and I think the causation arrows runs that way -- by scoring lots of points, you force the opposition to pass, and often in bad passing situations. Passing yards per attempt is slightly correlated with INTs forced, as well.

So the fact that GB and ARI have good to great passing offenses (or just offenses) is far from a bad thing. It's a good thing.

In 2005, Detroit and Cincinnati both had a bunch of interceptions, although they had terrible defenses generally. Buf and NO in 2008 both had bad defenses, but not because they had good offenses (NO did, Buf did not).

I'm stoked to see that someone has followed my DTBC series for this long. And yes, it was unbelievable in '07 with Tennessee, and great in '06 and '04 with the Pats and Skins. I wouldn't be surprised if only one of GB/ARI is very good, so sure, that could happen again. That's one of the advantages of DTBC. If a team has a great defense, they will certainly have good TOP and rushing numbers. Once again, you need to be careful what you imply from correlation.

I hope this addresses all your points.

 
Homer Pitch.The DL of the Bills seems to rejuvanted under the watchful eye of Bob Sanders. The pressure the 1st team has put on has been a huge improvement on last season. Kelsey has looked reborn on the LDE. Sanders has a lit a fire under that country boys belly. And a healthy Schobel can't hurt. McKelvin has been a beast in pre season, and adding the ST impact will garner bonus points. The DEF/ ST might take a hit if Roscoe Parrish is traded. But based on the ADP of the Bills, I think they will out perform. (ADP 228) Still have some questions at OLB, but 5th rounder Nic Harris looks to be gaining ground on Keith Ellison, and looks to have made the transition from safety to LB. Just a homers opinion, but I will gladly take them in rounds 16 - 20 of a 14 team league.
I also am a homer and I don't like the defense at all. No pass rush, slow linebackers, and gambling cornerbacks. The tight end is open all day long, and they can't cover the good WRs or defend against accurate passers like Pennington and Brady.
 
Any other thoughts on a surprise D or 2 for this season?
I like the Packers to break in to the top ten. They were decent last year, and this year they have a new, proven defensive coordinator (Capers) and spent two early picks on defensive players. And their schedule looks pretty easy. Their conference games are against a rookie QB and a couple of veterans who throw a lot of interceptions. Plus they matchup against the NFC West and AFC North.
They are switching to the 3-4 and need Raji to be a force. They place 6 games against turnover prone QBs Farve, Cutler and Lions QB.
 
Any other thoughts on a surprise D or 2 for this season?
I like the Packers to break in to the top ten. They were decent last year, and this year they have a new, proven defensive coordinator (Capers) and spent two early picks on defensive players. And their schedule looks pretty easy. Their conference games are against a rookie QB and a couple of veterans who throw a lot of interceptions. Plus they matchup against the NFC West and AFC North.
They are switching to the 3-4 and need Raji to be a force. They place 6 games against turnover prone QBs Farve, Cutler and Lions QB.
Cutler isn't turnover prone (average INT rate, good fumble rate), but agreed on the other two. The Packers have a great schedule this year.
 
Any other thoughts on a surprise D or 2 for this season?
I like the Packers to break in to the top ten. They were decent last year, and this year they have a new, proven defensive coordinator (Capers) and spent two early picks on defensive players. And their schedule looks pretty easy. Their conference games are against a rookie QB and a couple of veterans who throw a lot of interceptions. Plus they matchup against the NFC West and AFC North.
They are switching to the 3-4 and need Raji to be a force. They place 6 games against turnover prone QBs Farve, Cutler and Lions QB.
Cutler isn't turnover prone (average INT rate, good fumble rate), but agreed on the other two. The Packers have a great schedule this year.
I think Cutler turns the ball over when his WRs aren't open, and this year, the Bears WRs are not good enough to get open a lot. Just going off gut feel so I appreciate you giving the numbers. :rolleyes:
 
Any other thoughts on a surprise D or 2 for this season?
I like the Packers to break in to the top ten. They were decent last year, and this year they have a new, proven defensive coordinator (Capers) and spent two early picks on defensive players. And their schedule looks pretty easy. Their conference games are against a rookie QB and a couple of veterans who throw a lot of interceptions. Plus they matchup against the NFC West and AFC North.
They are switching to the 3-4 and need Raji to be a force. They place 6 games against turnover prone QBs Farve, Cutler and Lions QB.
That other guy in the Vikings backfield isn't afraid to turn the ball over either.
 
I see that Chase recommended GB/Arizona has his preferred combo this year. I tried this combo in one league so I'm hoping he's right.

Question though.....how has Chase's/FBG's suggested combos done in the past few years?

 
Does this get updated through the course of the year? I vaguely remember that happening one year, but not sure if it happens on a yearly basis.

Longer term question, as GB looks very good and is in line for the next 3 starts if following exactly.

 
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