Denver to the Super Bowl ... (1 Viewer)

[Dancing Bear]

So that there is no mis-understanding about how I value Peyton Manning career in the NFL, he is certainly a HofF Quarterback.

However, he has played mediocre at best during his 24 playoff games. Only 1/4 of his appearances are equivalent to his average career effort; 3/4 are significantly BELOW. He is 11-13 overall, 1-2 in the Super Bowl.

That coupled with his SUBPAR performance throughout 2015 ... potential lingering injuries ...

Does Denver have a chance to win the Super Bowl with him behind center?

 

[themeanmachine]

I don't understand the poll question - are you asking for the probability that the Broncos make it to the Super Bowl AND Peyton Manning is the QB in the Super Bowl AND the Broncos win? Or are you asking, assuming the Broncos make the SB and Manning is QB, what is the probability they win?

 

[moleculo]

unless he can make it through a game without getting hit, I don't believe Mannings body will let him play in consecutive weeks. I think he's at a point where he requires more than 7 days rest between games.

with that in mind, regardless of Broncos team success, I don't find it likely that he will be the starting QB in three post-season games.

Under the unlikely assumption that Denver wins two playoff games to advance to the superbowl, I believe that we would see a mix of Osweiler and Manning. Maybe Manning starts the game and Osweiler finishes, maybe it's the reverse. So, i'm not really sure how to score that.

 

[Dancing Bear]

I don't understand the poll question - are you asking for the probability that the Broncos make it to the Super Bowl AND Peyton Manning is the QB in the Super Bowl AND the Broncos win? Or are you asking, assuming the Broncos make the SB and Manning is QB, what is the probability they win?

The poll is simply asking if Peyton Manning is under center as the starting QB for the Denver Broncos, what is the probability that they will win the 3 games between them and holding up the Lombardi Trophy.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The poll options are terrible.

Denver clearly has a non-zero chance of winning the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning under center. Anyone who says it is literally impossible for them to win with Peyton is just being obtuse. A phenomenal defense managed to drag *TRENT DILFER* to the title, so even if you think Manning is terrible, there's still a greater than zero chance that the Broncos defense goes all 2000 Baltimore Ravens on the field.

At the same time, the next-smallest option, (25%), requires us to assume the Broncos have a 63% chance to win all three of their potential playoff games. And that seems high. I'd install them as solid underdogs against any of Carolina, Arizona, or Seattle in the Super Bowl. I'd say they're probably an even bet against New England, thanks to home-field advantage. They should be favored in the divisional round, but certainly not by enough to make their total championship odds 25%.

Football Outsiders has Denver's Super Bowl odds at 12.6%, which seems totally reasonable, (and places them at fourth behind the three NFC teams I mentioned). That's what you'd expect if Denver were a toss-up in every game, (or if, like my hypothetical, you think they're a favorite in the divisional round, a toss-up in the AFCCG, and an underdog in the Super Bowl). Maybe I shade those odds a hair lower down to 10% or a hair higher up to 15%, but then we're just splitting hairs. Either way, the right answer isn't anywhere close to any of the possible choices.

I went with 25%, and I would have done so even if I'd estimated Denver's title chances as low as 2%. The difference between 2% and 25% is a quantity error. One suggests a small chance, while the other suggests a very, very small chance. The difference between 2% and 0%, on the other hand, is a category error. One suggests "possible", while the other suggests "literally impossible". And no matter Peyton's "true" title odds, as I said, anyone who says it's literally impossible is deliberately being obtuse. Or else they have a pitiable understanding of the true breadth and scope of human possibility.

Edit: Vegas has Denver at 6/1 to win the Super Bowl, which is right in line with where Football Outsiders has them.

 

[Alkahsu]

I voted zero but that's regardless of who QB is. Obviously they have a chance but given the options 0 is probably closest.

 

[Jack White]

The Broncos with Peyton will lose to Pittsburgh.

 

[ROCKET]

I think the odds of them winning the SB is zero. I give them a slim shot to get there but no chance against whoever they play out of The NFC. I think their defense is vastly over rated regardless of the stats.

 

[Deamon]

I voted zero but that's regardless of who QB is. Obviously they have a chance but given the options 0 is probably closest.

Same. Was really hoping for a 6% option in there.

 

[Arodin]

I voted zero but that's regardless of who QB is. Obviously they have a chance but given the options 0 is probably closest.

The poll options are terrible.

Denver clearly has a non-zero chance of winning the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning under center. Anyone who says it is literally impossible for them to win with Peyton is just being obtuse. A phenomenal defense managed to drag *TRENT DILFER* to the title, so even if you think Manning is terrible, there's still a greater than zero chance that the Broncos defense goes all 2000 Baltimore Ravens on the field.

At the same time, the next-smallest option, (25%), requires us to assume the Broncos have a 63% chance to win all three of their potential playoff games. And that seems high. I'd install them as solid underdogs against any of Carolina, Arizona, or Seattle in the Super Bowl. I'd say they're probably an even bet against New England, thanks to home-field advantage. They should be favored in the divisional round, but certainly not by enough to make their total championship odds 25%.

Football Outsiders has Denver's Super Bowl odds at 12.6%, which seems totally reasonable, (and places them at fourth behind the three NFC teams I mentioned). That's what you'd expect if Denver were a toss-up in every game, (or if, like my hypothetical, you think they're a favorite in the divisional round, a toss-up in the AFCCG, and an underdog in the Super Bowl). Maybe I shade those odds a hair lower down to 10% or a hair higher up to 15%, but then we're just splitting hairs. Either way, the right answer isn't anywhere close to any of the possible choices.

I went with 25%, and I would have done so even if I'd estimated Denver's title chances as low as 2%. The difference between 2% and 25% is a quantity error. One suggests a small chance, while the other suggests a very, very small chance. The difference between 2% and 0%, on the other hand, is a category error. One suggests "possible", while the other suggests "literally impossible". And no matter Peyton's "true" title odds, as I said, anyone who says it's literally impossible is deliberately being obtuse. Or else they have a pitiable understanding of the true breadth and scope of human possibility.

Edit: Vegas has Denver at 6/1 to win the Super Bowl, which is right in line with where Football Outsiders has them.

You two just neatly summarized my reasons for null voting this poll.Edit to add: a much more interesting poll would be "how do the Broncos Super Bowl prospects change with Peyton rather than Brock under center?"

a) less than 1% either way

b) small increase

c) small decrease

d) substantial increase

e) substantial decrease

 

[FUBAR]

16.18%

 

[bostonfred]

NFL would love for him to go out on top. Broncos will get all the calls.

 

[Adam Harstad]

You two just neatly summarized my reasons for null voting this poll.

Edit to add: a much more interesting poll would be "how do the Broncos Super Bowl prospects change with Peyton rather than Brock under center?"

a) less than 1% either way

b) small increase

c) small decrease

d) substantial increase

e) substantial decrease

I'd vote for a small increase. Brock or Peyton, the hope is largely going to hinge on the performance of the defense and the running game. Winning the Super Bowl is a high-variance outcome, though. I think with Peyton, there's greater potential for a complete and utter implosion... but there's also greater potential for truly sublime performance. Since "complete implosion" doesn't hurt any worse than "mediocre performance", (both result in an early exit in the playoffs), I'd say the uncertainty surrounding Peyton right now is a net positive to Denver's Super Bowl odds.

 

[Arodin]

You two just neatly summarized my reasons for null voting this poll.

Edit to add: a much more interesting poll would be "how do the Broncos Super Bowl prospects change with Peyton rather than Brock under center?"

a) less than 1% either way

b) small increase

c) small decrease

d) substantial increase

e) substantial decrease

I'd vote for a small increase. Brock or Peyton, the hope is largely going to hinge on the performance of the defense and the running game. Winning the Super Bowl is a high-variance outcome, though. I think with Peyton, there's greater potential for a complete and utter implosion... but there's also greater potential for truly sublime performance. Since "complete implosion" doesn't hurt any worse than "mediocre performance", (both result in an early exit in the playoffs), I'd say the uncertainty surrounding Peyton right now is a net positive to Denver's Super Bowl odds.

Seems reasonable.

Essentially, the argument is the same as that given for underdog fantasy owners taking more lineup risks? Since Denver has a very small chance to win the Super Bowl, they increase it more playing the high-upside Peyton over the lower ceiling Osweiler, even if Manning has the lower floor?

In this case I would vote differently, not due to any flaw with the reasoning, but because I don't expect that Manning has any more sublime, high-ceiling games left in him based on what we saw earlier this season. I'd figure the prospect that Brock getting additional experience in practice produces an efficiency increase from greater rhythm with his targets was about as much of a high-upside long shot as Peyton suddenly recovering lost arm strength and reaction speed..

 

[beef]

seattle will eat him up again

 

[Adam Harstad]

You two just neatly summarized my reasons for null voting this poll.

Edit to add: a much more interesting poll would be "how do the Broncos Super Bowl prospects change with Peyton rather than Brock under center?"

a) less than 1% either way

b) small increase

c) small decrease

d) substantial increase

e) substantial decrease

I'd vote for a small increase. Brock or Peyton, the hope is largely going to hinge on the performance of the defense and the running game. Winning the Super Bowl is a high-variance outcome, though. I think with Peyton, there's greater potential for a complete and utter implosion... but there's also greater potential for truly sublime performance. Since "complete implosion" doesn't hurt any worse than "mediocre performance", (both result in an early exit in the playoffs), I'd say the uncertainty surrounding Peyton right now is a net positive to Denver's Super Bowl odds.

Seems reasonable.

Essentially, the argument is the same as that given for underdog fantasy owners taking more lineup risks? Since Denver has a very small chance to win the Super Bowl, they increase it more playing the high-upside Peyton over the lower ceiling Osweiler, even if Manning has the lower floor?

In this case I would vote differently, not due to any flaw with the reasoning, but because I don't expect that Manning has any more sublime, high-ceiling games left in him based on what we saw earlier this season. I'd figure the prospect that Brock getting additional experience in practice produces an efficiency increase from greater rhythm with his targets was about as much of a high-upside long shot as Peyton suddenly recovering lost arm strength and reaction speed..

Brock has no pocket presence, takes a ton of drive-killing sacks, and operates a shorter-passing game than Peyton Manning, (yes, despite their relative arm strength). In the weeks they had Brock under center, Denver led the NFL in 3-and-out drives on offense. The biggest advantage Brock brought to the table over Peyton this year was that he turned the ball over a lot less. (Also, supposedly, that Kubiak's running game worked better with Brock, though it had stalled out in recent weeks and it looked just fine with Peyton back in against San Diego).

In other words, Brock was the lower-risk option. But Peyton is still the higher-reward guy.

 

[Arodin]

In other words, Brock was the lower-risk option. But Peyton is still the higher-reward guy.

Agreed that Brock is the low-risk choice. I'm just not seeing any evidence that Peyton has the high ceiling anymore.

Even in his better games this season he wasn't sharp, and he's thrown even two touchdowns in only a third of his starts.

Is there a reason besides past years' performances to expect that Peyton has any upside at all?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

NFL would love for him to go out on top. Broncos will get all the calls.

They may even let him have his ball boy take some air out of the game balls if he wants.

 

[Insein]

It's happening.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Agreed that Brock is the low-risk choice. I'm just not seeing any evidence that Peyton has the high ceiling anymore.

Even in his better games this season he wasn't sharp, and he's thrown even two touchdowns in only a third of his starts.

Is there a reason besides past years' performances to expect that Peyton has any upside at all?

Denver's offense is substantially more vertical with Manning under center, which is naturally higher-upside.

Manning has three fourth-quarter comebacks so far this season. Led a terrific two-minute drill in the first game against KC. He's shown stretches of his 2014 level of play, though it deteriorated a lot towards the end, (supposedly because of the injuries, which he's supposedly recovered from now). He keyed a great comeback against Indy that fell short at the end when, for one of the few times all season, the defense couldn't get a late stop. And, of course, he *does* have the pre-2015 history, which counts for something.

He still manages a pocket and reads a defense *substantially* better than Osweiler. He's the guy who is more likely to make defenses pay for their mistakes. Again, the Osweiler Broncos lead the league in 3-and-outs. Crucially, the coaching staff clearly believes Manning gives them a better chance to win, since they benched Osweiler for him when Oz wasn't even playing poorly, and they declared Manning the divisional round starter a week in advance.

The only logical way for me to read the sequence of events in San Diego, (where Osweiler got benched despite playing relatively well after a C.J. Anderson fumble), is that the benching wasn't about dissatisfaction with Osweiler at all. It was about Denver falling behind San Diego and doing what it could to win a must-win game. They would have rather given Manning a bit of extra rest, but with a win giving them the #1 seed while a loss dropped them to the #5 seed, they had to do what they had to do to get the win. And they felt that that was playing Peyton Manning.

 

[Dancing Bear]

The poll options are terrible.

Denver clearly has a non-zero chance of winning the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning under center. Anyone who says it is literally impossible for them to win with Peyton is just being obtuse. A phenomenal defense managed to drag *TRENT DILFER* to the title, so even if you think Manning is terrible, there's still a greater than zero chance that the Broncos defense goes all 2000 Baltimore Ravens on the field.

At the same time, the next-smallest option, (25%), requires us to assume the Broncos have a 63% chance to win all three of their potential playoff games. And that seems high. I'd install them as solid underdogs against any of Carolina, Arizona, or Seattle in the Super Bowl. I'd say they're probably an even bet against New England, thanks to home-field advantage. They should be favored in the divisional round, but certainly not by enough to make their total championship odds 25%.

Football Outsiders has Denver's Super Bowl odds at 12.6%, which seems totally reasonable, (and places them at fourth behind the three NFC teams I mentioned). That's what you'd expect if Denver were a toss-up in every game, (or if, like my hypothetical, you think they're a favorite in the divisional round, a toss-up in the AFCCG, and an underdog in the Super Bowl). Maybe I shade those odds a hair lower down to 10% or a hair higher up to 15%, but then we're just splitting hairs. Either way, the right answer isn't anywhere close to any of the possible choices.

I went with 25%, and I would have done so even if I'd estimated Denver's title chances as low as 2%. The difference between 2% and 25% is a quantity error. One suggests a small chance, while the other suggests a very, very small chance. The difference between 2% and 0%, on the other hand, is a category error. One suggests "possible", while the other suggests "literally impossible". And no matter Peyton's "true" title odds, as I said, anyone who says it's literally impossible is deliberately being obtuse. Or else they have a pitiable understanding of the true breadth and scope of human possibility.

Edit: Vegas has Denver at 6/1 to win the Super Bowl, which is right in line with where Football Outsiders has them.

Your discussion is interesting but significantly flawed on nearly every level.

Firstly, you can get a 25% probability to get to the Super Bowl in an infinite number of ways. For instance, 100% in Divisional, 100% in Conference Championship and 25% in the Super Bowl. Or 75% in Divisional, 75% in Conference Championship and 45% in the Super Bowl.

Additionally you don't speak at all about the fact that the Broncos beat Cincinnati and New England while losing to Pittsburgh with Osweiler behind center. They split against Kansas City with Manning; losing in Manning's horrible outing. Houston is the only team in the AFC playoffs who they didn't face. How does Denver stack up at home against these folks?

I think that Denver could beat all 5 AFC teams.

Kansas City - 50% chance [smith, suspect running game, suspect passing game other than Maclin, strong Defense]

Pittsburgh - 66% chance [suspect running game, suspect Defense]

Cincinnati - 75% chance [McCarron, suspect running game, suspect Defense]

New England - 75% chance [suspect running game, no protection for Brady, suspect Defense]

Houston - 75% chance [Hoyer, suspect running game, suspect passing game other than Hopkins, strong Defense]

The Broncos also beat the entire NFC North including the two playoff teams [Minnesota and Green Bay].

I think that Denver could beat all 5 NFC teams.

Seattle - 25%[suspect running game]

Carolina - 40%[suspect running game, suspect receiving corp]

Arizona - 50% [Palmer, suspect Defense without HoneyBear]

Minnesota - 80% [bridgewater, health of Peterson, suspect receiving corp, mediocre Defense]

Green Bay - 80% [suspect protection for Rodgers, suspect receiving corp, mediocre Defense]

Washington - 80% [Cousins, mediocre rushing attack, horrible Defense]

So their best case probability for winning the Super Bowl would be 45%, while their worst case would be 8%.

I think Kubiak is a puppet and Elway told him to make the change in last game and as the starter. That will be the reason they loose eventually. Manning is a DRIP under the pressure.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The poll options are terrible.

Denver clearly has a non-zero chance of winning the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning under center. Anyone who says it is literally impossible for them to win with Peyton is just being obtuse. A phenomenal defense managed to drag *TRENT DILFER* to the title, so even if you think Manning is terrible, there's still a greater than zero chance that the Broncos defense goes all 2000 Baltimore Ravens on the field.

At the same time, the next-smallest option, (25%), requires us to assume the Broncos have a 63% chance to win all three of their potential playoff games. And that seems high. I'd install them as solid underdogs against any of Carolina, Arizona, or Seattle in the Super Bowl. I'd say they're probably an even bet against New England, thanks to home-field advantage. They should be favored in the divisional round, but certainly not by enough to make their total championship odds 25%.

Football Outsiders has Denver's Super Bowl odds at 12.6%, which seems totally reasonable, (and places them at fourth behind the three NFC teams I mentioned). That's what you'd expect if Denver were a toss-up in every game, (or if, like my hypothetical, you think they're a favorite in the divisional round, a toss-up in the AFCCG, and an underdog in the Super Bowl). Maybe I shade those odds a hair lower down to 10% or a hair higher up to 15%, but then we're just splitting hairs. Either way, the right answer isn't anywhere close to any of the possible choices.

I went with 25%, and I would have done so even if I'd estimated Denver's title chances as low as 2%. The difference between 2% and 25% is a quantity error. One suggests a small chance, while the other suggests a very, very small chance. The difference between 2% and 0%, on the other hand, is a category error. One suggests "possible", while the other suggests "literally impossible". And no matter Peyton's "true" title odds, as I said, anyone who says it's literally impossible is deliberately being obtuse. Or else they have a pitiable understanding of the true breadth and scope of human possibility.

Edit: Vegas has Denver at 6/1 to win the Super Bowl, which is right in line with where Football Outsiders has them.

Your discussion is interesting but significantly flawed on nearly every level.

Firstly, you can get a 25% probability to get to the Super Bowl in an infinite number of ways. For instance, 100% in Divisional, 100% in Conference Championship and 25% in the Super Bowl. Or 75% in Divisional, 75% in Conference Championship and 45% in the Super Bowl.

Additionally you don't speak at all about the fact that the Broncos beat Cincinnati and New England while losing to Pittsburgh with Osweiler behind center. They split against Kansas City with Manning; losing in Manning's horrible outing. Houston is the only team in the AFC playoffs who they didn't face. How does Denver stack up at home against these folks?

I think that Denver could beat all 5 AFC teams.

Kansas City - 50% chance [smith, suspect running game, suspect passing game other than Maclin, strong Defense]

Pittsburgh - 66% chance [suspect running game, suspect Defense]

Cincinnati - 75% chance [McCarron, suspect running game, suspect Defense]

New England - 75% chance [suspect running game, no protection for Brady, suspect Defense]

Houston - 75% chance [Hoyer, suspect running game, suspect passing game other than Hopkins, strong Defense]

The Broncos also beat the entire NFC North including the two playoff teams [Minnesota and Green Bay].

I think that Denver could beat all 5 NFC teams.

Seattle - 25%[suspect running game]

Carolina - 40%[suspect running game, suspect receiving corp]

Arizona - 50% [Palmer, suspect Defense without HoneyBear]

Minnesota - 80% [bridgewater, health of Peterson, suspect receiving corp, mediocre Defense]

Green Bay - 80% [suspect protection for Rodgers, suspect receiving corp, mediocre Defense]

Washington - 80% [Cousins, mediocre rushing attack, horrible Defense]

So their best case probability for winning the Super Bowl would be 45%, while their worst case would be 8%.

I'm aware that there are other ways to reach 25% total odds than just a straight 63% chance across the board. That's why I said things like "They should be favored in the divisional round, but certainly not by enough to make their total championship odds 25%." and "if, like my hypothetical, you think they're a favorite in the divisional round, a toss-up in the AFCCG, and an underdog in the Super Bowl".

According to Vegas odds, Arizona and New England are at 9/2 to win it, Carolina is at 5/1, Denver and Seattle are 6/1, Pittsburgh is at 7/1, KC is 24/1, Cincinnati is 25/1, Green Bay and Minnesota are at 35/1, Washington is 38/1, and Houston is 75/1. Translating that into percentages, here are the Vegas-implied chances of winning it all:

18.2% - Arizona

18.2% - New England

16.7% - Carolina

14.3% - Denver

14.3% - Seattle

12.5% - Pittsburgh

4.0% - Kansas City

3.8% - Cincinnati

2.8% - Green Bay

2.8% - Minnesota

2.6% - Washington

1.3% - Houston

(Yes, those odds all sum to 111.5%. That's the house's edge. True implied odds would be slightly lower for each team.)

Football Outsiders puts the SB Championship odds thus:

23.3% - Carolina

15.1% - Seattle

12.7% - Arizona

12.6% - Denver

10.7% - Kansas City

9.6% - New England

5.4% - Pittsburgh

3.4% - Cincinnati

2.6% - Washington

2.2% - Minnesota

1.6% - Houston

0.8% - Green Bay

(These odds sum up to 100%, because Football Outsiders doesn't have a vig.)

It's true that Denver could beat any team in the field. It's also true that Denver could lose to any team in the field. That's why I think the 0% and 100% options are category errors. No team in the NFL ever has a 0% or a 100% chance of winning anything.

I stand by what I said. The poll options are wildly askew. 25% would be far better placed as the highest percentage offered and not the lowest, (ignoring the aforementioned 0% and 100% options).

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Less than 20% of voters right now think there is at least a 50% chance or better they make the SB as a @1 seed with home field throughout...wow!

Count me in the bottom 80%, I think Denver will go home in the opening round. KC or Pitt, either will send them packing.

I can't remember ever having less faith in the 1 and 2 seed in either conference.

 

[devouredbychaos]

Nine, NINE one and dones. Get ready for number 10. Manning isn't the same QB he was even 2 years ago. If the Broncos somehow make it to the Super Bowl it'll be because of their defense, not Manning.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Less than 20% of voters right now think there is at least a 50% chance or better they make the SB as a @1 seed with home field throughout...wow!

Count me in the bottom 80%, I think Denver will go home in the opening round. KC or Pitt, either will send them packing.

I can't remember ever having less faith in the 1 and 2 seed in either conference.

The question is their odds of winning the Super Bowl, not merely making it.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Less than 20% of voters right now think there is at least a 50% chance or better they make the SB as a @1 seed with home field throughout...wow!

Count me in the bottom 80%, I think Denver will go home in the opening round. KC or Pitt, either will send them packing.

I can't remember ever having less faith in the 1 and 2 seed in either conference.

The question is their odds of winning the Super Bowl, not merely making it.

OH...I would vote zero for sure. I had it at 25% but would have gone down 1 from these choices. I would vote exactly at about 5%, there is always a chance but...

 

[moleculo]

figured I'd put this here.

link

BRONCOS CAN WIN AFC WITH PEYTON MANNING BACK AT QB

SAM MONSON

3 DAYS AGO

The Denver Broncos have found themselves in an awkward quarterback situation all season long, but it looks as though they will begin and end the season with Peyton Manning at quarterback, and despite rarely looking capable of hitting his best play, that has proved good enough to give them the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and lock up home-field advantage.

Manning was playing poorly earlier in the season to the point that he only lost the league lead in interceptions this week, despite not playing since Week 10.

Brock Osweiler had shown enough that the Broncos were winning games, and observers were beginning to pose the question of which quarterback was a better option for the team in the postseason. Osweiler may not have the ceiling of Manning, but neither was he making as many catastrophic mistakes as the 2015 version of Manning was.

After an early score against San Diego (arguably the worst team in football with a significantly depleted secondary), Osweiler and the Broncos offense were unable to get much done.

Denver needed to win this game to not only affect seeding in the playoffs, but also lock up the division. A win gave them the No. 1 seed while a loss would drop them to No. 5 and a Wild-Card spot.

Gary Kubiak elected to pull Osweiler and put Manning in the game despite Osweiler (+1.7) actually not playing that poorly. He had two interceptions to his name, but one of them was a pass that hit his receiver in the hands and the other came as he was hit from early pressure in the pocket and floated up to a defender. Overall he had completed 63.6 percent of his passes, and 75 percent of them when kept clean.

Manning entered the game and found himself with work to do. He ended up attempting just eight passes, completing five of them for 69 yards, but Denver also found a running game, and big plays from C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman were instrumental in getting the win.

Encouragingly, Manning’s arm did look more lively than before he was sat down to heal his injuries. He completed a couple of passes outside the right numbers, including throwing from the far hash mark, and the passes didn’t come with his recent trademark arc and loft.

PFF Senior Analyst Rick Drummond, who graded the game, noted a marked difference in how clean, confident and efficient the Denver offense was once Manning came in.

“When the Broncos made the switch back to QB Peyton Manning (+0.3) in the second half of this one, there was a noticeable change in the Denver attack. Gone were the long dropbacks, muddy pockets and slower-developing outside zone runs and in their place were the quick-hit throws and inside zone runs from the shotgun, along with a more urgent — and confident — overall pace. In short, the Broncos looked more like the Broncos again.”

This is a team that has been destined for postseason football all season, and they have had an eye on the long game throughout. They have successfully navigated the regular season with major issues at quarterback, and still emerged with the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. This team is built around their defense, and all they need from Manning is to be a good game-managing quarterback. For most of the season he couldn’t do that, and was making horrendous mistakes. If nothing else against San Diego, he avoided the big mistake, and looked a little more like the game-managing quarterback Denver needs.

If Peyton Manning can be that guy throughout the playoffs, Denver is a real contender, and in better shape than if the team were still starting Osweiler.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Your discussion is interesting but significantly flawed on nearly every level.

Firstly, you can get a 25% probability to get to the Super Bowl in an infinite number of ways. For instance, 100% in Divisional, 100% in Conference Championship and 25% in the Super Bowl. Or 75% in Divisional, 75% in Conference Championship and 45% in the Super Bowl.

Additionally you don't speak at all about the fact that the Broncos beat Cincinnati and New England while losing to Pittsburgh with Osweiler behind center. They split against Kansas City with Manning; losing in Manning's horrible outing. Houston is the only team in the AFC playoffs who they didn't face. How does Denver stack up at home against these folks?

I think that Denver could beat all 5 AFC teams.

Kansas City - 50% chance [smith, suspect running game, suspect passing game other than Maclin, strong Defense]

Pittsburgh - 66% chance [suspect running game, suspect Defense]

Cincinnati - 75% chance [McCarron, suspect running game, suspect Defense]

New England - 75% chance [suspect running game, no protection for Brady, suspect Defense]

Houston - 75% chance [Hoyer, suspect running game, suspect passing game other than Hopkins, strong Defense]

I'd just like to point out the irony inherent in the bolded sentences.

If you want something that's "significantly flawed on nearly every level", how about an assertion that Denver has a 75% chance of beating either Cincy or New England? But ... on the off chance you're serious, please PM me right away. I know the AFC title game with these potential pairings is still 2+ weeks away, but since you're planning to lay me 3:1, I'll need the extra time to arrange a loan from my 401(k).

 

[Stealthycat]

DEN is a great team.

With Brock I'd put them at 50% winning because i'm telling you right now, Peyton's noodle arm is going to throw 3-4 INT's in one of the playoff games and DEN will be out

bank on it

 

[Run It Up]

Wait what? How do Cincy or NE have suspect defenses?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Wait what? How do Cincy or NE have suspect defenses?

We suspect they are pretty good.

 

[Tanner9919]

it's not the QB that will win for Denver,it's their running game. CJ Anderson is on fire.

Denver v. Seattle SB 50

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Wait what? How do Cincy or NE have suspect defenses?

The same way SEA has a suspect running game or that Palmer is a detriment for Arizona?

 

[The Jacket]

Kansas City - 50% chance [smith, suspect running game, suspect passing game other than Maclin, strong Defense]

Not to nitpick too much but suspect running game?

Despite losing an elite back to injury, Ware and West combined for 232 carries, 1037 yards (4.4+ per carry) and 10 TDs ... in basically 10 games as split starters. Oh ... AND their QB was 3rd among all QBs with another 500 yards. What is suspect about their running game? If anything, it's a strength that will win them playoff games along with good defense.

 

[Casting Couch]

Peyton Manning is a loser come playoff time. His record is below .500, and now that his skills have eroded, I fully expect an early exit for the Broncos.