Denver is not going to lose many shootouts. Name the teams with dominant defenses and solid offenses for me, can't be many but that type of team would give Denver more trouble than others.
You have to stop the Denver offense before you can think about beating them. You are not going to win a track meet with Manning, Dallas proved it.
Denver has not faced a legit defense this season. As someone pointed out, look at the 2007 Pats. This all looks very familiar. I can easily see the Patriots defense shutting down Manning and making him throw an untimely pick. Just look at his track record against Brady and BB. This Broncos team reminds me a lot of the 2011 Packers. They put up 40pts a game yet couldn't stop anyone. And lost to an absolutely terrible Chiefs team, which I can see happening to the Broncos this Sunday against the Jags.
I'd almost hate to be a Broncos fan this season. Your team will most likely finish 13-3 or 14-2, yet Forehead will choke as usual in the playoffs when it matters the most. And most likely to a team that no one thinks has a shot.