DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

I'm not busting on Murray. I think he'll be the lead rusher for Dallas this year. I actually drafted both guys in my major money league last year, FWIW. I know you're not referring to me personally in your quoted post. But you should understand that I'm not overly biased to one direction or the other. At least I don't think so.I agree with you that Felix probably isnt in their long term plans. I doubt they resign him after next season. I personally think that would be a waste as the guy has talent. His issue has obviously been remaining healthy. But the same exact thing, if not moreso, can be said about Murray. Felix wasnt hurt in college. Murray was. Felix has averaged 14 games per season the last 3 years with the lowest game total of 12. Murray? Who knows.As for Murray averaging a full yard per carry less. You might try to calculate the impact of removing his 91 yard jaunt. Now backs break runs every now and then. And both Murray and Felix are the type of guys who break them. But statistical regression to the mean strongly suggests his YPC will come down. As for Felix getting 160 carries, well, he had 185 in 2010. And as an aside, his career YPC average is 5.1. There's a whole lot of NFL starting RBs that are far short of that.Garrett has shown that he'll play multiple backs if he's got them. Its been seen with MB3/Julius Jones. Felix/MB3/Choice. And Murray/Felix. There is absolutely no reason to beleive he won't split between those 2 this upcoming season, until one gets hurt. Which, given their respective injury histories, seems more likely than not.Bracie, if you'd like to engage in an open and reasonable debate, lets do so. But to summarily make statements like Felix Jones is not "a starting NFL RB" or "He's inferior in every way to DeMarco Murray" and then have no real basis behind those statements really doesnt add value to the discussion.Lets make this discussion more useful for folks, ok? I know you're capable of it. Not just blather.

Mbuehner noted the actua split in carries and you acknowledged his material which seems to address you question about how Garret actually does split carries between the starter and backup.As per how I have noted that Felix isn't a starting RB, that goes to the 2010 season when he was supposed to be the starter but he wasn't given the carries by Garret that a starting NFL RB would and should get. In 2010 Felix only had one game where Garret gave him more than 16 carries. Felix only had one-100 yard rushing game and only one rushing TD in the 2010 season. Those are not starting caliber NFL RB numbers so I base my statement that Felix isn't a starting NFL RB based off of how his OC used him and how he produced.Many accuse Murray of being injury prone but Felix is coming off a season where he had, a high ankle sprain, a hamstring injury, and he's still recuperating fromm shoulder surgery and isn't a full participant in OTAs.My expectations for Murray aren't connected to Felix because I don't consider Jones a threat to eat into his opportunities. I expect Murray to get more opportunities than many are projecting also consider this stat on scoring.Last year the Cowboys had the lowest percentage of rushing TDs of any team in the NFL, only 13% of their scoring came from the running game.That sort of imbalance is an enormous detriment near the goal line if a defense knows that a score is likely to happen 87% of the time thru the air so they can stack the deck to precent a score via the air. Dallas NEEDS to become effective running the ball into the endzone and I anticipate they will make it a priority and that would mean increased rushing TDs for Murray.

 

[cstu]

FWIW, Murray had a 4 game stretch (weeks 6-9) where he was incredible and had both of his TD's but in the rest of his games he averaged 3.32 YPC and didn't score a TD.

 

[Bankerguy]

Demarco Murray has incredible skills.He has sensational, no merely average or good but sensational vision. Once he gets to the second level he seems to have a perfect beed on evey defender and then he instantly makes the correct cut to get an angle. So the first thing I notice with his skill set is vision coupled with making instant cuts. Other guys may see something but they don't proccess and make the cuts that Murray makes.Next, he has the, burst, speed, and explosion, to take it the distance.He came in as the all-time leading scorer from Oklahoma so he can punch it in.He has great hands so he can catch.Bascially he is a legit three down back who can also score.One other aspect is that even though he's tall he runs low AT FULL SPEED meaning in a near straight line he has a low center of gravity because he runs flat footed so this gives him a huge advantage because it allows him to make cuts at full speed to pull away from defenders.His line needs upgrading but on sheer talent he is a top five running back. No question about it and if he is healthy he will blow up this year even with an iffy run blocking line.

This thread has too much bluster for me. The vast majority of it coming from this guy. Some of these are hilarious. I love it when people speak so definitively on subjective topics.

Relax.It's a thread asking for projections and opinions. He is giving his. I don't see much wrong with what he wrote, he's not saying Murray will lead the league in everything or something way out there. I fail to see the problem other then you not agreeing with his opinion. God, wouldn't it be boring if we all had the same opinion.

 

[griff321]

FWIW, Murray had a 4 game stretch (weeks 6-9) where he was incredible and had both of his TD's but in the rest of his games he averaged 3.32 YPC and didn't score a TD.

That's why you're going to see such a wide range of opinions. File me under the camp that says he's on his way to being a stud. He has the ability to take a sub-par day and turn it into a nice one with his receiving ability. For instance in week 11 he had 73 yards rushing for 3.17ypc, but he helped make up for that with 6rec. for 32. Week 12 he had 87yds rushing, but also had 4rec for 41. In PPR leagues his dual ability makes him a special player to target.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

FWIW, Murray had a 4 game stretch (weeks 6-9) where he was incredible and had both of his TD's but in the rest of his games he averaged 3.32 YPC and didn't score a TD.

That's why you're going to see such a wide range of opinions. File me under the camp that says he's on his way to being a stud. He has the ability to take a sub-par day and turn it into a nice one with his receiving ability. For instance in week 11 he had 73 yards rushing for 3.17ypc, but he helped make up for that with 6rec. for 32. Week 12 he had 87yds rushing, but also had 4rec for 41. In PPR leagues his dual ability makes him a special player to target.

This is true he has great hands. I don't think Murray is a long term solution in Dallas. He constantly gets injured, it even happened last season.

 

[Bankerguy]

While I dont agree with some of his opinions....I still fail to see the major problem here.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Demarco Murry is a bit overrated and I'm not talking in terms of his ability. Size, speed and hands are a huge plus for Murry in a passing offence. He is overrated because his perceived value is a lot higher than his actual value, there was a point when I'd hear AP in the same sentence. There are few backs without a doubt that deserve the bellcow RB1 label this season, the potential red flags that I see aside from his injury history says he belongs in a lower tier outside of the top 12. He is not a proven stud and he has stiff competition thats being overlooked.

I waited to see what he would do vs good-great defenses that would take away Dallas ability to run the ball and wasn't overly impressed. STL and BUF run D was a joke. SEA was too focused on the pass and actually stuffed him a few times near the goal line if I remember correctly. WAS, MIA, ARI(who played great D down the stretch) all left me with a lot to be desired. Another note is Dallas O-Line blocked 10x's better than they did before Felix was hurt, which brings me to my next point.

The best game from a Dallas rb was Felix Jones against the skins, he gained 155 yards in a horrible game with absolutely no help from his O-Line. He also tossed up two more 100 yards games after Murry was hurt. I see this as perfect time to buy low on Felix as a 5th back at the end of drafts. At best this will be a 2:1 split in Murry's favor. I question his history in the NFL and the fact that there is another back looking for a contract that will be entering prime years should not be ignored with such a high draftpick.

225carries/1000/6, 40rec/250/2

 

[5-ish Finkle]

What you ACTUALLY said (and I missed nothing) was:

13 games:

200-215 carries, 35-45 catches, 1100-1300 total yards, 5-6 total TDs.

Now, having said all that, I think Murray has the talent level to comfortably outstrip that prediction. Particularly if the Dallas OLine play improves. Their OL gets better and Murray plays 15-16 games? 1,700+ total yards and near double digit total TDs would not be a complete surprise. The Dallas pass offense is certainly good enough to eliminate teams from stacking the box. If they can begin to run block better Murray could go nuts in a scenario like that.

So, you're not surprised if he hits 1700+ and double digit TDs if he plays all 16. Otherwise, you expect the other stats.

Again, the point is to point out that some people are putting him on a pretty high pedestal that isn't very common. we get it: this thread (and the ones that have been similar to it) are pretty clear that this is a player that has people gravitating to extremes as some people think he is an incarnate of Walter Payton and others think its highly unlikely he can live up to such a lofty status. I guess that's why they play the games. We will see.

I will point out one.more.time before I leave you to whatever it is you're trying to prove here, since it still appears your reading comprehension is, indeed, slipping into neutral...

Nowhere in my original post, or in the portion you reposted, did I say that I thought 1,700 total yards and double digit TDs were likely for Murrray nor did I predict he'd achieve it, merely that it would not completely surprise me were he to do so if he played a full slate of games and, with the very important caveat, his OL improved(which you neglected to include in your little bolded dealie). I think his talent supports the possibility to achieve the totals. That is all I said.

That is not the same thing as expecting it to happen or predicting it will happen.

this thread (and the ones that have been similar to it) are pretty clear that this is a player that has people gravitating to extremes

Clearly.

 

[Chazzhawk]

I think too many here are underrating his receiving ability. Most here are predicting around 30 receptions and for me that would be his absolute worst case injury/regression floor scenario. Last season alone he had 26 receptions on 35 targets. That's very impressive for what's considered one of the toughest areas for a rookie RB. It's tough to get into a comparison game with other elite RBs in their rookie season that have his kind of receiving ability because of the unique situations, but he continues his current pace he's well on his way to being an elite PPR RB. Assuming he remains healthy(big assumption in this case but I don't project players based on injury) I think at the very least he ends up doubling his reception total. With the cowboys line problems I think they use the passing game to get him in space.

In the 8 games he started he had 23 catches, this includes one game where he had 0 catches but 250+ yards rushing and were dominating so much that they only completed 14 passes, and another games where he didn't play all the game because he got hurt. He is easily a 50 + year catch guy if healthy.

 

[FF Ninja]

Wow, this place is like a hype buffet, with a nice spread of optimistic to insane - referring to the "logic" in Bracie's posts (for instance, being the leading scorer at OU does not mean he can punch it in at the NFL level). It reminds me a LOT of the Felix Jones hype train last year... What happened to all those guys? There are a few realistic posts, though, which is refreshing.

I won't be surprised if he puts up a decent season, but I think there is a pretty good chance he turns out to just be a flash in the pan. Given the lack of competition, I have to think he'll get every opportunity to make it work. After his last two years being totally mediocre in Oklahoma in a pretty good conference, but primarily an offensive one, keep in mind, I just can't see drafting him 19th overall (RB10) based on a few games against poor defenses that were caught off guard from the Cowboys seldom used rushing attack. Given the effectiveness and weapons in the passing game there really is no excuse for whoever carries the ball in Dallas not to succeed, so it is possible a mediocre back such as Murry does well, but a healthy Felix will probably do just as well if not better.

I get that there was a disproportionate split between the two of them last year when they were both healthy, but this is 2012. Things seldom trasfer perfectly from the year before. With likely less than 400 RB carries to go around, I'll be surprised if anyone sees over 220 carries if everyone is healthy.

We should also keep in mind that with 374 rushes the RB corps only found the endzone 4 times last year and 8 the year before on 369 rushes. Additionally, they've only scored 2 TD on 166 receptions in those two years. I'm not saying that can't be improved upon, but Murray and Jones are not MB3 by any stretch of the imagination.

I'd throw out some projections, but this situation is too murky to me. I can't say I really like any of the other RBs around the 19th pick, so if it was me, I'd burn that pick on another position or, preferably (but more difficult), trade down.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Wow, this place is like a hype buffet, with a nice spread of optimistic to insane - referring to the "logic" in Bracie's posts (for instance, being the leading scorer at OU does not mean he can punch it in at the NFL level).

I agree that college career does not necessarily translate to an NFL career. But we need to at least be consistent in that line of logic. Some people are picking and choosing what to glean from Murry's college career, choosing to emphasize his injury history and ignoring his production.

After his last two years being totally mediocre in Oklahoma in a pretty good conference

I think you lost me here. A quick check shows that Murray numbers in his last year at OU were 1,214 15TDs, 71 rec 594, 5TDs. Hardly mediocre.Murray could certainly turn out to be a disappointment, but he is in a great situation and produces in the passing game. He is the poster boy for high risk-high reward, but represents some serious upside. And if you can cuff Felix to him, all the better.

 

[FF Ninja]

I agree that those totals sure look good, but mere 4.3 ypc and 8.4 ypr are not impressive averages. At least he improved upon the 4.1 ypc he put up his junior year. I think the guy would be an ideal 3rd down back in the NFL. After this year I won't be surprised if that is his role going forward...

Maybe he was incorrectly utilized in OU, but he wasn't exactly facing Alabama each week there. The Big 12 is primarily an offensive conference, so I'd expect a lot of yards and TDs out of anybody's main RB. But I'd like to see a guy do more with his opportunities than 4.1 ypc and 4.3 ypc if I'm going to draft him as a top 10 back in the NFL. Last year's small sample size was enough to get the hype train out of control. I don't think we should totally write off his performance, but I think RB10 is a steep price.

 

[LittlePhatty]

I don't think we should totally write off his performance, but I think RB10 is a steep price.

At the moment I think the difference between 2012 and 2011 is that a lot more RBs have big question marks surrounding them. I only see 3 solid picks this season: Foster, McCoy and Rice. After that it's easy to find reasons to bump other guys down. And I think that's why a lot of people might be willing to take a chance with Murray at RB10 despite only getting a short glimpse of potential last year. I also think that his ADP will shake down as the season gets closer. Guys like Forte, Charles, and Peterson could easily jump ahead of him on the list if/when their training camp efforts erase some of those question marks.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I don't think we should totally write off his performance, but I think RB10 is a steep price.

At the moment I think the difference between 2012 and 2011 is that a lot more RBs have big question marks surrounding them. I only see 3 solid picks this season: Foster, McCoy and Rice. After that it's easy to find reasons to bump other guys down. And I think that's why a lot of people might be willing to take a chance with Murray at RB10 despite only getting a short glimpse of potential last year. I also think that his ADP will shake down as the season gets closer. Guys like Forte, Charles, and Peterson could easily jump ahead of him on the list if/when their training camp efforts erase some of those question marks.

Just to play devil's advocate, a possible Rice holdout doesn't concern you? What about the Texans OLine? Doesn't the loss of Winston and Brisial concern you?

 

[-jb-]

Up. Anyone have more opinions on this guy? I didn't get to see much of his limited PT.

 

[Urinal Mint]

The offensive line is still a liability. The team will still throw heavily on 1st and 2nd down. Nothing much will change between this season and last with respect to overall production from the Dallas offense.

Barring injury:

256 rush

1126 yd

5 TD

36 rec

288 yd

0 TD

I look for a 70/30 split between Murray and Jones. I think the ceiling you can expect for Murray is about 18 carries a game. 16 carries a game seems more realistic.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

fluke

 

[Urinal Mint]

Before arguing Murray's short-yardage prowess, let's consider how poorly the Dallas OL has performed in short-yardage over the past 5 years. They're awful when they need it. You can't blame any of their short-yardage woes on the runners IMO. They do their best to scheme around it, but the simple fact of the matter is that their 3 interior OL are terrible and that's where the bread-and-butter of your short yardage run game resides.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Here's what concerns me about Murray

1. I recall him having a few good games vs. bad defenses but being pretty average otherwise.

2. He's gets hurt every year (dating back to Oklahoma) - 4 of the last 5 years?

3. Dallas doesn't score many rushing TDs, limiting his upside

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Here's what concerns me about Murray1. I recall him having a few good games vs. bad defenses but being pretty average otherwise.2. He's gets hurt every year (dating back to Oklahoma) - 4 of the last 5 years?3. Dallas doesn't score many rushing TDs, limiting his upside

that nailed ityou can lock this now.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Up. Anyone have more opinions on this guy? I didn't get to see much of his limited PT.

Opinions from different sources.My link

The Cowboys trust DeMarco Murray

There is no way to know, as we sit here in July of 2012, whether Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray is going to be the next Emmitt Smith, the next Julius Jones or where he will eventually fall on the vast spectrum in between. But as Calvin Watkins writes for ESPNDallas.com, what we do know is that the Cowboys seem to trust Murray as their workhorse back in a way that they haven't trusted very many lately:

Jason Garrett doesn't mind running the ball, as long as the offensive line and fullbacks make the necessary holes to get it going.

The numbers indicate that Garrett trusts Murray. He had five games with 20 or more carries, the most for any running back since Garrett became offensive coordinator in 2007. Murray also became the first back under Garrett to have four consecutive games with 20 or more carries. Felix Jones, Murray's backup, has had just two games with 20 or more carries since he was drafted in 2008. Marion Barber, a former starter, had four 20-carry games in 2008, but he only reached that mark once more before being released.

When I watch Murray run, I see a guy who looks like a workhorse back -- who enjoys contact, who runs hard and who isn't afraid of the workload. Now, a guy like that might not be able to hold up, long-term, in today's NFL. But the Cowboys see in Murray a back who can be their starter in the short-term -- and in a way that fewer and fewer teams are using starting running backs. This is not a time-share situation in Dallas. If Murray is recovered from his ankle injury and fully healthy, he's going to get the carries, and Jones is going to be the backup, as he was last season before Murray got hurt. How long that can last is anyone's guess, but at least for right now, Murray's the back in whom the Cowboys have put their trust.

My link

Position series: Cowboys running backs

Projected starters: RB DeMarco Murray, FB Lawrence Vickers

Reserves: RB Felix Jones, RB Phillip Tanner, RB Lance Dunbar, RB Darrell Scott, FB Shaun Chapas

Potential strength: Murray performed like an elite-level workhorse in the seven games he played as a starter before the Giants game in which he broke his ankle. He averaged 114.1 yards per game and 5.96 yards per carry during that seven-game stretch. And Jones, the fifth-year former starter, had two 100-yard games after Murray went down. So they have a high-level starter and an experienced, capable backup, and they believe Vickers will play even better than Tony Fiammetta did for them as the lead blocker last season. And Tanner is a good third running back who's shown encouraging flashes and should stick around due to his contributions on special teams. Assuming everyone's healthy, this is a unit capable of big things.

Potential weakness: Even while he was rolling up all of those yards, Murray scored just two touchdowns last year. And Jones only scored one. The Cowboys had just five rushing touchdowns as a team in 2011. Only the Cleveland Browns scored fewer. As good as Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Jason Witten can be in the red zone, it would help if the running backs posed more of a realistic threat to score at the goal line. Red-zone production is an area in which the Cowboys' running game must be better than it was last year.

Keep an eye on: The on-field relationship between Murray and Vickers. Murray and Fiammetta made a very productive team last year. The Cowboys believe that had more to do with Murray than it did with the fullback, and they think they've upgraded at fullback. But Murray had an innate sense of where Fiammetta was going to go and what would result in terms of opportunity for him thereafter. Murray said during minicamp that he's getting to know Vickers, and it's unlikely to be a problem. But that chemistry he had with the fullback last year was part of his success, so it's at least worth watching to make sure he finds something similar with the new guy.

My link

4. Don't be surprised if the running game provides the foundation: The Jets took a ground-and-pound approach to two straight AFC championship games, and it was offensive line coach Bill Callahan and his guys setting the tone. Only when the Jets became a pass-first team did Callahan bolt for greener pastures as the team missed the playoffs.

Now, Callahan is running the Cowboys' offensive line and offense in general.

An old-school coach who has a hand in designing the 2012 offense, Callahan's influence won't be minimal. Expect the Cowboys to set the tone early with their run game. Considering they boast last year's breakout star in Murray and talented-yet-mercurial Jones, can you blame them?

Murray shined last year in a fleeting spotlight that lasted only seven games, but the team was just 18th in rushing. That should change. Murray is back, and he should make an attempt to take pressure off Romo. All signs point to an increased focus on pounding the rock.

"I can see the holes open up more crisp," said Murray, who averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season. "Guys are on the same page."

Garrett has praised Callahan, both for his fresh ideas and the way he teaches. Garrett yearns for balance to maintain his team's unpredictability, and a solid run game early creates that.

"You always want to be an attacking, aggressive football team," Garrett said. "That's really important to us. But just because you're aggressive, it doesn't mean throw it every down, it doesn't mean run it every down. You have to be balanced."

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Question for the Dallas homers: do you guys really see the offense changing a ton from what they've done the past few years, particularly the redzone offense? There are reasonable arguments on both sides re: the distribution of touches between Murray and Felix, but it probably doesn't matter if Dallas continues to score 3.5 passing TDs for every running TD. I look at the Cowboys and see four Pro Bowl level guys in the passing game, and an awful interior on the o-line, so 30+ for Romo, 10 for the RBs seems like the most likely to me.

 

[Manster]

Question for the Dallas homers: do you guys really see the offense changing a ton from what they've done the past few years, particularly the redzone offense? There are reasonable arguments on both sides re: the distribution of touches between Murray and Felix, but it probably doesn't matter if Dallas continues to score 3.5 passing TDs for every running TD. I look at the Cowboys and see four Pro Bowl level guys in the passing game, and an awful interior on the o-line, so 30+ for Romo, 10 for the RBs seems like the most likely to me.

Seems reasonable to me.In the few mocks I've done recently, DeMarco was going around 1st/2nd turn, in a 12 teamer. I'm not buyin him that high. I love the guys upside. He showed nice vision, and finished runs nicely when healthy last season. But, if you are Dallas and you have two talented, yet injury prone backs, you prolly want to try and split up the touches to keep both of em (hopefully)fresh.

Dallas is gonna throw a lot. In the heat of battle, Red Jesus wants to move the ball down the field. With the questions at the interior 3 positions of the line, I dont see great power running, especially in the red zone.

WIth all that said, It was nice to see Romo take better care of the ball (overall) last season. Establishing the run takes pressure off of him. I dont know. A lot depends on how the O-line shapes up.

 

[Bankerguy]

Question for the Dallas homers: do you guys really see the offense changing a ton from what they've done the past few years, particularly the redzone offense? There are reasonable arguments on both sides re: the distribution of touches between Murray and Felix, but it probably doesn't matter if Dallas continues to score 3.5 passing TDs for every running TD. I look at the Cowboys and see four Pro Bowl level guys in the passing game, and an awful interior on the o-line, so 30+ for Romo, 10 for the RBs seems like the most likely to me.

I do think that they are going to give it a shot. I see a much bigger focus on running. Bringing in Vickers and NOT addressing the WR3 spot are telling for me.Whether they be successful or not, time will tell. It might be a work in progress.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Thx guys. I'm interested mainly coming from the Tony Romo angle -- I've owned him all over the place the last five years or so, and he's generally been undervalued by the fantasy community as a whole IMO (Peyton Manning production, Eli Manning price). Wondering if that will stay true this year in the face of Murray's arrival on the scene last year and a potential greater emphasis on the ground game. Last year, even in the games where Murray was blowing up, they were throwing to get in the endzone. If Dallas is more balanced in scoring in 2012, Eli or Rivers might be the way to go over Romo.

 

[Bankerguy]

Thx guys. I'm interested mainly coming from the Tony Romo angle -- I've owned him all over the place the last five years or so, and he's generally been undervalued by the fantasy community as a whole IMO (Peyton Manning production, Eli Manning price). Wondering if that will stay true this year in the face of Murray's arrival on the scene last year and a potential greater emphasis on the ground game. Last year, even in the games where Murray was blowing up, they were throwing to get in the endzone. If Dallas is more balanced in scoring in 2012, Eli or Rivers might be the way to go over Romo.

I too am worried about Fantasy production for Romo.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=645999

 

[mbuehner]

Hmm,

1.Suspect O-line

2.Inability to score rushing touchdowns, particularly goal line

3.Increasingly pass oriented offense

You just describe Matt Forte.

This is a passing league, there are a SMALL handful of 3-down, 350 touch backs in the league anymore, and they all get drafted in the first half of the first round. Everybody else has issues.

The only way to think about Murrays value realistically is by judging the other choices in his bucket- Marshawn Lynch (likely to miss games suspended and an erratic history), Jamaal Charles (coming off an major injury), Sproles (splitting carries like crazy, new signal caller, pure passing team), Adrian Peterson (major injury, likely to miss time early), Steven Jackson (old, bad offense, rookie competition). Sure you can make an argument for any of those guys or even all of them, but the point is they all have red flags as well. The idea that, well 'Murray has too many red flags' is true in a vacuum but irrelevant in reality- there just isnt anybody in that area that is surefire, forget about upside. Certainly you could also argue against taking a RB in this bucket at all and looking farther down in the draft for value, which makes a lot of sense but you may get a guy with a decent floor for you but are unlikely to get a top 10 ceiling.

 

[-jb-]

Hmm, 1.Suspect O-line2.Inability to score rushing touchdowns, particularly goal line3.Increasingly pass oriented offenseYou just describe Matt Forte. This is a passing league, there are a SMALL handful of 3-down, 350 touch backs in the league anymore, and they all get drafted in the first half of the first round. Everybody else has issues. The only way to think about Murrays value realistically is by judging the other choices in his bucket- Marshawn Lynch (likely to miss games suspended and an erratic history), Jamaal Charles (coming off an major injury), Sproles (splitting carries like crazy, new signal caller, pure passing team), Adrian Peterson (major injury, likely to miss time early), Steven Jackson (old, bad offense, rookie competition). Sure you can make an argument for any of those guys or even all of them, but the point is they all have red flags as well. The idea that, well 'Murray has too many red flags' is true in a vacuum but irrelevant in reality- there just isnt anybody in that area that is surefire, forget about upside. Certainly you could also argue against taking a RB in this bucket at all and looking farther down in the draft for value, which makes a lot of sense but you may get a guy with a decent floor for you but are unlikely to get a top 10 ceiling.

Good comments, and depth of the WR position makes the second round a real challenge.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I'm not sure about that Forte comparison but you make good points

FFCalculator has him as the RB10 right now, 2.03. In addition to the 9 going before him, I personally would also take Charles, Steven Jackson and Fred Jackson plus Sproles in PPR. But that kind of reinforces your point that it's a mixed bag after the first handful of RBs. Assuming the Big Three QBs are gone it makes the choices tough at that point. I would take Gronk/Graham (according to that ADP they're there on average) but otherwise would probably spit out one of those RBs, to maximize value on all of those WRs later.

 

[Sleeper 43]

im going to chime in with the offensive line perspective. In my grading, the Dallas line is among the league's worst units. To be clear I am not some sort of Cowboys hater. There is a tremendous amount of shuffling and new starters etc. Outside of Tyron Smith (who was a RT last year and an RT at USC, now being asked to play LT) there is a lack of premium talent.

Bingo!

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm not sure about that Forte comparison

Forte has proven to be a good RB over four seasons. DeMarco Murray has about four good games under his belt. And I'm no Forte fan.DeMarco Murray as a top-10 RB = shiny new toy syndrome.

 

[mbuehner]

I'm not sure about that Forte comparison

Forte has proven to be a good RB over four seasons. DeMarco Murray has about four good games under his belt. And I'm no Forte fan.DeMarco Murray as a top-10 RB = shiny new toy syndrome.

I was pointing toward Forte before he became a proven commodity. Its easy to rate guys that have already proven themselves. Again, it comes back to who you gonna choose instead? You wanna bet that SJax or fjax are gonna pop back into the top 10, or Sproles can have an even better season, or Apete or Charles bounce back? Nothing wrong with believing any of those things, but believing a guy that is an all-purpose pass catching RB able to break tackles and with great speed is just a good if not a bit better of a choice to break out is hardly crazy.The point is, as I said earlier in this thread, whats the plan? Wait for a guy to rack up 2500 AP yards and double digit TDs and then draft him in the mid-2nd? Doesnt work that way- look at where Mathews is getting drafted. You're taking a chance on somebody no matter what you do. Murray fits the mold of guys you can have great but not elite success with.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

2500 AP yards and double digit TDs

good luck with that.

 

[Pumpnick]

dallas schedule looks pretty tough

 

[mbuehner]

It was an illustration to prove a point. You want something close to guaranteed production you better check about 13 picks earlier.

 

[TwinTurbo]

It's easy to say Murray is overvalued at his current ADP in the early second round as RB10 but he moves up by default because of injuries last season to AD, Charles, and F.Jackson. Otherwise he would be probably be slotted around RB13 or later. Since there are so many question marks about any of the guys outside of RB10, I can really blame anyone for ranking him there. But I still think Felix Jones is a much better value available several rounds later and I will be avoiding Murray as a second round pick.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

It was an illustration to prove a point. You want something close to guaranteed production you better check about 13 picks earlier.

what if I want more than 2 td -- where should I look for that?

 

[jantoniosus]

I know he has a tendency to get hurt, but when comparing him to AP, Charles, F. jax, and even McFadden all of these guys have been injured. That said the injury bug should be left out of the equation. The one thing that no one has mentioned is that Murray now has a legit FB in L. Vickers to help block. Also you look at Cowboys receiving options, they are pretty thin with a hurt austin and legal issue Dez, this should (key word) get Murray a few more looks with dump off passes. Last as far as the TD, Romo was the one having issues converting in the redzone, I do believe if you look at Murray's red zone touches you will see that it was the play calling not Murrays performance. That said, I would be expecting the offensive calls to be changed up for the Cowboys now that they have a legit RB.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I know he has a tendency to get hurt, but when comparing him to AP, Charles, F. jax, and even McFadden all of these guys have been injured. That said the injury bug should be left out of the equation. The one thing that no one has mentioned is that Murray now has a legit FB in L. Vickers to help block. Also you look at Cowboys receiving options, they are pretty thin with a hurt austin and legal issue Dez, this should (key word) get Murray a few more looks with dump off passes. Last as far as the TD, Romo was the one having issues converting in the redzone, I do believe if you look at Murray's red zone touches you will see that it was the play calling not Murrays performance. That said, I would be expecting the offensive calls to be changed up for the Cowboys now that they have a legit RB.

FB Laurence Vickers was mentioned a few posts up but I agree that his addition has been glossed over.Tow years ago L-Vick was the fullback and lead blocker for RB Peyton Hillis when he had his career Madden cover boy season. Last year he was the lead blocker in Houston and he lead both Texan running backs, Ben Tate never looked as good without Vickers.He is a devastating lead blocker, if he gets out in front and is able to square his shoulders then kiss whoever he has an angle on buh-bye.The Boys haven't used the fullback under Garrett and he's never had a lead blocking weapon like Laurence Vickers.So you are correct, the addition of FB Laurence Vickers hasn't been mentioned to the degree that it should have because he is a signigicant addition as a lead blocker but one thing has to be noted.Some backs don't know how to use a FB, even a devastating lead blocker like Vickers and it does take a chemistry to develop so this is something to pay keen attention to in the preseason.

 

[jantoniosus]

you are correct on learning to use the FB and I will like to see how it works/doesn't work.

Just seems that Murray has been getting some unfair criticisms due to him getting hurt and bad play calling in the redzone. I will be curious to see how the play calling changes now that Garrett has handed the OC position off.

 

[Modog814]

I know he has a tendency to get hurt, but when comparing him to AP, Charles, F. jax, and even McFadden all of these guys have been injured. That said the injury bug should be left out of the equation. The one thing that no one has mentioned is that Murray now has a legit FB in L. Vickers to help block. Also you look at Cowboys receiving options, they are pretty thin with a hurt austin and legal issue Dez, this should (key word) get Murray a few more looks with dump off passes. Last as far as the TD, Romo was the one having issues converting in the redzone, I do believe if you look at Murray's red zone touches you will see that it was the play calling not Murrays performance. That said, I would be expecting the offensive calls to be changed up for the Cowboys now that they have a legit RB.

FB Laurence Vickers was mentioned a few posts up but I agree that his addition has been glossed over.Tow years ago L-Vick was the fullback and lead blocker for RB Peyton Hillis when he had his career Madden cover boy season. Last year he was the lead blocker in Houston and he lead both Texan running backs, Ben Tate never looked as good without Vickers.He is a devastating lead blocker, if he gets out in front and is able to square his shoulders then kiss whoever he has an angle on buh-bye.

The Boys haven't used the fullback under Garrett and he's never had a lead blocking weapon like Laurence Vickers.

So you are correct, the addition of FB Laurence Vickers hasn't been mentioned to the degree that it should have because he is a signigicant addition as a lead blocker but one thing has to be noted.

Some backs don't know how to use a FB, even a devastating lead blocker like Vickers and it does take a chemistry to develop so this is something to pay keen attention to in the preseason.

Pretty sure Vickers wasn't on the field much last year with the Texans. Casey played Fullback most of the time.

 

[Shutout]

How many of those occurences are by the same small number of players doing it repeatedly (e.g., Foster the past two years)? Point being: its an achievement that is reserved for the best of the best or at least uncommonly better players of the league and it just seems a little pre-mature to annoint this guy as a top 5 Rb in the league based on a small sample size that ended exactly as was predicted by the people that were skeptical of drafting him warned, playing on a team that passes so much and runs so little at the goal line.

1700 AP is not a lofty goal if you factor for missed games- This season there were 7 backs that projected out over 1700y over 16 games (and we're not talking about dudes that played 3 games, the names are familiar and obvious). Last season there were 8. Its a passing league, but that also means more receiving yards, which makes a guy like Murray MORE valuable relative to many backs. And you have to factor for missed games, unless you are planning on dropping Arian Foster and Matt Forte way down in your rankings too. Whatever you do, you should do it consistently. Not many leagues award points based on a seasons worth of production, its the production game by game that matters and the season total is just shorthand.

For me, it just strikes me funny that a guy like Murray can play half a dozen games and get this kind of hype and following behind them, yet a guy like foster played a whole season and led the NFL in every major RB category when he came out and was heavily debated the next year. I'm not saying Murray can't be everything that a lot of you guys that are bullish on him say he WILL be. I'm just surprised by how easily it is assumed he will be.

So your strategy is to wait for a guy to put up top 5 numbers over the season and then draft him in the 3rd round? Sounds legit.

No, I was actually one of the very first people to grab guys like foster and Tamme in my leagues. My point was its situaitonal with every player and you have to either see it or not. So its odd that some of us saw guys like Foster and Tamme, saw all the ability, and did not have a concern about them being injured often. Those players then played and did stay healthy and yet they were largely ripped on. In foster's case, he was heavily ripped on...to the point where a lot of people were saying he would lose the job to Tate last year or bei in a solid timeshare. Yet, you have a guy like Murray who shows a lot of ability in his own right but DOES have a history of injury and DID in fact get injured twice last year. Yet, he is largely being conversed as a top 5 and top 10 RB. Given what I see and especially considering the competiton of RBS he would have to bump t be a top 5 or 10 RB, I just think its much.Murray has produced in games. I just think its unrealistic to think you are going to have him produce, overall, as well as a lot of people say. The beauty of it is I can be dead wrong or right. that's why we all have different values and different levels of success in FF. I just see that there is a monority of us who point out the situaiton he came in, the vast good fortune he had to face the teams he did when he did, the fact that he got to start fresh after a month into the season, the fact that his YPC DID wear down within the 1st month of him starting, the fact that Felix Jones DID eat half his pie when they were both playing. Just tons of things that people seem to be glossing over when they put Murray up there so high. But the minority CAN be correct so I don't worry about it. This will be one of the most interesting players to follow this year, for me.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Pretty sure Vickers wasn't on the field much last year with the Texans. Casey played Fullback most of the time.

I am not a Texan fan so I didn't track his PT but I know for certain he was the FB last year when the Texans faced the Browns and a quick check of last year's Houston Texan stats show that by far the best rushing game of the 2011 season by the Texans was that game where they rushed for 261 yards and Laurence Vickers was absolutely killing in that game where both Arian Foster AND Ben Tate rushef for over 100 yeards individually.The only other game in 2011 where the Texans eclipsed 200 yards rushing was a couple of weeks before that game and Vickers played in that game as well. So the two best games rushing by the Texans happened with Laurence Vickers as the FB lead blocker.

 

[Dismattle]

Jerry Jones Win now http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/7989772/dallas-cowboys-owner-jerry-jones-senses-urgency-win-now imo this means T Dorsett and E Smith winning games (true feature back) Now the Cowboys will probably use the common sence of today's game to see what they can get out of Felix Jones, which negates a "Win now" attitude, But I would take a few minutes to look at actual ceiling of Murray. Now I cant guess what ceiling would be, but I would suspect 300 rushing attempts, 40 receptions, 10-12 TD's this Season.

Humble n hungry!

"Those are two legends, two Hall of Famers," Murray said. "That has never crossed my mind, to be compared with them or to have anything to do with them."

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/08/06/4159735/dallas-cowboys-expect-demarco.html#storylink=cpy#storylink=cpy

Felix is in contract mode, Dallas has said things like player w the hot hand in the past, which doesnt bode well w me. The worst case scenario for Murray would be a role similiar to Barber's in the past, which could still mean: must start(ie. no BN based on matchup), big points, and a high trade value.

p.s. I dont like guessing stats, it willl be fun to check back next Season!

 

[Bracie Smathers]

you are correct on learning to use the FB and I will like to see how it works/doesn't work.Just seems that Murray has been getting some unfair criticisms due to him getting hurt and bad play calling in the redzone. I will be curious to see how the play calling changes now that Garrett has handed the OC position off.

I wouldn't pay much attention to any unfair criticisms but the play calling in the redzone was an issue.The Boys called more red zone and goal line passing plays, by-far, than any other team in the NFL.It was more than just a personnel issue but personnel did play a role in the wide disperity of plays near the goal line so a lead blocker like Vickers is a clear sign that they will try to punch it in more often on short yardage situations.

 

[Modog814]

Pretty sure Vickers wasn't on the field much last year with the Texans. Casey played Fullback most of the time.

I am not a Texan fan so I didn't track his PT but I know for certain he was the FB last year when the Texans faced the Browns and a quick check of last year's Houston Texan stats show that by far the best rushing game of the 2011 season by the Texans was that game where they rushed for 261 yards and Laurence Vickers was absolutely killing in that game where both Arian Foster AND Ben Tate rushef for over 100 yeards individually.The only other game in 2011 where the Texans eclipsed 200 yards rushing was a couple of weeks before that game and Vickers played in that game as well. So the two best games rushing by the Texans happened with Laurence Vickers as the FB lead blocker.

Fair enough. I didn't see every Texan game either but the ones I did see, they tended to have Casey lined up in the back field.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Pretty sure Vickers wasn't on the field much last year with the Texans. Casey played Fullback most of the time.

I am not a Texan fan so I didn't track his PT but I know for certain he was the FB last year when the Texans faced the Browns and a quick check of last year's Houston Texan stats show that by far the best rushing game of the 2011 season by the Texans was that game where they rushed for 261 yards and Laurence Vickers was absolutely killing in that game where both Arian Foster AND Ben Tate rushef for over 100 yeards individually.The only other game in 2011 where the Texans eclipsed 200 yards rushing was a couple of weeks before that game and Vickers played in that game as well. So the two best games rushing by the Texans happened with Laurence Vickers as the FB lead blocker.

Fair enough. I didn't see every Texan game either but the ones I did see, they tended to have Casey lined up in the back field.

Oh and I completely spaced out and forgot to mention that Vickers was the lead blocker for RB Jamal Lewis when he had back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons and he also was the lead blocker for RB Jerome Harrison who had the third-best ALL-TIME individual rushing performance in NFL history, 286 yards 3 TDs VS KC.Jamal Lewis had the best single season rushing performance by any Cleveland Brown since Hall of Famer Jim Brown with Laurence Vickers as his lead blocker and speaking of Hall of Fame. Vickers was the lead blocker for Harrison and his jersey is enshrined in the HOF for his performance.So the addition of L-Vick has not been mentioned to the degree that it should.The chemistry has to develop but if it does then we could see some huge dividends in the form of great individual games and more scores by DeMarco Murray.

 

[Ridgelake]

I know he has a tendency to get hurt, but when comparing him to AP, Charles, F. jax, and even McFadden all of these guys have been injured. That said the injury bug should be left out of the equation. The one thing that no one has mentioned is that Murray now has a legit FB in L. Vickers to help block. Also you look at Cowboys receiving options, they are pretty thin with a hurt austin and legal issue Dez, this should (key word) get Murray a few more looks with dump off passes. Last as far as the TD, Romo was the one having issues converting in the redzone, I do believe if you look at Murray's red zone touches you will see that it was the play calling not Murrays performance. That said, I would be expecting the offensive calls to be changed up for the Cowboys now that they have a legit RB.

FB Laurence Vickers was mentioned a few posts up but I agree that his addition has been glossed over.Tow years ago L-Vick was the fullback and lead blocker for RB Peyton Hillis when he had his career Madden cover boy season. Last year he was the lead blocker in Houston and he lead both Texan running backs, Ben Tate never looked as good without Vickers.

He is a devastating lead blocker, if he gets out in front and is able to square his shoulders then kiss whoever he has an angle on buh-bye.

The Boys haven't used the fullback under Garrett and he's never had a lead blocking weapon like Laurence Vickers.

So you are correct, the addition of FB Laurence Vickers hasn't been mentioned to the degree that it should have because he is a signigicant addition as a lead blocker but one thing has to be noted.

Some backs don't know how to use a FB, even a devastating lead blocker like Vickers and it does take a chemistry to develop so this is something to pay keen attention to in the preseason.

That statement is absolutely false. He's used one every year as OC and HC. Last year, it was Tony Fiametta. And when Fiametta was hurt, he'd move a TE into the lead block position, usually John Phillips. FB is a staple of the Norv Turner/Don Coryell offense that is the basis of Garrett's offense.I won't argue that they've had trouble finding a FB who can not only lead block, but also catch a pass in the flat. They've tried repeatedly over the last several years to get a dual threat guy of that nature. They've had guys who could thump, but not catch. Vickers is just the latest attempt to find the dual threat.

There was significant discussion last year about how the Rbs were far more effective with Fiametta as the lead block versus Phillips. They were. Phillips is too tall to consistently get leverage on LBs and DBs in space. He's an average at best lead blocker. Fiametta is above average and it showed in Dallas' running results. The hope is that Vickers will have equal or better success. And be able to threaten the defense by catching a pass.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I know he has a tendency to get hurt, but when comparing him to AP, Charles, F. jax, and even McFadden all of these guys have been injured. That said the injury bug should be left out of the equation. The one thing that no one has mentioned is that Murray now has a legit FB in L. Vickers to help block. Also you look at Cowboys receiving options, they are pretty thin with a hurt austin and legal issue Dez, this should (key word) get Murray a few more looks with dump off passes. Last as far as the TD, Romo was the one having issues converting in the redzone, I do believe if you look at Murray's red zone touches you will see that it was the play calling not Murrays performance. That said, I would be expecting the offensive calls to be changed up for the Cowboys now that they have a legit RB.

FB Laurence Vickers was mentioned a few posts up but I agree that his addition has been glossed over.Tow years ago L-Vick was the fullback and lead blocker for RB Peyton Hillis when he had his career Madden cover boy season. Last year he was the lead blocker in Houston and he lead both Texan running backs, Ben Tate never looked as good without Vickers.

He is a devastating lead blocker, if he gets out in front and is able to square his shoulders then kiss whoever he has an angle on buh-bye.

The Boys haven't used the fullback under Garrett and he's never had a lead blocking weapon like Laurence Vickers.

So you are correct, the addition of FB Laurence Vickers hasn't been mentioned to the degree that it should have because he is a signigicant addition as a lead blocker but one thing has to be noted.

Some backs don't know how to use a FB, even a devastating lead blocker like Vickers and it does take a chemistry to develop so this is something to pay keen attention to in the preseason.

That statement is absolutely false. He's used one every year as OC and HC. Last year, it was Tony Fiametta. And when Fiametta was hurt, he'd move a TE into the lead block position, usually John Phillips. FB is a staple of the Norv Turner/Don Coryell offense that is the basis of Garrett's offense.I won't argue that they've had trouble finding a FB who can not only lead block, but also catch a pass in the flat. They've tried repeatedly over the last several years to get a dual threat guy of that nature. They've had guys who could thump, but not catch. Vickers is just the latest attempt to find the dual threat.

There was significant discussion last year about how the Rbs were far more effective with Fiametta as the lead block versus Phillips. They were. Phillips is too tall to consistently get leverage on LBs and DBs in space. He's an average at best lead blocker. Fiametta is above average and it showed in Dallas' running results. The hope is that Vickers will have equal or better success. And be able to threaten the defense by catching a pass.

You are correct sir and I am completely wrong on the fact that the Dallas Cowboys did use a fullback last year by the name of Fiametta.I actually had heard that but had forgotten.

Once again, you are right and I am wrong.

 

[mbuehner]

Something else to consider about Dallas 5 rushing touchdowns last season- its unusual. Since 2002, only 11 teams have had 5 or less rushing touchdowns in a season. Moreover, no team has had back to back seasons with 5 or less. The average increase from a year with 5 or less TDs to the following year was 5.9 touchdowns.

That puts the Cowboys at 11 TDs based on just the average bounce back from an anomalous lack of rushing TDs. Slotting Murray for 7 or 8 of those (assuming he stays healthy) is hardly crazy considering he is the goal line back, and perhaps judging that the Cowboy rushing game isn't nearly as bad as the average 5 or under rushing team. There were just some BAD offenses on that list- the average number of wins was 4.6 excluding Dallas in 2011. Dallas was 8-8, they are just a much better football team that the 'average' no rushing TD scoring team.

Dallas should score twice as many rushing touchdowns judging by history, and as many as a total of 15 wouldn't be outlandish or unprecedented. If you are trying to project Murray based off last years rushing TD totals you are going to aim too low.