Denver vs. New England *class* (1 Viewer)

[thesurfshop19]

It seems like between Broncos fans and Patriots fans, there's a lot of talking going on right now. After the game, whichever team wins, there's probably going to be a lot of threads bumped and people doing a whole bunch of after-the-fact "see, I was right, you're a tool/homer" nonsense.

So, I'm thinking in here, if you're a Broncos or Patriots fan who actually wants to show some class, chime in here!

Two keys here:

A Patriots fan saying the Patriots will win is not disrespecting the Broncos

A Broncos fan saying the Broncos will win is not disrespecting the Patriots

Since I'm the only one in here right now, I'll go first ....

I think the Patriots and Broncos match up very well against each other -- personnel and coaching-wise, this is a pretty good matchup on the whole, with no glaring mismatches.

Denver has historically given New England problems, but New England has historically never lost a playoff game with Brady. Denver has home field, but New England comes in just as hot and with a lot of confidence.

I think either team could win this one, and it should be a great one. Unfortunately, I think the Patriots will pull this one out, but I obviously hope I'm wrong as a Denver fan.

 

[P Boy]

I think you've got two very well matched teams, but as I've stated before I think DEN is the better team of the two THIS SEASON, they're playing at home, and they're coming off a bye. That ought to provide a distinct advantage. I also think only a fool would disregard NE's recent playoff history and that they have gotten healthier & stronger towards the end of the season.I have no problem with debate about who will win, or for Pats' fans to think that their team is better & has some kind of edge. It's the "DEN has no chance" crowd that rankles me. NE, to the contrary of some very peculiar opinions at this board & elsewhere, does not have some kind of inalienable & divine claim on the Lombardi trophy every year.

 

[thesurfshop19]

It's the "DEN has no chance" crowd that rankles me.

Same here. I think there are a few "crazies" out there doing that, but I doubt it's a substantial part of the Patriot fanbase. I was hoping we could find out with this thread!

 

[bostonfred]

For all the talk on both sides, I think what people are really saying is "There's no way my team should be expected to lose here". And that's true. Look at both sides:The Denver rushing offense is excellent. The Pats' run defense was the best in the league in the second half of the season. The Denver passing offense is good, but can be high-risk/high-reward. The New England pass defense is good, but high-risk/high-reward, too. The New England rushing offense is not a strength, but they keep on doing it. The Denver run defense is probably a little better. The New England quarterback is arguably one of the best ever. The Denver pass defense is excellent, but they're not one of the best ever. Both teams have good special teams. Both teams have hall of fame coaches. One team has home field advantage and is undefeated at home, the other is undefeated in the playoffs. Denver was good all year, but has struggled in the playoffs in the past. New England has been good for years, but struggled earlier in the season. Denver has always played great in Mile High. New England has always played great in the cold. So we get a night game in January at Mile High. These teams are very evenly matched in a lot of ways. This should be a great game. It's fun to debate who should do better and why, if you don't get caught up in the barrage of "Pats win by 14" or "Denver should be favored by at least 7" posts.

 

[Kit Fisto]

Surf, good post.While I respect the Broncos (a very, very talented team), I have confidence in my boys.I agree, this is going to be a chess match for the ages. What I feel tips the scales in our favor is the experience and grace under presssure Brady and Co. exhibit. Regular-season statistics aside, these teams match up pretty well. I feel the game will turn on a mistake or two, so hopefully it's not us. This is a big game for both teams, but I think the guy who feels the most pressure is Plummer.I can lose with class as easily as I win. I wish you and all Broncos fans that can view this game objectively the best of luck.

 

[bostonfred]

I think you've got two very well matched teams, but as I've stated before I think DEN is the better team of the two THIS SEASON, they're playing at home, and they're coming off a bye. That ought to provide a distinct advantage. I also think only a fool would disregard NE's recent playoff history and that they have gotten healthier & stronger towards the end of the season.

I have no problem with debate about who will win, or for Pats' fans to think that their team is better & has some kind of edge. It's the "DEN has no chance" crowd that rankles me. NE, to the contrary of some very peculiar opinions at this board & elsewhere, does not have some kind of inalienable & divine claim on the Lombardi trophy every year.

Well, Pony, the thing that rankles me about your posts is that you've never been bashful for calling out the New England fanbase, yet here you are being a "whiny tool" about the "disrespect" people are giving your Denver team.

 

[P Boy]

It's the "DEN has no chance" crowd that rankles me.

Same here. I think there are a few "crazies" out there doing that, but I doubt it's a substantial part of the Patriot fanbase. I was hoping we could find out with this thread!

Hell, we're even hearing it here on local radio in DEN. Because Brady has won 10 playoff games without a loss, for some reason people extrapolate that to an automatic W in his 11th, 12th, & 13th games this year. For some reason, some people refuse to recognize that Saturday's game might be the last game he plays this season.All streaks in sports end. Always. DEN is a team that is pretty well equipped to end NE's streak in the playoffs, and they have a solid recent history against NE (unlike their recent playoff history with IND).

 

[P Boy]

Well, Pony, the thing that rankles me about your posts is that you've never been bashful for calling out the New England fanbase, yet here you are being a "whiny tool" about the "disrespect" people are giving your Denver team.

If you'll review some of my posts in the past few years, you'd realize that I might be one of the harshest critics of DEN here.I hated their draft & FA moves in the offseason before this year, though I've been predominantly proven wrong about them (still laughing about drafting Clarett, though). Shanahan & the players proved a lot of my early criticsim to be wrong. I'll admit that.

 

[shredhead]

Dallas won 2 out of 3 superbowls in the 90's. Somebody beat them the next year. Pittsburgh won 4 out of 6 superbowls in the 70's. Somebody beat them the following year. San Francisco was a dynasy with Montana and Young. Somebody beat them the following year. The New England Patriots are the current dynasty team right now. Somebody is going to beat them eventually to end that dynasty. I personally hope that somebody is the Denver Broncos. However I am smart enough to realise that it may not happen that way. They might 3 peat this year. They are a good enough team to do it. But they are not there yet. Thats why they play the games. Somebody has to end the Patriot dynasty, it might as well be the Broncos. I hope for a great entertaining game because I will be there at the stadium watching.

 

[DenverBuc]

It seems like between Broncos fans and Patriots fans, there's a lot of talking going on right now. After the game, whichever team wins, there's probably going to be a lot of threads bumped and people doing a whole bunch of after-the-fact "see, I was right, you're a tool/homer" nonsense.

So, I'm thinking in here, if you're a Broncos or Patriots fan who actually wants to show some class, chime in here!

Two keys here:

A Patriots fan saying the Patriots will win is not disrespecting the Broncos

A Broncos fan saying the Broncos will win is not disrespecting the Patriots

Since I'm the only one in here right now, I'll go first ....

I think the Patriots and Broncos match up very well against each other -- personnel and coaching-wise, this is a pretty good matchup on the whole, with no glaring mismatches.

Denver has historically given New England problems, but New England has historically never lost a playoff game with Brady. Denver has home field, but New England comes in just as hot and with a lot of confidence.

I think either team could win this one, and it should be a great one. Unfortunately, I think the Patriots will pull this one out, but I obviously hope I'm wrong as a Denver fan.

All I know is that I am going to be there and could not have asked for a more exciting matchup for my first ever NFL Playoff game.I've been a season ticket holder in Denver for the last three years and haven't had a chance to go to a playoff game yet because the Broncos keep having to play away. I think the stadium is going to be crazy loud and Denver will definitely have a 12th man advantage.

I think it will be a great game and Denver eventually pulls it out because of a better running game and an inspired defense combining to give Denver a large time of possession edge.

Go Broncos! (Especially now that my beloved Bucs are done for the year!)

 

[Ghost Rider]

It is no secret that I am a Broncos fan. It is also no secret that I think they will win this weekend. I expect it to be a battle, though. Even though I think New England isn't nearly as good as they have been in past years and think they looked good against a lot of less-than-stellar teams over the past two months, they are still a scary team because of their reputation. However, this Broncos team is coming off a bye, has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and matches up very well against the Patriots.

To me, the keys to the game are:

Broncos pass rush - the Broncos do not sack the QB a lot, but they always get a lot of pressure and hit the QB a lot and they have got to do that to Brady. They can stand back there and let him find open receivers all night. I suspect New England will throw the ball a lot, so a good pass rush is vital to the Broncos defensive success.

Patriots run defense vs. Broncos running game - let's face it, no one has stopped the Broncos running game all year, so as long as they keep running it well, they stand a good chance of winning. Short yardage is the key, I think. I expect the Broncos to be in a lot of 3rd and shorts and they must convert, especially in the red zone. Touchdowns will be needed to beat NE, not FG's.

Jake Plummer's play - While I do not think it is as simple as some do when they say, "Brady is better than Plummer, so the Pats will win," I do think Plummer has to play well. Most of the time this year, he has been put in the position of not really having to win the game, rather to make plays when they are there and not lose the game. He needs to do that Saturday and play within the system. If he turns the ball over more than once, the Broncos are in trouble.

Good thread, too, btw.

 

[Serenity Now]

It's the "DEN has no chance" crowd that rankles me.

Same here. I think there are a few "crazies" out there doing that, but I doubt it's a substantial part of the Patriot fanbase. I was hoping we could find out with this thread!

I don't think the people starting the "DEN has no chance" threads were Pats fans. I think they were fishermen out for a day's catch.I've said all season that I thought it would be pretty sweet if the Colts killed themselves to assure they get home field, etc., only to be knocked out by the Broncos this year. I've always thought that Denver was the team with a shot to knock them out. I'd root for it.

 

[jgb95]

I'm a PATS fan and I have all the faith in the world that our team can win this game. But on the other hand being in DEN and seeing how well Plummer has run this offense this year DEN could very well win this game at Investco Field. Plummer has played within Shanny's system very well this year. This is what the Bronco's are all about, run the ball right, run the ball left, run the ball up the gut and don't let the QB turn the ball over. Sounds simple but for some teams the run game isn't as stout. Here are my keys to the game for both teamsEN: Get 4-5 yards on first downDon't get into 3 and longsRun to set up the Play Action Cover Kevin Faulk!!!This is pretty much par for the course but when the PATS are healthy they are known to be able to make teams have to try something else to win, something that's not their strength. In the first game our DL and LB and DB's were unable to stop anything DEN did offensively.NE:Get the Running game going early (just show that you won't give up on the running game)Spread the Bronco's out (4-5 wide) early and oftenUse a short passing game as your running gameOn D be where your supposed to be don't bite to hard on the Play Action (but in turn usually helps the run game - CATCH 22 here)Our D must be smart when the Bronco's are using Play Action and not allow Plummer to have 5-7 seconds in the flat on a Play Action Pass paly. We need to get the Bronco's to have to use their 4th and 5th DB's when we use our spread offense. I hope to see them use Ben Watson and Kevin Faulk as WR's in this game.I'm still thinking but this is where I'd start.I hope it's a great game and may the BEST team win. If I think of anything else I'll throw it in.

 

[Courtjester]

Great thread Surf!!I have purposefully stopped myself from responding in some of the other threads because I know I would not have my account in the morning.I think this is going to be a great game and I am trying not to let my Denver Homerism cloud my opinion.I think if you objectively sit down and do a checklist who is stronger in this category or this category, then I think NE has more checks in their column (but it is not by much).The weather is going to be beautiful (probably mid 40's) with no snow, so that is not an issue.But I really believe the deciding factor is the home field advantage. I think this is what puts Denver over the top in this game and is basically the answer to the NE mystique in the playoffs.I am just hoping for a good game that is decided by the teams on the field and not some missed call by a ref or a freak injury to Brady or Jake.Good luck to the NE fans.

 

[P Boy]

Wow. Has this gotten to be a much better thread than all the other NE/DEN nonsense.Nice work, surf.

 

[thesurfshop19]

Wow. Has this gotten to be a much better thread than all the other NE/DEN nonsense.

Nice work, surf.

Thanks!I figure Denver and New England both have passionate fanbases, so I'm glad this has become a more level-headed discussion!

 

[thejag]

As a Pats fan, I would have rather seen my boys in Indy this weekend. The Bronco's were probably the best team in the AFC toward the end of the season. While the Pats haven't really been fazed by playing on the road in the playoffs during this run (granted, Pittsburgh isn't Denver, but still a tough venue), Invesco at Mile High (I think?) can really rattle teams, especially the sheer amount of support (read: noise) the fans make. As for the game itself, I do think the Pats will win for one reason: come game time in the playoffs, Belichick and his staff have shown an ability to take away the 1 key aspect of the opponent's game, whether offensively or defensively. I realize that like the market, past performance is no indication of future results, but I like the past performance. The keys the Pats must focus on, as I see itefensively: Obviously, stop the run. At the same time, mix up coverages early and often to try and get into Jake's head.Offensively: Mix it up, and mix it up good. Run out of the spread formation. Throw out of a 2 TE alignment. Keep the D guessing so when Brady does go back to pass the pressure is alleviated as much as possible. While the sack numbers aren't there, the Denver D has put a lot of pressure on QBs this season. If the O-line plays like it did in the first half vs. Jax, this could be a long, long night.Great thread. Yahoos from both sides should read this.

 

[jgb95]

2005 Schedule

Date Opponent Time/Result

Sep 11 @Miami Lost 10-34 (Got handled by a good Run D)

Sep 18 San Diego Won 20-17 (Division game imagined a split)

Sep 26 Kansas City Won 30-10 (Ditto)

Oct 2 @Jacksonville Won 20-7 (Good D but not unbeatable)

Oct 9 Washington Won 21-19 (Same as above)

Oct 16 New England Won 28-20 (Played a great game versus a beat up D)

Oct 23 @N.Y. Giants Lost 23-24 (This game should have been a W in my eyes no excuse here)

Oct 30 Philadelphia Won 49-21 (Philly's D was a no show here)

Nov 13 @Oakland Won 31-17 (Oaktown was a joke in 2005)

Nov 20 N.Y. Jets Won 27-0 (Everyone beat the JETS)

Nov 24 @Dallas Won 24-21 (Good game here by DEN)

Dec 4 @Kansas City Lost 27-31 (See above - Split)

Dec 11 Baltimore Won 12-10 (Tuff battle here)

Dec 17 @Buffalo Won 28-17 (How did you let BUF score 17???)

Dec 24 Oakland Won 22-3 (Only team they should have swept in 2005)

Dec 31 @San Diego Won 23-7 (Doesn't count in my eyes)

The only games that stand out as Quality Wins are DAL and PHI. This wasn't the hardest schedule. I'm not implying the NE schedule was harder just that DEN hasn't been thru the ringer with a tuff one in 2005 (they were 3-1 vs playoff teams).

I beleive the numbers on schedule was

DEN .500

NE .508

My other thought is the Belichick usually has very good luck vs a team he has faced during the season and even better when the first game was a loss. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Ghost Rider]

The only games that stand out as Quality Wins are DAL and PHI. This wasn't the hardest schedule. I'm not implying the NE schedule was harder just that DEN hasn't been thru the ringer with a tuff one in 2005 (they were 3-1 vs playoff teams).

Denver was 7-3 against above .500 teams. Their wins against fringe playoff teams like Dallas, San Diego and Kansas City arguably prevented them from making the playoffs. There is no denying the tough schedule the Broncos had this season. And to say they only had 2 quality wins is laughable.

 

[Lord of the Rings]

I agree that these two teams are equally matched.This leads me to one conclusion. Whoever wins the turnover battle will probably win this thing. Anybody quick with stats? What's the difference in turnover ratio between the Broncos and Patriots.If my memory serves me correctly, it seems like Denver has struggled taking care of the ball in recent playoff history, whereas the Patriots have fared pretty well in that department.If the Broncos put the ball on the ground, or Plummer makes a mistake early on, and the Pats capitalize then it could be a long day for the Broncos.Same thing with the Patriots, if they turn the ball over and Denver gets ahead, then the Bronco Rushing Machine could keep Brady and company off the field long enough to pull out a victory.This thing could come down to turnovers.I know, I know... "Thank you, Captian Obvious"

 

[P Boy]

I agree that these two teams are equally matched.This leads me to one conclusion. Whoever wins the turnover battle will probably win this thing. Anybody quick with stats? What's the difference in turnover ratio between the Broncos and Patriots.

DEN was #2 in the NFL in TO margin. NE was #22.

 

[thesurfshop19]

I agree that these two teams are equally matched.

This leads me to one conclusion. Whoever wins the turnover battle will probably win this thing.

Anybody quick with stats? What's the difference in turnover ratio between the Broncos and Patriots.

If my memory serves me correctly, it seems like Denver has struggled taking care of the ball in recent playoff history, whereas the Patriots have fared pretty well in that department.

If the Broncos put the ball on the ground, or Plummer makes a mistake early on, and the Pats capitalize then it could be a long day for the Broncos.

Same thing with the Patriots, if they turn the ball over and Denver gets ahead, then the Bronco Rushing Machine could keep Brady and company off the field long enough to pull out a victory.

This thing could come down to turnovers.

I know, I know... "Thank you, Captian Obvious"

Interestingly enough, the Broncos actually had a good turnover ratio this season - #2 in the league! That's the reason, in many Denver fans' eyes, that they're 13-3 this year and not 10-6 with another 50-point loss to Indy.That said ... Cincinnati had the #1 turnover ratio in the league but lost the battle to Pittsburgh (although there's no denying that the Palmer injury was killer there). So I'm not going to sit here and say that the Broncos *will* get more turnovers than the Patriots. IIRC, there were no turnovers in the regular season game between the two teams.

 

[jgb95]

Ghost Rider I didn't put the Division games into that equation for the reason that they are in the division and any division win is hard for the fact that they play each other twice every year. I didn't want to get into the whole fact that NE was 5-1 in their division, becuase of who's in their division even thought we did lose to MIA I think BB told Cassell to throw that 2 point converstion wide on purpose LOL! We also almost beat them with our back-ups.These are two equally matched teams and I'm just trying to show why they are evenly matched. The Pats schedule was a lot tougher the first half of the season and that was the time they were the most beat up.Nothing was meant by that and as I said just my 2 cents.

 

[moleculo]

One play that NE runs well and Denver has gotten killed on this year is quick passes to WR's - WR screens, if you will. All of the Bronco DBs except for (Champ) give way too much cushion at the line of schrimmage. All this season, the Broncos have routinely given up 5-7 yards per play on quick WR outs. Once the DB's start playing closer to the line, they run a higher risk of getting burnt.I believe the Denver LB's can run with NE's TE's. remember, they face Gonzo and Gates 2x each year - speedy TE's are no suprise to this bunch. If NE is to succeed offensively, I expect it to be via quick outs to the WR's, dump offs to the RB's, etc.When Denver has the ball, NE's LBs and DE's must be disciplined. Denver got ALOT of those rushing yards over the past 10 years because DE's and LB's overpursue, opening up cutback lanes. This is the key to Denver's offense - you MUST stay at home on the edges. This explains the struggles vs 3-4 - more speedy LB's playing a couple of yards back are more likely to not overpursue, and have the speed to recover if they do. I also think that Belichick knows this, and his players know this; this is the part of the game that they will take away from the Broncos. Of course, Shannahan knows that this is what Belichick will do, and will exploit that by running up the middle, play-action up the middle, etc. generally, attacking the center of the field. once the LB's cheat inside, the offense will come. Add to that the decimated NE defensive backfield - expect the Broncos to throw alot early to open up the running game.I see a low scoring game - somewhere in the neighborhood of 17-14. The game will be decided by who can make the better adjustments at halftime, and who avoids stupid penalties - holding, false starts, etc.I am obviously a Denver Homer, but I haven't decided if the boys in predominantly orange will be able to pull this one out. I was really hoping NE would go to Indy and knock off the colts and we wouldn't have to see them until next week.

 

[Workhorse]

Huge Pats fan here really considering putting some dough down on Denver -3.5...

 

[Statorama]

This is the best thread I've seen on this game so far.Random thoughts:- If Denver can run successfully, they'll win.- If Denver gets an early two digit lead, they'll win.- If the game is under 3 points in the fourth quarter, the last team with the ball will win.- The NFL would do cartwheels if the AFC Championship was NE @ Indy.

 

[David Yudkin]

ANARCHY'S KEYS TO THE GAME . . .FOR DENVER ON OFFENSE:1) Hold on to the football. The Pats have made minced meat of opponents in the post-season by letting them beat themselves.2) Keep the Patirots defense on the field. We all know that the Pats have little depth in the secondary and several guys are banged up. We also know that the Broncos are used to the light air. If Denver gets a substantial edge in time of possession, they could wear down the Pats defense even more than they already are and score profusely at the end of the game.3) Mix up the offense more than they have been. If the Pats can key on the run, N.E. stands a much better chance of stuffing it. But Denver needs to be effective on the ground, as I don't think they can win mostly moving the ball through the air.4) Take shots downfield to either get a quick TD or spread out the defense. Even if they don't have a bunch of big plays like earlier in the year, keeping the defense honest may get a few extra yards on the ground on a regular basis.5) Stay out of 3rd and long. This directly ties into #1. While Plummer may have been better the past couple of years, too many 3rd and longs will dramtically increase the likelihood of him throwing some interceptions.FOR DENVER ON DEFENSE:1) Get some sort of penetration on both runs or passes to disrupt the Patriots rhythm. This would then allow for a better chance in #2.2) Don't let the Pats WR to get downfield and leave the middle of the field open for TEs and RBs. I can't begin to tell you the number of times Brady has had enough time to let the WR corps go deep and left the underneath guys open for easy first downs. Ben Watson could kill Denver if they let him take 8 yard pass plays and rumble for 20 yards.3) Be a brick wall in the red zone. If the Broncos can limit the Pats to some field goal attempts instead of TDs, they stand a much better chance.4) Be very afraid of play action. The Pats don't use play action much, but when they do they normally get a huge gain or a TD in the red zone. The Patriots haven't had a ton of success running the ball this year, so if I'm Denver I'd rather give up a 4-yard run than a 40-yard pass.5) Force some turnovers. This one is probably the most important for Denver, but the one I see least likely to happen.FOR NEW ENGLAND ON OFFENSE:1) Use a balanced attack and spread the ball around. All Pro defenders from the Steelers and Eagles last year said that the Pats were nearly impossible to cover, as they had plays that would always have SOMEONE open to pass the ball to--even if it was an obscure plyer that they still had plenty of faith in.2) Be perfectly happy to play a 0-0 game. The Pats all along have generally played to stay in games and let opponents beat themselves and for the most part they have. New England has shown many times this year that they are content to punt the ball rather than force a bad pass. They have also elected to forgo numerous 40+ yard field goals this year in favor of punts or even squib quicks. They have enough faith in the defense now to play a game of field position and will pick their spots rather then get risky. The throttle of the offense will directly be turned up or toned down based on the score and flow of the game.3) Run mostly on passing downs or passing formations. New England has not had much luck running the ball this year, and they are unlikely to do very well against the Broncos in Denver to begin with. If we see them running, it will likely be near the end zone to set up play action to their TEs (or LBs). I would be shocked if the Pats got a 100 rushing yards unless they have someone break a big gainer.4) Take what Denver gives you, which I suspect will be underneath stuff, swing passes, screens, quick outs, and slants. This will neutralize the Denver pass rush and keep the Pats moving the ball. It also will let them get some shots down the field later on in the second half. They have proven over the years that they can still win without running the ball and still run clock in doing it. Mixing in some no huddle would also help, as Denver could be trapped with the wrong package in the game and either give up some cheap yards, some first downs, or waste some time outs.5) Hold on to the ball. If Brady has 3 INT (albeit unlikely) this game is done. N.E. also fumbled several times against the Jaguars but managed to recover and it really didn't hurt them. If Brady is a little off (he was in a couple games this year), he's had passes graze off WR's fingers and became tipped passes that were easy interceptions.5a) Unveil things that they've been saving for a rainy day. The Pats are notorious for expanding the playbook dramatically when the games start to count, giving teams fits with different looks, formations, and lack of predictability. It's a safe bet that Coach B has some some aces up his sleeve that he's yet to play--ie some sort of kick may come out (an Adam V pass, an on-side kick, a fake punt, etc.).FOR NEW ENGLAND ON DEFENSE:1) Play well on special teams. New England has been mediocre on kick coverage this year and also has been terrible in having some good returns of their own brought back for stupid penalties. If this game turns into a field position battle, 20 yards here and there could be a huge difference.2) Control the line of scrimmage. This one is a bit of a "No, duh!" However, if they can shut down the run (mostly), force Plummer into long passing downs, and potentially force him into making poor decisions the seeds of self-destruction could very well be planted. To that end, force Plummer to beat you.3) Avoid the big play. Denver racked up most of their yardage (like 200 yards worth) on three bick plays in the game earlier this year. (I attibute that to all new players being thrown into the lineup at once due to injuries.) I suspect Denver will try to establish the run and take their shots over the top of the defense (at least to start). Denver may be better suited to take the passes in the flats and sidelines, which lately has been what N.E. has let teams have. The sooner Denver figures this out the better off they will be.4) Avoid anymore injuries. The Pats have had so many injuries on defense that a couple more will leave them wafer thin and their replacements can be exploited. A physical game clearly goes against the Patriots, although they need to play big without getting hurt.5) Bait the Broncos into thinking that they can have some of the same plays and turf in the passing game all day long and then take it away (like they did in the INT TD againt the Jags). Coach B is a master chess player, and while many have reflected on the Broncos being the team with a huge turnover advantage, I suspect that the Pats will be the ones that force more turnovers.Overall, I think the Pats are quite content to keep the score down, take time off of the clock, and let Denver try to do too much. We may very well see a low scoring game early on and a shootout in the second half (like Pats/Panthers in the Super Bowl). I really, really doubt that the Patriots will go full throttle and try to get a big lead and risk turning the ball over. This time around, I doubt eaither team will ever get up by more than 10 points and the team leading could swing from possession to possession.Bottom line for me is that Brady will outperform Plummer in the 4th quarter and the Pats sneak out with another close win on yet another contribution from Vinatieri near the end, although this time I think the Pats defense will have to hold on the Broncos last possession to close it out. IMO, whoever scores last will win.

 

[Bad_Mo]

Lifelong Pats fan here. Didn't just jump on the wagon when they met GB in the SB. Had to endure tough times with Grogan, Eason, Flutie ( ), etc. Glad to see them playing this well over the last 5 years. As far as the Denver game, I'm about as concerned as I was for the JAX game. I didn't think we'd run over JAX nor do I think that is the case this week. Denver's defense is much improved from previous years and, despite the fact that Rod Smith is like 64 years old, the guy always seems to have big games against the Pats (just like Eric Moulds).The Broncos will be able to put up some yards on the ground because that is what they do best. The Pats run D is much improved from earlier in the year, thanks to Seymour, Bruschi, Colvin and McGinest, but I see Denver still being able to move the ball effectively against them. I just hope the Pats don't give up big plays.If the Pats can force Plummer to beat them, they need to gameplan more effectively against his roll outs. This year, Plummer looks much better at completing passes (longer passes) when he rolls out. The Pats got burned last game by a few long completions. Hopefully, they'll force Plummer to sit in the pocket and bring the pressure they brought last week.I think the Pats will prevail, thanks to Brady & Co. and solid play from the defense. However, I see it being a closer game than the score will reflect.Pats 30, Broncos 17

 

[P Boy]

The TE/middle of the field seems the least of DEN's worry. DEN has faced the best TEs in the NFL this year - Gonzo twice, Gates twice, Shockey, & Witten. They use S Sam Brandon in a "big nickel" to cover TEs and have been very successful overall. I would expect to see a lot of Brandon & tweaked CB Darrent Williams rotating into nickel coverage, as I don't think NE's running game scares the DEN front 7 much (or front 6, if in nickel coverage). The LBs are fast enough and solid enough in coverage to contain NE's RBs out of the backfield.

 

[Kit Fisto]

Nice to see everyone with their grown up pants on today. It's refreshing.

 

[Broncoholic]

Although, I'm an obvious Bronco fan. I see these teams as pretty well matched up.I believe the difference is in the fact that Shanahan had 2 weeks to prepare his very healthy Bronco team for the 1st playoff game in Invesco. While the Patriots are coming into very hostile territory.The weather should be very nice (for a night game in January) which will mean the crowd will have a lot of parking lot time to "prepare" for the game.For me the deciding factor will be the 12th man.I will be at the game and can't speak for the entire crowd, but section 123...will be CRAZY!I can't even sit still waiting around for this game.

 

[pizzatyme]

I wanted to add my reply before reading past the first post...I think that as great as this game may be, I would not bet against the Pats. I am hoping that the Broncos win, but I could see it going either way.Broncos have definitely had the better year. Pats are white-hot at the right time of the year.Turnovers will decide IMHO. Whoever wins the TO advantage, comes to Indy.(hopefully)As much as I want the Colts to beat the Pats on their way to a Superbowl victory, I am also verrry worried about that game for the obvious reasons of years gone by.Broncos-34Patriots-31

 

[Spanky24]

Although, I'm an obvious Bronco fan. I see these teams as pretty well matched up.

I believe the difference is in the fact that Shanahan had 2 weeks to prepare his very healthy Bronco team for the 1st playoff game in Invesco. While the Patriots are coming into very hostile territory.

The weather should be very nice (for a night game in January) which will mean the crowd will have a lot of parking lot time to "prepare" for the game.

For me the deciding factor will be the 12th man.

I will be at the game and can't speak for the entire crowd, but section 123...will be CRAZY!

I can't even sit still waiting around for this game.

Die hard Bronco fan and I just have to say I am so envious it's not even funny. I'd give anything to be able to attend this game. Should be a great game!

 

[Spike]

Barring significant injuries to important players (on either team), I'd say that the key player is Jake Plummer.If Plummer plays well AND has no turnovers, the Broncos will be tough to beat. If the Pats defensive line pressures him into turnovers, it could get ugly because (IIRC) Jake can spiral out of control pretty quickly. Yes, that was his MO in the past and he might not be "that guy" any more.But I still figure he's the key guy in the game.

 

[Spike]

I think you've got two very well matched teams, but as I've stated before I think DEN is the better team of the two THIS SEASON, they're playing at home, and they're coming off a bye.  That ought to provide a distinct advantage.  I also think only a fool would disregard NE's recent playoff history and that they have gotten healthier & stronger towards the end of the season.

I have no problem with debate about who will win, or for Pats' fans to think that their team is better & has some kind of edge.  It's the "DEN has no chance" crowd that rankles me.  NE, to the contrary of some very peculiar opinions at this board & elsewhere, does not have some kind of inalienable & divine claim on the Lombardi trophy every year.

Well, Pony, the thing that rankles me about your posts is that you've never been bashful for calling out the New England fanbase, yet here you are being a "whiny tool" about the "disrespect" people are giving your Denver team.

Is there some invisitext that I'm not seeing? Where is Pony being a whiny tool?

 

[Patriotsfatboy1]

As an obvious Patriots fan, I had Denver as a 6.5 point favorite going in. Homefield and a strong running game is critical in the playoffs. However, here are the keys to the game:- If Denver can run the ball like they have been all season, then they will win. It will allow Denver to use play action when they want. If the Pats play the run as tough as they have been lately (against weaker running teams), they will be in good shape- Bruschi and Dillon need to make contributions. The ILB position will be important in stopping Anderson and Bell. A missed tackle turns a 2 yard gain into a 5 yard gain. That is the difference between winning and losing in this game. Dillon will need to be able to establish the run for the Pats. Brady is not as effective without play action especially in the red zone.- Most importantly, turnovers will be the biggest factor. Denver has been a huge plus in TO margin in home games this year. The Patriots have a huge TO margin in their 10 straight playoff wins.HTH

 

[SSOG]

Well, Pony, the thing that rankles me about your posts is that you've never been bashful for calling out the New England fanbase, yet here you are being a "whiny tool" about the "disrespect" people are giving your Denver team.

If you'll review some of my posts in the past few years, you'd realize that I might be one of the harshest critics of DEN here.

I hated their draft & FA moves in the offseason before this year, though I've been predominantly proven wrong about them (still laughing about drafting Clarett, though). Shanahan & the players proved a lot of my early criticsim to be wrong. I'll admit that.

I'll back this up. There have been times when I suspected that Pony was one of those crazy fans who bashes every single move his team makes, as if they can do no right. He's since proven me wrong, but he does tend to be overly critical of Denver when he gets the chance. Which is a nice balance, since I am well aware that I am frequently UNDERly critical.And yes, I know that underly is not really a word. But it should be.

2005 Schedule

Date Opponent Time/Result

Sep 11 @Miami Lost 10-34 (Got handled by a good Run D)

Sep 18 San Diego Won 20-17 (Division game imagined a split)

Sep 26 Kansas City Won 30-10 (Ditto)

Oct 2 @Jacksonville Won 20-7 (Good D but not unbeatable)

Oct 9 Washington Won 21-19 (Same as above)

Oct 16 New England Won 28-20 (Played a great game versus a beat up D)

Oct 23 @N.Y. Giants Lost 23-24 (This game should have been a W in my eyes no excuse here)

Oct 30 Philadelphia Won 49-21 (Philly's D was a no show here)

Nov 13 @Oakland Won 31-17 (Oaktown was a joke in 2005)

Nov 20 N.Y. Jets Won 27-0 (Everyone beat the JETS)

Nov 24 @Dallas Won 24-21 (Good game here by DEN)

Dec 4 @Kansas City Lost 27-31 (See above - Split)

Dec 11 Baltimore Won 12-10 (Tuff battle here)

Dec 17 @Buffalo Won 28-17 (How did you let BUF score 17???)

Dec 24 Oakland Won 22-3 (Only team they should have swept in 2005)

Dec 31 @San Diego Won 23-7 (Doesn't count in my eyes)

The only games that stand out as Quality Wins are DAL and PHI. This wasn't the hardest schedule. I'm not implying the NE schedule was harder just that DEN hasn't been thru the ringer with a tuff one in 2005 (they were 3-1 vs playoff teams).

I beleive the numbers on schedule was

DEN .500

NE .508

My other thought is the Belichick usually has very good luck vs a team he has faced during the season and even better when the first game was a loss. Just my 2 cents.

Here's the problem with strength of schedule- it's not a very good measurement of the strength of a team's schedule. A team will play 16 games over the course of the season, against teams that played a combined 256 games. The outcome of those 16 games counts for 6.25% in the strength of schedule calculation.Here's an example: Let's say that there is a team, Team A, whose opponents when 120-120 in the 240 games NOT against Team A. Now, if Team A goes 0-16 against that schedule, its SOS comes out to .531. If it goes 16-0 against that schedule, its SOS comes out to .469. One SOS looks brutally tough, and the other looks horribly easy, despite the fact that both were against the exact same 16 teams.

A better measure of a team's schedule is to look at the winning percentage of its opponents in games NOT AGAINST THAT TEAM. For instance, Denver's opponents combined to go 128-128, but 13 of those losses and 3 of those wins were against Denver... so if you take out those games, Denver's opponents went 125-115 (good for a .521 winning clip, and the third toughest adjusted schedule in the league).

Denver also faced the most winning squads of any team in the country, and won an NFL-best 7 games (the most wins against winning franchises, and the second best winning percentage, behind only Indy).

Denver faced a very tough schedule this season. I'm not saying that New England's schedule WASN'T tough- because it was- simply that Denver faced one of the 5 toughest schedules in the entire NFL.

Anybody quick with stats? What's the difference in turnover ratio between the Broncos and Patriots.

Most Patriots fans make the case that their season-long numbers are not representative of their abilities, and I think that's a fair point, so I can't give you any reliable numbers for New England. I *can* tell you that Denver has only lost the turnover battle once all season.

Huge Pats fan here really considering putting some dough down on Denver -3.5...

Never bet on your own team... but if you are going to bet, bet AGAINST your team, so if you wind up losing the bet, at least you can console yourself with the fact that your team won.Now, with regards to the Patriots... I certainly think they have a very good chance of winning in Denver, and Vegas agrees. Typically, a 3 point underdog wins about 33% of the time, and even a 7 point underdog wins 25% of the time. Really, while Denver has all the stats going in its favor, this game is going to come down to who executes better, and the Patriots do have a demonstrable history of executing. As a Denver fan, I would rather face Carolina, Washington, or Chicago than New England... but this is the AFC. Part of the price to pay for playing in the better conference is knowing that you're going up against tougher competition. Whoever wins this game will know that they EARNED that win against some of the best competition the NFL has to offer.

 

[ffldrew]

SSOG a question

Now, with regards to the Patriots... I certainly think they have a very good chance of winning in Denver, and Vegas agrees. Typically, a 3 point underdog wins about 33% of the time, and even a 7 point underdog wins 25% of the time Really, while Denver has all the stats going in its favor, this game is going to come down to who executes better, and the Patriots do have a demonstrable history of executing. As a Denver fan, I would rather face Carolina, Washington, or Chicago than New England... but this is the AFC. Part of the price to pay for playing in the better conference is knowing that you're going up against tougher competition. Whoever wins this game will know that they EARNED that win against some of the best competition the NFL has to offer.

Is a "win" in this stat against the spread or winning the game? If it is winning the game that seems high - where do you get that info? Just curious.Thanks.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG a question

Now, with regards to the Patriots... I certainly think they have a very good chance of winning in Denver, and Vegas agrees. Typically, a 3 point underdog wins about 33% of the time, and even a 7 point underdog wins 25% of the time Really, while Denver has all the stats going in its favor, this game is going to come down to who executes better, and the Patriots do have a demonstrable history of executing. As a Denver fan, I would rather face Carolina, Washington, or Chicago than New England... but this is the AFC. Part of the price to pay for playing in the better conference is knowing that you're going up against tougher competition. Whoever wins this game will know that they EARNED that win against some of the best competition the NFL has to offer.

Is a "win" in this stat against the spread or winning the game? If it is winning the game that seems high - where do you get that info? Just curious.Thanks.

It's not against the spread. Vegas sets the spread so that teams (theoretically) have a 50% chance of winning against the spread.Still, looking back historically, a 3-point underdog wins OUTRIGHT about 33% of the time, and a 7-point underdog wins outright about 25% of the time. I only know this because I heard a gambler discussing it on the radio when talking about the Texas-USC matchup. He said that the national media was giving Texas a 0% chance of winning, but Vegas had the line at USC -7, which usually means that the underdog has about a 25% chance of winning.

Does it really seem that high, though? Look at the "expert" game predictions. They usually correctly predict the winners of 60% of the games, and that's without a spread! Underdogs win a ton in football. Which is why New England still has hope this week.

 

[thesurfshop19]

I don't like some of the threads that are coming up on the board, so I'm bumping this in hopes that we can get back to rational discussion of the game.I think Broncos fans and Patriots fans can agree on the following:1. The Broncos are better on paper and have home field on their side.2. The Patriots have a lot of momentum and history on their side.3. The Patriots have to play better to beat Denver than they did last week.4. The Patriots probably will play better against Denver than they did against Jacksonville.5. If Jake Plummer has a great, mistake-free game, the Broncos probably win.6. If the Patriots defense can force turnovers as they have in the past, the Patriots probably win.

 

[Kit Fisto]

I don't like some of the threads that are coming up on the board, so I'm bumping this in hopes that we can get back to rational discussion of the game.

I think Broncos fans and Patriots fans can agree on the following:

1. The Broncos are better on paper and have home field on their side. agreed

2. The Patriots have a lot of momentum and history on their side. agreed

3. The Patriots have to play better to beat Denver than they did last week. agreed

4. The Patriots probably will play better against Denver than they did against Jacksonville. agreed

5. If Jake Plummer has a great, mistake-free game, the Broncos probably win. agreed

6. If the Patriots defense can force turnovers as they have in the past, the Patriots probably win. agreed

Surf, this is the best post of yours to date regarding this game.Don't the posters who start anti-Patriots threads realize the irony of their own words? Coming in here and whining about the Patriots and Patriots fans is being whiney themselves.

 

[moleculo]

I don't like some of the threads that are coming up on the board, so I'm bumping this in hopes that we can get back to rational discussion of the game.

I think Broncos fans and Patriots fans can agree on the following:

1. The Broncos are better on paper and have home field on their side.

2. The Patriots have a lot of momentum and history on their side.

3. The Patriots have to play better to beat Denver than they did last week.

4. The Patriots probably will play better against Denver than they did against Jacksonville.

5. If Jake Plummer has a great, mistake-free game, the Broncos probably win.

6. If the Patriots defense can force turnovers as they have in the past, the Patriots probably win.

7. It is more likely that Brady can engineer a 4th quarter game winnng drive than Plummer.

 

[thesurfshop19]

7. It is more likely that Brady can engineer a 4th quarter game winnng drive than Plummer.

Agreed. Although Jake's no slouch there, either. I've been impressed with him the last 3 years, to be honest; he's not quite Elway but very few players are. And if you get rid of him, where do you go, right?

 

[BGP]

I'd like to know why it seems like the same people who talk about how class is so important in sports are usually the same people who are the first to launch personal insults at and generally mock fellow posters (I'm not saying surfshop is one of these people, but its been my impression). You would think that, if class is so important, that:a. more posters would do their part to act classy on the forumsandb. more posters would have low-tolerance for personal attacks of fellow posters on these forums.You disagree with someone and you think he's an idiot. Keep the idiot comment to yourself.A national example is Jim Rome. Here is a guy that talks about class in sports all the time. He always blasts athletes for not acting classy. And yet he built his base on O.J. Simpson jokes and pretty much fills every show with pesonal insults.

 

[thesurfshop19]

I'd like to know why it seems like the same people who talk about how class is so important in sports are usually the same people who are the first to launch personal insults at and generally mock fellow posters (I'm not saying surfshop is one of these people, but its been my impression). You would think that, if class is so important, that:

a. more posters would do their part to act classy on the forums

and

b. more posters would have low-tolerance for personal attacks of fellow posters on these forums.

You disagree with someone and you think he's an idiot. Keep the idiot comment to yourself.

A national example is Jim Rome. Here is a guy that talks about class in sports all the time. He always blasts athletes for not acting classy. And yet he built his base on O.J. Simpson jokes and pretty much fills every show with pesonal insults.

I definitely think you have a good point in here. But I don't think most people would equate Jim Rome with class in the first place. I do think it's hypocritical that people who launch personal attacks would be outraged by, say, Terrell Owens's behavior.It's definitely harder to sit back and turn the microscope back around on yourself. I'm guilty of it just as much as anyone.

The point of this thread isn't so much about "class", but more just to discuss the game without getting personal. Both the Patriots and Broncos have passionate fans, so I didn't want this to come down to a "Tuck rule" "Cut blocks" "Whiny tool" "Cheated salary cap" back-and-forth.

On the whole I am amazed by a lot of the insight people have come up with in here (far more than I could have come up with!), and I couldn't be more ready for tomorrow's game!

 

[nerangers]

Sorry, using a post I did in another thread...but slightly edited.

As a Patriots fan, I do not view the Broncos as a push over by any stretch of the imagination. I think the Broncos and the Pats are pretty much evenly matched. I think the Broncos have the advantage being at home...hence the home game streak record. The Broncos are rested and primed to win this game...everything should be in there favor. The Bronco fans should feel good right now.But the game will be played on the grid iron and not on paper...by two good teams...and it will not be a blow out. You can't fault Patriot fans for rallying behind there team, the same way you are rallying behind the Broncos. Three out of four teams won on the road this past weekend...so home field is not a guarantee win. Sorry if you feel the Patriots fans are not respecting the home field streak. I am sure the Patriots are...and they are well aware that they are 1-3 against the Broncos.As for which streak was harder, I think the Patriots winning 10 playoff games in a row. Some were on the road, as well, so they can win away from New England.SSOG, it is going to be a great team...I wish you and your team all the best. At the end of the night, win or lose, a great team will be going on to the AFC Championship game.

 

[thesurfshop19]

Well, after the game, I must say that, honestly, I'm kind of sad to see the Patriots' run come to an end.I'm a little disappointed that the Pats turned the ball over so much; much like the 1998/9 AFC Championship game (Belichick and Shanahan's last postseason matchup), the Broncos were pretty much outplayed on both sides of the ball but got some breaks (PI call, fumbles) and capitalized on them.That said, the Broncos took out a great team and I'm just happy about that. Go Steelers (today only)!

 

[Ghost Rider]

I'm a little disappointed that the Pats turned the ball over so much; much like the 1998/9 AFC Championship game (Belichick and Shanahan's last postseason matchup), the Broncos were pretty much outplayed on both sides of the ball but got some breaks (PI call, fumbles) and capitalized on them.

First off, the Broncos were not outplayed by the Jets back in the '99 AFC title game. How can you possibly say that? And they weren't outplayed last night, either. Total yardage does not always tell the story. Saying the Broncos were outplayed last night is like saying the Rams outplayed the Patriots in Super Bowl 36 (since their edge in total yardage was similar to NE's last night). Turnovers are part of the game and when one team turns it over five times and the other turns it over only one time, it seems absurd to me to say the team that turned it over five times outplayed the team that turned it over once. Points are what count the most. The Broncos scored 27. The Patriots scored 13. End of story.

 

[SoloMatisse]

Ive enjoyed bantering this week with Broncos fans and anyone not giving NE a chance, and though dissapointed with the Pats' loss, Ive got nothing but respect for Denver and its fans. You Bronco backers went to bat bigtime for your boys and deserve the riches that come along with a tremendous win. To the victors go the spoils, so soak it in for a couple of days and then get back right on that drum and beat it long and loud. Good luck.

 

[moleculo]

I'm a little disappointed that the Pats turned the ball over so much; much like the 1998/9 AFC Championship game (Belichick and Shanahan's last postseason matchup), the Broncos were pretty much outplayed on both sides of the ball but got some breaks (PI call, fumbles) and capitalized on them.

First off, the Broncos were not outplayed by the Jets back in the '99 AFC title game. How can you possibly say that? And they weren't outplayed last night, either. Total yardage does not always tell the story. Saying the Broncos were outplayed last night is like saying the Rams outplayed the Patriots in Super Bowl 36 (since their edge in total yardage was similar to NE's last night). Turnovers are part of the game and when one team turns it over five times and the other turns it over only one time, it seems absurd to me to say the team that turned it over five times outplayed the team that turned it over once. Points are what count the most. The Broncos scored 27. The Patriots scored 13. End of story.

Yards can be a function of field position. Broncos had two one yard drives - both ended up w/ TD's, but will hurt you from the ovrall yardage battle. A team that has outplayed another team does not lose turnover battle (as mentioned above), but also does not loose penalty battle - 8 penalties for 104 yards vs 4 for 24 yards.