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Then you agree on the over. I am leaning on the over in this game and the under in the Pitt-Ravens game. That is if they ever post a number. I bet it is 32 or so.
As I said is this a trap game???????????????????
The over could be hit by half time.
Best response to my post. Thanks for the great explanation and thoughts on this game. That is what makes this board so good. Thanks for the help and I just might keep my money in my pocket.
You lost me right there.There are never any easy games to pick unless you're the 07 Patriots.
Yes, they do sometimes. Dallas/GB last week a great example.Vegas does not make lines to get more action on one side.
No...they don't.Yes, they do sometimes. Dallas/GB last week a great example.Vegas does not make lines to get more action on one side.
No...they don't.Yes, they do sometimes. Dallas/GB last week a great example.Vegas does not make lines to get more action on one side.
I'm interested in hearing both sides of this argument.
It's been well covered before by me, MT and a few others. Vegas, when it feels strongly about any game besides the Super Bowl, will try and make some money by setting the line somewhere between what they think will happen and public perception. That way, they can make a lot more money than if they always tried to get 50/50 action.No...they don't.Yes, they do sometimes. Dallas/GB last week a great example.Vegas does not make lines to get more action on one side.
I'm interested in hearing both sides of this argument.
Throw the rivals chatter aside, this is a gimme. You can try to double down on Marshall all day, please remind me who again is covering him? A 5'9" rookie CB Brandon Flowers and who else in the secondary? Page? Pollard? Surtain? I'll take the SD secondary any day that ends with a "y" over KC's and they were helpless against Marshall. Expect more of the same, much more.
All very solid points. However, every time we hear the "This is a lead pipe lock" it never seems to turn out that way.
So if this is one of those games, the smart money is on KC +9? Or at least Vegas feels strongly that KC is the smart play, so they'll leave the line at 9 (rather than bump it up to 10+) in order to encourage a lopsided majority of money on Denver? Am I interpreting this correctly?It's been well covered before by me, MT and a few others. Vegas, when it feels strongly about any game besides the Super Bowl, will try and make some money by setting the line somewhere between what they think will happen and public perception. That way, they can make a lot more money than if they always tried to get 50/50 action.No...they don't.Yes, they do sometimes. Dallas/GB last week a great example.Vegas does not make lines to get more action on one side.
I'm interested in hearing both sides of this argument.
Well, it should make the over seem pretty safe.
Not according to some here.It's a gimme. Why even bother playing the game?
Their rush defense has been middle of the pack - it isn't terrible. It's their pass defense that is absolutely horrendous (and more specifically their pass rush).Case in point, that 'very poor' rush defense stopped 3 straight NO runs from inside the 1 yard line.
Yes, and they also gave up 88 yards and 3 TD's on the ground when NO threw the ball 48 times too.Maybe they aren't the Lions Defense, but they're hardly money vs. the run.
I agree wholeheartedly with this. But it won't be because their run defense sucks. It will be because opposing QBs can sit back in the pocket all day long and pick their secondary appart.
Don't start bringing logic and reason into the argument. You'll get filleted for that round these parts.
In my defense...I never said that. All I said was LJ will get pounded down their throat. Whether they stop it or not, I don't know. But LJ has been known to wear down a defense or two in the past.
That's what I've always thought, too. I wonder if those that disagree would come back in and explain further. I don't see why Vegas would risk losing money by encouraging a lopsided distribution, when they have guaranteed money in their pockets if they get equal money on both sides of the line...
No worries. We do ultimately agree - Denver D = Pathetic.
Personally...I don't think KC has a freaking chance to win this game.
But that's why I don't gamble on football anymore. I can't tell you how many years I've yelled at the TV for unbelievable games that happen.
That's why the lines are always created right on the edge. Some think the line is too much, others too little. Vegas makes it's money on the juice.
If everybody and their mother bets one side, the line moves, in an attempt to get EQUAL amounts of money on both sides.
(sorry...that rant wasn't towards you)
This guy gets it.
I'd love to hear exactly why the above poster thinks Vegas tries to balance money on every game. Rams/Pats SB a few years ago. Aces Gold sportsbook takes an opinion on the Rams and offers Pats +14. Every sharp bettor in the world who likes the Pats bets as much as they can at the book. Rams lose, sportsbook goes down. That's just one example. If you don't think some sportsbooks take "an opinion" on certain games your crazy. Heck, Giants/Pats ML a great example from last year. Everyone who likes the GMen bet the ML. A line that normally should be Pats -600. Sharp bettors line up at the window to bet the crap out of Pats -400 and such. They can't get enough money down. For every 20 GMen bettors there's 1 sharp making big bets. The books never got evened out, not even ONE bit. The result = a record loss for the Vegas sportsbooks of just under 3 million, IIRC.tomarken said:Black Label Society said:No...they don't.Yes, they do sometimes. Dallas/GB last week a great example.Vegas does not make lines to get more action on one side.
I'm interested in hearing both sides of this argument.
I hear ya, but in two games last season, Marshall caught 16 balls for 200 yards..he's more likely to tear up Kc's soft defense than he is to be stifled by it..
You're probably right. But there's no guarantees, and I like KC's chances to cover.I'll guess we'll have to wait till Sunday.
1) Was the Aces Gold +14 line far different from the lines of every other book? If so, it's stupid and a hard lesson learned - one every other sportsbook won't ignore.2) How is it determined what a money line "should" be?I'd love to hear exactly why the above poster thinks Vegas tries to balance money on every game. Rams/Pats SB a few years ago. Aces Gold sportsbook takes an opinion on the Rams and offers Pats +14. Every sharp bettor in the world who likes the Pats bets as much as they can at the book.tomarken said:Black Label Society said:No...they don't.Yes, they do sometimes. Dallas/GB last week a great example.Vegas does not make lines to get more action on one side.
Rams lose, sportsbook goes down.
That's just one example. If you don't think some sportsbooks take "an opinion" on certain games your crazy.
Heck, Giants/Pats ML a great example from last year. Everyone who likes the GMen bet the ML. A line that normally should be Pats -600. Sharp bettors line up at the window to bet the crap out of Pats -400 and such. They can't get enough money down. For every 20 GMen bettors there's 1 sharp making big bets. The books never got evened out, not even ONE bit.
The result = a record loss for the Vegas sportsbooks of just under 3 million, IIRC.
Don't pin it on Champ and Bly...try the D-Line...Not to change the subject, but seriously.
Yes, they do when they have an imbalanced line.
Precisely. There will always be examples of bad business practices by individual firms making poor decisions, but to extrapolate those few examples to an entire industry is ridiculous. If there are 50 sports books and 1 sets an outlier line on their opinion they are setting themselves up to get crushed as sharp betters will take the cheap middle and when the outlier looses they get killed, and when they win the 49 others spread the pain around (and they won't really be in pain since they will be trying to get 50/50 action). So to believe in bookies setting opinions they have to be confident both in their line AND that a large % of other books will follow. Earning 7-10% on their investment each year is worth more than a one time big bonus.To the poster referencing the Pats Giants game- occasionally the books won't be able to balance the tables. Some games involve to many strong factors so that there is not enough range to push the number a little to get a little more action in one direction. NY is one of the biggest gambling markets and the Pats were 18-0, it was just a perfect storm where if they had moved the line to much in the Pats favor they could have faced the rest of the country betting against the G-men.
There's a whole hell of a lot of that up in this thread.
Ten days ago, the Chiefs lost by 15 at home...to the Raiders.
And three days ago the Raiders took a good Buffalo team to within 1 pt. The over reaction to one blowout loss that happens in the first game of the season is often funny, the Raiders have their problems, but are not at all talentless.
