Defensive Back Tiers [post-OTA update 7/5] (1 Viewer)

[Jene Bramel]

Defensive Back tiers (post OTA / minicamp) ~ posted 7/5

Defensive Back tiers (post-draft / initial version) ~ posted 6/1

No major modification to the tier process this year but I have made one major modification to the presentation process. The tier features will be presented in table format, which will allow me to include a one-liner for every player tiered.

If you see a possible omission or table error, my love and appreciation in advance for noting it in this thread, by email or via Twitter. And thanks in advance for any discussion and feedback you've got for the thread.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Jene, what do youthink of Earl Wolff in philly?

Nice to see you high on Bucannon and Gillbert. Gilbert was one of the greatest return men in ncaa history. He should be good if your league awards points for returns.

 

[georg013]

TJ McDonald?

 

[jonboltz]

Sign me up for Donte Whitner at that price virtually everywhere (and petition my GM to allow me to roster and use him twice).

 

[KellysHeroes]

no Brandon Carr for CBs?

 

[FUBAR]

Why isn't TJ Ward in Tier 1? He's my top DB target this year.

 

[FUBAR]

Also, as a general concept; I assume you're in favor of waiting on DB in a draft and finding cheap values in auctions.

Is DB the least valuable position in standard IDP leagues? (aside from kicker)

 

[msommer]

DJ Swearinger: Behind Reed? You mean behind the off-line LBs, right.

Assuming Cushing stays healthy how is his situation better than Matt Elam's (I know they are in the same tier, just the one line comment makes it sound completely different)

 

[Jene Bramel]

Jene, what do youthink of Earl Wolff in philly?

Injury prone and inconsistent. Early OTA buzz has Allen ahead of him. If Wolff wins the job, toss him in the matchup cloud best bets if you believe he stays healthy long enough to be worth holding.

 

[Jene Bramel]

TJ McDonald?

Every safety with a starting job is technically part of the matchup cloud tier. I think there's too much variance in the STL secondary with Laurinaitis and Ogletree, but McDonald is nearer the top of the cloud than the bottom.

 

[Jene Bramel]

no Brandon Carr for CBs?

I listed 45 players on my initial spreadsheet of those cornerbacks I felt could have rosterable value early in the season. These 12 made the cut as best bets.

Your mileage, of course, may vary.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Why isn't TJ Ward in Tier 1? He's my top DB target this year.

There isn't much difference between the end of the top tier and the beginning of this second tier of safeties. This tier, as it did last year, could morph into a Tier 1A by mid-August.

Still, it's a fair question. The turnover at linebacker is significant and Ihenacho started strong. I don't think I'd have Ward in the top three, but I may have underrated him here.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Also, as a general concept; I assume you're in favor of waiting on DB in a draft and finding cheap values in auctions.

Is DB the least valuable position in standard IDP leagues? (aside from kicker)

Generally, yes.

But that's mostly because it's rare to find a clear and trustworthy relative value due to the variance in the position. If I was confident Barry Church could put up 105 solos again, he'd be a better draft pick / auction value than any nearly every other IDP, regardless of position.

 

[Jene Bramel]

DJ Swearinger: Behind Reed? You mean behind the off-line LBs, right.

Assuming Cushing stays healthy how is his situation better than Matt Elam's (I know they are in the same tier, just the one line comment makes it sound completely different)

Smith / Mosley have the potential to be much steeper competition for tackles than Cushing / Reed. And I believe Swearinger has a higher run support ceiling due to his style of play.

 

[PhantomJB]

TJ McDonald?

Every safety with a starting job is technically part of the matchup cloud tier. I think there's too much variance in the STL secondary with Laurinaitis and Ogletree, but McDonald is nearer the top of the cloud than the bottom.

Jene, is there a way this could be elaborated upon further (understanding it may take some time). There could be a nice potential oppty to slough this position during IDP drafts and effectively play a QBBC for WW safeties and CB's during the season.

Of course it all depends on identifying the criteria for a good DB matchup and then determining whether those criteria hold up consistently enough for some predictability.

For example, I have had occasional success picking up good corner CB's off the wire (e.g. P. Peterson, J. Haden) a week or two prior to a matchup with Megatron. As you know these CB's are not generally great season-long FF plays but were great in single instances.

Safeties not so much. Last year a guy like Cyprien was available on the WW early, then seemingly had great matchups in weeks 7-10 including SD and SF but was terrible statistically.

I know Mr. Norton has rankings every week but I have not found much success with those either. In addition, I believe Mr. Rudnicki has a IDP Matchup Exploit/Avoid column but that doesn't map to a "matchup cloud tier" and again not certain when you look back how good the predictions were.

I guess my point is that having a matchup cloud tier is great and all. But unless predictability is reasonably consistent we should just accept there is too much randomness in performance of lower tier IDP's and therefore the best strategy should always be plug-and-play a top tier guy and hope for the best.

TIA

 

[Jene Bramel]

TJ McDonald?

Every safety with a starting job is technically part of the matchup cloud tier. I think there's too much variance in the STL secondary with Laurinaitis and Ogletree, but McDonald is nearer the top of the cloud than the bottom.

Jene, is there a way this could be elaborated upon further (understanding it may take some time). There could be a nice potential oppty to slough this position during IDP drafts and effectively play a QBBC for WW safeties and CB's during the season.

TIA

Great idea. Added to my offseason schedule. Thanks.

 

[cr8f]

Micah Hyde was at safety at the first OTA's. Don't expect him to start there but they want him on the field a lot, playing safety and dime CB probably. He'll probably move around. No word yet on who plays SS, Burnett or Clinton Dix.

 

[georg013]

Thoughts on Stevie Brown? Have to decide between him and McDonald. Thanks for the work!

 

[Jestefarean]

Things looking up for Searcy in Buff. Has held the SS position with the 1's so far.

 

[MAC_32]

Thoughts on Stevie Brown? Have to decide between him and McDonald. Thanks for the work!

stevie will be in a better spot to make plays, too many taking away from McDonald in front of him,

 

[saintfool]

Things looking up for Searcy in Buff. Has held the SS position with the 1's so far.

So Aaron Williams is at FS?

 

[Jestefarean]

Things looking up for Searcy in Buff. Has held the SS position with the 1's so far.

So Aaron Williams is at FS?

Yes. Aaron is at FS. Searcy at SS competing with Duke.

 

[cr8f]

Hyde, Clinton-Dix both central to new safety plans in Green Bay.

 

[Azhais]

What do you think of Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Casey Hayward in CB required leagues this year? Blidi is taking over Verner's position which has been productive in the past, and Hayward did well before he lost last season

 

[Jene Bramel]

Tier update post OTAs and minicamps ~ http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=14bramel_defensive_back_tiers_postOTA

This update again includes trend column to show movement from the last set of tiers and also adds a column to show current ADP data.

 

[12punch]

calvin pryor - concussion

 

[cr8f]

Hyde continues to impress in Green Bay, starting so far in camp. I think they will use him like they used Woodson but haven't said so yet. They will probably play 3 safeties or Hyde at CB and Safety a lot.

http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/common/more.php?m=49&post_id=39151

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Earl Wolff is working as the Eagles' starting strong safety in training camp.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/inq-eagles/Eagles-practice-observations-Wolff-returns-Carroll-with-the-starters-McCoy-sizzles.html

 

[SelenaCat]

Was it an oversight that DB's weren't updated when the LB's and DL's were on 8/2? Or just not enough change to be worth an update?