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*** Denver vs Pittsburgh *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter thatguy
- Start date
As the Steeler D kept Peyton in check most of the game, they'll take care of Jake.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Den -3. No, w/ the altitude -4. Just enough to make the Steelers road dogs again. Exactly what they need. Bettis wins the SB in his home town in the last game of his career. Rides off into the sunset! 
SSOG
Moderator
Hey, everyone knows that the Broncos hold a monopoly on fairy-tale career endings. John Elway is the only player to win the SB MVP in his final game, and Denver's going to protect that legacy at home this weekend.Den -3. No, w/ the altitude -4. Just enough to make the Steelers road dogs again. Exactly what they need. Bettis wins the SB in his home town in the last game of his career. Rides off into the sunset!
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Time to share the wealth. Besides, your team isn't the only one. I think Gruden beating the Raiders the year Davis dumped him was worth honorable mention.Hey, everyone knows that the Broncos hold a monopoly on fairy-tale career endings. John Elway is the only player to win the SB MVP in his final game, and Denver's going to protect that legacy at home this weekend.Den -3. No, w/ the altitude -4. Just enough to make the Steelers road dogs again. Exactly what they need. Bettis wins the SB in his home town in the last game of his career. Rides off into the sunset!
Here is a link to the thread where I review this year's playoff clubs and go into more detail about what these numbers mean:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...opic=213704&hl=
"magic number" rankings:
Broncos (7th offense, 4th defense) 7+7 = 14
Steelers (9th offense, 3rd defense) 11+9 = 20
Efficiencies:
den 14.90 O, 18.40 D
pit 14.36 O, 16.52 D
Comments:
The efficiences can take on a strong meaning when we reach the level of conference title games. If one club is more efficient than the other on both sides of the ball in this round or in the super bowl, they are 19-2 since 1990. However, the efficiencies are split this time around. The Broncos are better on defense but its the Steelers who are better on offense. Teams better on offense are 22-8 in the last 30 conference title games. They were 17-3 in the 1990s, but only 5-5 this decade. Teams better on defense are 19-11 in the last 30 conference title games. They were only 11-9 in the 1990s, but are 8-2 this decade. Like I say, offense won championships in the 1990s, but it seems to have swung to the defense this decade.
Looking at this, I would pick the Broncos to win the game but its not a lock.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...opic=213704&hl=
"magic number" rankings:
Broncos (7th offense, 4th defense) 7+7 = 14
Steelers (9th offense, 3rd defense) 11+9 = 20
Efficiencies:
den 14.90 O, 18.40 D
pit 14.36 O, 16.52 D
Comments:
The efficiences can take on a strong meaning when we reach the level of conference title games. If one club is more efficient than the other on both sides of the ball in this round or in the super bowl, they are 19-2 since 1990. However, the efficiencies are split this time around. The Broncos are better on defense but its the Steelers who are better on offense. Teams better on offense are 22-8 in the last 30 conference title games. They were 17-3 in the 1990s, but only 5-5 this decade. Teams better on defense are 19-11 in the last 30 conference title games. They were only 11-9 in the 1990s, but are 8-2 this decade. Like I say, offense won championships in the 1990s, but it seems to have swung to the defense this decade.
Looking at this, I would pick the Broncos to win the game but its not a lock.
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Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
Imagine BGP picking against the Steelers. BGP, what's your opinion of Roethlisberger now? Is his job safe after that INT today?
MustBeNewHere
Footballguy
I have no bias against or for either team but for some reason I find myself hoping the Broncos stomp a hole in Steelers ### (seriously no clue why). Also, the Steelers have beaten two teams they shouldn't have IMHO. I'd say Denver 21 Stillers 3. In the midst of this game let's just hope Ben's knee comes out unshredded. If I had any rooting interest in this game whatsoever, that would be it.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Well, we know that the Steelers won't be intimidated going into Denver, and we know that the defense is good enough to give Denver problems. Given the strength of Denver's run defense, it's likely going to take another big effort by Roethlisberger early in the game to loosen things up. Right now, the Steelers are playing by FAR their best football of the season, and they're going to give Denver all they can handle. It's going to be tough to pull out another tough road win, that's for sure. Steelers 23, Denver 17
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
If I'm not mistaken the last road team to beat Denver in the playoffs was the Steelers led by Merril Hoge in 1984.
Good discussion in the posts so far. This is the game I've been wanting to see. A very even match up between the two best teams in the AFC in my opinion except for one huge fact: The game is in Denver. I'm not saying the Steelers will be intimidated. In fact, they are a great road team. Although it hasn't been said too much this year, Invesco Field at Mile High is the biggest home field advantage in the league. Incredible fans, 9-0 home record, and thin air. There's a reason why so many Olympic athletes train in the Rockies. The Bus is gonna need oxygen by the time he walks out of the airport. It's tough up there. Again, both are the best in the AFC and we finally get some smashmouth, pound the rock football without hearing about Brady, Manning, Bruschi or Belichick.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Good stuff BGP. Thanks.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
I think it will be a good game, but the difference will be--Denver's ability to get Jake out of the pocket and his ability to scramble.Today Manning just sat back there and tried to make a play--he was no threat to run and Pitt just swarmed.Lynch will be in Ben's face all day and Champ will shut down Ward. Denver 24Pitt 13
Jimmy James
Footballguy
Mile High is worth -5, so that's what I think the line will be (Denver -5). Pittsburgh is way hot, but I'm a big believer of January in Denver. The Steelers will really impress me if they beat the Broncos, and I say that as a Dolphins fan who still hates the Broncos a little bit for the way they ruined our 2002 season.
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KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
I really have no idea what to think about this game. Denver's chances of making the SB just increased exponentially with not having to travel to Indy. 
I'm taking Pitt and the points on this one.
I'm taking Pitt and the points on this one.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I'd love to see what your Steelers numbers would be if you only used Roethlisberger's games instead of the 4 games he missed.How the offense (and consequently the defense) played with Maddox and Batch have nothing to do with how they do with Roethlisberger.
BGP, good numbers and research. I'd like to see how this applies to home vs. road games. I would also suggest applying it to seed rankings, but this is the first time a 6th seed has made the conference championship game. Right now, with the numbers being fairly close, I have to think Denver's home field advantage could be huge. However, your numbers might prove otherwise.
Stillers Jr.
Footballguy
I will gladly take those points...
DoctorDetroit
Chocolate Thunder
Both my books have it at 3. I already threw down 2 units on the Broncos.
Stillers Jr.
Footballguy
You are shrewd, very shrewd.
DoctorDetroit
Chocolate Thunder
I'm also neutral and able to reason.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I could be wrong but I like the Steelers. If Denver can't run they are very uneffective. I don't think they'll be able to run on the Steelers. I still don't think Denver beats NE without some freak turnovers. Give me Pitt and the points all day long.
Stillers Jr.
Footballguy
It's your $$...
millerarm
Footballguy
Call me crazy, but I think PIT's D is superior to DEN's right now. I also think Roth is better than Plummer currently. Denver showed me nothing on offense yesterday. They won because of two NE fumbles in like 20 seconds. Sure it's in DEN, but I say PIT wins this one.
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Broncos have had problems running against the 3-4 this year.
week 6 vs jax: offense: 218 yards, 17 points
defense: 246 yards, 23 points
week 9 @ gnb:
offense: 213 yards, 20 points
defense: 268 yards, 10 points
week 10 vs cle:
offense: 382 yards, 34 points
defense: 303 yards, 21 points
week 11 @ bal:
offense: 282 yards, 13 points
defense: 241 yards, 16 points
offense totals: 1095 yards for 84 points or 13.04 YPP
defense totals: 1058 yards for 70 points or 15.11 YPP
season totals:
offense: 14.36
defense: 16.52
The Steelers offense is certainly efficient. But it was even more efficient in the four games without him. 13.04 in fact is extremely good. However, the Steelers' defense/special teams scored twice in those 4 games. Take away those TDs and their offensive YPP without Ben jumps to 15.64. Oddly enough, those appear to be the only D/ST scores by the Steelers this season. Neither score was within the margin of victory. Why don't I remove D/ST scores when compiling efficiencies? Because even with them, teams better on both sides of the ball are 19-2 in conference title games / super bowls since 1990.
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Steel City
Footballguy
The Stadium is a mile high. Rarified air. I believe it is a special HFA for that reason. I remember even in the late 1980s when the Browns had to play them or even other clubs, how difficult it was to go there and win. They always seemed to cause more turnovers at home, like the visiting club wasn't used to the lack of oxygen and couldn't hold onto the ball or something.
I have never witnessed a more dramatic and consistent change in the play of a QB from one year to the next than in Jake Plummer's play this year. I know many will still think the Old Jake will show up after 17 games, but I think we throw his previous year's play out the window. Very solid this year with only 7 regular season INTs and only one against the Patriots in last night's game. Let's look at this year's turnover ratios?As for the 3-4, it has been tougher but the Broncos have broke a few runs off when needed and finished out games. They have consistently won against the 3-4.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
No matter what happens, some of the haters (Shanahan cant win without Elway, Cowher can't win the AFCGC) will have to be quiet please.Looking forward to next weekend!
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
The air is really not that thin. It doesn't make much of a difference. The reason the Browns couldn't win was becasue they were the Browns.The Stadium is a mile high. Rarified air. I believe it is a special HFA for that reason. I remember even in the late 1980s when the Browns had to play them or even other clubs, how difficult it was to go there and win. They always seemed to cause more turnovers at home, like the visiting club wasn't used to the lack of oxygen and couldn't hold onto the ball or something.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
The air is really not that thin. It doesn't make much of a difference. The reason the Browns couldn't win was because they were the Browns.The Stadium is a mile high. Rarified air. I believe it is a special HFA for that reason. I remember even in the late 1980s when the Browns had to play them or even other clubs, how difficult it was to go there and win. They always seemed to cause more turnovers at home, like the visiting club wasn't used to the lack of oxygen and couldn't hold onto the ball or something.
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
Didn't seem to bother Mark Malone, Frank Pollard and Weegie Thompson in the 84 playoffs. Then again they didn't play for the Browns.The Stadium is a mile high. Rarified air. I believe it is a special HFA for that reason. I remember even in the late 1980s when the Browns had to play them or even other clubs, how difficult it was to go there and win. They always seemed to cause more turnovers at home, like the visiting club wasn't used to the lack of oxygen and couldn't hold onto the ball or something.
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Stillers Jr.
Footballguy
How was the Steelers run game this week?
