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DEN or PIT will win because... (1 Viewer)

moleculo

Footballguy
AFC championship game, in Mile High Stadium. I haven't thought about this game much yet - before the chest thumping starts, let's hear some rational reasons why Pit will win, or why Den will win.To me, they look like very evenly matched teams (again). Both teams love to run. Both teams have excellent defense. Both teams just beat teams with arguably the best two QB's in the game. Both teams have long-tenured coaches, with varying degrees of sucess in the playoffs.Who will ocme out on top when it matters the most and why?

 
Denver will win because the Steelers are spent..Last week, beating The Bengals and now Beating The Colts. Now having to travel to Denver.. Just don't see a team getting the Emotions up for 3 straight weeks. Plus I feel Denver's Defense > Then Colts Defense.

 
Denver will win because Ron Dayne will sneak into the Steelers hotel and eat all the pre-game meals and then the Steelers will have no energy.

 
Denver is STILL at home (where they're 9-0 this season).Denver's turnover margin is now tied for the league best at +24.Denver has STILL only lost the turnover battle once all season.Denver STILL has the most wins and best winning percentage against winning teams in the NFL.Not that Pittsburgh is doomed from the outset. Denver traditionally struggles running against the 3-4 defense.

 
Because for Bettis to win the SB in his hometown in the final game of his career is the perfect storybook ending for one of the best AND classiest players in the NFL. Pitts O and D is better than N.E.s. No disrespect, N.E. is still very good, just a step down from what they were. N.E. didn't have a running game to help keep pressure off Brady and Pitts is one of the best. Pitts D will give Plummer fits. Yeah, he's improved since being on the Cardinals... but not THAT much.After Denver, not only will Pitt be the 1st 6th seed to go, but will have beaten the #1, #2 and #3 seed on the way. :towelwave:

 
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Because for Bettis to win the SB in his hometown in the final game of his career is the perfect storybook ending for one of the best AND classiest players in the NFL. Pitts O and D is better than N.E.s. No disrespect, N.E. is still very good, just a step down from what they were. N.E. didn't have a running game to help keep pressure off Brady and Pitts is one of the best. Pitts D will give Plummer fits. Yeah, he's improved since being on the Cardinals... but not THAT much.

After Denver, not only will Pitt be the 1st 6th seed to go, but will have beaten the #1, #2 and #3 seed on the way.

:towelwave:
I agree that Pitt is better on defense than New England, and I've said since the regular season that I would rather play New England than Pitt in the postseason... but no way is Pitt a better offense than New England. I just don't see it.Also, I disagree about Plummer. He really HAS improved that much since his days in Arizona. And it's not just this season- for the last 3 years, he's been DRASTICALLY better than he was in Arizona.

 
Because for Bettis to win the SB in his hometown in the final game of his career is the perfect storybook ending for one of the best AND classiest players in the NFL. Pitts O and D is better than N.E.s. No disrespect, N.E. is still very good, just a step down from what they were. N.E. didn't have a running game to help keep pressure off Brady and Pitts is one of the best. Pitts D will give Plummer fits. Yeah, he's improved since being on the Cardinals... but not THAT much.

After Denver, not only will Pitt be the 1st 6th seed to go, but will have beaten the #1, #2 and #3 seed on the way.

:towelwave:
I agree that Pitt is better on defense than New England, and I've said since the regular season that I would rather play New England than Pitt in the postseason... but no way is Pitt a better offense than New England. I just don't see it.
The Pats were playing with a banged up OLine (no koppen, no light) and Corey Dillon was not the same RB he was in the playoffs last year. Not to mention that Ben has played better than Brady this year in the playoffs. Of course, if the Steelers give the ball away as much as the Pats did Saturday, they will lose too.

 
Pittsburgh's offense has looked great in the postseason, but the Bengals and Colts defenses aren't exactly the '85 Bears, you know? Denver's defense is better and will give Pittsburgh a much tougher time than their first two playoff opponents did. I do expect this to be a low-scoring game. I can see it being a 16-13 game or something like that.

 
Because for Bettis to win the SB in his hometown in the final game of his career is the perfect storybook ending for one of the best AND classiest players in the NFL. Pitts O and D is better than N.E.s. No disrespect, N.E. is still very good, just a step down from what they were. N.E. didn't have a running game to help keep pressure off Brady and Pitts is one of the best. Pitts D will give Plummer fits. Yeah, he's improved since being on the Cardinals... but not THAT much.

After Denver, not only will Pitt be the 1st 6th seed to go, but will have beaten the #1, #2 and #3 seed on the way.

:towelwave:
I agree that Pitt is better on defense than New England, and I've said since the regular season that I would rather play New England than Pitt in the postseason... but no way is Pitt a better offense than New England. I just don't see it.
The Pats were playing with a banged up OLine (no koppen, no light) and Corey Dillon was not the same RB he was in the playoffs last year. Not to mention that Ben has played better than Brady this year in the playoffs. Of course, if the Steelers give the ball away as much as the Pats did Saturday, they will lose too.
The Pats were playing with a banged up offensive line all season. They still finished 7th in yards (to Pitt's 16th), 6th in first downs (to Pitt's 17th), 8th in 3rd down conversion% (to Pitt's 23rd), and only one slot behind Pitt in scoring despite 12 fewer takeaways.The Steelers are a better team than the Pats were, but I still prefer New England's offense.

 
The Pats were playing with a banged up offensive line all season. They still finished 7th in yards (to Pitt's 16th), 6th in first downs (to Pitt's 17th), 8th in 3rd down conversion% (to Pitt's 23rd), and only one slot behind Pitt in scoring despite 12 fewer takeaways.
I bet those numbers look a lot closer if you throw out of the games with Maddox and Batch in, and only look at how the steelers O did with Big Ben in.
 
The Pats were playing with a banged up offensive line all season. They still finished 7th in yards (to Pitt's 16th), 6th in first downs (to Pitt's 17th), 8th in 3rd down conversion% (to Pitt's 23rd), and only one slot behind Pitt in scoring despite 12 fewer takeaways.
I bet those numbers look a lot closer if you throw out of the games with Maddox and Batch in, and only look at how the steelers O did with Big Ben in.
And they're a lot further apart if you throw out the games with Dillon out, and account for the fact that New England played almost the entire year starting two rookies on the line because their regular starters were out with injuries. What's your point? All teams dealt with injuries. Pittsburgh probably had less to deal with than New England, in that regard. Injuries or no injuries, NE's offense outproduced Pitt's. Don't take it as an insult to Pittsburgh, because New England had a great offense. Pittsburgh was a better team, but NE was a better offense.San Diego had a better offense than either team, but I don't think that you'll argue that both teams are clearly superior to the Chargers.

 
Denver will win because the Steelers are spent..

Last week, beating The Bengals and now Beating The Colts.

Now having to travel to Denver..

Just don't see a team getting the Emotions up for 3 straight weeks. Plus I feel Denver's Defense > Then Colts Defense.
You may be on to something. The Steelers' playoffs began back in week 13, where they had to win their last 4 regular season games to get into the post season.That, coupled with the whirlwind roller coaster rider v. the Colts, the flight backt to Pittsburgh and then a flight out to Denver all adds up to a serious emotional drain for the Steelers.

I know this is the pinnacle of sports, but they are human. Perhaps they can channel the weariness to some form of "It's gotta be our destiny to win the Super Bowl" type of thinking.

 
At a neutral site, I would like Pitt's chances because their D is better. Denver could have a tough time getting the run game going, which is vital to their success. Plummer's mobility will be a key to slow down the Pitt attack, however. If Plummer can run a few bootlegs, it will open up the whole offense. But, it's not a neutral site. It's the best home field in the NFL, bar none. And Pitt is more banged up, with a day less rest. I really worry about Ben's arm considering he threw like 2 or 3 ugly passes vs. about 15 or 20 runs after he took that hit. That could mean something...or not. Denver should win this game, but I wouldn't say their chances are more than 2/3. No matter who is left in the finals, we should have a good SB matchup with a low spread. I actually like the NFC's chances this year as whoever survives that game healthy will be very solid.

 
Ben has played better than Brady this year in the playoffs.
:goodposting:
Of course, if the Steelers give the ball away as much as the Pats did Saturday, they will lose too.
As would any team. Steelers will win because they'll keep Denver under 100 on the ground and force Jake to make mental errors.

The question here is which QB has the worse facial hair.

 
Steelers will win because they have those cool towels :towelwave: Keeping the Broncos under 100 yards rushing is not enough....the Pats did that.Not turning the ball over will be key. I think the Steelers and Broncos match up well, the same way I thought the Patriots and the Broncos did. The one that does not cough up the ball will win.

 
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Keeping the Broncos under 100 yards rushing is not enough....the Pats did that.
Fair enough, do I need to state "not turn the ball over 5 times"?Or is my agreement with Bloom enough to cover that?

 
Denver will win because Jake Plummer is not the statue that Peyton Manning is. It's easy to call a blitz on every down when you know where the QB will be. Denver moves the pocket, can run on anyone, and has a cover corner that can shut down one side of the field.

Pittsburgh beat Cincy because Palmer went down on the first play. Pittsburgh should have lost the game yesterday, how Vanderjagt misses that kick like that is beyond me.

Pittsburgh is extremely fortunate to be where they are. The clock strikes midnight this weekend.

 
Denver will win b/c they're at home and Big Ben's arm and thumb are banged up. Did you see how badly Big Ben played after he hurt his arm?

 
Points for Pitt:Denver did not play well against NE. The Pats beat themselves, Pit shouldn't do that.Pitt is playing at an extremely high level.Pitt is not one dimensional like NE. They will have a hard time running the ball, but will be significantly better than NE.I think Pit will put more pressure on Plummer than NE did.Points for Den:Home field.The extra week off.Pit has had to travel 3 weeks in a row.This is a hard game for me to pick. On a neutral field with equal rest I think Pit wins easily. I honestly don't see many matchups that favor the Broncs but you can't overlook the benefit or extra rest and home field at this time of year. Pit will win a passionate game or Denver will win an ugly one. Right now my pick is Denver.

 
Denver will win because Jake Plummer is not the statue that Peyton Manning is. It's easy to call a blitz on every down when you know where the QB will be. Denver moves the pocket, can run on anyone, and has a cover corner that can shut down one side of the field.

Pittsburgh beat Cincy because Palmer went down on the first play. Pittsburgh should have lost the game yesterday, how Vanderjagt misses that kick like that is beyond me.

Pittsburgh is extremely fortunate to be where they are. The clock strikes midnight this weekend.
I agree with the Denver pick but:Plummer did not play very well last week when he was flushed out of the pocket, there were inaccurate throws and an INT.

Denver did not run last week, so they can't run on everyone.

Pittsburgh is NOT lucky to be were they are. Anyone who thinks they didn't play better than Indy yesterday has their homer glasses on. Also don't forget that wasn't a game winning kick, it was a game tying one.

 
Denver will win because Jake Plummer is not the statue that Peyton Manning is. It's easy to call a blitz on every down when you know where the QB will be. Denver moves the pocket, can run on anyone, and has a cover corner that can shut down one side of the field.

Pittsburgh beat Cincy because Palmer went down on the first play. Pittsburgh should have lost the game yesterday, how Vanderjagt misses that kick like that is beyond me.

Pittsburgh is extremely fortunate to be where they are. The clock strikes midnight this weekend.
The Broncos ability to move the pocket and Jake's ability to throw on the run definitely worries me. The Broncos running game doesn't worry me nearly as much because (1) they have a history of struggling to run against 3-4 defenses and (2) the Steelers are very difficicult to run on consistently.As for your other points, the very likely would've beaten Cincy no matter what happened to Palmer. It's very unfortunate that we'll never know what would've happened, but the Bengals defense couldn't do anything to stop the Steelers' offense in any of their 3 matchups.

And the game yesterday shouldn't have come down to the missed field goal. Polamalu in effect should've ended the game with 5 minutes left on the interception, and only one of the most blatantly bad calls most people have ever seen prevented it. The Steelers outplayed the Colts yesterday and deserved to win, and that opinion is shared by just about everyone who watched the game.

Both the Broncos and Steelers are going to have their hands full this weekend.

 
Points for Pitt:

Denver did not play well against NE. The Pats beat themselves, Pit shouldn't do that.

Pitt is playing at an extremely high level.

Pitt is not one dimensional like NE. They will have a hard time running the ball, but will be significantly better than NE.

I think Pit will put more pressure on Plummer than NE did.

Points for Den:

Home field.

The extra week off.

Pit has had to travel 3 weeks in a row.

This is a hard game for me to pick. On a neutral field with equal rest I think Pit wins easily. I honestly don't see many matchups that favor the Broncs but you can't overlook the benefit or extra rest and home field at this time of year. Pit will win a passionate game or Denver will win an ugly one. Right now my pick is Denver.
:goodposting: this is an even fair analysis. steelers are playing better, but denver has more external factors in their favor. very close matchup

 
On a neutral field with equal rest I think Pit wins easily.
:goodposting: this is an even fair analysis.
:lmao:
ok maybe that part was slanted to the steelers, but the gist of it is right on. If both teams play the way they did this weekend, the steelers win. The analysis lays out the good reasons that either team could win. i dont think the steelers win "easily" on a neutral field with equal rest, but i think they win for sure.
 
Pittsburgh should have lost the game yesterday, how Vanderjagt misses that kick like that is beyond me.
Did you watch the game? The Colts were luck to lose by ONLY 3 points. The Steelers were clearly the better team and Vanderjagt missing that kick (which would have only tied the game) simply prevented what would have been highway robbery (had the Colts then won in OT).
 
On a neutral field with equal rest I think Pit wins easily.
:goodposting: this is an even fair analysis.
:lmao:
ok maybe that part was slanted to the steelers, but the gist of it is right on. If both teams play the way they did this weekend, the steelers win. The analysis lays out the good reasons that either team could win. i dont think the steelers win "easily" on a neutral field with equal rest, but i think they win for sure.
Is this related to the "NE has never lost a playoff game with Brady as QB"? How do you expect both teams to play exactly the way they did this weekend? The matchups of strengths/weaknesses is different with different teams, turnovers are different, weather can dictate different circumstances, etc. etc. etc. A lot of NE fans & a huge predominance of the "experts" in the media thought NE would win easily in DEN.
 
On a neutral field with equal rest I think Pit wins easily.
:goodposting: this is an even fair analysis.
:lmao:
ok maybe that part was slanted to the steelers, but the gist of it is right on. If both teams play the way they did this weekend, the steelers win. The analysis lays out the good reasons that either team could win. i dont think the steelers win "easily" on a neutral field with equal rest, but i think they win for sure.
Is this related to the "NE has never lost a playoff game with Brady as QB"? How do you expect both teams to play exactly the way they did this weekend? The matchups of strengths/weaknesses is different with different teams, turnovers are different, weather can dictate different circumstances, etc. etc. etc. A lot of NE fans & a huge predominance of the "experts" in the media thought NE would win easily in DEN.
Im not saying both teams will play exactly the way they did this weekend, but its undeniable that the Steelers had a better game on both sides of the ball than the Broncs did this weekend. Brady was able to pass at will in the second half, and the broncs O did very little that was meaningful in the win. the TD drives were 3, 1, and 1 play, all set up by turnovers. of course everything changes with the matchup, but the steelers are playing better football right now. the experts were even more unanimous about the colts winning this weekend than the pats winning. from a conditions perspective, the steelers were at big disadvantage this weekend with the noise (closed stadium) and the fact that the colts are a team built for dome games. thats about equal to the thin air advantage the broncs get if you ask me.

we can go back and forth, the main point is that its an even matchup- strength against strength on both sides of the ball.

 
Just thought I'd add one more reason I think Denver wins this game.Altitude... :towelwave: Watching the Pat vs. Bronco game I saw 2 or 3 times the Pats using Oxygen Masks.Now we all know of Bettis's Asthma problems, Throw in the Altitude and it's just one more weapon the Bronco's have against the Visiting Teams.

 
The Steelers will win because Roethlisberger's continually underthrown long balls will go 5 yards further in Denver and be caught in stride for TDs.

 
we can go back and forth, the main point is that its an even matchup- strength against strength on both sides of the ball.
See, now we have a basis for a reasonable discussion, instead of the "PIT is invincible" rhetoric.PIT's & DEN's strengths & weaknesses really balance out both on O & on D. DEN typically runs the ball well & PIT is strong against the run. DEN doesn't pass the ball a lot & is very average doing so, and PIT's pass D is average also. PIT runs the ball much better than it passes the ball, and DEN's D stops the run much better than it stops the pass. DEN holds an edge in 3rd down conversion percentage, in time of possession, and in turnover margin, but they aren't huge differences. DEN played better this year against playoff teams. Both teams would much prefer to hold onto the ball with runs, use the run to set up the pass, and not make mistakes while trying to get an advantage forcing a mistake by the other team. This ought to be a slobber-knocker, as both teams have strong D-lines, fast LBs, and like to hit across the board.The meaningful advantages that DEN really has is having the home game (which turned out to be significant with NE - NE stalled a few drives with penalties that could be attributed to crowd noise, especially in the first half), the first round bye, and Cowher's history in the playoffs. That ought to be enough unless PIT wins the TO battle - I figure they'd most likely need an edge of +2 or better, which is certainly possible.
 
we can go back and forth, the main point is that its an even matchup- strength against strength on both sides of the ball.
See, now we have a basis for a reasonable discussion, instead of the "PIT is invincible" rhetoric.PIT's & DEN's strengths & weaknesses really balance out both on O & on D. DEN typically runs the ball well & PIT is strong against the run. DEN doesn't pass the ball a lot & is very average doing so, and PIT's pass D is average also. PIT runs the ball much better than it passes the ball, and DEN's D stops the run much better than it stops the pass. DEN holds an edge in 3rd down conversion percentage, in time of possession, and in turnover margin, but they aren't huge differences. DEN played better this year against playoff teams.

Both teams would much prefer to hold onto the ball with runs, use the run to set up the pass, and not make mistakes while trying to get an advantage forcing a mistake by the other team. This ought to be a slobber-knocker, as both teams have strong D-lines, fast LBs, and like to hit across the board.

The meaningful advantages that DEN really has is having the home game (which turned out to be significant with NE - NE stalled a few drives with penalties that could be attributed to crowd noise, especially in the first half), the first round bye, and Cowher's history in the playoffs. That ought to be enough unless PIT wins the TO battle - I figure they'd most likely need an edge of +2 or better, which is certainly possible.
:goodposting:
 
Without doing any numerical comparisons or rational analysis, my thoughts on this game have to do with Den O vs Pitt D. Much has been written about Den’s struggles against the 3-4. I think that there is a different element in play here. I believe Denver’s offense is based on mis-direction, specifically with respect to cutback lanes, bootlegs, reverses, etc. This offense is much more effective against defenses that play on emotion and are less disciplined – as opposed to smart, disciplined teams who stay home. Examples of the two types include KC – they over pursue everybody and are rarely at home. I have noticed Shanahan has run lots of reverses vs KC in the past – it’s almost a given to be in the playbook. New England, on the other hand, is of the disciplined variety – they are almost always at home, and I attribute some poorer performance last week to this.Breaking down the offense in particular – stretch play vs boot-leg. These plays can be run out of multiple formations, but give exactly the same look to the defense. If the weak-side DL or LB reads run and bites on the play-action fake, he will run down the LoS, dropping contain responsibilities, and Jake is free on the boot. On the other hand, if he plays pass and it is a run, the cutback lane will be wide open. This is what the Broncos LOVE to do, and when it works, it is a thing of beauty. You might note that the bootleg was hardly run vs NE, and only not until the second half, when NE was fully expecting a run.So – what type of front 7 do the Steelers have? Are they disciplined? Do they stay at home? Or do they play on emotion, and try to get a jump on the play before it develops? My guess is that Shanahan will use Polamalu’s aggression against him and will scheme to catch him out of position for a big gain. I’m not exactly sure how – maybe they will catch him cheating towards the LOS and burn him on a play-action pass, not really sure. But, you can bet that they will try something.For comparison, Indy does very little mis-direction. True, peyton has one of the better play-action motions in the business, but the intent there is to slow-down the pass-rush, not to get the QB into space or set up a cut-back lane. Denver O is a different animal than Indy O and success against one does not necessarily guarantee success against the other.

 
PIT's & DEN's strengths & weaknesses really balance out both on O & on D. DEN typically runs the ball well & PIT is strong against the run. DEN doesn't pass the ball a lot & is very average doing so, and PIT's pass D is average also. PIT runs the ball much better than it passes the ball, and DEN's D stops the run much better than it stops the pass. DEN holds an edge in 3rd down conversion percentage, in time of possession, and in turnover margin, but they aren't huge differences. DEN played better this year against playoff teams.
Denver faced BY FAR the fewest rushing attempts in the entire NFL this season (THIRTY NINE fewer than second-place Kansas City), and allowed 4.0 yards per carry (16th in the NFL) when teams DID run.Denver faced BY FAR the most passing attempts in the entire NFL this season (THIRTY THREE more than second-place NYG), and allowed 6.25 yards per attempt (4th in the NFL) when teams DID pass. They also allowed the third lowest completion percentage, and the fourth lowest opponent passer rating.

Denver's run defense is an average unit, drastically overrated because it faced so few attempts. Denver's pass defense is a dominant unit, drastically UNDERrated because it faced so MANY attempts.

Also, Pittsburgh needs to be wary of Tatum Bell this week. He didn't do much against New England last week, but New England leads the league in allowing the FEWEST yards on runs of 10+ yards... for the third straight season. No other team has even been in the top 10 for all three seasons. This means that teams almost NEVER break long runs against New England. The longest run NE allowed was the 68 yarder back in week 8 by Tatum Bell. The second longest run NE allowed was... the 20 yarder, back in week 8 by Tatum Bell. No other runningback broke a 20+ yard run against New England (and that includes Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Warrick Dunn, etc). Tatum Bell really didn't stand a chance to do some damage to New England. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is ripe for some huge gainers.

 
Denver's run defense is an average unit, drastically overrated because it faced so few attempts. Denver's pass defense is a dominant unit, drastically UNDERrated because it faced so MANY attempts.
:no: If you honestly believe what you are writing here, I respectfully respond that you either haven't watched DEN play much this year or your understanding of the game isn't as acute as you would lend one to believe that it is.
 
Denver's run defense is an average unit, drastically overrated because it faced so few attempts. Denver's pass defense is a dominant unit, drastically UNDERrated because it faced so MANY attempts.
:no: If you honestly believe what you are writing here, I respectfully respond that you either haven't watched DEN play much this year or your understanding of the game isn't as acute as you would lend one to believe that it is.
I agree w/ SSoG. Denver is ranked 16th in the league with respect to ypc, while their pass D is ranked 6th in terms of yards per attempt. I believe that from a macro-point of view, the run/pass mix a team faces over a 16 game season is a function of how the games in general are going - if a team plays with the lead for a majority of the time, opposition will tend to pass on it more. This is the case with Denver, as they led the league (33 more attempts vs next on the list ) in passes attempted against, and is dead last in rushes (39 fewer attempts than the next on the list).

A better breakdown of how "good" a D is vs run or pass is what they do with the opprutunities presented to them - wich puts Denver at average vs run and good vs the pass.

 
I think that both Denver and Pittsburgh will suffer big game letdowns. Both had emotional wins over teams they "weren't suppose to beat." I would not be surprised if the first several series of the game include numerous penalties, a couple turnovers, and sloppy play on both sides. No facts to back this up, just a guess. Whichever team overcomes their early game mistakes will prevail. I'll give the nod to Denver because of the home field advantage and my belief that the Steelers beating the Colts was more of a tremendous feat and accomplishment which might result in a bigger letdown as they try and get up for another tough matchup.

 
Denver's run defense is an average unit, drastically overrated because it faced so few attempts. Denver's pass defense is a dominant unit, drastically UNDERrated because it faced so MANY attempts.
:no: If you honestly believe what you are writing here, I respectfully respond that you either haven't watched DEN play much this year or your understanding of the game isn't as acute as you would lend one to believe that it is.
Again... Denver faces the LEAST rushing attempts in the league by a large margin, and they allow one of the lowest rushing totals. They face the MOST passing attempts by a large margin, and allow one of the best passing totals. Coincidence? Most certainly not.As I said, Denver is in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing ypc against, but in the top 6 in terms of passing ypc against, completion percentage against, QB rating against, and INTs. The other defenses in similar territory, when it comes to passing defense, are: Chicago, Washington, Carolina, etc. I'd say that puts Denver's passing defense in some pretty elite company.

If you like Football Outsiders, they agree with me, ranking Denver 4th against the pass and 17th against the rush on a per-play basis.

Edit: And don't you DARE try dropping that whole "You obviously haven't been watching the games" crap on me. Because that's just what it is. Crap. I watch the games, thank you very much.

I think that both Denver and Pittsburgh will suffer big game letdowns. Both had emotional wins over teams they "weren't suppose to beat." I would not be surprised if the first several series of the game include numerous penalties, a couple turnovers, and sloppy play on both sides. No facts to back this up, just a guess. Whichever team overcomes their early game mistakes will prevail. I'll give the nod to Denver because of the home field advantage and my belief that the Steelers beating the Colts was more of a tremendous feat and accomplishment which might result in a bigger letdown as they try and get up for another tough matchup.
Denver was favored to win against New England, it was only the national media who said they weren't supposed to win.
 
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I'll be honest right up front because I have not watched a lot of Denver this season. However from what I saw against the Patriots last week, the Broncos like to blitz a lot, especially Lynch. Brady was getting pummelled pretty good last week by the Denver blitz. If the Steelers are able to pick up the blitz then I can see Miller having a nice game. If not, Ben could be in for a beating.On the other hand if Denver blitzes a lot they should be ripe for the screen, which the Steelers run pretty well with Parker and Haynes.Should be interesting.

 
I'll be honest right up front because I have not watched a lot of Denver this season. However from what I saw against the Patriots last week, the Broncos like to blitz a lot, especially Lynch.

Brady was getting pummelled pretty good last week by the Denver blitz. If the Steelers are able to pick up the blitz then I can see Miller having a nice game. If not, Ben could be in for a beating.

On the other hand if Denver blitzes a lot they should be ripe for the screen, which the Steelers run pretty well with Parker and Haynes.

Should be interesting.
I wouldn't expect to see much, if any, of last weeks game plan this week. Shanahan isn't known as "The Mastermind" for nothing.
 
Denver's run defense is an average unit, drastically overrated because it faced so few attempts. Denver's pass defense is a dominant unit, drastically UNDERrated because it faced so MANY attempts.
:no: If you honestly believe what you are writing here, I respectfully respond that you either haven't watched DEN play much this year or your understanding of the game isn't as acute as you would lend one to believe that it is.
Again... Denver faces the LEAST rushing attempts in the league by a large margin, and they allow one of the lowest rushing totals. They face the MOST passing attempts by a large margin, and allow one of the best passing totals. Coincidence? Most certainly not.As I said, Denver is in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing ypc against, but in the top 6 in terms of passing ypc against, completion percentage against, QB rating against, and INTs. The other defenses in similar territory, when it comes to passing defense, are: Chicago, Washington, Carolina, etc. I'd say that puts Denver's passing defense in some pretty elite company.

If you like Football Outsiders, they agree with me, ranking Denver 4th against the pass and 17th against the rush on a per-play basis.

Edit: And don't you DARE try dropping that whole "You obviously haven't been watching the games" crap on me. Because that's just what it is. Crap. I watch the games, thank you very much.
Oooooooh Football Outsiders, the be-all-to-end-all in football. "Don't you dare drop that crap".Here are the facts, my friend.

First of all, your initial position presupposes that most if not all of the HCs, OCs, & teams that DEN faced this year are stupid, in fact that they are much, much less knowledgeable about football than you.

If DEN were average against the run & great against the pass, other teams would scheme to run the ball down DEN's throat all game. HCs keep their jobs by determining where other team's strengths and weaknesses are and they scheme to exploit the weaknesses. To say DEN is much worse at playing the run than the pass and then to immediately afterward say that other teams run at DEN less than anyone else is completely and irrevocably contradictory. Unless, of course, we assume that you & the Football Outsiders know much more about football than NFL coaching staffs & players.

Are you seriously making this claim?

Now that we have examined the common sense side of the issue, let's look at the numbers side of the issue. In the first half of games, DEN has scored 224 points while surrendering 105 points. That means that DEN went into halftime up by more than a TD against their opponents. If the first half of games, all RBs for opposing teams rushed 164 times for 603 yds and 5 TDs against DEN. In the second half of games, all RBs rushed 146 times for 602 yds and 4 TDs against DEN.

That's a 3.68 ypc by RBs in the first half, while the RB ypc jumped to 4.12 ypc in the 2nd half. Despite running the ball better in the second half, opposing teams ran their RBs 11% less in the second half against DEN than they did in the first half. For RBs in the NFL with 100+ carries for the season, 3.68 ypc equates to the 35th best RB average per carry, while the 4.12 ypc equates to the average yards per carry of the 20th best RB. I think we can safely say that if teams are running their RBs with an average equal to the #35 RB in the NFL (with 100+ carries, of course) in the first half that the DEN run D is doing a pretty good job against the run. Would you agree?

How do we explain these facts? Why would teams run less, but be more successful in the second half? Well, it was because they were behind in the second half of games and had to throw a lot more to play catch up. In almost half the games this year, DEN was up at halftime by 13 points or more. So, teams come out throwing more, DEN changes its D schemes to adjust to the additional throwing, playing nickel, big nickel, and dime packages, and while RBs get less carries because of the additional throwing, they gain significantly more yards because DEN is playing pass stop rather than run stop. That also explains why there were so many pass attempts against DEN. It also figures that opposing coaches went away from the run because they weren't very successful at it in the first half.

Consequently, that also explains the lesser ypa numbers, as with more DBs on the field a greater amount of the time, there is less opportunity to throw deeper downfield, and the holes in the pass D would be underneath, where the missing LB in the special packages would be. The short stuff would be much easier to get in the passing game than the longer passes with extra DBs roaming the field. It is also harder to throw completions against the pass packages. Of course the ypa numbers are good, it only follows the rest of the argument.

Here's another argument for DEN's run D. If other teams were playing against an average run D, and they saw how quickly DEN got out in the first half, it would make sense to run the ball more against DEN to try to slow the game down & keep the DEN offense off the field. You wouldn't see very few running attempts against DEN, you'd see a lot more. Teams wouldn't want to get into a track meet in the first half because they could see, just like anyone who looks at stats and watches the games, that DEN starts so well. Of course, that again predisposes that NFL coaches & players aren't stupid, which you apparently think that they are.

So I leave it you, my friend. The facts are on the board, and the football theory is on the board. Why don't you tell me exactly where I am wrong here, and why NFL teams know so much less about football than you.

 
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SSoG and Ponyboy - interesting discussion. If I understand correctly, SSOG and I have drawn the conclusion that the difference is due to opposing teams play selection - heavily weighted pass vs run, which is a result of game score. Pony Poy is making the claim that this heavily weighted pass vs run differential is due to oppositions inability to run in the first place, forcing them to pass - am I getting that right? Pony boy - your numbers doen't add up. Denver on the season had 344 rushes against, for 1363 yards. your numbers are short 34 carries for 158 yards - are you excluding the Chiefs game? I just want us all to be accurate.Here's an article from todays Denver Post which I think is relevant. I believe this supports Pony boy's assertations

Stopping run way to play Broncos' game plan: Make them pass By Bill Williamson Denver Post Staff WriterDenverPost.com On the third Monday of January, safety John Lynch harkened back to the Broncos' first training camp team meeting nearly six months ago. Hundreds of meetings and practice days later, Lynch still remembers the simple words of coach Mike Shanahan in a message to the defense: Forget about the yardage. Yards don't beat teams. Points do. Keep the team out of the end zone and force turnovers. Forget the yards? "I'm not used to giving up all those yards," Lynch said. "But we are a better defense now." Shanahan's message was clear: Stop the run, make opponents pass. That will be the plan Sunday against second-year quarterback Ben Roethlisberger when Denver plays the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC championship game at Invesco Field at Mile High. The Steelers are a run-first operation. Thus, if the Broncos - who finished the regular season ranked No. 2 in the NFL in run defense - can stop running backs Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis, Roethlisberger will be forced to pass. This season, the Broncos have been less impressive statistically than in the recent past. Denver finished 15th in the NFL in overall defense and 29th against the pass. Including the playoff game against New England, Denver opponents have attempted 649 passes and gained 3,984 net yards passing. The Denver defense was ranked No. 4 in the NFL in 2004. It gave up only 2,947 net yards passing last season. But the defense fizzled in the wild-card round of the playoffs. But in the all-important category of points allowed, Denver's opponents have scored only 50 in the past five games combined. During that stretch, teams have tried to beat Denver with the pass. "We want you to throw at us," rookie cornerback Darrent Williams said. "That's what we hope Roethlisberger does. We respect him, but we always want the quarterback to throw at us. We want you to be one- dimensional and pass it. Sooner or later, you are going to make a mistake against us. We may give up a play here or there, but we're also going to make the big play." That was the case against New England in Denver's 27-13 victory Saturday night. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady threw for 341 yards, 204 of those yards coming on five plays. But the bottom line for Denver was that Brady threw two interceptions and that New England scored only 13 points. The biggest play of the game was a 100-yard interception return to the 1-yard line by Denver cornerback Champ Bailey. New England was poised to take the lead, but Bailey's interception return helped Denver go up 17-6 late in the third quarter. "That's why we want people to throw on us," Denver defensive tackle Gerard Warren said. "We will force the big play. First, you stop that run, and then they have to throw. It turns into a fight with a one- handed boxer. I like our chances in that one." The Steelers ran the ball 549 times during the regular season and passed it 379 times. If the Broncos contain Parker and Bettis early, then Roethlis- berger may be forced out of his comfort zone. It worked against Brady. It worked against a passing-oriented offense in Oakland with star receivers Jerry Porter and Randy Moss. The Broncos are confident it will work against a run-first offense if given the opportunity. "Everybody does something great," Denver safety Nick Ferguson said. "We know what Pittsburgh does, and we have to go stop it. We have to do what we've done all season, and that's force them into what we want them to do." And it all goes back to the very first team meeting. "Let them pass," Lynch said. "But the bottom line is not allowing them to score, and that's where we've excelled."
 
Pony boy - your numbers doen't add up.  Denver on the season had 344 rushes against, for 1363 yards.  your numbers are short 34 carries for 158 yards - are you excluding the Chiefs game?  I just want us all to be accurate.
I used RB numbers for all RBs that carried against DEN - which I clearly identified, and then made comparisons to RBs. That discards numbers like Chambers' reverse in the MIA game, Bledsoe's TD run, etc.
 
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Pony boy - your numbers doen't add up.  Denver on the season had 344 rushes against, for 1363 yards.  your numbers are short 34 carries for 158 yards - are you excluding the Chiefs game?  I just want us all to be accurate.
I used RB numbers for all RBs that carried against DEN - which I clearly identified, and then made comparisons to RBs. That discards numbers like Chambers' reverse in the MIA game, Bledsoe's TD run, etc.
gotcha. Thanks.
 
Denver will win an evenly matched contest because,like New England last week,the Steelers will feel the effect of the thin air late in the game and will become just a bit more tired than Denver,which will lead to mistakes that the Broncos will capitalize on.

 
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On a neutral field with equal rest I think Pit wins easily.
:goodposting: this is an even fair analysis.
:lmao:
ok maybe that part was slanted to the steelers, but the gist of it is right on. If both teams play the way they did this weekend, the steelers win. The analysis lays out the good reasons that either team could win. i dont think the steelers win "easily" on a neutral field with equal rest, but i think they win for sure.
This seems to be the standard line this week. "If Denver plays like they did against the Pats, they'll lose. Well they didn't lose to NE playing like that, did they? Are you seriously suggesting that if the Bronco defense gets a couple of picks, forces and recovers a couple of fumbles and sets the offense up deep in Steeler territory the Steelers will win? :rolleyes:

Denver 27-13

 

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