What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

**Denver at Cleveland**(-1.5) O/U 40.5...The Bridgewater-Keenum Bowl TNF-Game Thread (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Update on Thursday Night: Sutton looks like about the only sure thing. OL is banged up at best for Cleveland, hard to set up any long passes, look for dump offs but also a lot of punts, don't see long sustained drives but maybe others can convince me. Denver won't move the ball either but will do just enough perhaps to win this game. Williams was looking like a better play earlier in the week until it comes time to slot him on a TNF game and the thought of looking at a single digit on your scorecard for 3 days starts playing in your head. 

-My idea is we break this down as much as we can and then flip it into the game thread Thursday Night. It gives you an opportunity to get your thoughts out about who you are going to be starting and share why that's going to be your choice this week. The in game comments are always great and many times they can be a 180 from what we thought going in. 

Let's break down Cleveland and look back at this schedule when they went B2B weeks holding Chi and MN to a whopping 13 points. I understand the Bears were going under a metamorphosis on offense and I'm willing to toss it aside and then they did travel well against a pretty explosive Vikings Offense and kept them in check all day. Outside of that NFC North exceptions they have now allowed 138 points over the other 4 including 84 the last 2 weeks, hard to win allowing 42 points a ball game and now enter the Denver Broncos, not exactly an offensive juggernaut and I wonder what we can really expect this week?? 

The Browns were not bad on rush defense to start the season, both the Chargers and Cardinals were able to get over the 100 yd mark on the ground. Denver is going to try and establish the run, Cleveland has had some great weeks on Pass Defense, culminating with an unbelievable 1 yd performance against the Bears. I don't see Denver coming in and just lighting them up with their passing attack. Jeudy might play might not play don't know why they would push him on a short week. Sutton is coming off terrific B2B performances, that would seem like the big match up in this contest where if he has a good night the Broncos might pull off an upset but he also could rack some garbage time points if Cleveland were to win this big.  That's hard to imagine because they are missing so many of their stars, Chubb n Hunt likely both out, Hunt for the next month, we hear. 

Maybe Williams and Gordon will be grinding out first downs if Cleveland cannot run the ball and become one dimensional and cannot help their defense out much, short week, and maybe they wear down in the 2nd half and that rookie Javonte Williams finally breaks the arm tackle of a couple in the 2nd level and baby t's off to the races. I could say the same for Gordon but many want to see Williams start to distance himself as the potential lead back setting up the 2nd half of the season. 

Vegas is looking at a low scoring affair here, with a team allowing the TOTAL point on their Defense alone. Vegas is forecasting something like 24-17 one way or the other, only a 3 point spread now. Can you see Bridgewater and Baker having an explosive back and forth all night, 31-28? Yeah I'm not really feeling that either. 

Exploit-Sutton and BOTH Denver RBs although its getting old watching them both get about 50 on the ground and try and split hairs. 

For the Browns it's going to be hard to pull the trigger on any one but Peoples Jones, folks are going to be chasing those points, he might have a solid performance but I won't be shocked if he isn't even in the Top 50 this week. Single digits is my Tue Forecast, maybe that will change. 

All you Trekkies and TV addicts Don't mean to diss, don't mean to bring static
All you Klingons in the ####### house Grab your backstreet friend and get loud...


Your turn to grab the Mic 🙂 

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
Von Miller is going to destroy the terrible backup tackles that he is going to face.

-------------------------

Aric DiLalla@AricDiLalla

Von Miller setting high standards this week for himself:

“I will play well in this game. ... I’m going to have a great game. ... I don’t know who the tackle I’m going against is, but I’m going to kill him.”

-----------------------

If he faces Chris Hubbard, he will kill him.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Von Miller is going to destroy the terrible backup tackles that he is going to face.

-------------------------

Aric DiLalla@AricDiLalla

Von Miller setting high standards this week for himself:

“I will play well in this game. ... I’m going to have a great game. ... I don’t know who the tackle I’m going against is, but I’m going to kill him.”

-----------------------

If he faces Chris Hubbard, he will kill him.
Nice find, I'd like to post some stats and then maybe you can expand on them. 

1st 3 games Denver's Defense 314, 189, 162 vs both NY teams and JAX

Last 3 weeks 406, 391, 426 vs BAL, @Pitt, LVR and now they face Baker Mayfield who I am reading has a completely torn labrum on his left arm.

Where do we think this will fall? I'm trying to figure out Cleveland will even function. They say Baker might be practicing and my question is why/how? Case Keenum getting the start? He should e getting the practice reps. Is it true Landry and ODB might be able to play?

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
It’s interesting how we feel worse about our own teams than we do teams that are truly struggling. Read a Broncos blog today that was calling for Drew Lock to be the starter NOW and Denver has no shot whatsoever against the Browns. I was like Bruh you livin’ under a rock? Are you that ignorant about what Stefanski is dealing with rn?

 

Stoneworker

Footballguy
It’s interesting how we feel worse about our own teams than we do teams that are truly struggling. Read a Broncos blog today that was calling for Drew Lock to be the starter NOW and Denver has no shot whatsoever against the Browns. I was like Bruh you livin’ under a rock? Are you that ignorant about what Stefanski is dealing with rn?
It's not the prevailing opinion in Denver that Lock should be the starter vs. the Browns. Although Teddy is definitely on the hot seat.

And I would question the assumption the Broncos are not "truly struggling" after losing three games in a row.

If they don't stop the bleeding vs. CLE it's going to be disarray in a hurry.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
It’s interesting how we feel worse about our own teams than we do teams that are truly struggling. Read a Broncos blog today that was calling for Drew Lock to be the starter NOW and Denver has no shot whatsoever against the Browns. I was like Bruh you livin’ under a rock? Are you that ignorant about what Stefanski is dealing with rn?


It's not the prevailing opinion in Denver that Lock should be the starter vs. the Browns. Although Teddy is definitely on the hot seat.

And I would question the assumption the Broncos are not "truly struggling" after losing three games in a row.

If they don't stop the bleeding vs. CLE it's going to be disarray in a hurry.
What we are dealing with here is a Denver team that lost 3 straight after winning 3 in a row, then Cleveland wins 3 in a row after losing to KC week 1 which nobody expected them to win that game. Cleveland then drops the next 2 games and if they don't stop the bleeding quickly their season is going to spiral out of control of them.

2 different .500 teams that right now don't look capable of causing a lot of noise even if they were in the playoffs. 

Streaky teams, something has to give Thursday Night. 

 

Stoneworker

Footballguy
What we are dealing with here is a Denver team that lost 3 straight after winning 3 in a row, then Cleveland wins 3 in a row after losing to KC week 1 which nobody expected them to win that game. Cleveland then drops the next 2 games and if they don't stop the bleeding quickly their season is going to spiral out of control of them.

2 different .500 teams that right now don't look capable of causing a lot of noise even if they were in the playoffs. 

Streaky teams, something has to give Thursday Night. 
Where Denver has shined the last couple weeks even in losing efforts has been in an attacking, two-minute type offense once they've gotten behind. OC Shurmur has taken a ton of heat for not deploying that earlier in the game.

If they go with a more aggressive Off game plan and get in favorable down-and-distance Broncos could score some points. But DEN O-line is struggling big-time so if not in favorable situations they will get eaten alive by Garrett/Clowney.

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
D'Ernest Johnson worth the effort?
Aghh.  He has some talent, he gets his first start but his QB has a gimpy shoulder and the OTs are second/third string.  Add, Browns also lost their FB to IR and we don't know if Landry or Beckham will play.  All-in-all 8 top players on offense are OUT or injured and Chubb could be back by next game.

For one game he has a good shot to score and/or break a long outside run and snag a few screens/check-downs so yeah I convinced myself that he is worth a flyer on a bye week.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Aghh.  He has some talent, he gets his first start but his QB has a gimpy shoulder and the OTs are second/third string.  Add, Browns also lost their FB to IR and we don't know if Landry or Beckham will play.  All-in-all 8 top players on offense are OUT or injured and Chubb could be back by next game.

For one game he has a good shot to score and/or break a long outside run and snag a few screens/check-downs so yeah I convinced myself that he is worth a flyer on a bye week.
I have Zeke on a BYE in multiple leagues so Thank You 

 

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
Nice find, I'd like to post some stats and then maybe you can expand on them. 

1st 3 games Denver's Defense 314, 189, 162 vs both NY teams and JAX

Last 3 weeks 406, 391, 426 vs BAL, @Pitt, LVR and now they face Baker Mayfield who I am reading has a completely torn labrum on his left arm.

Where do we think this will fall? I'm trying to figure out Cleveland will even function. They say Baker might be practicing and my question is why/how? Case Keenum getting the start? He should e getting the practice reps. Is it true Landry and ODB might be able to play?
Denver has Von Miller who can completely take over a game and he will face a scrub OT and will own them, no doubt about it.  Baker will read where he is and roll to the opposite side and/or throw screens at him to try and slow him down.  I have to imagine Stefanski will have to keep a TE in to help block him.  Denver has excellent CBs so it will be difficult to play pitch-and-catch with the short passing game and if you check the stats AFTER Baker tore his shoulder about the only long pass over twenty air yards he has completed was the hail mary to DPJ last week and you can see he was facing a three-man rush that got zero pressure so he was able to roll right and get a five step giddy-up before he tossed it.  He can do that under proper conditions but not under duress so don't expect much out of the deep passing game to keep Denver's safeties from cheating to help out the run game.  Its gonna be ugly on offense for the Browns.

Defensively the last two games have been massive miscommunication in the secondary.  We had not one or two or three but FOUR corners OUT or go down injured during the Charger game.  Herbert isn't THAT GOOD and the Browns defense (when healthy) isn't THAT BAD.  Kyler Murray is THAT GOOD and our safety's are having real issues communicating.  I expect 'some' improvement this week depending on who is available on defense.

The injury list for the Browns reads like the phone book.  We thought the first time it read like this that Stefanski was pulling a Belichick and listing everyone to confuse people but unfortunately that was not the case, these guys are injured.

    Tue Oct 19, 04:28 PM

Cleveland Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. (shoulder), RB Nick Chubb (calf), OT Jack Conklin (knee), A.J. Z. Green (shoulder, groin), C JC Tretter (knee) and OT Jedrick Wills (ankle) did not participate in practice Tuesday, Oct. 19. DE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle, chest, knee), DE Malik Jackson (knee), QB Baker Mayfield (shoulder), TE David Njoku (limited), LB Malcolm Smith (abdomen), and LB Mack Wilson (calf) were limited. DE Myles Garrett (knee, ankle), DE Takkarist McKinley (ankle), DT Malik McDowell (elbow, foot), CB Greg Newsome (calf), CB Denzel Ward (neck) and CB Greedy Williams (knee) practiced in full.

I expect OBJ to play but not sure how long he will last or how effective he'll be.  Not sure Landry is back Thursday Night.

---------------------------------------------

David J. Chao - ProFootballDoc@ProFootballDoc

Doubtful in my mind. Better chance for Week 8 vs @Steelers

Andy Nelson@acnelson93

What chances do you give Jarvis Landry to be activated this week?

10:21 PM · Oct 19, 2021·Twitter Web App

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Denver has Von Miller who can completely take over a game and he will face a scrub OT and will own them, no doubt about it.  Baker will read where he is and roll to the opposite side and/or throw screens at him to try and slow him down.  I have to imagine Stefanski will have to keep a TE in to help block him.  Denver has excellent CBs so it will be difficult to play pitch-and-catch with the short passing game and if you check the stats AFTER Baker tore his shoulder about the only long pass over twenty air yards he has completed was the hail mary to DPJ last week and you can see he was facing a three-man rush that got zero pressure so he was able to roll right and get a five step giddy-up before he tossed it.  He can do that under proper conditions but not under duress so don't expect much out of the deep passing game to keep Denver's safeties from cheating to help out the run game.  Its gonna be ugly on offense for the Browns.

Defensively the last two games have been massive miscommunication in the secondary.  We had not one or two or three but FOUR corners OUT or go down injured during the Charger game.  Herbert isn't THAT GOOD and the Browns defense (when healthy) isn't THAT BAD.  Kyler Murray is THAT GOOD and our safety's are having real issues communicating.  I expect 'some' improvement this week depending on who is available on defense.

The injury list for the Browns reads like the phone book.  We thought the first time it read like this that Stefanski was pulling a Belichick and listing everyone to confuse people but unfortunately that was not the case, these guys are injured.

    Tue Oct 19, 04:28 PM

Cleveland Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr. (shoulder), RB Nick Chubb (calf), OT Jack Conklin (knee), A.J. Z. Green (shoulder, groin), C JC Tretter (knee) and OT Jedrick Wills (ankle) did not participate in practice Tuesday, Oct. 19. DE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle, chest, knee), DE Malik Jackson (knee), QB Baker Mayfield (shoulder), TE David Njoku (limited), LB Malcolm Smith (abdomen), and LB Mack Wilson (calf) were limited. DE Myles Garrett (knee, ankle), DE Takkarist McKinley (ankle), DT Malik McDowell (elbow, foot), CB Greg Newsome (calf), CB Denzel Ward (neck) and CB Greedy Williams (knee) practiced in full.

I expect OBJ to play but not sure how long he will last or how effective he'll be.  Not sure Landry is back Thursday Night.

---------------------------------------------

David J. Chao - ProFootballDoc@ProFootballDoc

Doubtful in my mind. Better chance for Week 8 vs @Steelers

Andy Nelson@acnelson93

What chances do you give Jarvis Landry to be activated this week?

10:21 PM · Oct 19, 2021·Twitter Web App
Excellent and has me convinced so I will post a score 

Denver 24...Cleveland 6 and I can't see how the Browns will be able to move the ball and maybe at some point Case Keenum takes over so I'll redo that as 24-13 Denver wins and grinds the clock in the 2nd half. 

 

DocHolliday

Footballguy
Excellent and has me convinced so I will post a score 

Denver 24...Cleveland 6 and I can't see how the Browns will be able to move the ball and maybe at some point Case Keenum takes over so I'll redo that as 24-13 Denver wins and grinds the clock in the 2nd half. 
24-13 sounds pretty good but I think that both teams will try to rely on the running game all game.   Teddy B is banged up and Cleveland is relying on Keenan and a bunch of second -stringers since they are down a bunch of players on O.   

 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
24-13 sounds pretty good but I think that both teams will try to rely on the running game all game.   Teddy B is banged up and Cleveland is relying on Keenan and a bunch of second -stringers since they are down a bunch of players on O.   
Well, good day for my Javonte shares then if Keenum can't convert 3rd downs.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Javonte Williams tonight? Now we gotta be serious in our projections, anything telling you tonight he manages to clear say 15-18 points and has his biggest total of the season? Or will the Browns rally around Keenum and their Defense steps up extra tonight shutting down the run lanes forcing Denver to beat them thru the air?

What you got?

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Cleveland now at (-2) and the O/U is 41.5, according to CBS Sportsline. That line might move even further if news keeps coming about Bridgewater and Keenum and others.

 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
Javonte Williams tonight? Now we gotta be serious in our projections, anything telling you tonight he manages to clear say 15-18 points and has his biggest total of the season? Or will the Browns rally around Keenum and their Defense steps up extra tonight shutting down the run lanes forcing Denver to beat them thru the air?

What you got?
No one wants to answer you but I have the same issue and question. There's possibility for more attempts in neutral or favorable script- just not sure how profitable it is. Honestly I just want some incentive to watch the game, and start DPJ and Javonte, due to opportunity. Javonte could break a long run or two against this depleted defense, and the Broncos are basically even with Browns on spread (if you factor in home field advantage of 2 to 3 points, if that even exists anymore)

IDK what to do though- I need some untapped ceiling this week as my team is in shambles

 

Insein

Footballguy
I have Broncos kicker so I am predicting a 15-12 game.
I'm afraid if Bridgewater is out. Drew Lock can't move the ball. I hope they announce it early enough because I'm benching Patrick if Lock is in. And I might drop McManus too. 

 

SoBeDad

Footballguy
Insein said:
I'm afraid if Bridgewater is out. Drew Lock can't move the ball. I hope they announce it early enough because I'm benching Patrick if Lock is in. And I might drop McManus too. 
The Cleveland defense shut down the Bears and Vikings but struggled vs the Chiefs, Chargers and  Cardinals. Tyrod move the ball until he got injured. Is the Browns defense elite?

 

Insein

Footballguy
The Cleveland defense shut down the Bears and Vikings but struggled vs the Chiefs, Chargers and  Cardinals. Tyrod move the ball until he got injured. Is the Browns defense elite?
No. Plus they're injured. But Drew Lock is Drew Lock. 

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
The Cleveland defense shut down the Bears and Vikings but struggled vs the Chiefs, Chargers and  Cardinals. Tyrod move the ball until he got injured. Is the Browns defense elite?
Should Drew Lock be in an NFL uniform? Would you want him on the Miami sidelines? Exactly, that's my point, you wouldn't so let's go back to the first question. 

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
TampaMike19 said:
No one wants to answer you but I have the same issue and question. There's possibility for more attempts in neutral or favorable script- just not sure how profitable it is. Honestly I just want some incentive to watch the game, and start DPJ and Javonte, due to opportunity. Javonte could break a long run or two against this depleted defense, and the Broncos are basically even with Browns on spread (if you factor in home field advantage of 2 to 3 points, if that even exists anymore)

IDK what to do though- I need some untapped ceiling this week as my team is in shambles
Browns RushDef 113 and 144 allowed the last 2 weeks, not sure what you can draw from that as they were gashed for 82 points over the same 8 quarters.

 

brewer

Footballguy
Coming off a short week with the list of expected inactives for Cleveland, I don't see a path to them winning this game.   The Broncos D is better than the patchwork Cleveland Offense and the Broncos Offense with or without Teddy is better than the banged up Cleveland D.  It amazes me that Cleveland is still favored in this game.

Which means I'll be completely wrong and Cleveland will roll.

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
I'll start this off by saying I have no idea what's going to happen so you should take this with a grain of salt. I have both Denver and Cleveland DSTs and have been debating all week which to start. Finally pulled the trigger on Denver earlier today. It's entirely a bet on Miller and that banged up Cleveland O-line. Also starting Patrick because of the Toney injury and McManus because I'm in a league where people actually take the K seriously and there's no one else.

 

beer 30

Footballguy
Here is my solution for CLE to combat Von Miller. We still have 3 healthy TE's left on the roster, virtually every other position on offense is filled with a backup. So take the guy we pull off the street and put at LT, overload that side with 2 of the 3 TE's and then put the other one in the backfield as an H-back. You might have a shot at stopping Miller.

If not, this is the prison inmate game, I predict 6-3 Browns.

With Bridgewater's injury and Denver's sieve of an OL, I expect Garrett to set the single season sack record tonight.

 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
Who is worse Lock or Keenum? I don't like the Broncos without Bridgewater. 


 Bridgewater was reported as "fine" a bit ago, and ready to roll.

As far as I'm concerned, this is like stealing money. Denver has most all their defensive players back, and the Browns are a shell of themselves on offense. 3rd string RB?  Check.     Down OBJ?  Check.     Jarvis Landry's first game back returning from IR?  Check.

Backup Cleveland QB?  Check.

It doesn't get much better than this, if you are a sports bettor.  (Can the Browns win?????? Possibly, but W in T F more reason do you need to bet Denver, than the ones outlined above?)

I'm just upset I didn't get a bigger line earlier in the week, but I wasn't paying attention until yesterday.

 TZM

 

Timmay

Footballguy
 Bridgewater was reported as "fine" a bit ago, and ready to roll.

As far as I'm concerned, this is like stealing money. Denver has most all their defensive players back, and the Browns are a shell of themselves on offense. 3rd string RB?  Check.     Down OBJ?  Check.     Jarvis Landry's first game back returning from IR?  Check.

Backup Cleveland QB?  Check.

It doesn't get much better than this, if you are a sports bettor.  (Can the Browns win?????? Possibly, but W in T F more reason do you need to bet Denver, than the ones outlined above?)

I'm just upset I didn't get a bigger line earlier in the week, but I wasn't paying attention until yesterday.

 TZM


I'm with you on Denver, but these types of games that are too good to be true are always dangerous with sports betting. 

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
 Bridgewater was reported as "fine" a bit ago, and ready to roll.

As far as I'm concerned, this is like stealing money. Denver has most all their defensive players back, and the Browns are a shell of themselves on offense. 3rd string RB?  Check.     Down OBJ?  Check.     Jarvis Landry's first game back returning from IR?  Check.

Backup Cleveland QB?  Check.

It doesn't get much better than this, if you are a sports bettor.  (Can the Browns win?????? Possibly, but W in T F more reason do you need to bet Denver, than the ones outlined above?)

I'm just upset I didn't get a bigger line earlier in the week, but I wasn't paying attention until yesterday.

 TZM
I probably need to update the spread Markie, when we launched it on Tuesday it was still rolling at 3-3.5, and that was down from 6 initially. 

 

3 hour lunch

Footballguy
The way Mayfield has been playing, Keenum is probably an upgrade. Not having Hunt hurts more. I understand all the Denver leans but I think it’s a toss up game. Cleveland is a tough place to play. 

 

beer 30

Footballguy
Bridgewater might be listed as fine but multiple reporters who cover DEN said this morning he couldn't put any weight on his left foot after Sunday's game getting off the podium. They both mentioned it unsolicited. He also has a quad issue so all that added up, I think Garrett has a big night tonight. For the Brown's to pull this one out they are going to need the defense to step up play, like pitching a shutout or creating a bunch of turnovers. I think they can.

Landry got activated and Wills (our LT) is set to go (for how long we'll see). I think the Brown's can win this one with a "don't lose the game" attitude on offense. I'm also a homer so #### Denver anyway.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Timmay

Footballguy
Out of both teams, fantasy wise, who do you think has the best overall night tonight? 

I think Keenum will surprise, but overall I think Tim Patrick is in for a big game. 

 

Stoneworker

Footballguy
It doesn't get much better than this, if you are a sports bettor.  (Can the Browns win?????? Possibly, but W in T F more reason do you need to bet Denver, than the ones outlined above?)
Denver has been favored each of the last three games and is 0-3.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
As a Browns fan no idea how this team beats ANY other NFL team tonight.  QB out, both RBs out, both top WRs either out or very limited, OL banged up.

Without luck and/or many pass interference penalties, I dont see how the Browns score.  Defensive TD maybe??

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top